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THE MANUFACTURING FORUM The Manufacturing Forum was conducted in 1990 and 1991 by the National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Sciences to provide a means by which policymakers from government, industry, and universities could meet to discuss issues that influence the competitiveness of manufacturing industries. The Forum was based on the recognition that future challenges to the performance of U . S . manufacturing industries from increased foreign competition, from developments in new technology, and from changes in our domestic economic and societal climates can only be effectively met by a concerted effort on the part of industry, government, and academia. The Manufacturing Forum was a device for improving communications among its members and to the larger community. It did not conduct studies, provide advice, or make recommendations on specific issues or policies . cover photo courtesy TRW Inc. 111
MEMBERSHIP OF THE MANUFACTURING FORUM RUBEN F. METTLER (Chairman), TRW Inc. !retired) DONALD R . BEALL, Rockwell International Corporation PHILIP E. BENTON, JR., Ford Motor Company ELWOOD P. BLANCHARD, JR., E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Co., Inc. ERICH BLOCH, Council on Competitiveness MICHAEL J. BOSKIN, Council of Economic Advisers D. ALLAN BROMLEY, Office of Science and Technology Policy W. DALE COMPTON, Purdue University RODERICK A. DEARMENT, Covington & Burling, Washington, D . C . JAMES J. DUDERSTADT, University o f Michigan DONALD F. EPHLIN, United Auto Workers !retired) JAMES F. GIBBONS, Stanford University PAUL E. GRAY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JERRY R. JUNKINS, Texas Instruments Inc. FRANK W. LUERSSEN, Inland Steel Industries, Inc. WALTER E. MASSEY, National Science Foundation W. HENSON MOORE, U . S . Department of Energy THOMAS J. MURRIN, Duquesne University ROBERT A. PRITZKER, The Marmon Group, Inc. JOHN S . REED, Citicorp JOHN E. ROBSON, U . S . Department of the Treasury MORRIS TANENBAUM, AT&T !retired) RICHARD H. TRULY, National Aeronautics and Space Administration ROBERT M. WHITE, U . S . Department of Commerce S. LINN WILLIAMS, Office of the U . S . Trade Representative !formerly ) DONALD J. YOCKEY, U . S . Department of Defense Ex Officio Members FRANK PRESS, National Academy of Sciences ROBERT M. WHITE, National Academy of Engineering Manufacturing Forum Staff CHRISTOPHER T. HILL, Executive Director PENELOPE GIBBS, Administrative Assistant iv
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The author wishes to acknowledge and thank Christopher T. Hilt Executive Director of the Manufacturing Forum, and Ruben F. Mettler, Chairman of the Manufacturing Forum, who provided helpful comments and guidance in the formative stages of this report. She also wishes to thank the members of the Manufacturing Forum, as well as other members of the technology policy community who reviewed drafts of the report and made valuable suggestions for its improvement. THE AUTHOR Mary Ellen Mogee is president of Mogee Research & Analysis Associ ates, a consulting group located in Great Falls, Virginia. She is also on the adjunct faculty of the Department of Management Science of the George Washington University, Washington, D . C . v
FOREWORD The Manufacturing Forum has identified many issues that need to be addressed and many opportunities that need to be grasped on the way to improving the future performance and competitiveness of U. S. manufactur ing industries, including changes in management practices, changes in the climate for investment, upgrading of the manufacturing workforce at all levels, and changes in a host of public policies intended to facilitate and/or constrain our manufacturing industries. To facilitate its consideration of specific manufacturing issues, the Forum commissioned experts in a variety of fields to prepare discussion papers . Each author is encouraged to express his or her own views suffi ciently sharply to catalyze serious discussion. The Forum members offer their individual views, which authors may accept or reject, but the papers do not in any sense represent the views of the Forum as a whole. The relationship of U.S. technology policy to the health and future performance of U . S . manufacturing industries was a matter of broad interest to the members of the Forum. Technology policy is a relatively new do main of public policy concern, one that draws for its substance on a mix of issues and concepts from related areas including science policy, economic policy, trade policy, tax policy, regulatory policy, national security, and public administration. This mix has complicated the task of forging a con sensus within the cognizant community regarding the proper domain of technology policy, and especially regarding the specific actions that need to be taken by government, industry, and academia in pursuit of an effective technology policy. In recent years, however, a number of distinguished expert panels has examined U . S . technology policy and offered recommendations for change in light of the new international and domestic economic circumstances. Some convergence has been reached on the proper scope and content of a technol ogy policy, although much remains unsettled. Of special interest is the emergence of generic precompetitive commercial and dual-use technologies as candidates for government support and the identification and analysis of specific " critical " technologies as a way to focus on top-priority substantive concerns. To aid in its discussions of technology policy and critical technologies, the Manufacturing Forum commissioned Dr. Mary Ellen Mogee to summa rize and evaluate the most important of the recent studies, including those that specifically address critical technologies. In addition to summarizing the prior work, she identifies areas of convergence and offers her views of the adequacy of this body of work and of needs for further inquiry and action. vi
In addition to this paper, Dr. Mogee prepared a detailed compilation of the specific recommendations of each of the technology policy studies she reviewed. A limited number of copies of the compilation is available from the Manufacturing Forum upon request. Ruben F . Mettler Chairman vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION 3 TECHNOLOGY POLICY REPORTS 6 Office of Science and Technology Policy Technology Policy Statement ....................................................................... 6 Office of Technology Assessment Reports .................................................. 10 National Advisory Committee on Semiconductors Reports .................... 10 National Association of Manufacturers Report .......................................... 11 Council on Competitiveness Reports ........................................................... 11 Economic Policy Institute Report ................................................................. 13 Carnegie Commission Reports ................. ............................ . . . . . . . .................. 13 CRITICAL TECHNOLOGIES REPORTS 15 National Critical Technologies Panel Report ............................................. 19 Department of Defense Critical Technologies Plans ................................. 21 Department of Commerce Report ................................................................. 21 Computer Systems Policy Project Report .................................................... 22 Aerospace Industries Association Report ..................................................... 22 Council on Competitiveness Report .............................................. ............... 23 AREAS OF GROWING CONSENSUS 24 Importance of Technology to Competitiveness .......................................... 24 Declining U . S . Technology Leadership ............................... . . . ...................... 24 Need for a Broad-Based Response .................................................................. 25 Critical Technologies ...................................................................................... 25 Generic and Dual-Use Technologies ............................................................ 26 Prominence of Defense-Related Issues ......................................................... 27 New Understanding of the Innovation Process .......................................... 28 Policy Recommendations ............................................................................... 28 Critical Generic Technologies ............................................................... 29 Federal Laboratories ................................................................................. 29 Industrial Extension and Regional Economic Development ............. 31 Fiscal Policy .............................................................................................. 31 Tax Policy.................................................................................................. 31 Antitrust.................................................................................................... 31 viii
Human Resources Environment ............................................................ 31 Trade-Related Intellectual Property ...................................................... 32 Government S &T Organization and Policymaking Machinery .......32 Presidential Leadership ........................................................................... 33 Knowledge Base . ............. 33 .......................................................................... Opposing Views on Specific Recommendations 33 ................................. UNRESOLVED ISSUES 34 The Role of the Federal Government in Commercial Technology . 34 . ....... Resistance to Reordering Priorities ............................................................... 35 Leadership 36 ......................................................................................................... EVALUATIVE COMMENTS 37 NEXT STEPS 40 NOTES 44 BmLIOGRAPHY 46 i.x
