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Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume I, Review and Recommendations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1835.
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References

Allin, Susan, and Doyle, Pat 1990 Analysis of the Quality of SIPP as It Pertains to the Food Stamp Program. Final report to the Food and Nutrition Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Washington, D.C.: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc.

Anderson, Gordon 1989 Capital Stock Levels, Tax Capacity Exhaustion and Cost of Capital Endogeneity. University of Toronto, Canada.

Anderson, Joseph M. 1990 Micro-macro linkages in economic models. Pp. 187-220 in Gordon H. Lewis and Richard C. Michel, eds., Microsimulation Techniques for Tax and Transfer Analysis. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press.

Andrews, Richard W., Birdsal L., William C., Gentner, Frederick J., and Spivey, W. Allen 1987 Validation Methods for Microeconomic Simulation. Report prepared for the Social Security Administration, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, D.C.

Arrow, Kenneth J. 1980 Microdata simulation: Current status, problems, prospects. Pp. 253-265 in Robert H. Haveman and Kevin Hollenbeck, eds., Microeconomic Simulation Models for Public Policy Analysis. Vol. II, Sectoral, Regional, and General Equilibrium Models. New York: Academic Press.

Arthur, W. Brian 1990 Positive feedbacks in the economy. Scientific American 262(2):92-99.

Atrostic, B. K., and Nunns, James R. 1988 Measuring Tax Burden: A Historical Perspective. Paper presented to the 50th Anniversary Conference of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, Washington, D.C.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume I, Review and Recommendations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1835.
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Bailar, Barbara 1983 Error profiles: Uses and abuses. Pp. 117-130 in Tommy Wright, ed., Statistical Methods and the Improvement of Data Quality. New York: Academic Press.

Baseline Data Corporation 1984 The Federal Statistical System, 1980 to 1985. Report prepared for the Congressional Research Service in response to the Committee on Government Operations, U.S. House of Representatives. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Beebout, Harold 1980 Food stamp policy modeling: An application of MATH. Pp. 45-72 in Robert H. Haveman and Kevin Hollenbeck, eds., Microeconomic Simulation Models for Public Policy Analysis. Vol. 1, Distributional Impacts. New York: Academic Press.

1986 Evaluating Reagan Administration social program changes: Two applications of MATH. Pp. 83-97 in G. H. Orcutt, J. Merz, and H. Quinke, eds., Microanalytic Simulation Models to Support Social and Financial Policy. Amsterdam:Elsevier Science Publishers.

Beebout, Harold, and Grossman, Jean Baldwin 1985 A Forecasting System for AFDC Caseloads and Costs: Executive Summary. Prepared by Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. AFDC and Related Income Maintenance Studies, Office of Family Assistance, Social Security Administration. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Beebout, Harold, and Haworth, Lauren 1989 Microsimulation Estimates Versus Reality: A Case Study. Unpublished memorandum. Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, D.C.

Bergmann, Barbara R. 1990 Micro-to-macro simulation: A primer with a labor market example. The Journal of Economic Perspectives 4(1):99-116.

Berkovec, James, and Fullerton, Don 1989 The general equilibrium effects of inflation on housing consumption and investment. The American Economic Review 79(2):277-282.

Betson, David M. 1988 How Reliable Are Conclusions Derived from Microsimulation Models? Paper prepared for the Workshop on Prospects and Limits of Simulation Models in Tax and Transfer Policy, Giessen, Federal Republic of Germany.

Betson, David, Greenberg, David, and Kasten, Richard 1980 A microsimulation model for analyzing alternative welfare reform proposals: An application to the Program for Better Jobs and Income. Pp. 153-188 in Robert H. Haveman and Kevin Hollenbeck, eds., Microeconomic Simulation Models for Public Policy Analysis. Vol. I, Distributional Impacts. New York: Academic Press.

Birnbaum, Jeffrey H., and Murray, Alan S. 1987 Showdown at Gucci Gulch-Lawmakers, Lobbyists, and the Unlikely Triumph of Tax Reform. New York: Vintage Books.

Boskin, Michael J. 1990 Improving the Quality of Economic Statistics. Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee Hearing on the Quality of Federal Statistical Programs, March 1, 1990, Washington, D.C.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume I, Review and Recommendations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1835.
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Brieman, L. 1988 Submodel Selection and Evaluation in Regression: The Conditional Case and Little Bootstrap. Technical Report No. 169. Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley.

Bristol, Ralph B., Jr. 1988 Tax modeling and the policy environment of the 1990s. Pp. 115-122 in Statistics of Income Bulletin. 75th Anniversary Issue. Statistics of Income Division, Internal Revenue Service. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Brooks, C. A., and Bailar, B. A. 1978 An Error Profile: Employment as Measured by the Current Population Survey. Statistical Policy Working Paper No. 3. Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology, Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce.

Bulmer, Martin 1986 Social Science and Social Policy. Winchester, Mass.: Allen & Unwin.

Bulmer, Martin, ed. 1987 Social Science Research and Government: Comparative Essays on Britain and the United States. New York:Cambridge University Press.

Bureau of the Census 1970 1970 Census Users' Guide. Part 1. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce.

1988 Measuring the Effect of Benefits and Taxes on Income and Poverty: 1986. Current Population Reports, Consumer Income, Series P-60, No. 164-RD-1. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce.

1989a Money Income and Poverty Status in the United States: 1988. Current Population Reports, Consumer Income, Series P-60, No. 166. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce.

1989b Poverty in the United States: 1987. Current Population Reports, Consumer Income, Series P-60, No. 163. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce.

1990a Current Population Survey, March 1989 Tape Technical Documentation. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce.

1990b Statistical Abstract of the United States-1990. 110th Edition. Washington, D.C. : U.S. Department of Commerce.

1991 Statistical Abstract of the United States-1991. 111th Edition. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce.

Burkhauser, R., and Quinn, J. 1981 The Relationship Between Mandatory Retirement Age Limits and Pension Rules in the Retirement Decision. Working paper 1348-03. The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.

Burtless, Gary 1989 Labor Supply Response to Microsimulation Models. Paper prepared for the Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs. The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.

Butz, William P. 1984 Data Confidentiality and Public Perceptions: The Case of the European Censuses. Paper presented to the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, Minn.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume I, Review and Recommendations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1835.
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Butz, William P., and Plewes, Thomas J. 1990 Moving the Current Population Survey into the 21st century. In Proceedings of the Section on Survey Research Methods. Alexandria, Va.: American Statistical Association.

Caldwell, Steven B. 1989 Strategies for Aging a Population. Paper prepared for the Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs. Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y.

Caplan, N., Morrison, A., and Stambaugh, R.J. 1976 The Use of Social Science Knowledge in Policy Decisions at the National Level. Institute for Social Research. Ann Arbor, Mich.: University of Michigan.

Carlson, Steven 1989 FNS Microsimulation Case Study. Paper prepared for the Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs. Food and Nutrition Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C.

Cartwright, William S. 1989 Projections of Future Health Care Expenditures. Paper prepared for a policy forum sponsored by the Employee Benefit Research Institute-Education and Research Fund, Washington, D.C.

Chollet, Deborah J. 1990 Microsimulation Models in Health Services Research. Paper prepared for the Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs. Georgia State University, Atlanta, Ga.

Cilke, James, and Wyscarver, Roy A. 1990 The Treasury Individual Income Tax Simulation Model. Office of Tax Analysis. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Citro, Constance F. 1989 The Role of Static Microsimulation in Policy Analysis: The Case of DHHS/ASPE in the 1980s; the Case of USDA/FNS in the Late 1980s. Paper prepared for the Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs, Committee on National Statistics, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.

Citro, Constance F., and Beebout, Harold 1984 Effects of the 1981 OBRA Welfare Changes and the Recession on Poverty. Paper prepared for the Congressional Research Service. Washington, D.C.: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc.

Citro, Constance F., and Cohen, Michael L., eds. 1985 The Bicentennial Census: New Directions for Methodology in 1990. Panel on Decennial Census Methodology, Committee on National Statistics, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

Clogg, Clifford, Massagli, Michael, and Eliason, Scott 1986 Population undercount as an issue in social research. Pp. 335-343 in Proceedings of the Bureau of the Census Second Annual Research Conference. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce.

Coder, John F. No date The March Current Population Survey Earnings Imputation System: An Explanation and Evaluation. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume I, Review and Recommendations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1835.
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Coleman, Michael J. 1988 Statistics of income studies of individual income and taxes. Pp. 63-80 in Statistics of Income Bulletin.75th Anniversary Issue. Statistics of Income Division, Internal Revenue Service. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Committee on National Statistics 1989 The Survey of Income and Program Participation: An Interim Assessment. Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

Congressional Budget Office 1988 The Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act of 1988. Staff working paper, prepared by Sandra Christensen and Rick Kasten. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

1989a The Economic and Budget Outlook: An Update. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

1989b Fiscal Federalism and the Partnership Act of 1987. Special study prepared by Janice Peskin. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office .

1989c Updated Estimates of Medicare's Catastrophic Drug Insurance Program. Special study prepared by Stephen H. Long and Nancy Gordon. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

1989d Work and Welfare: The Family Support Act of 1988. Staff working paper, prepared by Janice Peskin. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

1990 Physician Payment Reform Under Medicare. Prepared by Sandra Christensen and Scott Harrison. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

1991 The Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 1992-1996. A report to the Senate and House Committees on the Budget. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Cottingham, Phoebe H., and Ellwood, David T., eds. 1989 Welfare Policy for the 1990s. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.

Council of Economic Advisers 1990 Improving the Quality of Economic Statistics. Press release. Executive Office of the President, Washington, D.C.

1991 FY 1992 Economics Statistics Initiative: Improving the Quality of Economic[s] Statistics. Press release. Executive Office of the President, Washington, D.C.

Dabrowski, Christopher E., Fong, Elizabeth N., and Yang, Deyuan. 1990 Object Database Management Systems: Concepts and Features. NIST special publication 500-179. National Computer Systems Laboratory, National Institute of Standards and Technology. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce .

Darby, Michael R. 1990 Prepared statement. Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee Hearing on the Quality of Federal Statistical Programs, March 1, 1990, Washington, D.C.

David, Martin H. 1990 Data-Driven Social Policy, Data-Driven Social Research: A Reality in the 1990's? Paper presented to the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.

1991 The science of data sharing: Documentation. In Joan E. Sieber, ed., Sharing

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume I, Review and Recommendations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1835.
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Social Science Data: Advantages and Challenges. Newbury Park, Calif.: Sage Publications.

David, Martin H., ed. 1983 Technical, Conceptual, and Administrative Lessons of the Income Survey Development Program (ISDP): Papers Presented at a Conference. New York: Social Science Research Council.

David, Martin, and Robbin, Alice 1989 Database design for large-scale complex data. In Computing Science and Statistics: Proceedings of the 21st Symposium on the Interface. Alexandria, Va.: American Statistical Association.

1990 Computation using information systems for complex data. In Proceedings of the Conference on Advanced Computing for the Social Sciences. Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Oak Ridge National Laboratories.

David, Martin, Little, Roderick J. A., Samuhel, Michael E., and Triest, Robert K. 1986 Alternative methods for CPS income imputation. Journal of the American Statistical Association 81(393):28-41.

Davidson, Roger H. 1976 Congressional committees: The toughest customers. Policy Analysis Spring: 299-323.

de Leeuw, Frank, and Struyk, Raymond J. 1975 The Web of Urban Housing—Analyzing Policy with a Market Simulation Model. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press.

Doyle, Pat 1990 Food Stamp Program Participation Rates: August 1985. Prepared by Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., for the Food and Nutrition Service. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Doyle, Pat, and Trippe, Carole 1989 Validation of the Food Stamp Microsimulation Model. Final report to the Food and Nutrition Service, U. S. Department of Agriculture. Washington, D.C.: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc.

Doyle, Pat, Trippe, Carole, Huff, Ann, and Coffin, Kirsten, eds. 1990 MATH Technical Description: Current Services Files. Washington, D.C.: Mathematica Policy Research, Inc.

Dyke, Bennett, and MacCluer, Jean Walters, eds. 1973 Computer Simulation in Human Population Studies. New York: Academic Press.

Economic Policy Council 1987 Report of the Working Group on the Quality of Economic Statistics to the Economic Policy Council. Executive Office of the President, Washington, D.C.

Efron, Bradley 1979 Bootstrap methods: Another look at the jackknife. Annals of Statistics 7:1-26.

1982 The jackknife, the bootstrap, and other resampling plans. SIAM-CBMS No. 38.

Efron, Bradley, and Morris, Carl 1973 Stein's estimation rule and its competitors—An empirical Bayes approach. Journal of the American Statistical Association 67:130-139.

Eliasson, Gunnar 1985 The Firm and Financial Markets in the Swedish Micro to Macro Model:

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume I, Review and Recommendations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1835.
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Theory, Model and Verification. Industrial Institute for Economic and Social Research, Stockholm, Sweden.

Family Support Administration 1988 Characteristics and Financial Circumstances of AFDC Recipients—FY 1987. Social Security Administration. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Fay, Robert E., Passel, Jeffrey S., and Robinson, Gregory J. 1988 The Coverage of the Population in the 1980 Census. 1980 Census of Population and Housing Evaluation Research Report No. PHC80-E4. Bureau of the Census. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce.

Fein, David 1989 The Social Sources of Census Omission: Racial and Ethnic Differences in Omission Rates in Recent U.S. Censuses. Dissertation submitted to Sociology Department, Princeton University.

Fisher, Elliot, Baron, John A., Malenka, David J., et al. 1990 Overcoming potential pitfalls in the use of Medicare data for epidemiological research. American Journal of Public Health 80(12):1487-1490.

Food and Nutrition Service 1986 Food Stamp Research: Results from the Income Survey Development Program and the Promise of the Survey on Income and Program Participation . Prepared by Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., for the Office of Analysis and Evaluation. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture.

1988 Characteristics of Food Stamp Households. Office of Analysis and Evaluation. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture.

1990 Food Stamp Policy Issues: Results from Recent Research. Papers presented at the Food and Nutrition Service Research Conference. Office of Analysis and Evaluation. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Fuerbringer, Jonathan 1990 A rusty statistical compass for U.S. policy mappers. Chance: New Directions for Statistics and Computing 3(1):36-38,56.


General Accounting Office 1977 An Evaluation of the Use of the Transfer Income Model—TRIM—to Analyze Welfare Programs. Report to the Congress. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

1979 Guidelines for Model Evaluation. Exposure Draft. Washington, D.C.

1984 Status of the Statistical Community After Sustaining Budget Reductions. Staff study. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Giannarelli, Linda 1989 Aging the 1983 CPS File to 1987. Unpublished memorandum. Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.

1990 Looking at the Quality of the 1987 Baseline AFDC Run, and the Quality of the March 1988 CPS. Unpublished memorandum. Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.

Gilford, Dorothy M., ed. 1988 The Aging Population in the Twenty-First Century: Statistics for Health Policy. Panel on Statistics for an Aging Population, Committee on National Statistics, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

Gillette, Robert 1989 Measures of Goodness of Fit for Extrapolations: Initial Results Using the

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume I, Review and Recommendations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1835.
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Individual Tax Model Data Base. OTA paper no. 62. Office of Tax Analysis, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C.

Grannemann, Thomas W. 1989 Modeling Behavioral Responses to Health Policy Changes. Paper prepared for the Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs. University of Colorado, Denver, Colo.

Grossman, Jean B. 1985 The Technical Report for the AFDC Forecasting Project for the Social Security Administration/Office of Family Assistance. Prepared by Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. AFDC and Related Income Maintenance Studies, Office of Family Assistance, Social Security Administration. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Grossman, Jean B., and Watts, Harold W. 1982 The Structural Needs of Microsimulation Modeling of Labor Supply and Retirement Behavior. A Report to the Economic Studies Program, Program for Research on Retirement and Aging. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution.

Haas, Lawrence J. 1990 Tax report: Protection squad. National Journal May 26:1270-1274.

Hammel, E. A., Wachter, K. W., and McDaniel, C. K. 1981 The kin of the aged in A.D. 2000: The chickens come home to roost. Pp. 1139 in Sara B. Kiesler, James N. Morgan, and Valerie Kincade Oppenheimer, eds., Aging: Social Change. New York: Academic Press.

Hammel, E. A., Hutchinson, D. W., Wachter, K. W., Lundy, R. T., and Deuel, R. Z. 1976 The SOCSIM Demographic-Sociological Microsimulation Program Operating Manual. Institute of International Studies Research Series, No. 27. University of California, Berkeley.

Hanson, Kenneth A., and Robinson, Sherman 1988 Equilibrium and Disequilibrium in Economy wide Microsimulation Models. Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C.

Hanushek, Eric A. 1990 The policy research market. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 9(2): 146-154.

Haveman, Robert H. 1987 Poverty Policy and Poverty Research: The Great Society and the Social Sciences. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.

Haveman, Robert H., and Lacker, Jeffrey 1984 Discrepancies in Projecting Future Public and Private Pension Benefits: A Comparison and Critique of Two Micro-Data Simulation Models. Institute for Research on Poverty Special Report 36. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.

Haveman, Robert H., Hollenbeck, Kevin, Betson, David, and Holmer Martin 1980 A microeconomic simulation model for analyzing the regional and distributional effects of tax-transfer policy: An analysis of the Program for Better Jobs and Income. Pp. 137-162 in Robert H. Haveman and Kevin Hollenbeck, eds., Microeconomic Simulation Models for Public Policy Analysis. Vol. II, Sectoral, Regional, and General Equilibrium Models. New York: Academic Press.

Havens, John, and Clayton-Matthews, Alan 1989 The MRPIS Model: Notes for Presentation to Committee on National

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume I, Review and Recommendations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1835.
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Statistics. Prepared for the Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs. Social Welfare Research Institute, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Mass.

Havens, John, Bluestone, Barry, Fournier, Stephen, and Pepin, Carol 1985 The Microeconomic Impacts of Macroeconomic Fiscal Policy, 1981-1985. MRPIS Project, Social Welfare Research Institute, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Mass.

Hayes, Brian M. 1989 An Object Oriented Programming Implementation of a Taxation and Benefit Program. Discussion paper. London School of Economics.

Hayes, Richard L. 1982 An Evaluation of Forecasting Accuracy in the Microsim Model. Task 1 Interim Report. The Policy Research Group, Washington, D.C.

Health Care Financing Administration 1990 Current Beneficiary Survey: Facts. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, D.C.

Hellwig, Otto 1989a A Chronology of Microsimulation Models and Software. Augsburg University, Federal Republic of Germany.

1989b Microsimulation Software: State of the Art and Outlook. Paper presented at Softstat '89, Mannheim, Federal Republic of Germany.

Hendricks, Gary, and Holden, Russell 1976a The role of microanalytic simulation models in projecting OASDI costs. In Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section. Washington, D.C.: American Statistical Association.

1976b A Report on the Variance in Simulated Earnings Histories Produced by DYNASIM. Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.

Hoagland, William 1989 Congress's Use of Statistics. Presentation to the Washington Statistical Society, May 1989.

Holahan, John, and Zedlewski, Sheila 1989 Insuring Low-Income Americans Through Medicaid Expansion. Draft report to the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.

Holden, Russell 1977 Components of Variation in Longitudinal Earnings History. Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.

Horvitz, D. G., Giesbrecht, F. G., Shah, B. V., and Lachenbruch, P.A. 1971 POPSIM, A Demographic Simulation Program. Monograph 12. Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, N.C.

ICF, Inc. 1987 Microsimulation Models of Public Assistance: Similarities and Differences. Report to the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Washington, D.C.: ICF, Inc.

Income Working Group 1990 Income Data for the Elderly: Guidelines. Draft report. Interagency Forum on Aging-Related Statistics, Washington, D.C.

Ingram, Gregory K., Kain, John F., and Ginn, J. Royce 1972 The Detroit Prototype of the NBER Urban Simulation Model. National Bureau of Economic Research. New York: Columbia University Press.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume I, Review and Recommendations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1835.
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Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 1988 IEEE Standard for Software User Documentation. Software Engineering Technical Committee of the IEEE Computer Society. New York: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc.

Internal Revenue Service 1989 Selected Background Papers. Volume 1. Workshop on Tax Microsimulation Modeling for Business, May 11-12, 1989. Statistics of Income Division, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C.

Jabine, Thomas B., King, Karen E., and Petroni, Rita J. 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation: Quality Profile. Bureau of the Census. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce.

Jacobs, Bruce 1989 Assessing the Affordability of Private Long-Term Care Insurance: Some Cautionary Thoughts. Testimony before the U.S. Bipartisan Commission on Comprehensive Health Care, Washington, D.C.

Jefferson, Linda G. 1983 Validation of Mean Earnings and Earnings Distributions Simulated by DYNASIM for 1983. Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.

Johnson, Jon, and Zedlewski, Sheila R. 1982 The Dynamic Simulation of Income Model (DYNASIM). Vol. II, The Jobs and Benefits History Model. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press.

Johnson, Jon, Wertheimer, Richard, and Zedlewski, Sheila R. 1983 The Dynamic Simulation of Income Model (DYNASIM). Vol. I, The Family and Earnings History Model. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press.

Joint Economic Committee 1990 Economic Indicators: December 1990. Prepared by the Council of Economic Advisers. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Juster, F. Thomas 1988 The State of U.S. Economic Statistics: Current and Prospective Quality, Policy Needs, and Resources. Paper presented to the 50th Anniversary Conference of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, Washington, D.C.


Kadane, Joseph B. 1978 Statistical problems of merged data files. Paper 6 in Compilation of OTA Papers. Vol. I. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Kalleberg, Arne L., ed. 1986 America at Work: National Surveys of Employees and Employers. Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Labor. Advisory Group on a 1986 Quality of Employment Survey. New York: Social Science Research Council.

Kasten, Richard A., and Sammartino, Frank J. 1990 A method for simulating the distribution of combined federal taxes using census, tax return, and expenditure microdata. Pp. 173-186 in Gordon H. Lewis and Richard C. Michel, eds., Microsimulation Techniques for Tax and Transfer Analysis. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press.

Kennell, David L., and Sheils, John F. 1986 The ICF Pension and Retirement Income Simulation Model (PRISM) with the ICF/Brookings Long-Term Care Financing Model. Draft technical documentation, ICF, Inc., Washington, D.C.

1990 PRISM: Dynamic simulation of pension and retirement income. Pp. 137-172 in Gordon H. Lewis and Richard C. Michel, eds., Microsimulation

Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume I, Review and Recommendations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1835.
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Techniques for Tax and Transfer Analysis. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Institute Press.

Kennell, David, et al. 1988 Financing of Long-Term Care. Final report submitted to the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Washington, D.C.: Lewin/ICF, Inc.

Klein, Lawrence R. 1986 Macroeconomic modeling and forecasting. Pp. 95-110 in Neil J. Smelser and Dean R. Gerstein, eds., Behavioral and Social Science: Fifty Years of Discovery. Committee on Basic Research in the Behavioral and Social Sciences, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

Kormendi, Roger C., and Meguire, Philip 1988 Dynamic Validation of the TRIM Welfare Simulation Model. Draft report to the Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.

Kraemer, Kenneth L., Dickhoven, Siegfried, Tierney, Susan Fallows, and King, John Leslie 1987 Datawars—The Politics of Modeling in Federal Policy making. New York: Columbia University Press.

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Levitan, Sar A., and Gallo, Frank 1989 Workforce Statistics: Do We Know What We Think We Know—And What Should We Know? Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.

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Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume I, Review and Recommendations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1835.
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McNees, Stephen K. 1989 Why do forecasts differ? New England Economic Review January/February: 42-54.

1990 Man vs. model? The role of judgment in forecasting. New England Economic Review July/August:41-52.

Madow, William G., Olkin, Ingram, and Rubin, Donald B., eds. 1983 Incomplete Data in Sample Surveys. 3 vols. Panel on Incomplete Data, Committee on National Statistics, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council. New York: Academic Press.

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Manton, Kenneth G., and Stallard, Eric 1990 Incorporating risk factors into projections of the size and health status of the U.S. elderly population. In K. G. Manton, B. Singer, and R. Suzman, eds., Forecasting the Health of the Old. New York: Oxford University Press.

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1991 Statistical and Measurement Issues in Assessing the Welfare Status of Aged Individuals and Populations. Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Durham, N.C.

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Suggested Citation:"References." National Research Council. 1991. Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume I, Review and Recommendations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1835.
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This book reviews the uses and abuses of microsimulation models—large, complex models that produce estimates of the effects on program costs and who would gain and who would lose from proposed changes in government policies ranging from health care to welfare to taxes.

Volume 1 is designed to guide future investment in modeling and analysis capability on the part of government agencies that produce policy estimates. It will inform congressional and executive decision makers about the strengths and weaknesses of models and estimates and will interest social scientists in the potential of microsimulation techniques for basic and applied research as well as policy uses.

The book concludes that a "second revolution" is needed to improve the quality of microsimulation and other policy analysis models and the estimates they produce, with a special emphasis on systematic validation of models and communication of validation results to decision makers.

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