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REFERENCE COPY FOR LIBRARY USE ONLY Physical Oceanography for the Year 2000 Prepared for the Ocean Studies Board Commission on Physical Sciences. Mathematics, and Resources National Research Council by W.D. Nowlin.Jr. H from Natural Technics* Information Sarvict, Springfield, Va. 22161 Order No _ AUG15'90 NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1987
II /J/l' NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the (tf* i Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from £. | the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private non-profit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific at)d technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman respectively, of the National Research Council. Available from Ocean Studies Board 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 GC11 .N6 1987 c.l Physical oceanography for the year 2000 /
OCEAN STUDIES BOARD Walter H. Munk, MAS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, physical oceanography (Chairman) D. James Baker, Jr., Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc., physical oceanography Peter G. Brewer, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, geochemistry John M. Edmond, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, marine chemistry Edward A. Frieman, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, acoustics Michael Glantz, National Center for Atmospheric Research, meteorology Michael C. Gregg, University of Washington, physical oceanography John Imbrie, NAS, Brown University, oceanography Reuben Lasker, NMFS/NOAA, comparative physiology James J. McCarthy, Harvard University, biological oceanography Dennis A. Powers, Johns Hopkins University, molecular ecology C. Barry Raleigh, Columbia University, geophysics David A. Ross, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, geological oceanography John G. Sclater, University of Texas at Austin, oceanography John H. Steele, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, biological oceanography Mary Tyler, Versar, Inc., biooceanography Carl I. Wunsch, NAS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, physical oceanography Mary Hope Katsouros, Senior Staff Officer Judith Mackaness, Staff Assistant Maureen Hage, Senior Project Assistant
COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND RESOURCES NORMAN HACKERMAN, Robert A. Welch Foundation GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University DEAN E. EASTMAN, IBM T. J. Watson Research Center MARYE ANNE FOX, University of Texas GERHART FRIEDLANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory LAWRENCE W. FUNKHOUSER, Chevron Corporation PHILIP A. GRIFFITHS, Duke University J. ROSS MACDONALD, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill CHARLES J. MANKIN, University of Oklahoma PERRY L. McCARTY, Stanford University JACK E. OLIVER, Cornell University JEREMIAH P. OSTRIKER, Princeton University WILLIAM D. PHILLIPS, Mallinckrodt, Inc. DENIS J. PRAGER, MacArthur Foundation DAVID M. RAUP, University of Chicago RICHARD J. REED, University of Washington ROBERT E. SIEVERS, University of Colorado LARRY L. SMARR, University of Illinois EDWARD C. STONE, JR., California Institute of Technology KARL K. TUREKIAN, Yale University GEORGE W. WETHERILL, Carnegie Institution of Washington IRVING WLADAWSKY-BERGER, IBM Corporation RAPHAEL G. KASPER, Executive Director LAWRENCE E. McCRAY, Associate Executive Director
FOREWORD This manuscript was prepared as a part of the Oceans 2000 exercise commenced by the Board on Ocean Science and Policy (BOSP). BOSP was reconstituted as the Ocean Studies Board in 1984. Although this overall project was not continued by the reconstituted Board, nonetheless this paper had already been submitted to the Ocean Studies Board, who felt that it was well worth publishing. The ideas and views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the members of the Ocean Studies Board. Also, this paper should be considered as "Physical Oceanography in the Year 2000, as seen from 1985."