We live in a changing world with multiple and evolving threats to national security, including terrorism, asymmetrical warfare (conflicts between agents with different military powers or tactics), and social unrest. Visually depicting and assessing these threats using imagery and other geographically referenced information is the mission of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA). As the nature of the threat evolves, so do the tools, knowledge, and skills needed to respond. Technological advances are moving geospatial tools and near-real-time information products into the hands of warfighters, emergency responders, and other users. New geospatial themes and interdisciplinary approaches to problem solving that could potentially improve geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) are emerging in university curricula. In addition, a new generation of students accustomed to working in flexible, socially connected, and highly integrated technological environments is bringing new capabilities into the workplace.
The challenge for NGA is to maintain a workforce that can deal with evolving threats to national security, ongoing scientific and technological advances, and changing skills and expectations of workers. The agency’s success depends in part on the availability of experts with suitable knowledge and skills. At the request of H. Greg Smith, NGA chief scientist, the National Research Council (NRC) established a committee to assess the supply of expertise in geospatial intelligence fields, identify gaps in expertise relative to NGA’s needs, and suggest ways to ensure an adequate supply of geospatial intelligence expertise over the next 20 years (see Box S.1).
This report analyzes the geospatial intelligence workforce in 10 areas defined in New Research Directions for the National-Geospatial Intelligence Agency: Workshop Report (NRC, 2010a), including 5 core areas (geodesy and geophysics, photogrammetry, remote sensing, cartographic science, geographic information systems [GIS] and geospatial analysis) and 5 emerging areas (GEOINT fusion, crowdsourcing, human geography, visual analytics, and forecasting). The availability of expertise in these areas was assessed using education and labor statistics collected from government sources. Gaps in expertise relative to NGA’s needs were identified by comparing the statistics to information on NGA’s current scientist and analyst positions and published assessments of demand for geospatial occupations. Ideas for building the necessary knowledge and skills were chosen based on a review of training programs in universities, professional societies, government agencies, and private companies.
GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE FIELDS
NGA scientists and analysts use imagery and geospatial data to depict features and activities on, above, or below the surface of the Earth to help users visualize what is happening and where. The current production and analysis of geospatial intelligence relies primarily on the techniques of the five core areas:
• Geodesy and geophysics—Geodesy is the science of mathematically determining the size, shape, and orientation of the Earth and the nature of its gravity field in four dimensions. It includes the development
An ad hoc committee will examine the need for geospatial intelligence expertise in the United States compared with the production of experts in the relevant disciplines, and discuss possible ways to ensure adequate availability of the needed expertise. In its report the committee will
1. Examine the current availability of U.S. experts in geospatial intelligence disciplines and approaches and the anticipated U.S. availability of this expertise for the next 20 years. The disciplines and approaches to be considered include NGA’s five core areas and promising research areas identified in the May 2010 NRC workshop.
2. Identify any gaps in the current or future availability of this expertise relative to NGA’s need.
3. Describe U.S. academic, government laboratory, industry, and professional society training programs for geospatial intelligence disciplines and analytical skills.
4. Suggest ways to build the necessary knowledge and skills to ensure an adequate U.S. supply of geospatial intelligence experts for the next 20 years, including NGA intramural training programs or NGA support for training programs in other venues.
The report will not include recommendations on policy issues such as funding, the creation of new programs or initiatives, or government organization.
of highly precise positioning techniques and monitoring of dynamic Earth phenomena. Geophysics is the physics of the Earth and its environment in space, including the study of geodesy, geomagnetism and paleomagnetism, seismology, hydrology, space physics and aeronomy, tectonophysics, and atmospheric science.
• Photogrammetry—the art, science, and technology of extracting reliable and accurate information about objects, phenomena, and environments from the processing of acquired imagery and other sensed data, both passively and actively, within a wide range of the electromagnetic energy spectrum.
• Remote sensing—the science of measuring some property of an object or phenomenon by a sensor that is not in physical contact with the object or phenomenon under study.
• Cartographic science—the discipline dealing with the conception, production, dissemination, and study of maps as both tangible and digital objects, and with their use and analysis.
• Geographic Information Systems and geospatial analysis—GIS refers to any system that captures, stores, analyzes, manages, and visualizes data that are linked to location. Geospatial analysis is the process of applying analytical techniques to geographically referenced data sets to extract or generate new geographical information or insight.
Recently, five research areas have emerged in academia that could improve geospatial intelligence by adding new types of information and analysis methods as well as new capabilities to help anticipate future threats:
• GEOINT fusion—the aggregation, integration, and conflation of geospatial data across time and space with the goal of removing the effects of data measurement systems and facilitating spatial analysis and synthesis across information sources.
• Crowdsourcing—a process in which individuals gather and analyze information and complete tasks over the Internet, often using mobile devices such as cellular phones. Individuals with these devices form interactive, scalable sensor networks that enable professionals and the public to gather, analyze, share, and visualize local knowledge and observations and to collaborate on the design, assessment, and testing of devices and results.
• Human geography—the science of understanding, representing, and forecasting activities of individuals, groups, organizations, and the social networks to which they belong within a geotemporal context. It includes the creation of operational technologies based on societal, cultural, religious, tribal, historical, and linguistic knowledge; local economy and infrastructure; and knowledge about evolving threats within that geotemporal window.
• Visual analytics—the science of analytic reasoning, facilitated by interactive visual interfaces. The techniques are used to synthesize information and derive insight from massive, dynamic, ambiguous, and often conflicting data.
• Forecasting—an operational research technique used to anticipate outcomes, trends, or expected future behavior of a system using statistics and modeling. A forecast is used as a basis for planning and decision making and is stated in less certain terms than a prediction.
Education and training in the core and emerging areas is provided primarily by universities and colleges, so the evolution of these areas as academic endeavors directly influences the supply of graduates with NGA-relevant skills. Disciplinary change has significantly modified the content and educational profile of NGA’s core areas over the past several decades. For example, GIS has been transformed from software systems developed by a few commercial vendors to a wide range of web services supported by open standards. The focus of geospatial analysis has shifted from supporting GIS applications to using space-time analytic measures and large amounts of data to study the dynamics of human and physical systems. Advances in sensors and image processing are yielding increasingly detailed remote sensing imagery, and sensors are starting to be linked into sensor webs, which offer new ways to monitor and explore environments remotely. More and better sensors and improved processing capabilities are also producing more detailed images of the Earth’s interior and its magnetic and gravitational fields. The resulting changes in curricula have generally taken place within the traditional university departments for remote sensing, geophysics, and GIS and geospatial analysis.
In contrast, disciplinary change in the other core areas has led to name changes, overlaps in content or methods, and/or moves to different departments. Digital imagery and automated processing have brought the methods of digital photogrammetry close to those of remote sensing. The digital transition has profoundly affected cartography by providing online methods (e.g., interactive maps) and new graphical techniques (e.g., geovisualizations) to illustrate and communicate spatial information beyond the paper map. In response, university curricula have shifted from cartography to geographic information science, a broader field encompassing the science and technology of geographic information. Traditional cartographic training in map production and the principles of graphic display have been replaced by training to analyze spatial patterns and to represent them effectively on maps and charts, often using GIS. This shift has narrowed the differences among cartography, GIS, and geospatial analysis.
Geodesy and photogrammetry were used extensively by military and intelligence agencies in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. Automation and the increased use of other methods (e.g., remote sensing, geospatial analysis) led to substantial reductions both in the number of photogrammetry and geodesy specialists in military and intelligence occupations and in the academic programs that produced them. Most important is the decline in photogrammetry, which is in danger of disappearing as a specialized course of study in universities. Geodesy, which underpins a wide range of civil applications (e.g., surveying, navigation, environmental monitoring), continues to be taught at several universities, although degrees are offered mainly at the master’s and doctorate levels. At the undergraduate level, geodesy and photogrammetry have largely been incorporated into geomatics programs, which cover the science, engineering, and art of collecting and managing geographically referenced information.
By their nature, the emerging areas are still developing as areas of research and training, and the academic infrastructure (e.g., professional societies, journals) to support their development is in its infancy. Only a handful of universities offer research programs in emerging areas and even fewer offer degree programs. Most of the programs are interdisciplinary, and student training is provided largely through individual courses often scattered among different university departments.
SUPPLY OF EXPERTISE IN GEOSPATIAL INTELLIGENCE FIELDS
The first task of the committee was to estimate the supply of experts in the core and emerging areas now and over the next 20 years. NGA draws on two sources of experts for its scientist and analyst positions: (1) new graduates in relevant fields of study, and (2) individuals working in occupations that require similar knowledge and/or skills. The committee obtained statistics on these sources from the Department of Education, which tracks the number of degrees conferred in more than 1,000 fields of study, and by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which tracks the number of jobs in more than 800 occupations. Unfortunately, the statistics are not ideal for addressing the task because the core and emerging areas are either embedded within broader fields of study and occupations or they span several
fields of study or occupations. Only one field of study (cartography) and no occupations directly match the core and emerging areas. Consequently, the committee made two estimates of the number of experts:
1. An “upper-bound” estimate encompassing new graduates in all potentially relevant fields of study and workers in all potentially relevant occupations.1 These individuals likely have some knowledge and skills relevant to a core or emerging area, and could potentially be trained for a science or analyst position at NGA.
2. A much lower estimate of the number of new graduates and workers with education or experience in a core or emerging area. These individuals may possess the desired mix of knowledge and skills without the need for substantial on-the-job training.
Supply of Now Graduates and Workers with Some Relevant Skills
For the “upper-bound” estimate, the committee chose 109 fields of study and 36 occupations that are highly relevant to the core and emerging areas, and then summed the number of graduates and workers who are U.S. citizens and permanent residents. NGA’s requirement for U.S. citizenship reduces the pool of new graduates by 7 percent, with the largest reductions at the doctorate level, and the pool of experienced workers by 12 percent, with the largest reductions in physical science and computer occupations. The statistics show that U.S. citizens and permanent residents received more than 200,000 degrees in relevant fields of study in 2009, and that U.S. citizens held more than 2.4 million jobs in relevant occupations in 2010, the latest years for which statistics were available when this report was written.
The future supply of geospatial intelligence experts depends primarily on the number of people graduating with degrees in relevant fields of study. To estimate an “upper bound” on the number of graduates over the next 20 years, the committee extrapolated 10-year trends in the number of graduates in the 109 fields of study. The uncertainty in the estimate was characterized by extrapolating the number of new graduates under a high-growth scenario (50 percent higher than the growth rate observed for 2000–2009) and a low-growth scenario (50 percent lower than the observed growth rate). The results suggest that between 312,000 and 648,000 degrees in relevant fields of study will be conferred to U.S. citizens and permanent residents in 2030.
Supply of New Graduates and Workers with Education or Training in a Core or Emerging Area
To estimate the number of new graduates with education in a core or emerging area, the committee used expert judgment to weigh the education statistics against other factors, including the number of universities offering programs in a core or emerging area, the instructional programs that produce the bulk of necessary skills, and the number of members in key professional societies. Factoring in this information yields a current number of graduates on the order of tens for photogrammetry; tens to hundreds for GEOINT fusion, crowdsourcing, human geography, and visual analytics; hundreds for geodesy, geophysics, and cartographic science; hundreds to thousands for remote sensing and forecasting; and thousands for GIS and geospatial analysis. Although accurate projections of these qualitative estimates cannot be made, past trends suggest that the number of graduates will rise over the next 20 years in all areas except photogrammetry and cartography.
Estimates of the number of workers experienced in a core or emerging area cannot be made from the broad occupation categories tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The numbers are likely low in the emerging areas because the supply of graduates has been low. For the core areas, a “lower bound” was estimated by summing the number of jobs in the four most closely related occupations: cartographers and photogrammetrists; surveying and mapping technicians; geographers; and geoscientists, except hydrologists and geographers. In 2010, there were nearly 100,000 jobs in these occupations, approximately 4 percent of the “upper-bound” estimate.
Answe to Task 1
The education and labor analysis suggests that the current number of U.S. citizens and permanent residents with education in a core or emerging area is likely on the order of tens for photogrammetry; tens to
1 Estimates were based on the 2000 version of the Department of Education’s Classification of Instructional Programs and the 2010 version of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ occupational codes.
hundreds for GEOINT fusion, crowdsourcing, human geography, and visual analytics; hundreds for geodesy, geophysics, and cartographic science; hundreds to thousands for remote sensing and forecasting; and thousands for GIS and geospatial analysis. In addition, U.S. citizens currently hold more than 100,000 jobs in occupations closely related to the core areas. If substantial onthe-job training is an option for NGA, the current labor pool increases to 200,000 new graduates and 2.4 million experienced workers. If 10-year growth trends in the “upper-bound” estimate continue, the number of new graduates could reach 312,000–649,000 by 2030.
GAPS IN EXPERTISE RELATIVE TO NGA’S NEEDS
The second task of the committee was to identify gaps in the availability of geospatial intelligence expertise relative to NGA’s needs. The expertise available to NGA depends not only on the supply of new graduates and experienced workers (discussed above) but also on the demand for knowledge and skills by NGA and other organizations. Demand for expertise by other organizations was estimated from published studies on the geospatial industry. NGA’s current needs were characterized from the number of employees in various scientist and analyst occupations, the degrees and coursework specified in NGA occupation descriptions, and the types of training offered to new employees through the NGA College. Strategic information, such as current problems finding expertise and future hiring priorities, were not available from NGA, so the committee made two assumptions: (1) that the NGA College curriculum reflects not only what topics are currently important to NGA, but also what knowledge and skills are hard to find in applicants; and (2) that NGA currently needs expertise in the five core areas and that the five emerging areas would become increasingly important in the future. Based on this information and the assumptions, the committee identified gaps in domain knowledge and skills and where to find them.
The committee identified gaps in domain knowledge relative to NGA’s needs by comparing the number of experts (new graduates with education in a core or emerging area and experienced workers in closely related occupations) with the number of scientists and analysts hired by NGA (historically several hundred per year) and their areas of expertise. The largest fractions of NGA scientists and analysts work on imagery analysis (40 percent), geospatial analysis (19 percent), and cartography (10 percent).
The comparison shows that the number of graduates and experienced workers exceeds the small number of NGA positions in all core areas. Expertise in geophysics and geospatial analysis is likely sufficient for NGA’s current and future needs. NGA hires only a small fraction of the available experts and offers little or no training in these areas to employees through the NGA College. There appear to be enough cartographers, photogrammetrists, and geodesists for NGA’s current needs. The number of professionals working in these areas is substantially higher than the number of NGA positions, and only minimal training is offered at the NGA College. However, future shortages in cartography, photogrammetry, and geodesy seem likely because the number of graduates is too small (tens to hundreds) to give NGA choices or means of meeting sudden demand. Moreover, cartography and photogrammetry programs are shrinking. Some shortages may be imminent, given that industry is already having trouble filling cartography positions and that federal agencies are concerned about a growing deficit of highly skilled geodesists. It is possible that GIS and remote sensing recruits are already hard to find, given the extensive training in these fields provided by the NGA College. Although the supply in both fields exceeds NGA’s needs, competition for GIS applications analysts is strong.
NGA has no positions in emerging areas, so any gaps in expertise will occur in the future. Emerging areas are likely to become increasingly important to NGA, in part because they are based on interdisciplinary approaches, which are needed to tackle big data and complex intelligence problems, such as those that concern coupled human-environmental systems. Such interdisciplinary approaches are also useful for many other applications, so competition, coupled with a small supply (tens to hundreds in most emerging areas), could lead to shortages in the future availability of expertise in the emerging areas.
NGA occupation descriptions specify both core competencies for all science and analyst positions and those skills required for each type of position. The core competencies stress interpersonal skills, communication, and creative thinking and adaptability, whereas the position-related skills stress working with customers and gathering, analyzing, and disseminating information. The NGA College offers several courses in interpersonal skills, written and oral communication, and critical thinking, suggesting that these core competencies are currently in short supply.
In the foreseeable future, new questions, as well as the data sets and tools needed to answer them, will continually arise. Dealing with these evolving questions and approaches requires a flexible workforce that is capable of thinking in breadth, rather than depth, through interdisciplinary training and teamwork. The ideal skill set will include spatial thinking, scientific and computer literacy, mathematics and statistics, languages and world culture, and professional ethics. Some of these skills (statistics, ethics, cultural analysis, and scientific methods) are required for particular NGA positions. Although many university programs teach some of these skills, graduates with the ideal skill set are scarce. In particular, math and computer skills remain a gap in many natural and social science programs, and spatial skills remain a gap in many computer science and engineering programs. These gaps are likely to persist until more interdisciplinary programs develop.
Individuals with knowledge and skills in the core and emerging areas are available, but NGA may not be looking for them in all the right places. NGA focuses recruiting on academic institutions that are near major NGA facilities or that have a large population of underrepresented groups. Only about one-third of these institutions, typically the large state universities, have strong programs in core or emerging areas, although many likely help meet other agency goals, such as increasing diversity. Extending recruiting to some of the example university programs identified in this report would help NGA find the geospatial intelligence expertise it needs.
Answer to Task 2
The committee’s analysis revealed both current and future gaps in knowledge and skills relative to NGA’s needs. Although the supply of experts is larger than NGA demand in all core and emerging areas, qualified GIS and remote sensing experts may already be hard to find. Long before 2030, competition and a small number of graduates will likely result in shortages in cartography, photogrammetry, geodesy, and all emerging areas. In NGA’s future workforce, which is likely to be more interdisciplinary and focused on emerging areas, the ideal skill set will include spatial thinking, scientific and computer literacy, mathematics and statistics, languages and world culture, and professional ethics. Although NGA is currently finding employees with skills in statistics, ethics, cultural analysis, and scientific methods, graduates with the ideal skill set will remain scarce until interdisciplinary and emerging areas develop. NGA could improve its chances of finding the necessary knowledge and skills by extending recruiting to the example university programs identified in this report.
CURRENT TRAINING PROGRAMS
Answer to Task 3
The third task of the committee was to describe training programs relevant to geospatial intelligence that are offered by a variety of organizations. The committee chose example programs that have a long record of accomplishment, a critical mass of high-caliber instructors, a substantial number of students, and/or that provide an opportunity to solve problems in a real-world context. Universities provide the foundation knowledge and skills needed by NGA scientists and analysts. Degree programs offer comprehensive coursework in a field of study (e.g., University of Colorado’s Department of Geography), as well as important supporting classes, such as statistics and mathematics. Some university programs teach the ability to think and work across disciplinary boundaries (e.g., Carnegie Mellon University’s Computational and Organization Science program), to combine scientific knowledge with practical workforce skills (e.g., North Carolina State University’s professional science master’s in geospatial
information science and technology), or to apply scientific knowledge to solve real-world problems (e.g., George Mason University’s master’s in geographic and cartographic sciences), sometimes in the context of national security and defense (e.g., military colleges). Other organizations offer short-term, immersive training, which is particularly useful for updating or augmenting employee skills. Courses offered by government agencies are usually targeted at agency operational needs (e.g., National Weather Service’s Warning Decision Training Branch). Short courses and conference workshops offered by professional societies and other nongovernmental organizations provide focused training and sometimes certificates on specific geospatial topics (e.g., Institute of Navigation’s short courses in positioning, navigation, and timing). Private companies commonly provide training for using the software (e.g., Environmental Systems Research Institute’s [ESRI’s] GIS software) and hardware (e.g., Gloal Positioning System receivers, photogrammetric workstations) they have developed.
WAYS TO BUILD KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS IN THE FUTURE
The fourth task of the committee was to suggest ways to build the necessary knowledge and skills to ensure an adequate U.S. supply of geospatial intelligence experts over the next 20 years. Few of the training programs mentioned above were designed specifically for NGA’s employment needs and, thus, do not offer all of the knowledge and skills needed by the agency. However, a variety of mechanisms are available for NGA to build the specialized expertise it needs in the future, including strengthening existing training programs, building core and emerging areas, and enhancing recruiting. A menu of options, of varying scope and complexity, that NGA is not currently utilizing is described below.
NGA uses existing training programs to obtain knowledge and skills, but some of these programs could be strengthened to better meet the agency’s needs. For example, in addition to sending employees to short courses at professional society conferences, NGA could encourage university professors to develop short courses in emerging areas or other subjects of interest to NGA. Setting up short courses, workshops, and seminars is relatively simple, requiring only credentialed instructors and an event organizer.
NGA seeks university training for new employees and also sends some employees to universities for advanced training in core areas through the Vector Study Program. The program allows NGA employees to attend school for three semesters (undergraduate study) or six semesters (graduate study) while receiving full salary and benefits. However, university training through the Vector Study Program is being replaced by less in-depth training at the NGA College. Increasing the number of employees who participate in the Vector Study Program would enhance employee skills in core areas, and extending the program to emerging areas would bring new skills to the agency. Allowing distance learning or shorter or longer periods of study would make the program more flexible to both NGA and its employees.
Finally, the NGA College offers approximately 170 courses to its employees and other government workers and contractors. Courses are taught by government employees and contractors. External reviews by independent experts, which are common in university departments, would help administrators ensure that the curriculum remains relevant and up to date and that the teaching staff are of the highest caliber.
Building Core and Emerging Areas
NGA provides grants to academic institutions and consortia to support research and education in geospatial intelligence fields. Grant programs could also be used to support core and emerging areas by establishing research centers and partnerships and by helping to develop curricula and academic support infrastructure. Centers provide a means to gather experts from different fields and/or different organizations to develop new research areas. They can take several forms, depending on the goals and partners in the collaboration. Government research centers attached to a university (University Affiliated Research Centers [UARCs]) are established to help an agency maintain core scientific and technologic capabilities over a long period. Research centers and partnerships may also be
established between private companies and universities and/or government agencies to support technological innovation. Centers of excellence can be housed in a university, federal agency, or private company and can focus on any topic that requires a team approach or shared facilities. They are commonly established to carry out collaborative research, create tools and data sets, and build a cohort of trained individuals in new subject areas. In virtual centers, members work together from their own institutions using conferencing and the Internet. They are easy to set up and are often established to facilitate work on short-term projects or new research areas.
By supporting university research, NGA indirectly influences the development of fields of interest. NGA could speed the development of emerging areas by sponsoring university efforts to establish core curricula and academic support infrastructure (i.e., journals, professional societies). Core curricula are particularly important in emerging areas because each program has a unique set of collaborating departments and approaches for dealing with the topics, so graduates from different programs commonly have different knowledge and skills. The academic support infrastructure for the emerging areas could be nurtured through actions such as funding a university scientist to compile and edit a special issue on an emerging topic in a leading journal or organizing sessions on emerging themes at key conferences.
NGA offers scholarships and internships to support students interested in a career in geospatial intelligence. Other ways to reach potential applicants include organizing sessions at professional society conferences to raise awareness of NGA and its technical work, and establishing a social media site with links to job listings, recruiting events, and related information to make it easy to find information about NGA careers. NGA could seek candidates with the right combination of spatial reasoning skills by engaging students in interesting problem-solving exercises (e.g., analyzing an intelligence problem) at recruiting events. In addition, career aptitude tests, administered by NGA or by various testing services, could be used to find individuals with abilities in spatial thinking, geography, or image interpretation.
Answer to Task 4
The actions described above to answer Task 4 show that a variety of mechanisms can be used to ensure the future availability of geospatial intelligence expertise. Some of the mechanisms would build expertise in the long term (e.g., UARCs, research partnerships with industry, curriculum development, academic support infrastructure), while others could provide more immediate gains (e.g., Vector Study Program expansion, virtual centers, professional society workshops and short courses, recruitment efforts). Most mechanisms would be relatively inexpensive to implement (e.g., virtual centers, curriculum development, recruiting efforts), while some could require substantial investment, depending on size and scope (e.g., UARCs, Vector Study Program expansion, centers of excellence). The need is greatest for the emerging areas, which currently produce few graduates and lack the academic infrastructure to develop quickly, but these mechanisms could also be used to build other areas of interest to NGA. Getting involved with education and training programs would also provide opportunities for NGA to influence the development of fields it relies on to carry out its mission.
The bottom line is that, despite its need for highly specialized knowledge and skills, NGA has the comparative luxury of being a small employer in the burgeoning geospatial enterprise. NGA is probably finding sufficient experts in all core areas, with the possible exception of GIS and remote sensing. However, shortages (too few experts to give NGA choices or means of meeting sudden demand) in photogrammetry, cartography, and geodesy are likely in the short term, followed by possible shortages in emerging areas in the longer term. While low numbers of experts are of concern to NGA, many mechanisms are available to build the knowledge and skills that NGA will require, such as strengthening existing training programs, building core and emerging areas, and enhancing recruiting. With attention to these areas, NGA has the ability both to meet its workforce needs and to be adaptive to a changing mission during the next 20 years, and potentially well beyond.