OVERCOMING BARRIERS
TO DEPLOYMENT OF PLUG-IN
ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Committee on Overcoming Barriers to Electric-Vehicle Deployment
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
and
Transportation Research Board
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This project was supported by Contract DE-EE0004436 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-37217-6
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-37217-8
Library of Congress Control Number: 2015939639
Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2015 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
This page intentionally left blank.
COMMITTEE ON OVERCOMING BARRIERS TO ELECTRIC-VEHICLE DEPLOYMENT
JOHN G. KASSAKIAN, Chair, NAE,1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
DAVID BODDE, Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina
JEFF DOYLE, D’Artagnan Consulting, Olympia, Washington
GERALD GABRIELSE, NAS,2 Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
KELLY SIMS GALLAGHER, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts (until June 2014)
ROLAND HWANG, Natural Resources Defense Council, San Francisco, California
PETER ISARD, Consultant, Washington, D.C.
LINOS JACOVIDES, NAE, Michigan State University, East Lansing
ULRIC KWAN, IBM Global Business Services, Palo Alto, California
REBECCA LINDLAND, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
RALPH MASIELLO, NAE, DNVGL, Inc., Chalfont, Pennsylvania
JAKKI MOHR, University of Montana, Missoula
MELISSA SCHILLING, New York University, Stern School of Business, New York
RICHARD TABORS, Across the Charles, Cambridge, Massachusetts
THOMAS TURRENTINE, University of California, Davis
Staff
ELLEN K. MANTUS, Project Codirector
K. JOHN HOLMES, Project Codirector
JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Board Director
JOSEPH MORRIS, Senior Program Officer
LIZ FIKRE, Senior Editor
MICHELLE SCHWALBE, Program Officer
ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Associate Program Officer
IVORY CLARKE, Senior Program Assistant
LINDA CASOLA, Senior Program Assistant
_____________
1 NAE, National Academy of Engineering.
2 NAS, National Academy of Sciences.
BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
ANDREW BROWN, JR., Chair, NAE,1 Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan
DAVID T. ALLEN, University of Texas, Austin
W. TERRY BOSTON, NAE, PJM Interconnection, LLC, Audubon, Pennsylvania
WILLAM BRINKMAN, NAS,2 Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
EMILY CARTER, NAS, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station
NARAIN HINGORANI, NAE, Independent Consultant, San Mateo, California
DEBBIE NIEMEIER, University of California, Davis
MARGO OGE, McLean, Virginia
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
JACKALYNE PFANNENSTIEL, Independent Consultant, Piedmont, California
DAN REICHER, Stanford University, Stanford, California
BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, Daimler-Chrysler (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
DOROTHY ROBYN, Washington, D.C.
GARY ROGERS, Roush Industries, Livonia, Michigan
ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas
MARK THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego
ADRIAN ZACCARIA, NAE, Bechtel Group, Inc. (retired), Frederick, Maryland
MARY LOU ZOBACK, NAS, Stanford University, Stanford, California
Staff
JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Board Director
DANA CAINES, Financial Associate
ALAN CRANE, Senior Scientist
K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer/Associate Director
MARTIN OFFUTT, Senior Program Officer
ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Associate Program Officer
LANITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator
LINDA CASOLA, Senior Program Assistant
ELIZABETH EULLER, Program Assistant
JONATHAN YANGER, Research Associate
_____________
1 NAE, National Academy of Engineering.
2 NAS, National Academy of Sciences.
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2014 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE1
KIRK T. STEUDLE, Director, Michigan Department of Transportation, Lansing, Chair
DANIEL SPERLING, Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy; Director, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Vice Chair
ROBERT E. SKINNER, JR., Transportation Research Board, Executive Director
VICTORIA A. ARROYO, Executive Director, Georgetown University Climate Center, Assistant Dean, Centers and Institutes, Professor from Practice, and Environmental Law Program Director, Georgetown Law, Washington, D.C.
SCOTT E. BENNETT, Director, Arkansas State Highway and Transportation Department, Little Rock
JAMES M. CRITES, Executive Vice President of Operations, Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, Texas
MALCOLM DOUGHERTY, Director, California Department of Transportation, Madera
A. STEWART FOTHERINGHAM, Professor, University of St. Andrews, United Kingdom
JOHN S. HALIKOWSKI, Director, Arizona Department of Transportation, Phoenix
MICHAEL W. HANCOCK, Secretary, Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, Frankfort
SUSAN HANSON, Distinguished University Professor Emerita, School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts
STEVE HEMINGER, Executive Director, Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Oakland, California
CHRIS T. HENDRICKSON, Duquesne Light Professor of Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
JEFFREY D. HOLT, Managing Director, Bank of Montreal Capital Markets, and Chairman, Utah Transportation Commission, Huntsville, Utah
GARY P. LAGRANGE, President and CEO, Port of New Orleans, Louisiana
MICHAEL P. LEWIS, Director, Rhode Island Department of Transportation, Providence
JOAN MCDONALD, Commissioner, New York State Department of Transportation, Albany
ABBAS MOHADDES, President and Chief Executive Officer, ITERIS, Inc., Santa Ana, California
DONALD A. OSTERBERG, Senior Vice President, Safety and Security, Schneider National, Inc., Green Bay, Wisconsin
STEVE PALMER, Vice President of Transportation (retired), Lowe’s Companies, Inc., Mooresville, North Carolina
HENRY G. (GERRY) SCHWARTZ, JR., Chairman (retired), Jacobs/Sverdrup Civil, Inc., St. Louis, Missouri
KUMARES C. SINHA, Olson Distinguished Professor of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
GARY C. THOMAS, President and Executive Director, Dallas Area Rapid Transit, Dallas, Texas
PAUL TROMBINO, Director, Iowa Department of Transportation, Ames
PHILLIP A. WASHINGTON, General Manager, Denver Regional Council of Governments, Denver, Colorado
_____________
1 Membership as of October 2014.
This page intentionally left blank.
Preface
The plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) holds much promise—from reducing dependence on imported petroleum to decreasing greenhouse gas emissions to improving urban air quality. However, there are many barriers to its mainstream adoption regardless of incentives and enticing promises to solve difficult problems. Such vehicles have some limitations owing to current battery technology, such as restricted electric driving range and the long times required for battery charging. Furthermore, they cost more than conventional vehicles and require an infrastructure for charging the battery. Given those concerns, the U.S. Congress asked the Department of Energy to commission a study by the National Research Council (NRC) that would investigate the barriers and recommend ways to overcome them.
In this final comprehensive report, the Committee on Overcoming Barriers to Electric-Vehicle Deployment first discusses the current characteristics of PEVs and charging technologies. It then briefly reviews the market-development process, presents consumer demographics and attitudes toward PEVs, and discusses the implications of that information and other factors on PEV adoption and diffusion. The committee next explores how federal, state, and local governments and their various administrative arms can be more supportive and implement policies to sustain beneficial strategies for PEV deployment. It then provides an in-depth discussion of the PEV charging-infrastructure needs and evaluates the implications of PEV deployment on the electricity sector. Finally, the committee discusses incentives for adopting PEVs.
The current report has been reviewed in draft form by persons chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC Report Review Committee. The purpose of the independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards of objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following people for their review of this report:
Ron Adner, Dartmouth College,
William F. Brinkman, NAS, Princeton University,
Yet-Ming Chiang, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
George Eads, Charles River Associates,
Gregory A. Franklin, University of Alabama at Birmingham,
John D. Graham, Indiana University,
Christopher T. Hendrickson, NAE, Carnegie Mellon University,
Jeremy J. Michalek, Carnegie Mellon University,
John O’Dell, Edmunds.com,
Margo Tsirigotis Oge, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (retired),
Karl Popham, Austin Energy, and
Mike Tamor, Ford Motor Company.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of the report was overseen by the review coordinator, Maxine Savitz, NAE, Honeywell Inc. (retired), and the review monitor, M. Granger Morgan, NAS, Carnegie Mellon University. Appointed by NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of the report rests entirely with the committee and the institution. The committee gratefully acknowledges the following for their presentations during open sessions of the committee meetings:
Ali Ahmed, Cisco Systems, Inc.,
Marcus Alexander, Electric Power Research Institute,
Menahem Anderman, Advanced Automotive Batteries,
Greg Brown, Serra Chevrolet,
Allison Carr, Houston-Galveston Area Clean Cities Coalition,
William P. Chernicoff, Toyota Motors North America, Inc.,
Mike Cully, Car2Go,
Tammy Darvish, DARCARS Automotive Group,
Patrick B. Davis, U.S. Department of Energy,
Katie Drye, Advanced Energy,
Rick Durst, Portland General Electric,
Alexander Edwards, Strategic Vision,
James Francfort, Idaho National Laboratory,
Linda Gaines, Argonne National Laboratory,
Camron Gorguinpour, U.S. Department of Defense,
David Greene, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
Doug Greenhaus, National Automobile Dealers Association,
Britta K. Gross, General Motors,
Jonna Hamilton, Electrification Coalition,
Steve Hanson, Frito-Lay,
Jack Hidary, Hertz,
John H. Holmes, San Diego Gas and Electric,
Dana Jennings, Lynda.com, Inc.,
Donald Karner, ECOtality North America,
Elise Keddie, California Air Resources Board,
Ed Kim, AutoPacific,
Neil Kopit, Criswell Automotive,
Michael Krauthamer, eVgo,
Richard Lowenthal, ChargePoint,
Brewster McCracken, Pecan Street Inc.,
John Miller, JNJ Miller plc,
Russ Musgrove, FedEx Express,
Michael Nicholas, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis,
Nick Nigro, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions,
Sarah Olexsak, U.S. Department of Energy,
John Rhow, Kleiner Perkins,
Paul Scott, Downtown Los Angeles Nissan,
Chuck Shulock, Shulock Consulting,
Lee Slezak, U.S. Department of Energy,
John Smart, Idaho National Laboratory,
Suresh Sriramulu, TIAX LLC,
Mark Sylvia, Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources,
Mike Tamor, Ford Motor Company,
Joseph Thompson, Nissan,
Chris Travell, Maritz Research,
Jacob Ward, U.S. Department of Energy,
Jason Wolf, Better Place, and
Tracy Woodard, Nissan.
The committee also wishes to express its gratitude to Tomohisa Maruyama, Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, Tokyo, Japan, and Sumiyo Hirano, Next Generation Vehicle Promotion Center, Tokyo, Japan, for arranging an informative visit to Japan and accompanying the members as they traveled through Japan. The committee also wishes to thank the following for providing valuable information and extending hospitality to the committee during its visits to Germany, Japan, The Netherlands, and Texas:
Austin Energy, Austin, Texas,
Berlin Agency for Electric Mobility (eMO), Berlin, Germany,
Charging Network Development Organization, Tokyo, Japan,
Climate Change Policy Headquarters, City of Yokohama,
Federal Government Joint Unit for Electric Mobility (GGEMO), Berlin, Germany,
German Institute for Transportation Research (DLR), Berlin, Germany,
Innovation Centre for Mobility and Societal Change, Berlin, Germany,
Japan Charge Network, Co., Kanagawa, Japan,
Kanagawa Prefectural Government, Kanagawa, Japan,
Kyoto Prefectural Government, Kyoto, Japan,
Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, Tokyo, Japan,
Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment and Netherlands School of Public Administration, The Hague, The Netherlands,
MRA-Elektrisch, Amsterdam, The Netherlands,
Nissan Motor Co., Yokohama, Japan,
NRG eVgo, Houston, Texas,
Okayama Vehicle Engineering Center, Okayama, Japan,
Osaka Prefectural Government, Osaka, Japan,
Pecan Street Research Institute, Austin, Texas,
Technical University of Eindhoven and BrabantStad, Eindhoven, The Netherlands,
Tesla, The Netherlands,
Tokyo Electric Power Company, Kanagawa, Japan,
Urban Development Group, City of Rotterdam, The Netherlands, and
Vattenfall, Berlin, Germany.
The committee is also grateful for the assistance of the NRC staff in preparing this report. Staff members who contributed to the effort are Ellen Mantus and K. John Holmes, Project Codirectors; James Zucchetto, Director of the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems; Joseph Morris, Senior Program Officer for the TRB; Liz Fikre, senior editor; Michelle Schwalbe, Program Officer; Elizabeth Zeitler, Associate Program Officer, and Ivory Clarke and Linda Casola, Senior Program Assistants.
I especially thank the members of the committee for their efforts throughout the development of this report.
John G. Kassakian, Chair
Committee on Overcoming Barriers
to Electric-Vehicle Deployment
Contents
The Plug-in Electric Vehicle and Current Sales
Plug-in Electric Vehicles: Benefits and Trade-offs
The Committee’s Approach to Its Task
2 PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND CHARGING TECHNOLOGIES
Types of Plug-in Electric Vehicles
Relative Costs of Plug-in Electric and ICE Vehicles
Vehicle Charging and Charging Options
3 UNDERSTANDING THE CUSTOMER PURCHASE AND MARKET DEVELOPMENT PROCESS FOR PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Understanding and Predicting the Adoption of New Technologies
Demographics and Implications for Adoption and Diffusion of Vehicles
The Mainstream Consumer and Possible Barriers to Their Adoption of Plug-in Electric Vehicles
Vehicle Dealerships: A Potential Source of Information?
Strategies to Overcome Barriers to Deployment of Plug-in Electric Vehicles
4 GOVERNMENT SUPPORT FOR DEPLOYMENT OF PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Federal Government Research Funding to Support Deployment of Plug-in Electric Vehicles
Institutional Support for Promoting Plug-in Electric Vehicle Readiness
Transportation Taxation and Financing Issues Related to Plug-in Electric Vehicles
Streamlining Codes, Permits, and Regulations
Ancillary Institutional Issues Related to Support for Plug-in Electric Vehicles
5 CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE FOR PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES
6 IMPLICATIONS OF PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES FOR THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR
The Physical and Economic Structure of the Electricity Sector
Physical Constraints in the Distribution Infrastructure
Potential Economic Constraints or Impediments within the Delivery System
Electricity Sector Regulatory Issues for Operating a Public Charging Station
7 INCENTIVES FOR THE DEPLOYMENT OF PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Vehicle Price and Cost of Ownership
Price and Cost Competitiveness of Plug-in Electric Vehicles
Possibilities for Declines in Production Costs for Plug-in Electric Vehicles
Past Incentives on Other Alternative Vehicles and Fuels
A BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION ON THE COMMITTEE ON OVERCOMING BARRIERS TO ELECTRIC-VEHICLE DEPLOYMENT
BOXES, FIGURES, AND TABLES
BOXES
3-1 Calculating Electricity or Fuel Costs for Plug-in Electric and Other Vehicles
5-1 Some Hypothetical Economics for Providers of Public Charging
7-1 Derivation of Petroleum Equivalent for a Battery Electric Vehicle
FIGURES
1-1 U.S. BEV monthly sales data from 2010 to 2014
1-2 U.S. PHEV monthly sales data from 2010 to 2014
1-3 World PEV sales in 2012, 2013, and 2014
1-5 Projected annual light-duty PEV sales as a percentage of total light-duty vehicle sales
2-1 The volume energy density and the mass energy density for various battery types
2-3 Effect of ambient temperature on battery capacity on a 20 kWh battery in a PHEV
2-4 Change in the sales price of NiMH, Li-ion, and NiCd battery cells from 1999 to 2012
2-8 Four plugs and control protocols are now being used for DC fast charging
2-9 DC fast charging a Nissan Leaf
2-10 As of February 2015, Tesla had installed 190 units in the United States
3-2 Distribution of adopter categories
3-3 Women’s rate of participation in the markets for all vehicles and for PEVs
3-4 Projected 2014 light-duty PEV volume in the 100 largest MSAs
3-5 Worldwide growth of car sharing in terms of vehicles and members
3-7 Fleet sales for passenger vehicles for 2012 by fleet purchase agency
4-1 Corporate Average Fuel Economy requirements by year
4-2 Sources of revenue for the federal Highway Trust Fund, FY 2010
4-3 U.S. annual light-duty fuel consumption and VMT
4-4 Annual transportation-related taxes paid by Washington state drivers
4-5 Historic and forecast gasoline-tax revenue for Washington state, FY 1990 to FY 2040
4-6 PEV-specific measures for transportation funding
6-1 U.S. electricity demand growth, 1950-2040
6-2 Schematic of U.S. electric power delivery system
6-3 Hourly demand for electricity at a substation in a residential distribution system
6-4 Residential charging behavior in NES and PG&E service territories, as measured in the EV Project
6-5 States that have regulations regarding who can own or operate a PEV charging station
7-1 Japan’s clean energy vehicles promotion program
7-2 U.S. HEV and PEV sales overlaid with U.S. gasoline prices
TABLES
S-1 Four Classes of Plug-in Electric Vehicles
2-1 Definitions and Examples of the Four Types of Plug-in Electric Vehicles
2-2 Properties of Lithium-Ion Batteries in Four Plug-in Electric Vehicles on the U.S. Market
2-3 Estimates of Dollars per Kilowatt-hour for a 25 kWh Battery
2-4 Summary of Estimated Costs of Total Energy from Various Sources (2013 U.S. $/kWh)
3-1 Categories and Descriptions of Adopters
3-2 Comparison of New BEV Buyers, PHEV Buyers, and ICE-Vehicle Buyers
3-3 Comparison of All New-Vehicle Buyers to Buyers of Specific Plug-in Electric Vehicles
3-4 Factors That Affect Adoption and Diffusion of Innovation
3-5 Consumer Questions Related to Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) Ownership
3-6 Ratings of Dealer Knowledge about Various Topics
3-7 Websites with Information on Plug-in Electric Vehicles
3-8 Information Resources for Fleet Managers
4-1 Factors Determining PEV Readiness and Organizations Involved
4-3 Types of Equity and Examples in the Transportation Tax System
4-4 Variation in Residential Electric Permit Fees by City or State
5-1 Effect of Charging-Infrastructure Categories on Mainstream PEV Owners by PEV Class
5-2 Charging Patterns for Nissan Leafs and Chevrolet Volts
5-3 Entities That Might Have an Incentive to Install Each Charging Infrastructure Category
5-4 Costs of Installing Public DC Fast-Charging Stations for the West Coast Electric Highway Project
6-1 Definitions, Advantages, and Disadvantages of Various Types of Electric Rates
7-2 Incentives for Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) by Country and State