Automotive Fuel Economy: How Far Can We Go? (1992)

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A

Active noise control, 44

Air/fuel ratio, 34, 69, 76

Air Quality Act of 1967, 71

Antilock brakes, 58, 59

Automobile consumers, 9-10, 107-120

age and buying preferences, 116-117, 119-120

and fuel economy, 9-10, 27, 111-112, 117-119, 120, 156-159, 170

and fuel prices, 119, 120

and future price increases, 110-111

demand for optional equipment/performance, 110, 117-118, 119

fuel economy/fuel price trade offs, 112-114, 118

mix of automotive purchases, 9, 114

new-car expenditures, 107-111

Automotive industry (U.S.), 8-9, 26, 90-105

capacity for investment, 9, 100-102

employment in, 8, 94-97, 105

financial performance, 91-93, 104

impact of competition, 8, 91-92, 93-102, 105

impact of emissions standards, 94 (note 7), 100, 104

impact of fuel economy standards, 90, 91, 100-102, 159-162

impact of international fuel prices, 103, 105

Japanese transplants, 91, 96-97

plant closings, 94, 95

product development, U.S. vs. Japanese, 98-100, 102, 105

Automotive market, 107-111

new-car expenditures, 107, 109

sales and scrappage, 107-108, 110

Auto/Oil Air Quality Improvement Research Program, 80, 81

C

Car sales by size class, 18, 22

Catalyst systems

heated, 79

NO_x, 43, 75, 77-78, 85

three-way, 43, 70, 75, 76-77

Charge to the committee, 1

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), 71

Clean Air Act amendments, 69, 71, 72-75

Concept vehicles, 45, 222-225

see also, prototype vehicles

Corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) system

alternatives/supplements to, 10-11, 173-180, 185-186, 187

fees and rebates, 11, 179-180, 186

increased fuel prices, 11, 173-178, 186

current system, 12, 168-173, 183 (note 28)

strengths, 172-173

weaknesses, 10, 169-172, 186

percentage improvement approach, 10, 181, 187

potential modifications to, 11, 180-185, 186-187

vehicle attribute approach, 181-182

D

Diesel engine 33, 219-221

Downsizing/downweighting, 39, 62, 63

estimates of safety impact, 5-6, 51-55, 62, 63

GAO study, 54-55

need for further study, 63

NHTSA study, 53

OTA study, 55

E

Emissions, 26

data on, 71, 78, 82

health effects, 70, 85

impact on global warming, 70

nature of, 69-72

Emissions control, 7-8, 71-85

costs, 159

during refueling, 70, 80, 85

hydrocarbons, 79

impact on fuel economy, 7-8, 75-82, 105, 164

indirect impacts, 84

meeting future standards, 7-8, 82-83, 84-85

NO_x, 76-79

on-board fuel recovery, 70, 80

standards, 72-75, 76

stationary sources, 78, 82

surveillance, 83, 85

Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. (EEA)

fuel economy projections, 123, 124, 145, 154, 232

fuel economy technologies, 40, 137-139, 196, 197, 200-214

Energy Policy and Conservation Act, 12

Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR), 44, 77

Externalities, 25, 118

F

Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS), 54 (note 7), 55-56

Fatality rates, 47

by crash type, 50

trends in, 47, 62

Fatality risk, 56

and crash severity, 49-50

and design compatibility, 51, 59

and ride-down distances, 50

and rollover stability, 5-6, 48-49, 58, 59, 62

Federal Test Procedure (FTP), 30

highway cycle, 37

operating conditions, 31, 37

urban cycle, 37

Fuel

chemical energy in, 31, 32, 35, 36

consumption, 22, 163

prices, 17, 112-114, 173-178

cost-benefits of reduced consumption, 23-25

Fuel economy

and emissions control, 7-8, 75-82, 84-85

and safety standards, 59, 63

determinants, 32-40

Japanese interest in, 90

technologies, 3-5, 7, 40-45

emerging 3-5, 43-45

proven, 3-5, 40-43

trends, 13-22

U.S. vs. Japanese cars, 90

Fuel economy estimates

caveats, 2, 149-150, 164-165

practically achievable, 1, 154-165

cost-benefit consideration, 154-156, 157

costs-benefits for consumers, 156-159

costs-benefits for manufacturers, 159-162

costs-benefits for nation, 163

technically achievable, 1-3, 150-154

Fuel economy projections, 122-146

committee projections, 126-144, 146

alternative methods, 125, 146

assumptions, 125-126

best-in-class projections, 131-135, 146

caveats, 144, 145

historical trend projections, 126-131

Fuel economy projections

committee projections (continued)

technology-penetration projections (shopping cart), 133-144, 146

costs involved, 138, 139-144

previous efforts, 122-125

G

Greenhouses gases, 70, 71

carbon dioxide emissions 24, 104, 156, 163

L

Lean-burn engines, 43, 217-221

Light trucks

sales by size class, 22

standards for, 57-58, 183

M

Mix shifting, 154, 171, 177

and safety, 48, 51, 57

Model year, defined, 12 (note 4)

Multipoint fuel injection, 39, 42

N

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), 53, 58

and light trucks, 59

and rollover stability, 59

New Car Assessment Program (NCAP), 58 (note 16)

P

Performance

and fuel economy, 37

passenger cars, 20

Policy coordination and analysis, 8, 165-166

data collection to support, 5

Prototype vehicles, 45, 222-225

see also, concept vehicles

S

Safety, 5-7, 26, 47-63

and fuel economy, 5-7, 59, 60-61, 62, 63, 163

and shift to light trucks, 55, 57-58

and societal values, 7, 61-62, 63

cost of future safety standards, 159

data issues, 55-56

improvements, 7, 58-61, 63

individual vs. societal risk, 56-57, 227-231

standards, 58, 59

see also, downsizing/downweighting, fatality rates, fatality risks

Size class definition, 18 (note 9)

SRI International

fuel economy projections, 123, 124, 234

fuel economy technologies, 40, 137-139, 196, 197, 200-214

T

Technology forecasting, 26

Time frame of study, 2, 9

Turbo/supercharging, 38

Two-stroke engines, 7, 44, 221-222

V

VTEC engine, 38, 205-206, 219