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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1991. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: A Proceedings. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1911.
×

MANAGING WATER RESOURCES IN THE WEST UNDER CONDITIONS CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY

Proceedings of a Colloquium November 14–16, 1990 Scottsdale, Arizona

Committee on Climate Uncertainty and Water Resources Management

Water Science and Technology Board

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1991

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1991. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: A Proceedings. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1911.
×

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Stuart Bondurant is acting president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

Support for the project was provided by the Bureau of Reclamation under Cooperative Agreement 1-FC-81-00900.

INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER 0-309-04677-7

LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOG CARD NO. 91-67298

Copies of this report are available from:

Water Science and Technology Board

2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.

Washington, D.C. 20418

National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418

S491

Printed in the United States of America

Cover photograph, "Colorado River Delta Meets the Sea of Cortés," used with permission from Annie Griffiths Belt, Silver Spring, Maryland.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1991. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: A Proceedings. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1911.
×

Dedication

This volume is dedicated to the memory of Roger R.D. Revelle (1909-1991), renowned oceanographer and student of the earth and its processes. Dr. Revelle worked at the forefront of efforts to understand the possible warming effects of greenhouse gases. A scientist of diverse talents, Dr. Revelle received the National Medal of Science from President Bush in 1990 . . . "for his pioneering work in the areas of carbon dioxide and climate modification, oceanographic exploration presaging plate tectonics, the biological effects of radiation on the marine environment, and studies of human population growth and food supplies." The Water Science and Technology Board and the Committee on Climate Uncertainty and Water Resources Management were honored that Dr. Revelle chose to participate in the colloquium that is the basis for this volume. His insights and humor will be greatly missed.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1991. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: A Proceedings. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1911.
×

COLLOQUIUM STEERING COMMITTEE

STEPHEN J. BURGES, Chair,

University of Washington, Seattle

ROBERT E. DICKINSON,

University of Arizona, Tucson

KENNETH D. FREDERICK,

Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.

ROGER E. KASPERSON,

Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts

BRUCE A. KIMBALL,

U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory, Phoenix, Arizona

DANIEL P. SHEER,

Water Resources Management, Inc., Columbia, Maryland

WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD

DANIEL A. OKUN, Chair,

University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

MICHAEL C. KAVANAUGH, Chair,

James M. Montgomery Consulting Engineers, Walnut Creek, California (through June 1991)

A. DAN TARLOCK, Vice Chair,

Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago-Kent College of Law, Chicago, Illinois

NORMAN H. BROOKS,

California Institute of Technology, Pasadena

RICHARD A. CONWAY,

Union Carbide Corporation, South Charleston, West Virginia

KENNETH D. FREDERICK,

Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.

DAVID L. FREYBERG,

Stanford University, Stanford, California

WILFORD R. GARDNER,

University of California, Berkeley

DUANE L. GEORGESON,

Metropolitan Water District, Los Angeles, California

HOWARD C. KUNREUTHER,

University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia (through June 1991)

JUDY L. MEYER,

University of Georgia, Athens

ROBERT R. MEGLEN,

University of Colorado, Denver (through June 1991)

DONALD J. O'CONNOR,

HydroQual, Inc., Glen Rock, New Jersey

BETTY H. OLSON,

University of California, Irvine (through June 1991)

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1991. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: A Proceedings. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1911.
×

STAVROS S. PAPADOPULOS,

S.S. Papadopulos & Associates, Inc., Rockville, Maryland

KENNETH W. POTTER,

University of Wisconsin, Madison

P. SURESH C. RAO,

University of Florida, Gainesville (through June 1991)

BRUCE E. RITTMANN,

University of Illinois, Urbana

DONALD D. RUNNELLS,

University of Colorado, Boulder

PHILIP C. SINGER,

University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

HUGO F. THOMAS,

Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection, Hartford (through May 1991)

JAMES R. WALLIS,

IBM Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York (through June 1991)

M. GORDON WOLMAN,

The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland

JOY B. ZEDLER,

San Diego State University, San Diego, California

WSTB Colloquium Staff

STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director

CHRIS ELFRING, Project Director

JACQUELINE MACDONALD, Research Associate

MARCIA WARE, Project Assistant (through July 1991)

WYETHA B. TURNEY, Secretary/Word Processor

WSTB Staff

STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director

SHEILA D. DAVID, Senior Staff Officer

CHRIS ELFRING, Senior Staff Officer

SARAH CONNICK, Staff Officer

JACQUELINE MACDONALD, Research Associate

JEANNE AQUILINO, Administrative Assistant

ANITA A. HALL, Administrative Secretary

MARCIA D. WARE, Project Assistant (through July 1991)

PATRICIA L. CICERO, Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1991. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: A Proceedings. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1911.
×

COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES

M. GORDON WOLMAN, Chair,

The Johns Hopkins University

ROBERT C. BEARDSLEY,

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

B. CLARK BURCHFIEL,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

RALPH J. CICERONE,

University of California at Irvine

PETER S. EAGLESON,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

HELEN M. INGRAM,

University of Arizona

GENE E. LIKENS,

The New York Botanical Garden

SYUKURO MANABE,

Princeton University

JACK E. OLIVER,

Cornell University

PHILIP A. PALMER,

E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co.

FRANK L. PARKER,

Clemson University

DUNCAN T. PATTEN,

Arizona State University

MAXINE L. SAVITZ,

Allied Signal Aerospace Company

LARRY L. SMARR,

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

STEVEN M. STANLEY,

The Johns Hopkins University

CRISPIN TICKELL,

Green College at the Radcliffe Observatory, Oxford, United Kingdom

KARL K. TUREKIAN,

Yale University

IRVIN L. WHITE,

New York State Energy Research and Development Authority

STAFF

STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director

STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director

JANICE E. MEHLER, Assistant Executive Director

JEANETTE SPOON, Financial Officer

CARLITA PERRY, Administrative Assistant

ROBIN LEWIS, Senior Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1991. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: A Proceedings. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1911.
×

Preface

The question of whether the earth's climate is changing in some significant, human-induced way remains a matter of much debate. But the fact that climate is variable over time is well known. These two elements of climatic uncertainty both affect water resources planning and management in the American West.

Natural variability in hydrologic processes is all-pervasive. Many techniques have been developed to describe components of this variability. Additional tools and strategies are needed to manage water effectively given inherent supply variability and competing demands. With added and improved capabilities and strategies, we will be better prepared to deal with the uncertainties presented by potential climate change.

"Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty," a colloquium held November 14–16, 1990, in Scottsdale, Arizona, was organized by the Water Science and Technology Board (WSTB) at the request of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The colloquium was held to examine the scientific basis for predictions of climate change, the implications of climate uncertainty for water resources management, and the management options available for responding to climate variability and potential climate change. Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Dennis Underwood, noting the importance of climate variability to his agency's operations in the West, took a personal interest in the colloquium and spoke with participants about his goals for the Bureau of Reclamation as it increases its emphasis on resource management issues.

The colloquium was developed by a steering committee consisting of Robert E. Dickinson, University of Arizona; Kenneth D. Frederick, Resources for the Future; Roger E. Kasperson, Clark

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1991. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: A Proceedings. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1911.
×

University; Bruce A. Kimball, U.S. Water Conservation Laboratory; Daniel P. Sheer, Water Resources Management, Inc.; and Stephen J. Burges, University of Washington. The proceedings include an overview prepared by the steering committee and the papers presented at the colloquium by individual authors. The introductory remarks made by the session moderators are included to capture the flavor of the colloquium. The overview has been subjected to the report review criteria established by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee; the individual papers and introductory discussions have been reviewed for editorial consistency but have not been peer reviewed.

I thank the steering committee members and WSTB staff, particularly Chris Elfring and Stephen Parker, for their efforts in planning and hosting the event. My great appreciation also goes to the session moderators, the authors of the papers presented, and the members of the discussion panel. These people all contributed generously of their time and expertise. The colloquium participants added much to the richness of the discussion. I thank all who attended.

Stephen J. Burges, Chair

Committee on Managing Water

Resources Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1991. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: A Proceedings. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1911.
×

Contents

1.

 

Overview
Stephen J. Burges and the Colloquium Steering Committee

 

1

 

 

Keynote Address

 

 

2.

 

Sharing Water Resources with Future Generations
Edith Brown Weiss

 

15

 

 

SESSION A THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY

 

 

 

 

Session Introduction

 

 

3.

 

The Science Climate Change and Climate Variability
Roger Revelle

 

28

 

 

Papers Presented

 

 

4.

 

Primer on Climate Change
Robert E. Dickinson

 

31

5.

 

Climate Change and Climate Variability: The Climate Record
Kevin E. Trenberth

 

47

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1991. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: A Proceedings. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1911.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1991. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: A Proceedings. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1911.
×
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1991. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: A Proceedings. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1911.
×
Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 1991. Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: A Proceedings. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/1911.
×

MANAGING WATER RESOURCES IN THE WEST UNDER CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY

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The question of whether the earth's climate is changing in some significant human-induced way remains a matter of much debate. But the fact that climate is variable over time is well known. These two elements of climatic uncertainty affect water resources planning and management in the American West.

Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty examines the scientific basis for predictions of climate change, the implications of climate uncertainty for water resources management, and the management options available for responding to climate variability and potential climate change.

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