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Suggested Citation:"CONTRAST OF FOUR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES IN TWELVE DIMENSIONS." National Research Council. 1980. Energy Choices in a Democratic Society: The Report of the Consumption, Location, and Occupational Patterns Resource Group, Synthesis Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council.. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18632.
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Suggested Citation:"CONTRAST OF FOUR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES IN TWELVE DIMENSIONS." National Research Council. 1980. Energy Choices in a Democratic Society: The Report of the Consumption, Location, and Occupational Patterns Resource Group, Synthesis Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council.. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18632.
×
Page 11
Suggested Citation:"CONTRAST OF FOUR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES IN TWELVE DIMENSIONS." National Research Council. 1980. Energy Choices in a Democratic Society: The Report of the Consumption, Location, and Occupational Patterns Resource Group, Synthesis Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council.. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18632.
×
Page 12
Suggested Citation:"CONTRAST OF FOUR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES IN TWELVE DIMENSIONS." National Research Council. 1980. Energy Choices in a Democratic Society: The Report of the Consumption, Location, and Occupational Patterns Resource Group, Synthesis Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council.. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18632.
×
Page 13
Suggested Citation:"CONTRAST OF FOUR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES IN TWELVE DIMENSIONS." National Research Council. 1980. Energy Choices in a Democratic Society: The Report of the Consumption, Location, and Occupational Patterns Resource Group, Synthesis Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council.. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18632.
×
Page 14
Suggested Citation:"CONTRAST OF FOUR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES IN TWELVE DIMENSIONS." National Research Council. 1980. Energy Choices in a Democratic Society: The Report of the Consumption, Location, and Occupational Patterns Resource Group, Synthesis Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council.. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18632.
×
Page 15
Suggested Citation:"CONTRAST OF FOUR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES IN TWELVE DIMENSIONS." National Research Council. 1980. Energy Choices in a Democratic Society: The Report of the Consumption, Location, and Occupational Patterns Resource Group, Synthesis Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council.. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18632.
×
Page 16
Suggested Citation:"CONTRAST OF FOUR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES IN TWELVE DIMENSIONS." National Research Council. 1980. Energy Choices in a Democratic Society: The Report of the Consumption, Location, and Occupational Patterns Resource Group, Synthesis Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council.. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18632.
×
Page 17
Suggested Citation:"CONTRAST OF FOUR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES IN TWELVE DIMENSIONS." National Research Council. 1980. Energy Choices in a Democratic Society: The Report of the Consumption, Location, and Occupational Patterns Resource Group, Synthesis Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council.. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18632.
×
Page 18
Suggested Citation:"CONTRAST OF FOUR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES IN TWELVE DIMENSIONS." National Research Council. 1980. Energy Choices in a Democratic Society: The Report of the Consumption, Location, and Occupational Patterns Resource Group, Synthesis Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council.. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18632.
×
Page 19
Suggested Citation:"CONTRAST OF FOUR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES IN TWELVE DIMENSIONS." National Research Council. 1980. Energy Choices in a Democratic Society: The Report of the Consumption, Location, and Occupational Patterns Resource Group, Synthesis Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council.. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18632.
×
Page 20
Suggested Citation:"CONTRAST OF FOUR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES IN TWELVE DIMENSIONS." National Research Council. 1980. Energy Choices in a Democratic Society: The Report of the Consumption, Location, and Occupational Patterns Resource Group, Synthesis Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council.. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18632.
×
Page 21
Suggested Citation:"CONTRAST OF FOUR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES IN TWELVE DIMENSIONS." National Research Council. 1980. Energy Choices in a Democratic Society: The Report of the Consumption, Location, and Occupational Patterns Resource Group, Synthesis Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council.. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18632.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

2 CONTRAST OF FOUR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES IN TWELVE DIMENSIONS As we noted in Chapter 1, several professional futurists and future- oriented social critics have examined the relationship between energy consumption and lifestyle. Their long-run perspectives and their empha- sis on broad cultural changes can help to expand the intellectual frame- work for making energy policy. This chapter contrasts four groups of futurists according to their predictions about 12 different dimensions of life in the future. We have termed these groups "Superindustrial" (Kahn and Bruce-Briggs, 1972; Kahn, Brown, and Martel, 1976), "Plenitude" (Armstrong and Harman, 1975; Harman, 1976), "Small Is Beautiful" (Callenbach, 1975; Goodman and Goodman, 1960; Schumacher, 1973), and "Minimum Feasible" (Illich, 1973, 1974; Raskin, 1973). From each group it is possible to learn something about the wider context and consequences of energy use. NATURAL ENVIRONMENT Superindustrial: Rapid energy growth can provide wealth, the recycling, the cleaner industrial processes, and the improved pollution control necessary for protecting the environment. Moderate pollution is inevi- table and worth the benefits of which it is a cost. Plenitude: The most energy-intensive nations are approaching a new scarcity, which includes a reduction in the resilience and waste- absorbing capacity of the natural environment. As a result, energy growth might occur more selectively and slowly. Achieving energy fru- gality and improving the natural environment could be complementary parts of an inspiring "central project" for America. 10

11 Small is Beautiful: We do not know how close the many smaller imbalances that we have induced in the natural environment have come to be more generalized, and so the greatest caution is required. A safe course is to set a global example by making a transition to a less energy-intensive lifestyle that would without question be environmentally sound if adopted by all humanity. The attainment of stable-state life systems should become the fundamental goal of politics, and even a reli- gious objective. Minimum Feasible: Calories are both biologically and socially healthful only as long as they stay within the narrow range that sepa- rates enough from too much. The United States has long since exceeded the environmentally optimal range of energy use; as a result the envi- ronment must be increasingly "protected," at the cost of increased social control, large centralized government, and technocracy. SETTLEMENT PATTERNS Superindustrial: There will be an increasing movement to urban and suburban as opposed to rural areas; urban sprawls will grow as peak densities decrease in metropolitan areas. In the twenty-first century there will be growth of "urban regions" as megalopolises overlap and merge. Plenitude: The population will be predominantly urbanized, but there will be a gradual decentralization, with new designs in transpor- tation networks, land use, and waste disposal. A larger percentage of the population will be engaged in agriculture on smaller, more labor- intensive farms. Manufacturing will be more widely dispersed to produce goods in closer proximity to raw materials and to users. Joint federal and private enterprises will experiment with small-scale future frontier cities designed to test and exhibit energy-frugal physical designs, technologies, lifestyles, and policies. Small Is Beautiful: The point at which large size detracts more than it adds to a city is probably reached when there are half a million inhabitants. Cities of this size could be the great cities of a decen- tralized agro-industrial settlement pattern, which would intentionally integrate rural and urban life to bring people close to nature, permit children to be reared in natural environments, and recycle wastes effi- ciently. Relatively self-contained regions composed of mini-cities of 9,000-10,000 people, each part of a necklace of towns linked by rapid transit, could eventually contain most of the population. Minimum Feasible: Highly decentralized settlements could exist in a social context of self-sufficient, small-scale community life, much like Gandhi's vision of a global society composed of villages, but based on greater knowledge. OCCUPATIONS Superindustrial: Energy and economic growth will continue at a high level to generate full employment. There will be decreasing employment

12 in primary economic activities (agriculture, mining, fishing, forestry) and secondary economic activities (construction, manufacturing), and more employment in tertiary services (transportation, finance, manage- ment, government) and in quaternary services (learning, communications, services to services). The trend from self-employment to a nation of employees in large, impersonal organizations will continue. Plenitude: There must be a profound shift in the very conception of what work is; in a technologically advanced society, employment exists primarily for self-development and only secondarily for production itself, which can be handled with ease. The right to full and valued partici- pation is a new fundamental political right, but the problem of "superflous" people grows more serious as society becomes more highly industrialized, substituting greater and greater energy consumption for human labor. True unemployment—among women who desire jobs, the young and elderly who are squeezed out of the job market, the despairing who no longer seek work, people who are institutionalized—ranged between 25 and 35 percent of the potential work force in 1976, and this problem will grow worse as economic growth slows. There will be a need for selective increases in labor intensity to increase employment in various primary and secondary economic activities, such as farming, fishing, forestry, and craftsmanship. There will also be a need to provide both temporary and longer term support for people who have demonstrated the ability to hold structured jobs but who want to carry out projects of manifest social value, such as study and research, providing learning opportunities for others, preserving and beautifying the environment, carrying out social experiments, assisting the handicapped, creating in the arts, and providing companionship for the aged. Such provision would open jobs for people who desire structured jobs to attain a higher standard of living and to grow in self-management ability. The need for public works projects and public service employment will continue. Small Is Beautiful: The function of work is threefold: to allow people to use and develop their abilities, to enable them to overcome self-centeredness by joining in common tasks, and to bring forth the goods and services needed for existence. Thus it is irrational to replace labor with energy at the price of failing to achieve full employ- ment for all who need it, and it is wrong to organize work so that it becomes meaningless, boring, stultifying, or nerve-racking. Energy- intensive technology has reduced the amount of time spent on production in its most elementary sense to about 3.5 percent of total social time. This should be increased to about 20 percent. Productive work should be consciously designed on psychological and moral grounds so that it can be a satisfying way of life. We must reverse the trend from self- employment to employment in impersonal, bureaucratic organizations, and we must also reduce the trend toward the separation of home and work environments and the isolation of work from education. Minimum Feasible: Employment must be based on a complete restruc- turing of industrial society away from "manipulative" institutions and tools, which by their very nature restrict to a very few the liberty to use them in an autonomous way. Occupations based on "convivial" tools and institutions will usually be part of institutions that are small

13 in scale and use little energy, because the growth of institutions and tools beyond a certain point tends to increase regimentation, dependence, and exploitation. LEISURE Superindustrial: Leisure will increase as labor productivity continues to rise, and it may result in boredom and bizarre behavior. An increas- ingly aristocratic and formal way of life may arise, with increasing tourism, ritualistic activities, arts, entertaining, sports and competi- tive games, TV watching, and quests for broadening experiences, adven- ture, excitement, and amusement. People would be freed for many activities more enjoyable and worthwhile than work. Plenitude: Better education and greater material wealth are bring- ing a shift in emphasis from a materially extravagant society, bereft of a sense of direction, toward a materially frugal, human growth society in which realizing the fullest human potential of each person is the central project of American life. Only in the context of an inspiring sense of individual and cultural purpose can leisure be increased sig- nificantly without bad psychological and social effects. Small Is Beautiful: We give lip service to the traditional virtues of hard work, but at the same time our intellectual leaders treat (other people's) work as nothing but a necessary evil to be abolished and replaced as quickly as possible by a life of automated leisure. This intellectual confusion about the relationship between leisure and work exacts a high price, of which worker motivation is just a small part. To strive for more and more leisure as an alternative to work is to misunderstand completely one of the basic truths of human experience— that work and leisure are part of the same living process and cannot be separated without destroying the joy of both. Regulation of work time and separation of work from the home environment are signs that work is not a way of life. When work is a way of life, then work is itself leisurely, playful, creative, and satisfying. Greater leisure is psy- chologically wholesome only when leisure is not an escape from unful- filling work. Minimum Feasible: The harried leisure class in super-consumption societies becomes time-poor as it becomes goods-rich. Time-intensive activities, such as friendship, reflection, meditation, and care for the aged and children, are sacrificed in favor of commodity-intensive activ- ities, which are constantly promoted by massive advertising that appeals to subconscious fears and sexual interests. Approximately 250 hunting and gathering bands have survived into the twentieth century. Many students of these cultures argue that such "primitive" peoples have more leisure time, far deeper interpersonal relationships, and a richer folk culture than people in modern civilization. (See, for example, Turnbull, 1961.) We need to deemphasize commodity-intensive activities radically and to use energy mainly to relieve the rigor of the most backbreaking and boring tasks.

14 PERSONAL POSSESSIONS Superindustrial: By 2025, the United States GNP per capita will be $20,000. The problem of poverty will be solved, and most misery will derive from the anxieties and ambiguities of wealth and luxury, not from lack of possessions. There will be a growing aristocratic taste for luxuries: the finest automobiles, country homes, exotic imported foods and products, and expensive works of art. Plenitude: Plenitude allows for extravagant expenditures to satisfy major needs, but many people may deliberately choose a life of voluntary simplicity in which competitive consumption will not be used to establish identity distinctions. The "freedom" of frugality (freedom from the need to spend time earning a large income, the need to conform to a particular fashion, the need to "keep up with the Joneses," etc.) could be used to explore largely nonmaterial dimensions of human growth such as wide learning, bodily fitness and health, full human development and child- rearing, personal honesty and responsibility in group relationships, and meditative and other practices for consciousness change and new "powers of mind." Small Is Beautiful: There is ultimately no resolution of our energy, environmental, and social problems as long as there is no idea of "enough" being good and "more than enough" being bad. To assume that more consump- tion is always better is to confuse means and ends: since consumption is only a means to human well-being, the intelligent aim should be to obtain the maximum of well-being with the minimum of consumption. The ideal of good, modest, comfortable living ought to replace the ideal of affluence. Then people would desire relatively few possessions and value functional- ity, durability, and easy repair, and yet take delight in fine tools and in simple possessions such as clothing, musical instruments, and furni- ture of handmade quality and artistry. Some possessions could be owned in common and shared by family and neighborhood groups. Minimum Feasible: In our cultural chauvinism, we take our rampant materialism so much for granted that it comes as a surprise to learn—if we will even accept the fact—that there are many cultures with a radi- cally different emphasis. The Ontong Javanese, for example, have no word in their language for personal poverty, since possessions are shared within kinship groups. Although their standard of living is simple and has remained static for centuries, it would never occur to them that they are unhappy for lack of possessions. They consider a person poor not when he lacks possessions, but when he lacks intimate friends, compatible working partners, or close family relationships. This kind of psychic poverty is now a major affliction of superconsumption societies. INSTITUTIONAL SCALE Superindustrial: The future will see a decreased dependence on family or communal institutions, high mobility with a loss of a sense of resi- dential community, and more time spent in impersonal organizations and institutions. The Federal government will continue to increase its

15 importance in relation to state and local governments; multinational corporations will continue to grow rapidly; nation states and multi- national corporations will increasingly become central social institu- tions. Plenitude: Guidance by the federal government is crucial for establishing a learning and planning society that could then rearrange the society's institutional scale. In a downward direction, moderate decentralization of settlement patterns, industry, and agriculture would create smaller and less complex living and working environments that are more comprehensible, more approachable, and more amenable to direction and control at the local level. Family and community would increase in importance. In an upward direction, new covenants and management struc- tures would provide increasing transnational coordination: a world food stockpile and distribution system, a world nuclear peace-keeping cov- enant, a world population covenant, an ocean management authority, multi- national development boards, and multinational antitrust agreements (because multinational corporations will increase in importance). Small Is Beautiful: Large-scale organization is here to stay. What we need is not either large-scale or small-scale organization but a proper mix of both. Today, however, we suffer from an almost universal ideology of gigantism accepted by the political right wing, left wing, and middle of the road. It is therefore necessary to insist on the vir- tue of smallness where it can be applied. Minimum Feasible: If we could examine the relationship between institutional scale and the satisfactoriness of life without vested interest or fear, we would see that our institutions are not expressive of people's real values. Our society has completely lost its human scale. Society should be organized on the basis of voluntary coopera- tion of relatively autonomous, self-determining, small-scale communities. But communities cannot be autonomous and self-determining if they are addicted to massive amounts of outside energy. DISPERSION OF DECISION-MAKING POWER Superindustrial: There will be continued centralization and concentra- tion of economic power in multinational corporations and of political power in the federal government; a continued trend toward interchange- ability of high-level personnel between business and government; a con- tinued trend toward increasing military capability and a larger military- industrial complex; and continued rise of elites and specialists. This is the way the world seems to be going in the long run, like it or not. The level of management required is not remarkably high: the systematic internalization of relevant external costs and the normal use of price and other market mechanisms can deal with most issues. Plentitude: A difficult period of transition to a more frugal so- ciety is anticipated, with a great danger of the establishment of an authoritarian government to maintain stability. The transition can be smoothed, and an authoritarian concentration of power checked, by a vol- untary and collective redirection of the whole society, with widespread

16 understanding of the need for new social goals and willingness to make individual decisions in accordance with the changing overall pattern of social values. In the transition period, new management structures need to be designed for effectively employing widespread citizen participation at local, regional, national, and global levels. The resulting society could have a greater dispersion of political and economic power, a revi- talized democratic process, and a new social contract for "humanistic capitalism." Multinational corporations have an important role to play in the transition, since they have a vested interest in the future well- being of the economy, have enormous economic power, have entree into national political institutions, and have the technical and financial resources to help in the process of learning and planning. Small Is Beautiful: If we really followed the principle of subsi- diary function—that a higher level should never do what a lower level can do and that the burden of proof always lies on those who want to deprive a lower level of its function—then the opposition between cen- tralizing and dispersing decision-making power would be far behind us. Society would shift dramatically toward a dispersal of political and economic power to lower levels and smaller-scale institutions. The fed- eral government, while decreasing in size and scope, would gain in authority and real effectiveness. Minimum Feasible: Centralization of political and economic power is directly related to increasing use of energy. Beyond a certain level, power corrupts: those who have access to high energy levels will use it to maintain advantage and control. Capitalist firms with access to high energy will increase rapidly in scale, becoming national and interna- tional, and will no longer be controlled by a weak or decentralized political process. Government must become large and centralized if it is to attempt to regulate high-energy economic organizations, or, as in communist countries, to take them over. True participatory democracy is possible only in a low-energy society. Minimum feasible energy use is the only strategy by which a decentralized political process can keep limits on the power of even the most motorized capitalist or bureaucrat. Although people have begun to accept ecological limits on maximum per- capita energy use, they do not yet think about the need for much lower energy limits as the necessary foundation for any truly democratic social order. Yet they are already experiencing, in their own lives, the fact that society has passed a threshold beyond which further energy inputs only act to increase feelings of individual impotence. CIVIL LIBERTIES Superindustrial: Energy and GNP growth cannot be stopped without a massive abridgment of civil liberties; continued economic health is the best guarantee of freedom. Innovative and manipulative social engineer- ing will be increasingly applied to social, political, cultural, and economic areas by elites and specialists. We must be alert for unlikely but possible civil liberties problems involving computerized records, advanced surveillance techniques, nuclear technology safeguards, and so forth.

17 Plenitude: Danger to civil liberties in the transition period can be mitigated by widespread understanding of the need for a more frugal society and rapid value change so that a materially frugal, human- growth oriented society is perceived as a highly desirable goal. Small Is Beautiful: Large-scale nuclear-power production poses grave threats to civil liberties because of the necessity for protection against the high risks of sabotage and plutonium theft. Background investigations, psychological testing, on-site personal searches, and other forms of security checks would be necessary for people who work at reactors, nuclear fuel processing plants, and other places where plutonium is stored and handled. Infiltration, mail covers, wiretapping, bugging, and other forms of covert surveillance would be necessary to keep track of terrorist groups, organized criminals, political dissidents, nuclear critics, and other groups that could be reasonably suspected of planning plutonium diversion or sabotage. When a situation of nuclear blackmail actually occurs, serious invasions of civil liberties would occur and would be accepted as necessary by reasonable people. A widely publicized nuclear threat or an actual incident of destruction would create public hysteria; history shows that constitutional rights do not fare well during such periods. In civil liberties, as in every other way, nuclear power is the antithesis of "small is beautiful." Minimum Feasible: We are so conditioned that we do not realize that we already live in a totally programmed society. We have long since passed the level of energy use and GNP at which the cost of social con- trol rises faster than the total output and becomes the major institu- tional activity within the economy. Once a critical quantum of energy is surpassed, conditioning for the abstract goals of bureaucracy becomes a stronger force than even the best legal guarantees of personal initia- tive. "Therapy" administered by educators, psychiatrists, and social workers will converge with the designs of planners, managers, and sales- men and will complement the operations of security agencies, the military, and the police. Major deviations from cultural programming will be severely punished, up to and including assassination. VULNERABILITY OR STABILITY Superindustrial: Current energy problems are of a transient socioecon- omic rather than a physical or systemic nature, and their resolution will require only one or two decades at most, and possibly only a few years. If we are reasonably prudent, we will not have to contend with serious shortages in the medium run, and prospects for the long run are extremely encouraging. It is probably nonsense to believe that the poor will be strong enough to seize much of the wealth of the rich by force. But we must be on the alert for farfetched and unlikely but potentially danger- ous events, such as ozone-layer destruction, a greenhouse effect, problems with nuclear wastes, large-scale ecological changes, million- ton oil spills, and growing guilt and alienation in the rich nations. Plenitude: Current energy problems are one aspect of a systemic crisis in industrial civilizations which will come to a head during the

18 coming generation. Its resolution will eventually require an evolu- tionary transformation of ideas, values, and institutions toward a more frugal, human-growth-oriented society. Continuation of current trends will lead to radical instability. Massive use of nuclear power would require a "nuclear priesthood" to maintain the safety of equipment and wastes in a society whose stability could be assured for thousands of years. Centralized nuclear power generation is also highly vulnerable to sabotage. Nuclear fission, therefore, cannot ultimately be toler- ated; its growth should be restricted, and present plants should redouble engineering precautions and be phased out over time. Solar technology can provide as high a level of energy as needed, with much less vulner- ability. Small Is Beautiful: The present industrial system is inherently unstable because it consumes the very basis on which it has been erected: nonrenewable energy sources, the tolerance margins of nature, and the "human substance" itself. Social stability is especially neglected. To motivate mankind for the single-minded pursuit of production and wealth, modern society systematically cultivates the human vices of greed and envy. The traditional folk wisdom and the highest religious teachings of every past civilization warn that the consequence of cultivating greed and envy is nothing less than a collapse of intelligence. Industrial society is becoming increasingly vulnerable as it hypertrophies into evolutionary dead ends of overspecialization, overcentralization and highly interlocking systems susceptible to pyramiding catastrophes. Minimum Feasible: Industrial society is nearing a crisis point. Some of its elite are now vocally promulgating a limits-to-growth ideology, which is highly undesirable because it pushes people to accept limits to energy growth and industrial output without questioning the basic structure of modern society, so that the growth-optimizing bureau- crats may maintain their power. However, it is unlikely that many people can be motivated by an abstract ideology to make major changes, and so it is unlikely that a crash can be avoided. PLURALIST OR HOMOGENEOUS SOCIETY Superindustrial: World society is rapidly becoming more homogeneous: westernized, modernized, industrialized; increasingly empirical, this- worldly, secular, humanistic, pragmatic, manipulative, explicitly ration- al, quantitative, utilitarian, contractual, epicurean, hedonistic. There has been a recent emergence, at least in the United States, of "mosaic" cultures: incorporating exotic, deviant, communal, and experimental ways of life. This so-called counterculture is a dangerous, premature, dis- torted introduction to upper-middle-class elites of some characteristics of the coming post-industrial society. The influence of the counter- culture is rapidly fading, and we are becoming, again, a nation of "squares." This is good, because squares make great taxpayers, soldiers, and citizens. They are realistic. Plenitude: We need a high level of tolerance for diversity because we are changing at a historically unprecedented pace and exploring ideas

19 for potential social transformation at every level, from individual con- sciousness to family and human settlement patterns to global institu- tions. A learning and planning society must be a pluralist society. However, it is becoming clear that some key ideas, especially an eco- logical ethic and a self-realization ethic, need to be accepted widely. Small Is Beautiful: People are right to be conservative, but the label is often captured by ideas that go back only through a few polit- ical administrations. An unexpected alliance of younger social critics who have thought of themselves as radical and older critics who have thought of themselves as true conservatives is converging on a vision of society based on the most ancient values of human scale: simplicity, nonviolence, hard work, and restraint; space, sun, and trees, and beauty; human dignity and forthright means; and basic truths of human experience implicit in the teachings of the major world religions. Diversity is of value as long as it exists within this basic framework of agreement. Minimum Feasible: A low-energy policy allows for a wide choice of lifestyles and cultures—as is evident in the variety of human history. If, on the other hand, a society chooses high energy consumption, its social relations must be dictated by technocracy and will be equally distasteful whether labeled capitalist or socialist. EQUITY Superindustrial: Both the rich and the poor will get richer, and abso- lute poverty will be abolished during the twenty-first century, but some will remain much richer than others. Americans must avoid feeling guilty about the disproportionate consumption of global resources (they are approximately 5 percent of the world's population using approximately 40 percent of global resources) because the high concentration of wealth and consumption in the rich nations offers the only realistic hope that the poor have for climbing out of poverty rapidly. Poorer countries can draw on the rich, industrialized world for markets, capital, technology, useful examples, experts, tourist wealth, and foreign aid, and for its import of unskilled labor (which gives money and training to the unskilled) and its export of industry, especially through the multi- national corporation. Plenitude: The expectations and demands of the developing nations are rising rapidly under the impact of global communications, but the gap probably cannot be closed by making poorer countries as productive, consuming, energy-intensive, and polluting as the rich nations. If the hopes of the world's poor continue to be frustrated while the rich become steadily more extravagant, prospects for world peace will dim and ter- rorism (including nuclear terrorism), clashes over resources, and wars of redistribution will become more likely. Above all, we need to change direction in the United States toward a better example of what it means to be a developed society: a materially frugal, humane society. Required is a new concept of international economics that will embody the idea that, just as individual nations establish mechanisms for redistrib- ution of wealth and power, so must international society. Something

20 like Rawls' (1971) A Theory of Justice, whose central doctrine is to mitigate the effects of poverty, may become a key bargaining principle for both the rich and the poor, since it justifies inequality within limits while demanding improvement for the poorest. We need to find more effective, multilateral ways to help nations that want rapid industriali- zation, but we also need to be open to aiding nations—China, Burma, Vietnam, and others—that choose not to develop according to the western industrial model. Small Is Beautiful: The greatest equity issue is intergenerational: we are exhausting fossil fuels, ruining soil fertility, unbalancing eco- systems, and distorting human values and institutions in the greatest energy-spending spree of all time, at the expense of future generations. Countries that begin their development processes later than others will be enormously disadvantaged by the earlier squandering of fossil fuels and the higher general level of prices. Global equity will not be served by aiding industrialization based on so-called advanced technology alone. Western-style industrialization in the poorer countries causes the formation of powerful elites living in small, ultramodern islands within a sea of poverty; destruction of the economic and social structure of the hinterland; mass migration into unmanageable urban slums; massive unemployment; destruction of the best features of traditional culture; debt; high dependence on, and control by, rich nations and multinational corporations; and many other problems. These problems can be avoided if the industrial nations aid the nonindustrial ones in developing an inter- mediate technology fitting between traditional immobility and material- istic modernization. Such a technology should seriously address the problem of general poverty and fully utilize the enthusiasm, intelligence, and labor power of everyone. It should be cheap, labor intensive, simple in its demand for skills, and appropriate for a diverse new form of agroindustrial society. It should promote advances in education, organi- zation, and discipline so that more demanding technologies can be incor- porated into general use over time. Minimum Feasible: True equity requires the least feasible energy use by the most powerful members of society. PROFESSIONALISM Superindustrial: The use of professional elites for highest-quality performance of tasks is crucial. Professions are considered an important sector of economic growth, and an increase in student enrollments in business, law, medical, and other professional schools is encouraged. There is an emphasis on high-level certification, which is accomplished by internal "guild" criteria. Specialization continues because of an information explosion and rapidly increasing social complexity, and there is more emphasis on technical skills, on know-how. Professionals work in high-technology, "great project" professional work: SST devel- opment, organ transplants, megastructure architecture, nuclear engineer- ing. Professionals concentrate in large institutions and urban areas.

21 Plenitude, Small Is Beautiful, Minimum Feasible (in order of increasing emphasis): Professionalism undergoes major modifications: There is a demystification of professional jargon; self-help and mutual care by nonprofessional laypeople becomes a core concept. An emphasis on preventive and holistic medicine decreases the need for doctors; a guaranteed annual income reduces the growth of professions that live off the ills of society. There is a broadening of professional education as an awareness of problems caused by complex bureaucracies and special- ized incompetence grows; there is, as well, more emphasis on holistic perspectives, values, knowing what to do. The emphasis on new profes- sional and paraprofessional roles, such as those of physicians' assistants and workers in self-help cooperatives, will require less formal training. Professional work will be judged increasingly by non- professional criteria: client satisfaction, social choices, and expectations defined in the political process and new and major shifts in societal values arising from outside the professions. There will be increasing emphasis on appropriate-technology, everyday-life-project professional work: preventive-medicine guidebooks, energy-efficient appliances, resource- and energy-conserving community-scale architecture. Community and family will support persons who can't "go it alone." Pro- fessionals will locate themselves according to need—they will be decentralized, with a concomitant revitalization of community, small towns, and smaller institutions.

22 REFERENCES Armstrong, J. E., and W. W. Harman. 1975. Plausibility of a Restricted Energy Growth Scenario. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford Research Institute (CSSP 3705-8). Callenbach, E. 1975. Ecotopia. Berkeley, Calif.: Banyan Tree Books. Goodman, P., and P. Goodman. 1960. Communitas. Means of Livelihood and Ways of Life. New York: Vintage Books. Harman, W. W. 1976. An Incomplete Guide to the Future. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford Alumni Association. Illich, I. 1973. Tools for Conviviality. New York: Harper and Row. Illich, I. 1974. Energy and Equity. New York: Harper and Row. Kahn, H., and B. Bruce-Briggs. 1972. Things to Come: Thinking About the '70s and '80s. New York: Macmillan. Kahn, J., W. Brown, and L. Martel. 1976. The Next 200 Years. New York: William Morrow. Raskin, M., ed. 1973. Encyclopedia of Social Reconstruction. Institute for Policy Studies, Washington, D.C. Rawls, J. 1971. A Theory of Justice. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press. Schumacher, E. F. 1973. Small Is Beautiful. New York: Harper and Row. Turnbull, C. 1961. The Forest People. London: Chatto and Windbus.

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