EVALUATION OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF
WFIRST/AFTA in the Context of
New Worlds, New Horizons in
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Committee on an Assessment of the Astrophysics Focused Telescope
Assets (AFTA) Mission Concepts
Space Studies Board
Board on Physics and Astronomy
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by Contract NNH14CK38D between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the agency that provided support for the project.
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Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
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OTHER RECENT REPORTS OF THE SPACE STUDIES BOARD
AND THE BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY
Opportunities for High-Power, High-Frequency Transmitters to Advance Ionospheric/Thermospheric Research: Report of a Workshop (Space Studies Board [SSB], 2014)
Adapting to a Changing World—Challenges and Opportunities in Undergraduate Physics Education (Board on Physics and Astronomy [BPA], 2013)
An Assessment of the Prospects for Inertial Fusion Energy (BPA, 2013)
Assessment of Inertial Confinement Fusion Targets (BPA, 2013)
High Magnetic Field Science and Its Application in the United States: Current Status and Future Directions (BPA, 2013)
Landsat and Beyond: Sustaining and Enhancing the Nation’s Land Imaging Program (SSB, 2013)
Lessons Learned in Decadal Planning in Space Science: Summary of a Workshop (SSB, 2013)
Nuclear Physics: Exploring the Heart of Matter (BPA, 2013)
Review of the Draft 2014 Science Mission Directorate Science Plan (SSB, 2013)
Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society (SSB, 2013)
Assessment of a Plan for U.S. Participation in Euclid (BPA with SSB, 2012)
Assessment of Planetary Protection Requirements for Spacecraft Missions to Icy Solar System Bodies (SSB, 2012)
Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Midterm Assessment of NASA’s Implementation of the Decadal Survey (SSB, 2012)
The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth’s Climate: A Workshop Report (SSB, 2012)
NASA’s Strategic Direction and the Need for a National Consensus (Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, 2012)
Report of the Panel on Implementing Recommendations from the New Worlds, New Horizons Decadal Survey (BPA and SSB, 2012)
Technical Evaluation of the NASA Model for Cancer Risk to Astronauts Due to Space Radiation (SSB, 2012)
2020 Vision: An Overview of New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (BPA with SSB, 2011)
Assessment of Impediments to Interagency Collaboration on Space and Earth Science Missions (SSB, 2011)
An Assessment of the Science Proposed for the Deep Underground Science and Engineering Laboratory (DUSEL) (BPA, 2011)
Implementing Recommendations from New Worlds, New Horizons Decadal Survey (BPA with SSB, 2011)
Panel Reports—New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics (BPA and SSB, 2011)
Recapturing a Future for Space Exploration: Life and Physical Sciences Research for a New Era (SSB and the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board, 2011)
Sharing the Adventure with the Public—The Value and Excitement of “Grand Questions” of Space Science and Exploration: Summary of a Workshop (SSB, 2011)
Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022 (SSB, 2011)
Limited copies of SSB reports are available free of charge from | Limited copies of BPA reports are available free of charge from |
Space Studies Board National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-3477/ssb@nas.edu www.nationalacademies.org/ssb/ssb.html |
Board on Physics and Astronomy National Research Council The Keck Center of the National Academies 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001 (202) 334-3520/bpa@nas.edu www.nationalacademies.org/bpa/bpa.html |
COMMITTEE ON AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ASTROPHYSICS
FOCUSED TELESCOPE ASSETS (AFTA) MISSION CONCEPTS
FIONA A. HARRISON, California Institute of Technology, Chair
MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona, Vice Chair
ROGER D. BLANDFORD, Stanford University
ERIK L. BURGESS, Burgess Consulting, Inc.
JOHN E. CARLSTROM, University of Chicago
MEGAN DONAHUE, Michigan State University
TIMOTHY M. HECKMAN, Johns Hopkins University
JAMES P. LLOYD, Cornell University
MIGUEL MORALES, University of Washington
EDWARD L. WRIGHT, University of California, Los Angeles
A. THOMAS YOUNG, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired)
Staff
DAVID LANG, Senior Program Officer, Board on Physics and Astronomy, Study Director
LEWIS B. GROSWALD, Associate Program Officer, Space Studies Board
ANDREA M. REBHOLZ, Program Associate, Space Studies Board
DIONNA WILLIAMS, Program Associate, Space Studies Board
MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director, Space Studies Board
JAMES C. LANCASTER, Director, Board on Physics and Astronomy
SPACE STUDIES BOARD
CHARLES F. KENNEL, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Chair
JOHN KLINEBERG, Space Systems/Loral (retired), Vice Chair
MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University
JAMES ANDERSON, Harvard University
JAMES BAGIAN, University of Michigan
JOSEPH FULLER, JR., Futron Corporation
THOMAS R. GAVIN, California Institute of Technology
NEIL GEHRELS, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
SARAH GIBSON, National Center for Atmospheric Research
HEIDI B. HAMMEL, AURA
RODERICK HEELIS, University of Texas, Dallas
JOSEPH S. HEZIR, EOP Group, Inc.
WESLEY T. HUNTRESS, Carnegie Institution of Washington
ANTHONY C. JANETOS, University of Maryland
JOAN JOHNSON-FREESE, U.S. Naval War College
JOHN F. MUSTARD, Brown University
DAVA J. NEWMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
ROBERT T. PAPPALARDO, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
SAUL PERLMUTTER, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona
DAVID N. SPERGEL, Princeton University
MEENAKSHI WADHWA, Arizona State University
CLIFFORD M. WILL, University of Florida
THOMAS H. ZURBUCHEN, University of Michigan
MICHAEL H. MOLONEY, Director
CARMELA J. CHAMBERLAIN, Administrative Coordinator
TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations
CELESTE A. NAYLOR, Information Management Associate
MEG A. KNEMEYER, Financial Officer
CHRISTINA O. SHIPMAN, Financial Officer
SANDRA WILSON, Senior Financial Assistant
BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY
PHILIP H. BUCKSBAUM, Stanford University, Chair
DEBRA M. ELMEGREEN, Vassar College, Vice Chair
CHARLES L. BENNETT, Johns Hopkins University
RICCARDO BETTI, University of Rochester
TODD DITMIRE, University of Texas, Austin
NATHANIEL J. FISCH, Princeton University
PAUL FLEURY, Yale University
MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University
BARBARA V. JACAK, Stony Brook University
MARK B. KETCHEN, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center
MONICA OLVERA de la CRUZ, Northwestern University
PAUL SCHECHTER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
BORIS SHRAIMAN, Kavli Institute of Theoretical Physics
MICHAEL S. WITHERELL, University of California, Santa Barbara
JAMES LANCASTER, Director
DONALD C. SHAPERO, Senior Scholar
DAVID LANG, Program Officer
LINDA WALKER, Program Coordinator
BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Charles Bennett, Johns Hopkins University,
Joshua Frieman, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory,
Andrew Gould, The Ohio State University,
Joseph Hezir, EOP Group, Inc.,
Lynne Hillenbrand, California Institute of Technology,
Robert Kirshner, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics,
Adam Riess, Johns Hopkins University,
John Trauger, Jet Propulsion Laboratory,
Scott Tremaine, Institute for Advanced Study, and
Linda Williams, Wyle Aerospace Group.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or rec-
ommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Martha Haynes, Cornell University. Appointed by the NRC, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Contents
1 THE WFIRST/AFTA SCIENCE PROGRAM
Standard Candles—Type Ia Supernovae
Standard Rulers—Baryon Acoustic Oscillations
Growth—Redshift Space Distortions
Growth—Cosmic Shear and Galaxy Cluster Mass Calibration
WFIRST, LSST and Euclid—A Powerful Complementary Program for Cosmology in the Next Decade
Surveying the Evolution of the Universe
The WFIRST/AFTA Observing Program