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INTRODUCTION The focus of this report is ocean research that will lead to or support our ability to predict year-to-year natural variations in climate one season in advance. The report summarizes what we already know about the role of the ocean in climate variability. There is a list of references that includes many key papers. Against this background a discussion is presented on what ocean research should be done to help develop an ability to predict climate variations, particularly in agricultural regions where the economic benefit of such predictions would be great. The variability of climate on scales longer than the interannual, and long-term climate change are briefly considered, but are not the principal concern of this study. Oceanographers and meteorologists have proposed a number of national and international research programs designed to enhance our understanding of climate. Some parts of these programs are already under way. This report briefly describes and then evaluates the proposals for two large-scale oceanographic research programs: the Interannual Variability of the Tropical Ocean and the Global Atmosphere (TOGA) and the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE). In addition, planning for large-scale ocean heat flux experiments is reviewed. (A fuller description of these programs can be found in the references.) This report offers advice on strategies for each for NSF use. In a report of this kind, where general strategies are considered, it is probably unwise to attempt to spell out specific research programs that should be supported. Nevertheless, the conflicting needs for support must be resolved; that is, we need to set priorities. This is usually difficult because all the proposed programs appear to be exciting. But if we try to support everything, we risk failure by spreading the resources too thin. In order to begin to resolve this problem, principles (or a strategy) for research will be established herein whereby priorities can be set. This report also looks at possible ocean climate research that is not explicitly included in the existing
proposals for large-scale experiments. Has something important been left out? Not all good scientific ideas fit into the framework that has been established. Some scientists have not succeeded in selling their ideas about ocean climate research to their colleagues. Others prefer to work alone. The need to support some kinds of ocean climate research that may not have the blessing of the "establishment" is therefore considered. The proposals for ocean climate research seem to exceed the resources available. To go forward now with the programs proposed, significant new monies would probably have to be found, or ocean research might swallow up support that now is going to other disciplines. Some of the large-scale ocean climate research programs being proposed lack a full definition of objectives and tasks. Because of this, the resources needed to accomplish them have not yet been determined. This makes the setting of priorities even more difficult. Where priorities are indicated here, they should be open to modification as changes in objectives or resource levels occur. The principal objective of the ocean climate research considered here is the development of a predictive capability for forecasting interannual seasonal climate variations. The research involved falls into three categories: 1. Research is needed to obtain a description of the ocean-atmosphere system. We need to improve our knowledge of ocean climatology, and we need to define large-scale ocean-atmosphere correlations. 2. Research is needed to understand ocean processes that relate to climate variability. For example, what is the role of the ocean in heat transport and what are its variations? Can we construct models that simulate the important physical processes? 3. Tests of our predictive capability are needed. Models will be developed whose purpose is to predict climatic variations. Validating and testing these models will be important activities. Thus, in planning for ocean climate research, we should look for occasions to develop and test our predictive skill. The large-scale ocean experiments discussed here do not fit neatly into these categories. Each combines description, process studies, and models and has some elements related to prediction. Nevertheless, in assessing these programs as part of setting priorities, we should ask
how each contributes to improving the description of the ocean-atmosphere system, to defining the natural processes that affect climate variability, and to improving predictive ability. Another approach to setting priorities is to ask what factors are impeding progress. Are certain key elements acting as obstacles, such as the lack of an observing technology, or a missing link in the chain of knowledge about interacting natural processes? If a piece of knowledge is missing, sometimes it is difficult to know exactly what it is that holds us back. In other cases, there may be general agreement that a certain technique (such as an altimetric satellite) is needed before we can proceed. Those factors that appear to be critical if we are to advance will here be identified. The National Science Foundation has been identified as the lead federal agency for the Ocean Heat Transport and Storage "principal thrust" of the National Climate Program. The National Climate Program Plan (U.S. NCPO, 1980) designates six principal thrusts, two of which deal with research. A principal thrust has high priority, is of major importance to the goals of the program, and promises significant opportunity for progress. This report considers possible ocean climate research roles of the concerned federal agencies and indicates where work supported by each agency might fit into the context of the total national ocean climate research program. Finally, the report considers the international setting. Many countries are participating in the planning of a global research program that addresses all aspects of the problem of climate: the World Climate Research Program (WCRP). The WCRP plans for ocean climate research components are in varying states of development. This report reviews these plans and advises on U.S. involvement, that is, how American ocean climate research activities can fit within the world program, can aid it, and can benefit from it.
