Agricultural Development and Environmental Research: American and Czechoslovak Perspectives: Proceedings of a Bilateral Workshop (1987)

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Agricultural Development and Environmental Research: Near-Term and Long-Term Research Priorities CHARLES E. HESS University of California, Davis INCREASING AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY Three major legislative acts created the educational, research, and outreach system in the United States which has contributed significantly to increasing agricultural productivity (4). The Morrill Land Grant Act of 1862 established colleges of agricultural and me- chanical arts in each state to offer practical help for farmers through science and technology. The Act has been called one of America's great social inventions. In 1887, the Hatch Act was passed to es- tablish agricultural experiment stations in association with the land grant colleges which would serve agriculture with research and test- ing. Finally, in 1914, Congress passed the Smith-Lever Act which appropriated federal funds to supplement state and county funds in order to establish a Cooperative Extension Service for providing rapid diffusion of scientific and technical knowledge and for serving as a feedback mechanism by which problems at the farm level could be brought back to the university, thereby facilitating a relevance of research to farmers' needs. The history of U.S. agricultural productivity can be divided into four major periods: hand power, horse power, mechanical power, and finally, science power (Figure 1). The transitions from one form of power to another were marked by the Civil War, World War I, and World War II (6). As Figure 1 illustrates, during the science power period—when 117

118 120 100 2> 80 ° 60 c <i> 2 40 0) Q_ 20 Hand power u Mechanical Science Horsepower power power Civil war i , , .. i . . . , i tii i i i i i , i 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 Year FIGURE 1 U.S. agricultural productivity growth during the past 200 years. all three legislative acts previously mentioned were operational— dramatic gains in productivity were achieved. In their article "Eco- nomic Benefits from Research: An Example from Agriculture," Evenson, Waggoner, and Ruttan provided several indices to mea- sure productivity from the 1950s to 1978 (1). As shown in Figure 2, land productivity increased at a rate of nearly two percent per year. There was a dip in productivity in the early 1970s when, in part, less productive land was removed from the soil bank in response to world grain shortages. The index of labor productivity is widely used in agriculture and industry. Figure 2 also shows that since 1950 labor productivity has grown far more rapidly in agriculture than in the non-farm sector. Total productivity—which is calculated by divid- ing the index of farm output by the index of total farm input—has also grown rapidly since the 1950s. In the thirty-year period from 1949 to 1979, scientific and technological innovation increased agri- cultural output by 85 percent with no change in the aggregate level of agriculture input. World War II helped accelerate the true transformation of agri- culture in the United States. The shortage of labor pulled many of those underemployed on the farm into the factory, service jobs, or other urban jobs, providing parity wages for those who stayed

119 on the farm for the first time since 1920. During the war, farm- ers received special exemptions for fuel and tires, and by using all available machinery, produced 25 percent more food and fiber with 25 percent fewer workers. Also, new chemicals such as herbicides and organophosphate pesticides, produced in association with the war effort, became available for agricultural use. A measure of the increased use of science and technology power is shown in Figure 3 from a recent General Accounting Office (GAO) Report, U.S. Food: Agriculture in a Volatile World Economy (2). Between 1930 and 1980, labor input declined by more than 80 percent. Meanwhile, the use of mechanical power rose 200 percent, agricultural chemicals 1,900 percent, and seed almost 300 percent. Crop land as an input remained almost constant. In addition to increased efficiency of production from the ap- plication of the new tools provided by science, tax laws encouraged expanded production capacity through the substitution of capital for 60 Labor Productivity-Farm and Nonfarm 120 110 100 to 80 70 Total Productivity-Farm 1950 1967 1978 FIGURE 2 Productivity measures (1967 = 100).

120 2000 r 1600 eo 1200 ° " £8 x~ 800 •o 400 0 Chemicals . Feed a Seed VlH'.'!!_.—- Mechanical Power ?. Land "T r + .1 Labor 1930 1940 1950 l960 1970 1980 Years FIGURE 3 Changing inputs in agricultural production. labor and land. Examples of the tax provisions include tax advan- tages for expanding many capital investments, capital gains treat- ment of certain livestock returns, investment tax credits, and accel- erated depreciation rates. In other words, federal policies provided an incentive to use the new science and technology and consequently contributed substantially to the rapid increase in productivity. A most dramatic example of the interplay between science and government policy is seen in the tremendous growth of agricultural productivity in China. In seven years China has gone from a country which faced shortages in grains and fiber to an exporter of both. The agricultural sciences in China have been extensively rebuilt since the Cultural Revolution, when government investment and World Bank loans which have permitted the exchange of scholars and the renewal of the research infrastructure. But equally important was the govern- ment policy which changed the production unit from the commune to the individual household. After a household meets a specified quota of crops or animals, the surpluses can be sold to the state at higher prices or sold on the open market. The combinations of science and technology and incentives have facilitated an agricultural revolution in China. What have the benefits and costs to U.S. society been during this

121 period of rapid increase in productivity due to science power? One benefit of increased productivity or increased production efficiency is that costs to the consumer have been reduced. In 1950, the average U.S. household spent 22 percent of its income for food. Today, approximately 15 percent of household income is spent on food. Another benefit of increased productivity, at least initially, was the release of labor from food and fiber production to work in other sectors of our economy. As shown in Figure 4, the greatest decrease in farm workers was in the category of farm family labor, often the unpaid or underpaid sons, daughters, and spouses of the average farmer. Today approximately three percent of our population is directly involved in on-farm production of food and fiber. But in addition to the release of farm labor for work in other sectors of the economy, there was also a dramatic decrease in the 8 6 O = 4 5 Family Labor Hired Labor J_ 1950 1960 FIGURE 4 Number of farmworkers. 1970 1960

122 10 g 8 o . E £ •E 3 1930 1940 1950 1960 Years 1970 1980 1983 500 400 300 200 100 0 O O 10 E k_ £ FIGURE 5 Number of farms compared with farm size. number of farms and an increase in farm size, as shown in Figure 5. In 1930, there were 6.3 million farms, averaging 157 acres in size. In 1983, there were 2.3 million farms averaging 437 acres. Many critics blame science and technology for the decline in farm numbers and the growth of farm size. While it is true that science and technology have made larger farming operations possible, it is incorrect to place all of the respon- sibility for the decline of farm numbers and the growth of farm size on science. Economic factors such as economies of scale associated with large purchases, policy issues discussed earlier—such as investment tax credits, accelerated depreciation rates and government price sup- ports, and other farm programs—all contributed to the decrease in the number of farms. In the current economic climate of depressed farm prices and high interest loans caused by the large national debt, the number of farms will continue to decline and the average farm size increase. Another criticism of the impact of agricultural technology is

123 that it has increased the vulnerability of U.S. farmers to external- ities. While farmers in the 1930s were largely self-contained, they now purchase about 75 percent of their production staples—such as pesticides, machinery, fuel, improved varieties, and fertilizers—from outside sources. Extensive purchase of production supplies from non- farm sources requires that farmers maintain adequate cash flow and be able to obtain operating credit. This situation makes the farmer more vulnerable to economic externalities while still being subjected to the vagaries of weather and the marketplace. ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS Perhaps one of the most serious challenges facing agricultural technology is the impact that the technology has had on the en- vironment. As seen in Figure 3, the use of agricultural chemicals grew by 1,900 percent in the 50-year period between 1930 and 1980. The appreciation of the adverse effects of agricultural chemicals— particularly on non-target organisms—has grown dramatically, as has the ability to detect and measure these effects. Perhaps as late as World War II, U.S. society was little concerned with agricultural scientists. There was general support for the idea that the most advantageous way for society to benefit from science was to allow scientists to follow the logic of their disciplines. There seemed to be vast reserves of land and water and an abundant supply of cheap energy. Any adverse effects of technological change were muted or absorbed by the abundant resources and an expanding economy. However, as the population grew and the resources of land, water, and energy and the availability of jobs became limiting, society began to take an interest in what was going on down on the farm and in the university. Interrelations became clearer. John Muir, founder of the Sierra Club, may have provided the first definition of ecology by stating "when we try to pick up anything by itself, we find it hitched to everything else in the universe." One of the first expressions of society's concerns about its environment and impact of technology was initiated in 1962 by Rachel Carson's book Silent Spring, which brought to the public's attention the potential impact of chemicals used to control pests of plant, animal, and human life. The space age was here, and views of the earth from spacecraft underlined how finite our resources really are.

124 Increased sophistication in instrumentation led to better detec- tion of chemicals in the environment. Measurements used to be in parts per thousand, then parts per million, and now parts per billion and trillion. Awareness that some compounds can cause genes to mutate and/or stimulate the initiation of cancer has increased the concern for the introduction of synthetic and even naturally occur- ring compounds into the environment, food, and water. In November 1986, California citizens overwhelmingly passed Proposition 65 which imposes large fines and possible imprisonment for anyone introduc- ing a possible carcinogen into drinking water supplies. If a citizen reports such an action, he or she can receive 25 percent of the fine. Universities have responded to these concerns. Many former colleges of agriculture are now colleges of agricultural and environ- mental sciences, and there has been more than just a name change. At the University of California at Davis, for example, there are de- partments of environmental toxicology, a division of environmental studies, and an institute of ecology. Integrated pest management programs have been developed to integrate all available pest control strategies—biological control, genetic resistance, crop rotation, and other management techniques, as well as selection of more targeted, biodegradable chemicals. Hopefully, the new tools provided by re- combinant DNA technology or genetic engineering will help speed understanding of pest/host interactions in order to develop new con- trol strategies and also speed the development of genetic resistance. Beyond the traditional objective that technology must be prof- itable for the user, additional criteria in agricultural research and development must be applied. Included are energy efficiency, accept- able long-range physical impacts on the environment, minimization of health and safety risks, and acceptability and/or mitigation of social costs. RESEARCH PRIORITIES Given this background, what are our short- and long-term re- search priorities for environmental research? First, it is necessary to better anticipate the risks associated with new technology, and to view food and fiber production as a system rather than as a single crop in a single season. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Joint Council on Food and Agricultural Sciences established the following fiscal year

125 1988 research priorities for research, extension, and higher education (7): • Enhance profitability in agriculture; • Expand biotechnology to enhance the benefits from plants and animals; • Improve water quality and management; • Strengthen the development of professional and scientific exper- tise; • Enhance productivity and conservation of soils; • Expand domestic and foreign markets and uses for agricultural forest products; • Preserve plant germplasm and genetically improve plants; • Improve human nutrition and the understanding of diet/health relationships. Under the first category of enhancing profitability in agricul- ture are the following specific criteria for research, extension, and teaching: • Develop total farm production, management, and marketing sys- tems that will sustain the long-term productivity, profitability, and competitiveness of agricultural operations; • Expand holistic educational programs using multidisciplinary teams, results demonstrations, computer programs, and individ- ual assistance to accelerate the adoption of appropriate technolo- gies, and organize and tailor them into individualized systems that are viable, realistic, and economically feasible; • Encourage producers to adopt technology and practices that improve efficiency, cut the cost of inputs, and reduce animal and plant losses while increasing product quality and improving net income. The second priority, expansion of biotechnology to enhance the benefits from plant and animals, is an area rich in potential applica- tions to reduce the environmental impact of agricultural production. Recombinant DNA techniques provide the tools to better under- stand host/pathogen or pest interactions which can lead to new pest control strategies. It may be possible to speed the rate of developing plants resistant to abiotic environmental stress such as salt tolerance and to biotic stress caused by diseases and insects. The identification of the nif genes associated with biological nitrogen fixation raised the hopes that the range of organisms could convert atmospheric nitrogen to ammonia and other nitrogenous compounds. Although

126 this objective has yet to be realized, the efficiency of the existing nitrogen-fixers has been increased, and there is a better understand- ing of the complex set of interactions that take place in a symbiotic relationship. The whole area of rhizosphere dynamics—including the presence of microorganisms that reduce diseases and insects and en- hance nutrient uptake—is a high priority research area in which the tools of recombinant DNA will play an important role. An example is the transfer of the gene from Bacillus Thuringiensis, which reg- ulates the production of a protein toxic, to tomato hornworms to Pseudomonas fluorecens, which lives in association with corn roots in order to provide black cut worm control. Microorganisms can also be selected or modified to biodegrade toxic substances that have accumulated in the soil. Finally, an important area of research in the biotechnology area is risk assessment to determine the impact of the release into the environment of recombinant DNA-modified organisms. The third major priority is to improve water quality and water management. Included is the need to increase available water sup- plies through the application of improved watershed management practices on forests and rangeland. Improved management practices are also required to prevent salinity and to reduce the energy re- quirements in the movement of water. An area of growing concern in irrigated agriculture is the safe and economic disposal of drainage waters which can contain salt, selenium, heavy metals, and pesti- cides. Specific recommendations for science and education in this area include: • Assess the impact of water pollutants including acid rain on livestock, crops, and forest and aquatic systems; • Formulate improved management systems that better utilize chemicals, minimize erosion, and reduce the movement of pollu- tants to surface and groundwater; • Develop economic practices to increase water yields from forests and ran gel an ds; • Increase efficiency of irrigation water use; • Increase understanding of relationships between crop production systems and the quality of groundwater and surface waters; • Improve soil and water management systems to reduce the im- pact of salinity and improve irrigation efficiency; • Design systems for the safe and economic disposal of contami- nated irrigation waters;

127 • Develop and implement coordinated interdisciplinary activities concerned with the nature of water resources; the importance of water and human health and nutrition; the proper use, handling, and disposal of agricultural chemicals; and the impact of various land uses. The next priority area which has a direct impact on the envi- ronment is to enhance productivity and conservation of soils. Soil resources are a primary determinant of the productivity of U.S. crop, range, and forest lands. Soil compaction, salinity, loss of or- ganic matter, atmospheric deposition, and restricted drainage reduce productivity. Accelerated soil erosion caused by wind and water is viewed as a national problem which not only affects productivity but also creates sediment with losses to recreation, fisheries, and water facilities. Specific science and education programs in this area include: • Improve understanding of the relationship between erosion and soil productivity; • Improve crop, range, and forest land management through new, lower cost, resource-conserving plant production systems. For example, conservation tillage has been widely adopted because of strong economic incentives such as lower labor, machinery, and energy requirements. At the same time it promotes soil conser- vation, fertility management, and reduced soil erosion from wind and water when used in conjunction with other conservation practices and shelterbelts. • Promote the concept of new plant and animal production sys- tems to accelerate the adoption of cost-effective, economically feasible conservation practices in order to reduce the impact of soil erosion on both producers and consumers and to encourage the shift of marginal lands to conservation uses. National policies play a very important role in this priority area. For example, price supports of small grains encourage the planting of fragile lands. Therefore the public pays twice: once for subsidies for the costs of the production and again for the costs of the en- vironmental impact of that production. On the positive side, 1985 national legislation includes conservation provisions to reduce soil erosion, improve water quality, improve fish and wildlife habitats, and remove incentives to convert wetland and grassland to crops. All farm land will be classified as to its potential for erosion. If a farmer wishes to farm highly erodible land (about 25 percent of total

128 farm land), the farmer must have a conservation plan developed and approved by the USDA Soil Conservation Service by 1990 and fully implemented by 1995. If a plan is not developed, the farmer will lose eligibility for a number of USDA programs such as commodity price support loans, Farmers Home Administration loans, and federal crop insurance. Another priority area that has important environmental im- plications is the preservation of plant germplasm and the genetic improvement of plants. The understanding and appreciation of the sources of desired traits and the genetic basis of inheritance will provide geneticists, biotechnologists, and breeders with the ability to develop species, varieties, and strains that are more resistant to pests, tolerant of environmental stresses, and capable of utilizing beneficial microorganisms. To take advantage of the powerful new tools for manipulating genes to achieve these goals, efficient systems for collecting, preserving, evaluating, and distributing germplasm are essential. Special research topics in this area include: • Develop innovative procedures for preserving and evaluating germplasm such as cryogenic storage and genetic mapping; • Determine the genetic basis for minimizing damage caused by pests such as nematodes, pathogens, insects, and weeds; • Establish the genetic basis for tolerance to environmental stress; • Determine the genetic basis for characteristics which determine superior physiological and morphological traits that will facili- tate new cropping systems; • Develop conservation programs to reduce the loss of germplasm resulting from new farms, roads, housing, and industry. The tropical forests in Central and South America are an area of par- ticular concern because many genera and species of wild plants are being lost, resulting in a decrease in the earth's total photo- synthetic capability. Three other areas of research which are important priorities for agriculture and the environment are integrated pest management, sustainable agricultural production systems, and global tropospheric chemistry. Improved pest management technologies and educational programs are needed to employ economically feasible and environ- mentally safe systems for control of disease, insects, nematodes, and weeds. Essential components of a successful system are the abil- ity to predict and control pest and disease occurrences (often using

129 computer-based models), statistical sampling techniques, biological control and cultural techniques, and precision application of pesti- cides which are highly specific to the target pest. The foregoing discussion divides problems into definitive areas, such as soil, water, germplasm, and integrated pest management. Such an approach is often necessary to comprehend and define a problem and to develop a strategy to solve it. However, the total system of food and fiber production is in a constant state of inter- action with the environment. In order to better appreciate these interactions and, hopefully, to better anticipate the consequences of particular actions, a research, teaching, and extension program in sustainable agriculture has been developed which is described as a holistic approach to the food and fiber system (5). Areas of research will include the effects of different cover crops on soil management and fertility; intercropping studies comparing planting times, spac- ing variety combination, pest relationship, and ease of field opera- tions; organic management systems for specialty crops appropriate for small-scale operations; and the integration of livestock and crop production. Finally, an area of research which needs more attention by sci- entists engaged in agricultural and environmental research is global tropospheric chemistry (3). The atmosphere is an ever-changing, physically and chemically active environment wherein oxygen, car- bon dioxide, and nitrogen are fuels and food for human, animal, and plant activity. The troposphere, the lowest region of the atmo- sphere containing 80 percent of the atmospheric mass, is an inte- gral part of the biosphere and an essential component of the global life-support system. Although the atmosphere is self-cleansing— primarily through chemical reactions based on the abundant supply of molecular oxygen—a variety of measurements made over the past few years and decades indicate that the global atmosphere is chang- ing. It is not certain that all of these changes are due to human activities but some, such as the buildup of carbon dioxide, appear to be. Recent measurements of atmospheric methane show it is presently increasing globally at a rate of over one percent each year. Synthetic chlorofluorocarbons are believed to be partially responsible for the decrease of ozone observed at the South Pole which leads to an ozone hole during the Antarctic spring. The need to do research concerning acid rain has been recognized, but there should also be concern about the potential long-range

130 effects on climate caused by the increase of carbon dioxide and a possible increase in ultraviolet light if ozone is in fact decreasing. Major accomplishments have been made through science and technology in the development of a highly productive food and fiber system. But society is increasingly questioning the cost of this pro- ductivity, particularly in terms of the quality of the water, soil, and air. The conclusion is that the costs are outweighing the benefits. A full research agenda is in place to ensure that in the long term an adequate supply of food and fiber will be provided but produced in a way that will ensure that the system can be sustained for the benefit of future generations. REFERENCES 1. Evenson, R. E., P. Waggoner, and V.W. Ruttan. 1979. Economic ben- efits from research: An example of agricultural science. Science 205 (September):1101-1107. 2. General Accounting Office. 1985. U.S. food: Agriculture in a volatile world economy. Briefing report to Congress (November). GAO/RCED-86-3BR. 3. Global tropospheric chemistry. 1986. Plans for the U.S. research effort. Boulder, Colorado: Executive Summary University Consortium for Atmo- spheric Research. Office of Interdisciplinary Earth Studies. 4. Hess, C.E. 1985. Past, present and future of agricultural research. In M. Gibbs and C. Carlson, Eds. Crop productivity - research imperatives revisited. An international conference held at Boyne Highlands Inn, October 13-18, 1985, and Airlie House, December 11-13, 1985. 5. Hess, C.E. 1986. Shaping the future: Agricultural sustainability in the research and information system. Symposium on the Sustainability of California Agriculture, January 30-31, 1986. Sacramento, California. 6. Office of Technology Assessment. 1981. An assessment of the United States food and agricultural research system. OTA-F-155 (December), p. 67. 7. U.S. Department of Agriculture. 1986. Priorities for research extension and higher education, fiscal year 1988. A report to the Secretary of Agriculture by the Joint Council on Food and Agricultural Sciences.