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Workshop on Systems Analysis: Summary Report (1984)

Chapter: APPENDIX A: Opening Remarks

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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A: Opening Remarks." National Research Council. 1984. Workshop on Systems Analysis: Summary Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/19383.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A: Opening Remarks." National Research Council. 1984. Workshop on Systems Analysis: Summary Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/19383.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A: Opening Remarks." National Research Council. 1984. Workshop on Systems Analysis: Summary Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/19383.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX A: Opening Remarks." National Research Council. 1984. Workshop on Systems Analysis: Summary Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/19383.
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APPENDIX A Opening Remarks Suleman Wiriadidjaja Chairman, Workshop Organizing Committee Deputy Chairman for Systems Analyses, Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) On behalf of the organizing committee, I would like to welcome you to the Workshop on Systems Analysis. Cooperation in the field of science and technology between the Republic of Indonesia and the United States has been a long time in existence, and this workshop represents one more step in this cooperation with the American scientific community through the National Research Council. Today we are very happy that this workshop takes place in Jakarta and will be opened shortly by His Excellency Minister Habibie [Minister of State for Research and Technology]. We are thankful to His Excellency for his sponsorship and full support, as well as to the American government for the assistance provided by the U.S. Agency for International Development and to the National Research Council which played an important role in making this meeting possible. This workshop specifically concerns the application of systems analysis as an aid in problem solving and decision making, resulting in an optimum development process. Special attention will be given to the subjects of solid waste management, urban transportation, and food systems because these subjects have been studied by the BPPT staff with the assistance of various national and local agencies, who have been particularly helpful in obtaining data and information. More than 60 participants from various government agencies and universities have been invited to this seminar, which, it is hoped, will establish a forum for the exchange of ideas and experiences on systems analysis between Indonesian and American scientists. It is also hoped that these discussions will present us with feasible and practical results concerning our future duties and will become the starting point for the application of systems analysis to support development in Indonesia. - 97 -

Opening Remarks B. J. Habibie Minister of State for Research and Technology Chairman, Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) It is a pleasure to join you on this important occasion and share with you several ideas on systems analysis. As you may already know, the Agency for the Assessment and Appli- cation of Technology, under my direction, has the following responsi- bilities : • To assist in formulating and implementing policies and programs for the application of technology relevant to national develop- ment • To implement and guide technology transfer programs • To evaluate worldwide technological developments and train man- power in requisite fields • To strategize Indonesian cooperation with foreign and inter- national technology agencies • To provide technology evaluation services to government agencies, enterprises, and private industries as well as support their technology development and application. Let me emphasize the significance of the last item. We are now in the fifth and final year of our third development plan, REPELITA III. A key aspect of national development planning is the optimal allocation of limited resources to achieve national goals. Less than optimal allocation leads to waste and possible slippage in achieving goals, and decision makers often have difficulty allocating resources optimally. Problem complexity and the limited time available for decision analysis are the major causes of faulty decisions. In this context, a systems approach appears to be a very promising aid for decision making. Initially, one must formulate the problem succinctly. A concise, accurate model that describes the problem then makes possible an array of alternative solutions. Each solution is evaluated for its advantages and disadvantages, its short- and long-term impacts, and its costs and benefits. With this approach, decision makers can select the best alternative and verify its effec- tiveness analytically. The intuition and experience of decision makers are not excluded, but are guided by the results of the system study. Care must be taken that the system model is complete; history has shown that overlooking a subtle but critical relationship in the model can lead to unanticipated and erroneous results. - 98 -

- 99 - As I have previously indicated, to develop our nation we must choose well-proven technologies. A so-called "appropriate technology" for a developing nation does not mean a backward technology. A systematic approach to technology selection evaluates both the positive and nega- tive consequences. At BPPT, the systems approach is guided by such criteria as maximization of added value, of jobs created, and of income produced. SYSTEMS ANALYSIS The science of this systems approach is formalized in a discipline called systems analysis, a fast-growing science. Because in this limited time I cannot describe our work in this area adequately, I will instead summarize some studies that have been or are being done by my staff. Solid Waste Management Management of solid waste disposal contributes to a better urban environment. A preliminary study was performed on solid waste collec- tion and transportation in Central Jakarta, followed by the preliminary design of a solid waste incineration plant. Included was an economic evaluation based on the costs of investment, operations, and main- tenance, as well as on revenue generated from electrical power output. This study also included a comparison for Central Jakarta of benefits from solid waste incineration and sanitary landfill. Further in-depth studies will be conducted. Food System The BPPT analysis of Indonesia's food system has concentrated on rice— the flow of this commodity from production, collection, processing, wholesale/retail sales, to consumption. The objective is to provide an analytical framework that economists can use to evaluate the impact on the food system of government programs and new technologies. The study consists of: • A description of the system, subsystem, and linkages • A description of each subsystem by major components • Measurement of the major components of each subsystem in terms of performance criteria from REPELITA III. From this, we expect to gain an improved understanding of the added- value process in the flow of food commodities, the effect of sales agents, institutional aspects, and the structure of the decision-making network. Because the analytical framework will not address allocation problems, a model will be developed to consider "what if" questions. The model will simulate policy impacts on the entire rice system.

- 100 - Urban Transportation In cooperation with the Jakarta government, BPPT has conducted several studies, the first of which was a demand forecast for urban transpor- tation services up to the year 2000. Several recommendations for policy formulation resulted. These successful results led to a similar study on urban transportation in Medan, Surabaya, and Ujung Pandang, which focused on the growth in demand for transportation services in those cities. With additional experience, we will be able to perform more specialized studies. Present efforts are concentrating on the Eastern Corridor of Jakarta and are expected to result in recommendations for improvements in bus service, including numbers of buses and schedule rearrangements. Indonesia is developing its capability to apply the principles and methodologies of systems analysis to specific problems and produce concrete answers. We in Indonesia are eager to extend these scientific and technological capabilities so necessary for continued progress in developing countries. We are ready to discuss our problems and needs and to benefit from a critical evaluation of our programs. I urge the participants in this workshop to produce concrete recommendations for the application of systems analysis in Indonesia. We would particularly welcome specific contributions from our colleagues from the United States. These contributions will serve to improve the skills of the BPPT staff engaged in the studies that are being addressed by this workshop. This transfer of skill is, as you all know, extremely critical to the process of enhancing the capability of developing nations to solve their own problems. It is with this hope that I look forward to your results and herewith declare the workshop officially open.

Opening Remarks David B. Hertz Director, Intelligent Computer Systems Research Institute, University of Miami Chairman, NRC Panel You have honored the members of the National Research Council panel by inviting us to participate in this workshop concerned with forwarding the methods and philosophies of modern systems analysis in Indonesia. Our two countries have worked closely for many years through the U.S. Agency for International Development and the National Research Council, among others, to improve the quality of life and the economic strength of your many islands and their peoples. We look forward to being able in our short stay with you to add to your already remarkable accomplishments. The NRC participants in this workshop will do their best to state clearly their views of what systems analysis is, what it can do, and how Indonesia can make the most use of it. Because in the short time that we have together it is not possible to be comprehensive, the activities have been chosen with you to reflect a variety of viewpoints and some differences in style as to both our approaches and the problems themselves. We will try to point out possible pitfalls and the potential opportunities and suggest ways you can avoid the former and capitalize on the latter. This workshop is concentrating on work that your teams have already undertaken on waste disposal and sanitation, transportation, and food production. It is hoped that our visit with you will not end with simply an evaluation on our part of what you are doing in these partic- ular fields along with suggestions for continuation and improvement of that work. We look forward to learning that the Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology is making increasing use of systems analysis approaches in many other areas that are important to Indonesia's newest economic plan, REPELITA IV. Although there will be a shortage of skilled personnel, each person who gains in skill through a practical and successful effort will be able to multiply that skill by training and leading others. Finally, we thank the government of the Republic of Indonesia and BPPT for this opportunity to join in the Workshop on Systems Analysis, and we look forward to achieving significant results. - 101 -

APPENDIX B Workshop Agenda February 7 (Monday) 10:30 a.m. Informal meeting of NRC panel, Sari Pacific Hotel 2:00 p.m. Informal discussion among NRC panel, Indonesian steering committee, and Indonesian lecturers February 8 (Tuesday) 9:00 a.m. Opening Ceremony Ir. Suleman Wiriadidjaja Deputy Chairman for Systems Analyses Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) Opening Remarks Dr. B. J. Habibie Minister of State for Research and Technology Chairman, BPPT Opening Remarks Dr. David B. Hertz Chairman, NRC Panel 10:15 a.m. A Systems Approach to Development Planning Processes Prof. M. T. Zen 11:30 a.m. Systems Analysis, Companion to Economic Development Dr. David B. Hertz 2:00 p.m. Specific presentations in working groups: Waste Disposal Urban Transportation Food Systems 3:35 p.m. Discussion to 4:30 p.m. - 102 -

- 103 - February 9 (Wednesday) 6:00 a.m. Food system group departs for Yogyakarta 8:00 a.m. Food system group visits Bappeda agricultural area, Yogyakarta Waste disposal group visits composting plant, solid waste improvement program pilot project, open dumping and sanitary landfill in Jakarta Urban transportation group visits Jakarta area 5:30 p.m. Waste disposal and urban transportation groups leave Jakarta for Surabaya February 10 (Thursday) Food system group visits Gunung Kidul and food-producing region Waste disposal group visits composting plant and waste disposal equipment center in Surabaya Urban transportation group visits Tool Road and Sidoarjo Corridor, Surabaya February 11 (Friday) 7:00 a.m. Food system group visits food production area, Yogyakarta 8:00 a.m. Waste disposal and urban transportation groups leave Surabaya for Jakarta 10:00 a.m. Lecture on Systems Analysis Dr. David B. Hertz 11:00 a.m. Food system group leaves for Jakarta Afternoon Discussions at BPPT February 12 (Saturday) 9:00 a.m. Discussions and conclusions at BPPT 11:30 a.m. Closing ceremony

APPENDIX C Workshop Participants INDONESIAN PARTICIPANTS Ir. Suleman Wiriadidjaja, Deputy Chairman for Systems Analyses, BPPT, Chairman, Workshop Organizing Committee Ir. Wardiman Djojonegoro, Deputy Chairman for Administration, BPPT, Cochairman, Workshop Organizing Committee Dr. Untung Iskandar, Leader, Basic Human Needs, BPPT, Coordinator, Workshop Organizing Committee Executive Committee Dr. Iman Suripto, Secretary to the Minister of State for Research and Technology Prof. M. T. Zen, Assistant Minister II, Ministry of State for Research and Technology Dr. Sabana Kartasasmita, Assistant Minister III, Ministry of State for Research and Technology Dr. S. Parlin Napitupulu, Assistant Minister IV, Ministry of State for Research and Technology Prof. Dr. Sukadji Ranuwihardjo, Assistant Minister (Policy Coordinator), Ministry of State for Research and Technology Dr. Burhan Napitupulu, Special Assistant, Ministry of State for Research and Technology Dr. S. B. Joedono, Senior Scientist, Ministry of State for Research and Technology Prof. Dr. A. B. Van Rennes, U.S. Technical Assistant to the Minister of State for Research and Technology Dr. S. Parlin Napitupulu, Vice Chairman, Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) Prof. Dr. Amiruddin, Deputy Chairman for Basic and Applied Sciences, BPPT Ir. H. D. Poesponegoro, Deputy Chairman for Technology Development, BPPT Ir. Rahardi Ramelan, Deputy Chairman for Industrial Analyses, BPPT Dr. Ibrahim Hasan, Moderator, BPPT Dr. Darmawan Saleh, Moderator, BPPT Dr. Ing. Muljo Harsono, BPPT - 104 -

- 105 - BPPT Organizing Committee Dr. Komarudin, Assistant to Deputy Chairman for Systems Analyses, Secretary Dr. Habsari Kuspurwahatiy, Secretary Ir. Henky Sutanto, Member, Solid Waste Management Study Dr. Ansorudin, Member, Solid Waste Management Study Ir. Jajang Hasyim, Member, Urban Transportation Study Dr. Lukman Sakarma, Member, Urban Transportation Study Ir. Sudarmodjo Dirdjonegoro, Member, Food System Study Ir. Hariadi Wardi, Member, Food System Study Agency for Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) Tri Djoko Wahyono, Systems Analysis Sudjud Suratri, Systems Analysis Subagio Imam K., Natural Resources Sri Sarnety M., Natural Resources Muhadi, Systems Analysis Sudaryanto, Systems Analysis Mustadjab, Planning Bureau Haryanto, Technology Department Ira, Technology Department Tiwie, Technology Department Hermanto, Technology Department Adi Sasitiwarih, Natural Resources Sri Lestari, Natural Resources Poedji Pranoto, Industrial Analysis Subiyanto, Systems Analysis Iding Chaidir, Systems Analysis Himawan Adinegoro, Industrial Analysis Soleh Iskandar, Systems Analysis Tusy Adibroto, Technology Development Sulaefi, Systems Analysis S. Kuncoro, Systems Analysis Mariadi, Systems Analysis Hawaria JM, Technology Development Tri Esti, Technology Development Budhi Priyanto, Technology Development H. Hayashi, Japanese Technical Assistant to the Minister of State for Research and Technology E.J. Lapian, Natural Resources Abdul Karim, Defense Industry Djoko Padmono, Technology Development Agus Kristijono, Natural Resources Syakur Salim, Systems Analysis Hermin, Industrial Analysis Osriman Ozsman, Industrial Analysis Simangunsong, Industrial Analysis Rahardjo, Systems Analysis

- 106 - Sri Rahayu, Systems Analysis Taty H., Systems Analysis Ruliasih, Systems Analysis Idwan, Natural Resources Wahyudi, Staff, Assistant Minister II, Ministry of State for Research and Technology Marlon Harun, Natural Resources Syaffriadi, Natural Resources Kuswarini Kusno, Systems Analysis Fathoni Moehtadi, Systems Analysis Solid Waste Management Working Group Ir. Sri Bebassari S., Leader, Solid Waste Disposal Study, BPPT Ir. Darmawan Saleh, Department of Public Works, Moderator Ir. Andrea Suhandjaja, Department of Public Works Ir. Anggraini, Surabaya Institute of Technology Dr. Benny Chatib, Bandung Institute of Technology Dr. Chaerul Mukti, Special Government of Jakarta Dra. Djuariah Ismail, Special Government of Jakarta Ir. E. Budirahardjo, Special Government of Jakarta Ir. Eddy Ihut Siahaan, Special Government of Jakarta Erry Chayaridipura, Special Government of Jakarta Ir. Hadilaksono, Special Government of Jakarta Dr. Harsono Tarupraceka, Bandung Institute of Technology Dr. Harsoto K., University of Indonesia Ir. Haryono Adali, Department of Public Works Ir. Indomoro Harahap, Department of Public Works Ir. Jacob Ruzuar, Department of Public Works Ir. Junani Kartawiria, Special Government of Jakarta Kaston Simarmata, Special Government of Jakarta Dr. Mochammad Suryani, University of Indonesia Momon Kusmana, Special Government of Jakarta Nasrun Achmad, Special Government of Jakarta Ir. Ratna Djuwita Wahab, National Development Planning Agency Dr. Saddik Ismail, National Logistics Agency Ir. Sakrani, National Logistics Agency Ir. Soedarsono Alisadono, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta Dr. Soedjatmiko, Department of Agriculture Ir. Soemangat, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta Dr. Soeprodjo, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta Stephano P., Office of the President Soenaryo, Private Businessman Suryadi Hadiyanto, Department of Agriculture Dr. Utomo Sarwan, Development Planning Board, Special Government of Jakarta Ir. Wisnu Murti M. Ardjo, Special Government of Jakarta

- 107 - Urban Transportation Working Group Ir. Hernono, Leader, Urban Transport Study, BPPT Dr. Ibrahim Hasan, Moderator Dr. Agus Salim Ridwan, Bandung Institute of Technology Amala Nurhaida, Department of Transportation Arif Salim, Department of Transportation Ir. Bambang Hermanto, Bandung Institute of Technology Ir. Bambang Sunyoto, Department of Public Works Ir. Basuki B. Achmadi, Special Government of Jakarta Boy S. Hakim, Special Government of Jakarta Cahyono Partawijaya, Department of Transportation Ir. Jamester A. Simarmata, Department of Public Works Ir. Dodo Yosida, Special Government of Jakarta Dr. Freddy T. Rirompandey, Department of Transportation Dr. Hadmadji Prodjomilono, Department of Transportation Hanredmana, Staff, Ministry of State for Research and Technology Hans E. Kawulusan, Department of Transportation Ir. Harris Fabillah, Department of Transportation Hartato Siswosoemarto, Jakarta Urban Transport Company Ir. Hartoyo, Department of Public Works Dr. Haryadi, Special Government of Jakarta Hilvy Handriany, Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia Dr. Iman Sudirman, Bandung Institute of Technology Ir. Irzal Z. Djamal, Special Government of Jakarta Karmawati Tunggadewi, Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia Ir. Kosasih, Special Government of Jakarta Dr. Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, Bandung Institute of Technology Dr. M.K. Gita Bantas, Development Planning Board, Special Government of Jakarta Dr. Muhammad Faisal, Bandung Institute of Technology Nia Soniati, Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia Nuning Sri Redjeki, Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia Poltak Simbolon, Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia Ir. Rae Prakadaya, Special Government of Jakarta Dr. Rafdjon Rax, Special Government of Jakarta Raymond Lukas, Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia Robby Ifrany, Special Government of Jakarta Ir. Saronto, Department of Public Works Sjafei Souib, Department of Transportation Ir. Sidharta Kamarwan, Faculty of Engineering, University of Indonesia Dr. S. Sukardjono, Surabaya Institute of Technology Suparman Ibrahimabdullah, Central Bureau of Statistics Ir. Suryadarma, Special Government of Jakarta Suwarto, Special Government of Jakarta Triono Prasodjo, Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia Dr. Totosoesilo H., Department of Transportation Ir. Udji Atmono, Department of Transportation Dr. Umar Rusdi, Department of Transportation Dr. Yusdi Achmad, Staff, Ministry of State for Research and Technology Dr. Maman Abdurachman, Department of Transportation P. Suwarto, Department of Transportation

- 108 - Food System Working Group Ir. Bambang Setiadi, Leader, Food System Study, BPPT Abuzar Asra, Central Bureau of Statistics Ir. Bambang Pramudya, Bogor Agricultural University Dasye Zaidaswan, Office of the President Dwita Sutjiningsih, Faculty of Engineering, University of Indonesia Dr. Hadi K. Purwadania, Bogor Agricultural University Ir. Hardjanto Wirjokusumo, Bogor Agricultural University Hariadi Halid, National Logistics Agency Imam Istianto, Bandung Institute of Technology Dr. Irian Soejono, Bogor Agricultural University Dr. Kamaruddin Abdullah, Bogor Agricultural University Ir. Kartini Hutauruk, Department of Public Works Marianne S., Office of the President Drs. Mochammad Amin, National Logistics Agency Dr. Mieke Germani, Special Government of Jakarta Dr. Moelyarno Djojomartono, Bogor Agricultural University Dr. Otto Soemarwoto, Padjadjaran University, Bandung Ir. Priyono, Special Government of Jakarta Ir. Purbaya Suryadarma, Development Planning Board, Special Government of Jakarta Ir. Radjiman, Department of Public Works Ir. Samsul Ardi Rachman, Special Government of Jakarta Ir. Sembiring, Department of Public Works Dr. Soepangat, Bandung Institute of Technology Ir. Sri Redjeki, Department of Public Works Ir. Suratmo Nutodipuro, Department of Public Works Ir. Sulistoweni Widanarko, Faculty of Engineering, University of Indonesia Dr. Syafril Marzuki, Special Government of Jakarta Syamsul Yacob, Special Government of Jakarta Dr. Ubuh Buhara, Bandung Institute of Technology Ir. Wahyu Santoso, Special Government of Jakarta Ir. Yuyun Suwaryo, Special Government of Jakarta Ir. Ali Rozi, Special Government of Jakarta Maskur Effendi, Department of Transportation Syamsul Ardi Rakhman, Special Government of Jakarta Dr. Cholik, Office of the Mayor, Surabaya Ir. Hawaria J.M., BPPT Ramzy Tadjoedin, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Indonesia UNITED STATES PARTICIPANTS Dr. David B. Hertz, Director, Intelligent Computer Research Institute, University of Miami, Chairman Dr. Walter L. Fishel, Assistant Director, Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center, Ohio State University Professor Britton Harris, School of Public and Urban Policy, University of Pennsylvania

- 109 - Mr. Abraham Michaels, Consulting Engineer, Osterville, Massachusetts Mrs. Rose Bannigan, Staff Officer, Board on Science and Technology for International Development, Office of International Affairs, National Research Council Mr. Augustus Nasmith, Jr., Staff Officer, Board on Science and Technology for International Development, Office of International Affairs, National Research Council

APPENDIX D Lecture on Systems Analysis David B. Hertz Director, Intelligent Computer Systems Research Institute, University of Miami Chairman, NRC Panel As we have discussed in this workshop, the process of analyzing systems to provide decision makers with an adequate understanding of the con- sequences of alternative courses of action can be a significant step in moving toward the goals of economic development in Indonesia. Systems analysis deals with both the patterns of the physical world, including the technological operational aspects of natural phenomena and man-made artifacts, as well as patterns of the social world including people and their governments. The systems we are concerned with are generally oriented toward man-chosen goals, and are often affected to a greater or lesser degree by outside factors such as climate, or resources such as soil and minerals. The interactions of the physical and social factors present decision makers with the opportunity to choose from among alternative courses of action in pursuit of specific goals. One course of action may, in given circumstances, be significantly better than another. It is the task of the systems analyst to help the decision maker determine which courses of action would indeed be best in the circumstances. SOME TOOLS Over the past several decades, systems analysts have developed and used various kinds of methodologies to improve the quantitative structures on which they base their recommendations. For example, operations research (which was developed during World War II to assist the military) comprises a set of mathematical approaches to probabilistic and complex combinations of variables that permit the pinpointing of optimum solutions to carefully defined problems. Management science, carrying on from the somewhat circumscribed mathematical methods of operations research, has attempted to widen the horizon of the systems analyst by including methods of managing sets of variables, including not only the physical but people as well. Finally, systems analysis itself has broadened the horizon by including both these approaches, as well as physical and social technologies to meet overall complex objec- tives of systems managers. - 110 -

- Ill - THE OVERALL PROCESS The process itself is simple. Perhaps an easy way to visualize the overall process is to consider the problem of choosing an airline trip to a chosen destination. Assume that one wishes to go from Jakarta to Washington, B.C. The airlines publish sets of schedules, along with sets of segmented costs. If one chooses the ultimate destination and desired objectives in terms of time, money, and other factors, such as stopovers, vacation possibilities, etc., one can, by going into the schedules, taking the overall objectives into account, arrive at specific alternatives. If the process is confined to air travel, the airline schedules will suffice. If one were to add sea travel to the potential technological process, then the boundaries of the system will be significantly widened and more alternatives will present themselves. In such a case, the time constraints would, of course, become very important, or even binding. In any case, this one-time decision could be analyzed and a set of alternatives presented that would outline the various consequences of making specific choices. Clearly the elements we must take into account are the problem objectives, the problem structure, the organizational processes or mechanisms for decision making, the time scale of the decision, whether it is one time or continuous, and the kinds of risks that one might be taking by making a given decision. If we were to add a continuous time process and make decisions over a period of time, we would have a dynamic system in which both the processes and the constraints are apt to change. All of these types of inputs and objectives must be con- sidered as the system analyst proceeds with his task. He should provide the decision maker with the possibilities of trade-offs and the costs of those trade-offs. Ultimately the decision maker will have to come to a decision, taking into account as much information as the systems analyst can provide. How should the systems analyst go about his job? The next section outlines a general procedure that can be used satis- factorily to undertake analyses of virtually any decision problem. THE STEP-BY-STEP SYSTEMS ANALYSIS PROCESS Take the following steps in roughly the order they are presented: 1. Understand the problem statement as presented to or as given by the decision makers. This understanding very often requires a preliminary drafting of the patterns of technical and social processes involved and a statement as to what kinds of alternatives the analysis is likely to lead. 2. The first step should provide sufficient understanding to yield a carefully structured statement of the objective of the analysis. 3. The variables involved are enumerated, including both the social and technical elements of the problem. 4. The constraints (what is not available, possible, or permitted) on both the solution and on the variables must be considered and defined.

- 112 - 5. At this point, we can begin to sketch out the structure or patterns of behavior in which (1) the static structure is described, and (2) the dynamic interactions between and among the variables, both within the system and outside the system, are included. 6. It is now possible to examine the measures to be used to evaluate the variables and develop means to measure variable changes in terms of performance of the system or parts of the system that we per- mit, like, or dislike. 7. Given these performance measures we can then establish the evaluation or decision criteria whereby we will measure and evaluate not simply the output of the variables, but the combination of those vari- ables that lead to a good, bad, best, or worst decision. 8. Trade-offs between and among the alternative decisions can be considered means of adjusting the evaluation criteria to yield more sensitive methods for the decision maker to make his choices. 9. Throughout this process the analyst will have been making assumptions about each of the previous items. These assumptions should be continuously recorded for the decision maker to review, and for possible changes in future iterations of the analysis. 10. The boundaries and scope of the system as analyzed should be presented to the decison maker, along with the constraints and assump- tions, so that they may be altered in future analyses. 11. Hypotheses about the action of the system will have been generated throughout the analysis, and they too should be recorded as the work of the systems analyst proceeds. Each of the previous elements will have had an influence on these hypotheses, and as the work goes forward the hypotheses themselves may change and thereby change the various parts as the analyses proceed. 12. Alternatives presented should be tested for (1) stability— that is, how the end results react over time as either physical or social conditions change; (2) their resilience or robustness—that is, how they stand up under a shock or major change in any of the input variables; and (3) their flexibility under changes of objectives by decision makers. 13. The time scale or time span under which these alternatives can be effectively used should emerge from the testing and the hypotheses. 14. At this point, decision making may be in order and the plans for implementation of decisions may be worked out. These plans should include the means by which the decision will be controlled over time, and changed if the need arises. SUMMARY We summarize this process by saying it must emphasize the decomposition of the problem into its parts; the testing and experimentation both by physical and by simulational methods; the generation of alternatives; the development of implementation plans; and finally, the development of means of controlling the decision process. Systems analysis methods are scientific methods applied to the unruly and disordered world of economic and social behavior. What we have tried to demonstrate is

- 113 - that a careful, step-by-step, interactive, systematic application of the human thought process to a problem can provide decision makers with useful tools to carry out their tasks.

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