Workshop on Systems Analysis: Summary Report (1984)

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PART III OBSERVATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

GENERAL RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE NRC PANEL The intensive sessions and field trips held with the Indonesian team members and their leaders during this 5-day workshop gave the NRC panel an excellent opportunity to observe firsthand the capabilities of the Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) for carrying out beneficial studies in the areas of solid waste management, urban transportation, and the Indonesian food system. Members of these teams appear to represent a substantial portion of the perhaps 100 or more Indonesians with similar qualifications in the field of systems analysis (S/A). In general, the NRC panel found that these individuals are highly motivated, industrious, tenacious, and, within the limits of their training, capable. Indeed, the work that these three teams have undertaken has provided an excellent training ground for sharpening individual skills. For the most part, these individuals have the equivalent of a bachelor's and, in some cases, master's degree in widely varying subjects. Most have undergraduate exposure to mathematics and statistics, and some have carried on systems analysis-related studies beyond the undergraduate level. Because com- puter facilities are scarce, there is a lack of the computer sophisti- cation that is needed to press forward with solutions to complex technical and social problems. Present capabilities, though limited by number of personnel, levels of training, and computer availability, are nonetheless sufficient to undertake important projects and make significant contributions to the progress of the Indonesian economy. To maximize this potential, how- ever, a number of aspects of this work need considerable strengthening. MANPOWER AND TRAINING Manpower To enable the effective application of systems analysis in a large and complex society facing numerous technical, administrative, and social problems, the number of trained systems analysts in Indonesia must be increased severalfold. A target number for the fourth 5-year develop- ment plan (REPELITA IV) might be a total of 500 additional qualified individuals. At least 25 of these analysts should have Ph.D. degrees, and most, if not all, should have the equivalent of a master's degree. As noted earlier, working with teams such as those involved in this - 77 -

- 78 - workshop provides practical experience and training that are often the equivalent of that gained from university courses. Training While this panel did not examine the curricula available at Indonesian universities and colleges, it is clear that much can be done to provide a stronger educational base for Indonesia's future systems analysts. In at least two locations, curricula leading to a master's degree in systems analysis or operations research should be established. This will require an adequate number of Ph.D.s who, it is hoped, will have had some practical exposure to S/A projects in fields relevant to the Indonesian problems. Increasing the number of S/A Ph.D.s who might serve as leaders and role models on Indonesian higher education faculties must be given high priority if the internal education program is to succeed. It is not necessary, of course, that all these faculty members be Indonesian. The hiring of several qualified individuals from countries where systems analysis is firmly established may add to the strength of the program. Indonesia has significant contacts with European and North American universities and sends students to such institutions to obtain higher degrees. This practice is of key importance in the development of a S/A capability in Indonesia and should be accelerated as much as possible. Returning Ph.D.s in systems analysis will serve the internal educational objectives as well as provide important technical and administrative leadership to future Indonesian projects. University Cooperation and Coordination Indonesian universities and technical colleges already have contacts with major educational institutions throughout the world. Extending and focusing these relationships, both internally and externally, are the keys to achieving a successful educational program for, and the use of, systems analysis. The International Federation of Operational Research Societies (IFORS), an organization of national systems analysis and operations research (SA/OR) bodies that maintains its Secretariat* in Denmark, is an ideal vehicle for Indonesian universities, BPPT, and other institu- tions to use in organizing essential contacts. Early steps are crucial to the effort aimed at permanently enlarging the pool of qualified S/A personnel in Indonesia. Identification, guidance, and programs on a cooperative basis with internal and external educational institutions should be established along with strong formal and informal linkages to the major international institutions in the field through IFORS. One *The secretary is Helle R. Welling, c/o IMSOR Building 349, Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Lyngby, Denmark. Lists of the country members of IFORS, IFORS officers, and information concerning other affiliates and the 1984 Triennial Conference have been provided to BPPT.

- 79 - committee of IFORS, under the chairmanship of Arthur A. Brown, assists countries newly introduced to systems analysis in all aspects of educa- tional and international cooperation and assistance. BPPT should arrange to contact IFORS directly and begin to formally organize SA/OR personnel in Indonesia into an Indonesian SA/OR society which in due course could apply to become a member of the international federation. In any event, Indonesia should, in cooperation with the universities, send delegates to the 1984 Triennial IFORS meeting which will be held in August 1984, in Washington, D.C. Literature The panel found the literature resources available to the Indonesian teams (and those not represented at the workshop) to be very deficient. Work in systems analysis has been done in many countries on problems that confront Indonesia and has been widely reported. A large body of literature, including bibliographies and journals, exists, mainly in English but also in French and German, that could speed the process of applying systems analysis effectively in Indonesia. Many of the basic materials are now in inexpensive paperback form, and this panel recom- mends that a carefully chosen library, including such journals as Management Science, Operations Research, etc., be established in BPPT. It is also recommended that one or more of the comprehensive books on systems analysis be furnished to each team member. Computers The computer world has undergone a radical change in the past few years, and inexpensive but powerful small computers are available for individual use. These microcomputers provide analytical and computa- tional power in small packages that until recently was available only in the larger expensive main-frame or mini-machines. General statist- ical and analytical as well as problem-specific (e.g., transportation analysis, resource allocation, financial spread sheets) programs are readily and inexpensively available. Every BPPT systems analysis-related team should be provided with one or more microcomputers with appropriate training and applications pro- grams for their exclusive use. At least one member of each team should be designated and trained as lead computer expert to assist in develop- ing the programs necessary to support the analyses and models developed by the team. This panel must voice a note of caution, however. The acquisition of advanced software and hardware technology cannot ensure successful end results unless it is accompanied by extensive and inten- sive training. LEADERSHIP OF S/A GROUPS The choice of leaders for S/A projects requires bringing together all the forces pertinent to both the problem and its solution—administrators,

- 80 - government agencies, universities, and trained individuals—so that through cooperation, coordination, and the combined commitment of resources they may increase the likelihood of success and the value to the nation of the end results. The leaders chosen for projects must be able to manage the inevitable conflicts of interests and goals to yield maximum benefits. The present and likely future leaders of the BPPT S/A teams are young and enthusiastic and not greatly experienced either technically or administratively. Thus they must be strongly supported by an administrative apparatus which, while it may not itself have a S/A orientation, should be able to guide the group leaders in the management process. Each group leader should have a supportive, mature, administrative alter ego who can help identify and define key issues and deal with management problems that might otherwise hinder a team's efforts. Management training exercises for present and potential team leaders led by such administrators can help achieve better results and appraise potential group leaders for new projects. INTERAGENCY COOPERATION AND COORDINATION There are four critical requirements in developing effective systems analysis for Indonesia, which can only be met by the fullest coordination and cooperation of the various government agencies. First, information must be sought on situations in which systems methodology and computer technology have proven useful elsewhere and have a high potential. This means establishing a regular process for acquiring information from other countries and a regular reporting of program and project activity. Second, there must be a careful review of the state of the art in a given sector, as this workshop was intended to do. An advisory role by outside experts in this evaluation would be both appropriate and valuable. Third, there should be a widespread, sustained program of orientation and education for BPPT officials, regional administrators, and selected technical and educational leaders to increase their awareness of and sensitivity to the impact of change on the community. Finally, there must be appropriate administrative action by the government and BPPT to strengthen the S/A research and development programs, to support the educational programs, and to initiate pilot projects designed to apply innovative techniques in solving problems. Taken together, these elements can provide a solid base for trained systems analysts who wish to apply their skills to the maximum extent. PROJECT PLANNING AND CONTROL While the NRC panel experts found the three group projects competently managed, it was suggested that the end objectives could possibly be more effectively achieved with added doses of pragmatism and project control. It is difficult to create and maintain among diverse government agencies a staff of qualified analysts. Yet it is essential that the BPPT, as

- 81 - one agency dealing with the complex problems of Indonesia, secure the ability to work with these problems in a systematic way. BPPT must find ways to use outside consultants more effectively through correspondence and visits and to guide the consultants and their undertakings, whether at a distance or on the spot, into fruitful channels. BPPT and other agency administrators must be willing to invest sub- stantial amounts of time in their own teams and the consultants. They will then learn from exposure to the systems methodology as well as have the opportunity to communicate to the analysts the many constraints that surround public programs and policy decisions. BPPT should also initiate a program of project planning and control to provide formal statements and definitions of the problems to be undertaken. These formal problem statements would be made available both internally and externally to (1) members of the agencies involved, other administrators, and analysts who may work with, be members of, or lead a team if the project goes forward; and (2) to such outside con- sultants, experts, and advisors as may be appropriate for the problem. Feedback from these individuals and modification of the problem state- ment as well as clarification of the approaches and plans to carry them out would be the expected result of this process. This panel suggests that the problem statements contain, at a minimum: 1. Problem definition a. Source b. Possible causes c. Who and what are affected d. Magnitude, extent, and future growth of problem e. Urgency 2. Objectives and evaluation criteria a. Key purposes for undertaking b. Positive and negative effects c. Measures of effectiveness of the results (measures of progress along the way) 3. Current status and who is involved a. Other agencies b. Community sectors c. Administrative levels d. Coordinate parallel or conflicting programs 4. Political, timing, and economic factors 5. What are possible solutions to the problem? Which of these should the S/A program consider undertaking? 6. Possible next steps (more than one, if feasible) and specification of alternatives chosen a. Timing b. Scope c. Data problems d. Resources required.

- 82 - This document should be complete enough to permit all parties to comment effectively and for decision makers to arrive at a decision. S/A resources will be scarce for some time to come, and the selection of projects will be an important factor in the success of the BPPT systems analysis program. A project management document should follow outlining detailed responsibilities and authorities. This document can provide the start- ing basis for project control, and by being kept up to date as the project proceeds, it can also be used by project managers, administra- tors, agency personnel, and consultants to follow and control the project's .progress. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION AND DECISION REQUIREMENTS This panel recognizes that the final decisions in virtually every S/A project involve judgments about what is most beneficial for the country. Clearly these are political decisions, properly matters for debate within the government, and no S/A or computerized operational effort should make final choices. These latter activities can, however, make those decisions more informed and expand the benefits to be gained. While systems analysis provides the gateway to larger opportunities, and even shows the path by virtue of a detailed implementation scheme that is part of the final S/A report, implementation of projects is the task of government administrators. Without a regular source of educated analysts whose skills are continually being upgraded by education and outside contacts, effective computer support, good literature and cor- respondence resources, and appropriate communications with and the cooperation of the using agency, the systems analysis task in Indonesia will not be accomplished. These four implementation requirements must be undertaken by the BPPT and other appropriate government authorities if the excellent start that the NRC panel recognizes is to become the foundation for significant progress. NATIONAL ORGANIZATION This panel recommends that: • A (formal or informal) State Council (Committee, Panel) on Systems Analysis be established to provide a focus for govern- ment efforts to increase the number of qualified systems analysts and the effectiveness of systems analysis with regard to REPELITA IV. Membership on the council should, of course, include BPPT representatives and university personnel, as well as any others selected by the Ministry of State for Research and Technology. • The functions of the State Council on Systems Analysis should include but not be limited to:

- 83 - — Establishing goals and objectives for the enrollment of S/A candidates in Indonesian and other universities and technical colleges. — Collecting data and engaging in correspondence on educational requirements, curricula, and availability of S/A training in other countries. — Monitoring and evaluating progress in increasing the quality and quantity of Indonesian S/A education and the graduates it produces. Stimulating, encouraging, and supporting the formation of a national SA/OR society and assisting in the affiliation of that society with the International Federation of Operational Research Societies. — Advising the Minister of State for Research and Technology on strategies, progress, and potential studies in the field of systems analysis. — Obtaining from each Indonesian university and from appropriate agencies and each BPPT S/A team an annual report describing the state of educational programs and the status of S/A projects. Encouraging the publication within and outside Indonesia of work in systems analysis by individuals. — Establishing a program to develop an effective computer infrastructure and a library of S/A materials and to provide students and team members with materials for their own study and use. Recommending workshops and national and international meet- ings that should be held in Indonesia on subjects relating to systems analysis. Reporting annually to the Minister of State for Research and Technology on the council's activities, including progress made by the government, the universities, and the project groups toward increasing the use and effectiveness of systems analysis in Indonesia. — Maintaining an ongoing record of the applications of systems analysis and the impact on the services affected. The establishment of a State Council on Systems Analysis would signal the government's serious intent to utilize systems analysis in attacking problems, as well as facilitate the coordination required to develop worldwide S/A contacts. The panel views this council as an advocate for systems analysis; a monitor of the quality of S/A projects, personnel, and education; a means of providing constructive assistance to Indonesian educational institutions in increasing their number of S/A students and expanding their curricula; and an important resource to the Minister of State for Research and Technology, BPPT, and other agencies in the development of S/A policies.

OBSERVATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT This workshop's emphasis on solid waste management was undertaken for the following purposes: • To provide guidance in systems analysis and solid waste management • To consider means of establishing continuing communications between the BPPT solid waste staff, the NRC panelist, and other U.S. experts • To review work performed by the Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) on incineration and refuse collection in Jakarta • To discuss sampling procedures for studying solid waste characteristics. FIELD TRIP OBSERVATIONS Field trips were made by NRC panelist Abraham Michaels and BPPT solid waste team members to sanitation facilities in Jakarta and Surabaya. The visit to the Jakarta sanitation operations areas included the collection operations, depot transfer stations, transport operations, disposal operations at an open dump, and a sanitation headquarters and vehicle maintenance yard. The group was shown a slide presentation of the overall operations of the department. The plastic bag manufacturing facility was also visited, where it was learned that an impressive production rate of 4,000 bags per day is maintained. The high level of maintenance service was also noted. A trip was also made to Surabaya to learn about its municipal solid waste operation and to tour its sanitation facilities, including collection operations, depot transfer operations, transport operations, the open dump site, and the compost plant. Their sanitation vehicles are owned, operated, and maintained by a private company. It was noted that both the publicly owned Jakarta and privately owned Surabaya vehicle maintenance operations reported equally good maintenance records —approximately 10 percent vehicle downtime. The compost plant was out of service at the time of our visit because of a breakdown. Compost sold well for the first 5 years of - 84 -

- 85 - operations but had no market during the last year. The compost plant reports a very high rate of reject material—70 percent—which appears to be attributable to the high content of thick, dense organic matter such as tree leaves, stalks, and fresh fruit and vegetable market waste. The rejected material was disposed of by open burning, and the burning condition was poor. A solid waste management study for the City of Surabaya was discussed with managers of the Sanitation Department. The management reported that it was implementing some of the recommendations, but a major recommendation—the transport of waste in railroad cars—would not be implemented at this time because of the high cost. It was noted that the waste characteristics test data used in the study were probably inadequate, and that it would be desirable to conduct more extensive characteristics studies to ensure the validity of any plans based on the quality of the waste. BPPT INCINERATION AND REFUSE COLLECTION STUDIES In discussing the incinerator and collection and transport studies, NRC panel members and the BPPT's solid waste group agreed that the solid waste characteristics data used for the incinerator study were not an adequate basis for the results reported in the study. Specifically, the solid waste characteristics in the study describe food waste and vege- tation as one group, and it is assumed that this waste is comparable to food waste when incinerated. In fact, a substantial part of that waste includes thick, fresh leaves, stalks, and dense vegetable market waste, a combination that is difficult to burn without prior processing. Furthermore, there is some question as to whether municipal waste con- taining 60 percent moisture is exothermic. The NRC panel found that the waste characteristics test procedure used by BPPT is good and should be continued except that the category of waste identified as "organic" should be divided into food waste and heavy, dense waste such as leaves, tree and shrub trimmings, and fruit and vegetable market waste. It would probably be desirable to increase the frequency of sampling for test purposes to four times a year. In view of the apparent high moisture content of the waste, the feasibility of using it as fuel in an incinerator designed to produce steam and electricity should be reexamined. It would be desirable to test samples of waste in existing incinerators such as those available in hospitals or industry. If the waste is not suitable for energy generation, the present Solid Waste Master Plan for Jakarta should be reexamined, and additional alternatives such as rail haul and barging to sea should be analyzed. It was also agreed that the incinerator study for Central Jakarta is a limited systems analysis that emphasizes the feasibility of the incineration process. It is recommended that the study be expanded to include the results of additional waste characteristics test data and to examine additional alternatives. Among the latter are incineration without energy recovery; incineration in small, strategically located modular incinerators up to 200 tons per day capacity, with and without energy recovery; and baling prior to landfilling.

- 86 - The collection study, which considers a number of alternatives, is recognized to be a systems analysis. The 30,000 population study size is an appropriate constraint that is based on the present organization of the city's Sanitation Department. It may be desirable to expand this study by adding alternatives such as the use of temporary container locations to be serviced in accordance with an appropriate schedule. The BPPT solid waste group intends to test the recommended Models IV and V—container and compactor models—in several locations. One significant factor to be studied is the social and economic impact on the population, including the effect on scavenging at the depots and the attitude of residents in the community to the change in collection practices. Finally, BPPT is fortunate to have a dedicated, competent group of young people working on this project under the direction of Group Leader Miss Sri Bebassari. They did, however, express the concern that their youth will make it more difficult to meet their goals. The addition of experience to the group may improve their ability to influence other agencies and organizations involved in the development and implementa- tion of solid waste programs.

OBSERVATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND URBAN TRANSPORTATION As a result of a preliminary study of Jakarta's Eastern Corridor and of field investigations during this workshop, this study group recognized two broad aspects of the urban transport problem that must be linked through systems analysis. First, in large Indonesian cities, especially Jakarta, there is a widely felt need for major improvements in the means of daily travel, at reasonable cost to the user and the government and with minimum demands for petrol and other energy sources. These improvements are particularly important for the welfare and mobility of the low-income population. Second, at the same time, a large number of instruments or actions can be brought to bear on these problems, including: Traffic management (including bus system management) Facility improvement New facility construction New system construction (e.g., electric railways) Restraints on use of private vehicles Better coordination of job location and housing location through improved urban planning. Each of these instruments has many subcategories. The application of systems analysis to urban transport should result in a small set of well-formulated alternatives, together with their analysis, designed to solve as many problems as possible and to serve the appropriate decision makers. This group tentatively decided to focus on low-cost alternatives, a constraint imposed by the world economic situation and by the present weak demand for petroleum. If these matters improve, more ambitious alternatives can be explored. The three major problems identified in relation to developing and testing these alternatives can be overcome by related steps: 1. Securing additional data about the current location of people and jobs in the Jakarta metropolitan area and about their transport needs 2. Developing through research an understanding of several aspects of transport behavior and of the functioning of the transport system - 87 -

- 88 - 3. Acquiring or creating comprehensive means for testing alter- natives and improving them once they have been generated. The transport group should begin work on these problems in cooper- ation with the Municipality of Jakarta, the Ministry of Communications, and the Department of Public Works. Studies might be begun in five areas: 1. Facility design, cost, and performance 2. Traffic characteristics and the consequences of management changes 3. User behavior (e.g., automobile ownership) 4. Location and relocation of employment 5. Large-scale computer methods for systems analysis. These studies should be preceded by the assembly of available data from all possible governmental and nongovernmental sources. Studies should be planned in such a way as to develop skills, train personnel, improve interagency cooperation, and create a stock of data and computer software as the work proceeds. This means that simple studies well suited to the capacities of other agencies should be done in cooperation with them. The participation of appropriate university capabilities in Indonesia should be encouraged. The Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) will serve as a coordinating agency and will spearhead the development and assimilation of new methods.

. OBSERVATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND THE INDONESIAN FOOD SYSTEM From observations based on visits to individual farm communities, the village unit cooperatives (KUDs), the National Logistic Agency (BULOG), and the Agricultural Technical Development Center, it is evident that the decision by the Agency for the Assessment and Application of Tech- nology (BPPT) to use systems analysis (S/A) to provide information for investment and other policy decisions is both appropriate and timely. Clearly, the more, if not most, productive, cost-efficient activi- ties related to agricultural technology have been or are being implemented. Systems analysis was not required to make the decisions that these activities would provide the highest return to the agricul- tural and food industry for the investment made. Future investment and other policy decisions, however, will not be so obvious with respect to selecting the highest payoff activities. Applied systems analysis will be a significant benefit in this respect. In considering the application of systems analysis to the Indonesian food system, the NRC panel recommends that the fact that the nature and degree of complexity of the food system differ from those of the waste disposal and transportation studies be reflected in the general approach to implementing systems analysis in this complex area. While the latter two areas include some characteristics of systems engineering in which an ultimate objective appears achievable, the development of a model for the food system will of necessity be evolutionary in character, with gains in the total development made only in increments over time as additional sectors and functions of the system are included in the overall study. Even the objectives and purpose of the food system study will change over time as information requirements change. The logical progression from a statement of specific problems through the develop- ment of a single analytical model to the achievement of the desired state of the area studied implies some finality that should not be expected for the food system as a whole. As suggested above, there could not be a more complex system to study in Indonesia than that of the food system. In terms of structure, data requirements and availability, policy issues involved, multidimen- sional value sets, number of components, potential impacts, etc., one cannot conceive of a more complex system that also has such important implications. In view of this, it would be unfair to expect the NRC panel and the BPPT food system study staff to develop a definitive - 89 -

- 90 - system model, analytical methodology, or even a definite strategy for doing so within the limited time period available to them. Reasons for this are made clearer below. At best, it was felt that these individuals could-jointly formulate the framework of an approach for developing these systems components. The following recommendations are offered in this context. CURRENT STATUS OF THE FOOD SYSTEM STUDY The NRC panel recognizes that a great deal of effort has already been made on the food system study and that the BPPT study staff and its leaders are to be commended on their achievements to date. The steps taken to this point have been both appropriate and necessary, and any systems analyst would have undertaken the same course of action at this particular stage in the development of a food system model. Rice was the appropriate commodity to select for a pilot effort because of its relative importance and the degree of separation in pro- duction and handling. An evaluation of the product flow model indicates that production, processing, storage, distribution, and consumption are the appropriate functional areas for the rice food system. These are the natural separations of commodity flows that are commonly used in most analyses of this kind. It is also a natural separation in that external influences on each functional area are generally different and separate from each other. Further, these functions are most conducive both to integration into higher levels of aggregation or, contrarily, to further partitioning into, for example, discipline-related activi- ties. It should be noted that even in developed countries this approach to modeling is frequently used when analysts encounter a new or unfami- liar area of study in the food system. It is recommended that the food system study staff (1) continue work on completing the existing model in terms of identifying missing com- ponents and linkages in their product flow diagram and (2) complete data specifications for system components for the 2 years currently under consideration as well as start descriptions for another year. This will provide the basis for a more definitive analysis. SUGGESTED FRAMEWORK FOR DEVELOPING SYSTEMS ANALYSIS Although a generalized analytical S/A model of the Indonesian food sys- tem would be most desirable, it is not practical to develop a model that is intended to answer all questions or provide information on any policy issue that might be required of it. Considering this limitation, what should the food system study staff do next with regard to introducing analytical methods into their product flow model? It is recommended that this staff begin immediately to develop a paper on the types of policy issues to be addressed by the S/A model. Such a paper is usually the first step in developing S/A models whatever the area of consideration. Once an initial draft has been completed, the paper should be reviewed and criticized by BPPT policymakers for

- 91 - accuracy, relevance, and some sense of priority. This paper will pro- vide the necessary guidelines for selecting the appropriate analytical models to be developed, since analytical models and procedures design is inherently associated with the specific information characteristics for which the model is intended to provide. An example of one consideration that should be covered in this paper is whether the systems analysis is intended to include only policy issues and other decisions relevant to the technology development and dissemination of BPPT or is intended to provide guidance to the food system regardless of in what ministry policy issues may arise. Beyond this, there is a wide range of issues at both the macro and micro levels of technology with which policymakers must contend, the highest level of which is contained in the third 5-year development plan, REPELITA III. Issues to be addressed by BPPT policymakers must be discerned from these as a start. In approaching this effort, the food systems study staff is reminded that the basic S/A process of partition- ing also applies here. The foregoing is not intended to suggest that no useful results can be expected from the extensive efforts to date without additional model development. On the contrary, it is important for the food system study staff to realize practical results from the foundation of effort com- pleted to date as soon as possible. It is equally important to continue to report results at each stage of development. The following activi- ties are recommended to accomplish this goal. Suggested Activities As indicated earlier, it is important to complete the flow model of the food system and to expand it to include an additional year. Based on these efforts, the food system staff should begin to prepare a report that will describe the food system as it exists, the dynamics of the system based on a comparison of data covering 3 years, and some con- clusions on the implications of these findings to policy issues and BPPT activities and to subsequent refinement of the total food system model. This will provide some immediate and significant information to policy- makers in BPPT and other ministries, while providing time for the staff to gain further experience in applied systems analysis. In response to inquiries from the food system study staff about appropriate analytical methodologies that could be applied as a next step, it was indicated that such a determination required a more definitive specification of what information was required of the model to answer significant policy issues. It is possible, however, to select arbitrarily a few key policy issues—such as an alternative investment in food systems technology development and dissemination—that can be answered by relatively straightforward analytical methodologies. For example, a budgeting methodology might be applied to the commodity flow model in a manner described in the food system study base paper. A second type of analytical methodology that can be applied is an input/ output model, requiring additional data on costs for each of the elements in each of the functional groups. A third type might be a

- 92 - relatively straightforward linear programming application, also requir- ing cost and price data, which might address questions of optimality given more than one incompatible policy goal. Others could be sug- gested, but these are sufficient to demonstrate that useful results can be obtained from a progressive expansion of the basic flow model as it exists. Again, this approach will also give the food system staff experience in S/A applications while continuing to develop their capabilities. Another activity that must be undertaken in the near future is the further partitioning of the current model, especially in the production function area. A partitioning based on the principal activities con- tributing to increased production over time might be the most appro- priate, although the food system staff may consider some other basis more suitable. The principal benefit of this activity, besides being able to identify more precisely technological possibilities, is to pro- vide a means of effective communication with individuals at univer- sities, agencies, and in the field who may have some concern about the implications to them of this new planning tool. The food system study staff should also start outlining commodity flow models for other important food products in a manner similar to the rice model. This can be conducted in a piecemeal manner over time while some of the above work is being completed. There are many knowledgeable individuals in Indonesia who can provide the staff with good approxi- mations of what these other commodity flow processes look like. As these take form, the approach needed to refine each commodity flow model will become evident. Having flow processes described for at least the major commodities, the food system staff will have a very substantive base on which to conduct a significant systems analysis of the entire food system. DEVELOPING STAFF CAPABILITY IN SYSTEMS ANALYSIS The ability to apply systems analysis successfully is not easily acquired by professionals who have not had prior training and some practical experience. For those who have been trained and are currently practicing in their particular discipline, it is not an easy task to reorient their way of thinking about problems to that of the systems analyst. Formal education and outside advisors can help, but S/A abilities are gained only through repeated exposure to actual studies conducted elsewhere and experience gained in conducting such studies. Three suggested ways of improving S/A capabilities of BPPT staff follow: 1. BPPT staff should individually or collectively review reports of previous S/A studies that have been conducted in the food and agricultural area. Such reports may be identified by establish- ing an informal communication with qualified systems analysts in one or more developed countries. 2. Outside specialists may be brought in for short periods of time to advise and assist BPPT staff on the aspects of systems analysis currently in progress.

- 93 - BPPT should take the initiative in establishing an informal association of systems analysts in the Jakarta area to meet at least monthly to discuss various aspects of this field. The main advantages of such an association would be (1) continuing support of the mutual interest in the S/A approach, (2) an effective continuing education opportunity, and (3) a mutually supporting and efficient method for identifying individuals in the Jakarta area having specialized knowledge on specific aspects of systems analysis. By initiating this activity, BPPT could make a significant contribution to government operations.