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TRANSPORTAT ION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2011 www.TRB.org A I R P O R T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M ACRP REPORT 50 Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Subscriber Categories Aviation â¢ Safety and Human Factors Improved Models for Risk Assessment of Runway Safety Areas Manuel Ayres Jr. Hamid Shirazi Regis Carvalho Jim Hall Richard Speir Edith Arambula APPLIED RESEARCH ASSOCIATES, INC. Elkridge, MD Robert David ROBERT E. DAVID & ASSOCIATES, INC. Fredericksburg, VA Derek Wong London, UK John Gadzinski FOUR WINDS CONSULTING Virginia Beach, VA
AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in trans- portation of people and goods and in regional, national, and inter- national commerce. They are where the nationâs aviation system connects with other modes of transportation and where federal respon- sibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most airports. Research is necessary to solve common operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Coopera- tive Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the airport industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study spon- sored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The ACRP carries out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating agencies and are not being adequately addressed by existing federal research programs. It is modeled after the successful National Coopera- tive Highway Research Program and Transit Cooperative Research Pro- gram. The ACRP undertakes research and other technical activities in a variety of airport subject areas, including design, construction, mainte- nance, operations, safety, security, policy, planning, human resources, and administration. The ACRP provides a forum where airport opera- tors can cooperatively address common operational problems. The ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision 100-Century of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary partici- pants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation with representation from airport oper- ating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant industry organizations such as the Airports Council International-North America (ACI-NA), the American Association of Airport Executives (AAAE), the National Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), and the Air Transport Association (ATA) as vital links to the airport community; (2) the TRB as program manager and secretariat for the governing board; and (3) the FAA as program sponsor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a contract with the National Academies formally initiating the program. The ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of airport professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research orga- nizations. Each of these participants has different interests and respon- sibilities, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Research problem statements for the ACRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to the TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by iden- tifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel, appointed by the TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport pro- fessionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels pre- pare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooper- ative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the intended end-users of the research: airport operating agencies, service providers, and suppliers. The ACRP produces a series of research reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties, and industry associations may arrange for work- shops, training aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by airport-industry practitioners. ACRP REPORT 50 Project 04-08 ISSN 1935-9802 ISBN 978-0-309-21321-9 Library of Congress Control Number 2011928921 Â© 2011 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB or FAA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the Airport Cooperative Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the Airport Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturersâ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. Published reports of the AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academyâs purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transporta- tion Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Boardâs varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individu- als interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org
CRP STAFF FOR ACRP REPORT 50 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Crawford F. Jencks, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Michael R. Salamone, ACRP Manager Theresia H. Schatz, Senior Program Officer Joseph J. Brown-Snell, Program Associate Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Margaret B. Hagood, Editor ACRP PROJECT 04-08 PANEL Field of Safety Dana L. Ryan, St. Louis Airport Authority, St. Louis, MO (Chair) Steven G. Benson, Coffman Associates, Lee Summitt, MO Diana S. Dolezal, Greater Toronto Airports Authority, Toronto, ON Alex M. Kashani, Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, Washington, DC Deborah T. Marino, TitusvilleâCocoa Airport Authority, Titusville, FL Phillip C. Miller, California DOT, Sacramento, CA Xiaosong âSeanâ Xiao, Xcel Energy, Minneapolis, MN Michel Hovan, FAA Liaison Matthew J. Griffin, Airports Council InternationalâNorth America Liaison Richard Pain, TRB Liaison AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research reported herein was performed under ACRP Project 4-08 by Applied Research Associates Inc. (ARA), Robert E. David & Associates, Inc. (RED), Dr. Derek Wong, and Mr. John Gadzinski. ARA was the prime contractor for this study, with RED, Dr. Wong and Four Winds Consulting serving as sub- consultants. Dr. Manuel Ayres, Principal Engineer at ARA, was the Principal Investigator; Mr. Hamid Shirazi, P.E., Project Engineer at ARA, was the Project Manager, and Mr. Richard Speir, ARA Mid-Atlantic Division Manager, served as Co-Principal Investigator. The other authors of this report are Mr. Regis Carvalho (ARA), Mr. Robert David (RED), Dr. Derek Wong, Consultant, Dr. Jim Hall, Mr. John Gadzinski (Four Winds), and Ms. Edith Arambula (ARA). The authors are very grateful for the guidance and help provided by the ACRP Panel for ACRP 4-08. A very important contribution to this study was provided by MITRE Corporation. They made available their comprehensive database of accidents, and it significantly improved the availability of information to develop the risk models presented in this study. The research team is particularly grateful to Mr. Wallace Feerrar and Mr. John LeBron, who kindly made the information available. The research team is also very grateful for the participation of eight volunteers listed in Appendix G to test the analysis software, and for the courtesy of Mr. Luis Rosa to authorize the use of his photos. C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S
ACRP Report 50: Improved Models for Risk Assessment of Runway Safety Areas expands on the research presented in ACRP Report 3: Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas to include the analysis of aircraft veer-offs, the use of declared dis- tances, the implementation of the Engineered Material Arresting System (EMAS) and the incorporation of a risk approach for consideration of obstacles in or in the vicinity of the RSA. A user-friendly risk analysis tool is provided for airport and industry stakeholders to quantify risk and support planning and engineering decisions when determining RSA requirements to meet an acceptable level of safety for various types and sizes of airports. The tool is interactive and versatile to help users determine the risk based on various input parameters. Current standards for RSAs are fairly rigid because they depend only on the type and size of aircraft using the runway. However, numerous factors affecting operations may lead to aircraft overruns, undershoots, and veer-offs. In many instances, standard RSAs are not fea- sible because of constraints, such as obstacles or land unavailability. In such cases, it is essen- tial that alternatives be evaluated to minimize risk, to the extent practicable, in relation to site-specific conditions. For example, depending on the type of operation, the relationship between actual runway distance required and the actual runway distance available for both landing and takeoff can significantly affect the risk. An approach for risk assessment of RSAs has been developed under ACRP Report 3: Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas. ACRP Report 3 pro- vides a risk-based assessment that is rational and accounts for the variability of several risk factors associated with aircraft overruns and undershoots. The findings in ACRP Report 3 are the basis for further research to quantify and assess risk in the RSA environment. Under- standing this level of risk under a given set of conditions is essential to address RSA enhance- ment opportunities. ACRP Report 50 contains an analysis tool on the accompanying CD. The user guide to the analysis tool is in Appendix I of the report and is also on the CD and software help file. In addition, a presentation documenting the research method has been posted on the proj- ect web page, under ACRP Project 04-08. This research effort was conducted by Applied Research Associates, Inc. as the prime contractor, with Dr. Manuel Ayres serving as Prin- cipal Investigator, and Robert E. David & Associates and Four Winds Consulting as sub-consultants. F O R E W O R D By Theresia H. Schatz Staff Officer Transportation Research Board
C O N T E N T S 1 Summary 3 Chapter 1 Background 3 Introduction 4 Project Goals 4 RSA Improvement Alternatives 7 Chapter 2 Research Approach 7 Functional Hazard Analysis 8 Accident and Incident Data 12 Normal Operations Data 12 Aircraft Data 13 Chapter 3 Modeling RSA Risk 13 Event Probability (Frequency Model) 15 Event Location Models 18 EMAS Deceleration Model 22 Accuracy of Models 23 Chapter 4 Consequence Approach 23 Modeling Approach for Risk 25 Implementation of Approach 27 Additional Simplifications 28 Chapter 5 Analysis Software 28 Overview 28 Software Capabilities 28 Input Data 30 Output and Interpretation 31 Software Field Test 32 Chapter 6 Model Validation 34 Validation of Frequency Models 35 Validation of Risk Model 37 Chapter 7 Conclusions and Recommendations for Further Research 37 Major Achievements 38 Limitations 39 Recommendations for Future Work 40 References 41 Abbreviations and Acronyms 43 Definitions
A-1 Appendix A Functional Hazard Analysis Results B-1 Appendix B Summary of Accidents and Incidents C-1 Appendix C Sample of Normal Operations Data D-1 Appendix D Aircraft Database Summary E-1 Appendix E EMAS F-1 Appendix F Risk Criteria Used by the FAA G-1 Appendix G Plan to Field Test Software Tool H-1 Appendix H Summary of Results for Software/Model Tests I-1 Appendix I Software Userâs Guide Note: Many of the photographs, figures, and tables in this report have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the Web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.