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Improved Models for Risk Assessment of Runway Safety Areas (2011)

Chapter: Appendix F - Risk Criteria Used by the FAA

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix F - Risk Criteria Used by the FAA." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Improved Models for Risk Assessment of Runway Safety Areas. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13635.
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Page 108
Page 109
Suggested Citation:"Appendix F - Risk Criteria Used by the FAA." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2011. Improved Models for Risk Assessment of Runway Safety Areas. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13635.
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Page 109

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F-1 Although the main objective of this research was to de- velop a tool to help airport planners evaluate RSA alterna- tives, the basis for the analysis was a quantitative assessment of risk associated with runway excursions and undershoots. Risk is the composite of the likelihood of the occurrence and severity of the outcome or effect (harm) of the hazard. Severity is the measure of how bad the results of an event are predicted to be. Likelihood should be considered only after determining severity. Table F1 provides the FAA specific def- initions of severity. Likelihood is an expression of how often an event can be ex- pected to occur at the worst credible severity. Table F2 shows FAA likelihood definitions. A risk classification (high, medium, or low) is provided based on the FAA risk matrix shown in Figure F1 and the likelihood and severity scenario for each hazard. A P P E N D I X F Risk Criteria Used by the FAA Hazard Severity Classification Minimal 5 Minor 4 Major 3 Hazardous 2 Catastrophic 1 No damage to aircraft but minimal injury or discomfort of little consequence to passenger(s) or workers - Minimal damage to aircraft; - Minor injury to passengers; - Minimal unplanned airport operations limitations (i.e. taxiway closure); - Minor incident involving the use of airport emergency procedures - Major damager to aircraft and/or minor injury to passenger(s)/ worker(s); - Major unplanned disruption to airport operations; - Serious incident; - Deduction on the airport's ability to deal with adverse conditions - Severe damage to aircraft and/or serious injury to passenger(s)/ worker(s); - Complete unplanned airport closure; - Major unplanned operations limitations (i.e. runway closure); - Major airport damage to equipment and facilities- - Complete loss of aircraft and/or facilities or fatal injury in passenger(s)/wor ker(s); - Complete unplanned airport closure and destruction of critical facilities; - Airport facilities and equipment destroyed Table F1. FAA severity definitions (FAA 2010).

F-2 ATC Operational General Airport Specific Per Facility3 NAS-wide4 Fr eq ue nt A Probability of occurrence per operation is equal to or greater than 1x10-3 Expected to occur more than once per week or every 2500 departures (4x10-4), whichever occurs sooner Expected to occur more than once per week Expected to occur every 1-2 days Pr ob ab le B Probability of occurrence per operation is less than 1x10-3, but equal to or greater than 1x10-5 Expected to occur about once every month or 250,000 departures (4x10-6), whichever occurs sooner Expected to occur about once every month Expected to occur several times per month R em ot e C Probability of occurrence per operation is less than 1x10-5 but equal to or greater than 1x10-7 Expected to occur about once every year or 2.5 million departures (4x10-7), whichever occurs sooner Expected to occur about once every 1 -10 years Expected to occur about once every few months Ex tr em el y R em ot e D Probability of occurrence per operation is less than 1x10-7 but equal to or greater than 1x10-9 Expected to occur once every 10-100 years or 25 million departures (4x10-8), whichever occurs sooner Expected to occur about once every 10-100 years Expected to occur about once every 3 years Ex tr em el y Im pr ob ab le E Probability of occurrence per operation is less than 1x10-9 Expected to occur less than every 100 years Expected to occur less than once every 100 years Expected to occur less than once every 30 years Note: Occurrence is defined per movement. Table F2. FAA likelihood levels (FAA 2010). Figure F1. FAA risk matrix (FAA 1988, 2010).

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TRB’s Airport Cooperative Research Program (ACRP) Report 50: Improved Models for Risk Assessment of Runway Safety Areas analyzes aircraft veer-offs, the use of declared distances, the implementation of the Engineered Material Arresting System (EMAS), and the incorporation of a risk approach for consideration of obstacles in or in the vicinity of the runway safety area (RSA).

An interactive risk analysis tool, updated in 2017, quantifies risk and support planning and engineering decisions when determining RSA requirements to meet an acceptable level of safety for various types and sizes of airports. The Runway Safety Area Risk Analysis Version 2.0 (RSARA2) can be downloaded as a zip file. View the installation requirements for more information.

ACRP Report 50 expands on the research presented in ACRP Report 3: Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas. View the Impact on Practice related to this report.

Disclaimer - This software is offered as is, without warranty or promise of support of any kind either expressed or implied. Under no circumstance will the National Academy of Sciences or the Transportation Research Board (collectively “TRB’) be liable for any loss or damage caused by the installation or operations of this product. TRB makes no representation or warrant of any kind, expressed or implied, in fact or in law, including without limitation, the warranty of merchantability or the warranty of fitness for a particular purpose, and shall not in any case be liable for any consequential or special damages.

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