National Academies Press: OpenBook
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS

A Science for a Technological Society

Committee on a Decadal Strategy for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics)

Space Studies Board

Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL

                     OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS   500 Fifth Street, NW   Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study is based on work supported by Contract NNH06CE15B between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Grant AGS-1050550 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agencies that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-3: 978-0-309-16428-3
International Standard Book Number-0: 0-309-16428-1
Library of Congress Control Number: 2013940083

Cover: Insets, from the top: Solar Dynamics Observatory, full-disk multiwavelength extreme ultraviolet image of the Sun (NASA/GSFC/AIA); depiction of a coronal mass ejection and Earth's magnetosphere (Steele Hill/NASA); Advanced Modular Incoherent Scatter Radars at Resolute Bay (Craig Heinselman, EISCAT); ultraviolet image of the southern polar region of Saturn with its aurora (here shown inverted) from the Hubble Space Telescope (NASA/ESA/J. Clarke, Boston University/Z. Levay, STScI); depiction of the regions of the heliosphere (NASA); and bow shock around the star LL Orionis (NASA, ESA, and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA). Background images: View from the International Space Station of the Midwestern United States and the aurora borealis (NASA).

Copies of this report are available free of charge from:

Space Studies Board
National Research Council
500 Fifth Street, NW
Washington, DC 20001

Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-242 or (202) 334-3133; http://www.nap.edu.

Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.nationalacademies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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OTHER RECENT REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD AND THE AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD

Assessment of a Plan for U.S. Participation in Euclid (Board on Physics and Astronomy [BPA] with Space Studies Board [SSB], 2012)

Assessment of Planetary Protection Requirements for Spacecraft Missions to Icy Solar System Bodies (SSB, 2012)

Continuing Kepler’s Quest: Assessing Air Force Space Command’s Astrodynamics Standards (Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board [ASEB], 2012)

Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Midterm Assessment of NASA’s Implementation of the Decadal Survey (SSB, 2012)

The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate: A Workshop Report (SSB, 2012)

NASA Space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities: Restoring NASA’s Technological Edge and Paving the Way for a New Era in Space (ASEB, 2012)

NASA’s Strategic Direction and the Need for a National Consensus (Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, 2012)

Recapturing NASA’s Aeronautics Flight Research Capabilities (ASEB, 2012)

Report of the Panel on Implementing Recommendations from the New Worlds, New Horizons Decadal Survey (BPA and SSB, 2012)

Reusable Booster System: Review and Assessment (ASEB, 2012) Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation (SSB, 2012)

Assessment of Impediments to Interagency Collaboration on Space and Earth Science Missions (SSB, 2011)

An Interim Report on NASA’s Draft Space Technology Roadmaps (ASEB, 2011)

Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: An Assessment of NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs (ASEB, 2011)

Panel Reports—New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (BPA and SSB, 2011)

Preparing for the High Frontier—the Role and Training of NASA Astronauts in the Post-Space Shuttle Era (ASEB, 2011)

Recapturing a Future for Space Exploration: Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era (SSB with ASEB, 2011)

Sharing the Adventure with the Public—The Value and Excitement of “Grand Questions” of Space Science and Exploration: Summary of a Workshop (SSB, 2011)

Summary of the Workshop to Identify Gaps and Possible Directions for NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs (ASEB, 2011)

Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022 (SSB, 2011)

Advancing Aeronautical Safety: A Review of NASA’s Aviation Safety-Related Research Programs (ASEB, 2010)

Capabilities for the Future: An Assessment of NASA Laboratories for Basic Research (Laboratory Assessments Board with SSB and ASEB, 2010)

Controlling Cost Growth of NASA Earth and Space Science Missions (SSB, 2010)

Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth-Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies (SSB with ASEB, 2010)

An Enabling Foundation for NASA’s Space and Earth Science Missions (SSB, 2010)

Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era of Space Exploration: An Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2010)

New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (BPA and SSB, 2010)

Revitalizing NASA’s Suborbital Program: Advancing Science, Driving Innovation, and Developing a Workforce (SSB, 2010)

Limited copies of SSB reports are available free of charge from

Space Studies Board
National Research Council
The Keck Center of the National Academies
500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001
(202) 334-4777/ssb@nas.edu
www.nationalacademies.org/ssb/ssb.html

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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COMMITTEE ON A DECADAL STRATEGY FOR SOLAR AND SPACE PHYSICS (HELIOPHYSICS)

DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado, Boulder, Chair

THOMAS H. ZURBUCHEN, University of Michigan, Vice Chair

BRIAN J. ANDERSON, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory

STEVEN J. BATTEL, Battel Engineering

JAMES F. DRAKE, JR., University of Maryland, College Park

LENNARD A. FISK, University of Michigan

MARVIN A. GELLER, Stony Brook University

SARAH GIBSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research

MICHAEL HESSE, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

J. TODD HOEKSEMA,* Stanford University

MARY K. HUDSON,*Dartmouth College

DAVID L. HYSELL, Cornell University

THOMAS J. IMMEL, University of California, Berkeley

JUSTIN KASPER, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

JUDITH L. LEAN, Naval Research Laboratory

RAMON E. LOPEZ, University of Texas, Arlington

HOWARD J. SINGER, NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

HARLAN E. SPENCE, University of New Hampshire

EDWARD C. STONE, California Institute of Technology

________________________

*An asterisk indicates additional service on the survey’s Solar Probe Plus Study Group, which was chaired by Louis J. Lanzerotti, New Jersey Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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PANEL ON ATMOSPHERE-IONOSPHERE-MAGNETOSPHERE INTERACTIONS

JEFFREY M. FORBES, University of Colorado, Boulder, Chair

JAMES H. CLEMMONS, Aerospace Corporation, Vice Chair

ODILE de la BEAUJARDIERE, Air Force Research Laboratory

JOHN V. EVANS, COMSAT Corporation (retired)

RODERICK A. HEELIS,* University of Texas, Dallas

THOMAS J. IMMEL, University of California, Berkeley

JANET U. KOZYRA, University of Michigan

WILLIAM LOTKO, Dartmouth College

GANG LU, High Altitude Observatory

KRISTINA A. LYNCH, Dartmouth College

JENS OBERHEIDE, Clemson University

LARRY J. PAXTON, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory

ROBERT F. PFAFF, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

JOSHUA SEMETER, Boston University

JEFFREY P. THAYER, University of Colorado, Boulder

PANEL ON SOLAR WIND–MAGNETOSPHERE INTERACTIONS

MICHELLE F. THOMSEN, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Chair

MICHAEL WILTBERGER, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Vice Chair

JOSEPH BOROVSKY, Los Alamos National Laboratory

JOSEPH F. FENNELL, Aerospace Corporation

JERRY GOLDSTEIN, Southwest Research Institute

JANET C. GREEN, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

DONALD A. GURNETT, University of Iowa

LYNN M. KISTLER, University of New Hampshire

MICHAEL W. LIEMOHN, University of Michigan

ROBYN MILLAN, Dartmouth College

DONALD G. MITCHELL, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory

TAI D. PHAN, University of California, Berkeley

MICHAEL SHAY, University of Delaware

HARLAN E. SPENCE, University of New Hampshire

RICHARD M. THORNE, University of California, Los Angeles

________________________

*An asterisk indicates additional service on the survey’s Solar Probe Plus Study Group, which was chaired by Louis J. Lanzerotti, New Jersey Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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PANEL ON SOLAR AND HELIOSPHERIC PHYSICS

RICHARD A. MEWALDT, California Institute of Technology, Chair

SPIRO K. ANTIOCHOS,* NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Vice Chair

TIMOTHY S. BASTIAN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory

JOE GIACALONE, University of Arizona

GEORGE M. GLOECKLER,* University of Michigan and University of Maryland (emeritus professor)

JOHN W. HARVEY,* National Solar Observatory

RUSSELL A. HOWARD, Naval Research Laboratory

JUSTIN KASPER, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

ROBERT P. LIN, University of California, Berkeley

GLENN M. MASON, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory

EBERHARD MOEBIUS, University of New Hampshire

MERAV OPHER, Boston University

JESPER SCHOU, Stanford University

NATHAN A. SCHWADRON, Boston University

AMY R. WINEBARGER, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

DANIEL WINTERHALTER, Jet Propulsion Laboratory

THOMAS N. WOODS, University of Colorado, Boulder

STAFF

ARTHUR A. CHARO, Senior Program Officer, Space Studies Board, Study Director

ABIGAIL A. SHEFFER, Associate Program Officer, Space Studies Board

MAUREEN MELLODY, Program Officer, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

LEWIS B. GROSWALD, Research Associate, Space Studies Board

CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Editor, Space Studies Board

DANIELLE PISKORZ, Lloyd V. Berkner Space Policy Intern

LINDA M. WALKER, Senior Program Assistant, Space Studies Board

TERRI BAKER, Senior Program Assistant, Space Studies Board (until April 2012)

BRUNO SÁNCHEZ-ANDRADE NUÑO, National Academies Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellow

HEATHER D. SMITH, National Academies Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellow

MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Space Studies Board, and Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board

________________________

*An asterisk indicates additional service on the survey’s Solar Probe Plus Study Group, which was chaired by Louis J. Lanzerotti, New Jersey Institute of Technology.

Dr. Lin died on November 17, 2012.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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SPACE STUDIES BOARD

CHARLES F. KENNEL, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Chair

JOHN KLINEBERG, Space Systems/Loral (retired), Vice Chair

MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University

JAMES ANDERSON, Harvard University

JAMES BAGIAN, University of Michigan

YVONNE C. BRILL, Aerospace Consultant

ELIZABETH R. CANTWELL, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

ANDREW B. CHRISTENSEN, Dixie State College of Utah

ALAN DRESSLER, The Observatories of the Carnegie Institution

THOMAS R. GAVIN, California Institute of Technology

HEIDI B. HAMMEL, AURA

FIONA A. HARRISON, California Institute of Technology

JOSEPH S. HEZIR, EOP Group, Inc.

ANTHONY C. JANETOS, University of Maryland

JOAN JOHNSON-FREESE, U.S. Naval War College

ROBERT P. LIN, University of California, Berkeley

MOLLY K. MACAULEY, Resources for the Future, Inc.

JOHN F. MUSTARD, Brown University

ROBERT T. PAPPALARDO, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology

MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona

DAVID N. SPERGEL, Princeton University

MEENAKSHI WADHWA, Arizona State University

CLIFFORD M. WILL, Washington University

THOMAS H. ZURBUCHEN, University of Michigan

MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director

CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator

TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations

CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate

CHRISTINA O. SHIPMAN, Financial Officer

SANDRA WILSON, Financial Assistant

________________________

Dr. Brill died on March 27, 2013.

Dr. Lin died on November 17, 2012.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD

LESTER LYLES, The Lyles Group, Chair

AMY L. BUHRIG, Enterprise Technology Strategy, Boeing, Vice Chair

ELLA M. ATKINS, University of Michigan

INDERJIT CHOPRA, University of Maryland, College Park

JOHN-PAUL B. CLARKE, Georgia Institute of Technology

RAVI B. DEO, EMBR

VIJAY DHIR, University of California, Los Angeles

EARL H. DOWELL, Duke University

MICA R. ENDSLEY, SA Technologies

DAVID GOLDSTON, Harvard University

R. JOHN HANSMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JOHN B. HAYHURST, Boeing Company (retired)

WILLIAM L. JOHNSON, California Institute of Technology

RICHARD KOHRS, Independent Consultant

IVETT LEYVA, Air Force Research Laboratory

ELAINE S. ORAN, Naval Research Laboratory

HELEN R. REED, Texas A&M University

ELI RESHOTKO, Case Western Reserve University

EDMOND SOLIDAY, United Airlines (retired)

MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director

CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator

TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations

CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate

CHRISTINA O. SHIPMAN, Financial Officer

SANDRA WILSON, Financial Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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Preface

Strategic planning activities within NASA’s Science Mission Directorate (SMD) and several National Science Foundation (NSF) divisions draw heavily on reports issued by the National Research Council (NRC), particularly those from the Space Studies Board (SSB). Principal among these SSB inputs is identification of priority science and missions and facilities in the decadal science strategy surveys. The first true decadal strategy for the field of solar and space physics, The Sun to the Earth—and Beyond: A Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics, was published in 2003. That comprehensive study reviewed relevant research and applications activities, listed the key science questions, and recommended specific spacecraft missions and ground-based facilities and programs for the period 2003-2012. Supplemented by several subsequent SSB studies—for example, A Performance Assessment of NASA’s Heliophysics Program (2009); Distributed Arrays of Small Instruments for Solar-Terrestrial Research: Report of a Workshop (2006); Plasma Physics of the Local Cosmos (2004); Exploration of the Outer Heliosphere and the Local Interstellar Medium: A Workshop Report (2004); and The Role of Solar and Space Physics in NASA’s Space Exploration Initiative (2004)—the 2003 survey report provided key guidance for the SMD’s solar and space physics (called heliophysics at NASA) programs and NSF’s related atmospheric and geosciences programs during the first decade of the 21st century.

The successful initiation of many of the missions and programs recommended in the preceding studies, combined with important discoveries by a variety of ground- and space-based research activities, demonstrated the need for a second decadal survey of solar and space physics. Thus, in March 2010, Edward J. Weiler, NASA’s associate administrator for the SMD, requested that a new decadal strategy survey be initiated (Appendix A). The request was seconded by the leadership of NSF’s Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences. Specific tasks outlined in the request included the following:

•   An overview of the science and a broad survey of the current state of knowledge in the field, including a discussion of the relationship between space- and ground-based science research and its connection to other scientific areas;

•   Determination of the most compelling science challenges that have arisen from recent advances and accomplishments;

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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•   Identification—having considered scientific value, urgency, cost category and risk, and technical readiness—of the highest-priority science targets for the interval 2013-2022, recommending science objectives and measurement requirements for each target rather than specific mission or project design/ implementation concepts; and

•   Development of an integrated research strategy that will present means to address these targets.

In response to this request, the NRC appointed the 19-member Committee on a Decadal Strategy for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) and 86 additional experts organized into three discipline panels— the Panel on Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Interactions, the Panel on Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Interactions, and the Panel on Solar and Heliospheric Physics—and five informal working groups. The discipline panels were charged with the task of defining the current state of research in their discipline and determining priorities for scientific investigations in those areas. One member of each panel also served on the survey committee as a designated liaison. The working groups—Theory, Modeling, and Data Exploitation; Explorers, Suborbital, and Other Platforms; Innovations: Technology, Instruments, and Data Systems; Research to Operations/Operations to Research; and Education and Workforce—were similarly charged to assess the state of the field in these cross-cutting areas and to determine areas of critical needs. These working groups were composed approximately half by members of the survey committee and panels and half by volunteer consultants. The members of the working groups are listed in the section that follows this preface. In total, the survey committee, discipline panels, and working groups involved 105 members. This effort has been supported by NASA and NSF.

Work on the decadal survey began in August 2010 with preparations for the first meeting of the survey committee in September 2010. The survey committee met to consider the survey charge; to hear from NASA and NSF regarding their expectations for the survey, as well as from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and representatives from previous NRC decadal survey committees; and to determine the set of tasks for the discipline panels and working groups. The survey committee held a total of six meetings (September 1-3, 2010, and in 2011, February 1-3, April 12-14, June 14-16, August 29-21, and November 16-18).

The discipline panels each convened first in November 2010 and held a total of three meetings:

•   Panel on Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Interactions—November 15-17, 2010, January 12-14, 2011, and June 1-3, 2011;

•   Panel on Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Interactions—November 17-19, 2010, January 18-20, 2011, and June 20-21, 2011;

•   Panel on Solar and Heliospheric Physics—November 29-December 1, 2010, January 10-12, 2011, and May 25-27, 2011.

The working groups held one meeting each, with the exception of the Research to Operations/Operations to Research group, which held both a town hall meeting and a follow-up meeting. Each of the five working groups reported its progress during the survey committee meetings and by writing a white paper report to summarize its findings.

One significant difference from the 2003 decadal survey of solar and space physics was the decision to contract with the Aerospace Corporation to perform an independent cost and technical evaluation (CATE) of notional missions. This effort was made to increase the cost realism of notional missions and to facilitate cost comparisons between missions. The survey committee and panels reviewed 288 mission

Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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concept white papers, which were submitted in response to an invitation to the research community.1 The panels mapped concepts against their prioritization of science targets and also considered factors such as technical readiness, scientific impact on particular disciplines, and, in some cases, operational utility. Then the survey committee selected 12 concepts for further study and CATE assessment. At the end of that process, six concepts were chosen for consideration, leading to the survey committee’s recommendations of priorities. The details of this process are described in Appendix E.

In June 2011, NASA requested a clarification of the survey’s scope to explicitly consider the Solar Probe Plus (SPP) mission. Previously, NASA had instructed the committee to assume that SPP and Solar Orbiter, along with missions that were in advanced development, were part of the baseline program and should not be subject to review or prioritization.2 This new request specified that the SPP mission was not to be reprioritized, but that the survey committee should comment on the scientific rationale for the mission in the context of scientific developments since the publication of the 2003 decadal survey. Also, the survey committee was asked to provide appropriate programmatic or cost triggers as part of the anticipated decision rules to guide NASA in the event of major technical, cost, or programmatic changes during the development of SPP.

To address the change in the survey’s scope, the NRC formed a study group specifically tasked to address these questions for the Solar Probe Plus mission. The group was chosen to minimize conflicts of interest while maintaining relevant scientific and technical expertise. The Solar Probe Plus Study Group was led by Louis J. Lanzerotti, New Jersey Institute of Technology, who served as an unpaid consultant to the survey. The remainder of the study group was made up of members of the survey committee and the discipline panels. The study group held one meeting in August 2011 and presented its conclusions in an internal report to the survey committee in October 2011.

The three discipline panels cast their scientific prioritization in the form of discipline goals and priorities, from which they derived more detailed scientific “imperatives” and, finally, implementation scenarios or reference mission concepts. It is important to recognize that panel-specific priorities and recommendations (imperatives) are not equivalent to report recommendations—these can be offered only by the decadal survey committee. The panels’ various scientific inputs, assessments, and priorities for new ground- and space-based initiatives were integrated by the survey committee and an overall prioritization derived. The survey committee’s prioritization of new spacecraft initiatives was heavily influenced by the CATE assessment provided by the Aerospace Corporation.

Chapter 1 of this report discusses the committee’s key science goals for obtaining the necessary scientific knowledge for a society dependent on space, and it outlines the basic strategy that underpins the survey committee’s recommendations for the next decade. Chapter 2 provides a retrospective view of recent notable successes in the field and exemplary achievements during the past decade and the research goals for the several subdisciplines of solar and space physics for the next decade. Chapters 4, 5, and 6 discuss specific implementation plans for a balanced program for NSF and NASA. Finally, Chapter 7 provides the survey committee’s vision for a space weather and space climate program for the nation that could provide the new, integrated capabilities needed to serve the needs of a society ever more reliant on space. Chapter 3 provides an overview of the societal relevance of the field of solar and space physics and addresses the

____________

1 The survey’s website, http://sites.nationalacademies.org/SSB/CurrentProjects/SSB_056864, includes links to the survey’s request for information and to the submissions that were received in response. Appendix I also lists the responses received.

2 As per its charge from NASA, the survey committee did not “grandfather” missions or mission concepts from the previous decadal survey unless they were already in advanced development. In some cases, a concept from the previous survey was reproposed for consideration by the present survey committee (e.g., MagCon); in others, elements of an earlier concept were incorporated into a new proposal.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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current state of efforts to develop a capability to predict harmful space weather events. The recommendations of the survey committee are presented in the Summary and in Chapter 4. These recommendations were informed in part by the detailed analyses provided by the survey’s three discipline study panels, whose work is summarized in Chapters 8, 9, and 10.

The work of the survey could not have been accomplished without the important help given by individuals too numerous to list, from a variety of public and private organizations, who made presentations at committee meetings, hosted outreach seminars and town meetings,3 drafted white papers, and participated in mission studies. Finally, the committee acknowledges the exceptionally important contributions made by the following individuals at the Aerospace Corporation: Randy Persinger, Robert C. Kellogg, Robert J. Kinsey, Mark J. Barrera, David A. Bearden, Debra L. Emmons, Robert E. Bitten, and Matthew J. Hart.

____________

3 During the initiation of the decadal survey, town hall meetings and outreach events were held at the University of California, Los Angeles; the University of California, Berkeley; the University of Maryland, College Park; the University of New Hampshire; the University of Texas, Dallas; the University of Michigan; the National Center for Atmospheric Research; the National Astronomy and Ionosphere Center (Arecibo Observatory); Southwest Research Institute; and at the National Science Foundation’s Upper Atmosphere Facilities Fall 2010 meeting in Roanoke, Va.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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Acknowledgment of Members of the Decadal Survey Working Groups

The Committee on a Decadal Strategy for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) acknowledges with gratitude the contributions of the members of the five working groups that assessed the state of the field and areas of critical need in the cross-cutting areas listed below:

•   Theory, Modeling, and Data Exploitation: James F. Drake, Jr., University of Maryland, Co-Lead; Jon A. Linker, Predictive Science, Inc., Co-Lead; William Daughton, Los Alamos National Laboratory; Jan Egedal, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Joe Giacalone, University of Arizona; Joseph Huba, Naval Research Laboratory; Janet Kozyra, University of Michigan; Dana Longcope, Montana State University; Mark Miesch, High Altitude Observatory; Vahe Petrosian, Stanford University; Tai D. Phan, University of California, Berkeley; Merav Opher, Boston University; Marco Velli, Jet Propulsion Laboratory; and Michael Wiltberger, National Center for Atmospheric Research.

•   Explorers, Suborbital, and Other Platforms: Kristina A. Lynch, Dartmouth College, Co-Lead; Brian J. Anderson, John Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, Co-Lead; Gregory D. Earle, University of Texas, Dallas; Frank Hill, National Solar Observatory; David L. Hysell, Cornell University; Larry Kepko, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; David Klumpar, Montana State University; Robert P. Lin, University of California, Berkeley; Anthony J. Mannucci, Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Robyn Millan, Dartmouth College; Robert F. Pfaff, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Harlan E. Spence, University of New Hampshire; Michael Thompson, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research; and Allan Weatherwax, Siena College.

•   Innovations: Technology, Instruments, and Data Systems: Andrew B. Christensen, Dixie State College; Co-Lead; J. Todd Hoeksema, Stanford University, Co-Lead; Mihir Desai, Southwest Research Institute; Keith Goetz, University of Minnesota; Joseph Gurman, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Rod Heelis, University of Texas, Dallas; Gordon Hurford, University of California, Berkeley; Neal Hurlburt, Lockheed Martin; Jeff Kuhn, University of Hawaii; Ralph McNutt, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory; Steve Mende, University of California, Berkeley; Eberhard Moebius, University of New Hampshire; Danny Morrison, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory; Charles Swenson, Utah State University; and Daniel Winterhalter, Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
×

•   Research to Operations/Operations to Research: Michael Hesse, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Co-Lead; Ronald E. Turner, Analytic Services, Inc. (ANSER), Co-Lead; John Allen, NASA Headquarters; Odile de la Beaujardiere, Air Force Research Laboratory; Joe Fennell, The Aerospace Corporation; Tamas Gombosi, University of Michigan; Kelly Hand, Air Force Space Command; Russ Howard, Naval Research Laboratory; Louis J. Lanzerotti, New Jersey Institute of Technology; Scott Pugh, Department of Homeland Security; Geoff Reeves, Los Alamos National Laboratory; Pete Riley, Predictive Science, Inc.; Al Ronn, Northrop Grumman Co.; Robert W. Schunk, Utah State University; Howard Singer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Space Weather Prediction Center; and Kent Tobiska, Space Environment Technologies.

•   Education and Workforce: Cherilynn Morrow, Georgia State University, Co-Lead; Mark Moldwin, University of Michigan, Co-Lead; Bryan Mendez, University of California, Berkeley; James Drake, University of Maryland; Nicholas Gross, Boston University; Michael Liemohn, University of Michigan; Ramon Lopez, University of Texas, Arlington; Joshua Semeter, Boston University; Allan Weatherwax, Siena College; and Amy Winebarger, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Vassilis Angelopoulos, University of California, Berkeley,

Roger D. Blandford, Stanford University,

John C. Foster, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,

Timothy J. Fuller-Rowell, University of Colorado,

William C. Gibson, Southwest Research Institute,

John T. Gosling, University of Colorado, Boulder,

J. Randy Jokipii, University of Arizona,

Charles F. Kennel, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego,

David Y. Kusnierkiewicz, Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory,

J. Patrick Looney, Brookhaven National Laboratory,

Janet G. Luhmann, University of California, Berkeley,

William H. Matthaeus, University of Delaware,

Atsuhiro Nishida, Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (emeritus professor),

Patricia H. Reiff, Rice University,

Arthur D. Richmond, National Center for Atmospheric Research,

Karel Schrijver, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center,

A. Thomas Young, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired), and

Gary P. Zank, University of California, Riverside.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Martha P. Haynes, Cornell University, and George A. Paulikas, The Aerospace Corporation (retired). Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
×

Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Interactions

Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Interactions

Key Science Challenges

Challenges Related to the Sun and Heliosphere

Challenges Related to Solar Wind-Magnetosphere Interactions

Challenges Related to Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Interactions

Rising to the Challenges of the Coming Decade

3 ADDRESSING SOCIETAL NEEDS

Impacts of Earth’s Near-Space Environment

The Climate System

Satellite Infrastructure

Ionospheric Variability, Communication, and Navigation

Radiation and Human Space Exploration

Geomagnetic Effects on the Electric Power Grid

Severe Solar Storms

The Challenge of Predicting Space Weather Events

4 RECOMMENDATIONS

Research Recommendations

Baseline Priority for NASA and NSF: Complete the Current Program

First Research Recommendation [R1.0], for NASA, NSF, and Other Agencies— Implement the DRIVE Initiative

NASA Mission Lines

Second Research Recommendation [R2.0] for NASA—Accelerate and Expand the Heliophysics Explorer Program

Third Research Recommendation [R3.0] for NASA—Restructure Solar-Terrestrial Probes as a Moderate-Scale, Principal-Investigator-led Line

Fourth Research Recommendation [R4.0] for NASA—Implement a Large Living With a Star Mission

Applications Recommendations: Space Weather and Space Climatology

First Applications Recommendation [A1.0]—Recharter the National Space Weather Program

Benefits of Research-to-Operations and Operations-to-Research Interplay

Second Applications Recommendation [A2.0]—Work in a Multiagency Partnership to Achieve Continuity of Solar and Solar Wind Observations

Models and the Transition of Research to Operations

5 NSF PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION

Ground-Based Observations

Advanced Technology Solar Telescope

Midscale Funding Line

Candidates for a Midscale Line

CubeSats

Education

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
×

Faculty and Curriculum Development

Undergraduate and Graduate Training

Multidisciplinary Research

Funding Cross-Cutting Science

Heliophysics Science Centers

Solar and Space Physics at NSF

International Collaborations

6 NASA PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION

The NASA Heliophysics Core Program

Decision Rules and Augmentation Priorities

Recommended Decision Rules

Recommended Augmentation Priorities

International Collaborations

7 SPACE WEATHER AND SPACE CLIMATOLOGY: A VISION FOR FUTURE CAPABILITIES

Motivation—Economic and Societal Value

Strengthening the National Capability for Obtaining Space Weather and Climate Information

Current National Space Weather Program

Research Sources of Space Weather Information

A Robust Space Weather and Climatology Program

Core Elements

New Elements

An Illustrative Scenario

Implementation Concept

PART II: REPORTS TO THE SURVEY COMMITTEE FROM THE DISCIPLINE PANELS

8 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON ATMOSPHERE-IONOSPHERE-MAGNETOSPHERE INTERACTIONS

8.1 Summary of AIMI Science Priorities and Imperatives for the 2013-2022 Decade

8.1.1 Spaceflight Missions

8.1.2 Explorers, Suborbital, and Other Platforms

8.1.3 Ground-Based Facilities

8.1.4 Theory and Modeling

8.1.5 Enabling Capabilities

8.2 Motivations for Study of Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Interactions

8.3 Significant Accomplishments of the Previous Decade

8.3.1 Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling

8.3.2 Solar-AIM Coupling

8.3.3 Meteorology-AIM Coupling

8.3.4 AIM Coupling and Global Change

8.3.5 International Programs

8.3.6 Current and Future Programs

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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8.4 Science Goals and Priorities for the 2013-2022 Decade

8.4.1 AIMI Science Goal 1. Global Behavior of the Ionosphere-Thermosphere

8.4.2 AIMI Science Goal 2. Meteorological Driving of the IT System

8.4.3 AIMI Science Goal 3. Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Magnetosphere Coupling

8.4.4 AIMI Science Goal 4. Plasma-Neutral Coupling in a Magnetic Field

8.4.5 AIMI Science Goal 5. Planetary Change

8.4.6 Science Priorities

8.5 Implementation Strategies and Enabling Capabilities

8.5.1 Spaceflight Missions

8.5.2 Explorers, Suborbital, and Other Platforms

8.5.3 Ground-Based Facilities

8.5.4 Theory and Modeling

8.5.5 Enabling Capabilities

9 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON SOLAR WIND-MAGNETOSPHERE INTERACTIONS

9.1 Summary of SWMI Science Priorities and Imperatives

9.1.1 Missions

9.1.2 DRIVE-Related Actions

9.1.3 Space Weather

9.2 Introduction to SWMI Science

9.2.1 What Is the Magnetosphere?

9.3 Significant Accomplishments of the Previous Decade

9.3.1 Scientific Progression

9.3.2 Regions

9.3.3 Processes

9.3.4 Linkages

9.3.5 System Dynamics

9.3.6 Comparative Magnetospheres

9.4 Science Goals for the Coming Decade

9.4.1 Regions

9.4.2 Universal Processes

9.4.3 System Dynamics

9.4.4 Comparative Magnetospheres

9.4.5 Summary

9.5 Prioritized Imperatives

9.5.1 Introduction

9.5.2 Missions

9.5.3 DRIVE-Related Actions

9.5.4 Space Weather

9.5.5 Prioritization

9.6 Connections to Other Disciplines

9.6.1 Solar and Heliospheric Physics

9.6.2 Atmosphere and Ionosphere

9.6.3 Planetary Science

9.6.4 Physics and Astrophysics

9.6.5 Complex Nonlinear System Studies

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2013. Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13060.
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10 REPORT OF THE PANEL ON SOLAR AND HELIOSPHERIC PHYSICS

10.1 Physics of the Sun and Heliosphere—Major Science Goals

10.2 Solar and Heliospheric Physics Imperatives

10.2.1 Prioritized Imperatives for NASA

10.2.2 Prioritized Imperatives for NSF

10.2.3 Prioritized Multiagency Imperatives

10.3 Significant Accomplishments During the Previous Decade

10.3.1 Determining How the Sun Generates the Quasi-cyclical Variable Magnetic Field That Extends Throughout the Heliosphere

10.3.2 Determining How the Sun’s Magnetism Creates Its Dynamic Atmosphere

10.3.3 Determining How Magnetic Energy Is Stored and Explosively Released

10.3.4 Discovering How the Sun Interacts with the Local Galactic Medium and Protects Earth

10.4 Solar and Heliospheric Objectives for the Coming Decade

10.4.1 Determine How the Sun Generates the Quasi-cyclical Variable Magnetic Field That Extends Throughout the Heliosphere

10.4.2 Determine How the Sun’s Magnetism Creates Its Dynamic Atmosphere

10.4.3 Determine How Magnetic Energy Is Stored and Explosively Released

10.4.4 Discover How the Sun Interacts with the Local Galactic Medium and Protects Earth

10.4.5 Contributions of the SHP Panel’s Program to Achieving the Decadal Survey’s Key Science Goals

10.4.6 Goals for the Ongoing Program and Missions in Development

10.4.7 Goals for Ground-Based Facilities

10.5 Imperatives for the Health and Progress of Solar and Heliospheric Physics

10.5.1 NASA Missions in Development

10.5.2 New Imperatives for NASA

10.5.3 Summary of NASA-Related Imperatives Developed by the Panel on Solar and Heliospheric Physics

10.5.4 NSF-Related Initiatives

10.5.5 Multiagency Imperatives

10.6 Connections to Other Disciplines

10.6.1 Earth Science and Climate Change

10.6.2 Astrophysics

10.6.3 Comparative Planetology and Astrospheres

APPENDIXES

A Statement of Task and Work Plan

B Instrumentation, Data Systems, and Technology

C Toward a Diversified, Distributed Sensor Deployment Strategy

D Education and Workforce Issues in Solar and Space Physics

E Mission Development and Assessment Process

F Committee, Panels, and Staff Biographical Information

G Acronyms

H Request for Information from the Community

I List of Responses to Request for Information

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image

This report is dedicated to the memory of
ROBERT P. LIN (1942-2012),
a pioneering space scientist and a beloved colleague.

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From the interior of the Sun, to the upper atmosphere and near-space environment of Earth, and outward to a region far beyond Pluto where the Sun's influence wanes, advances during the past decade in space physics and solar physics--the disciplines NASA refers to as heliophysics--have yielded spectacular insights into the phenomena that affect our home in space.

Solar and Space Physics, from the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee for a Decadal Strategy in Solar and Space Physics, is the second NRC decadal survey in heliophysics. Building on the research accomplishments realized during the past decade, the report presents a program of basic and applied research for the period 2013-2022 that will improve scientific understanding of the mechanisms that drive the Sun's activity and the fundamental physical processes underlying near-Earth plasma dynamics, determine the physical interactions of Earth's atmospheric layers in the context of the connected Sun-Earth system, and enhance greatly the capability to provide realistic and specific forecasts of Earth's space environment that will better serve the needs of society.

Although the recommended program is directed primarily at NASA and the National Science Foundation for action, the report also recommends actions by other federal agencies, especially the parts of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration charged with the day-to-day (operational) forecast of space weather. In addition to the recommendations included in this summary, related recommendations are presented in this report.

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