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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study is based on work supported by Contract FA2517-11-C-7001 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Air Force. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-26656-7
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-26656-4
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Copyright 2012 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
RECENT REPORTS OF THE AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD
Continuing Kepler’s Quest: Assessing Air Force Space Command’s Astrodynamics Standards (Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board [ASEB], 2012)
NASA Space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities: Restoring NASA’s Technological Edge and Paving the Way for a New Era in Space (ASEB, 2012)
Recapturing NASA’s Aeronautics Flight Research Capabilities (ASEB, 2012)
Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society (Space Studies Board [SSB] with ASEB, 2012)
An Interim Report on NASA’s Draft Space Technology Roadmaps (ASEB, 2011)
Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: An Assessment of NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs (ASEB, 2011)
Preparing for the High Frontier—the Role and Training of NASA Astronauts in the Post-Space Shuttle Era (ASEB, 2011)
Recapturing a Future for Space Exploration: Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era (SSB with ASEB, 2011)
Summary of the Workshop to Identify Gaps and Possible Directions for NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs (ASEB, 2011)
Advancing Aeronautical Safety: A Review of NASA’s Aviation Safety-Related Research Programs (ASEB, 2010)
Capabilities for the Future: An Assessment of NASA Laboratories for Basic Research (Laboratory Assessments Board with ASEB, 2010)
Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth-Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Final Report (SSB with ASEB, 2010)
Final Report of the Committee to Review Proposals to the 2010 Ohio Third Frontier (OTF) Wright Projects Program (WPP) (ASEB, 2010)
America’s Future in Space: Aligning the Civil Space Program with National Needs (SSB with ASEB, 2009)
Approaches to Future Space Cooperation and Competition in a Globalizing World: Summary of a Workshop (SSB with ASEB, 2009)
An Assessment of NASA’s National Aviation Operations Monitoring Service (ASEB, 2009)
Final Report of the Committee for the Review of Proposals to the 2009 Engineering and Physical Science Research and Commercialization Program of the Ohio Third Frontier Program (ASEB, 2009)
Fostering Visions for the Future: A Review of the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (ASEB, 2009)
Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2009)
Radioisotope Power Systems: An Imperative for Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Space Exploration (SSB with ASEB, 2009)
Assessing the Research and Development Plan for the Next Generation Air Transportation System: Summary of a Workshop (ASEB, 2008)
A Constrained Space Exploration Technology Program: A Review of NASA’s Exploration Technology Development Program (ASEB, 2008)
Final Report of the Committee for the Review of Proposals to the 2008 Engineering Research and Commercialization Program of the Ohio Third Frontier Program (ASEB, 2008)
Final Report of the Committee to Review Proposals to the 2008 Ohio Research Scholars Program of the State of Ohio (ASEB, 2008)
Launching Science: Science Opportunities Provided by NASA’s Constellation System (SSB with ASEB, 2008)
Managing Space Radiation Risk in the New Era of Space Exploration (ASEB, 2008)
NASA Aeronautics Research: An Assessment (ASEB, 2008)
Review of NASA’s Exploration Technology Development Program: An Interim Report (ASEB, 2008)
Science Opportunities Enabled by NASA’s Constellation System: Interim Report (SSB with ASEB, 2008)
United States Civil Space Policy: Summary of a Workshop (SSB with ASEB, 2008)
Wake Turbulence: An Obstacle to Increased Air Traffic Capacity (ASEB, 2008)
Limited copies of ASEB reports are available free of charge from:
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COMMITTEE FOR THE REUSABLE BOOSTER SYSTEM: REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT
DAVID M. VAN WIE, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Chair
EDWARD H. BOCK, Lockheed Martin Space Systems (retired)
YVONNE C. BRILL, INMARSAT (emerita)
ALLAN V. BURMAN, Jefferson Solutions
DAVID C. BYERS, Consultant
LEONARD H. CAVENY, Caveny Tech, LLC
ROBERT S. DICKMAN, AIAA
MARK K. JACOBS, Consultant
THOMAS J. LEE, Lee & Associates, LLC
C. KUMAR N. PATEL, Pranalytica, Inc.
DIANE ROUSSEL-DUPRE, Los Alamos National Laboratory
ROBERT L. SACKHEIM, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (retired)
POL D. SPANOS, Rice University
MITCHELL L.R. WALKER, Georgia Institute of Technology
BEN T. ZINN, Georgia Institute of Technology
Staff
JOHN WENDT, Senior Program Officer, Study Director
AMANDA THIBAULT, Research Associate
CATHERINE A. GRUBER, Editor
TERRI BAKER, Senior Program Assistant (until March 30, 2012)
RODNEY HOWARD, Senior Program Assistant (from April 1, 2012)
MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD
LESTER L. LYLES, The Lyles Group, Chair
AMY L. BUHRIG, The Boeing Company, Vice Chair
ELLA M. ATKINS, University of Michigan
INDERJIT CHOPRA, University of Maryland, College Park
JOHN-PAUL B. CLARKE, Georgia Institute of Technology
RAVI B. DEO, EMBR
VIJAY K. DHIR, University of California, Los Angeles
EARL H. DOWELL, Duke University
MICA R. ENDSLEY, SA Technologies
DAVID GOLDSTON, Natural Resources Defense Council
R. JOHN HANSMAN, JR., Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN B. HAYHURST, The Boeing Company (retired)
WILLIAM L. JOHNSON, California Institute of Technology
RICHARD KOHRS, Independent Consultant, Dickinson, Texas
IVETT LEYVA, Air Force Research Laboratory, Edwards Air Force Base
ELAINE S. ORAN, Naval Research Laboratory
HELEN L. REED, Texas A&M University
ELI RESHOTKO, Case Western Reserve University
EDMOND SOLIDAY, United Airlines (retired)
Staff
MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director
CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator
TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations
CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate
CHRISTINA O. SHIPMAN, Financial Officer
SANDRA WILSON, Financial Assistant
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Brian Cantwell, Stanford University,
John Casani, Jet Propulsion Laboratory,
Natalie W. Crawford, The RAND Corporation,
Robert L. Crippen, U.S. Navy (retired) and Thiokol Propulsion (retired),
David E. Crow, University of Connecticut and Pratt and Whitney (retired),
Joseph Hamaker, The Millennium Group International, LLC,
Debra Facktor Lepore, Stevens Institute of Technology,
Lester L. Lyles, U.S. Air Force (retired) and The Lyles Group, and
Alan Wilhite, Georgia Institute of Technology.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by John D. Anderson, National Air and Space Museum of the Smithsonian Institution. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Contents
1.1 Spacelift Requirements and Objectives for National Security Payloads
1.2 Reusable Booster System Approach and Potential Benefits
1.3 Potential Expendable New Entrants
1.4 NRC Evaluation of the Reusable Booster System
2 AIR FORCE EELV-CLASS LAUNCH REQUIREMENTS AND APPROACHES
2.2 RBS Schedule and Projected Costs Summaries
2.3 RBS Technical Program Summaries
2.3.1 RBS Flight Vehicles, Operations, and Infrastructure
2.3.2 Development Flight Vehicles
2.4 Additional Programmatic Considerations
2.4.1 External Program Considerations
2.5 RBS and Recent Reusable Vehicles
3 REUSABLE BOOSTER SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
3.1 Assessment of Technology Maturity of Key Elements
3.2.1 Hydrocarbon-Fueled Booster Engine Risk Assessment
3.2.2 Hydrocarbon-Fueled Booster Engine Risk Mitigation
3.3.4 Rocketback RTLS Maneuver Risk Reduction
3.5 Adaptive Guidance and Control for Reusable Booster Systems
3.6.2 Power, Fluid Thermal, and Actuation R&D
3.6.3 Assembly and Manufacturing
3.7 Operations and Infrastructure
3.7.2 Launch Readiness Reviews
3.7.4 Launch Vehicle Processing Options
3.7.5 Booster and Upper Stage(s) Processing
3.7.6 Booster/Upper Stage Integration and Checkout
3.7.7 RBS Transport and Pad Installation
3.7.10 Propellant Loading and Launch Countdown
3.7.11 Exhaust Ducts and Acoustic Suppression System
3.7.13 Booster Landing and Safing
3.7.14 Postflight Booster Checkout, Maintenance, and Storage
3.7.15 Booster Depot Maintenance
3.8 Summary of RBS Risk Assessment and Mitigation Efforts
4.1 Baseline Cost Modeling Approach and Assessment Overview
4.2 Assessment of Baseline Cost Modeling
4.2.5 Cost Modeling Assessment Summary
4.3.1 Approach and Assumptions
4.3.2 Results, Sensitivities, and Uncertainty Ranges
4.3.3 Impact of Commercial Activities
4.4 Other Issues and Cost Considerations
5.1 Phased Approach to the Reduction of Risk
5.1.4 Booster Engine Development
5.1.5 Reusable Booster Demonstrator Phase
5.2.1 Risk Reduction Tracking Approach
5.2.3 Configuration Identification and Management
5.3 Government Insight/Oversight
5.3.1 Independent Technical Review
5.3.2 Contractor Reporting Requirements
5.3.3 Change Approval Approach
5.3.4 Production Monitoring Approach
6 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
B Committee Member and Staff Biographies
C List of Presenters to the Committee