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2 Challenges in Food, Fiber, and Agricultural Industries Agriculture is interwoven with many segments of American life and the U.S. economy. Apart from sustaining human health and nutrition, agriculture in many ways supports commerce and trade, transportation, R&D, education, public service, private enterprise, community and family development, and outdoor recreation. For these reasons, agricultural sector prosperity will remain an impor- tant goal for national economic policy. All levels of government will still give attention to agriculture despite continued abundant production of high-quality, affordable food and fiber. U.S. industries that serve agriculture by producing, process- ing, marketing, and preparing food and fiber products for con- sumers account for about $450 billion in economic activity each year, which is about 20 percent of the gross national product. These industries provide food for 235 million Americans and ex- port about 20 percent of the food on the international market. They also meet a variety of other needs. Agricultural industries supply materials for clothes, paper, medicines, oils, and thousands of other manufactured products. The labor force underlying this remarkable economic activity includes only 2.7 million farm work- ers, about 3 percent of the nation's labor force. But agribusinesses employ another 7 million workers, which is more than two for every 13
14 EDUCATING AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS full-time farmer. Retail and service industries that sell agricultur- ally related products employ 12 million more workers, mostly in restaurants and other commercial eating facilities. An estimated 20,600 doctoral-level scientists and engineers employed in agricultural sciences and engineering positions address the scientific and technical challenges associated with the activities of these 21.7 million workers. One of the committee's tasks was to assess how the nature and scope of future agricultural science career opportunities might change. The committee surveyed many reports and assessments and consulted numerous experts in the public and private sectors. By these means and by interacting with one another, using their knowledge and experiences as a guide, the committee identified future areas of need. The committee judged that science and technology and R&D have the most important needs. Although many other fields are important, they appear able to meet foreseeable needs. Careers within agricultural and food industries are as diverse as their products and services. Ph.D. agricultural scientists and engineers focus their talents in five broad areas. First, the majority of active doctoral-level scientists, including agricultural engineers, soil scientists, plant breeders, animal scientists, entomologists, plant pathologists, veterinary scientists, and individuals trained in other applied and basic agriculture science fields, work on plant and animal production at the farm level. Problems in production agriculture include sustaining soil fertility, controlling pests, effi- ciently harvesting crops, breeding profitable new varieties of plants and species of animals, protecting animal health, and studying farm management. A second group of agricultural scientists works on sustaining scientific progress and vitality. They spend most of their careers in research and teaching at academic institutions. Their productsâ new knowledge, improved R&D tools, and trained individualsâare the raw materials of scientific and technologic advance. A third area, which is growing in importance, involves the postharvest use and marketing of agricultural and forest products. In this area, doctoral, master's, and bachelor's degree level engi- neers, systems experts, food scientists, chemists, microbiologists, and a variety of other skilled individuals work on the efficient processing of raw agricultural commodities into foods and other useful products. The capacity of U.S. agriculture to efficiently
CHALLENGES IN AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES 15 manufacture new, high-quality products from traditional agricul- tural commodities may prove increasingly significant to agricul- tural economic growth and resiliency. A fourth group of doctoral-level scientists, including agrono- mists, economists, and other individuals who have economics, le- gal, and business training, works with domestic and international agricultural markets, financial institutions, and policy. The chal- lenge for these individuals is to design more effective safeguards into production and marketing systems. These safeguards will subsequently help to assure that social needs are reliably satis- fied while industries earn profits and generate stable employment opportunities. A fifth area is the monitoring of human health, environmental quality, and social needs, particularly as affected by the products and activities of farmers and food and fiber industries. Scientists active in these areas study human nutrition, nutrient composition, bioavailability, toxicology, and other fields related to monitoring and evaluating food safety and quality. ISSUES IN AGRICULTURE Current and future issues in agriculture, which are often based on national and international commercial activity in food and fiber industries, affect career opportunities in agriculture in complex ways. Issues of growing prominence for science and technology include making economic adjustments, implementing public pol- icy, sustaining internationally competitive industries, protecting resources and environmental quality, expanding commercial op- portunities in new crops and value-added products, and under- standing consumer behavior here and abroad. U.S. agricultural scientists and engineers trained in a variety of fields find solutions to problems that in turn open up com- mercial opportunities. The income and capital generated by this activity is essential to sustain the cycle of investment and innova- tion that has kept U.S. agriculture at the forefront of global food and fiber industries, despite periodic turbulence in domestic and international commodity markets over the last several decades. Economic Stress and Adjustments Today many agricultural producers and industries are in the
16 EDUCATING AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS midst of an income and equity crisis. The most severely affected regions are those that produce surplus field crops, such as corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, and other grains. These are the crops that attracted unprecedented capital investment, drawing new land and yield-enhancing inputs into agricultural production during the export boom of the 1970s. The subsequent decline in foreign demand for agricultural goods relative to available sup- plies in the early 1980s overextended many producers. Crop prices declined 30 percent or more below peak levels in 1980 to 1981; agricultural land values dropped an average of 30 to 50 percent. Surpluses grew quickly. The situation created the need for long- standing federal agricultural policies and programs to expand to support farm income and reduce production, while moving com- modities into global markets at competitive prices. The first step in dealing with production adjustment and in- come problems is to understand how past programs have often worked at cross-purposes. One example is paying farmers to idle land while providing strong economic incentives for higher yields and bringing new lands into cultivation. Another is sacrificing international markets by artificially supporting commodity prices above world market levels. A consensus is developing among U.S. citizens regarding the need for agricultural policies that allow this country to compete while protecting soil and water resources and encouraging cost- saving management practices. Because of the economy and envi- ronmental concerns, policy changes may also be needed to help some farmers diversify their operations (see also OTA, 1986). Problems stemming from low crop prices and surplus produc- tion capacity are not restricted to the farm. Other institutions affected by reduced business volume or underutilized capital in- vestments are rural, regional, and agricultural banks; small busi- nesses in rural towns; local government services, such as schools and clinics; and agricultural input, transport, processing, and marketing industries. Public Policy Government support of agricultural income and rural eco- nomic development will be augmented by greater attention to food safety and quality and resource conservation needs. Deci- sions about changing research and agricultural program priorities
CHALLENGES IN AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES 17 will necessitate some redirection of public funds, which raises dif- ficult institutional and analytic challenges. Agricultural economists and policy specialists will be called upon to explain the impact of programs and technologies on com- petitiveness, resources, and farm income. They will have to iden- tify efficient ways to achieve public policy objectives. While ad- justments are frequently resisted and entail some costs, they often create new opportunities. Benefits for individuals and communi- ties will follow as agriculture moves toward a profitable production and technology base. Economic policies will also change in other countries. The ability of most countries to produce some surplus foodstuffs sur- prised many analysts. Global trends toward self-sufficiency in food production, particularly the two major human food grains, rice and wheat, will have to be reckoned with as more and more countries compete for shrinking export markets. Research designed to solve these problems will benefit the global agricultural community. International Competition To regain profitability for U.S. agriculture and use productive capacity more fully, economic and geopolitical factors shaping international trade flows must be understood. Tight commodity markets and growing international compe- tition have raised the issue of whether the United States should allow or encourage the transfer of its technology overseas, where it can be used to produce crops that compete with American ex- ports. It is doubtful that agricultural technology transfer could be prevented, even it if were desirable to do so. There are many channels of communication between individuals and groups in the United States and other countries. Moreover, restrictions on the international exchange of technology would impede the exchange of genetic resources and capacity of U.S. farmers to use advanced biotechnologies. Some technologies are difficult to transfer, how- ever, particularly those that require management skill and under- standing in biological needs and interactions. Technology transfer has often been important to rural eco- nomic development within less-developed countries (LDCs). Such development often helps to open up markets for U.S. agricultural exports as per capita incomes rise.
18 EDUCATING AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS Natural Resource Protection The natural resources of the United Statesâland, water, and forestsâhave contributed greatly to the success of American agri- culture. But there is continuing concern about agriculture's im- pact on the environment and the extent to which agricultural resources in a highly productive state are protected. On the positive side, however, technologic advances provide solutions to problems concerning farming practices and land-use patterns. For example, scientists have learned a great deal about how to sustain soil fertility while controlling soil erosion. In the last few years, scientists have also studied the flow of water off farm fields and into lakes, streams, and aquifers. Progress is being made in understanding the relationships between land use and tillage practices and water quality. Researchers are discovering more ways to use the tools of biotechnology to exploit genetic potential to overcome persistent plant and animal pest and disease problems. Scientists have used biotechnology to develop a vaccine for foot- and-mouth disease in cattle; treatment of calf scours, an enteric disease; and plants resistant to herbicides, which could increase the number of crops that can be protected against competing weeds. Resource-conserving crops and marketable products may soon be developed, expanding the range of profitable opportunities. (For further discussion, see OTA, 1986; NRC, 1987.) Farmers also protect natural resources, although sometimes indirectly. For example, some farmers are using fewer chemical pesticides and fertilizers, primarily to cut cash production costs, which is helpful in reducing agricultural sources of water pollu- tion. (See NRC, 1986a.) Farmers that improve livestock waste management by diverting feedlot runoff, for example, help to pro- tect nearby water sources and meet plant nutrient needs. Land retirement programs can be put into effect in regions of the country that have surpluses and soil erosion or water pollution. In spite of progress in the last decade, there is a need to bet- ter understand how farm programs and policies and the economy influence farm management and resource conservation decision- making. A stronger commitment of public programs and policies to agricultural resource management systems and practices would affect employment opportunities. These systems require more in- formation to be developed, monitored, and transferred on farms than traditional farming methods. Management plans that meet conservation goals must be developed according to the needs of
CHALLENGES IN AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES 19 individual farmers and fields. To develop plans, technology and farm management specialists will require an understanding of a variety of biological sciences and the characteristics of hydrogen- logical cycles, for example. Job opportunities for scientists and engineers include careers in soil science, hydrology, land-use planning, park and range man- agement, ecology, and molecular biology. Social scientists with expertise in management, technology transfer, and policy analysis will also be in demand. Commercial Opportunities The profitability of agriculture will be improved as scientists discover new, economical uses for established crops. Other R&D targets are commercial markets for new crops. For example, the plants guayule and jojoba may become staple crops in the South- west by creating industries to process rubber and oil products, respectively. New products for use in manufacturing, medicine, and the chemical industry may become practical as biotechnology discovers new production processes. Animal production, includ- ing commercial aquaculture, offers many opportunities in research, management, training, and profitability. To support research on new crops and products, corporations will need individuals to research, develop, test, and market phar- maceuticals and biologicals, feed formulations, raw and processed foods, forest by-products, and genetically engineered products. Commercial employment opportunities will not only be avail- able to basic or applied researchers, but also to individuals with skills in management, finance, economics, international affairs, policymaking, and public affairs, among other disciplines and spe- cialties. Opportunities for consultants and information manage- ment experts are also growing. As production processes involving biotechnology are discovered, positions for chemical and other bio- engineering specialists will increase. New industries may have to be created from the ground upâa task dependent on individuals working in multidisciplinary teams. Consumer Behavior Consumers demand high-quality, reasonably priced food. Nu- tritional qualities, safety, appearance, selection, convenience, and
20 EDUCATING AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS ease of preparation are important to consumers. Market opportunities must be monitored and pursued in dif- ferent ways around the world because consumer tastes and prefer- ences change at different rates and in a variety of ways, depending on culture, eating habits, and standards of living. The results of future studies of demographics, local markets, lifestyles, diet and health, the distribution of income and consumer spending be- havior, and the effects of public policies will help the agricultural sector anticipate change in consumer behavior.
