NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
This project was supported by funds from the Bureau of the Census, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the International Trade Administration, all of the U.S. Department of Commerce; the Customs Service of the U.S. Department of the Treasury; and a research grant from the Chase Manhattan Bank.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
National Research Council (U.S.). Panel on Foreign Trade Statistics.
Behind the numbers : U.S. trade in the world economy / Panel on Foreign Trade Statistics, Committee on National Statistics, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council ; Anne Y. Kester, editor.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Exports—United States. 2. United States—Commerce. 3. United States—Foreign economic relations. I. Kester, Annie Y.
This book is printed on acid-free recycled stock that is made from 70% de-inked fiber of which 10% is postconsumer waste.
Copyright © 1992 by the National Academy of Sciences
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Printed in the United States of America
PANEL ON FOREIGN TRADE STATISTICS
ROBERT E. BALDWIN (Chair),
Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison
ANDREW F. BRIMMER,
Brimmer & Co., Inc., Washington, D.C.
IBM Corporation, Armonk, New York
RICHARD N. COOPER,
Department of Economics, Harvard University
DAVID T. DEVLIN,
Citibank, New York City
A. BLANTON GODFREY,
Juran Institute, Wilton, Connecticut
JERRY A. HAUSMAN,
Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
HELEN B. JUNZ,
International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.
ROBERT Z. LAWRENCE,
John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
EDWARD E. LEAMER,
Anderson Graduate School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles
S. JAMES PRESS,
Department of Statistics, University of California, Riverside
W. ALLEN SPIVEY,
Department of Statistics, Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Michigan
MARTIN B. WILK,
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada
ANNE Y. KESTER, Study Director
EDWIN D. GOLDFIELD, Consultant
THOMAS B. JABINE, Consultant
SAMUEL PIZER, Consultant
JACOB DEUTCH, Consultant
ELLEN TENENBAUM, Consultant
LINDA INGRAM, Consultant
FLORENCE E. WOLF, Administrative Assistant
MELISSA MARSDEN, Project Assistant
MICHELE CONRAD, Project Assistant
HELEN LOPEZ, Office Assistant
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS
BURTON H. SINGER (Chair),
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University
NORMAN M. BRADBURN,
National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago
RONALD S. BROOKMEYER,
Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins University
MARTIN H. DAVID,
Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin
ANGUS S. DEATON,
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
Department of Mathematics, University of Southern California
ROBERT M. HAUSER,
Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin
Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
WILLIAM A. MORRILL,
Mathtech, Inc., Princeton, New Jersey
DOROTHY P. RICE,
Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, School of Nursing, University of California, San Francisco
JOHN E. ROLPH,
The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California
DONALD B. RUBIN,
Department of Statistics, Harvard University
KENNETH W. WACHTER,
Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley
MIRON L. STRAF, Director
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
This report covers many major issues and areas concerning the information needed to guide public and private decision making in the increasingly internationalized U.S. economy. In undertaking the study, the panel benefited greatly from the technical assistance provided by the capable staffs of the sponsoring agencies, as well as from the help of numerous experts from other federal agencies, international organizations, businesses, trade associations, and private researchers.
For their invaluable assistance, we are particularly indebted to Charles Waite and Don Adams of the Census Bureau; Samuel Banks of the Customs Service; Allan Young, Carol Carson, Steven Landefeld, and Obie Whichard of the Bureau of Economic Analysis; William Sullivan of the International Trade Administration; Lois Stekler of the staff of the Federal Reserve Board; Fuku Kimura of the State University of New York at Stonybrook; Mark Watson of Northwestern University; and Ruth Judson at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
We are also grateful to many others: From the Census Bureau: Bruce Walter, Gerald E. Kotwas, Walter Neece, Francis McCormick, John Govoni, Kathy Puzzilla, Charles Wood, and Michael Farrell. From the Customs Service: Roland Bernier. From the Bureau of Economic Analysis: Betty Barker, Anthony J. Dilullo, Ralph Kozlow, Howard Murad, David Belli, Russell Scholl, and Paula Young. From the International Trade Administration: Victor Bailey, Lester Davis, Bruce Guthrie, Douglas Cleveland, and Roger Palmeroy. From
the Office of Business Analysis of the Department of Commerce: John E. Cremeans.
From the Federal Reserve Board: Peter Hooper III, Guy V.G. Stevens, Albert M. Teplin, and Kathryn Morisse. From the Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Akbar Akhtar and Beth Schwartzberg.
From other government agencies: Bernard Ascher and Geza Feketekuty, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative; Paul Bugg, Office of Management and Budget; Henry Kelly, Office of Technology Assessment; Ashby McCown, U.S. Department of the Treasury; Katrina Reut and Brian MacDonald, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Eugene A. Rosengarden, U.S. International Trade Commission.
From the International Monetary Fund: Jack J. Bame, Mahinder Gill, Keith McAlister, and John McLenoghan. From the World Bank: Michael Finger. From the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Andrew Wyckoff.
Researchers, business executives, and others: Walter Joelson, General Electric; Walter Lederer, private consultant; Clopper Almon, University of Maryland; William Cline, Institute for International Economics; Joseph Duncan, Dun & Bradstreet; Jacob Ryten, Statistics Canada; Nicholas Sargen, Salomon Brothers, Inc.; Robert Mellman, J.P. Morgan; F. Helmut Brammen, the National Trade Facilitation Council; Brian Horrigan, WEFA Group; Alvis Pauga, Foreign Trade Data Users Group; Margaret McCarthy, University of Maryland; and staff of the Committee on International Trade and Foreign Relations, National Governors ' Association.
Many data users and data filers participated in our canvass of their views of the existing statistical systems on U.S. international transactions. To each of them, we extend our gratitude for their insightful comments.
The completion of the study would not have been possible without the dedication and expertise of the panel's staff. Under the capable leadership of our study director, Anne Kester, our consultants worked effectively to gather information, analyze it, and develop options. We thank Thomas Jabine for his analyses of the possible uses of sampling in the collection of data and of users' data needs, Samuel Pizer for his reviews of existing data on international services transactions and capital flows, Jacob Deutch for his work on quality control and the need for increased automation, and Ellen Tenenbaum for her assessments of the comparability of trade and domestic economic data.
We could not have undertaken this effort had it not been for Miron Straf, director of the Committee on National Statistics, and Edwin Goldfield, senior associate on the committee staff, who
were instrumental in the formation of the panel, sought funding for its work, and freely shared their many insights about the federal statistical systems. We are also grateful to Eugenia Grohman, associate director for reports of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, for her able and efficient guidance throughout the editing and production of this report. We thank Melissa Marsden and Helen Lopez for their patience in typing various drafts of the report and their capable assistance on a host of administrative matters.
Our special appreciation goes to Anne Kester for her outstanding efforts in directing the study. Anne recruited our consultants. She worked untiringly with panel members to thoroughly investigate the issues and enthusiastically coordinate our work with numerous experts in the United States and abroad. Anne also made significant substantive contributions to the study.
Finally, over the past 2 years, the panel members provided their untiring services despite their busy schedules. I am especially grateful to them for their efforts and achievements on behalf of the study.
Robert E. Baldwin, Chair
Panel on Foreign Trade Statistics