Renewable Resources: A Report to the Committee on Natural Resources of the National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council (1962)

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FIRST SESSION Opening Discussion Dr. Bronk: The NAS-NRC has from time to time in the past con- sidered various aspects of the natural resources problem, but never the totality, in part because it has not been clear just how the findings might be utilized effectively. Now, with the President's Science Advisory Committee and the Federal Council, it may well be possible. Cooperation has been good between these groups and the parent committee of the NAS- NRC. In renewable resources we are concerned with every- thing from fossil fuels to recreation. There have been ses- sions on water resources and on energy already. After this present sector and others that remain have been considered, it will then be necessary to see what can be done to put the whole together. Among others, Philip Morse, of MIT, has agreed to see what can be done with the techniques of oper- ations research to synthesize the material into a final re- port. Dr. Weiss: In contrast to the elaborate reports which have dwelt on natural resources in the past, but which have had no con- tinuity, we need a return to the point of view of the old-time medical practitioner, a sort of continuous process of exami- nation, with perhaps an annual check-up. Of first importance is the need to recognize interrelationships, to tie together the loose ends of individual problems. We should, for ex- ample see whether, in tropical areas, solar energy might better be used for refrigeration and prevention of food spoil- age than for cooking. What will be the effect of tidal power development on fisheries? Will conversion to nuclear power influence the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere? We must point to the subtle interrelations of biological organisms and their environments. What will shifts in CO£ do to plants and pests? Will the removal of materials from ocean waters af- fect marine organisms? Will radioactive wastes substantially -19-

raise soil temperatures, and with what effect on soil organ- isms? In considerations of this kind we are dealing with a balance sheet, an assessment of interacting, often opposing, factors. Dr. Bronk: We should not be concerned only with a study of what are the resources, or what are the problems, but more with what can be done to conserve and improve the use of re- sources, in the hope that the report will lead to action by government and private agencies. Food Production— Plants Dr. W. H. Allaway, Plant, Soil & Nutrition Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Ithaca, N. Y. Plants have many uses other than as food, and much that we know about them has come from workers with other interests in mind. On the basis of present knowledge, e.g., use of fertilizers, plant protection measures, irrigation, etc. , it is possible greatly to increase food production. For Japan, increases would be rel- atively slight; in the United States and northwest Europe, some- what larger; for Africa, enormous. It will be a question of appli- cation for some time to come — but not, however, for all time. We now know something of nearly all the important aspects of plant growth, but in no case enough for selective control. We cannot change the chemical content of a plant, but must look in- stead for species which already have what we want; and the range now available to use is not so very great. Plant breeding has worked wonders in terms of disease resistance, adaptability to machine planting and harvesting, and so on, but wherever the en- vironment is unfavorable, it has been necessary, with the possible exception of rice in swamps, to try changing the environment, as by irrigation and drainage, rather than the plant. The potential for plant breeding is known for many species of current economic value, but most non-economic plants have yet to be scrutinized in depth. Success in converting Bermuda grass from a "cotton-patch weed** to an economic crop of the Southeast suggests the possibility of many comparable projects. -20-

In future food shortages, there will be a shift from animal to plant material in the diet, which in turn raises the vexing question of proteins or, more precisely, amino acid distribution. We can control to a considerable extent the amount of protein per acre with modern agricultural techniques, but can do little about kind, i.e., amino acid composition. In the latter instance, we have to grow a different plant species or variety. While, for example, soybean protein can be produced on one-tenth of the acreage required for a comparable amount of beef, the amino acid constitution is less favorable, and it should not be forgotten that in passing the food supply through an animal link in the chain, it may acquire an ad- ditional safety factor. In the case of strontium 90, for example, the animal has considerable discrimination in favor of calcium. Not only this, but use of animals permits the conversion of non-edible materials, inasmuch as ruminants are insensitive to protein quality, and the production of human food on non-arable lands. In view of the relative abundance of land per capita in the United States, we should plan toward a large fraction of animal foods in the diet for some time to come, but we do have this safety factor if we need it. The U. S. Department of Agriculture and state experiment stations, plus commercial seedsmen, dominate the plant-breeding work in this country; basic research in genetics, per se, has a broader base, including some private organizations. Plant physi- ology and plant biochemistry, as well, are centered in the experi- ment stations, but with comparatively greater support from the non-land grant institutions. The more liberal policies recently adopted by the Public Health Service have assisted markedly in supporting this expansion in private universities. Plan ecology, at least crop ecology, is dominated by the needs of the public-lands agencies for information and, especially, for trained personnel as it relates to forestry and range management. Taxonomy is poorly supported, perhaps as an unavoidable consequence of the gradual maturation of science into other phases. Without belaboring the point, it is nonetheless true that applied phases have received most of the attention in the past, a trend partially reversed by such pro- grams as the U.S. Department of Agriculture pioneering labora- tories. Looking to the future, we need to know more of the mecha- nisms of metabolic and genetic processes in plants, of the capture and transfer of energy, the synthesis of amino acids and proteins, the uptake of nutrients, the structure of the reactants. The present ceiling on growth or yield per acre can be broken only by finding out what is now limiting in different environments — CC^, moisture, -21-

intensity of incident radiation, and so on. It would be of the great- est importance to know the biochemistry of adaptations to unfavor- able moisture, temperature, etc., in the hope that plants suitable for use in that great part of the globe which is inhospitable (arid, cold, saline, etc.) could be produced. We need to identify the fac- tors that determine nutritional quality as measured by animal per- formance in intensive systems. Modern agriculture converts an area which is initially very diverse into one of a single plant spe- cies. This may lead to disturbing failures, as in the Low Countries, where intensive grazing has resulted in higher incidence of tetany, possibly because of poor cation balance. In the northwest United States, a trend from native grass and sedge pasture to improved species often leads to increased occurrence of muscular dystrophy in animals. Much more needs to be known of these delicately bal- anced environments. Finally, it would be very worth-while if we had some techniques for increasing the genetic variability of plant populations, comparable to the phenomenon of transduction in microorganisms, which would open up new areas to plant breeding. Discussion of Allaway's Presentation Allaway: On the question whether the amino acid balance might not be better, as for example richer in lysine, in the early stages of growth, it appears that, in corn, as we increase the protein with addition of nitrogen fertilizer and other techniques, the later increments are, indeed, less desirable in respect to amino acid make-up. Perhaps as the seeds are formed there is a change in protein quality, but we do not have much to say, managementwise, even here. It would be well to know more of protein synthesis in plants. Weiss: Proteins do change as differentiation proceeds, and if we understood this adequately it might be possible to catch a more proficient stage. Russell: Earlier-cut forage is used more efficiently than later- cut material, but it becomes a question of balancing quantity against quality; to get the two together is the goal to be sought. Sebrell: Investigations at the American University in Beirut sug- gest that sprouted beans have a higher lysine content than do mature dry beans, a fact which could be easily and ob- viously exploited. -22-

Allaway: It appears that the effect of mineral nutrition is to alter the amounts of free amino acids, but these are usually less than 15 per cent of the total and, even more disturbing, there are not many of the sulfur amino acids among the un- combined forms; it is these that are of critical importance. Byerly: In sugar beets, in the push for higher yields it has been shown that as the yield increases there is a percentage drop in sugar. But more critical is the question of the levels of nitrates in the soil. Allaway: At sub-lethal levels, nitrates or nitrites interfere somewhat with the conversion of carotene to Vitamin A in animals. What happens to groundwater in an enclosed basin at optimum fertilizer levels for plants? Russell: Already, nitrates in the groundwater of Long Island are measurably increasing. There does not appear to be any concern, however, for the development of desalination of river waters, even if it could be selectively done, for nitrate accumulation here would be generally beneficial, and nitrates are not importantly present in waters ordinarily considered for desalination. Allaway: Contrary to much popular opinion, utilization of solar energy by algae is really no more efficient than that of higher plants, but from an engineering standpoint it is considerably easier to supply algae with additional CO2- Lemon, at Cornell, has shown that at times, in a New York cornfield, in full sunlight on a windless day, it is CO2 that is limiting. Other factors come in if the weather is windy or cloudy. Thornthwaite: To the extent that CO2 is evolved in the soil, re- duction in air movement would be helpful — a situation that might pertain under special conditions, as in shade- grown tobacco fields. Byerly: Could thermophilic strains of higher plants be developed, comparable to those in algae, and thus gain an advantage? Allaway: There have been some experiments at Cal Tech on the use of chemical treatments, rather than genetics, to extend the temperature range. -23-

Food Production — Animals Dr. T. C. Byerly Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture (Note: Dr. Byerly distributed charts on: (1) the world food deficit; (2) livestock of the world; (3) 1958 milk production; (4) 1961 research on livestock; and (5) 1959 efficiency of livestock production. The following outline served as a framework for the presentation.) Problems in Animal Food Production 1. Efficiency of feed conversion a. role of lignin b. heat increment c. appetite d. intermediate metabolism e. interaction f. forage processing 2. Quality of product a. the fat problem: (1) ruminants — nonfat milk solids (2) monogastric animals b. fleshing c. tenderness d. flavor 3. Genetic capacity a. systematic manipulation b. disease resistance c. nature of heterosis d. chemical and physiological genetics e. gene interaction 4. Developmental biology a. fertilization b. implantation -24-

c. embryo and its environment d. development of protective mechanisms 5. Host-parasite interaction a. compatibility b. RNA viruses c. protozoan parasites d. metazoan parasites e. antibiosis f . immunization g. Petersen milk 6. Reproductive physiology (sheep) a. ovulation b. germ plasm storage c. environment, interactions, and underyling hormonal, neural, and other mechanisms. d. parturition e. lactation 7. Product technology a. dehydration and dehydrofreezing b. radiation sterilization c. antibiotic preservation d. chemical preservation e. curing - phosphates, etc. f . enzyme treatment g. role of glucose and ante-mortal treatment h. (See Supplement A. [ R. L. Olson]) 8. Land use a. profit b. recreational and other competitive uses for land c. low productivity of range and pasture 9. Marketing a. costs and margins -25-

10. Economics a. costs and returns b. labor efficiency c. integration 11. Social and behavioral biology a. peck order b. population density re disease Generally, we include animal proteins in the diet because we like them. They do provide a better array of amino acids than plant proteins and most of the vitamin B-12 supply. Chart 1 takes as a standard seven grams of animal protein per person per day, which is but 10 per cent of United States consumption. In most Asiatic countries, animal protein consumption is very low. There are three kinds of problems in livestock pro- duction: efficiencies of feed conversion and of production, pro- tection against pests and diseases, and product quality. The most numerous livestock are cattle, which yield a harvest, in terms of numbers, ranging from 10 per cent in the tropics to about 40 per cent in the United States. Yield in pounds varies comparably. Considering cattle as primary producers of animal food in the world, the problem of plane of nutrition arises. In many countries, the population is permitted to rise to whatever number can survive, and this in turn will bring the reproduction down to as little as 20 per cent of calf drop. The young do grow during the rainy season; in the dry season it is a question of sheer survival. It is possible, actually, to check reproduction entirely, but only under conditions of very low nutrition and, when checked, the effect persists for a long time. On the other hand, data in- dicate that something less than full nutrition is optimal for repro- duction. As for the availability of nutrient, the lignification of plant tissue as it matures renders the materials proportionately un- usable; only the bracket fungi seem to possess enzymes suitable for hydrolysis of this substance. This situation gives to study of the physiology of the ruminant animal a special significance. Heat increment seems to go up as digestible nutrient content goes down; it is perfectly possible for range cattle to keep warm on a diet of dry grass alone, but they will lose weight. -26-

Hence the billion acres of grazing land in the United States, pro- ducing a utilized feed equivalent of about four bushels of corn to the acre in digestible nutrient is a somewhat wasteful source. We do not know the limiting factor in determining appetite in cattle. It is not glucose, but may, rather, be the short- chain fatty acids — acetic, butyric, and propionic. Under or- dinary circumstances, a cow will eat up to 25 pounds of dry matter per day, if not too fibrous; after calving, the total will rise appreciably — perhaps 15 pounds or more. Intermediate metabolism is yet another important problem, for in ruminants it is possible under the impact of market con- ditions, for example, to change the amount of fat, but not the quality. In the case of monogastric animals, such as the chicken, the quality itself can be altered by feeding practices. The prob- lem of changing the dienoic fatty acid content of ruminant fats may be insoluble; we need to know. Human beings feel a need for fats if the level in the diet falls below about 15 per cent of ingested calories (40 per cent of the United States diet is in this category), and the kind of fats included is important. Unfortunately, milk high in butterfat is also high in the more desirable non-fat solids, and research aimed toward separating these two factors is needed. Fat is commonly associated with meat quality, as well. Fleshing and tenderness are certainly genetically controlled. Laboratory techniques that have as yet not been put into practice may determine tenderness from small biopsy samples. The eye can provide only a fair measure of fleshing, and we need more precise ways of determining this in live animals prior to slaughter and especially in animals to be used for breeding. As for the genetic capacity of animals, for systematic manipulation we need to have more physiological and chemical genetics to complement population genetics, which now dominates the scene. There is interest in heterosis, and increasing use thereof, especially as it pertains to fecundity. There seems to be a zero inheritance of fecundity within breed, whereas cross- breeding gives substantial improvement. In the matter of disease-resistance, animal husbandry is far behind its botanical counterpart; there is nothing in the record comparable to Flor's work on the mechanisms of rust-resistance in flax, where he has shown the presence of common chemical components in host and pathogen. -27-

Research in developmental biology — for example, in fer- tilization — has led to increased incidence of parthenogenesis in turkeys. Long known, this phenomenon is hypothesized now as a sort of antigenic phenomenon. Implantation in mammals must be better understood, for many embryos are lost at various stages of development. We need to know the nutritional needs of the embryo, especially in large livestock; Vitamin A may be limiting with these species, Vitamin B-12 with poultry. The toll exacted by parasites and disease reaches some two billion dollars or more annually; an adequate reporting system is needed if this figure is to be refined. Our knowledge of anti- biosis is pragmatic; we know the growth-promoting effects, but use of antibiotics may promote the emergence of antibiotic- resistant pathogens. Finally, of course, it may well be that a number of diseases will have to be got at genetically. Germ-plasm storage is still only partially successful. Cattle semen is stored in considerable quantity at the present time. There remains the question whether or not ova can like- wise be successfully preserved. Poultry semen has proven more difficult to handle, although it was the first tried. Because semen cannot legally be brought in, cattle, swine, and sheep from other countries have not been evaluated here in the United States. The only feasible program would be to make the experiments in the country of origin. Land use must be, in most instances, a compromise of competing demands. Much attention should be paid to minimizing the conflicts by developing programs of multiple use. At no point is it safe to ignore economic factors; growth in manpower output in agriculture runs at about six per cent per year, far above that of industry, a gain produced largely by increasing crop yields. Finally, social patterns determine biological events. There is a 'peck order' among all livestock, and females low in this peck order are more productive. The population-disease inter- relationship is an old problem, much in need of additional re- search; as animals accumulate in larger groups, we must know how much we have enhanced the disease hazard. Schools of veterinary medicine have not been primarily research-minded; most of the students have become practitioners. This situation is now changing somewhat. The situation is in part -28-

attributable to the problem of relative income from practice and research, but also to the fact that research support is less readily available and that facilities and space are often inadequate in institutions built primarily as teaching facilities. Some schools do participate in state experiment station funds, and grant funds from other sources are available. There are some 80 zoonoses (one of the recent viruses in cattle seems to be immunologically similar to that of certain respiratory diseases in humans, for example), such as en- cephalitis, tuberculosis, and brucellosis, to be taken into account. Public support is significant where human disease is a factor. A current question is whether or not Salmonella pullorum, a very widely dispersed species, can be successfully eradicated, in view of the fact that the incidence in chickens has been cut to less than one per cent. As for the international picture, in many instances disease problems involve other parts of the world. Food and Agriculture Organization has developed programs about such diseases as foot-and-mouth disease, rinderpest, and, somewhat less inten- sively, Newcastle's disease. Two U.S. Department of Agriculture research men are now in Kenya, assigned to the African swine fever problem; swine fever resembles hog cholera. Hopefully, Public Law 480, if liberally interpreted, will facilitate research in foreign areas. Movement of livestock is hampered by the disease threat and consequent quarantine restrictions. Not in- frequently, too, it is our show animals that are purchased by Latin American stockmen for prestige purposes when other breed- ing stock would be a better bargain. Returning to the matter of maintaining germ plasm, if an extensive 'world bank' were to be established, it would have to be a major international facility and should include materials from wild species — some in Africa — now in danger of extinction. It might be possible to pool genes within a species, even including animals in zoos, as is being attempted in a sheep-breeding project in Wisconsin. But it must be kept in mind that probable economic benefits from such an undertaking might be limited. For example, Brahman cattle are genetically heat-adapted but they don't grow very rapidly, don't produce until they are three years old, and don't produce much milk. Genetic penalites may be incurred along with the character emphasized. -29-

There are important possibilities of increasing the yield of meat from feed. Animal protein conversions above maintenance are about 60 per cent efficient. It has proven possible to reduce feed for broilers from four to two and a half pounds per pound of meat; turkeys are somewhat better. There is, in fact, little actual difference between species in this respect, except as re- flected in the rate of reproduction, which is appreciably slower in cattle and gives rise to an apparent lessened efficiency. It has been shown that about 80 per cent ad lib feeding is more efficient than entirely ad lib, but the gains to be had from restricted feed- ing are offset at least in part by the greater expense of hand feed- ing. Yields of feed crops in American agriculture on crop lands have been pushed to noteworthy levels; the record is not nearly so good for pasture and range lands. The potential yields of certain range lands in Oklahoma, for example, can be raised from 1,200 to 5,000 pounds dry weight of forage per acre, but the real question is what to do with the product which has a high seasonal variability in nutritive value. The large question of use for these feed items, and for vast quantities of materials such as cornstalks, is in reality a materials-handling research problem as acute as any other. Discussion of Byerly's Presentation Weiss: The question arises whether something might be done to improve the effectiveness of the intestinal bacteria. Byerly: There have been real advances, and we know a good bit of rumen bacteriology — at the very least the names of the organisms and their nutrient requirements — but rather less of the lower gut. Ideally, of course, one would de- velop an organism capable of hydrolyzing lignin, and colonize the animal intestinal tract with it. Even more speculative is the suggestion that the system be set up in a tank, by-passing the animal completely. Although we should not be misled into assuming, as is so commonly done, that yeast cultures and similar set-ups are neces- sarily highly efficient. Numerous enzyme systems react in tandem in most conversions, and these we haven't yet duplicated. Deevey: When, as in the case of the "honey-guides, " we know of especially interesting synergistic associations of micro- organisms and higher animals, they should not be permitted -30-

to remain a scientific curiosity but should be picked up and, if possible, exploited. Bryson: In this connection, some thought should be given to the possible advantages of what Luria has called "limited sloppiness, " and the possibility, if not likelihood, that the mixed cultures of the animal gut are not biologically equiv- alent, to any considerable degree, to the pure monoculture of the bacteriology laboratory. More is known of this in Iron Curtain countries simply because their techniques do not permit them the precision we have in the United States. Deevey: What, then, is the outlook for overall improvement? Byerly: The eventual limiting factor is water at the right place at the right time, but within that limitation output could perhaps be increased by a factor of 10. More critically important, by far, is the fact that not one-tenth of the measures, known for years, which would be necessary to attain this increase could be put into practice in a country such as India with its existing educational and economic systems. And we do not actually know what we can do with tropical soils. Allaway; So far as the food problem is a matter of energy, we can meet it; but it soon becomes a protein problem, and, whether it needs to be so or not, the tropics are tradi- tionally low in protein. Voris: If one expresses all consumers, human and animal, in terms of humans with average body weight of 150 Ibs. , the present earth's burden reaches 10 billion individuals, and certain shifts in the relative food-resource positions of the nations appear. Bronk; There is something to be said for the "advantages of disadvantages" in research; we must avoid its becoming sterilized by the push for high precision. In the "space race, " certain obvious advantages accrue to the Soviets who, because they could not build miniaturized components to reduce the load, were forced to produce large boosters to move it. Weiss: The problem is often that when you set out to analyze a complex system, you thereby lose the system; one must -31-

take constellations into account, rather than isolating the reactions. Recommendations: Increased research is needed as follows: 1. Basic research in the natural, physical, and engineering sciences underlying livestock production, in part through shifts of funds now used for applied research. 2. Genetic research, including cytogenetics, assembly, preservation, and evaluation of genetic stocks through- out the world and genetics of disease research. 3. Research on intermediate metabolism, especially the intermediate metabolism of fats. 4. Disease research on the physiological and genetic bases of host-parasite relationships and environ- mental-disease interactions. 5. Research on factors determining quantity of feed ingested and efficiency of feed utilization. 6. Materials-handling research to develop economical methods of utilizing roughages. Forest Research Prof. C. F. Korstian, Durham, North Carolina There has been a slow, but impressive, development of forestry as a science in the United States, and a concomitant recognition of the need for men especially trained in research and grounded in the liberal arts. Witness the cooperative pro- gram of education at Duke in conjunction with its College of Liberal Arts; half of the Master's candidates in forestry have come in through the "three-two" cooperative system. A 1958 study and review of the situation, published in a book entitled "Timber Resources for America's Future, " and available as Report No. 14 of the U.S. Department of Agri- culture, projects its estimates to the year 2000. It appears that we can supply projected requirements, but only with severe -32-

impact on resources and growth, especially in the years after 1975, and with some shortages of softwoods of preferred species and grades. No surplus is in sight and every available acre must be kept at maximum productivity; the 52 million acres in need of reforestation must be attended to. The conflict between alternative uses will, of course, continue. Soon there may be a resumption of the historic downward trend. More attention must be given to los s -prevention. A not inconsiderable problem is related to the fact that over half of the forested lands are held by small owners, and on these lands virtually no satisfactory forestry is currently practiced. This acreage may hold the key to the national supply of forest products, but the situation seems not to have changed substan- tially for 20 years. On industrial holdings and large private ownerships, the situation is very much better. Somehow, the problems of the small owners must be solved by measures short of compulsion and in spite of the fact that attendant tax increases sharply reduce the incentive for instituting improvement meas- ures. Still, changes within land use (improvement of existing forested lands) are more crucial than those between land use (addition of new forest lands), especially in view of the fact that intensity of agricultural use may be expected to increase. In the lake states, as agriculture retreats from marginal areas and becomes intensive in the better lands, the small owners simply are not interested in growing wood. All this raises the important question of multiple-use pro- grams, which gain the official and public approval of those con- cerned. There appears to be no reason, for example, why recreation and wildlife protection cannot be harmonized with acceptable forest practices in a single forest area. Multiple-use served as a theme for the Fifth International Forestry Congress in Seattle, where a number of principles were enunciated. Drastic changes in demand for forest resources are not in view except as the population increases, but there may be changes in what tree sizes are considered optimum, genetic programs aimed at satisfying special demands for growth rate, form, and specialty woods. -33-

Substitution Crops Dr. George W. Irving, Jr. , Agricultural Research Service, U. S. Department of Agriculture The focus for this discussion will be on the United States. Before the exploitation of coal and petroleum as raw materials for production of fuel, clothing, construction materials, furnish- ings, soap, paint, packaging, shoes, etc. , agriculture was the supplier for most of them. Industry's quest, spurred by World War I, for raw materials which are adapted to processing and stable as to quality, supply, and price has turned increasingly to petroleum, natural gas, and coal. Synthetic detergents now command over half of a soap market which once depended on in- edible fats; plastics have replaced leather in a major portion of the shoe market; and synthetic fibers are making great inroads in cotton and wool markets. Utilization research in recent years has demonstrated that farm products can be given properties that match those of any of the synthetics; that is, research which, initially at least, was undertaken for the benefit of the farmer. It has been shown that cotton and wool fabrics can be endowed with wash-wear qualities; cotton can be made to resist weather and rot; fat can be trans- formed into practical plasticizers, to give new and better surface coatings, and even to develop improved detergents; wool can be shrink-proofed; fermentation can convert grain to feed supple- ments, organic acids, and other raw materials for the chemical industry; improved starches can be used in paper and textile making. New and expanded industrial uses are attractive as a means for achieving a net increase in the use of agricultural com- modities, but agricultural raw materials will be used by in- dustry only when the properties desired cannot be achieved at less cost than other raw materials. In many cases this criterion of desirable materials at appropriate prices has been satisfied, and agricultural raw materials have held their own or entered new areas; in many others they have lost out. At the moment, nearly five billion pounds of agricultural commodities are used in the production of the 15 billion pounds of end-items produced by the synthetic organic chemicals industry (see Table 1). The major raw materials are some 40 billion pounds of coal, petro- leum, and natural gas. Production by 1980 is expected to triple, and, though some agricultural materials will hold, some -34-

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CHART I. Food Consumption—Daily Average Per Capita Levels by Regions 1962 Population (Millions) Per Capita Food Consumption (1958) Countries Number Calories Protein — Grams Fat Percent of calories Grams Standard Actual Animal Pulses Total Canada 1 18.5 2710 3080 62 2 94 138 40 Latin America 20 214.8 2500 2640 24 9 66 60 20 Mediterranean Europe 4) 2430 2660 25 6 75 74 25 Other Western ) 312.4 Europe 12) 2635 3040 48 1 81 120 35 USSR 1 222.6 2710 2985 26 3 92 70 20 Other Eastern Europe 7 118.0 2635 2925 28 3 78 83 25 Western Asia 7 82.6 2400 2365 13 5 73 39 15 Africa 21 258.5 2375 2455 11 10 64 44 16 Far East 11 926.7 2300 2100 8 12 56 32 14 Communist Asia 1 725.0 2300 2200 6 15 65 32 13 Australia and New Zealand 2 16.6 2655 3210 67 5 103 136 40 USA 1 186.4 2640 3220 66 5 97 149 40 Total 88 3082.1 Standards: 60 grams protein per capita per day, of which 7 grams animal protein, 10 from pulses, fat 15 percent of required calories. The deficits for 1962 appear to be: Animal protein in terms of 36% protein nonfat milk solids Fats Countries Metric tons Metric tons Latin America - 49,000 Western Asia — 48,000 Africa 89,000 20,000 Far East 714,000 1,568,000 Communist Asia 715,000 1,660,000 The World Food Budget, 1962 and 1966. Foreign Agr. Econ. Rpt. No. 4, Oct. 1961, USDA. -37-

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CHART III. 1958 Milk Produced (Million metric tons) Kilogram Area Cows Goats Sheep Buffalo Total per year per capita United States Canada 57 8 _ _ — 57 8 370 470 USSR 62 _ _ _ 62 300 Western Europe 85 1.2 0.7 .05 87 290 Eastern Europe 26 0.8 0.8 .15 28 290 Western Asia 4 1.2 1.5 .7 7 110 Far East 12 1.2 _ 12.5 26 33 Africa 7 0.9 0.5 0.7 9 42 Latin America 18 0.9 _ _ 19 100 Australia and New Zealand 11 — — — 11 650 290 6.2 3.5 14.1 314 Data computed from FAO Production Yearbook, vol. 14, 1960. -39-

CHART IV. 1961 Research on Livestock Area Species 1 USDA State Genetics and breeding Beef cattle 19 62 Dairy cattle 22 47 Poultry 12 43 Sheep and goats 6 18 Swine 10 24 Physiology 26 176 Nutrition Beef 11 107 Dairy 26 88 Poultry 8 65 Sheep and goats 4 23 Swine a 41 Fur animals All 5 4 Environmental biology 11 93 Livestock equipment 7 7 Infectious diseases Cattle 51 73 Poultry 31 46 Sheep and goats 7 11 Swine 22 18 Horses and mules _ 3 Parasites Cattle 15 22 Poultry 6 6 Sheep and goats 8 6 Swine 5 4 Insect Pests Beef cattle and swine 16 11 Dairy cattle 16 7 Poultry 2 3 Sheep and goats 5 1 Pasture and range 38 66 Milk technology Milk 82 68 Meat technology Meat 16 25 Wool and mohair Sheep and goats 41 1 Animal fat technology Beef and swine 60 2 Hides, skins and leather All 21 _ Poultry and egg technology Poultry 27 21 Feed and forage technology All 9 4 Market quality Meat, milk and eggs 11 18 Poultry products 7 6 -40-

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gain, and some lose, if we assume the same ratio of agricultural versus fossil raw materials, the demand for agricultural com- modities will rise to 15 billion pounds annually in 1980. Use of agricultural commodities at this rate is included in the production requirements projected for all uses by 1980 (see Table Z). Meet- ing these production goals will require additional crop land, up- grading pasture land, increased crop yields, and meeting water needs for increased irrigation. The values given take into account an export rate per capita equivalent to 1956, and projected to 1980, and assume no surplus. It should be remembered that about 15 per cent of our acreage now goes into export materials; it could be used domestically if need be. If, as now expected, we will still be producing surpluses by 1980, these would be available as raw materials for industrial use if technology in the meantime makes such use practicable. Finally, any shift from the current 80 per cent of acreage used for producing animal products toward a greater proportion of plant materials would permit either feeding a larger number of people on the same acres or supplying more agricultural commodities to industry. Two classes of commodities are used exclusively for in- dustrial purposes — cotton and wool for textiles, hides for leather. We anticipate no trouble in meeting our domestic cotton needs in 1980 and could supply in addition a considerable part of the market now supplied by synthetics and perhaps wool (see Table 3, below). A large exporting of cotton is projected for TABLE 3. Consumption for Textile Uses Million Pounds 1960 1980 Cotton 4,300 5,500 Wool (includes imported, largely for carpets) 450 500 Rayon and acetate 1,200 900 Other 790 2,600 Totals 6,740 9,500 -42-

1980, so it would be possible to satisfy all domestic fiber needs by cotton alone, both in terms of production and in providing techniques to develop desired properties. Domestic uses of animal hides is dwindling rapidly as synthetic plastics take over shoe, luggage, and related markets. Research on shortening and improving the processes now used for making leather products, endowing leather with "easy-care" properties for clothing uses, and search for new outlets for hides is important to recapture the five to six million (out of a total of 26 million) now exported, to obviate the need for using other re- sources to produce similar end-products, and to lessen the need to raise the price of meat products to absorb the cost of the hide. Practically all the research now being done by the Federal Government is that by the U.S. Department of Agriculture; there is some, of course, in industry, and a very small amount by the states. Federal effort is at the rate of 500 professional man- years per year, or $10 million at current costs. Estimates are that industry and other private research organizations conduct about 10-15 million dollars worth annually, and the state experi- ment stations perhaps less than a million. There is little reason to feel that research by either states or industry will increase appreciably; publicly supported research will continue to bear half or more than half the burden. The approach will continue to be a pro-agriculture one. Major problems are in basic research. What are the struc- tures and properties of the major constituents — the fats, carbo- hydrates, and proteins? What reactions will they undergo to produce what new chemicals with what different properties? Knowing this, and the property requirements of end-products, applied research and development work follow and informed de- cisions can be made when and if critical choices are necessary as between competing raw materials. A sensible level of re- search of at least 2, 500 professional man-years ($50 million at current costs) — approximately half in basic research — will be needed as the next two decades develop.* In times of surplus, alternate crops have appeal, since they can be substituted on acreage now used for production of surpluses. If the criteria are satisfied, the farmer has a 'This represents an increase of two to three times the present level. -43-

profitable crop, the processor has a domestic source of suitable raw materials, the consumer has products at reasonable prices, and the Government avoids payment of subsidies in purchasing surpluses. At times of non-surplus, alternate crops provide for healthy diversification and a wider variety of raw materials of unique properties; domestic production lessens our dependence on offshore supplies. The castor bean, for example, can be grown in many places now producing grains or cotton; continuing research will make it profitable to do so. We now produce only Z0 million of the 125 million pounds used annually, and research can develop additional uses for the oil. World surveys are conducted to discover plants having use- ful constituents that can be grown successfully, with economic potential, in the United States. Basic and applied research prob- lems must include: (1) search for new plants containing unique and potentially useful components; (2) studies necessary for adapting promising plants to United States conditions; and (3) development of processes for separating and modifying con- stituents to produce needed end-products. So long as agriculture is producing surpluses or substantial amounts for export, acreage for alternate crops is available; as we approach a period of no surpluses, successful alternate crops will compete with traditional crops. In this general area, current research in the U.S. Department of Agriculture is at about 50 professional man-years per year ($1 million). A more reason- able level — about 200 professional man-years — would educate us more adequately with respect to the potentialities of the world's plant species by 1980. In concluding: (1) Agriculture provides many good raw materials for industry; not all are being used because we don't know enough about how to use them or because costs are too high. (2) As we learn how to use them, the extent of use will depend on relative costs and availability after food and export needs are met. (3) Availability in excess of food and export will depend on eating habits, export policy and production capacity. (4) Cost and availability of alternative raw materials, chiefly petroleum, gas, and coal, will depend on what we use as major sources of energy in the future. -44-

Discussion of Irving's Presentation Irving: Considerable effort is going into improving the capacity of domestic agriculture to supply the natural drug needs of the United States, as for example the adaptation of Dioscorea as a cortisone source. Hubbert: In the vegetable oil companies, of course, there is very active interest in research with agricultural products. The larger oil companies, traditionally oriented toward petroleum, are to some extent now broadening out to include the vege- table oils, for they have no intention of being put out of business with the possible exhaustion of the petroleum supplies. Newton: To a considerable extent, industry initiates research in this general area when, as a result of some process, a by- product appears in considerable quantity and they feel pressed to find a use for it. The situation is influenced by the fact that the chemistry of natural products is usually complex, involving many unknowns from which the desired items must be removed by purification. Often, too, a natural product is utilized in industry because, for one reason or another, the price has dropped; but if a new process utilizes the material in substantial amounts, the price goes up again and it may not continue then to be competitive. Something of this kind has occurred in relation to hides for leather, though it may prove possible with new techniques, such as degradation and reconstitution of the material, or by more economical means of dehairing (utilizing keratinase from yeast), so to reduce the price as to make leather again competitive. Swans on: There seems to be a tremendous need here for com- parative genetics, in the development of competing crops as substitutes for those currently popular. Irving: There is now a high-amylose corn, particularly valuable in production of fibers and film, which has a 70 per cent content in contrast to the customary 25 per cent. It was achieved by simply bludgeoning through on a program of selection and analysis. A more systematic fund of data on genetic materials would have been a much more de- sirable way of going at it. -45-

Weiss: There is a question whether agricultural materials will be of significance in filling the vacuum caused by exhaus- tion of non-renewable resources, such as metals. Irving: This will depend in large measure on how vigorously the substitutes are sought. The record of the past is not always very encouraging. It rather seems as though the trend is away from analysis of crops, such as cover crops, for industrial purposes to the utilization of wastes from crops initially grown for some other purpo'se. Crop rotation is now aimed more at pest and disease control than as a means of improving the tilth of soils. Additional Remarks on Forest Resources Weiss: Wood, like other crops, has many uses and many by- products. It would be well to focus attention on forests as a possible source of organic resins, for example, to see what might be done genetically to improve the ratios of desired materials. Pike: Tropical forests, particularly, offer many problems. They are very diverse, scattered, and cannot be lumbered economically by traditional means. At the same time, they may well represent one of our truly great resources. Harper: There is some thought, based on research at the Puerto Rico station and elsewhere, that culture may have to be very different. Possibly it will be better to remove the whole cover and start a man-made forest, eliminating much of the transportation and related problems. Plantation rubber did, indeed, replace wild rubber in South America and elsewhere, and solution of a mycorrhiza problem in Puerto Rico has made pine plantations successful. Ecological Systems — Plants Dr. Frits W. Went, Missouri Botanical Garden, St. Louis, Mo. Because the energy arriving from the sun is so enormous, photosynthesis in the oceans seems an obvious source for the future, but, apparently because of the extreme lack of nutrients, -46-

especially of P and N, there is hardly any plankton except in local areas of up-welling, river discharge, or artesian supply - evolution having produced no really successful mid-ocean plants. The ocean is, effectively, a desert, and we must in the foresee- able future depend on land vegetation. At present, only about two per cent of the total energy fixed by plants is used by our society — one per cent as wood for fuel, one per cent as food, and perhaps 0. 1 per cent for fibers, rubber, and other industrial plant products. In actuality, the one per cent cited for food is much higher, in view of the 10 per cent efficiency of conversion .of plants into meat and less than one per cent efficiency for fish. The environment of the plant in all its aspects determines how well it reaches its genetic potential. There are two major problems: (1) how best to grow specific plants and make the best use of climate and sunlight; and (2) how best to make use of vegetation considered in the aggregate. The first is being attacked vigorously. The questions are botanical and economic. We have machinery to do the work, though it could be argued that agricultural climatology is the weakest link in the chain. In- creased support in this overall area will speed things up but will not change the general picture. It is new ideas, rather than money, that are in short supply, and already there is far too much duplication of work with, for example, agricultural chemi- cal dose rates in the agricultural experiment stations of the several states. The second question — vegetation use — is not sufficiently met because it is not clearly anyone's responsibility. Most of the energy captured by non-economic plants is now lost through dissimilation; only timber is harvested. The amount of solar energy which land plants fix in one year is 100x10^° calories, as compared with a total energy demand by man of 6x10^°, of which one-third is derived from plants, the rest from water, wind, and fossil fuels. Two principal lines suggest themselves: (1) better use of energy fixed by vegetation, and (2) improved energy con- version. As to the first point, it is curious that most cultivated plants were domesticated from climates very different from those in which we now grow them. Either evolution is shown to be very inefficient or we must be making a grave mistake in ignoring the gift of a completely adapted vegetation which, theoretically, should be capable of very high returns in terms of solar-energy conversion under the specific conditions of soil and climate pertaining. It is highly desirable that we investigate the possibility of harvesting wild vegetation, perhaps as methane, -47-

briquettes, alcohol, or other easily handled products (e. g. , CHO; protein and amino acids; lipids; [ R. L. Olson ] ). We are not even using agricultural wastes, which make up four to five per cent of all fixed energy. Or we might develop further a plant which is already pioducing a good fuel, such as terpenes collectable as resins or essential oils; or investigate the nature of the gaseous products visible as haze over vegetation. As to point two — improved energy conversion — under ideal conditions 10 per cent rather than the present 0. 2 per cent of the light energy can be transformed by plants into chemical energy, and five per cent should be a readily attainable value. Thus, 2, 500 x 101" calories would be available per year if land plants everywhere were grown optimally. Here ecology imposes severe limitations. Water is the most severely limiting. One-fourth of the earth's surface is desert, one-fourth semi-arid, one-fourth has occasional drought, and the remainder has really adequate supplies. Nutrient supply is next in order of importance; in a continent such as Australia, wherever there is adequate water, nutrients limit growth. Under natural conditions, elements such as nitrogen and phosphorus represent a sort of rotating capital; if materials are harvested, there is some net loss. Temperature, soil, and topography fall next in line as limiting factors. Pro- vided there is sufficient air movement, CO2 does not seem to limit plant growth, and light only under very special circumstances. Although we should not discount prematurely the possibility of altering the biochemistry of the plant, it is hard to see any likelihood of its proving a major success, and one is inclined to urge that those plants be selected for cultivation which are al- ready adapted to the environment in question. If it be agreed that only under optimal conditions can truly high plant yields be reached, what are these conditions? This cannot be deduced from field trials, as indicated by the following values for tomato yield: average field yield, 20 tons of fruit per acre, with a maxi- mum of 40 tons; greenhouse yield, 40 tons, with a maximum of 80; phytotron maximum yields, 160 tons. Thus potential yield is four times that in the best fields, which is understandable in- asmuch as the weather necessarily fluctuates about certain averages. These data are available for only a very few plants, and we should insist on similar information about all cultivated plants and all potentially usable as crop plants, which will re- quire very extensive testing in phytotrons. -48-

With the information at hand, these steps are possible: (1) Maximum yields tell how far removed we are from ideal pro- duction in a given area and the improvements that are possible. (2) Optimal localities for production of particular crops are or can be established, though in many cases transport problems will favor local production under sub-optimal conditions. (3) Plants can be adjusted to specific climates within certain limits by breeding. (4) Local climate control may be feasible, if a very small number of factors (e.g. , night temperature, tem- perature during the first two hours of daylight, or photoperiod) are involved. (5) Long-range weather forecasting, if established, might allow choice of best varieties in a particular year. From a general resources standpoint, several additional aspects of plant ecology are important: a. In nature, pure stands of a single plant are rare and then usually occur only as a result of toxic excretions. b. Plant communities are the rule, but we know almost nothing of the interrelationships therein. The basis for mutual stimulation — presumably chemical — should be investigated. Perhaps it would be possible to leave out certain members of the community and replace them with small amounts of specific chemicals. c. Primitive man usually grows mixed crops, sometimes with high yields; modern man does so only occasionally, because of marketing and related difficulties. d. Modern man rotates crops, i.e. , mixes crops in time only. The basis for this is only imperfectly understood, as are the generally unfavorable results of certain crop sequences. These basically ecological problems need solution before we can make the best use of land; crops which must be in some rotation are only partly renewable as resources. e. In nature, a closed vegetation discourages germination, but the nature of this control, perhaps through excretions, is unknown; though it must be in part responsible for the remarkable stability of vegetation and of plant communities and might form a useful background for effective weed control by natural means. f. Arid-zone ecology should be an important part of the development of plant resources. There is no apparent explanation -49-

for the sparse occurrence of even the most successful desert plants, and it might be possible to increase the stand density. g. Resources such as fog (e. g. , in supporting the growth of the coastal redwoods) and dew are very important for some plants. Further knowledge of the significance of small amounts of supplementary water might provide new suggestions concerning effective irrigation. h. Tropical-plant ecology is still most imperfectly known, yet much potential capture of energy lies in tropical latitudes. Much more emphasis should be laid on analysis of tropical vegetation, growth potential, and organic-matter production. i . Quality and taste research should relate chemical composition to climatic factors. In drug plants, for example, it has been shown that the alkaloid content is influenced at times by temperature. j . Interrelations between volatile plant emanations, hazes, condensation nuclei, atmospheric electricity and precipitation should be established, if indeed they exist. Possible conversion of these hazes into oil and petroleum should at least be investigated. Regional development of renewable resources is usually organized in colleges, experiment stations, and regional laboratories. We need more general centers, national and world- wide. Perhaps the best way of prosecuting this integrating and basic research is through the agency of an overall committee with authority and funds to initiate and support research in existing laboratories wherever in the world imaginative leaders are to be found. This should not be a super-government laboratory but an equivalent, perhaps, of the Rockefeller Institute. Discussion of Went's Presentation ss: To what extent do able people just not know the problems? There seems always the danger that research emphasis and personnel will tend to drift into those areas where money is readily available. This drift might be in some measure, offset by making available a listing of opportunities, prob- lems, and challenges. -50-

Bronk: Traditionally, men have gone into science as a calling in the old-fashioned sense, but this may be impracticable at the present time. Perhaps now it is more of a profession; perhaps there would be much to gain from an effort to direct the attention of research men, and potential research men, to recognized needs. It would have to be done with discretion, but at least it no longer seems a wholly un- supportable device, as it used to. Redfield: There is a gradual social evolution that takes care of some of this situation. Ecology, for example, was hardly known fifty years ago, yet today the word is a common- place one. There is considerable risk in organizing re- search, even in times of apparent stress. Allaway: One difficulty, surely, is that by the time an individual has the breadth to tackle problems of the kind we are dis- cussing here, he has lost the sharp tools of the trade. Ecological Systems — Animals Dr. Edward S. Deevey, Osborn Zoological Laboratory, Yale University The community can be taken apart, into plant and animal, for example, only in a conceptual sense. A reductionist view cannot be supported, except in a limited sense for purposes of examination. The concern of agriculture seems much of the time to be with annuals, despite the fact that the productivity of which Professor Went spoke is largely that of perennials. Why? Largely because we are all descended from a Neolithic wheat culture. We do not really raise fruit trees, but keep them, much as the Aztec Indians kept turkeys for their feathers. The values often cited for total productivity of land plants has come to us from work done about 1916, and, expressed in terms often adopted by ecologists, i.e. , 16 billion tons of carbon per year, seems on the basis of more recent, though admittedly highly tentative, calculations to be much too small. Of the 53 billion tons of carbon* fixed on land per year, 18. 6 are fixed by 'See in this connection: Deevey, E. S., The Human Population. Scientific American, Sept., 1960. p. 195. -51-

coniferous forests and 24.4 by tropical forests, which under- scores the tremendous productivity of perennial species. It seems, by the way, surprisingly difficult to find data on pro- ductivity, as such, of forested lands; all one can get are data on board feet of lumber, tonnages of copra, and so on, which is not nearly enough for this particular kind of analysis. Present utilization of much of our forested land in the tropics is by slash-and-burn husbandry, just as it was in Neolithic times. Overall productivity of the crops thus raised is far inferior to that of the native vegetation prior to its de- struction. And it must be recognized that in most tropical sites there is clear evidence of disturbance, such that the forests are actually not the age-old communities they are commonly thought to be; a few hundred years is entirely adequate to produce the giant trees characteristic of the area. Population dynamics is concerned, among other things, with self-limitation. Even when food is maximal, populations of animals do reach equilibrium. Particularly in vertebrates, with their highly developed nervous systems and the characteristically innate territorial nature of many of their activities, there is a psychological limitation of populations. Experiments with small caged rodents offer some explanation of this so-called "stress syndrome. " As numbers — of lemmings or snowshoe hares, for example — increase, this hypothesis holds that stress proportion- ately increases and reproduction rates suffer as a consequence of endocrine upsets. Male copulation rates may fall, or highly over- sexed individuals who, by their competitive activity, prevent others from copulating may themselves be sterile. Perhaps there is also foetal resorption as a direct result of crowding, as shown in the wood mouse and ordinary mouse thus far. Or maternal drive may be inhibited so that females fail to care properly for their young. While the field data on natural populations of lem- mings are scanty, they do at the moment, frankly, tend to contradict this view; but it should by no means yet be abandoned. There is even some experimental evidence of transmittal of stress factors across the placenta, as shown by the fact that, when young are raised by non-crowded mothers, the results are unchanged, thus ensuring that the factors are not transmitted through the milk. One approach to the metabolism of ecosystems is through the study of freshwater ponds, using labeled, especially naturally -52-

labeled, isotopes. Most of the work has been done with carbon. We are just now getting to similar studies of sulfur and will eventually examine the situation with respect to nitrogen. For methodological reasons the lake is more advantageous for this kind of study than are other possible research materials. It seems likely that errors in dating, based on C-14, may have been introduced by the fact that aquatic plants can utilize some ancient, non-radioactive, carbon from the carbonate rocks of hard-water lakes. Studies show that depletion up to 25 per cent may occur, giving rise to an age-dating error of 2, 000 years. C-13, which is easier to measure, provides a means of verifying this. On a scale of abundance based on the amount of C-13 per mil developed from limestone, surface waters show values of about -8; plankton of -30. The C-13 of the hypolimnion during stagnation consists of: (1) residual carbon from the spring cir- culation, (2) some oxidative CO2 from in situ oxidation of plank- ton, and (3) C- 13-enriched CO2 coming out of the muds. Com- putations show that the metabolism of CC>2 in the mud in deep water, as compared to open water at the bottom of the lake, is about 40 per cent. Fermentation CO2 cannot be distinguished from limestone CC*2 by C-13, but can be completely identified by the C-14 con- tent. We can say that about 10 per cent of the carbon is old. Carbon 14 is now increasing faster than the method of analysis can keep up with it. Correlations of data on the C-14 of lakes with those of tree-ring data are significant. In connection with the latter, variations of up to three per cent in the carbon of the wood is related to sunspot cycles, leading to errors in dating of as much as 240 years. The peat deposits of northwest Europe, .Alaska, and northern Canada show "recurrence-horizon" phenomena occurring simultaneously over very large areas of 1400 and 400 A. D. and 600, 1200, and 2300 B.C. At these times the upward growth of the peat became stable, it dried out, and forests developed on the dry soil; then the conditions re- turned to the moister environment. These same dates appear in hundreds of bogs, although not all five in any one bog; many of them are simply not that old. The total carbon in these peats is 16 per cent of the total in the atmosphere. The presently noted increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (some 10 per cent since the mid-1800's) may be -53-

due to the oxidation of this peat; it may be a cause (or result) of climatic change. An increase in CO2i by trapping more long rays, would produce a greenhouse effect, and thus raise the tempera- ture; or an increase in temperature from any cause would result in a boiling off of CO2 from the oceans. Either explains the phenomena observed. The lacustrine system can serve as a use- ful model for examining questions of this kind. Similar studies are under way on the sulfur metabolism of lakes. The abundance scale for S-34, the commonest form other than S-32, (and considering that of a meteorite as zero) ranges to -20 per mil for reduced sulfur and to +25 for sea water or sedimentary sulfates. Rain water is close to zero, although it is a sulfate. The sulfur of lakes is from air. H;>S is produced in the mud of the continental shelves, escapes to the air, where it is oxidized to SC^, falls as the sulfate; apparently it does not come directly as the sulfide. The pond stands at about +8 per mil, rising during the winter stagnation to +11 and during summer stagnation to +15. H^S is being made from sulphates by bacterial reduction. In the metab- olism of sulfur, the situation approaches that of sea water peri- odically; one can eventaully calculate the sulfur metabolism. In a sense, the pond behaves in this respect more like an organ- ism than like an inorganic system. The crux of the problem is to recognize that the lacustrine system is crucial, and to main- tain enough archival areas for research. Otherwise we cannot get at answers of this kind. Commentary Dr. C. Warren Thornthwaite, Laboratory of Climatology, Elmer, New Jersey The important point in considering solar energy is that only a trivial fraction of energy is used, which makes it seem that there are all kinds of possibilities for increased utilization. Only half of the total incident radiation is available; some, of course, is reflected. That which is absorbed goes mostly to evapotrans- piration (85 per cent in moist soil), into raising the air tempera- ture, i.e. , sensible heat, and into raising the temperature of the soil. Photosynthesis uses negligible amounts. -54-

On the question whether water or CO2 is limiting in plant growth, the issue is unsettled and should be looked into. We have abundant evidence under outdoor conditions for the former — little if any on the latter. Though plants are good radiators, there is still some question of the role of transpiration as a heat regulator. Generally, we are less optimistic now than we used to be about rain-making; in fact, we are by no means certain, in a given instance, whether it has been made at all. Attention is turning to water conservation through films of hexa- or octa- decanol laid down over bodies of irrigation storage water. Experiments were carried out at Seabrook Farms some years back on irrigation in relation to seeding of spinach on dry soils in August. Seed of this species must be about 40 per cent moist, by weight, in order to germinate. At the rate of 15 Ibs. of seed per acre, this is a total of eight Ibs. of water, or about one gallon. Applied as irrigation water, some 50,000 gallons per acre (two acre inches) are needed. Comparable results can be had by wetting the seed prior to planting, which suggests the obvious possibility of vast savings in irrigation, provided only that methods can be perfected. Another problem is water balance. Annual precipitation at Seabrook Farms is about 42 inches, evapotranspiration some 27 inches. Although rainfall is distributed about equally through- out the year, there is an annual summer drought at midsummer and a surplus in fall and winter. One wonders if it might be possible to put something into the soil comparable to what is used in reservoirs, and thus reduce the transpiration of the plants grown thereon. Is this imaginative thinking, or nonsense? We are told that sprays on leaves will slightly modify transpiration, that corn in Illinois can be raised on two inches of water, whereas the usual demand is for 16-18 inches. If we could cut the demand in half, it would change the hydrology of the whole world; areas like Iraq would become fertile and we would need to worry only about floods. Very likely, changing the need for water will prove more effective than trying to change the precipitation patterns. -55-

Discussion of Thornthwaite 's Commentary Russell: Experiments at Illinois have shown that it is possible to grow corn to maturity (80-90 days) with less than seven inches of water; as little as two inches would be exceptional. The problem in extrapolating to large areas is due, of course, to the dissipation of energy. On small plots it makes little difference, but to cover the northern half of Illinois with plastic raises the critical issue of what would happen to the incoming radiation after its conversion into heat. In any event, about half the water loss in cultivated areas is directly from the soil. It is problematical whether the suggestion to establish a monomolecular film would prove effective. Present data are from greenhouse experi- ments; now well-designed field tests are needed. Bronk: To regulate transpiration might change metabolism and climate! Thornthwaite: Alfalfa has been shown to transpire 900 g./g. of dry matter produced in summer, only 400 g./g. in spring; as the energy is less, the transpiration is less. The plant can get along on the reduced amount. Irrigation is vastly increasing with the use of better and cheaper equipment and the use of film. Why, indeed, not cover an entire county with polystyrene, somewhat as cloth is used in tobacco culture? Byerly: There is the further question whether zerophytic plants are basically poor converters of energy, genetically. Why do they not grow in humid environments? Weiss: In going from experiments to larger application, more research should precede any tampering with the climate outside the laboratory, for we upset the ecosystem when we deal with but one item in it. Russell: The aim must be to reflect the radiation while it is still short, not permitting it to become long-wave radia- tion, because more of the latter is trapped by the atmos- phere. This might possibly be accomplished by: (1) changing the optical properties of the vegetative surfaces especially to enhance reflection of short waves; or (Z) changing the properties of the atmosphere so as to change the intensity. -56-

Deevey: Condensation nuclei are released from plants and this process might be affected by any change in the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere, as by changing the evapo- transpiration. Commentary Dr. Alfred Redfield, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole There is conflict between the laws of ecology and a great deal of public thinking. The essence of a renewable resource lies in its cyclic nature, cycles which run smoothly or develop bottlenecks, e.g. , the central oceans, great deserts where the return of nutrients to the surface levels is minimal. The "carrying power" of the land must be assessed on the basis of modern ecology, but recognizing at the same time that modern concepts were developed in a period of extremely ab- normal conditions, with man as a central species which has be- come a most efficient predator. It will be necessary to adjust popular thinking to the idea that there are limits to populations, and to get away from the notion of expansion, even though it may not be possible to set precise limits. It is easy to be very pessimistic about popular concepts of the unlimited productivity of the oceans. Even if fisheries were increased ten-fold, it will be only a matter of time (10 years perhaps) until populations catch up again. For example, the much heralded draining of the Zyder Zee, yielding a 10 per cent increase in arable lands of Holland, was accomplished during an interval that saw a Z0 per cent rise in the population. In the open ocean productivity is determined basically by the nutrient cycle, locally by light. There is little we can do substantially to modify this situation, and we shall have to re- main predators. Matters are very different along the coast proper, where there is some opportunity to make effective changes, but this cannot importantly affect the great world food situation. There are a number of instances which point out the com- plexity of efforts to increase the yield of marine organisms. One of the Japanese oysters, brought to the West Coast as seed -57-

oysters, grows very well but will not breed successfully there. The cultivation of clams on Cape Cod, established initially by using Spartina to catch the small clams, was soon rendered un- profitable by the inroads of predators such as the horseshoe crabs and snails. At the time, the social climate was not such as to support the research necessary to prevent this collapse. Again, on Long Island, the once highly prized bluepoint oyster was eliminated when the increasing domestic duck population so raised the nutrient level of the bays as to produce an over- growth of algae, despite efforts by sanitary engineers to build artificial ponds. Fish and wildlife directives derive, all too frequently, from industrial pressures. Political support from the fishing industry, for example, leads to programs that start with the species they particularly want to produce, when more time should be allotted to general studies. On the other side of the coin, it would be helpful if the simon-pure research men and laboratories would be willing to tackle some of the more practical problems. These can, incidentally, be very stimulating. From an economic standpoint, it might be highly practical to put together in tandem several otherwise marginal activities such as tidal power, desalination, algal culture, and the re- covery of minerals from marine waters. Those areas of high tides which are also characteristically arid, e. g. , the Gulf of California and the Red Sea, might be susceptible to this kind of approach. There is now a growing interest in marine ecology. All but a very few states have marine laboratories and granting agencies are now beginning to appreciate the importance of the work done there. There is great opportunity in marine biology for exploration and discovery of natural products; there are more phyla of animals in the sea than on dry land, and a diver- sity of materials that are of special value in investigations of evolution of metabolic systems. -58-

SECOND SESSION Opening Remarks Programs to meet the need for food are progressing about as well as can be expected on the basis of existing knowledge, although there is always the possibility of breakthroughs. The question is not so much whether there will be enough food, but of providing the right kind, in the right place, at the right time. The same might be said for soil and water — it is not the average situation that is meaningful. The conference needs on the one hand to consider the specifics of the situation and on the other to recognize that the complexities demand a "systems" approach. There is the question how far one can go in separating items out from the system in analytical procedures; research patterns may move back to a consideration of ecosystems. There are promis- ing research areas in such problems as use of substitute crops, mixed cropping, development of multi-use patterns, search for new sources of genetic materials and preservation of genetic extremes for future use. Genetics Dr. Carl P. Swanson, Johns Hopkins University Genetics is concerned with the manipulation and manage- ment of gene pools in relation to the environment, a sort of "genetic ecology. " It has provided a climate of opinion and a sound theoretical basis, with special emphasis now on molecu- lar biology. Several points deserve emphasis: a. Preservation of germ-plasm resources: We now have much foreign germ plasm, but the areas of diversity identified by Vavilov are mostly no longer available to us. We cannot know just what will be needed, and must therefore have a diverse resource; we cannot afford not to expand the genetic base of our breeding programs by whatever means we can devise. The -59-

underdeveloped countries cannot meet the costs, for example, of programs such as the maize and sorghum efforts of the National Research Council or the work of the Rockefeller Foundation in Mexico and other Latin American countries. b. Comparative genetics: We must greatly broaden the base of comparative genetics. Only a very few species have been fully investigated, yet each extension into a new group has added appreciably to our basic store — witness the contributions of bacterial genetics to our understanding of sex, of transduction and transformation, infective RNA, and so on. Forest genetics lags badly, partly because of the inconveniently long life-spans and generation-times of tree species, but active programs can and do yield results, e. g. , poplar selection for more rapid growth rates. There is almost nothing known of the genetics of the algae except for some of the unicellular forms. c. We need to pay further attention to host-parasite re- lations, recognizing that here we have two mutable systems, each subject to the influence of chemical and biological control devices. d. We know little of the relation of the gene to the given expressed character, however much we may know of the gene itself, and of the transfer of information by RNA to the ri- bosomes of the cytoplasm. There is a big gap in our knowledge of the relation of form and function. e. The genetics of aging needs further study. f . Many areas - for example, developmental genetics - which are well started must be pushed vigorously. g. We have just the beginnings of a genetics of behavior, but it is imperative that we expand this area with its important economic implications. h. Despite all we know, we must add to our information on the long-term effects of radiation. i . Interest in what are called infectious nucleic acids, from the work of Roger Herriot, illustrates the increasing tempo of the research-to-application process. While very newly pointed out, this information has quickly reached the "body biologic, " in contrast to the slow development of hybrid corn. -60-

Somewhere between the two lies the translation of genetics into practical use in the antibiotics industry. There is now almost no gap at all between research and application, and advances quickly modify the applied aspects of a given problem. Genetics, as currently practiced, is analytical. This has certain disadvantages in that it emphasizes experimentation with pure lines; there is none of what has been called "limited slop- piness. " Thus many genes are lost and the gene pool is narrowed as it feeds toward inbred lines. Genetics, and the use of isotopes, has given biochemistry breadth and depth and got it out of its taxonomic phase. It has transformed taxonomy from a static to a dynamic field. It has had equal impact — providing new insights and new parameters — on human medicine (tissue transplants, resistance to antibiotics, congenital diseases such as Mongolism, blood antigens, and so on). Rightly used, it is a science that can be molded to our needs and purposes. Microbiology Dr. Vernon Bryson, Institute of Microbiology, Rutgers University First, we need an inventory of resources, for we have now only a sample and a biased one at that. We are prisoners of our interests, a situation we should break out of, e.g. , the concept of episomes and the relation of nucleus and cytoplasm. Some steps have been taken, of course. The Swiss produce a list of stock materials, including some 200 species of Sal- monella. There is a committee of the Genetics Society coopera- ting with the National Science Foundation on preservation of genetic stocks. A drosophila center has been set up in Phila- delphia, a fungus collection at Dartmouth, and so on. The chief repository of bacterial, virus, and fungal stocks in this country is the American Type Culture Collection which is now negotiating for funds (since granted) from the National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health, and other sources to permit con- struction of a new building and for greatly improved facilities. This installation has been expanded to include tissue cultures of particular lines of normal and pathologic cells, although the utility of this venture will depend considerably upon whether it -61-

it proves possible to maintain the original differentiation of the cell aggregates. It might, for example, be possible to use these genetically valuable tissues just as microbial lines are now used, as, for example, in the production of steroids. Microorganisms carry out very complicated transformations. Perhaps it would be possible to take cells of the pituitary, dis- perse them with trypsin, grow the populations in suspension, supply them with a substrate, harvest the cells, and extract the desired hormones; but in some cases, at least, it might well develop that the product is not elaborated under these conditions. Or, possibly, the cells of higher organisms could be haploidized, then rendered homozygous by restitution in culture, avoiding the long periods of inbreeding now required. Or one could perhaps induce transformation in human cell lines. Either technique would increase the availability of specifically characterized and genetically marked lines of vertebrate cells. Harrison Brown suggests that resources could be in- creased fifty-fold with known techniques. It is essential to achieve greater utilization of ideas already at hand, as, for example, conversion of sugar cane to protein through the agency of yeast; indeed, a symposium on this topic would seem highly advisable. Such microorganisms grow very rapidly, producing up to 75 per cent fat, or 50 per cent protein, and can be directed to some extent by manipulating the substrate. Algal or yeast farms can be established in areas unsuitable for culture of orthodox crops or livestock, and will convert at a high level of efficiency. Five tons of sugar yields about two and a half tons of yeast, of which one ton or more is protein — as against perhaps 50 Ibs. for beef cattle. Capital outlay is high, about $10 per ton over a ten-year period. Of special appeal is the combination of algal culture with waste utilization, such as sewage, thus avoiding consumption of strategic materials. Matters are complicated by established eating habits and the difficulty of getting yeasts and Chlorella accepted in the diet. In the production of penicillin some savings have been achieved simply by recycling portions of the materials; the fungal mat, in this case, is fed to the next subsequent culture. There seems to be no clear reason why the water in a com- mercial algal culture could not be similarly recycled, as has been done on an experimental basis. It is, incidentally, possible -62-

to make antibiotics in less than ideal, really quite primitive, situations. This would apply to some other fermentations, and we should examine how other countries can be helped to make pharmaceutical products under conditions in which elaborate facilities and high technical skill are not available. 2,3 butylene glycol can be produced from citrus wastes and used as a basis for rubber and plastics. We need to maintain a greater interest in utilization and conversion of agricultural and industrial wastes during peacetime, rather than relying on the pressures of national emergencies. If wastes are to be used as food they should be put into the food chain at the most efficient place, for, the longer the chain, the greater the loss. Yeasts as food have been receiving much attention. In Taiwan, where in 1948 production reached 40 tons per day, the substrate is cane molasses. Manipulation of the substrate offers great possibilities for controlling the relative proportions of fats, proteins, and carbohydrates in the end-product. If S. cerevisiae, for example, is grown on an innosital-deficient medium, the yield of fat is increased 10 times or more, i. e. , from 1. 6 per cent to nearly 24 per cent. As for filamentous fungi as food, only about 25 species are now accepted, although perhaps as many as 2,000 are edible. It seems obvious that this field stands in need of exploration, since cheap sources of carbo- hydrate can provide for the efficient manufacture of fat and protein by means of fungi of many species and varieties. Closed systems, obviously, are essential in space travel. Research here has gone well, for one reason because the organisms have been carefully selected and the technical prob- lems are not especially difficult. Present estimates suggest that eight cubic feet of algal culture will supply oxygen for one astronaut, a drop from 350-800 cubic feet considered necessary in 1956 — an advance based entirely on the selection of geneti- cally more desirable strains. (See Supplement E. [J. C. Lewis] ) Discussion The opportunities for utilization of sewage are provoca- tive, for not only nutrients, but also water in large quantities, are lost with current practices. Hopefully, microorganisms might be employed to prevent the degradation of the downstream -63-

ecology. And there is always a chance that micro-organisms can be found to take care of the lignin. Bryson; At present they do so only slowly, removing about half in a six-months period. There is a field, now only partly exploited, for tailoring microorganisms, including viruses, to the control of pests. This might take the form of anti- biotics developed as systemic pesticides or, as in the case of the milky disease of the Japanese beetle grub, direct parasitism. Weiss: Ideally, one would leave man out of the interaction en- tirely, after the initial development of the pathogen, and let the one eliminate the other. Sebrell: On the matter of yeasts for food, considerable difference of opinion exists. Yeast has been used as a food at a pilot- plant level in Puerto Rico, based on utilization of the waste molasses. Likewise, Torula yeast can be produced on the waste of the sulphite paper process. The chief difficulty lies in persuading humans to accept it in the diet, even under adverse circumstances. It is not a completely adequate protein of itself and, except for special circum- stances (inmates of institutions or as a cattle feed), can- not be added to the diet much beyond about an ounce per person per day. Chlorella, for that matter, is not a complete food, and there is little likelihood that genetics could push it all the way to becoming one. We are not mainly concerned here with acute starvation, but with the quality of the diet for many millions who are dying of a kind of starvation that doesn't in fact produce hunger. Bronk: The experiences of World War II clearly indicate the difficulty of changing food habits, for large amounts of food not familiar to the men to whom it was served found its way to the garbage cans. Schaefer: It is hard to introduce new diets in the campaign against kwashiorkor, although there is some hope that fish meal and fish flour can be made acceptable; in this country it is already widely used as a poultry feed additive. Sebrell; Other items have been suggested and tried from time to time, e.g. , "chenoa" plus cottonseed flour as an additive to Guatemalan and Nicaraguan staples. Arguments -64-

continue as to the relative efficiencies of livestock and microorganisms. While there seems no question that the latter are more productive, estimates of the degree of difference are frequently overstated. One must recognize, also, that the livestock usually do their own harvesting and utilize substances not suitable for direct human consumption. Byerly: Even here, the situation is not simple, because the materials-handling aspects of forage utilization by live- stock far outweigh the questions of forage production, per se. It would be essential here to distinguish between what is biologically feasible and what is economically feasible. Allaway: A closed-system algal culture, while it would conserve water, might lead to difficulties in the matter of heat dis- sipation. Hubbert: Possibly the energy of excess sunlight might be con- verted into an absorption refrigeration system for main- taining the culture at bearable levels. Bryson: Heat-resistant mutants, growing at temperatures of 39°C, at three times the normal rate, are now available and could be employed. Russell: An acre of corn has its own built-in cooling system; a culture of microorganisms may be more difficult in this regard. All investigations into problems of this nature must emphasize the systems concept. Bryson: In any event, we should explore ways of making up the supplies of amino acids which are deficient in micro- organisms; of enzyme repression; of stimulating the pro- duction of large amounts of extra-cellular amino acids. One might, for example, add other microorganisms to yeast cultures to make up the existing deficiencies - which brings us back to the question of mixed cultures. Harper: There is tremendous opportunity for advances in forest genetics. The resin yield of southern pine can be increased two to three times by strain selection; disease resistant trees can be developed; cutting practices can be tailored to genetic characteristics of growth; and, hopefully, some- thing can be done to reduce the generation-time in breeding programs, as by changing photoperiod. It might even be -65-

possible to take the individual fascicles of an especially desirable conifer and, by vegetative propagation, rapidly increase a selected line. Swanson: For this kind of work there must be a broader base of comparative genetics. Bronk: Would it be desirable to bring more people into this area? Swanson: Yes, but agencies such as the National Science Founda- tion generally turn down requests which ask essentially to investigate the parameters of just another species; we are face to face with the question of scientific prestige. Money seems to go into the popular fields, presently into mole- cular biology. Bronk: There is a tendency to shun certain areas and overstress others; this group can at least point to the things that need doing — those that are being starved. Byerly: Once you support a project, you have built one more link into the system. Weiss: The growing intellectual smugness of orthodoxy tends to distort the balance between fields. Swanson: Perhaps we need to intermix the applied and basic more than is now customary. Soils Dr. M. B. Russell Department of Agronomy, University of Illinois We need to recognize that soil is a vital part of several natural cycles. It is a living, dynamic, biological entity, re- sponsive to management and, properly handled, is superior to its virgin condition; it is immaterial to talk of returning to the "good old days. " The role of the soil in the carbon, nitrogen, water, and geochemical cycles must be taken into account. It plays an important role as a sort of balance wheel in the short- term storage of matter and energy. -66-

In most areas we are still exploiting our soils. The virgin nitrogen of many midwestern soils has been depleted by half in the last century. We need to evaluate the rates at which this kind of attrition takes place and determine how these rates can be modified. Various reversible and irreversible changes are taking place, about which we know too little, and even less take into ac- count in practice. We must distinguish between the possible and the feasible; technology already exceeds acceptability in many instances. Soils are highly variable in inherent productivity and re- sponsiveness to management. The U.S. is blessed with vast soil resources — three acres per person as against 0.2 in Japan. About 25 per cent is in crops, about one-third in range, one- third in forest, and perhaps 10 per cent non-agricultural. Changes in patterns of use take place largely within, rather than between, soil classes. The patterns of land use reflect competition be- tween opposing wants; e.g. , roads are built where it is easiest to do so but, as a result, agriculture is shifted to costlier sites and the shift is reflected in higher food prices. The short-term interest of the individual is pitted against the long-range benefit to society, and vice versa. Some of the compelling problems in soils management and soils science are as follows: (1) low recovery or turnover rates of materials added as fertilizer, such as phosphorus and nitro- gen; (2) the eventual fate of agricultural chemicals, the metab- olism of soils as conditioned by herbicides and pesticides, materials being degraded as the soils become "Nature's garbage can"; (3) physical deterioration, such as salinity, compaction, etc. , brought on by faulty drainage and control of water, etc. ; (4) soil microbiology, where pure culture studies have proven unfruitful, and which needs to consider particularly the inter- actions of organisms, the ecology of the system; (5) profile modification as related to rooting volume and plant nutrition, the plow layer, etc. ; (6) soil mineralogy — how materials are released from the reservoir; (7) land reclamation and saline soils; (8) mechanisms of erosion; (9) organic constituents, chelation; (10) problems of arid and tropical soils, which vary greatly from those of temperate zones, of cold soils, etc. — especially the shifts that must be made to adapt traditional con- cepts to these extreme situations. There is an immediate need for more information if we are to understand these situations and deal with them. Soil science -67-

is young. We must beware that it is not a casualty of the current space splurge. At the same time it is a mistake to think of agri- cultural sciences as distinct from others; there is much biologi- cal and physical science involved in the study of soil, crops, and livestock. One might suggest the following immediate needs: a. Basic soil surveys are accumulating all too slowly. There must be an inventory to serve as a taxonomic framework, on a global scale. b. Recognition of the soil-plant-atmosphere interrelation- ship. c. Recognition of the dynamic, continuously variable nature of soils; developing concepts of intensity, capacity, rate. d. Collation of the bits of information now available to us but at the moment of no immediate value in discrete form; sum- marize and put into usable form. e. A study in depth of typical soil types, benchmark studies. f . An analytical study of the smaller pieces of the picture, provided it is followed up by a re-assembly of the fragments, which become meaningful at the molecular level only if put back into framework. g. Clothe the basic conceptual framework of understand- ing with factual relationships; this requires improved methods of measurement and evaluation and the development of mathematical and philosophical approaches to cope with exceedingly complex dynamic processes. Discussion of Russell's Paper Russell: The schools of agriculture should not be considered apart from other aspects of the educational system. Pike: It seems that schools of agriculture are losing students and popularity; it might be possible through this committee to point up some of the stirring problems and put some of the more attractive elements back into the agricultural education picture — to rehabilitate them. -68-

Swanson: Agriculture has been closely associated with farming in the popular mind, and we are a long way from changing this situation. Hubbert; A social problem arises from the tendency of many people to associate research with current overproduction. Swanson; Most people, at least here in the United States, do not consider that we are dealing with an emergency; survival is not yet a problem. Russell: We take food for granted, not realizing that the pipeline as it now operates will suffice for only about ten days and that the food is produced by not over ten per cent of the society. All of this makes the United States extraordinarily vulnerable to catastrophe, natural or man-induced. Allaway; We are perhaps unduly concerned over burdensome surpluses; it might seem much less impressive if we considered setting aside a year's supply, and we might better consider it a margin of safety. Byerly: The Soviet Union, at least, adopts a very different view, and recognizes farming as a basic entity in the economic and social system. Productivity in this country has been the result of chemical and physical research. Before World War II 60 per cent of the Federal dollar went into agricultural research; at present it is less than three per cent, and perhaps it should be this way; but those re- sponsible for the agricultural research programs don't think so. We are in a period of five to eight per cent continuous surplus and might live with no further production for a full year. Revelle: For many countries, e. g. Pakistan, matters are critical. Here 41 million persons subsist on 25 million irrigated acres — 12 per cent of all the irrigated land on earth. At present, land is going out of production through misadventures with the irrigation system, at the very time when populations are on the increase. As the water table rises, soils become saline and non-productive at a dis- astrous rate, while productivity is already far below attain- able levels; some 100,000 acres per year are being los_t — a new deficit of one million persons per year, translated in terms of food supply. -69-

Russell; It might be argued that this could largely have been avoided by application of techniques of drainage that have been known for some time; that it should have taken place is astounding. All that is needed is a net downward flux through the profile of perhaps Z0 per cent. If soils are irrigated they must often also be drained, whereas appar- ently in Pakistan the table has risen. The question now is how to rectify the situation — by use of adapted crops, chemical treatment, electrical treatment, deep plowing, or other measures. Our experimental laboratories in the United States have been visited by men from foreign countries, but problems of communication are enormous and implementation of needed techniques even greater. The International Cooperation Administration has brought people over to this country for this very purpose. Bronk: What sort of persons have come? Have they been the right ones and in sufficient numbers? Russell: It is very difficult to find persons with the proper back- ground. The solution is probably to present the younger people with the challenges and then train them to operate effectively. The most competent minds are needed. Land use and national policy strongly affect the outcome of any research program. Spilhaus: Fundamentally, the landbank notion makes sense, but it is embroiled in political controversy. Bronk: Highways, for example, often go through the very best agricultural lands. Russell: There is a growing recognition of the need to preserve productive farmlands, but this has not prevented the Bureau of Public Roads and comparable agencies from looking to short-term gains in costs of road construction. Byerly: In some categories of our five million acres of "specialty" lands there simply is no replacement pos- sibility, cost or no cost, once they are lost — a fact which the Dutch have at last openly faced in a policy based on suitability of land rather than sheer cost of operation or utilization. -70-

Harper: There is some control, in Federal forested lands, over what shall be devoted to highways, but little can be done on private holdings. There is not yet sufficient public accept- ance to get the requisite regulations. Notestein: One might do as the Swiss do, and use bicycles rather than motor cars, which would eliminate the urban-sprawl threat. In the last analysis we must recognize that ours is an economy of waste, that private enterprise cannot of its very nature take the long view. Whole sectors must be managed by governments. Went: Only in those instances where research, as in Dutch floriculture, leads to much higher yields and to income competitive with other possible uses can private individ- uals be expected, in significant numbers, to retain lands in agricultural production against the claims of competing uses. Korstian: We cannot, without caution, follow the European ex- ample in land use. Attempts in England, after World War II, to increase domestic timber supplies have run into serious difficulties and are in conflict with the mainten- ance of water resources. (See Supplement F. [ R. L. Olson] ). Pests: Botanical and Microbial Agents and Vectors Dr. Russell Stevens, Department of Botany, George Washington University Plant pathology is both a science and an art; it has been seriously suggested that we grant distinct degrees in these two aspects. Of the art of plant disease control we know much; it is to a considerable degree a matter of applying what we know and of pushing steadily for improvement. Along the way we should main- tain a continuing concern for: (1) communication between the re- search man and the practitioner or extension worker, especially in foreign countries where the problem is more critical; (2) receptivity to new techniques; (3) the impact of economics and a reluctance to recommend measures which are infeasible even though effective; (4) vigilance lest we educate the consumer to expect a degree of disease control, or an eventual consumer item, which is needlessly expensive or difficult of attainment; -71-

(5) caution in the matter of toxic residues and other undesirable side effects; (6) pilot trials of old remedies in areas prior to their general adoption; (7) resistance to pressures from the growers to "do something" when we have little or no basis for recommendations; and (8) vigilance in the search for and accept- ance of simple inexpensive remedies provided only that they are effective. As for the science of plant pathology, the crux of the matter lies in the fact that pathology is by its very nature largely a synthetic discipline. As a consequence it faces in exaggerated form the dilemma of biology vis-a-vis mathematics, physics, and chemistry. It is simply not possible for the plant pathologist to be a superior geneticist, physiologist, microbiologist, ecologist, agronomist, biochemist, etc. , which, ideally, he needs to be. As a science compounded of others, its unique problems and points of view come only belatedly by the developing scientist, with the result that many are lost to pathology along the way, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Finally, those problems that are most crucial to the science do not have the elegance, precision, and simplicity so appealing and fashionable to most research men. Research in plant pathology at present might be summarized as follows: (1) Morphological and descriptive work still goes on but is losing popularity rapidly. (2) Research on chemical control is trying now to break out of its strictly empirical approach and to associate chemical structure with biological activity. (3) Plant breeding is much emphasized and has become largely a race with the natural evolution of the pathogen, highlighted by early probings into the genetic basis of resistance. (4) Much work on casual agents with special emphasis on viruses and nematodes. (5) Stir- rings in the area of what might be called "cultural" control, i.e. the manipulation of crop-pathogen-environment in a number of ways. (6) As expected, a burst of popular research in the bio- chemistry of host-parasite relations. More, at least better, research in all of these areas would be helpful, but there is no great concern on this point. We can get by at the present level if we have to, and normal increments will do an adequate job in these well-recognized and popular areas. It is in certain ill-defined areas of unique concern to plant pathology that the real trouble lies. These are currently peri- pheral areas, programs carried on mostly by established men as "spare-time" activities. The need is somehow to remove -72-

the barriers to vigorous prosecution of these problems, perhaps by sophisticated methods (operations research, systems analysis, mathematical models, or whatever), to improve the climate of opinion so that these problems become acceptable as doctoral- thesis problems, research appointments, and so on. As an indication of the kind (but not the extent) of these special chal- lenges, the following are cited at random: 1. disease loss measurement and survey techniques, Z. social impact of disease — disease hazards, 3. biology of quarantine — experimental plantings in overseas areas, 4. geographic origin of plant pathogens, 5. inoculum potential and dynamics, 6. logistics of vector activity, 7. economics of loss — consumer, producer, society, 8. analysis of epidemics, 9. disease forecasting, 10. instrumentation (e. g. , aerial photography), 11. cultural practices as related to disease incident and control, and 1Z. biological warfare research, i. e. , analysis of disease by attempting purposely to produce or increase it. Pests: Animal Agents and Vectors Dr. George Decker, Illinois Natural History Survey Nature recognizes no such categories as pests, beneficial forms, wildlife or domesticated species, or the inalienable rights of man. In his ascent man selected, protected, and propagated certain plants and animals most desired by him; other species he regards as pests to be suppressed or, if possible, exterminated. To clothe and feed the vastly increased human population in America, a high level of agricultural production must be main- tained; without the benefits of pest control and other technological advantages, scarcity would be the rule and shortages of some products would prevail. Much of the information and many of the concepts pertaining to insects would apply as well to control of other types of undesired organisms. -73-

Changing economic conditions and higher standards of living tend to intensify the demand for better pest control; faced with higher costs, the farmer can no longer afford to share-crop with pests. Consumers will no longer tolerate insects affecting their health and comfort. Disagreement revolves only about the procedures to be followed. Since nature does so excellent a job, first attention seems logically to go to natural insect control. But, generally speaking, man can hardly hope to apply the combination of en- vironmental resistance factors; and even in nature it is not un- usual to find certain species which increase a hundred-fold from one year to the next, only to decline with equal or even greater abruptness. In applied insect control, there are two distinct methods of approach: (1) Population management, which is comparable to nature's plan and the ideal procedure wherever its application is practical; its great weakness is that, for the most part, it de- mands the full support and cooperation of every individual in the community, and for various reasons this is seldom attainable. (2) Crop protection, such as mechanical or physical measures, cultural control, biological control, or chemical materials. Two further points, often misunderstood, need emphasis. First: The charge is made that insect control upsets the balance of nature, whereas in reality man is attempting to correct an imbalance that has already occurred and which he is, usually, primarily responsible for having caused. Second: The bulk of time and money has been spent on studies aimed at non-chemical control, but for one reason or another these efforts have been far less productive; much of the money currently allocated to pesticidal chemicals is of necessity used to evaluate possible adverse side- effects. Research has provided much knowledge, but still only a small fraction of the amount that will be required, in view of the vast number of insects, their versatility, and their genetic adaptability. It is imperative that we maintain a balance be- tween the various branches of entomology; the usual tendency of legislative bodies is to favor applied over basic aspects, action programs over research. The Congress has experienced some change of heart of late, but little of this has sifted down to the state level. Progress in the past has moved by a series of abrupt steps: cultural practices; mechanical devices; resistant varieties; chemicals (arsenical and fluorine compounds, botanical -74-

derivatives, chlorinated hydrocarbons, and organo-phosphates). Each has followed a breakthrough in basic research, and one often feels the need in agricultural and other non-medical biology for an institution like the National Institutes of Health to fill the gap be- tween the National Science Foundation and the strictly applied agencies. Cultural control. With the advent of ecology, formerly crude cultural methods were refined and practices such as clean plowing, crop rotation, sanitation, regulated planting dates, drainage, and irrigation came into vogue. Many were practical, but others had to be abandoned, and the only major item thus far overlooked is the possibility of return to highly diversified farm- ing and abandonment of monoculture. Mechanical control. With few exceptions, the devices that have been popular from time to time have gone by the board. Like cultural control, this approach must not be overlooked, but offers little promise. Resistant varieties. Plant varieties have been developed which are resistant to attack by specific insects (Hessian fly, corn borer, pine weevil, etc. ), but the time required is appreci- able and, like plant pathogens, the pests often readjust to the new variety and curtail its useful life. If we knew more of the biology of resistance, and better how to rear colonies of insects, breed- ing programs would be more productive, despite the fundamental problem of linkage between resistance and undesirable qualities. Through evolutionary time, insects and other pests have eliminated susceptible strains and produced tough vegetables, tasteless fruit, and scrawny livestock. Now man selects for quality, size, and appearance, and has brought back many of the practically lost genes for susceptibility. Chemical control. Although to be regarded as emergency measures, these still form the backbone of all insect-control effort; they will continue until such time as suitable substitutes can be developed, and no effort should be spared to make them as effective and safe as possible. Results, particularly with DDT, have been phenomenal, and have saved countless lives and quantities of produce. We have an arsenal of upwards of 100 chemicals with one or more registered uses approved by the U. S. Department of Agriculture. These provide reasonable control of most if not all major pests, but there is room for improvement of effectiveness, economy, flexibility, and safety. -75-

Some lines of investigation that need increased attention are: (1) new chemicals possessing different modes of action; (2) chemicals possessing antimetabolic activity; (3) safer conventional insecti- cides; (4) systemic insecticides; (5) attractants; (6) repellents; and (7) application equipment and techniques. Biological control. Natural balance between parasite and predator, however effective in the long run, often does not pro- vide the level of control required. Major emphasis has been on importation of predators from areas overseas in the hope of controlling a previously imported pest. This is more often than not unsuccessful, and research — genetic, ecological, and so on — to improve this score is urgently needed. We should seek con- servation practices that will favor increase of the predator and carry on research in insect pathology of bacterial, fungal, pro- tozoan, virus, and nematode diseases. This latter will include greatly expanded research on insect pathogens, identification, cultural requirements, methods of propagation, handling, inocu- lation or dissemination, and factors governing infection and spread under laboratory and field conditions. Integrated micro- bial and chemical control should be explored. Physiological insect control. Physiological control is an extension and refinement of chemical control, but unique in many ways and having no particular concern for speed of action. The obvious example is sterilization of male screw-worm flies with cobalt-60. Additional pests should be studied in the detail neces- sary to suggest the feasibility of such an approach, as well as a search for chemosterilants to replace radiation. While there are about 4,000 entomologists, fewer than 2,000 are engaged in research and the majority of these are so engulfed by immediate demands that they have little time for more fundamental investigations. It might be informative to tabulate workers in various categories, number of species in- volved, and economic and esthetic consideration. The suspicion is that such an analysis would show entomology woefully neglected. There may be as many as two million insect species, about half of which have been described in some degree, but insect taxonomy is seriously inadequate in almost all regards. No one knows how many synonyms there are and how many distinct species now treated as one; only about one-tenth of described species can be identified in all stages, and in a very large per- centage of all species the adults can be identified in one sex only. -76-

We have far too few taxonomists, and even those are shamefully underpaid and allowed little time for productive research. It would take lifetimes of effort to develop a reasonably accurate in- ventory of insects of the world, yet museums often employ sev- eral times more taxonomists and curators for vertebrates and other relatively small groups of animals. The study of insect phylogency is still in its infancy, and the field should be en- couraged. It is more or less axiomatic that a prerequisite to control is a knowledge of the identity of the pest and a fairly close acquaintance with its biology and ecology. Much research is necessary if we are to fill the gaps — particularly data on population densities, insect dispersion, population fluctuations, host-pest relations, predators, and insect diseases, host spectra, phylogeny. As the aggregations of plant hosts, feeding insects, and insect predators become more complex we can ex- pect host relationships to become economically more important. Insect physiology is about 25 years old. Progress has been impressive but as yet has scarcely scratched the surface. Me- tabolism of important nutrients, when better known, may pave the way for more selective toxicants. It is conceivable that knowledge of the chemical structure of certain insect hormones could revolutionize insect control. Folic acid antimetabolites seem to induce sterility in female house flies and other insects. Studies of insect nutrition and the role of symbionts can lead to grater use of synthetic diets and promote rearing of large uni- form laboratory cultures, with obvious advantages for research. Insect genetics is virtually confined to the fruit fly. Ex- tending this kind of information to other species is an obvious must, leading to more effective strains of parasites and preda- tors, to hybridization, and so on. Certain critical problems stand out: (1) Insects are ex- tremely versatile, making rapid adjustment and pressing the entomologist to keep pace. (2) Lack of support for basic re- search means that the applied entomologist, at the battlefront, is getting too little and too late. (3) Public relations are a major consideration, since pesticides have become a focal point for criticism and condemnation, despite the testimony of com- mittees of the country's most distinguished scientists. (4) Many of our most destructive insects are of foreign origin. There may be 10, 000 species which, if introduced, could have -77-

undesirable impact on agriculture or public health. America might devote much greater attention to research abroad, which would discover and evaluate these threats. (See Supplement G. [F. DeEds]). Finally, in terms of sheer mass, it is well to recall that in many situations the amount of insect protoplasm produced yearly per acre exceeds the gain in weight by livestock pas- tured on the same area. Discussion of Decker's Presentation Weiss: Are there figures available on losses? Might it not be easier to reduce waste than increase yields? Decker: The value of 10 per cent* was first suggested about 1892, and has been repeated endlessly ever since. There is no dependable measure of health. We do know that potato production went up 100 per cent with the adoption of new chemicals. In any event, the 10 per cent loss must be recognized as a loss in spite of all that we are currently doing with our predominantly monoculture methods. Bronk: Are there pests for certain crops which need to be pre- served to avoid imbalances? Decker: No good evidence for this appears. Indeed, what we are trying to do with control measures is correct an imbalance. Reports of imbalance arising from use of pesticides are usually somewhat exaggerated. Nutrition Dr. W. H. Sebrell, Jr. , Institute of Nutrition Sciences, Columbia University Consideration of nutrition problems involves, in addition to the immediate issues, awareness of politics, of education, 'Compare with this the following values contributed by Dr. H. A. Rodenhiser, USDA, recently: Crop losses from disease in the U.S., $3 billion annually; from pests, $4 billion; livestock losses, $2.4 billion; losses from weeds, $4 billion. -78-

religion, ethics, and morals — the viewpoints of social anthro- pology. Nutrition breaks down into two issues — energy require- ments and essential substances. The latter are used for energy, up to maxima of about 50 per cent, in extreme conditions of calorie insufficiency. In the organism, calorie needs come first; acute shortages result in famine. When instances of famine occur, there is usually an outpouring of sympathy. Relief from foreign countries tends to meet the problem on an emergency basis, as we have seen in Haiti fairly recently. In general, we don't need to worry about acute hunger in the context of this discussion. The chronic problem is as it relates to amino acids. Wherever man has found a substitute for human energy in performing work, the population tends to obesity, as it does in the United States. Calories are a part of the total world energy supply. We need to find sources of power other than man in many areas. On a worldwide basis, the major threat is kwashiorkor — chronic protein deficiency — which is far and away the greatest public health problem we have. It is a leading cause of death in the period between weaning and five years of age, during which demands for protein are high and intake limited. This, not parasites or infection, limits the population of Asiatic countries, resulting in a death rate at this age level of as much as 50 per cent. Infection represents only the immediate pre- cipitating stress. Population increase is the greatest problem facing the present-day world. Unless checked, as by war, pestilence, or famine, it tends to cancel out any efforts to improve the food supply. It would be possible, for example, to quadruple the rice production of India by adopting Japanese methods in present acreage, but unless population is brought under control intelli- gently, it will avail little. The question is whether society will devise a means whereby the numbers can be leveled off ration- ally. What are sources of protein? Animal foods are preferred wherever possible. Fish flour and meal offer promise for in- creasing the proportion of animal foods in what is predominantly a cereal-based food supply for the human species, if they can be prepared economically and made acceptable. Oilseed press cakes - cottonseed, copra, peanut, soybean, etc. — which may run to as much as 40 per cent protein and which are now largely -79-

wasted, are possible sources. Another is the legumes. These are little known, except that a considerable number have a wide variety of undesirable toxic properties. Yeast, algae, masses of bacteria, molds (fermentation of soy improves the amino acid content), are all possibilities, though they are generally not yet accepted in the United States. Some help might be expected from the chemical industry in the production of protein isolates or of amino acids. Wheat, for example, is deficient only in lysine, which can be synthetically produced; soy is deficient in methionine. By adding the missing items, complete protein might be developed. Food and Agriculture Organization is trying, of course, to increase crop production, but this by itself falls short. Estab- lished patterns of tropical agriculture are little short of suicidal. The staple in some areas, manioc, is but two per cent protein, and very poor protein at that; in one sense it is the chief cause of kwashiorkor. Yet its production is being pushed by the Brazilian government. There is no alternative but to educate the primitive peoples, to whom food is food, as to qualitative differences in foods. Weaning is traditionally related directly to the food of the adults in the family, i. e. , manioc. Current agricultural policies must be reoriented. There is no important difference in animal and plant pro- teins provided all essential amino acids are present in sufficient quantities, but we do need more information on all aspects of the metabolism of the eight amino acids needed in the human system. Food needs have all too frequently been predicated on a calorie basis, leaving amino acids out of account and dis- regarding the lipids. All this complicates the picture, but it cannot be avoided. Lipid nutrition is a serious problem in the United States, but heretofore we have not had the tools to deal with it; we now have these techniques at hand. Education is a glaring lack. There is a shortage of trained people in the underdeveloped countries. Few anthropologists know enough about nutrition to study food habits adequately — habits which are made early in life and are hard to change. Various mixtures are being tried as food additives now on an experimental basis, in part as an outcome of work done by the Food and Nutrition Board under a grant from the Rockefeller Foundation. In Guatemala, cornmeal, cottonseed flour, and a little yeast provide an acceptable mixture which is soon going into commercial production; in Nigeria, peanut flour is mixed with casein; in India, peanut butter and a chick-pea material -80-

known as Bengal gram is produced at the rate of five tons per day in Mysore; and so on. Nutrition training in United States medical schools is so meagre as to be almost non-existent. Students at Columbia have but one two-hour lecture in four years, which is woefully in- adequate. Some medical schools have none. True, biochemistry appears in the curriculum, but present-day biochemistry is largely enzymology. Physicians need training in nutrition as related to public health. More than basic research we need investigations in food technology. Much is now wasted, lost through spoilage (even the simplest methods of preservation are not known or not used in many countries), is only seasonally available, and so on. In some cases, we need to know how to recover the usable materials economically, e. g. , the recovery of what may be very good pro- tein from the fiber of coconut presscake. Disposal of our surpluses is a problem. While there can be no fundamental objection to sending our agricultural materials abroad, it must be done with the aim of raising the recipient countries to a level of self-sufficiency, without establishing a dependency situation or using these countries as a dumping ground for our produce. Technical help ought to be sent, but often we do not have it. We would do well to liberalize PL 480 to stimulate more research on meeting food needs of the countries concerned within their own resources, and less on ways of pro- tecting and marketing our own crops; a certain amount of liberali- zation is now going on. We must take into account the food habits, the agriculture, the health, the educational systems, and the economic status of the developing countries in any program aimed at helping them out. For example, Guatemala's economy is based on corn, and we would disturb it at our peril. Yet there is a need for protein. Hence ministries of health push for more protein — ministries of finance and agriculture for more corn! By intro- ducing poultry culture into this economy, the Purina Company, importing only some feed concentrates, was able to bring the cost of broilers from $ 1. 00 to 39 cents a pound, to the benefit of all. One of the big problems in the developing countries is their failure to integrate their financial, economic, agricultural, educational, and public health programs. -81-

Food: Preservation, Protection, Etc. Dr. Roy Newton, Three Rivers, Michigan In this country we have such an abundance of food that it is a problem in the economy and an embarrassment to more than one governmental agency and administration. This situation will change under pressure of population growth and the loss of till- able land to other uses. Wastes occur at all points, from planting of the crop to consumption at the table. Some of this is waste of potential production through poor soil management, improper seed selec- tion, and unwise fertilizer application, and some is due to pests and diseases. During harvest, processing, and distribution, losses change from potential to actual. Since colonial days we have made revolutionary changes, including much food prepara- tion by industry that was formerly done in the kitchen. We have rapid and refrigerated transportation, but we move our foods much longer distances and expect higher quality on arrival. In one respect we are little if any better off, and that is in respect to weather information of immediate value to the farmer. We can select neither planting nor harvest dates on the basis of reliable forecasts, yet most of the world's major famines are the direct result of erratic weather. Farm mechanization releases manpower for industry; fossil fuels save grain and forage formerly fed to beasts of burden. But high-speed mechanization has the disadvantage that it leaves sizeable portions of some crops in or on the ground at harvest time, and despite rapid transportation and passable market reports, we will fail to regulate harvest and shipment in an orderly fashion, with a resultant tremendous loss of perish- ables in terminal markets. Food losses, aside from mechanical damage, result from destruction of essential nutrients, impairment of flavor or tex- ture, production of toxic substances, and invasion by pathogens. The food industry knows that these must be offset by scrupulous cleanliness, low temperature, and quick handling; but practices in the home kitchen often are not as efficient as those in the processing plant. Specific protection of a food item depends on knowledge of the composition and of changes — changes from in- fection, from chemical reactions within the food, by reaction -82-

with oxygen or the physical stresses of temperature changes, varying humidity, or abrasion — acting singly or together. Some progress has been made toward reducing deleterious enzyme action and oxidation; knowledge of the composition of various food materials and the reactions which cause spoilage is leading to new processing methods. But the ultimate composition of natural foodstuffs is so complex that none is completely explored; the enzymes released from ruptured cells and from invading organ- isms are so numerous, and the reactions are so complicated, that we have only broad guidelines to go by. (1) Bacterial spoil- age may be retarded by storing at low temperatures, by desic- cation, by incorporation of salt and sugar, by changing the pH of the medium, by the apparent antibiotic effect of certain spices and smoke, by destroying bacteria with heat and sealing, by beta and gamma radiation (often giving undesired flavor and odor), by the addition of antibiotics (not yet widely used), and by adding one of a few proven harmless chemicals. (2) Deterioration by oxygen can be partly controlled by packaging to exclude oxygen and certain active light wavelengths which catalyze it, or by use of an anti-oxident. (3) Enzymes inherent in most food substances which, when released, cause deterioration may be partly con- trolled by flash-heat treatment. A delicacy to one group is repulsive to another. Taste preferences for highly spiced foods probably originated in warm climates before artificial refrigeration, and was one means of disguising incipient spoilage. Refrigeration is now generally available in this country, but the taste habits remain. In many parts of the world insects are prized in the diet; in others they are strongly rejected. A major area of waste is the home kitchen and dining table. Perhaps this is an aspect of our "standard of living"; perhaps it is a valuable safety factor. In one sense the high levels of animal foods in the diet represent a waste, but it is a highly prized element. Furthermore, the expanding and con- tracting numbers of food animals help to keep our agricultural economy in balance. Pests and pathogens are still with us, though the chemical industry is doing an excellent job of providing control chemicals and has accepted the responsibility of proving their safety when used in this way. To be sure, the cost is high and getting higher each year as the industrial processing of food increases. -83-

Food processing in this country is moving toward prepared foods, ready to eat, or at least "kitchen-ready. " No other nation has such a vast centralized system, saving labor and in- suring uniformity, as that represented by our nationally distri- buted consumer packaged foods. No other nation is so vulner- able to attack on its food supply by covert enemy agents. The danger lies in the ease with which widespread poisoning of our food could be achieved. Recommendations designed to safeguard these supplies have thus far been ignored. In all but the most favored nations, food is a limiting factor in the move to a higher social order. Population growth, if it precedes information and facilities for production, leads to poverty, ill health, and inhibited educational programs — this in turn to more people, more poverty, and so on. Unless knowledge grows faster than population, we shall see the same here. We must face this issue in times of abundance when effective meas- ures are yet possible. Natural Fibers* Dr. Verne L. Harper, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture Wood will probably continue to be the chief source of plant fibers and is available in abundance, easily harvested. It is but one of the forest resources. Multiple-use forest management will allow us also to use the forests for recreation, water con- servation, range, fish and wildlife, and still permit ample timber production. These five basic resources are produced or maintained on half of the total land area of the United States, comprising 775 million acres of forest lands, 530 million acres of prime timber- land, 705 million acres of range lands (some open range, some intermingled forest and range). One-half to two-thirds of all stream flow originates in forested areas; half of the nation's cattle and more than three-fourths of the sheep are grazed for at least six months of the year on forest range. While there may be more efficient systems for producing forage, it will be some time before great changes in the social climate are made. If livestock 'This summary incorporates comments by Professor Korstian and by Dr. George M. Jemison, Acting Assistant Chief of the Forest Service, who reviewed the first draft in the absence of Dr. Harper. -84-

are forced off the range, it will probably be for reasons other than efficiency, e.g. , for wildlife production. There are as many as ten million big-game animals in the forests. About half of the forested range lands and three-fourths of the privately held forests are in small parcels of 50 acres or less, practically all of which are poorly managed — especially forest junk. Wood supports a major segment of our nation's industry. It ranks about fourth in the nation in consumer income — about 25 billion dollars annually or roughly five per cent of the gross national product. The present harvest amounts to Z00 million tons, which is four times the gross take of iron ore, despite the fact that losses from fire, insects, and diseases equal commer- cial use. Three and a quarter million workers are employed in the timber industry, in the broadest sense of the term. Needs for timber products are expected to double in the next 40 years, due to population increases, although some shifts within this overall demand may be anticipated. Consideration might now be given to problems in three categories of use: (1) wood in unaltered form, i.e. , lumber, veneer, etc. ; (Z) wood as fiber, paper, etc. ; and (3) wood as a chemical raw material. Two-thirds of all timber harvest is processed into solid wood — some 44 billion board feet per year. The remaining third goes into pulp, chemicals, and fuel. One hundred thirty species are used in greater or lesser degree. This incurs a loss of seven million tons as sawdust; although some improve- ment in saws and veneer slicers has been accomplished and some uses for sawdust found, present methods are wasteful. Experimentally, wood has been heated and cut into lumber with a knive, but this method is not as yet used commercially. Some even speculate on the use of sonic or ultrasonic forces to cleave wood to desired sizes. Wood shrinks, swells, and checks, which adversely affects its durability and paintability. There has been much productive research on drying processes, but little on the fundamentals of the movement of moisture or blocking transfer; for certain high- value items, polyethylene glycol impregnation is effective. De- cay has been reduced by resort to toxic chemicals, and, in the laboratory, by removing thiamine as a way of starving the decay organisms. Engineering of wood is a problem from which archi- tects and design engineers tend to steer clear. Fundamental -85-

research is needed. The efficient use of wood for structural purposes can be advanced by more precise information on struc- tural and strength factors and on better methods for joining wood members. Better knowledge of adhesion and adhesives is needed. Once derived largely from conifers, wood fibers are now being recovered from a wider variety of species. Fast-growing varieties of hardwoods are coming into the picture. But there remains the problem of transportation to the pulping plants; here there is an opportunity for very large savings. High-yield pulp- ing processes have been developed; increasingly, pulps are blended to provide requisite product characteristics. Research is needed to improve the quality of high-yield pulps and to expand their use in new products. Pulp yield is roughly inverse to quality; if lignin is included, as in groundwood pulp, yields are high. We need methods for separating lignin from the carbo- hydrates. Lignin is still the major challenge in chemical utilization of woods. It constitutes one-third of the weight and is available in quantities, from pulping alone, of millions of tons per year. Like petroleum, wood is a complex substance, and chemical utilization will depend in part on achieving methods for its fractionation into the simpler components — cellulose, lignin, and extractives. Basic processes may then be developed for a multichemical industry, although there are, of course, a number of already established chemicals derived from wood, such as furfural, levulinic acid, and so on. In summary: (1) Production and utilization are inter- dependent. (2) Solid wood products require the best resources. (3) Methods are needed whereby unmerchantable portions and wood residues from present processes can be profitably utilized. The trend in wood utilization is toward increased fiber consump- tion, but no appreciable change in chemicals use. (4) There is urgent need for more basic research. Sixty million dollars is now spent by industry, four million dollars by the Federal Government, and perhaps two million dollars by the states and universities, on utilization research. Funds for all research in forestry is about 92 million dollars — 66 per cent by industry, 27 per cent by the Federal Government, and seven per cent by universities. Such lag as there is may be blamed on the following facts: (1) Except for pulp and paper, the wood-using industries are not sufficiently research-minded. -86-

(Z) There is a decided lag in public support. (3) The univer- sities, which carry 21 per cent of agricultural research as a whole, and but seven per cent of forestry research, must assume the burden of education and training as well. The field is not getting the trained men that it needs, though the U.S. Department of Agriculture does meet the situation in part by sending some of its younger people back to the universities for additional training at government expense. Somehow, forestry schools must be en- couraged to increase their emphasis on research. (See Supplement H. [A. S. Gregory]); **(See Supplement I. [ G. S. Allen]). Artificial Fibers Dr. Herman Mark, Brooklyn Polytechnic Institute The consumption of natural fibers in the United States in I960 amounted to about 6, 500 million pounds (30 pounds per capita); about 85 per cent of the total demand. Synthetics is an 800 million dollar industry, producing 1,300 million pounds dis- tributed as follows: all types of rayon, 600 million; nylon, 300 million; acrylics, 200 million; polyester, vinyls, polyolefins, 200 million. A few representative prices are: Nylon tire cord $0. 90 per Ib. Nylon hosiery yarn 2.50 " " Nylon staple 1.05 " " Rayon tire cord 0.56 " Rayon yarn 0. 78 " Rayon staple 0.32 " Acrylic high-grade yarns 2.20 " " Acrylic staple 0.80 " Propylene staple fiber, which is now being developed, could be as cheap as 25 cents per pound. All research is carried on by private industry, which spends about seven per cent of its volume income for research, amounting to about 50 million dollars. In Europe and the Soviet Union, more responsibility is assumed by the central govern- ments. This research turns out fibers and, coincidentally, basic -87-

information on macromolecules. The problem is how best to use this information for the improvement of technology. Two aims underlie all research in artificial fibers — how to achieve standard performance at lower cost and how to achieve exceptional performance irrespective of cost. The former can be approached by: (1) searching for less expensive raw materials, as the substitution of farm wastes and by-products of the utiliza- tion of coal and oil for more expensive sources. Synthetic fibers can be blended, in textiles, with natural fibers because the for- mer are customarily hydrophobic. Synthetic fibers could, of course, be made also from renewable resources except that it is not now economically feasible. (2) Seeking savings by automat- ing, either to save labor or to speed up the process, or both. (3) Seeking wholly new ways of fabricating — materials composed of very thin Kraft paper plus adhesives, non-woven fabrics, heat- sealed seams to replace sewing. When new fibers are developed, auxiliary technologies of fabrication, dyeing, anti-static treatment, and so on, seem to come along without much lag; occasionally there are crucial failures. One device of this kind is the spinning of conjugate fibers — two interpenetrating polymers forming a core and a surface layer (e. g. , nylon surrounded by protein such as soy- bean or milk derivatives). The one lends strength, the other desirable texture or dyeing properties. The frontiers of exceptional fibers are impressive. The strongest synthetic fibers have tensile strengths up to 350, 000 psi (cotton is about 80,000, steel about two million); the most elastic fibers have reversible elongations up to 600 per cent and do not react with ozone; some special fibers can stand tempera- tures of 1,000°C for about 30-40 minutes; the specific gravity of some synthetic fibers is as low as 0. 90; some fibers are re- sistant to acids and bases up to 150°C. It is well to remember that, as stated, all of these fibers could be made from renewable resources; that they are not now so produced is a matter of economics. Discussion of Closing Presentations (Note: In order to conserve time, comments were omitted between papers given during the latter -88-

part of the second day. The sequence of remarks has been somewhat altered below in an effort to con- solidate the material and to incorporate it into dis- crete categories.) Insect Control Weiss: The possibility suggests itself, in view of the difficulty encountered in establishing parasites and predators, of scaling the whole thing down to tissue culture. Polio was solved in this fashion and perhaps insect pathology might similarly yield. Decker: We are a long way from that, it seems. The number of species involved is so very large that even in the case of pathogens it is more promising to bring control organisms in from the field, after observations on what happens under natural conditions. In many attempts to culture insects, eight to ten generations of inbreeding brings out deleterious recessives and the colony is lost. Weiss: Another possibility would be to undertake mass culture of viruses, this material then to be disseminated. Byerly: Nematodes, reared on wax moth larvae, then Pablum, have been established on the coddling moth. Irving: But complications are many. The bacterium parasitic on the Japanese beetle, for instance, seems to sporulate only on beetle larvae in nature or, in the laboratory, on juice from these larvae. Nutritional Problems Sebrell: The presentation on nutrition may have been over- simplified. Vitamin deficiencies do exist and are im- portant problems in some areas — such as beriberi in Burma and vitamin A deficiency in Indonesia — but the synthetic vitamin industry has made additives so generally available and inexpensive that the problem doesn't approach that associated with amino acids. Even among the several million so-called vegetarians, where one might expect a B-12 lack, most actually employ eggs or dairy products in the diet to an appreciable extent. Very largely, the -89-

nutrition problem is solved at minimum levels by provid- ing staple cereal to the children at a rate based on total nitrogen need together with other foods to meet the need for the eight essential amino acids. Food and Agriculture Organization uses tryptophane as a base and calculates the others in reference to this. Egg albumin is presently the best all-round source of the needed amino acids. Irving: Some evidence now suggests that lysine may not be so important as generally accepted. Voris: Natural foods will anyhow, if available in adequate amounts to supply calorie needs, usually have enough of this particular component. Sebrell: An exception, of course, is manioc. For adults, wheat flour might be adequate, but the problem is more acute with children because of requirements for growth. This ac- counts for the incidence of kwashiokor. Weiss: Apparently there is competition between demands for tissue formation and for the synthesis of antibodies. As a result, children who are either deficient or marginal for protein in the diet are, during periods of rapid growth, much more susceptible to infectious disease. Sebrell: The nitrogen balance is critical. Haemoglobin forma- tion and growth, for example, have different amino acid requirements. Diseases such as measles, mumps and whooping cough, which we in the United States think of as relatively mild, have a much higher mortality rate in Guatemala and other protein-deficient countries. Fish Meal and Fish Flour Here we seem to have one of the more promising items to be used as a protein supplement in human diet. Fish flour is somewhat the more complex, involving solvent extraction with fluoridated hydrocarbons. When filets are used, as against the whole fish, costs are greatly increased. Presently, there are operations in Morocco, Norway, and Chile: South Africa has abandoned its program, at least for the time being. Schaefer: Except in Africa, where the material is already being consumed as is, there is an added cost for taking out un- -90-

desirable odors and flavors. This brings the cost of flour to 15 cents per pound based on an initial cost of fish meal of 100 dollars a ton, f. o.b. New York (70 dollars in Chile). It requires a bit over five tons of anchovies to produce a ton of meal. To maintain low costs the whole fish must be used, and it must be a species of fish low in the food chain, which are the small-sized fish. Pike: Simply to remove the heads and tails of sardines adds appreciably to the cost. Fish meal is currently used as a poultry feed supplement in some of the more advanced countries, up to perhaps six per cent protein increment. On the whole, fish protein must compare favorably in cost and practicability with dry skim milk, although a bioassay is needed to give a standard product. Trace Elements Russell: In highly weathered areas, such as Australia, south- eastern United States, and so on, where pH is high or low, there is serious depletion of molybdenum, cobalt, and other trace elements. As we do a better job on supplying nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium in the United States, the situation with respect to trace-element deficiencies is increasingly recognized. But we need to know more of the geochemistry of the trace elements. Allaway: In some areas of New England, cobalt is regularly added to all animal feeds to avoid the possibility of nutrient deficiency. This is not actually a depletion problem but rather a realization that cobalt is lacking in certain of the soil types. The difference between deficiency and toxicity is at best slight, perhaps only on the order of several parts per million (e. g. , 0.1-0.2 ppm of selenium may be adequate; 4 ppm toxic). Selenium is a particularly puzzling problem; in the northern Great Plains it accumulates in such toxic quantities that livestock suffer loss of hair; in other areas one finds high incidence of muscular dystrophy which can be cured by injection of proper amounts of the salt. The entire question of selenium is complicated by the fact that it is an established carcinogen, yet for some species is an essential element. -91-

Bronk: In reports from Brazil we find evidence of differential accumulation of the material as between two species of the same plant genus. Allaway: It appears to be an essential element for some species of Astragalus, in which it accumulates, but by an unknown mechanism. Where harmful, its effect seems to lie in the fact that it substitutes for sulfur in the protein molecule and thus prevents proper molecular bonding. Medical Schools Curricula Bronk: The National Academy has had appreciable effect on radiology as taught in the medical schools; perhaps it could similarly improve the situation with respect to nutrition. Sebrell: The trouble lies in the fact that the curriculum is al- ready so filled and professors so reluctant to relinquish any of their courses that only a basic revision of the cur- riculum can provide appreciable blocks of time for nutri- tion studies. The American Medical Association is cur- rently making a study of teaching in the medical schools of the country. Byerly: Actually, one cannot consider the medical curricula without also considering the premedical work customarily offered. Bronk: Very possibly the professorships in nutrition offered by the National Institutes of Health under its education and re- search program will help. Sebrell: In this country the level of nutrition is so high that a generation of physicians is appearing which has no ex- perience with or concept of serious malnutrition. These men tend to deprecate the problem; yet if we were to drop the vitamin D from milk, we would soon have the cases of rickets appearing. • Newton: Perhaps the problem goes back to the premedical cur- ricula and the high schools. -92-

Public Understanding and Public Policy Sebrell: As for the foreign programs, it is essential to under- stand the soil, climate, agricultural practices, food habits and technology of the underdeveloped countries -- not just rely on a convenient prescription of vitamin pills and dried milk. Schaefer: It may prove necessary to separate out, and train differently, those physicians or other personnel who are destined for overseas duty. Sebrell: The Peace Corps, if its applicants apply United States standards, will have not the remotest notion of the levels of malnutrition and sanitation under which so many of the world's peoples live. A serious and realistic indoctrina- tion is imperative. Byerly: One cannot but wonder just what sort of indoctrination these recruits are getting at Penn State, Yale, and similar centers. Allaway: To some of us it seems that more than a fair share of insubstantial notions in nutrition derives from the MD's. Weiss: The complex nature of resources issues should be pre- sented at the college level — the fact that man exists in a finite environment. There should be obligatory training in human ecology and resource management, including the fundamentals of nutrition. Swanson: Too often, the success of such a venture would turn on the availability of men to handle these courses. These appointments are not usually considered glamorous. There is perhaps a need first to educate our colleagues before we essay to instruct the students. Went: One possible step forward is the so-called "green version' of the American Institute of Biological Science text, written by Marston Bates, which introduces a considerable amount of ecological material. Swanson; Unfortunately, this is the version that has thus far received the least enthusiastic reception. -93-

Revelle: While the problems are reasonably well known, great caution must be exercised not to overestimate the quality of our present knowledge of answers and solutions and, by presenting them, freeze prematurely a set of faulty con- cepts. What we need to stress is methods of study, con- cepts of order of magnitude, transformations of matter and energy, and so on. Bronk: So few persons are encouraged to look broadly in the graduate schools that one of the special appeals of oceanog- raphy is that it forces just this issue. But even if the high schools presented a broad view, too many of their gradu- ates would be discouraged in subsequent college years by professors with a parochial view. Russell: In our agricultural schools, for example, certainly at the undergraduate level, introductory courses are service- oriented, and yet we seem to expect the students to see the interrelationships themselves. When we attempt to teach these relations in an integrative course, we are embarrassed at the difficulty we encounter in trying to find a staff mem- ber who can handle it. Revelle: Even in government, perhaps especially in government, this same fragmentation pertains. -94-

FINAL SESSION Comments by Dr. Notestein The report on renewables should not be economic, but considerations of natural resources must be put into an economic framework. Two points might be emphasized: (1) Private enter- prise is highly productive but cannot take the long view -- govern- ment can and must. (2) Whatever the state of technology, it is cheaper to work the richer resources; hence they are first ex- ploited. We have the obligation to begin conservation of the rich supplies before they are exhausted. It is terribly easy to underestimate the need, for population will at least double and may reach three times its present levels in a relatively short time. We are viewing matters from the United States as members of the top level of the world's wealthiest peoples. To raise the world generally to United States levels leads to fantastic requirements. Half of the persons born last year will be alive to the year 2040! The real wasters are the peasant, sub-sufficient economies which have no possibility of providing health, literacy and well- being to the societies they support. How quickly can these be brought to a technological level? By what methods can this be done quickly, with low capital investment and simple techniques, against a background of three per cent yearly growth-rate in population? Most of what we have debated in the past two days requires high capital and high skills. None of this will be possible unless populations are controlled. Asiatics are generally lethargic, as a result of nutritional inadequacies; thus research on dietary problems must have top priority. There is a perilously small margin of protection in the hard-pressed societies. We cannot safely develop complex trade and regional dependencies while so thin a margin remains. In West Java, for example, trivial economic and political disrup- tions lead to disastrous results affecting large segments of the population. -95-

Before we submit to undue pessimism on the matter of birth control, it is well to remind ourselves that the United States brought its own birth rate down in spite of, rather than because of, political and religious pressures, public and private. By contrast, the governments in the underdeveloped countries are actively on the side of population control. We have perhaps 20-30 years to solve the issue, and it will take a major outlay of systematic effort. Discussion Byerly: There is a question how much of our basic individuality and freedom we are going to be willing to give up in order to attain efficiency. Weiss: Perhaps these freedoms can be surrendered through in- sight and eventually societies will become so interdependent that they must get along with each other. Notestein: There cannot be a society with maximum technology and minimum subsistence; there must be a "meat margin" in the diet as a buffer if an integrated economy is to survive. White; As matters now stand, the gap between nations as regards gross national product per capita will widen in the next few decades irrespective of what we may manage to do. Notestein: The high-birth-rate societies now carry a tremendous youth burden of individuals not yet at working age, up to 40 per cent under 15 years of age. In agricultural economies, more than 80 per cent of the total effort may have to be allocated to food production, in spite of which the people are still badly nourished. Byerly: It would be worth-while to attempt to set minimum standards of education that will support a technological society. Such gaps as continue to exist between nations will serve only to increase the tensions. -96-

Comments by Dr. Allaway Species of plants now thoroughly studied are very few. This effort should be expanded to include many other species, especially as it relates to studies of variability in chemical composition. We need a bank of information and germ plasm relating to use of plants as manufacturers of needed items. The present structure of research doesn't seem to provide a way for accomplishing this although the tax-supported institutions have the physical facilities needed. Pos- sibily the independent foundations will have to play a role in the establishment of a series of centers for investigating in depth the biology of non-economic plants. Waste utilization, especially of municipal wastes, is not adequately stressed. Possibly we should look to establishing systems involving higher plants and microorganisms in the same operation. However much we need work on ecological matters and on the biology of natural systems, it would be unfortunate if we neglected investigations of the fine structure and mechanisms of important biological reactions, looking to maximum control over growth and yield. The research structure is adequate but the level of effort is too low. An interdisciplinary analysis of food problems in an under- developed country should precede any technical assistance pro- gram. We ought, in a sense, to have an alternative to fish meal -- changes of land use, land development, social changes, etc. Teams of persons including nutritionists, economists, food tech- nologists, transportation specialists, soil and plant scientists, animal husbandmen, etc. , should replace individuals. One or more alternative schemes should be proposed to interested governments. It might very well be that we could compete far more effectively with the Communists in this area than in the headlong race for space domination, where the Soviet Union has already an appreciable lead. Comments by Dr. Russell In the United States, soil science, like all science, needs continued support and understanding. We need an interdisciplin- ary approach to such nagging questions as the utilization of lignin. -97-

There is a critical need for basic data-collection, a stock- pile of relevant information -- coast and geodetic surveys, topo- graphic survey, stream gauging. These data are noticeably lack- ing when one visits foreign countries. These researches are not glamorous, and it is often difficult to maintain long-term pro- grams in these areas. Interest and money go more often to new and more exciting jobs, but the other is basic for sound manage- ment procedures. Biological systems are dynamic systems; energy utilization should be considered, with emphasis on transport and interchange. We should explore more fully the utilization of arid, tropi- cal, and other marginal areas. We need to investigate the long- term implications of geochemistry. Basic research should be integrated with applied reseach, not prosecuted separately from it. Any program must take into account the social, political, and economic implications, and must be applied so that it will be ef- fective. Research done by an action agency is inherently in jeopardy; it should be carried out by organizations established to do research, perse. Discussion Bronk: We have laid great emphasis here on the need for synthesis, yet the PhD thesis, which sets the pattern for the young research man, stresses intensive investigation of a minute area. Schaefer: This situation is aggravated by the departmental structure of universities and tends to defeat itself. Byerly: Too often the professor in charge virtually assigns bits of his own research program to successions of graduate students. Swanson: What we may need even more is a broad vision on the part of the general public. One possible solution to the graduate-student specialization problem is to modify the post-doctoral program to stress enlarged competence, somewhat as is done in the medical residency. All too many postdoctoral fellows become even more particu- larized. -98-

Weiss: Somewhere we must select out the smaller group of individuals with a particular capacity for synthesizing. Russell: At all levels of teaching, we can look for and emphasize principles that run across the field and point out where the cross-bridges occur. Bronk: In training we should aim to synthesize; the student will quickly enough gravitate to the fragmented approach. Possibly it would be helpful to require that graduate students spend some time in one of the inherently integrative fields, such as oceanography or agronomy. Comments by Dr. Irving We should first establish what might be called a "posture" in the current sense of that word --an attitude, goal or objective; define what it is that we seek and not simply resign ourselves to leaving our descendants with the dregs or wastes. How many non-Americans shall we help? Who shall they be? In what ways? To what extent? On what basis? Do we want interdependence be- tween nations? Is there an approach other than by government to government? We should have an inventory of resources, human and otherwise, renewable and non-renewable. We need to anticipate requirements, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Advances will necessitate both research and education on use. We need more ''useless" research. We must learn to produce things we don't need by techniques that are not economic against the day when we will need them. We would do well to move back from non-renewable to renewable materials, e.g. , from detergents to soap. We need research on human nutrition. Discussion Bronk: We shall have to face the attitude of those who urge that we use the richer resources now, on the assumption that, by the time we need them, techniques for exploitation of poorer resources will be available. Russell: A distinction needs to be made between reversible and irreversible changes. Construction of a highway is, in -99-

effect, irreversible; a shift of forested lands from lumber production to recreation is reversible. Pike: Resources may at times be incidental. In Belgium, Canada, and the United States, for example, large stocks of apparently waste materials containing uranium were stockpiled in the search for radium in times past. With the development of fission weapons and power, these be- came vitally important. We should similarly stockpile other materials with a view to possible future exploitation. Schaefer: People, too, are a resource. Attention might well be given to efficient allocation of qualified persons to research problems. For example, should we use higher-grade ores less efficiently or put research into developing techniques for exploiting lower grades? Where should the finite supply of talented persons be asked to devote their efforts? Comments by Dr. Swanson Genetics is to be viewed as a management science. We need to broaden the base of the gene pool. The gene pools are manageable, and how we manage them will determine the quantity and quality of the living resources. Who is to do it? In the past it has been handled by the Government and by the state univer- sities, not so much by the private universities. We could profitably undertake studies in fish genetics and in forest genetics. It is doubtful, however, if we need to stress basi-c genetics; it has its built-in momentum. Basic genetics has been getting a great deal of attention, but we must be careful to insure the flow of information into peripheral areas -- veterinary science, agriculture, psychology, social and economic sciences. Some curious situations arise. For example, the genes leading to malformed haemoglobin and sickle cell anemia prove, at the same time, to act as barriers to malaria in certain localities. What is the answer to preserving the one and ridding mankind of the other? Some would take one position; some would take the opposite. -100-

Discussion Bronk: We have seen here considerable emphasis on the im- portance of genetic stocks such as maize and sorghum, which are in one sense intellectual resources and tools for further research, just as helium is hoarded by the govern- ments of several nations (and squandered here in the United States), or as archeological remains are preserved in the national interest. Decker: Speaking of malaria, we cannot be overly complacent, lest in developing races of man that are highly susceptible - races that in the absence of control would be eliminated -- we set the stage for future epidemic outbreaks. Swanson: This is the same problem we encounter in the use of antibiotics. Comments by Dr. Revelle The most important resources are the people. Could we attack the question whether tropical peoples are of the same basic biological and genetic characteristics as those of the United States? There are, after all, differences in people, e.g. , in their tolerance of radioactive isotopes. Would there be virtue in a survey or assay on this point? What are the motivations and values, the ways of thought and action, of different societies? What can be done for education at all levels? How can we promote the image of science and clarify the motivations of scientists? Can the slow metamorphosis to a synthetic approach in the univer- sities be accelerated by establishing special interdisciplinary in- stitutes? Most who go into science are not much interested in the non-analytical approach; how can we get the dedicated individuals into this kind of investigation? In many ways cultural anthropology, in all of its implications, is one of the more important areas for emphasis. The United States should investigate the ecology of semi- arid and humid lands which are not characteristically a part of the domestic scene. Can we then somehow apply to these areas research at the same level and productivity as that which has been so effective on our own temperate soils? Agricultural re- sources are not strictly renewable so long as they depend on mining something, such as phosphorus or potassium. How can -101-

we make these basic plant nutrients genuinely renewable, rather than lose them to the oceans? Current surpluses argue for long- term basic planning in research, e.g. , on photosynthesis, versus short-range programs which lead only to more surpluses. Discussion Russell: We are even now adding fertilizer to soils which already have two to three per cent potassium, which illustrates the crucial need for research on release of nutrients. Nitrogen, in this particular, is not a problem of course. Byerly: It is one of the virtues of animal agriculture that it con- serves nutrients as manure. One of its chief problems is that of materials-handling. Comments by Dr. Schaefer Fisheries represent a particularly attractive resource for underdeveloped countries, as they require only low capital in- vestment. In a sense, all that is needed is to show these peoples what to catch, how to catch it, and where the fishing shoals lie. Discussion Notestein: Even the atmosphere must be regarded as a resource. Is there currently research in this area? Bronk: Yes, it is the responsibility of the Committee on Atmospheric Science. Comments by Dr. Decker In general we are faced with needless destruction of soils resources and an inefficient allocation of land to agricultural and non-agricultural uses. More comprehensive planning and zoning would be to our advantage. The land-bank principle, if divorced from political considerations, could promote conser- vation and would make possible additional production when and where needed. -102-

Food production competes with weeds, pests, and pathogens. The potential for development of insect populations is so great that we can confidently expect problems to emerge as crops are more intensively cultivated or as agriculture is intensified in the developing countries. Oaks, for example, are considered to have one of the richest insect fauna of any species. If the oak were, in effect, to be domesticated, consider how many of these might be- come significant pests. As the control of insects continues to stress chemicals, the situation regarding side-effects becomes more complicated. To a greater and greater extent, control is being put into the hands of professional men. Control of a given insect may bring on wholly unforeseen complications; when the tsetse fly population was substantially reduced in tropical regions, the hippopotamus emerged from its swamp habitat and consumed large quantities of upland forage. There is a critical need for permanent, adequately paid, jobs for taxonomists. Too often the newly graduated PhD's, ready and anxious to go to work in their fields of choice, find themselves impelled to become second-rate economic entomolo- gists for want of opportunities elsewhere. Funds are not gen- erally available from the granting agencies for other kinds of entomological research. Lastly, we should proceed more cautiously. It would be greatly to our advantage to insert a pilot-plant operation be- tween the test-tube level of research in the laboratory and attempts at full implementation in the field. Comments by Dr. Byerly We should make an inventory of resources and an estimate of the inherent capacity of these resources under sustained and beneficial use. We should consider carefully the energy cycle, from its emission by the sun to its eventual dissipation into space, and particularly the energy relation of evapotranspiration in relation to arid lands and tropics. Further attention is needed on the place of animals in the food chain and the efficiency of con- version by livestock, chiefly the output of product from individual reproductive units. It would require a doubling of animal and fish production to bring present populations to the existing United States diet standards. We need research on amino acids and on -103-

fats, and in particular on the relation of fats to protein, even in plants. We need to attack the lignin problem. Disease threatens our resources, and animal diseases such as avian leucosis threaten man directly. Research on virus neoplasms in animals has contributed to human medicine. Banks of germ plasm are required, and much more knowledge of host- parasite genetics. Ecological research must extend to restricted systems of agriculture, e. g. , the production of 20, 000 broilers or of 25, 000 beef cattle in a feed lot, as well as to the extensive natural ecosystems stressed in our discussions thus far. In a way, this is comparable to the urbanization of our people. Research may be unoriented research, problem-oriented basic research, applied research, or developmental research. It is the last which is the most costly. Increases are in order, with proper attention to maintaining balance and to insuring that the underprivileged areas do not get left entirely behind. We need new categories of such people as professional agriculturists to carry the load in the perhaps 150, 000 - 200, 000 commercial farms. Discussion Russell: Would it be helpful to have a professional degree in agriculture for the non-research student? This would avoid the present necessity of giving an essentially research de- gree, with the imposition of research-oriented training and requirements, to persons whose interests and aptitudes run rather to the application and extension of known tech- niques to the management of agricultural operations. Byerly: The trouble seems to be that individuals cannot see that they will gain appreciably by going to the agricultural schools. Research is not a business, and the best candi- dates tend to go into medicine and the professions. Swanson: The Johns Hopkins medical program is research- minded, and recognizes that basic medical research is very little different from biology or psychology. -104-

Comments by Professor Korstian* With the emphasis now being given to recreation as an im- portant part of the multiple use of national forests, to development of special recreational facilities, and to reservation of natural and wilderness areas, the need to transfer national forest land to the.national parks no longer exists. Dr. Harper emphasizes in his paper that the problems of wood utilization and wood production are interdependent. The solution of production problems arising from multiple-use forest management of public forests and from the uncertain management of small forest holdings will facilitate wood utilization. A major problem is how to use the'tons of presently unmerchantable wood now rejected by timber industries and the wood residues and pulping wastes resulting from present processing methods. The great need is for more basic research in the wood residues. Lignin is a major stumbling block. There is a pressing initial need for more funds, especially for basic research in forestry and related fields. Industry and the agricultural experiment stations in forested states should do more, particularly in view of the fact that the forestry schools were originally accredited to teach and are not yet fully prepared to assume a heavy burden of research. The situation will be improved if each school will specialize in a limited number of research fields for which they have reasonably adequate person- nel and equipment, rather than attempt to cover the entire spectrum. Funds for forest research in the U. S. Department of Agriculture should be kept on a fully adequate level to carry for- ward the research now under way and that now planned. Comments by Dr. White We should as a committee consider steps to arrive at estimates of world needs for incorporation in the report, despite the obvious difficulties in being precise, in terms of levels of living, populations, and time horizons. The parent 'These comments were submitted by Professor Korstian as a substitute for the statement made at the time of the conference. -105-

committee will need this as an important rhetorical device in presenting its case. It is a question of how to get valid data on these points. In any event, resource use is easier to arrive at than resource supply; we should not attempt the latter. Comments by Dr. Pike Four items come to mind that deserve special emphasis: (1) An assessment of human resources in our country, using the present situation as an impetus for the analysis. Persons differ widely in ability; there are splitters and lumpers in science, which may call for a corps of administrators to integrate. (2) A major push in the nature and utilization of lignin, perhaps subsidized in part by industry. (3) Studies of tropical forests and soils. (4) An inventory of what we have in the oceans which, after all, occupy three-fourths of the globe, and an analysis of what can be done with it. Not enough is known at present even to evaluate the problem. Comments by Dr. Hubbert We must recognize that the event through which we are living has no precedent whatsoever in human or geologic history, and that it cannot be repeated. It is a change which we cannot possibly stop or reverse and which is now proceeding at the steepest gradient; it is not a normal state of affairs, by no means a steady state. It is a man-made upheaval of the world ecology, perhaps made possible by the introduction and exploitation of fossil fuels. For the first time in human history we have energy supplies over and above those in the food we eat. This is truly a crisis stage in evolution. How then can we avoid a catastrophic outcome ? Our ignorance is not half so vast as our failure to use what we know. The integrative view is very difficult to find. It is not organized. There are no university jobs or courses for those who aspire to this view. How can we achieve this goal and persuade the universities to aim toward it? Most of what we have been considering has happened in our own lifetimes. The problem is how to influence the course of events. -106-