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NEEDS AND RESOURCES In the United States, as in other economically advanced countries, the number of scientists and engineers has been growing rapidly. As Figure I shows, the proportion of scientists and engineers in the total work force doubled between 1940 and 1960. It now stands at more than two per cent. All together, about 1.7 million persons in the United States are now engaged in scientific and engineering work, including teaching, that requires a college degree or its equivalent. Of this total, about 950 thousand are engineers, 500 thousand are scientists, and the remaining 250 thousand are teachers of science or mathematics at the secondary- school level. FIGURE I NUMBERS OF SCIENTISTS, ENGINEERS, AND SECONDARY-SCHOOL TEACHERS OF SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS (1963 ESTIMATE) TOTAL 1.7 MILLION 950 THOUSAND 500 THOUSAND 2.8% OF TOTAL WORK FORCE -2% -1% 1940 1950 1960 1970 EST. 250 THOUSAND SCIENTISTS ENGINEERS SECONDARY-SCHOOL TEACHERS Based on "Profiles of Manpower in Science and Technology," National Science Foundation, 63-23.
A country's needs for scientists and engineers are reflected in the distribution of these persons among the several national purposes they serve. Figure II shows the deployment that has resulted from past priorities and goals.* Today, between two and three out of every ten scientists and engineers in the United States are engaged in work in- tended to strengthen the nation's security and to improve its position in space exploration. Approximately four out of every ten devote their efforts to commercial and industrial pursuits in the private sector of the economy, and about two out of every ten work in education. Clearly the demand for the services of scientists and engineers has been gen- erated by domestic needs, but in substantial degree it has also been related to the international responsibilities of the United States. FIGURE II SCIENTISTS, ENGINEERS, AND SECONDARY-SCHOOL TEACHERS OF SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS, DISTRIBUTED BY OBJECTIVES (1963 ESTIMATE) COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL 4 OUT OF 10 NATIONAL SECURITY 2 TO 3 OUT OF 10 EDUCATION 2 OUT OF 10 ALL OTHER 1 OUT OF 10 DEFENSE SPACE ATOMIC ENERGY OVERSEAS SECONDARY-SCHOOL TEACHERS OF SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS TEACHING RESEARCH NOTE: THE PROPORTION OF ALL U.S. SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS WORKING TOWARD NATIONAL SECURITY OBJECTIVES IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE CORRE- SPONDING PROPORTION OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS. * Estimate based on William D. Nordhaus and Wilbert Annis, "Scientists and Engineers by End Use," 1963. Since the government does not pro- vide scientific and engineering manpower data by end-use or purpose, this study was sponsored by the Committee to provide order-of-magnitude comparisons.
During the past decade, such events as the swift growth of military capabilities not only have increased the demand for scientific and engi- neering manpower, but also have brought about profound changes in the way in which this manpower is deployed. In the years ahead, inter- national developments will continue to influence the utilization of scientific and engineering manpower. The Soviet Union already has as many scientists and engineers as the United Statesâeach has about one fourth of the total world supplyâand the number it adds each year is roughly twice the number added in this country. These facts suggest a continued growth in the Soviet Union's capacity to launch and sustain massive technological undertakings which the United States may feel impelled to anticipate with corresponding new programs of its own that could require tens of thousands of scientists and engineers. The scientific and technological capabilities of western Europe also must be considered. Although there are somewhat fewer scientists and engineers in western Europe than in the United States, their num- ber has been increasing more rapidly than in this country. Western Europe has already become a formidable commercial competitor of the United States. It is reasonable to assume that Western Europe's com- petitive strength, bolstered by the rapid progress it has been making in industrial technology, will continue to grow, and the United States, if it wishes to hold its ground, may have to invest more scientific and engineering talent in industrial research and development. Finally, the United States may well find it advisable to invest more of its scientific and technological resources in the economic development of Asia, Africa, and Latin America, as well as to continue to expand its private investment in the more advanced countries. The United States has for some years devoted a substantial teaching effort in science and engineering to the education of students from abroad. These foreign students have numbered approximately 30 thou- sand a year in recent years. Over the past decade, approximately five per cent of the United States' supply of new scientists and engineers have been of foreign origin. Many of these, of course, were trained in the United States and remained after completing their education. The interests of other countries and of the United States will both be served if the United States continues to be a training center for large numbers of foreign scientists and engineers. Domestic needs for the contributions of scientific and engineering manpower have been eloquently expressed in recent years, and require no detailed reiteration here. Broadly viewed, these needs include im- proving the environment in which we live, work, and find recreation; increasing the national standard of living; maintaining a healthy rate of economic growth; and, of prime importance to our future, ensuring
first-rate education in science, both for the scientist and engineer and for others.* To sum up: In estimating future needs for scientists and engineers, we must first of all take into account the increased demand that will be generated by the normal growth of the economy. We must also allow for the hopeful possibility that ways will be found to channel more scientific and engineering talent into education, urban redevelopment, and other fields where the need is critical. In the military sphere, the demand for scientists and engineers, whether to develop instruments of destruction or systems for their control, seems likely to remain high. There may be a growing demand for scientists and engineers in research and development aimed at strengthening our competitive position in world trade. Finally, we must allow for greater use of scientific and engineering talent in programs of economic development, and eventually for its deployment in international undertakings aimed at controlling the physical environment of the world, and at improving social condi- tions. The scientific and engineering manpower resources available to meet the needs of the nation have important characteristics that must be borne in mind in discussing utilization. Scientists and engineers are divided among many specialties, perform a number of different func- tions, are distributed unevenly throughout the main sectors of the economy, and are heavily dependent on federal financing for support. The figures that follow illustrate these characteristics. Figure III shows how the nation's scientists and engineers are divided among fields of work. No major science specialty includes more than 7.5 per cent of the total number of scientists and no engineering specialty more than 15 per cent of all engineers. Figure III also shows the percentages of personnel working in each category who hold doctoral degrees. Each category includes dozens of sub-specialties. At any one time, of course, certain kinds of scientists and engineers may be in short supply while others are relatively plentiful. * For one set of projections prepared for the Committee, which take account of growth and national goals, see "Requirements for Scientific and Engineering Manpower in the 1970's." Colm and Lecht, National Planning Association, January 1964. pp. 71-82 of this volume. 6
FIGURE III SCIENTISTS, ENGINEERS, AND SECONDARY-SCHOOL TEACHERS OF SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS, DISTRIBUTED BY FIELD OF WORK (1963 ESTIMATE) WITH DOCTORAL DEGREES CHEMISTS PHYSICISTS MATHEMATICIANS OTHER PHYSICAL SCIENTISTS LIFE SCIENTISTS PSYCHOLOGISTS SOCIAL SCIENTISTS SECONDARY-SCHOOL TEACHERS AERONAUTICAL AND ASTRONAUTICAL ENGINEERS CHEMICAL ENGINEERS CIVIL ENGINEERS ELECTRICAL ENGINEERS INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERS MECHANICAL ENGINEERS OTHER ENGINEERS 2% 20% I TOTAL SECONDARY-SCHOOL TEACHERS 14.7% TOTAL ENGINEERS 56.1% Based on "Profiles of Manpower in Science and Technology," National Science Foundation, 63-23.
While this report deals with engineers and scientists of all kinds, it is particularly concerned with those upon whom the quality of scien- tific and engineering efforts most directly dependsâthat is, those who teach, those who manage, and those engaged in research and develop- ment. As Figure IV shows, this group includes two out of three scien- tists, and two out of five engineers. FIGURE IV SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS, DISTRIBUTED BY FUNCTION PERFORMED (1963 ESTIMATE) SCIENTISTS ENGINEERS RESEARCH RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPMENT ADMINISTRATION, MANAGEMENT TEACHING IN COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES PRODUCTION, OPERATIONS OTHER (SECONDARY-SCHOOL TEACHERS NOT INCLUDED) Based on "Profiles of Manpower in Science and Technology," National Science Foundation, 63-23. ADMINISTRATION, MANAGEMENT TEACHING IN COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES PRODUCTION, OPERATIONS OTHER
57% FIGURE V -â_ SCIENTISTS, ENGINEERS, AND SECONDARY-SCHOOL TEACHERS OF SCIENCE AND MATHEMATICS, DISTRIBUTED BY SECTOR OF WORK IN WHICH EMPLOYED (1963 ESTIMATE) 50%- = SCIENTISTS = ENGINEERS I SECONDARY-SCHOOL TEACHERS 25%- ===== 15% 12% 11% 5% INDUSTRY GOVERNMENT COLLEGES SECONDARY- OTHER AND SCHOOL UNIVERSITIES TEACHERS Based on "Profiles of Manpower in Science and Technology," National Science Foundation, 63-23. The Committee has focused its attention upon three kinds of in- stitutions: the federal government, private industrial corporations, and colleges and universities. Together, as shown in Figure V, they employ the overwhelming majority of all scientists and engineers. Over half of all scientists and engineers are employed in industry. Colleges and uni- versities account for nearly 12 per cent, and, together with the second- ary schools, employ one fourth of the total. The government directly employs over one ninth of the total.
The distribution of scientists and engineers among these institu- tions does not, however, reveal two of the most important factors bear- ing on their deployment and utilization. One of these factors is the massive influence of the federal government. The government not only employs a large number of scientists and engineers, but also finances the work of a very substantial fraction of all those who do research and development work in private industry or at colleges and universities. Indeed, as Figure VI shows, the federal government now supports about three fifths of the nation's scientists and engineers engaged in research and development. The other important factor that statistics alone do not fully reveal is the government's deep involvement in science and technology, creat- ing a complex relationship involving the government, the universities, and private industry, which is both cooperative and competitive. To illustrate: the government helps to finance the graduate education of scientists and engineers, and then competes for their services with the universities that have educated them. Private corporations compete with the government in recruiting talent to perform research and de- velopment and other work that the government is paying for. At the same time, the efficiency with which scientific and engineering man- power is utilized in industry is determined in large part by the way in which the interests of the government and its industrial suppliers are contractually adjusted. Improvement in the way we utilize scientists and engineers, and in the quality of our achievements in science and technology, can best be attained by close cooperation among all the three sectors. The re- sponsibilities of the federal government, industry, and the universities for improved utilization of scientists and engineers are dealt with in turn in the next three chapters. 10
FIGURE VI SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS WORKING IN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT EXTENT OF FEDERAL SUPPORT (1963 ESTIMATE) EMPLOYED BY INDUSTRY 75% I EMPLOYED BY GOVERNMENT 11% EMPLOYED BY COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES 12% OTHER 2% 60% FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FUNDS NOTE: 80% OF THE FEDERAL FUNDS FOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ARE DISBURSED BY TWO AGENCIES-DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE AND NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION. Based on "Profiles of Manpower in Science and Technology," National Science Foundation, 63-23. and Reviews of Data on Research and Development, National Science Foundation #41, September 1963.
