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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1994. Role of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Global Change: A Plan for Action. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18688.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1994. Role of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Global Change: A Plan for Action. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18688.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1994. Role of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Global Change: A Plan for Action. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18688.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1994. Role of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Global Change: A Plan for Action. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18688.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1994. Role of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Global Change: A Plan for Action. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18688.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1994. Role of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Global Change: A Plan for Action. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18688.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1994. Role of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Global Change: A Plan for Action. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18688.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1994. Role of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Global Change: A Plan for Action. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18688.
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REFERENCE COPT LIBRAE USE OMf THE ROLE OF TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS IN GLOBAL CHANGE A Plan for Action Board on Global Change Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council PROPERTY OF NRC LIBRARY NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1994

/•/, , ' ' i NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures ap- • proved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, ^ National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. /7"?C/ The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self- perpetuating society of distin- guished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of sci- ence and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern- ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1 964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also spon- sors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy mat- ters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. This work was sponsored by the National Science Foundation, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States Geological Survey, United States Department of Agriculture, Office of Naval Research, and Department of Energy under Contract No. OCE 9313563. A limited number of copies of this report are available from Board on Global Change (HA 596) National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418-0001 Copyright 1994 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Cover art by Terry Parmelee. Parmelee, a Washington, DC artist, considers herself stylistically influ- enced by the Washington Color School of abstraction which was in its heyday when she was earning her MFA at American University in 1967. Using color to express emotion along with symbol and geometric form, Parmelee has created a poetic and imaginative version of nature. Parmelee is repre- sented by the Jane Haslem Gallery in Washington, DC. Printed in the United States of America

BOARD ON GLOBAL CHANGE RALPH J. CICERONE, University of California, Irvine, Chairman HAROLD A. MOONEY, Stanford University, Past Chairman ERIC J. BARRON, Pennsylvania State University ROBERT E. DICKINSON, University of Arizona PETER S. EAGLESON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology PRISCILLA C. GREW, Minnesota Geological Survey RICHARD E. HALLGREN, American Meteorological Society ROBERT W. KATES, Brown University ESTELLA LEOPOLD, University of Washington BERRIEN S. MOORE III, University of New Hampshire ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, Ohio State University VEERABHADRAN RAMANATHAN, University of California, San Diego VERNON W. RUTTAN, University of Minnesota PIERS J. SELLERS, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center GUNTER WELLER, University of Alaska Ex-Officio Members (U.S. Members, International Council for Scientific Unions, Scientific Committee for the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program) JOHN A. EDDY, CffiSIN JAMES J. MCCARTHY, Harvard University JERRY M. MELILLO, The Ecosystem Center S. ICHTIAQUE RASOOL, University of Paris VI (U.S. Members, Joint Scientific Committee for the World Climate Research Program) D. JAMES BAKER, JR., Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc. JERRY D. MAHLMAN, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (U.S. Member, International Steering Committee for the Human Dimensions of Global Change Program) HAROLD K. JACOBSON, University of Michigan Staff JOHN S. PERRY, Staff Director RUTH DeFRIES, Senior Program Officer CLAUDETTE BAYLOR-FLEMING, Administrative Assistant Hi

COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES M. GORDON WOLMAN, The Johns Hopkins University, Chairman PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America PETER S. EAGLESON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology EDWARD A. FRIEMAN, Scripps Institution of Oceanography HELEN M. INGRAM, University of Arizona W. BARCLAY KAMB, California Institute of Technology GENE E. LIKENS, The New York Botanical Garden SYUKURO MANABE, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory JACK E. OLIVER, Cornell University FRANK L. PARKER, Vanderbilt/Clemson University DUNCAN T. PATTEN, Arizona State University RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston MAXINE L. SAVITZ, Garrett Ceramic Components LARRY L. SMARR, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign STEVEN M. STANLEY, The Johns Hopkins University WARREN WASHINGTON, National Center for Atmospheric Research EDITH BROWN WEISS, Georgetown University Law Center IRVIN L. WHITE, Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories Staff STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director LORRAINE W. WOLF, Associate Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer BARBARA B. SINGLETARY, Administrative Associate ROBIN LEWIS, Senior Project Assistant iv

Acknowledgments The board is deeply indebted to the following scientists for their contribu- tions to this report: F. STUART CHAPIN III, University of California, Chairman STEVE CARPENTER, University of Wisconsin-Madison JERRY FRANKLIN, University of Washington ROBERT J. GOODLAND, The World Bank LISA GRAUMLICH, University of Arizona BRUCE KIMBALL, U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory JERRY M. MELILLO, The Ecosystems Center SCOTT NIXON, University of Rhode Island ELDOR PAUL, Michigan State University ROBERT PETERS, Conservation International NORMAN J. ROSENBERG, Battelle Pacific Northwest WILLIAM SCHLESINGER, Duke University PETER VITOUSEK, Stanford University G. BRUCE WIERSMA, University of Maine

Preface In a series of reports over the past decade, the National Research Council (NRC) has outlined a broad scientific agenda to advance our understanding of the processes of global change. These studies stimulated and nourished the evolution of international efforts centered on the International Geosphere-Biosphere Pro- gram (IGBP) and the World Climate Research Program, and in our own country supported the development of the U.S. Global Change Research Program. As these programs move rapidly from concept to implementation, the NRC Board on Global Change has continued to critically assess the scientific needs. Is the scien- tific agenda truly comprehensive? Are the priorities appropriate in terms of needs for understanding scientific opportunities, and technological possibilities? Are there gaps that should be and could be filled? Can recommendations be usefully sharpened and focused? To address such questions, our board organized extended ad hoc consulta- tions in a few selected problem areas with informal groups of experts from the scientific community. The domain of terrestrial ecosystems is clearly central to any discussion of global changes induced by or important to humanity. We live on the land and draw most of our sustenance from its natural and managed living ecosystems. The behavior of these systems in a changing world is thus of more than academic interest. Moreover, these systems powerfully influence the fluxes of energy, moisture, and substance between the land, ocean, and atmosphere that govern our global environment. It is, therefore, appropriate that terrestrial ecosys- tems have figured strongly in the NRC's studies and that a core project of the IGBP is devoted to global change and terrestrial ecosystems. But what specific research initiatives could be proposed to improve understanding of the role of vtt

Viii PREFACE terrestrial ecosystems in global change? In August 1990, our previous chairman, Harold A. Mooney, requested the assistance of a talented group of active research scientists led by F. Stuart Chapin III to address these issues. At that time, "Eco- logical Systems and Dynamics" had been identified as one of the seven major science elements of the U.S. Global Change Research Program. However, spe- cific research plans were lacking. The group was asked to assist in developing a brief report identifying those aspects of research on terrestrial ecosystems that contribute to an understanding of global change, together with scientific ap- proaches to developing research plans. The indicated scope was broad, encom- passing as examples both managed and unmanaged ecosystems, the role of biodiversity in ecosystem function, the terrestrial links between biogeochemistry and hydrology, and the responses of the terrestrial system to global change. The group was also asked to consider the U.S. response to the development of an IGBP core project on global change and terrestrial ecosystems. We are very grateful to Professor Chapin and his collaborators for working with us to develop a set of specific foci for research in this central problem area. We also thank the following individuals who provided critical reviews of earlier drafts of this report: M.C. Chapin, J. Goudriaan, S.E. Hobbie, D. Hooper, A. Janetos, D. Jensen, P. Kotanen, PA. Matson, J.E. Miller, H.A. Mooney, M. Power, W.T. Sommers, and B.H. Walker. We are also appreciative of the work of John S. Perry, Ruth S. DeFries, and Claudette Baylor-Fleming of the NRC staff in sup- porting this effort. Ralph J. Cicerone, Chairman Board on Global Change

Contents SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDED RESEARCH 1 1 INTRODUCTION 5 2 ROLE OF THE TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHERE IN THE EARTH SYSTEM 9 Recent Advances, 9 Remaining Uncertainties, 11 3 RESEARCH PROGRAM 13 Interactive Effects of CO2, Climate, and Biogeochemistry, 13 Controls over Trace-Gas Flux to the Atmosphere, 17 Future Distribution and Structure of Ecosystems, 21 Global Change and Ecological Complexity, 26 Biotic Effects on Water and Energy Balance, 30 Ecological Controls over Land-Water Interaction, 33 REFERENCES 39 APPENDIX: Current International and National Programs 45 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 49 ix

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