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1974 SUMMER STUDY ON PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS OF SPACE SYSTEMS STUD? DIRECTOR Jack M. Campbell President, Federation of Rocky Mountain States Denver, Colorado DEPUTY DIRECTOR Willis Hawkins Senior Technical Advisor Lockheed Aircraft Corporation Burbank, California Panel on Weather and Climate George S. Benton (Chairman) Vice President Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, Maryland Panel on Uses of Communications Peter C. Goldmark (Chairman) President Goldmark Communications Corporation Stamford, Connecticut Panel on Land Use Planning John R. Crow ley (Chairman) Chairman, Colorado Land Use Commission Englewood, Colorado Panel on Agriculture, Forest & Range A. R. Baldwin (Chairman) Vice President Cargill, Incorporated Minneapolis, Minnesota Panel on Inland Water Resources Leonard T. Crook (Chairman) Executive Director Great Lakes Basin Commission Ann Arbor, Michigan Panel on Retractable Resources William B. Heroy, Jr. (Chairman) Vice President and Treasurer Southern Methodist University Dallas, Texas Panel on Environmental Quality Leon W. Weinberger (Chairman) President, Environmental Quality Systems, Incorporated Rockville, Maryland Panel on Marine and Maritime Uses James J. Reynolds (Chairman) President, American Institute of Merchant Shipping Washington, D.C. Panel on Materials Processing in Space Winfield W. Tyler (Chairman) Vice President for Corporate Research Xerox Corporation Rochester, New York Panel on Institutional Arrangements Harold B. Finger (Chairman) Manager, Center for Energy Systems The General Electric Company Washington, D.C. Panel on Costs and Benefits Albert Kelley (Chairman) Dean, School of Management Boston College Boston, Massachusetts Panel on Space Transportation Walter F. Burke (Chairman) Consultant Corona del Mar, California Panel on Information Processing & Services S. Benedict Levin (Chairman) Executive Vice President Earth Satellite Corporation Washington, D.C. Panel on Technology Robert K. Roney (Chairman) Vice President, Space § Communications Hughes Aircraft Company Los Angeles, California (July
KJO. £. I PRACTICAL APPLICAT I ONS OF SPACE SYSTEMS Supporting Paper 1 WEATHER AND CLIMATE The Report of the PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE SPACE APPLICATIONS BOARD of the ASSEMBLY OF ENGINEERING NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL NAS-NAE Published by NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES NOV 2 1 1975 WASHINGTON, D.C. 1975 LIBRARY
This is a report of work under Contract No. NSR 09-0l2-l06 between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Academy of Sciences. Available from Space Applications Board National Research Council 2l0l Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 204l8
PREFACE In November l973, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) asked the National Academy of Engineering* to conduct a summer study of future applications of space systems, with particular emphasis on practical approaches, taking into consideration socioeconomic benefits. NASA asked that the study also consider how these applications would influence or be influenced by the Space Shuttle System, the principal space transportation system of the l980's. In December l973, the Academy agreed to perform the study and assigned the task to the Space Applications Board (SAB). In the summers of l967 and l968, the National Academy of Sciences had convened a group of eminent scientists and engineers to determine what research and development was necessary to permit the exploitation of useful applications of earth-oriented satellites. The SAB concluded that since the NAS study, operational weather and communications satellites and the successful first year of use of the experimental Earth Resources Technology Satellite had demon- strated conclusively a technological capability that could form a foundation for expanding the useful applications of space-derived information and services, and that it was now necessary to obtain, from a broad cross-section of potential users, new ideas and needs that might guide the development of future space systems for practical applications. After discussions with NASA and other interested federal agencies, it was agreed that a major aim of the "summer study" should be to involve, and to attempt to understand the needs of, resource managers and other decision- makers who had as yet only considered space systems as experimental rather than as useful elements of major day-to-day operational information and service systems. Under the general direction of the SAB, then, a representative group of users and potential users conducted an intensive two-week study to define user needs that might be met by information or services derived from earth- orbiting satellites. This work was done in July l974 at Snowmass, Colorado. For the study, nine user-oriented panels were formed, comprised of present or potential public and private users, including businessmen, state and local government officials, resource managers, and other decision-makers. A number *Effective July l, l974, the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering reorganized the National Research Council into eight assemblies and commissions. All National Academy of Engineering program units, including the SAB, became the Assembly of Engineering. iii
of scientists and technologists also participated, functioning essentially as expert consultants. The assignment made to the panels included reviewing progress in space applications since the NAS study of l968* and defining user needs potentially capable of being met by space-system applications. User specialists, drawn from federal, state, and local governments and from business and industry, were impaneled in the following fields: Panel l: Weather and Climate Panel 2: Uses of Communications Panel 3: Land Use Planning Panel 4: Agriculture, Forest, and Range Panel 5: Inland Water Resources Panel 6: Extractable Resources Panel 7: Environmental Quality Panel 8: Marine and Maritime Uses Panel 9: Materials Processing in Space In addition, to study the socioeconomic benefits, the influence of tech- nology, and the interface with space transportation systems, the following panels (termed interactive panels) were convened: Panel l0: Institutional Arrangements Panel ll: Costs and Benefits Panel l2: Space Transportation Panel l3: Information Services and Information Processing Panel l4: Technology As a basis for their deliberations, the latter groups used needs expressed by the user panels. A substantial amount of interaction with the user panels was designed into the study plan and was found to be both desirable and neces- sary. The major part of the study was accomplished by the panels. The function of the SAB was to review the work of the panels, to evaluate their findings, and to derive from their work an integrated set of major conclusions and recom- mendations. The Board's findings, which include certain significant recommen- dations from the panel reports, as well as more general ones arrived at by considering the work of the study as a whole, are contained in a report pre- pared by the Board.** It should be emphasized that the study was not designed to make detailed assessments of all of the factors which should be considered in establishing priorities. In some cases, for example, options other than space systems for accomplishing the same objectives may need to be assessed; requirements for *National Research Council. Useful Applications of Earth-Oriented Satellites, Report of the Central Review Committee. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., l969. **Space Applications Board, National Research Council. Practical Applications of Space Systems. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., l975. iv
institutional or organizational support may need to be appraised; multiple uses of systems may need to be evaluated to achieve the most efficient and economic returns. In some cases, analyses of costs and benefits will be needed. In this connection, specific cost-benefit studies were not conducted as a part of the two-week study. Recommendations for certain such analyses, however, appear in the Board's report, together with recommendations designed to provide an improved basis upon which to make cost-benefit assessments. In sum, the study was designed to provide an opportunity for knowledgeable and experienced users, expert in their fields, to express their needs for information or services which might (or might not) be met by space systems, and to relate the present and potential capabilities of space systems to their needsâ The study did not attempt to examine in detail the scientific, techni- cal, or economic bases for the needs expressed by the users. The SAB was impressed by the quality of the panels' work and has asked that their reports be made available as supporting documents for the Board's report. While the Board is in general accord with the panel reports, it does not necessarily endorse them in every detail. The conclusions and recommendations of this panel report should be con- sidered within the context of the report prepared by the Space Applications Board. The views presented in the panel report represent the general consensus of the panel. Some individual members of the panel may not agree with every conclusion or recommendation contained in the report.
PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE George S. Benton (Chairman) Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, Maryland Howard C. Barnes American Electric Power Service Corporation New York, New York Tim Barnett Scripps Institution of Oceanography La Jolla, California Ray E. Jensen National Weather Service Auburn, Alabama Wayne E. McGovern National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Rockville, Maryland Stanley Ruttenberg University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado vn
ACKNOWLEDGMENT The Panel wishes to express its sincere appreciation to Harry Press, Chief of Meteorology Program Office of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, who made himself available for consultation and who contributed significantly to the work of the Panel by providing background information and briefings as needed. Vlll
CONTENTS INTRODUCTION l SPACE APPLICATIONS TO METEOROLOGY 5 Present-Weather Display 5 Short-Range Forecasts . . 6 Synoptic Forecasts 7 Long-Range Weather and Climate Prediction 7 APPLICATIONS TO FIELDS OTHER THAN METEOROLOGY 9 HIGH-PRIORITY NEEDS WITHIN PRESENT SYSTEMS u Improved Sounding of the Atmosphere n Improved Geostationary Satellites l2 Operational Radiation-Budget Observations 13 Monitoring Oceans l3 Monitoring Atmospheric Constituents, Particulate Loading, and Aerosols 14 Accurate Determination of Occurrence and Intensity of Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Water Content of Snow l4 Improved Determination and Evaluation of Accuracy of Earth Observations from Space l4 DATA MANAGEMENT l7 USE OF SPACE SHUTTLE AND SPACELAB 19 FUTURE APPLICATIONS 2l ix
CONTENTS (Continued) SUMMARY 23 Present-Weather Display 23 Short-Range Forecasts (2 to l2 Hours) 24 Synoptic Forecasts (l to 7 Days) 24 Long-Range Weather and Climate Prediction 24 Other Uses of Weather Data 24 Interface with Space Transportation System 25 TABLE Table I Range of Meteorological Scales 5
