National Academies Press: OpenBook

Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies (2012)

Chapter: Appendix B: Workshop Information

« Previous: Appendix A: Summary of Recent and Evolving Arctic Sea Ice Predictability Efforts
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Information." National Research Council. 2012. Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13515.
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B
Workshop Information

The committee developed the workshop agenda and invited leading sea ice scientists, experts, and stakeholders to identify obstacles impeding progress in the prediction of Arctic sea ice on seasonal to decadal timescales, and to explore strategies to mitigate those obstacles. To address its task, the committee developed several fundamental working guidelines. The committee considered ice conditions during all seasons within the whole Arctic marine environment (i.e., Arctic Ocean and the subpolar seas, including the seasonal sea ice zone). The committee also provided the participants with a background document that summarized insights and information gained from previously related efforts and published works (see Appendix A). Challenges and strategies were identified during this workshop through presentations, breakout group discussions, and plenary summaries.

Workshop Agenda
May 9-10, 2012
University of Colorado Boulder, East Campus
Administrative and Research Center (ARC)
Boulder, CO

Workshop Goals: Arctic sea ice plays a number of important roles in moderating global climate and influencing oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Recent observed changes in the characteristics of the sea ice cover have various direct and indirect scientific, technological, and societal impacts such as the planning of new shipping ports, oil and gas exploration, increased marine transportation, as well as local and global climate and ecological changes. Currently, our limited understanding of the coupled and complex interactions between Arctic sea ice, oceans, and atmosphere hinders our ability to predict the rate and magnitude of future change. Enhancements of our theoretical, observing, and modeling capabilities will be essential for advancing the understanding and prediction of sea ice over seasonal to decadal timescales. The goal of the workshop is to foster a dialogue between polar scientists, agency representatives, and stakeholders to explore the current major challenges, with a focus on whether there are new methods, observations, and technologies that might advance our predictive capabilities through improved understanding of seasonal to decadal sea ice variations. This dialogue will provide expert information for the preparation of a National Research Council report.

Overarching Questions: What is limiting advancements in sea ice predictions on seasonal to decadal timescales? How can these limitations be overcome to realize necessary advancements?

 

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Information." National Research Council. 2012. Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13515.
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Wednesday, May 9, 2012

**A shuttle will pick up workshop participants from the Boulder Marriott on Canyon Blvd at 7:50 A.M., though participants may walk if they wish.**

Room: ARC 620
8:00 A.M. Breakfast
       
8:30 A.M. WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION
Purpose of the Study and the Workshop
Jackie Richter-Menge & John Walsh
Cochairs
       
9:00 A.M. STAKEHOLDER PANEL
Gary Hufford, NOAA/NWS
Vera Metcalf, Eskimo Walrus Commission
LCDR Kenneth Boda, US Coast Guard
Michael Terminel, Edison Chouest Offshore
Lawson Brigham, Moderator
       
  Key questions for the panelists:
 

-   What are the key questions you need answers to (and on what timescales?)

 

-   What information, beyond what is currently available to you, do you need to help make decisions?

 

-   What information are you receiving now that is useful to you?

       
9:35 A.M. DISCUSSION
       
10:15 A.M. Break
       
SESSION 1 - OBSERVATIONS
10:30 A.M. OBSERVATIONS PANEL
Hajo Eicken, UAF
Walt Meier, NSIDC
Ron Lindsay, UW
Key questions for the panelists:
Rebecca Woodgate, Moderator
 

-   What are the key gaps in our understanding?

 

-   What are the key observational challenges in the next five years?

 

-   What advances in observations could address these issues?

 

-   What interactions with modelers and stakeholders would benefit these goals?

       
10:55 A.M. DISCUSSION
       
11:30 A.M. BREAKOUTS
  Questions for breakout group discussion:
 

-   What are the key challenges and questions?

 

-   What are strategies for addressing these challenges?

 

-   What are the next steps that should be taken?

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Information." National Research Council. 2012. Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13515.
×

Blue Group

Leader: Jennifer Francis
Staff: Katie Thomas
Rapporteur: Don Perovich

Room # ARC446
Green Group

Leader: Robert Raye
Staff: Amanda Purcell/Chris Elfring
Rapporteur: Ignatius Rigor

Room # ARC248
Red Group

Leader: Son Nghiem
Staff: Deb Glickson
Rapporteur: Ron Kwok

Room # RL233
Black Group

Leader: Jackie Richter-Menge
Staff: Lauren Brown
Rapporteur: Jim Maslanik

Room # RL269
12:30 P.M. Lunch
       
1:45 P.M. REPORT BACK
       
2:45 P.M. Break
SESSION 2 - MODELING
3:15 P.M. MODELING PANEL
Cecilia Bitz, UW
Elizabeth Hunke, LANL
Andrey Proshutinsky, WHOI
Key questions for the panelists:
Marika Holland, Moderator
 

-   What are the key gaps in our understanding?

 

-   What are the key modeling challenges in the next five years?

 

-   What advances in modeling could address these issues?

 

-   What interactions with observationalists and stakeholders would benefit these goals?

       
3:40 P.M. DISCUSSION
       
4:15 P.M. BREAKOUTS
       
  Questions for breakout group discussion:
 

-   What are the key challenges and questions?

 

-   What are strategies for addressing these challenges?

 

-   What are the next steps that should be taken?

 

Blue Group

Leader: Jennifer Francis
Staff: Katie Thomas
Green Group

Leader: Robert Raye
Staff: Amanda Purcell/Chris Elfring
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Information." National Research Council. 2012. Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13515.
×
Rapporteur: Sinead Farrell

Room # ARC446
Rapporteur: Alex Jahn

Room # ARC248
Red Group

Leader: Son Nghiem
Staff: Deb Glickson
Rapporteur: Wieslaw Maslowski

Room # RL233
Black Group

Leader: Jackie Richter-Menge
Staff: Lauren Brown
Rapporteur: Jenny Hutchings

Room # RL269
5:30 P.M. Adjourn
**Shuttle will be available to take participants back to the hotel.**

Thursday, May 10, 2012

**Shuttle will pick up workshop participants from the Boulder Marriott on Canyon Blvd at 7:50 A.M., though participants may walk if they wish.**

Room: ARC 620

8:00 A.M. Breakfast
       
8:30 A.M. REPORT BACK
SESSION 3—CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
9:30 A.M. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES PANEL
Jim Overland, NOAA/PMEL
Brendan Kelly, IARPC
Pablo Clemente-Colón, NOAA/National Ice Center
Jean-Claude Gascard, Université Pierre et Marie Curie
John Walsh, Moderator
 
  Key questions for the panelists:
 

-   What gaps or questions in sea ice prediction have not yet been addressed in previous efforts or reports?

 

-   What are some cross-cutting issues with observation and modeling interactions?

 

-   How can the various communities (observationalists, modelers, stakeholders) better coordinate?

       
10:05 A.M. DISCUSSION
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Information." National Research Council. 2012. Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13515.
×
10:30 A.M. Break
       
11:00 A.M. BREAKOUTS
  Questions for breakout group discussion:
 

-   What are the key challenges and questions?

 

-   What are strategies for addressing these challenges?

 

-   What are the next steps that should be taken?

 

Blue Group

Leader: Jennifer Francis
Staff: Katie Thomas
Rapporteur: Molly McCammon

Room # ARC446
Green Group

Leader: Robert Raye
Staff: Amanda Purcell/Chris Elfring
Rapporteur: Peter Wadhams

Room # ARC248
Red Group

Leader: Son Nghiem
Staff: Deb Glickson
Rapporteur: Justin Wettstein

Room # RL233
Black Group

Leader: Jackie Richter-Menge
Staff: Lauren Brown
Rapporteur: Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth

Room # RL269M

12:15 P.M. Lunch
       
1:15 P.M. REPORT BACK
       
2:15 P.M. WRAP-UP AND FINAL REMARKS Jackie Richter-Menge & John Walsh Cochairs
       
3:00 P.M. Adjourn
**Shuttle will be available to take participants back to the hotel.**

The Future of Arctic Sea Ice Research in Support of Seasonal to Decadal Prediction Participant List

Cecilia Bitz, University of Washington

Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, University of Washington

LCDR Ken Boda, U.S. Coast Guard

Lawson Brigham, University of Alaska

Lauren Brown, National Research Council

Pablo Clemente-Colon, NOAA National Ice Center

Hajo Eicken, University of Alaska Fairbanks

Chris Elfring, National Research Council

John Farrell, U.S. Arctic Research Commission

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Information." National Research Council. 2012. Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13515.
×

Sinead Farrell, University of Maryland

Jennifer Francis, Rutgers University

Jean-Claude Gascard, Université Pierre et Marie Curie

Deb Glickson, National Research Council

Jeff Gossett, USN Arctic Submarine Laboratory

Marika Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Amy Holman, NOAA National Ocean Service

Gary Hufford, National Weather Service—Alaska Region

Elizabeth Hunke, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Jenny Hutchings, University of Alaska, Fairbanks

Janet Intrieri, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

Alexandra Jahn, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Brendan Kelly, Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee

Ron Kwok, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Ron Lindsay, University of Washington

Jim Maslanik, University of Colorado, Boulder

Wieslaw Maslowski, Naval Postgrad School

Larry Mayer, University of New Hampshire

LCDR Blake McBride, U.S. Navy

Molly McCammon, Alaska Ocean Observing System

Walt Meier, National Snow and Ice Data Center

Vera Metcalf, Eskimo Walrus Commission

Son Nghiem, Jet Propulsion Laboratory/Caltech

Jim Overland, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Don Perovich, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory

Andrey Proshutinsky, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Amanda Purcell, National Research Council

Robert Raye, Shell Projects and Technology

Jackie Richter-Menge, Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory

Ignatius Rigor, University of Washington

Mike Terminel, Edison Chouest Offshore

Katie Thomas, National Research Council

Peter Wadhams, University of Cambridge

John Walsh, University of Alaska, Fairbanks

Justin Wettstein, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Jim White, University of Colorado, Boulder

Rebecca Woodgate, University of Washington

Jinlun Zhang, University of Washington

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Information." National Research Council. 2012. Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13515.
×
Page 65
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Information." National Research Council. 2012. Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13515.
×
Page 66
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Information." National Research Council. 2012. Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13515.
×
Page 67
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Information." National Research Council. 2012. Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13515.
×
Page 68
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Information." National Research Council. 2012. Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13515.
×
Page 69
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Workshop Information." National Research Council. 2012. Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13515.
×
Page 70
Next: Appendix C: Summaries of Workshop Panels and Breakout Discussions »
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Recent well documented reductions in the thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice cover, which can be linked to the warming climate, are affecting the global climate system and are also affecting the global economic system as marine access to the Arctic region and natural resource development increase. Satellite data show that during each of the past six summers, sea ice cover has shrunk to its smallest in three decades. The composition of the ice is also changing, now containing a higher fraction of thin first-year ice instead of thicker multi-year ice.

Understanding and projecting future sea ice conditions is important to a growing number of stakeholders, including local populations, natural resource industries, fishing communities, commercial shippers, marine tourism operators, national security organizations, regulatory agencies, and the scientific research community. However, gaps in understanding the interactions between Arctic sea ice, oceans, and the atmosphere, along with an increasing rate of change in the nature and quantity of sea ice, is hampering accurate predictions. Although modeling has steadily improved, projections by every major modeling group failed to predict the record breaking drop in summer sea ice extent in September 2012.

Establishing sustained communication between the user, modeling, and observation communities could help reveal gaps in understanding, help balance the needs and expectations of different stakeholders, and ensure that resources are allocated to address the most pressing sea ice data needs. Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies explores these topics.

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