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Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
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B

Biographical Sketches of Committee Members

GERALD F. PERRYMAN, JR., Co-Chair, is an independent consultant. Upon concluding military service with the U.S. Air Force in 2002 as a major general, Gen Perryman joined Raytheon Company as vice president and lead executive for the company’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) Strategic Business Area. There he developed strategies for ISR growth using capabilities from across that diverse, global company, helping it provide integrated mission systems. Prior to his Raytheon work, Gen Perryman was assistant deputy chief of staff, Warfighting Integration, Headquarters U.S. Air Force, providing guidance and direction for transforming Air Force warfighting capability by integrating command and control, communications and computer networks, and ISR systems. Earlier Gen Perryman had led the Air Force’s Aerospace Command and Control and ISR Center at Langley Air Force Base. He had commanded the 14th Air Force, which encompasses all Air Force space operations forces worldwide. He had also commanded both an Air Force space wing and a strategic missile wing. He currently serves on the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Air Force Studies Board and is a past member of the Committee on Examination of the Air Force ISR Capability Planning and Analysis Process. A graduate of Texas A&M University, Gen Perryman received his MBA from the University of North Dakota.

ALLISON ASTORINO-COURTOIS, Co-Chair, is executive vice president at National Security Innovations (NSI), Inc. She has served as technical lead on a number of Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) multi-layer analysis (SMA) projects in support of U.S. forces and combatant commands. Prior to joining NSI,

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×

Dr. Astorino-Courtois worked for Science Applications International Corporation (2004-2007), where she served as a U.S. Strategic Command liaison to U.S. and international communities and was a tenured associate professor of international relations at Texas A&M University in College Station (1994-2003), where her research focused on the cognitive aspects of foreign policy decision making. She has received a number of academic grants and awards and has published articles in multiple peer-reviewed journals including International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Political Psychology, Journal of Politics, and Conflict Management and Peace Science. She has also taught at Creighton University and was a visiting instructor at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. Dr. Astorino-Courtois earned her Ph.D. in international relations from New York University.

JOHN F. AHEARNE is executive director emeritus of Sigma Xi, the Scientific Research Society; emeritus director of the Sigma Xi Ethics Program; and an adjunct professor of engineering at Duke University. Prior to working at Sigma Xi, Dr. Ahearne served as vice president and senior fellow at Resources for the Future and as commissioner and chair of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. He worked in the White House Energy Office and as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Energy at the U.S. Department of Energy. He also worked on weapons systems analysis, force structure, and personnel policy as deputy and principal deputy assistant secretary of defense. Serving in the U.S. Air Force, he worked on nuclear weapons effects and taught at the Air Force Academy. Dr. Ahearne’s research interests include risk analysis, risk communication, energy analysis, reactor safety, radioactive waste, nuclear weapons, materials disposition, science policy, and environmental management. He was elected to the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) in 1996 for his leadership in energy policy and the safety and regulation of nuclear power. Dr. Ahearne has served on and chaired numerous NRC committees related to U.S. strategic deterrence, including the Committee on Russian Academy of Sciences/U.S. National Academies Joint Committee on U.S.-Russian Cooperation on Nuclear Non-Proliferation; the Committee on Counterterrorism Challenges for Russia and the United States; and the Committee on Opportunities for U.S.-Russian Collaboration in Combating Radiological Terrorism. Dr. Ahearne earned his Ph.D. in physics from Princeton University.

GERALD G. BROWN is a Distinguished Professor of Operations Research and executive director of the Center for Infrastructure Defense at the Naval Postgraduate School, where he has taught and conducted research in optimization and optimization-based decision support since 1973, earning awards for both outstanding teaching and research. His military research has been applied by every uniformed service, in areas ranging from strategic nuclear targeting to capital planning. He has been awarded the Barchi, Rist, and Thomas prizes for military operations research

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×

and been credited with guiding investments of more than a trillion dollars. He has designed and implemented decision support software used by the majority of the Fortune 50 Companies, in areas ranging from vehicle routing to supply chain optimization. His research appears in scores of open-literature publications and classified reports, some of which are seminal references. Dr. Brown is a member of the NAE, a recipient of the U.S. Navy Distinguished Civilian Service Medal, an INFORMS fellow, and a founding director of Insight, Incorporated, the leading provider of strategic supply chain optimization tools to the private sector. He currently serves on NRC boards on Mathematics, Statistics and their Applications, and on Explosives and Survivability.

ALBERT CARNESALE is chancellor emeritus and professor at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). He was chancellor of the university from 1997 through 2006 and now serves as professor of public policy and of mechanical and aerospace engineering. Prior to joining UCLA, he was at Harvard University for 23 years as the Lucius N. Littauer Professor of Public Policy and Administration, dean of the John F. Kennedy School of Government, and provost of the University. Prior to that, he served in both government and industry. His research and teaching focus on public policy issues having substantial scientific and technological dimensions, and he is the author or co-author of six books and more than 100 articles on a wide range of subjects, including national security strategy, arms control, nuclear proliferation, the effects of technological change on foreign and defense policy, domestic and international energy issues, and higher education. He is a member of the NAE and of the Council on Foreign Relations; is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and of the American Association for the Advancement of Science; and serves on the board of directors of Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and on the advisory board of the RAND Corporation’s Center for Global Risk and Security. He was a member of the Obama administration’s Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future. He chaired the NRC Committees on NASA’s Strategic Direction, on America’s Climate Choices, on Sustaining and Improving the Nation’s Nuclear Forensics, and on U.S. Conventional Prompt Global Strike Capabilities. Dr. Carnesale holds a Ph.D. in nuclear engineering from North Carolina State University.

W. PETER CHERRY is an independent consultant who retired in 2010 as the chief analyst on the U.S. Army’s Future Combat Systems Program at Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC). He was responsible for analytic support to requirements analysis, performance assessment, and design trades. Previously, Dr. Cherry was leader of the Integrated Simulation and Test Integrated Program Team, focusing on test and evaluation planning, the development of associated models and simulations, and the development of the Future Combat System of

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×

Systems Integration Laboratory. He was a participant in the Future Combat Systems program from its inception, leading analysis and evaluation of concepts as a member of the Full Spectrum Team during the contract activities that preceded concept and technology development. Since the completion of his studies at the University of Michigan, he has focused on the development and application of operations research in the national security domain, primarily in the field of land combat. He contributed to the development and fielding of many of the major systems employed by the Army, ranging from the Patriot Missile System to the Apache helicopter, as well as command control and intelligence systems such as ASAS and AFATDS. In addition, he contributed to the creation of the Army’s Manpower Personnel and Training Program (MANPRINT) and to the Army’s Embedded Training Initiative. His recent research interests include peacekeeping operations and the development of transformational organizations and materiel. Dr. Cherry was a member of the Army Science Board and served as chair of the Board’s Logistics Subpanel. In addition he has participated over the past 10 years in independent reviews of the Army’s science and technology programs and on NRC studies addressing a variety of defense issues. Dr. Cherry received a Ph.D. in industrial engineering from the University of Michigan. He is currently a member of the Board on Army Science and Technology, a fellow of INFORMS, and a member of the NAE.

PAUL K. DAVIS is a senior principal researcher at the RAND Corporation and a professor of policy analysis in the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research interests include strategic planning and methods for improving it, decision-making theory, counterterrorism, and advanced methods of analysis and modeling (notably exploratory analysis and multiresolution modeling). He has authored or coauthored widely read books on defense planning, capabilities-based planning, portfolio analysis, and deterrence and influence theory, as well as an integrative review on social science for counterterrorism. Before joining RAND, Dr. Davis was a senior executive at the Department of Defense (DoD). He has served on numerous national panels for DoD, the National Academies, and the intelligence community. He also is a regular reviewer on several professional journals. Dr. Davis served as a member of the NRC Committee on Conventional Prompt Global Strike Capability and the Committee on Modeling and Simulation for Defense Transformation. He received his Ph.D. in chemical physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

STEPHEN DOWNES-MARTIN is currently a research professor at the U.S. Naval War College and has over 30 years of experience in developing and applying war gaming, game theory, decision analysis, and systems thinking to tactical, operational, and strategic military problems for a wide variety of government, military,

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×

aerospace, and commercial organizations in the United States and abroad. His research focus is on how decision support and assessment methods can be manipulated to deceive decision makers, how decision makers misuse such methods to deceive themselves, how to detect such attempts and protect from them. In 2010, he was awarded the Superior Civilian Service medal for in-theater support of I Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward) and Regional Command (Southwest) in Afghanistan. During Spring 2012, he supported in-theater the Afghan Assessment Group at ISAF HQ, Kabul. He was a reserve military intelligence officer in the British Army, and is now a U.S. citizen. Dr. Downes-Martin holds a Ph.D. in mathematical physics from London University.

KATHLEEN L. KIERNAN is the founder and chief executive officer of Kiernan Group Holdings, Inc. Dr. Kiernan is a 29-year veteran of Federal Law Enforcement. She previously served as the assistant director in the Office of Strategic Intelligence and Information for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF), where she was responsible for the design and implementation of an intelligence-led organizational strategy to mine and disseminate data related to explosives, firearms, and illegal tobacco diversion, the traditional and nontraditional tools of terrorism. Dr. Kiernan is the chair emeritus for the InfraGard Program, a public–private alliance with over 62,000 members representing all 18 critical infrastructures and key resources. She co-chairs the Homeland Security Intelligence Council (HSIC) for the Intelligence and National Security Alliance and is the former chair of the Division of Criminal Investigation’s Law Enforcement Working Group, an initiative designed to bridge the communities of intelligence and law enforcement. Dr. Kiernan is a senior member on the International Association of Chiefs of Police Terrorism subcommittee and serves on the Board of Regents of the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies. Dr. Kiernan served as the ATF representative to the Counterterrorism Center at the CIA during 1993 and 1995; is the Council vice president for ASIS International, with oversight of the Critical Infrastructure Working Group; and chairs the Domestic Intelligence Council for the Intelligence and National Security Alliance. Dr. Kiernan led a nationwide intelligence community project involving the active interdiction of weapons of mass destruction throughout the law enforcement and public safety communities and led a team in the Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review. Dr. Kiernan serves as a subject matter expert for the Rapid Reaction Technology Office in the OSD and other elements of the defense community. Dr. Kiernan was the recipient of the Women of Influence—Public Sector award in 2010. Dr. Kiernan completed her doctorate in education at Northern Illinois University and her master of science in strategic intelligence at the Joint Military Intelligence College in Washington, D.C. She also holds a master of arts in international transactions from George Mason University Homeland Security Policy Institute and is a faculty member at Johns

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×

Hopkins University and the Naval Postgraduate School’s Center for Homeland Defense and Security.

RONALD F. LEHMAN II is the Counselor at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Dr. Lehman is also chairman of the governing board of the International Science and Technology Center and vice chair of DoD’s Threat Reduction Advisory Committee. He recently co-chaired the study on the future of cooperative threat reduction For 16 years, he headed the Center for Global Security Research at LLNL. Dr. Lehman was director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency from 1989 to 1993, when START I, START II, the Chemical Weapons Convention, and other historic agreements were concluded. Previously, he served in DoD as Assistant Secretary for International Security Policy, in the State Department as Ambassador and U.S. Chief Negotiator on Strategic Offensive Arms (START I), and in the White House as Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. He has also served on the National Security Council staff as a senior director, in the Pentagon as deputy assistant secretary, on the senior professional staff of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, and in Vietnam commissioned in the U.S. Army. In past years, he served on the Presidential Advisory Board on Proliferation Policy, on the State Department’s International Security Advisory Board, as chair of the NATO High Level Group, on the governing board of the U.S. Institute of Peace, and as a U.S. representative to a number of United Nations disarmament and review conferences.

JOHN A. MONTGOMERY is the director of research at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), where he oversees research and development programs with expenditures of approximately $1.2 billion per year. He joined the NRL in 1968 as a research physicist in the Advanced Techniques Branch of the Electronic Warfare Division, where he conducted research on a wide range of electronic warfare (EW) topics. In 1980, he was selected to head the Off-Board Countermeasures Branch. In May 1985, he was appointed to the Senior Executive Service (SES) and was selected as superintendent of the Tactical EW Division. He has been responsible for numerous systems that have been developed/approved for operational use by the Navy and other services. He has had great impact through the application of advanced technologies to solve unusual or severe operational deficiencies noted during world crises, most recently in Afghanistan, Iraq, and for Homeland Defense and in the Pacific theater. Dr. Montgomery received the DoD Distinguished Civilian Service Award in 2001. He was recognized by the Department of the Navy Distinguished Civilian Service Award in 1999 and by the Department of the Navy Meritorious Civilian Service Award in 1986. As a member of the SES, he received the Presidential Rank Award of Distinguished Executive in 1991 and again in 2002, and the Presidential Rank Award of Meritorious Executive in 1988, 1999, and again in 2007. He also received

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×

the 1997 Dr. Arthur E. Bisson Prize for Naval Technology Achievement, awarded by the Chief of Naval Research in 1998. Further, he has received the Association of Old Crows (Electronic Defense Association) Joint Services Award in 1993. He was an NRL Edison Scholar, and is a member of the NAE and of Sigma Xi. He served as the U.S. national leader of the Technical Cooperation Program’s multinational Group on EW from 1987 to 2002, and served as its executive chairman. In 2006, Dr. Montgomery received the Laboratory Director of the Year award from the Federal Laboratory Consortium for Technology Transfer, and in 2011 he received the Roger W. Jones Award for Executive Leadership from American University’s School of Public Affairs. Dr. Montgomery received his Ph.D. in physics from the Catholic University of America.

JERROLD M. POST is professor of psychiatry, political psychology, and international affairs and director of the Political Psychology Program at George Washington University. Dr. Post has devoted his entire career to the field of political psychology. Dr. Post came to George Washington after a 21-year career with the Central Intelligence Agency, where he was the founding director of the Center for the Analysis of Personality and Political Behavior. He played the lead role in developing the “Camp David profiles” of Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat for President Jimmy Carter and initiated the U.S. government program in understanding the psychology of terrorism. In recognition of his leadership at the center, Dr. Post was awarded the Intelligence Medal of Merit in 1979. He received the Nevitt Sanford Award of the International Society of Political Psychology in 2002 for Distinguished Professional Contributions to Political Psychology. In December 1990, he testified before the House Armed Services Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee on the political personality profile of Saddam Hussein he had developed. Since 9/11, he has testified on the psychology of terrorism before the Senate, the House, and the United Nations. Dr. Post has written or edited 10 books, including The Psychological Assessment of Political Leaders, Leaders and Their Followers in a Dangerous World, and The Mind of the Terrorist, and he contributed the lead chapter “Actor-Specific Behavioral Models of Adversaries: A Key Requirement for Tailored Deterrence” in Tailored Deterrence: Influencing States and Groups of Concern. He is a frequent commentator in national and international media on such topics as the psychology of leadership, the psychology of terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, Osama bin Laden, Hugo Chavez, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Kim Jong Il, Muammar Qaddafi, and, most recently, Bashar al-Assad. Dr. Post received his baccalaureate degree magna cum laude from Yale College. After receiving his medical degree from Yale, where he was elected to Alpha Omega Alpha, the honor medical society, he received postgraduate training in psychiatry at Harvard Medical School and the National Institute of Mental Health.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×

BARRY R. SCHNEIDER is a professor of international relations at the Air War College and the retired director of the U.S. Air Force Counterproliferation Center at Maxwell Air Force Base. Dr. Schneider specializes in weapons of mass destruction counterproliferation and nonproliferation issues as well as the profiles of adversary leaders and their strategic cultures. He is the author of Future War and Counterproliferation: U.S. Military Responses to NBC Proliferation Threats (1999); the editor, of Middle East Security Issues, In the Shadow of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation (1999), and contributor to and coeditor of Avoiding the Abyss: Progress, Shortfalls and the Way Ahead in Combating WMD (2005, 2006); Know Thy Enemy: Profiles of Adversary Leaders and Their Strategic Cultures (2003), The Gathering Biological Warfare Storm (2002), Pulling Back from the Nuclear Brink: Reducing and Countering Nuclear Threats (1998), Battlefield of the Future: 21st Century Warfare Issues (1998), Missiles for the Nineties: ICBMs and Strategic Policy (1984), and Current Issues in U.S. Defense Policy (1976). He has served as a foreign affairs officer (GS-14) and public affairs officer (GS-15) at the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, as a congressional staffer on arms control and defense issues, and was a senior defense analyst at the Harris Group and the National Institute for Public Policy. He has taught at the Air War College since 1993. As a faculty member, he has taught core courses of instruction and elective courses in areas such as international rivals, homeland security issues, international flashpoints, counterproliferation issues, 21st century warfare issues, and CBW issues for the Air Force. He has taught at five other colleges and universities and has a Ph.D. in political science from Columbia University.

STEPHEN G. WALKER is emeritus professor of political science in the School of Politics and Global Studies at Arizona State University. He has published Role Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis (1987), Beliefs and Leadership in World Politics (2006), Rethinking Foreign Policy Analysis (2011), and U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes (2011), plus articles in several journals, including World Politics, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Peace Research, International Studies Quarterly, International Interactions, Foreign Policy Analysis, and Political Psychology. The National Science Foundation funded his research on the belief systems and conflict management strategies of political leaders (1982-1983). He served as a coeditor of International Studies Quarterly (1985) and as a vice-president of the International Society of Political Psychology (1997-1999) and the International Studies Association (2003-2004). He received the Distinguished Scholar Award from the Foreign Policy Section of the International Studies Association in 2003.

MICHAEL O. WHEELER is a member of the senior research staff at the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) and since 1991, a past member of the Strategic Advisory Group at USSTRATCOM. A 1966 graduate of the U.S. Air Force Academy,

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×

Dr. Wheeler retired in 1991 at the rank of Colonel. While in the Air Force, he served in tactical and strategic air commands, in Thailand during the Vietnam War, on the Air Staff, at the National Security Council and the State Department, on the faculty of the U.S. Air Force Academy, and on the Joint Staff. At retirement, he was the arms control advisor to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. In 1978 and 1979, Dr. Wheeler was a White House fellow. Following retirement from the Air Force, Dr. Wheeler joined strategic studies centers, first at System Planning Corporation, then at SAIC, and then at IDA. Dr. Wheeler also has served on Defense Science Board task forces and on the advisory committees for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the National Nuclear Security Administration. He was the executive secretary of the congressionally chartered Commission on Nuclear Expertise (aka the Chiles Commission), and from 2006 to 2008, was director of the Advanced Systems and Concepts Office at the Defense Threat Reduction Agency. He has published broadly in national security affairs. Dr. Wheeler holds a Ph.D. in philosophy from the University of Arizona.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×
Page 105
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×
Page 106
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×
Page 107
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×
Page 108
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×
Page 109
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×
Page 110
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×
Page 111
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×
Page 112
Suggested Citation:"Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members." National Research Council. 2014. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities: An Assessment of Tools, Methods, and Approaches for the 21st Century Security Environment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18622.
×
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Since the early 1960s, the U.S. strategic nuclear posture has been composed of a triad of nuclear-certified long-range bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Since the early 1970s, U.S. nuclear forces have been subject to strategic arms control agreements. The large numbers and diversified nature of the U.S. nonstrategic (tactical) nuclear forces, which cannot be ignored as part of the overall nuclear deterrent, have decreased substantially since the Cold War. While there is domestic consensus today on the need to maintain an effective deterrent, there is no consensus on precisely what that requires, especially in a changing geopolitical environment and with continued reductions in nuclear arms. This places a premium on having the best possible analytic tools, methods, and approaches for understanding how nuclear deterrence and assurance work, how they might fail, and how failure can be averted by U.S. nuclear forces.

U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities identifies the broad analytic issues and factors that must be considered in seeking nuclear deterrence of adversaries and assurance of allies in the 21st century. This report describes and assesses tools, methods - including behavioral science-based methods - and approaches for improving the understanding of how nuclear deterrence and assurance work or may fail in the 21st century and the extent to which such failures might be averted or mitigated by the proper choice of nuclear systems, technological capabilities, postures, and concepts of operation of American nuclear forces. The report recommends criteria and a framework for validating the tools, methods, and approaches and for identifying those most promising for Air Force usage.

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