Evaluation of the Implementation of WFIRST/AFTA in the Context of New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (2014)

EVALUATION OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF

WFIRST/AFTA in the Context of
New Worlds, New Horizons in
Astronomy and Astrophysics

Committee on an Assessment of the Astrophysics Focused Telescope
Assets (AFTA) Mission Concepts

Space Studies Board

Board on Physics and Astronomy

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                              OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

Support for this project was provided by Contract NNH14CK38D between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-30129-9
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-30129-7

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OTHER RECENT REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD
AND THE BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY

Opportunities for High-Power, High-Frequency Transmitters to Advance Ionospheric/Thermospheric Research: Report of a Workshop (Space Studies Board [SSB], 2014)

Adapting to a Changing World—Challenges and Opportunities in Undergraduate Physics Education (Board on Physics and Astronomy [BPA], 2013)

An Assessment of the Prospects for Inertial Fusion Energy (BPA, 2013)

Assessment of Inertial Confinement Fusion Targets (BPA, 2013)

High Magnetic Field Science and Its Application in the United States: Current Status and Future Directions (BPA, 2013)

Landsat and Beyond: Sustaining and Enhancing the Nation’s Land Imaging Program (SSB, 2013)

Lessons Learned in Decadal Planning in Space Science: Summary of a Workshop (SSB, 2013)

Nuclear Physics: Exploring the Heart of Matter (BPA, 2013)

Review of the Draft 2014 Science Mission Directorate Science Plan (SSB, 2013)

Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society (SSB, 2013)

Assessment of a Plan for U.S. Participation in Euclid (BPA with SSB, 2012)

Assessment of Planetary Protection Requirements for Spacecraft Missions to Icy Solar System Bodies (SSB, 2012)

Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Midterm Assessment of NASA’s Implementation of the Decadal Survey (SSB, 2012)

The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate: A Workshop Report (SSB, 2012)

NASA’s Strategic Direction and the Need for a National Consensus (Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, 2012)

Report of the Panel on Implementing Recommendations from the New Worlds, New Horizons Decadal Survey (BPA and SSB, 2012)

Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation (SSB, 2012)

2020 Vision: An Overview of New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (BPA with SSB, 2011)

Assessment of Impediments to Interagency Collaboration on Space and Earth Science Missions (SSB, 2011)

An Assessment of the Science Proposed for the Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory (DUSEL) (BPA, 2011)

Implementing Recommendations from New Worlds, New Horizons Decadal Survey (BPA with SSB, 2011)

Panel Reports—New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (BPA and SSB, 2011)

Recapturing a Future for Space Exploration: Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era (SSB and the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board, 2011)

Sharing the Adventure with the Public—The Value and Excitement of “Grand Questions” of Space Science and Exploration: Summary of a Workshop (SSB, 2011)

Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022 (SSB, 2011)

COMMITTEE ON AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ASTROPHYSICS
FOCUSED TELESCOPE ASSETS (AFTA) MISSION CONCEPTS

FIONA A. HARRISON, California Institute of Technology, Chair

MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona, Vice Chair

ROGER D. BLANDFORD, Stanford University

ERIK L. BURGESS, Burgess Consulting, Inc.

JOHN E. CARLSTROM, University of Chicago

MEGAN DONAHUE, Michigan State University

TIMOTHY M. HECKMAN, Johns Hopkins University

JAMES P. LLOYD, Cornell University

MIGUEL MORALES, University of Washington

EDWARD L. WRIGHT, University of California, Los Angeles

A. THOMAS YOUNG, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired)

Staff

DAVID LANG, Senior Program Officer, Board on Physics and Astronomy, Study Director

LEWIS B. GROSWALD, Associate Program Officer, Space Studies Board

ANDREA M. REBHOLZ, Program Associate, Space Studies Board

DIONNA WILLIAMS, Program Associate, Space Studies Board

MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Space Studies Board

JAMES C. LANCASTER, Director, Board on Physics and Astronomy

SPACE STUDIES BOARD

CHARLES F. KENNEL, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Chair

JOHN KLINEBERG, Space Systems/Loral (retired), Vice Chair

MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University

JAMES ANDERSON, Harvard University

JAMES BAGIAN, University of Michigan

JOSEPH FULLER, JR., Futron Corporation

THOMAS R. GAVIN, California Institute of Technology

NEIL GEHRELS, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

SARAH GIBSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research

HEIDI B. HAMMEL, AURA

RODERICK HEELIS, University of Texas, Dallas

JOSEPH S. HEZIR, EOP Group, Inc.

WESLEY T. HUNTRESS, Carnegie Institution of Washington

ANTHONY C. JANETOS, University of Maryland

JOAN JOHNSON-FREESE, U.S. Naval War College

JOHN F. MUSTARD, Brown University

DAVA J. NEWMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

ROBERT T. PAPPALARDO, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology

SAUL PERLMUTTER, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona

DAVID N. SPERGEL, Princeton University

MEENAKSHI WADHWA, Arizona State University

CLIFFORD M. WILL, University of Florida

THOMAS H. ZURBUCHEN, University of Michigan

MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director

CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator

TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations

CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate

MEG A. KNEMEYER, Financial Officer

CHRISTINA O. SHIPMAN, Financial Officer

SANDRA WILSON, Senior Financial Assistant

BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY

PHILIP H. BUCKSBAUM, Stanford University, Chair

DEBRA M. ELMEGREEN, Vassar College, Vice Chair

CHARLES L. BENNETT, Johns Hopkins University

RICCARDO BETTI, University of Rochester

TODD DITMIRE, University of Texas, Austin

NATHANIEL J. FISCH, Princeton University

PAUL FLEURY, Yale University

MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University

BARBARA V. JACAK, Stony Brook University

MARK B. KETCHEN, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center

MONICA OLVERA de la CRUZ, Northwestern University

PAUL SCHECHTER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

BORIS SHRAIMAN, Kavli Institute of Theoretical Physics

MICHAEL S. WITHERELL, University of California, Santa Barbara

JAMES LANCASTER, Director

DONALD C. SHAPERO, Senior Scholar

DAVID LANG, Program Officer

LINDA WALKER, Program Coordinator

BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or rec-

ommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Martha Haynes, Cornell University. Appointed by the NRC, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

1 THE WFIRST/AFTA SCIENCE PROGRAM

Dark Energy and Beyond

Standard Candles—Type Ia Supernovae

Standard Rulers—Baryon Acoustic Oscillations

Growth—Redshift Space Distortions

Growth—Cosmic Shear and Galaxy Cluster Mass Calibration

WFIRST, LSST and Euclid—A Powerful Complementary Program for Cosmology in the Next Decade

Exoplanets

Surveying the Evolution of the Universe

The WFIRST/AFTA Observing Program

Addition of the Coronagraph—Scientific Rationale and Consistency with Technology Development Goals of NWNH

2 WFIRST IN THE PROGRAMMATIC CONTEXT

Cost and Cost-Risk Assessment

Addition of the Coronagraph

Mission Operations Complexity

3 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

APPENDIXES

A Statement of Task

B Meeting Agenda

C Committee and Staff Biographical Information

D Acronyms