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6 NEW ATTITUDES TOWARD ENERGY AND RESOURCES: A HIGH-TECHNOLOGY, LOW-ENERGY SOCIETY o The scenario described in this chapter is an exercise based on a world in which a relatively high standard of living is compatible with an approximate 50-percent per-capita reduction in energy consumptionâan apparently contradictory situation. It is not intended to predict the future ; rather it explores the questions: What could life be like in the United States if, instead of increasing energy use per capita, or keeping it constant, we reduced it substantially? Would the consequen- ces of a 53-quad society be as horrible as some imagine? Would they be as beneficial as others claim? aThe realization that a 72-quad society required minimum behavioral change led us to explore what the dominant living patterns might be in a 53-quad scenario. We were further encouraged to explore the concept of a society of low energy expenditure and high efficiency since it appeared that much of the work of the CONAES study would be at the other end of the continuum. Â°To an extent that would appall scientists in disciplines accustomed to relatively closed systems, behavioral interactions consist of a vast network in which virtually everything is dynamically related to every- thing else. In the present case, location decisions, transportation modes, and consumption of other goods and services are all interrelated. As a result, changes in behavior with respect to one activity often affect other activities. For example, restrictions on energy use for heating home swimming pools might shift leisure activity away from homes and onto the highways. It was clear as we worked through our task that our resource group's function was necessarily multidimensional; it had to be a synthesis. 102
103 This chapter presupposes a fairly substantial shift in the values that guide individual choice in the marketplace. It assumes that by the year 2010 some values that were once prominent in the hierchy of values have taken on renewed importance. These values are self-reliance, thrift, individual freedom, and, perhaps paradoxically, attachment to one's community. Such a resurgence of old-fashioned virtues is seen not as an expression of nostalgia for a world we have lost but as an adapta- tion to the post-World War II world and an extrapolation into the future of present apprehensions about resources. This scenario emphasizes survival. These underlying shifts in attitudes toward energy and resources are motivated by an awareness that the affluence enjoyed by some in the United States is in striking contrast to poverty here and in most of the world and by the realization that resources are finite. Change may stem from the reflection that present patterns, including high energy use, have brought even the recipients less rather than more well being and that per-capita GNP has not been a useful measure of the welfare of a populationâas disclosed, for example, by various assessments of the quality of life. A more pragmatic reason to think about change is that it may be forced on us. Even if we genuinely prefer a society consuming 72 quads or more per year by 2010, we may not be able to get it. We found that the scenario technique was useful as an exercise in which to explore interrelations while keeping certain assumptions con- stant. The prose is an attempt to illustrate kinds of behavior that are compatible with one another. The synthetic information in the prose scenario constructions could have been stated as postulates, for example: High unemployment is found in increasing association with rising crime rates; an active consumer movement is incompatible with high unemploy- ment; an increase in self-employment is compatible with increasing self- reliance, increasing individual productivity, and increasing worker satisfaction; growing one's own food may be associated with a decrease in food waste; energy systems that are highly vulnerable to sabotage are compatible with a more active police force and a less democratic form of government. As for its utility for policy makers, the scenario technique can be misleading unless the policy makers understand the limitations of the technique. This may be true also of economic models. There is not just one way to get to an energy level of 70 or 100 quads, but many ways. Furthermore, we may ignore the observation that our vision of the future affects the present; the future then becomes in part a self-fulfilling prophecy. Scenarios are not objective. A scenario may be bound by premises that we do not recognize. It may tacitly reflect the premise of industry, or it may reflect the premises underlying various analyti- cal models. It may tacitly reflect the distribution of power in society today. It is important in this work to attend to the range of self- interest of both writers and audiences to ease the problems posited by the notion of equitable planning.
104 In this scenario, a large proportion of the public has lost its com- mitment to economic growth. America's losing battle for high-growth energy independence, public perplexity over the risks of nuclear power and the world-wide proliferation of nuclear weapons capabilities, greater environmental change resulting from economic growth and energy use, and increased awareness of our energy position relative to the rest of the worldâin spite of increasing optimism concerning the harnessing of solar energyâare only some of the factors that might lead to altered values. It is as if people had begun to believe that, although it is nice for any individual to become rich, the problems created by every- one's becoming rich b'egan to outweigh the benefits of the higher income. Thus the scenario assumes that average per-capita income as currently measured will stop growing and remain at about 1977 levels; the lot of the poor will be improved substantially through redistribution of income and wealth. A world with no economic growth as we know it may strike many readers as incredible. No doubt it requires altering our assumptions about indi- vidual and social aspirations. If present poor families are to have an opportunity to improve their position, other families must limit their use of energy and resources. In short, it is not absurd to suppose that sufficiently many Americans may come to regard less as more. There can be many opportunities for individual mobilityâup or downâeven in a no- growth society. In fact, there is fragmentary evidence of voluntary downward mobility among many college and professionally educated young people of the 1970's. If our data on career histories were as good as those on income, we would know better whether this is a significant trend or not.a Whether or not such a general value change will appear among the generation running the United States in 2010, and in their children and grandchildren, we cannot say. Many people believe that it will. There- fore, we should seriously try to imagine what the consequences of such changes might be. Life in 2010 would appear externally similar to life in the 1970's. We see buses and trains throughout the country, although in larger num- bers than in earlier years. Fewer cars are on the highways, and these are smaller, lighter, and more efficient than the cars of the 1970's. There are still large cities, although the urban congestion of pre- vious years has been greatly reduced. In all the large urban centers, city shopping, business, and cultural activities continue to flourish, but as one moves into areas surrounding the core city, one finds centers for industrial arts, social life, and services in use every day of the week. The tone of activity is changed; people move at a more leisurely pace and seem to be dressed for comfort. aSee, for example, Wall Street Journal (1976), Berton (1969), Linder (1970), and Callenbach (1972) for discussions of why downward mobility might be attractive to some.
105 DRIVING FORCES AND ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES As new economic and social concerns became national priorities in the 1970's, people developed a multitude of adaptive strategies varying from simple conservation to more complicated measures: changes in residence, occupation, home construction, automobiles, appliances, and modes of public transportation. These strategies developed out of people's con- scious efforts to deal effectively with energy and resource scarcity, increased prices, and the fact that energy forms have environmental and social risks attached to them in varying degrees. Congestion in cities and suburbs was becoming increasingly stress- ful in the late 1970's, and without more efficient cars and public transportation for short trips, the quality of life in the deteriorating environment was dropping sharply. With real shortages in nonrenewable energy resources foreseeable in the near future, people began to realize that certain needs could no longer be met by more of the same technology. Increasing attention was paid to responsible uses of space, time, intel- lect, and resources. Movement out of the cities had produced stressful situations for millions of people who found they were spending hard- earned nonworking hours fighting traffic, noise, exhaust, congestion, tension headaches, and other symptoms of the inverse relation between increasing income and satisfaction. By 2010, time-saving technology and a shorter work week have crea- ted more leisureâor more independent time for creative projects. People have filled their free time with sports (fishing, hiking, cycling), reading, CB radios, art, cinema, music, and recreational and social activities. Art centers, cultural centers, and libraries have blos- somed. More crucial perhaps has been the reevaluation of the meaning of time: it is now something to be used rather than invested. The need for private automobiles has been reduced by fleets of small service trucks performing errands and deliveries for companies and individuals. Industrial service and commercial buildings show some clustering, al- though not all aspects of business have been decentralized. Because workers want to live close to their places of work and still be close to essential services and commercial areas, the tendency has been for decentralization wherever possible. Services such as the telephone remain primarily centralized, although repair, maintenance, and instal- lation stations are more numerous and serve more localized communities. A modified view of the relation between energy and work was devel- oped with some struggle and difficulty in the 1980's. All labor is now counted as work and is valued as part of the GNP. A major effect of no growth has been an increase in self-employment, stimulated by govern- ment aid to small businesses, particularly to encourage work in areas related to primary human needs. The increased numbers of self-employed people demonstrate the desire to make work schedules more flexible. Although in the 1970's some unions were a barrier to organizational change, by 2010 unions are less concerned with wage increases and more concerned with structuring jobs to make them more personally rewarding and less depersonalizing.
106 ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY AND TASTE CHANGES In 2010, as in the 1960's and 1970's, popular consumption of high- technology items still exists. High-fidelity phonograph systems are one familiar example, but advances in micro-solid-state devices have made small calculators, computerized games for television screens, and even home video-tape equipment within the reach of those in the medium as well as high income brackets. The most important inputs to these devices are not energy or materials but knowledge and information, two factors that decline in relative cost as technology advances. The net effect of the increased use of these devices is to lower the energy impact of an average dollar of personal consumption, because the devices are not energy intensive. Advanced telecommunications equipment permits video communication to replace a sizable part of travel to work and intercity travel, especially when the purpose of the travel is to move data and information rather than to further personal contact. Bell Telephone Company information operators who prefer to work at home, for example, can do so. The rapid advances in solid-state technology, however, have an even more direct impact on energy use. Small integrated systems can be designed to control energy use in climate conditioning, injection of fuel and air into automobile engines, the balancing of air and fuel in industrial boilers, and the optimization of electrified industrial pro- cesses involving many types of motors, conveyor belts, and lifts. Computers decide where to put the heat or electricity, and when. Even in the early 1970's some companies offered on-line computer systems that would monitor and control the energy used in large buildings, and it was anticipated that by 2010 minicomputers would be controlling the heating and cooling of properly insulated rooms in new homes more effi- ciently than could a single thermostat for an entire dwelling. By 2010 we use information to reduce the need for materials, trans- portation, labor, and, more importantly, energy. We model energy use for buildings on high-speed computers, and we design systems that closely match true energy needs in the buildings themselves, rather than overdesigning systems to back up our ignorance of those needs. We use computer-coded structural analysis to pare down the material cost of building, which also reduces energy needs. We equip small trucks, mini- buses, and taxis with two-way radios that allow them to minimize the distances traveled; we use computers to control airplane movements, avoiding much of the formerly energy-wasteful circling of stacks of planes waiting for clearance over a single airport. In these and many other ways we find that technology plays an important role in maximizing the benefits we obtain from using energy and other resources. Large buildings and houses look different from the way they used to look, though many factors in their construction and operation have not changed. The heat-admitting clear glass of solar passive heating does make buildings look different from the outside. Within limits, people in offices now have the luxury of controlling their own room temperature. Rooms and offices are pleasantly cool, but not as cold as supermarkets used to be. A number of industrial and commercial buildings of the last
107 30 years have been constructed underground, increasing the energy effi- ciency of these buildings and at the same time leaving more open space in the communities. Approximately 50 percent of the population lives in single-family houses, but many owners have reduced costs in their heating and cooling systems by sharing single units between two houses. The fraction of duplexes has increased, as has that of trailers. Most houses and build- ings have solar water-heating units which resemble the old evaporative coolers of the Southwest on the roofs. In some areas, such as the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, and Northeast, these solar units are supple- mented by electric heat pumps or wind power during certain periods of the year. Travel from Seattle to San Francisco and Los Angeles, Denver to Laramie, Boston to Washington, Dallas to Atlanta, and similar distances is available on trains that are fast, silent, clean, and comfortable. These trains deposit passengers at several different stations within an urban area or at a single central location where buses, vans, taxis, and small rental cars are available for trips to the final destinations. In addition, car-trains transport people and vehicles over heavily traveled long distances. Trains and buses are also used heavily by people going to work and to recreation areas, parks, concerts, restaurants, and sporting events; for shopping, visiting friends, or just seeing the city. Most adults own a small- or medium-sized fuel-efficient (30-35 mpg) automobile, though some, depending on the neighborhood and lifestyle, own only a bicycle or light motor scooter. Some individuals and families prefer to share ownership of an automobile, which they use for longer vacation trips, visits to relatives in other areas, and special shopping expeditions. Multiple ownership of cars permits people to get away on trips but divides the operation and maintenance costs of the cars, which are sel- dom needed for local transportation. The idea of ethnic or interest-group neighborhoods has spread more widely throughout the nation than it had in 1975, and groups have clus- tered in various dispersed ways. Although some stores in each neighbor- hood try to stock a variety of food items, many people find it more interesting and pleasant to frequent the neighborhoods for special food items, or to travel to nearby experimental farms. Such excursions are viewed as recreation for adults and education for children. Experimental farming and industrial communities are dotted through- out the countryside in most areas of the country. Population in these communities ranges from 5,000 to 30,000, depending on what energy forms are used. In many of these communities local industry produces the necessary electricity by cogeneration. Many households are engaged in agriculture and cottage industry, which are part of a series of experi- ments with different energy, waste, industrial, and technical systems. These systems are developed out of national and local research and devel- opment programs are then put to practical experiment in various parts of the country. Some are regionally specific, whereas others have more widespread applicability. The success of this type of community has meant that the sifting and turnover time from inception to practical
108 application of new ideas has been greatly reduced; this has also led to a proliferation of regional arts and crafts and technological and indus- trial inventions. A SHIFT IN VALUES The people of America in 2010 are thrifty. They have become sensitive to world food needs. The world competition for food has also increased the cost of grain and animal protein to the point at which waste is no longer tolerated and is certainly not a way of displaying status. There are fewer disposable items; people have come to value an item or product and keep it for a longer period of time, avoiding the costs in time, money, and movement of constant replacement. This attitude has generated over the years a growth in the service and natural-products areasâmore cotton, linen, wood, stone, and natural-fiber construction. Synthetics are still used when clearly superior to less energy-intensive materials. The propensity to consume more and to waste an ever-growing percen- tage of what was produced was gradually seen as characteristic of a devaluation of natural and human production and of future generations. Early in American history, Benjamin Franklin had cautioned that a penny saved is a penny earned and that haste, instead of being an end in itself, makes waste. Gradually, through 200 years of growth, expansion, war, and prosperity, the cautionary voice of thrift and savings had been muffled and the sharp distinction between acquisition and acquisitive- ness blunted. Equating public welfare for some, and comfort and status for others, with quantified productivity is one way of organizing a nation. But Americans gradually learned that growth in the GNP did not necessarily lead to the good life for the nation or for the individual. By the mid- 1970' s, the concept of the GNP as a measure of the good life was already being challenged by thoughtful economists. Although the GNP continued to rise, homicide rates rose as well, with a greater incidence of anony- mous homicide than before World War II. Violent crime was on the increase, and this violence was being perpetrated by people of a younger average age than in previous periods. The suicide rate had remained relatively constant since 1900, but the rate among younger people was higher. Americans were spending less money on children's welfare (child care, medical care, education, and services) than were the other major industrialized nations. Their infant mortality rate was higher and their life expectancy lower than in many industrialized countries. Americans were also enjoying less vacation time and ate smaller amounts of fresh fruits and vegetables than did people in Western Europe. (See Tables 29-31.) Basic thingsâthe postal service, new cars, medical-care systems, insurance, or household appliancesâseemed not to work well any more. Complaint studies revealed that Americans voiced complaints about 25 percent of all goods and services they were purchasing (Best and Andreasen, 1977). It was becoming harder and harder to introduce simple, sensible changes (even if based on local consensus) in bureaucracies:
109 Table 29 International comparisons of vacation times in 1967 Country Percentage of adult population taking vacations of six days or more Sweden Great Britain Switzerland Netherlands Denmark Norway France Luxembourg Austria West Germany Belgium Ireland (Republic) Finland Spain Italy Portugal Weighted average of above countries United States 66 64 62 59 54 51 49 47 41 38 37 36 35 32 28 27 44 27.7' Estimate based on census data Source: Scitovsky (1976). Reprinted from The Joyless Economy: An Inquiry into Human Satisfaction and Consumer Dissatisfaction by TiFor Scitovsky.Copyright 1976 by Oxford University Press, Inc.Reprinted by permission.
110 Table 30 Quality of food: ^igh-quality variants as a proportion of total consumed Country Fruit (percent fresh) Vegetables (percent fresh or frozen) Butter and margarine (percent butter) Meat (percent fresh or frozen3 Italy 97.9 76.7 99.9 93.9 France 93.3 79.4 84.7 94.7 Belgium 89.6 80.8 51.9 86.6 Sweden 87.3 82.5 46.2 76.3 German Federal Republic 87.2 81.6 46.0 92.7 Netherlands 80.9 72.2 10.8 84.6 United Kingdom 72.8 72.5 67.8 90.4Â° Weighted average for above countries 87.2 77.6 68.6 90.5 United States 62.0 67.4 34.0 66.0 Excluded from this category are ground meat, fresh sausage, and sausage meat. Swedish percentages are in terms of value. p Probably an overestimate; includes ground meat, for which exact data are unavailable. Source: Scitovsky (1976). Reprinted from The Joyless Economy: An Inquiry into Human Satisfaction and Consumer Dissatisfaction by Tibor Scitovsky. Copyright 1976 by Oxford University Press, Inc. Reprinted by permission.
Ill a Table 31 Life expectancy and infant mortality in developed countries Country Life expectancy at birth Infant mortality Total Male Female per 1000 births Sweden 74.1 71.7 76.5 11.1 Netherlands 73.9 71.0 76.7 12.1 Norway 73.5 71.0 76.0 12.8 Iceland 73.5 70.8 76.2 13.2 Denmark 73.3 70.8 75.7 14.2 France 72.4 68.6 76.1 17.1 Switzerland 72.1 69.2 75.0 14.4 Canada 72.0 68.8 75.2 17.6 United Kingdom 72.0 68.8 75.1 17.5 United States (white only) 71.9 68.3 75.7 16.8 United States (total) 71.1 67.4 74.9 19.2 German Democratic Republic 71.8 69.2 75.0 18.0 Israel 71.8 70.1 73.4 19.7 Bulgaria 70.8 68.8 72.7 24.9 Ireland (Republic) 70.8 68.6 72.9 19.6 Italy 70.7 67.9 73.4 28.3 Japan 70.6 69.1 74.3 12.4 Belgium 70.6 67.7 73.6 19.9 German Federal Republic 70.6 67.6 73.6 23.3 a!971 estimate or latest available Source: Scitovsky (1976) Reprinted from The Joyless Economy : An Inquiry into Human Satisfaction and Consumer Dissatisfaction by Tibor Scitovsky. Copyright 1976 by Oxford University Press, Inc. Reprinted by Permission.
112 Social Security, welfare, universities, scientific laboratories, or credit card companies. Business, industrial managers, and technicians were admitting that they had real and sometimes insoluble operating prob- lems. All in all, citizens were feeling increasingly that more money was not equivalent to better living. People began to question the general mechanism by which planners and administrators preferred to deal with symptoms rather than underlying causes. Citizens were concerned that some forms and systems of energy production might be too vulnerable to human and organizational error, or subject to sabotage and theft, and might put us into a system of spiraling costs and diminishing returns. People began to demand serious consideration of energy sources that were relatively inexhaustible, not dangerous to human life or the larger environment, easy to locate in clustered cities, communities, or individual buildings, and with fewer social and economic costs for succeeding generations. Solar energy has thus become the favored energy source of the twenty-first century. As the world gradually became a smaller place through swifter trav- el, the utilization of land area, rainfall, and sunshine per capita began to be essential factors in American reassessment of cooperation and com- petition at all levels: at home, at work, during recreation, in the region, in the country as a whole, and within the world community. As Americans became aware of their primary problems and organized to plan effectively, they began to be aware of solutions to similar problems in other nations. It was found that in Europe, where people had been crowded in cities, plagued with pollution, and beset with high energy prices years before the United States, certain countries had developed interesting economies of space and energy. In Sweden, with roughly the same per-capita income as the United States, only 55-65 percent as much energy was used per capita as in the United States (Schipper and Lichtenberg, 1976). Swedes were able to extract higher efficiency in the large areas of transportation, materials processing and space heating. This was primarily because in the 1970's Swedish energy prices were high relative to those in the United States, but also because of different attitudes about conservation and waste that led to less ostentation in energy-consuming areas. The American second car was replaced in Sweden by efficient, extensive mass transit. Swedish cars were lighter (average weight 1100 kg versus 1700 kg in the United States), partly because the distances usually traveled were smaller than those in the United States. West Germany, too, was shown in the 1970's to be more effective in energy planning and use in a number of ways (Stanford Research Institute, 1975). Like the United States, Germany was dominated by automobile travel, but it also had a higher proportion of more energy-efficient buses, streetcars, and train cars per capita. Americans continued to move city freight by truck and by pipelines; Germans used rails. Ameri- cans had larger dwelling units with a greater percentage of space heated than did the Germans, who heated 45 percent of their living space. The Germans had a larger ratio of apartments to single-family dwellings and did not heat their bedrooms; this is still common practice in most of Europe. The German per-capita energy use for cooking was 60 percent less
113 than that in the United States, where members of many families did not eat meals together. In the commercial and industrial sector, 28 percent of the electricity in Germany was efficiently generated by self-producers rather than by large utilities; only 5 percent was self-generated in the United States at the time. Comfortable living patterns were possible within the limits of effi- ciency, conservation, and planning. In the wake of rising prices, resource scarcity, a growing sense of self-reliance, and clustered com- munities, people began to demand sensible and creative solutions. Some of the changes necessary to get from 1975 to 2010 were rela- tively simple and of a technical nature; the more difficult were intel- lectual and moral and penetrated all social and economic segments of our society, mainly through informal means. Some changes were set by statute and enforced: building codes, tax and loan incentives for conservation, pollution standards, and utility rate structures (such as penalty rates for peak load periods). But the vast majority of energy improvements in the 53-quad society of 2010 were due to the will and concern of the popu- lation and the leadership they chose to represent them. The results are summarized in Table 32. Private/Residential By 2010, several compelling factors have led individuals and families to cluster in multi-unit housing of the duplex, apartment, or modular type: high property taxes, higher energy prices, the isolation and anonymity of urban apartment living, a decreased demand in some segments of the population for privacy to the point of isolation, increased belief that an intergenerational mix is desirable in living areas, and the increased attraction of the idea of support groupsâsharing household and child- care responsibilities with people of similar tastes and habits. Repair, craft, and service shops are everywhere, as are branch libraries. All these factors fit into a more general picture of gradually decentralized work, service, and living groups. Population density is relatively low in nonurban areas, and clustered settlement patterns have left wide expanses of land open for use. Various social trends apparent by the 1970's have continued: emi- gration from cities to the suburbs, movement from suburbs to rural or suburban countryside, proliferation of communal farms, efforts to revi- talize urban centers for convenient and pleasant living, cottage-industry communities, and, unfortunately, a growing use of alcohol and other drugs. A renewed sense of pioneerism and self-reliance inspired people to begin growing their own produce, to keep small livestock, to switch to natural grains, and to substitute vegetable and grain protein for large quantities of meat; but these practical changes themselves have caused dislocation not unlike the earlier shift of population from rural to urban. In particular, employment shifts, social security programs, the changing expectations of women, and the alienation of the elderly are of grave concern.
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116 These growing trends, combined with a general education and adver- tising campaign geared to help people respond effectively to increasing energy prices, led to some fundamental changes in consumption, work, and leisure among different segments of the population, which added up to a more differentiated society and to population shifts. The regional distribution of populations has historically shifted to follow the location of business and industry (i.e., jobs). High-density metropolitan areas continued to grow until 1970, but the trend from 1970 to 1975 indicated a movement out of the metropolitan areas. The densely urban Northeast and the industrial centers of the North-Central region lost population while the West and South gained. Additionally, the move- ment from metropolitan urban areas to lower density areas continued. However, the technologies of the 1970's that made suburban life seem to have some of the advantages of rural life could not sustain that advan- tage later because of offsetting disadvantages such as cost in commuting time. In 2010, the counterurbanization movement is reflected in a dif- ferent pattern: in clusters of small communities away from major urban centers but near sources of employment and services. The differences and divergences can be overstated; some people still use private automobiles as well as energy-intensive appliances and pro- ducts frequently, but nearly everyone has made some degree of trade-off between high energy prices and the self-defined necessities of the good life. We have seen population increase from 214 million in 1975 to 280 million in 2010 and the number of households has increased from 72 mil- lion to 109 million. With intensive solar research and development incentives in the 1980's, residential demand for fuel and for electricity in general was reduced from the projected figures of 38 quads to 8.7 quads.3 A conservative estimate suggests that solar water heating will make the greatest impact; solar space heating will be next in importance, with air conditioning a distant third. Some of the saving in energy use for buildings comes from changing appliance use habits, but larger savings come from greater thermal integ- rity of structures, the greater technical efficiency of appliances, the increase in the proportion of multiple-family dwellings, and the direct use of solar energy (Pilati, 1976). One way in which the heating needs of communities are met economi- cally is through district heating, in which heat is carried from a small (80-100-MW-thermal) heating plant directly to apartments or houses. Fuel can be burned at a high temperature to generate steam to produce elec- tricity. The "waste" heat can then be used to supply the district heat- ing system with warm water, the temperature of which can be easily matched to the needs of homes and buildings. Excess electricity is channelled into a regional network when local demand is low and drawn from that same net when local demand exceeds local supply. The technical advantage of this combined system is that one unit of fuel can produce roughly 0.25 units of electricity and 0.5 units of heat; had the two Extrapolation from Table 22, in the high-energy scenario.
117 products been generated separately, in power stations and individual boilers, they would have required about 1.4 units of fuel. These district heating systems demonstrate that there is a middle ground between highly centralized systems in which heat might be prepared in a single system for hundreds of thousands of homes, and highly decen- tralized systems in which each dwelling unit has an independent heating unit. What was initially attractive about these systems was the possibil- ity that they could be scaled to fit apartment/service complexes, which were being built as early as the 1970's. The most important factor in measuring the feasibility of such a system, beyond the saving in energy costs themselves, was the density of structures and population in the immediate area. As families and businesses began to move toward concen- trated living and working communities, the necessary density was easy to achieve. Advances in pollution control made the district station adapt- able to nearly any kind of burnable fuel, which made it possible to serve regions such as the Northeast and Midwest with solar-generated hydrogen from the Southwest and ocean sites (Bockris, 1975), supplemented by locally converted garbage, agricultural products, and fossil fuels. One system available for study in the 1970's was the Swedish city of Malmo, where 915 MW of energy from electric generating plants were com- bined with a district heating system (Schipper and Lichtenberg, 1976). Of the primary input energy, only 26 percent was wasted, with 53 percent going to heat and 21 percent to electricity. Combined-cycle systems, such as gas turbines heated by the exhaust of fluidized bed combustors, offered the possibility of high efficiency for electricity generation combined with low pollution levels. The Dow Chemical Company (1975) estimated that cogeneration, using combined-cycle and diesel systems, could produce 90 percent of New Jersey's energy by 1985. In the early years of planning for major electricity, steam, and heating needs during energy scarcity, planners sought substantially high- er conversion efficiency than was possible with any existing or proposed central-station electric generating plants. Cogeneration, which offered the possibility of increasing the role of electricity without the extreme- ly high inefficiency penalties associated with central stations, has been increasingly researched and developed since those early experimental periods. Many of the alternative systems developed since the 1970'sâfuel cells, for exampleâwere found to be particularly adaptable to disper- sion. Bio-conversion offered a potential for energy from municipal wastes, agricultural residues, and terrestrial and marine energy farming. These technologies showed a high potential for producing methane gas suitable for driving cogeneration systems. The basically conservative technologists of the 1970's were followed by a more flexible group of energy specialists trained in a nondisciplinary or multidisciplinary con- text and able to innovate more freely. The private sector has lowered winter thermostats, reduced hot water temperatures, used less hot water, raised air-conditioning thermostats, turned off unnecessary lights, and installed regulators on water lines for baths and showers and nondissipative rheostats on interior lighting.
118 The temperature of each room is independently controlled; only part of each house is heated in winter; windows are controlled to accept, hold, or reject solar and other heat as appropriate; high-efficiency window air conditioners replace central units. A number of these simple changes to which people readily adapted were facilitated by restructuring utility rates, eliminating master meters in multitenant buildings, giving discounts for energy efficiency, charging peak-load prices, and promoting off-peak consumption patterns. In addition, building codes were changed to emphasize energy savings, and low-interest retrofit loans were offered for older houses. Americans in general are now using less processed food. People shop more frequently for fresh meat and produce, usually from the mobile groceries that pass through neighborhoods daily. Frequent shopping means less refrigeration, less spoilage and waste, and more sociability in the neighborhood. For other shopping, small groceries and shops in neighborhoods mean that less transportation is needed for shopping. Some luxury food shops provide delivery service in response to call-in shop- ping lists. Higher voltage electric transmission lines (240-360 V) for ranges are increasing in popularity because these lines lose less energy. All consumers have automatic pilot starters that ignite gas stoves or water heaters when needed. Dishwashers are still used, except that now the dishes dry without a heated drying cycle. For the residential sector, total energy use in 2010 is 8.6 quads. Air conditioning now accounts for 0.09 quad; space heating consumes 1.62 quads in older homes and 1.03 quads in newer homes; appliances have increased their general efficiency by 40 percent since the 1970's and now consume 0.53 quad; other miscellaneous uses account for 0.59 quad. Commercial The commercial sector has reduced its energy use since 1972 from 8.7 to 5.8 quads, or 67 percent of the previous total, even though output from the sector has expanded. Most of this change has been the result of less energy-intensive indoor climates. As a general rule, bulk goods and services are moved to people, rather than people to goods. These overall figures are an average; there are regional variations in climate, fuel resources, types of con- struction, and conservation incentives. Commerce has expanded dramatically in the overall number of commer- cial operations. There has been a gradual reversal of the pre-1975 trend as self-employed persons in this country shifted from 8 percent of the labor force in 1970 to 30 percent of the labor force in 2010. Approximately 84 million persons are self-employed in small farms, ser- vices, crafts, repair, and other businesses; about 65 percent of the employed people are affiliated with these commercial endeavors, as work- ers, distributors, and so on. As some businesses were decentralized, heat as a by-product from generators began to be recycled to supplement building (and in some cases
119 community) heating needs, especially in the colder climates; the net saving in 2010 in such systems, relative to separate production of heat, is 25 percent. This space-heating saving is increased to 30 percent in one-half of the commercial buildings through shared heating and cooling units, increased insulation, and retrofitting; sharing units also reduces external wall exposure and heat-transfer losses. Double-entry doors are popular. Locating new buildings in relation to the sun and shade orien- tation allows maximum savings from internal and structural changes; this is particularly true in the colder climates of the Rockies and the North- east, where the United States adopted the technique of optimizing outside area in volume to minimize heating needs. Total saving here was 10 per- cent for buildings thus situated (Bligh and Hamburger, 1973). Fuel- purchase permit regulations forced quicker design and construction chang- es in colder areas. There are now lower illumination standards and wider use of low- power lighting to replace much of the former incandescent lighting. Metered space and water heating in commercial buildings and coin-timer- operated water heaters and outside illumination permit a total saving of 20 percent. By using demand-at-point-of-use water heaters, as Europe and Japan have done for some time and as was done in the United States before World War II, the commercial sector is avoiding water-storage problems, pipe cool-down heat loss, and unnecessary use of hot water. New structures and use of solar energy for all water heating in some buildings, supple- mented by recycled generator heat when necessary, allow for a large saving in hot-water heating in the commercial sector as a whole. Transportation Transportation systems, stimulated by strong action of the reorganized transportation unions, are more diversified in 2010. Although there has been a shift away from heavy to light trucks, some owner-operated, for transportation with cities and towns, some heavy trucks are still used for longer hauls. Contrary to former practice, trucks are used at near capacity; they travel in both directions with goods, not just one way with an empty return trip. Electric railway systems transport much of the industrial and commercial goods between major urban centers. Only 50 percent of the energy used in 1975 is needed for intracity transport of goods and produce; the transition to diesel fuel has accounted for 20 percent of this saving. Use of energy in the entire transportation sector has been reduced from the 1972 level of 16.5 quads to 11.5 quads by 2010. Small, light, more efficient vehicles with greatly improved fuel economy and longer lasting parts have been introduced, and the per-capita number of miles traveled has been cut back. Intercity passenger transport for trips up to 1000 miles is largely by rail. This shift has cut down air passenger transportation. Airline travel, however, requires less energy than before because of improved efficiencies in aircraft payloads due to the use of hydrogen fuel
120 (Bockris, 1975) and improved scheduling and operations (fewer flights carrying less extra fuel and flying at optimum altitudes). Private automobiles are more efficient. Only about 25 percent of the short intercity trips are made in private cars, and many of these are carpool trips. The total energy consumption for distances under 10 miles is only 10 percent of what it was in 1970 (See Transportation Resource Group, 1976). Advanced engine systems, such as the Sterling and Brayton cycles, have been developed and are in mass production. High-temperature alloys permit increases in combustion temperatures and accordingly in overall conversion efficiency. Composite materials are used for body structures, simultaneously decreasing weight and increasing safety. Electric vehicles are common for short-range urban transport. Mini- bus transporters within the city, which criss-cross all parts of town, are widely used. Shifts in urban design to emphasize dense cores and high population densities along mass-transit corridors have had the di- rect effect of decreasing the vehicle miles traveled by 14 or 15 percent. In addition, there has been a reduction in the energy required to con- struct buildings and roads, supply services, and generally to fabricate and operate the transportation infrastructure. The direct impact of urban mass-transit shifts on energy use is relatively small, but the impact on the associated infrastructure is large. The urban transit system of the 1970's exhibited large variations in direct-energy requirementâfrom 2000 Btu/passenger mile in Chicago to 4500 Btu/passenger mile in Albuquerque. Load factors on all systems are now higher. Intercity high-speed transit for distances up to 500 miles is by ground. Magnetic levitation using superconducting magnets was explored by several nations, notably Japan, during the 1970's. The United States, which had dropped such small-scale programs at one time, reactivated its research to develop this technology.3 An efficiency for goods transport equivalent to that which existed in Sweden in the 1970's led to a drop of 25 percent in the United States per-capita energy use for goods trans- port. These combined savings leave consumption at 2.8 quads for automo- biles, 2.2 quads for air travel (1.5 times the activity per capita of the 1970's), and 4.2 quads for truck transport, with no growth in per-capita activity. Miscellaneous uses remain at 1.7 quads. (See 72-quad scenario in chapter 5). This results in a total energy use of 10.7 quads. Industry Industrial energy use amounts to around 27 quads, compared with 31 quads in the 1970's. Direct fuel and electricity usage has leveled off at alt is important to perform energy analyses on all technologies before implementing them. ^Saving factors and per-capita activity assumptions in Table 32 have been changed as indicated; other factors are held constant.
121 about 17,000 kWh per capita in this sector, compared with 23,000 kWh per capita in the early 1970's.a Good housekeeping measures alone now save 8 quads annually compared with 1972 energy use. Once energy conservation was accepted as a matter of policy in medium- and large-scale industry, the payoff in savings was worth the effort and initial capital investment. In the 1970's Raytheon and Lockheed demonstrated that fuel costs could be cut 23-30 percent through efficient engineering and sensible housekeeping. Dupont not only reduced fuel and energy consumption in existing plants but was among the first to promote the notion that extra initial capital outlays for fuel economy would be repaid many times over as- companies recovered their total capital and operating costs over the life cycles of their plants and equipment. Some of the earlier conservation measures that proved most effective were good housekeeping (5-6 quads less than 1972 fuel usage), steam/elec- tric cogeneration for 50 percent of industrial process steam (4 quads), fuel conversion to direct-heat applications (0.75 quad), electricity from bottom cycling in 50 percent of direct-heat applications (0.5 quad), recycling of aluminum, iron, steel, and organic waste in urban refuse (1 quad), reduced throughput at oil refineries (1 quad), and reduced field and transport losses in natural-gas systems (1 quad) (Ross and Williams, 1977). (See Table 22.) Encouraged by the Dow study (Dow Chemical, 1975), other firms dis- covered that cogeneration would provide 238 billion kWh of electricity to sell to electric utilities. Utilities in turn sold steam to industry. This saving reduced total utility investment between 1975 and 1985 by $29 billion for a national net saving of $16 billion (1975 dollars). Industries that cogenerated electricity earned a pretax rate of return of 20 percent on such investment (Dow Chemical, 1975). Developments in energy conservation since the 1970's have combined to produce substantial cumulative savings. For example, cogenerated process heat (4.8 quads) has contributed significantly to industrial conservation (National Research Council, 1979). Compared with industrial fuel and power use of 1972, the energy needs for certain industries, in quads, have remained nearly constant: aluminum (0.5 quad), glass (0.30), cement (0.5), construction (0.9), and food processing (1.5). Those for chemicals have risen from 4.7 to 5 quads (including feedstocks), those for petroleum have risen slightly from 3.3 to 3.5 quads, and those for steel have risen from 3 to 3.5 quads. Including an overall saving of 30 percent in energy intensity in other industrial processes (Berg, 1974), the total direct-energy-use figure is 25 quads. This figure excludes solar and other renewable energy sources for process heat, and electric generation losses; the solar capacity for process heat in a high-output future was estimated in the 1970's to be 48 quads. If only 25 percent of this estimated potential had been realized by 2010, a 40-quad society might have been realized. In this scenario 51 quads are from nonrenewable sources and 1 to 3 quads are from renewable sources. aThis is an extrapolation from the 1972 figures in Schipper and Lichtenberg (1976), p. 1001.
122 Methods for the direct use of coal on a small scale were revived in the 1970's. The technologies under investigation then called for massive units to burn coal for electricity generation, coal gasification, and large industrial processes. Work in England suggested that small- scale coal use was possible and environmentally acceptable. Modest-sized fluidized bed burners were found to be technologically feasible. The challenge is still to develop coal-handling equipment that is as easy to use and as clean and reliable as oil- and gas-handling systems. Agriculture Farms are generally small, ranging from 60 to 5,000 acres, although some large farms (over 5,000 acres) have expanded, and large farming machinery is still used. Social custom, law, and the lack of large-scale long- distance transport facilities keep most farms from growing inordinately large. Industrialized agricultural machinery is lighter and more efficient, and new technologies have made most heavy machinery easier to use. Mini- aturization has made it possible for both larger and smaller farms to replace heavy equipment easily and efficiently, although many smaller farms generally prefer to substitute a combination of lighter equipment and slightly more labor-intensive methods. Some energy is saved by changes in agricultural methods. Crops grown in a given area are diversified so that plowing, cultivating, and harvesting times are staggered. The same acreage is under cultivation as in the 1970's, but fewer farm machines are needed to tend the crops. The saving has been in energy used to produce the machinery, not in energy used to run it. Small garden tractors are used on smaller acre- ages, as was done for a number of years in Europe and Japan, because of the scarcity of land and high population density in those areas (Ross and Williams, 1977). All these factors combine to make farming consid- erably less fuel intensive than it used to be, even with the increase in absolute numbers of farms. More produce and livestock from local sources is being consumed than in the past; some food is shipped by air, truck, or rail to more distant locations. A good proportion of green produce from California, Florida, and other "sunshine" states is still shipped to other locations with less favorable climates, and Maine lobsters are still found in Dallas restaurants. One of the long-range by-products of decreased energy use per capita has been the ability to deal with drought conditions throughout the United States. New crop varieties and watering methods that require less water have been introduced. There are now extensive national coop- erative land banks, so that farmers are able to follow the rain to a greater degree than in the 1970's. Drought areas are put into forage or dedicated to light grazing while many farmers move temporarily to areas of heavier-than-normal rainfall. The use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides is much reduced because of symbiotic fixation of nitrogen and biological control of pests.
123 DISCUSSION Values influence all decision making, even those that seem most objective. We live in a culture, however, in which we rarely dare to admit that judgments are value-laden. It is because we place high value on ration- ality and objectivity that we find ourselves enamored of numbers and eager to locate the scientific or economically rational reasons for poli- cy. In fact, however, when uncertainties are high, most decisions are probably value judgments cloaked with rational and scientific facts (Colson, 1973). One might suppose that raising the price of energy might reduce energy consumption or that increased prices would stimulate production of more sources of energy. But adopting these options only exacerbates the problem: escalating the price of energy may reduce the consumption of energy somewhat (albeit at greater cost to some than to others) but may well increase the generation of energy from even less healthful sources. In the 53-quad scenario the actorsâconsumers and decision makersâ become aware that there are alternatives to "more is better" at any cost. This process is indeed coming about through massive information in the arts of economical crop production, heating, driving, construction, and manufacturing. Thus we are getting to the point at which the consumers and decision makers are aware of a far greater number of choices than before. It is as though blinders have been taken from our vision and many equally exciting and perhaps healthier paths of action have opened before us. As our values change, so may our criteria for decision making. It is the hierarchy of cultural values that determines in what spheres of life people apply their price-based economizing and in what others they exercise virtues such as generosity, reciprocity, and altruism (Cancian, 1966). Our diet, for example, is such a sphereâwith increasing cultural emphasis on bodily health and slimness, overeaters are in fact considered almost sick in this society: they go to dieticians and doctors to have their correct choices made clear, and to their mirrors, their friends, and Weight Watchers for social approval or disapproval. Similarly, even with our current consumption patterns, we may want to consider how the social body can best be served. Already more eco- nomical autos from abroad, home-grown foods, and the recycling of waste materials are subjects of prestige and approval among certain classes, even when they are not rewarded by cost savings. The American people are no less able to respond to a rearranged hierarchy of values than are the other peoples of the world. We might almost claim that, having been the recipients of plenty, and having lived through the most open economy in history, the American people are in a better position to evaluate their system and to make rational choices from the hierarchy of personal and national values than other peoples who are still striving for freedom and plenty. In the 1970's, the energy industry used a disproportionate amount of the country's investment capital relative to its sales and its low labor use. In this scenario we note that, as conservation policies were imple- mented, energy-industry expenditures slowed, saving capital, reducing
124 pressure on interest rates, &nd permitting more personal consumption of goods and services and investment elsewhere. Planners learned that capi- tal requirements for saving energy were often less than for building the equivalent capacity for generating energy. A study by the American Institute of Architects (1974), for example, showed that retrofitting older buildings or constructing new energy-efficient buildings could save the equivalent of 12 million barrels of oil per day by 1990, "about as much energy as the projected 1990 production capacity of any one of the prime energy systems: domestic oil, nuclear energy, domestic and import- ed natural gas, or coal." The theory and practice of a waste-free eco- nomy gradually demystified the spurious assumption that energy growth was equal to economic growth. The question remains: How quickly can such value shifts occur in society? We have on record major lifestyle changes that are results of new technology (such as the automobile and air transportation), of new religions, of crises such as drought or famine, or of unconscious value changes, such as those relating to human fertility or to drug use. It is also possible to bring about change through a new morality. In the 53-quad society, the shift in values is motivated by a variety of pres- sures, which are the ultimate consequence of terminal hypertrophy. Life has changed since 1900 and will continue to change until 2010 and beyond, no matter what our energy policy. The century has brought, among other things, credit buying; a greater cost of government; increased home ownership; a stronger labor movement; shorter work hours; increased reliance on drugs; more entertainment in the home by means of radio, phonograph, and television; increased communication by telephone and other electronic means; migration from farm to cities, and now to the suburbs and smaller cities and towns; age-segregated neighborhoods; a revolution in sexual mores; a shift from thrift to a throwaway style of living and the beginnings of a shift back again; the civil rights move- ment; decreased family size from factors both related and unrelated to fertility; and a larger proportion of college-educated people. Massive planned change is a recent phenomenon, and there is a liter- ature that attempts to isolate degrees of cultural persistence or change in the face of such plans. The direction of changeâtop-down or bottom- upâis one important factor in rate of change and may also be an indica- tor of success. The study of planned social change has shown that change implemented from the top down tends to fail when the top does not under- stand the values and conditions of the target population (Massell, 1968). The War on Poverty was such a failure. Any plans for implementing an energy policy should be cognizant of the literature on success and failure of planned change in a democratic setting. In this scenario, the instru- ment for change was a closing of the gaps among government, industry, and citizens in the planning process.
125 APPENDIX: NOTES TO TABLE 32 Saving factors as in Table 22, unless otherwise noted. 1. For existing housing stock that will not be replaced, see Chapter 4. The same figures are used here. 2. For new and replacement stock of housing, the method used to calcu- late the energy figure for space heating was as follows: Major assumption: 50 percent of housing built will be multiunit. This yields a stock of housing in 2010 that is 43 percent multiunit: Type Btus/unit Units built Btus in 1976 in 1976 (millions) efficiency (1015) Single unit 1.5 x 108 21.1 3.165 Multiunit 6 x 108 29.6 1.776 Mobile 1.0 x 108 3.17 0.317 Total 5.258 quads Multiplied by saving factor (1 - 0.72) .28 1.47 quads (without solar) Major assumption: 10 million units solar (5 million single-unit and 5 million multiunit): Single unit: 1.5 x 108 x 5 x 106 = 0.75 x 1015 o /: .ic Multiunit: 0.6 x 10 x 5 x 10 = 0.30 x 10 ^ Total 1.05 quads If solar is factored in, (5.258 - 1.05) = 4.208 x 0.28 = 1.18 quads (with solar). District heat assumption: 10 percent of single units and 25 percent of multiunits (20-percent saving). Single unit: 1.5 x 108 x 2.11 x 1Q6 = 0.3165 x 1Q1 Multiunit: 0.6 x 108 x 7.4 x 106 = 0.444 x 1015 Total 0.7605 x 0.2 = 0.152 quad saving
126 Total for new housing a 1.18 - 0.152 =1.03 quad with solar and dis- trict heating. Note: With district heating, electricity is also generated at a rate of 0.5 units per heat unit. The 0.76 quad electricity generated by district heat is subtracted from electric generation losses for the residential sector. 3. As in the 72-quad scenario, with a slightly lower saving factor because there are fewer units in new homes. 4. As in 72-quad scenario. 5. As in 72-quad scenario. 6. No per-capita growth because no per-capita GNP growth. Saving factor, 40 percent. 7. No per-capita growth because no per-capita GNP growth. Saving factor, 40 percent. 8. Assumes: Driving-age population in 2010 = 202.43 million; 0.6 vehicles per driver = 0.44 vehicles per capita, 6550 miles per vehicle (0.75% per year decrease); number of vehicles in 2010 â¢ 121.46 million; vehicle miles = 795.55 billion, fleet average mileage = 35 mpg, gallons of gasoline consumed = 22.730 x 10^ (1 gallon = 1.25 x 105 Btu). Total energy use, 2.84 quads. 9. For air, assumes increased activity per capita of 1.5, no growth, and reduced demand for business travel (with substitution of tele- communications for travel). Increase in air traffic limited to this amount. Saving factor is 50 percent, as in 72-quad scenario. 10. Increased use of trucks for short-haul deliveries offset by shift from truck to rail for longer distances. Activity per capita remains the same with different composition. Saving factor is 15 percent as in 72-quad scenario. 11. Other: mostly bus and rail. Some increase with shift from truck. Pipeline use reduced somewhat. 12. Electrical generation losses calculated as in 72-quad scenario assuming the same distribution of electrical consumption by sector as there. Slight reduction in residential sector because of cogeneration from district heating (see note 2). 13. Commercial: Slight reduction in energy intensity per square meter compared with that in Table 22, but this is offset by an increase in per-capita activity of about 10 percent to account for the slight shift from manufacturing toward service.
127 14. Industry: Although the Demand and Conservation Panel (1976) thinks that a 40-percent saving is possible, it presupposes a growth rate that will enable industries to retire old plants and equipment and replace them with more efficient ones. Since we are assuming no per-capita growth, it is unlikely that the full saving potential will be realized. Here we have reduced the saving to 30 percent. Because of the assumed increase in services, industrial consumption per capita is reduced slightly. Reduction of losses in energy pro- cessing is offset by synfuels. 15. Industrial generation losses calculated at 90 percent of the losses in the 72-quad scenario. This is an overestimate, ignoring sales of waste heat to housing clusters.
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129 Pilati, D. 1976. Building Energy Use Scenarios, 1976-2010. 1976. Paper prepared for Demand and Conservation Panel, Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council, Washington, D.C. Ross, M., and R. Williams. 1977. The Potential for Fuel Conservation. Technology Review 79(4):48-57. Schipper, L., and A. L. Lichtenberg. 1976. Efficient Energy Use and Well Being: The Swedish Example. Science 194:1001-1013. Scitovsky, T. 1976. The Joyless Economy. New York: Oxford University Press. Stanford Research Institute. 1975. Comparison of Energy Consumption between West Germany and the United States. Menlo Park, Calif.: Stanford Research Institute. Transportation Resource Group. 1976. Draft report to the Demand and Conservation Panel, Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council, Washington, D.C. Wall Street Journal. 1976. Dropouts Revisited . . . Men Who Left Work to Seek Happiness. December 27.