Grand Challenges in Earthquake
A Community Workshop Report
Committee for the Workshop on Grand Challenges in Earthquake Engineering Research—
A Vision for NEES Experimental Facilities and Cyberinfrastructure Tools
Committee on Seismology and Geodynamics
Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
Division on Earth and Life Studies
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the National Science Foundation under contract No. CMMI-1047519. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-21452-0
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-21452-1
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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COMMITTEE FOR THE WORKSHOP ON GRAND CHALLENGES IN EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING RESEARCH—A VISION FOR NEES EXPERIMENTAL FACILITIES AND CYBERINFRASTRUCTURE TOOLS
GREGORY L. FENVES, Co-chair, University of Texas at Austin
CHRIS D. POLAND, Co-chair, Degenkolb Engineers, San Francisco, California
ADAM J. CREWE, University of Bristol, United Kingdom
RONALD T. EGUCHI, ImageCat, Inc., Long Beach, California
JEROME F. HAJJAR, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts
JEROME P. LYNCH, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
MASAYOSHI NAKASHIMA, Kyoto University, Japan
National Research Council Staff
JASON ORTEGO, Project Manager and Research Associate
DAVID A. FEARY, Project Director
ERIC EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant
BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
CORALE L. BRIERLEY, Chair, Brierley Consultancy, LLC, Highlands Ranch, Colorado
KEITH C. CLARKE, University of California, Santa Barbara
DAVID J. COWEN, University of South Carolina, Columbia
WILLIAM E. DIETRICH, University of California, Berkeley
ROGER M. DOWNS, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara
WILLIAM L. GRAF, University of South Carolina, Columbia
RUSSELL J. HEMLEY, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, D.C.
MURRAY W. HITZMAN, Colorado School of Mines, Golden
EDWARD KAVAZANJIAN, JR., Arizona State University, Tempe
ROBERT B. MCMASTER, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
M. MEGHAN MILLER, UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, Colorado
ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, University of California, Davis
CLAUDIA INÉS MORA, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico
BRIJ M. MOUDGIL, University of Florida, Gainesville
CLAYTON R. NICHOLS, Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (Retired), Ocean Park, Washington
HENRY N. POLLACK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
JOAQUIN RUIZ, University of Arizona, Tucson
DAVID T. SANDWELL, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
PETER M. SHEARER, University of California, San Diego
REGINAL SPILLER, Frontera Resources Corporation (Retired), Houston, Texas
RUSSELL E. STANDS-OVER-BULL, Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, Denver, Colorado
TERRY C. WALLACE, JR., Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico
National Research Council Staff
ANTHONY R. dE SOUZA, Director
ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Senior Program Officer
DAVID A. FEARY, Senior Program Officer
ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer
SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Program Officer
MARK D. LANGE, Associate Program Officer
JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Financial and Administrative Associate
NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate
COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate
JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate
ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant
CHANDA IJAMES, Program Assistant
COMMITTEE ON SEISMOLOGY AND GEODYNAMICS
DAVID T. SANDWELL, Chair, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
MICHAEL E. WYSESSION, Vice Chair, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri
J. RAMÓN ARROWSMITH, Arizona State University, Tempe
EMILY E. BRODSKY, University of California, Santa Cruz
JAMES L. DAVIS, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York
STUART P. NISHENKO, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco, California
PETER L. OLSON, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
NANCY L. ROSS, Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University, Blacksburg
CHARLOTTE A. ROWE, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico
BRIAN W. STUMP, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Texas
AARON A. VELASCO, University of Texas, El Paso
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Within a one-month period in 2011, two major earthquakes struck countries that are among the best prepared for earthquakes. The M6.1 South Island of New Zealand earthquake (February 22, 2011) had an epicenter 6 km from Christchurch. Less than three weeks later, the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake (March 11, 2011) hit the northeast region of Japan’s largest island, unleashing a massive tsunami. At the time of this publication, it is estimated that more than 25,000 people perished in the Tohoku earthquake and the economic toll in Japan may exceed 3 percent of its gross domestic product. These two earthquakes came on the heels of major earthquakes in Haiti and Chile within the past 18 months, providing stark reminders of the devastating impact major earthquakes have on the lives and economic stability of millions of people worldwide.
The events in Haiti continue to show that poor planning and governance lead to long-term chaos. The steady recovery of Chile demonstrates that modern earthquake planning, proper construction, and mitigation activities facilitate rapid recovery. The recent earthquake in New Zealand underscores the importance of including resilience—the ability to recover quickly—as a goal of urban development, land use planning, and earthquake preparedness. Japan, as one of the most prepared nations, reminds us of the evolving nature of our understanding of major earthquakes and their consequences. There is uncertainty inherent in all aspects of earthquake engineering that needs to be addressed on an ongoing basis with transformative research, process and code development, and focused implementation programs.
Only three days after the Tohoku earthquake, the National Research Council convened a long-planned community workshop sponsored by the National Science Foundation. The purpose of the workshop was to give members of the earthquake engineering community an opportunity to identify the “Grand Challenges” for earthquake engineering research that would be needed to achieve an earthquake-resilient society. Based on these grand challenges, the participants were asked to identify the networked facilities, both experimental and cyberinfrastructure, needed to address the challenges. Six keynote speakers provided their ideas and perspectives about the grand challenges and key technologies that will contribute to earthquake resilience. Through discussions in breakout sessions and plenary sessions, the participants identified Grand Challenges in earthquake engineering and the general requirements for networked facilities to pursue Grand Challenge research on preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery.
The timing of the community workshop, held while the world was learning about the impact of the Tohoku earthquake, emphasized to the 53 participants that although great progress in earthquake resilience has been made over the past 40 years, the geological threats to the United States are substantial. Society must make a major commitment to increase the resilience of its communities, infrastructure, and citizens. The Grand Challenge problems and networked facilities identified by the workshop participants will accelerate the research needed for transformative solutions to achieve this goal.
Gregory L. Fenves, Co-chair
Chris D. Poland, Co-chair
The workshop would not have been successful without the contributions of those who attended; discussions were informative, professional, and conducted in a cooperative spirit. For providing excellent white papers and keynote presentations to the workshop, the committee would like to thank Gregory Deierlein, Reginald DesRoches, Omar Ghattas, John Halloran, Laurie Johnson, and James Myers. The workshop was also greatly enhanced by the leadership of the breakout group moderators: John Egan, Ken Elwood, Kathleen Tierney, and Sharon Wood. Also to be acknowledged are the workshop participants: Richard Bowker, Mehmet Celebi, Raymond Daddazio, Leonardo Duenas-Osorio, Shirley Dyke, Ahmed Elgamal, Mohammed Ettouney, Charles Farrar, Kent Ferre, Steve French, Branko Glisic, Thomas Heaton, Jon Heintz, William Holmes, Muneo Hori, Kimberly Kurtis, Kincho Law, Bret Lizundia, Stephen Mahin, James Malley, Sami Masri, Peter May, Shamim Pakzad, Hope Seligson, Jonathan Stewart, Costas Synolakis, and Solomon Yim. All participants are listed in Appendix C of this document.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Richard Bowker, Memphis Light, Gas, and Water, Tennessee
Russell A. Green, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg
Ronald O. Hamburger, Simpson Gumpertz & Heger, Inc., San Francisco, California
Ann Patton, Ann Patton Company, LLC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
Kathleen J. Tierney, University of Colorado at Boulder
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse—nor did they see—the final draft of the workshop report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Susan Hanson, Clark University, and William Holmes, Rutherford & Chekene. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the NRC.