National Academies Press: OpenBook
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Risks and Risk Governance in Shale Gas Development: Summary of Two Workshops. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18953.
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Risks and Risk Governance in

SHALE GAS
DEVELOPMENT

SUMMARY OF TWO WORKSHOPS

Paul C. Stern, Rapporteur

Board on Environmental Change and Society

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Risks and Risk Governance in Shale Gas Development: Summary of Two Workshops. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18953.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS    500 Fifth Street, NW    Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported primarily by the National Science Foundation through Grant No. SES-1156274. Support for participant travel came from Shell Upstream America, and the Park Foundation made possible the live Webcasting of the workshops. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-31257-8
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-31257-4

Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.

Copyright 2014 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Cover: Ivy Mowers (in the blue top) and Zoe Mowers (in the green top) play outside their home with views of a drilling rig and huge walls surrounding the well site in a portion of the town of Mead, Colorado, U.S., on Friday, June 6, 2014. Matthew Staver /Landov

Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2014). Risks and Risk Governance in Shale Gas Development: Summary of Two Workshops. P.C. Stern, Rapporteur. Board on Environmental Change and Society, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Risks and Risk Governance in Shale Gas Development: Summary of Two Workshops. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18953.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Risks and Risk Governance in Shale Gas Development: Summary of Two Workshops. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18953.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Risks and Risk Governance in Shale Gas Development: Summary of Two Workshops. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18953.
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STEERING COMMITTEE ON RISK MANAGEMENT AND GOVERNANCE ISSUES IN SHALE GAS DEVELOPMENT: TWO WORKSHOPS

MITCHELL J. SMALL (Chair), Departments of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University

SUSAN CHRISTOPHERSON, Departments of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering and Public Policy, Cornell University

ABBAS FIROOZABADI, Reservoir Engineering Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA

BERNARD D. GOLDSTEIN, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, University of Pittsburgh

ROBERT B. JACKSON, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University

D. WARNER NORTH, Office of the President, Northworks, Inc., Belmont, CA

ASEEM PRAKASH, Department of Political Science, University of Washington

BARRY RABE, Center for Local, State, and Urban Policy, Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

SUSAN F. TIERNEY, Managing Principal, Analysis Group, Boston, MA

BARBARA ZIELINSKA, Organic Analytical Laboratory, Desert Research Institute, Reno NV

Staff

PAUL C. STERN, Project Director and Rapporteur

MEREDITH A. LANE, Board Director

THOMAS WEBLER, Consultant

MARY ANN KASPER, Senior Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Risks and Risk Governance in Shale Gas Development: Summary of Two Workshops. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18953.
×

BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY

RICHARD H. MOSS, (Chair), Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park

ARUN AGRAWAL, School of Natural Resources & Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

JOSEPH ARVAI, Department of Geography, University of Calgary

ANTHONY BEBBINGTON, Graduate School of Geography, Clark University

WILLIAM CHANDLER, Transition Energy, Annapolis, MD

F. STUART (TERRY) CHAPIN, III, Institute of Arctic Biology and Department of Biology and Wildlife, University of Alaska

RUTH DEFRIES, The Earth Institute, Columbia University

KRISTIE L. EBI, Department of Medicine, Stanford University

MARIA CARMEN LEMOS, School of Natural Resources & Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

DENNIS OJIMA, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University

JONATHAN OVERPECK, Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona

STEPHEN POLASKY, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota

J. TIMMONS ROBERTS, Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University

JAMES L. SWEENEY, Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University

GARY YOHE, Economics Department, Wesleyan University (until July 2013)

Staff

MEREDITH A. LANE, Director

PAUL C. STERN, Senior Scholar

MARY ANN KASPER, Senior Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Risks and Risk Governance in Shale Gas Development: Summary of Two Workshops. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18953.
×

Acknowledgment of Reviewers

This workshop summary has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published summary as sound as possible and to ensure that the summary meets institutional standards for clarity, objectivity and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this workshop summary: David H. Auston, Institute for Energy Efficiency, University of California, Santa Barbara; Alan J. Krupnick, Center for Energy Economics and Policy, Resources for the Future; Andrew G. Place, Energy and Environmental Policy, EQT Corporation, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; Edwin P. Przybylowicz, senior vice president and director of research, retired, Eastman Kodak Company; Hermann I. Schlesinger, Department of Chemistry, University of Chicago; Susan F. Tierney, Analysis Group, Boston, Massachusetts; and Rex W. Tillerson, Exxon Mobil Corporation.

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of the workshop summary before its release. The review of this summary was overseen by Robert W. Corell, senior fellow, Florida International University, and principal, Global, Environment and Technology Foundation, Grasonville, Maryland, and M. Granger Morgan, Department of Engi-

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Risks and Risk Governance in Shale Gas Development: Summary of Two Workshops. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18953.
×

neering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University. Appointed by the National Research Council they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this summary was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this summary rests entirely with the author and the institution.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Risks and Risk Governance in Shale Gas Development: Summary of Two Workshops. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18953.
×

Discussant Comments, Gabrielle Petron, University of Colorado-Boulder, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Questions and Discussion

Public Health Risks in Shale Gas Development

Presentation by John Adgate, Colorado School of Public Health

Discussant Comments, David Brown, Southwest Pennsylvania Environmental Health Project

Discussant Comments, Tiffany Bredfeldt, Texas Commission on Environmental Quality

Questions and Discussion

Ecological Risks of Shale Gas Development

Presentation by Zachary H. Bowen and Aida Farag, U.S. Geological Survey

Discussant Comments, Margaret Brittingham, Pennsylvania State University

Questions and Discussion

Implications of Shale Gas Development for Climate Change

Presentation by Richard Newell, Duke University

Discussant Comments, Jason Bordoff, Center for Global Energy Policy, Columbia University

Questions and Discussion

Risks to Communities from Shale Gas Development

Presentation by Jeffrey Jacquet, South Dakota State University

Discussant Comments, Susan Christopherson, Cornell University

Questions and Discussion

Interactions Among Risks

Presentation by Alan Krupnick, Resources for the Future

Discussant Comments, Charles Perrow, Yale University

Discussant Comments, Roger Kasperson, Clark University

Questions and Discussion

Wrap-up Discussion of the Workshop

Final Comments

Wrap-up of Risk Questions for Future Analysis

Workshop 2: Governance of Risks of Shale Gas Development

Identifying Governance Concerns and Challenges

Responses on Shale Gas Governance from a General Elicitation, Presentation by Gabrielle Wong-Parodi, Carnegie Mellon University

Governance Concerns and Government Capacity, Presentation by Barry Rabe, University of Michigan

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Risks and Risk Governance in Shale Gas Development: Summary of Two Workshops. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18953.
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Governance Considerations from a Technical Perspective, Presentation by Mark D. Zoback, Stanford University

Questions and Discussion

The Ability of Governments to Meet Governance Challenges

Evaluating and Enhancing the Capacity of the States to Govern Unconventional Oil and Gas Development Risks

Presentation by Hannah Wiseman, Florida State University

Discussant Comments, R. Steven Brown, Environmental Council of the States, Washington, DC

Presentation by Jim Richenderfer, Susquehanna River Basin Commission, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

Questions and Discussion

Substate Federalism and Fracking Policies: Does State Regulatory Authority Trump Local Land Use Autonomy? Presentation by Charles Davis, Colorado State University

Discussant Comments, Sarah Fullenwider, City of Fort Worth, Texas

Discussant Comments, William Lowry, Washington University

Questions and Discussion

The Potential for Managing and Reducing Risk through Nontraditional Regulatory Approaches

Presentation by Sheila Olmstead, University of Texas

Discussant Comments, Kate Konschnik, Harvard Law School

Questions and Discussion

Governing Shale Gas Development in the European Union, Presentation by Elizabeth Bomberg, University of Edinburgh

Governing Shale Gas Development in Canada: The Case of New Brunswick, Presentation by Louis Lapierre, University of Moncton

Questions and Discussion

Questions about the EU Situation

Questions about New Brunswick

Comments on the Day’s Discussions

Governance Beyond Governments

The Potential for Industry Self-Governance

Environmental Self-governance: Conditions for Industry Effectiveness, Presentation by Aseem Prakash, University of Washington

Assessing the Potential for Self-Regulation in the Shale Gas Industry, Presentation by Jennifer Nash, Harvard University

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Risks and Risk Governance in Shale Gas Development: Summary of Two Workshops. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18953.
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Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Risks and Risk Governance in Shale Gas Development: Summary of Two Workshops. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18953.
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About This Publication

This publication is a summary of two workshops, organized by a committee of the National Research Council (NRC), in which participants considered and assessed claims to advance knowledge about the levels and types of risk posed by the development of shale gas resources and about the adequacy of existing governance procedures and institutions for addressing the risks. With primary support from the National Science Foundation and additional support for participant travel and for dissemination of results from the Park Foundation and Shell Upstream America, the NRC’s Board on Environmental Change and Society established a Steering Committee on Risk Management and Governance Issues in Shale Gas Development to organize the workshops, which were held on May 30-31, 2013 and August 15-16, 2013. The tasks for this activity were defined as follows:

A steering committee established by the NRC would organize two workshops to examine the range of social and decision-making issues in risk characterization and governance related to gas shale development. Central themes would include risk governance in the context of (a) risks that emerge as shale gas development expands, and (b) incomplete or declining regulatory capacity in an era of budgetary stringency. The first workshop will follow the systematic approach to risk characterization recommended in the 1996 NRC report, Understanding Risk, which has not yet been applied in this context. It will engage experts and practitioners in addressing the concerns of a range of interested and affected parties to identify key issues and discussing the state and limits of scientific knowl-

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Risks and Risk Governance in Shale Gas Development: Summary of Two Workshops. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18953.
×

edge on those issues. The second workshop would engage social scientists from several research traditions to apply a variety of insights about risk management institutions to the shale gas case, while interacting with each other and with practitioners.

A designated rapporteur will write a summary of the presentations on risk issues raised in the first workshop, the risk management and governance concepts presented at the second workshop, and the discussions at both workshops. The summary might include a selection of signed papers by workshop presenters, after appropriate review. It would note the risk questions posed at the workshops for future analysis and the risk management challenges and opportunities identified, which could be considered in future national discussions about the development and implementation of the technology. It would not offer any consensus judgments or recommendations.

This report has been prepared by the workshop rapporteur as a factual summary of what occurred at the workshop. The steering committee’s role was limited to planning and convening the workshop. The views contained in the report are those of individual workshop participants and do not necessarily represent the views of all workshop participants, the steering committee, or the NRC.

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Natural gas in deep shale formations, which can be developed by hydraulic fracturing and associated technologies (often collectively referred to as "fracking") is dramatically increasing production of natural gas in the United States, where significant gas deposits exist in formations that underlie many states. Major deposits of shale gas exist in many other countries as well. Proponents of shale gas development point to several kinds of benefits, for instance, to local economies and to national "energy independence". Shale gas development has also brought increasing expression of concerns about risks, including to human health, environmental quality, non-energy economic activities in shale regions, and community cohesion. Some of these potential risks are beginning to receive careful evaluation; others are not. Although the risks have not yet been fully characterized or all of them carefully analyzed, governments at all levels are making policy decisions, some of them hard to reverse, about shale gas development and/or how to manage the risks.

Risks and Risk Governance in Shale Gas Development is the summary of two workshops convened in May and August 2013 by the National Research Council's Board on Environmental Change and Society to consider and assess claims about the levels and types of risk posed by shale gas development and about the adequacy of existing governance procedures. Participants from engineering, natural, and social scientific communities examined the range of risks and of social and decision-making issues in risk characterization and governance related to gas shale development. Central themes included risk governance in the context of (a) risks that emerge as shale gas development expands, and (b) incomplete or declining regulatory capacity in an era of budgetary stringency. This report summarizes the presentations on risk issues raised in the first workshop, the risk management and governance concepts presented at the second workshop, and the discussions at both workshops.

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