SENSING AND
SHAPING EMERGING
CONFLICTS
Report of a Workshop by the
National Academy of Engineering and United States Institute of Peace
Roundtable on Technology, Science, and Peacebuilding
Andrew Robertson and Steve Olson, Rapporteurs
NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: This publication has been reviewed according to procedures approved by the National Academy of Engineering report review process. Publication of signed work signifies that it is judged a competent and useful contribution worthy of public consideration, but it does not imply endorsement of conclusions or recommendations by the National Academy of Engineering. The interpretations and conclusions in such publications are those of the authors and do not purport to present the views of the council, officers, or staff of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Roundtable on Technology, Science, and Peacebuilding, the sponsor of the workshop on which this report is based, is supported by funding from the U.S. Department of Defense (JDDM-3663-1), Qualcomm, National Science Foundation (ENG-1136841), U.S. Department of Agriculture (59-0790-2-058), U.S. Department of State, and CRDF Global. Any opinions, findings, or conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the workshop participants.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-28611-4
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-28611-5
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Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
Center of Innovation for Science, Technology, & Peacebuilding
The United States Institute of Peace is the global conflict management center for the United States. Created by Congress in 1984 to be independent and nonpartisan, the Institute works to prevent, mitigate, and resolve international conflict through nonviolent means. USIP operates in the world’s most challenging conflict zones, and it leads in professional conflict management and peacebuilding by applying innovative tools, convening experts and stakeholders, supporting policymakers, and providing public education. The Institute translates its on-the-ground experience into knowledge, skills, and resources for policymakers, the US military, government and civilian leaders, nongovernmental organizations, practitioners, and citizens both here and abroad.
The Institute’s permanent headquarters and conference center are located at the northwest corner of the National Mall in Washington, DC. The facility also houses the Academy for International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding and the Global Peacebuilding Center.
WORKSHOP STEERING COMMITTEE
Prabhakar Raghavan (Cochair), Vice President of Engineering, Google
Lawrence Woocher (Cochair), Research Director, Science Applications International Corporation
Dennis King, Senior Humanitarian Affairs Analyst, Humanitarian Information Unit, US Department of State
Neil Levine, Director, Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation, US Agency for International Development
Patrick Vinck, Research Scientist, Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
Duncan Watts, Principal Researcher, Microsoft Research
Staff
Genève Bergeron, Research Assistant, US Institute of Peace
Sheldon Himelfarb, Director, US Institute of Peace
Greg Pearson, Senior Program Officer, National Academy of Engineering
Proctor P. Reid, Director, NAE Program Office
Andrew Robertson, Senior Program Officer, US Institute of Peace
Frederick S. Tipson, Special Advisor, US Institute of Peace
Acknowledgments
This summary has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen with procedures approved by the National Academies. The purpose of the NAE in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Dennis King, Senior Humanitarian Affairs Analyst, Humanitarian Information Unit, US Department of State
Jason Matheny, Program Manager, Open Source Indicators Program, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity
Joseph Bock, Director of Global Health Training, Eck Institute for Global Health, Notre Dame University
Rita Grossman-Vermaas, Senior International Policy Advisor, Logos Technologies Inc.
Patrick Meier, Director of Social Innovation, Qatar Computing Research Group
Sharon Morris, Director, Conflict Management Group, Mercy Corps
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the views expressed in the report, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Venkatesh (Venky) Narayanamurti, Benjamin Peirce Professor of Technology and Public Policy, Harvard School of Engineering and Applied Science, and director, Science, Technology and Public Policy Program, Harvard Kennedy School. Appointed by NAE, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authors and NAE.
Contents
The Role of Information in Sensing and Shaping Conflict
The Technological Capabilities
Perspective from a Social Scientist
Big Data for Conflict Prevention
Technological Challenges for Peacebuilding
3 USES OF TECHNOLOGY IN THE FIELD
Exerting Control over Information