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Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles (2015)

Chapter: Appendix U: SI Engine Pathway NHTSA Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs and Total Costs

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix U: SI Engine Pathway NHTSA Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs and Total Costs." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×

Appendix U

SI Engine Pathway – NHTSA Estimates – Direct Manufacturing Costs and Total Costs

TABLE U.1 Midsize Car with I4 Spark Ignition Engine Pathway Example Using NHTSA’s Estimate and Showing Direct Manufacturing Costs for 2017, 2020, and 2025 MYs (2010 dollars)

SI Engine Pathway - NHTSA Estimates - Direct Manufacturing Costs
              NHTSA Cost Estimates
Possible Technologies NHTSA % FC Reduction FC Reduction Multiplier Cumulative FC Reduction Multiplier FC (gal/100mi) Cumulative Percent FC Reduction Multiplier Unadj. Combined MPG 2017 2020 2025 2017 Cost/Percent FC Reduction ($/%) Cumulative Cost
Null Vehiclea   1.000 1.000 3.240 0.0% 30.9         0
Intake Cam Phasing
ICP
2.6% 0.974 0.974 3.156 2.6% 31.7 $37 $35 $31 $14.23 $31
Dual Cam Phasing
DCP (vs. ICP)
2.5% 0.975 0.950 3.077 5.0% 32.5b $31 $29 $27 $12.40 $58
2008 Example Vehicle
Low Rolling Resistance Tires - 1
ROLL1
1.9% 0.981 0.932 3.018 6.8% 33.1 $5 $5 $5 $2.63 $63
Low Friction Lubricants - 1
LUB1
0.7% 0.993 0.925 2.997 7.5% 33.4 $3 $3 $3 $4.29 $66
6 Speed Automatic Transmissionb
6 SP AT with Improved Internals
IATC
1.6% 0.984 0.910 2.949 9.0% 33.9 $37 $34 $31 $23.13 $97
Aero Drag Reduction - 1
AERO1
2.3% 0.977 0.889 2.882 11.1% 34.7 $39 $37 $33 $16.96 $130
Engine Friction Reduction - 1
EFR1
2.6% 0.974 0.866 2.807 13.4% 35.6 $48 $48 $48 $18.46 $178
Improved Accessories - 1
IACC1
1.2% 0.988 0.856 2.773 14.4% 36.1 $71 $69 $60 $59.17 $238
Electric Power Steering
EPS
1.3% 0.987 0.845 2.737 15.5% 36.5 $87 $82 $74 $66.92 $312
2016 Target 36.6 mpg
Mass Reduction - 1
MR1 (1.5%) (-53 lbs)
0.5% 0.995 0.840 2.723 16.0% 36.7 $3 $3 $3 $6.00 $315
Discrete Variable Valve Lift
DVVL
3.6% 0.964 0.810 2.625 19.0% 38.1 $116 $109 $99 $32.22 $414
Mass Reduction - 2
MR2 (3.5%) (-70 lbs = 123 lbs-53 lbs)
0.7% 0.993 0.805 2.607 19.5% 38.4 $27 $25 $22 $38.57 $436
Suggested Citation:"Appendix U: SI Engine Pathway NHTSA Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs and Total Costs." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×
SI Engine Pathway - NHTSA Estimates - Direct Manufacturing Costs
              NHTSA Cost Estimates
Possible Technologies NHTSA % FC Reduction FC Reduction Multiplier Cumulative FC Reduction Multiplier FC (gal/100mi) Cumulative Percent FC Reduction Multiplier Unadj. Combined MPG 2017 2020 2025 2017 Cost/Percent FC Reduction ($/%) Cumulative Cost
Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection
SGDI (Required for TRBDS)
1.5% 0.985 0.792 2.568 20.8% 38.9 $192 $181 $164 $128.00 $600
Turbocharging & Downsizing - 1
(I-4 to I-4)
TRBDS1 33% DS 18 bar BMEP
8.3% 0.917 0.727 2.355 27.3% 42.5 $288 $271 $245 $34.70 $845
Turbocharging & Downsizing - 2
(I-4 to I-3)
TRBDS2 50% DS 24 bar BMEP
3.5% 0.965 0.701 2.272 29.9% 44.0 –$92 –$89 –$82 –$26.29 $763
8 Speed Automatic Transmissionb
8 SP AT
3.9% 0.961 0.674 2.184 32.6% 45.8 $56 $53 $47 $14.36 $810
Shift Optimizerb
SHFTOPT
2.8% 0.972 0.655 2.122 34.5% 47.1 $1 $1 $0 $0.36 $810
Improved Accessories - 2
IAAC2
2.4% 0.976 0.639 2.071 36.1% 48.3 $43 $40 $37 $17.92 $847
Low Rolling Resistance Tires
ROLL2
2.0% 0.980 0.627 2.030 37.3% 49.3 $58 $46 $31 $29.00 $878
Aero Drag Reduction - 2
AERO2
2.5% 0.975 0.611 1.979 38.9% 50.5 $117 $110 $100 $46.80 $978
High Efficiency Transmission
HETRANS
2.7% 0.973 0.594 1.926 40.6% 51.9 $202 $184 $163 $74.81 $1,141
Low Friction Lub - 2 & Engine Friction
Red - 2
LUB2_EFR2
1.3% 0.987 0.587 1.901 41.3% 52.6 $51 $51 $51 $39.23 $1,192
Cooled EGR - 1
CEGR1 50% DS 24 bar BMEP
3.5% 0.965 0.566 1.834 43.4% 54.5 $212 $199 $180 $60.57 $1,372
2025 Target 54.2 mpg
Stop-Start
SS
2.1% 0.979 0.554 1.796 44.6% 55.7 $287 $261 $225 $136.67 $1,597
Continuously Variable Valve Lift
CVVL (vs. DVVL)
1.0% 0.990 0.549 1.778 45.1% 56.2 $58 $55 $49 $58.00 $1,646
Cylinder Deactivation
DEACD
0.0% 1.000 0.549 1.778 45.1% 56.2         $1,646
Cooled EGR - 2 (I-3 to I-3)
CEGR2 56% DS 27 bar BMEP
1.4% 0.986 0.541 1.753 45.9% 57.0 $364 $343 $310 $260.00 $1,956
Totals
Relative to Null Vehicle 45.9% 0.541         $2,341 $2,185 $1,956 $51.00  
Null Vehicle - 2008 MY Vehicle 5.0% 0.950         $68 $64 $58 $13.51  
2008 MY Vehicle - 2016 MY 11.1% 0.889         $290 $278 $254    
2017 MY- 2025 MY 33.0% 0.670         $1,274 $1,184 $1,060 $38.63  
Beyond 2025 MY 4.4% 0.956         $709 $659 $584 $159.83  

a Null vehicle: I4, DOHC, naturally aspirated, 4 valves/cylinder PFI fixed valve timing and 4 speed AT.

b An example midsize car in 2008 was 46.64 sq ft and had a fuel economy of 32.5 mpg. Its standard for MY2016 would be 36.6 mpg and for MY2025 would be 54.2 mpg.

c These technologies have transmission synergies included.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix U: SI Engine Pathway NHTSA Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs and Total Costs." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×

TABLE U.2 Midsize Car with I4 Spark Ignition Engine Pathway Example Using NHTSA’s Estimates and Showing Total Cost Estimates for 2017, 2020, and 2025 MYs (2010 dollars)

SI Engine Pathway - NHTSA Estimates - Total Costs
              NHTSA Cost Estimates
Possible Technologies NHTSA % FC Reduction FC Reduction Multiplier Cumulative FC Reduction Multiplier FC (gal/100mi) Cumulative Percent FC Reduction Multiplier Unadj. Combined MPG 2017 2020 2025 2017 Cost/Percent FC Reduction ($/%) Cumulative Cost
Intake Cam Phasing
ICP
2.6% 0.974 0.974 3.156 2.6% 31.7 $46 $42 $39 $17.69 $39
Dual Cam Phasing
DCP (vs. ICP)
2.5% 0.975 0.950 3.077 5.0% 32.5b $49 $42 $39 $19.60 $78
2008 Example Vehicle
Low Rolling Resistance Tires - 1
ROLL1
1.9% 0.981 0.932 3.018 6.8% 33.1 $7 $6 $6 $3.68 $84
Low Friction Lubricants - 1
LUB1
0.7% 0.993 0.925 2.997 7.5% 33.4 $4 $4 $4 $5.74 $88
6 Speed Automatic Transmissionc
6 SP AT with Improved Internals IATC
1.6% 0.984 0.910 2.949 9.0% 33.9 $54 $48 $44 $33.75 $132
Aero Drag Reduction - 1
AERO1
2.3% 0.977 0.889 2.882 11.1% 34.7 $49 $45 $41 $21.27 $173
Engine Friction Reduction - 1
EFR1
2.6% 0.974 0.866 2.807 13.4% 35.6 $59 $57 $57 $22.69 $230
Improved Accessories - 1
IACC1
1.2% 0.988 0.856 2.773 14.4% 36.1 $89 $81 $75 $74.16 $305
Electric Power Steering
EPS
1.3% 0.987 0.845 2.737 15.5% 36.5 $109 $100 $92 $84.17 $397
2016 Target 36.6 mpg
Mass Reduction - 1
MR1 (1.5%) (-53 lbs)
0.5% 0.995 0.840 2.723 16.0% 36.7 $4 $3 $3 $8.00 $400
Discrete Variable Valve Lift
DVVL
3.6% 0.964 0.810 2.625 19.0% 38.1 $163 $144 $133 $45.28 $533
Mass Reduction - 2
MR2 (3.5%) (-70 lbs = 123 lbs-53 lbs)
0.7% 0.993 0.805 2.607 19.5% 38.4 $34 $30 $27 $48.57 $560
Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection
SGDI (Required for TRBDS)
1.5% 0.985 0.792 2.568 20.8% 38.9 $277 $244 $226 $184.67 $786
Turbocharging & Downsizing - 1 (I-4 to I-4)
TRBDS1 33% DS 18 bar BMEP
8.3% 0.917 0.727 2.355 27.3% 42.5 $482 $415 $388 $58.07 $1,174
Turbocharging & Downsizing - 2 (I-4 to I-3)
TRBDS2 50% DS 24 bar BMEP
3.5% 0.965 0.701 2.272 29.9% 44.0 $26 $19 $5 $7.43 $1,179
8 Speed Automatic Transmissionc
8 SP AT
3.9% 0.961 0.674 2.184 32.6% 45.8 $80 $71 $66 $20.51 $1,245
Shift Optimizerc
SHFTOPT
2.8% 0.972 0.655 2.122 34.5% 47.1 $2 $2 $0 $0.71 $1,245
Improved Accessories - 2
IAAC2
2.4% 0.976 0.639 2.071 36.1% 48.3 $54 $50 $45 $22.57 $1,290
Low Rolling Resistance Tires
ROLL2
2.0% 0.980 0.627 2.030 37.3% 49.3 $66 $54 $38 $33.00 $1,328
Aero Drag Reduction - 2
AERO2
2.5% 0.975 0.611 1.979 38.9% 50.5 $164 $157 $135 $65.78 $1,463
High Efficiency Transmission
HETRANS
2.7% 0.973 0.594 1.926 40.6% 51.9 $251 $233 $202 $92.91 $1,665
Suggested Citation:"Appendix U: SI Engine Pathway NHTSA Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs and Total Costs." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×
SI Engine Pathway - NHTSA Estimates - Total Costs
              NHTSA Cost Estimates
Possible Technologies NHTSA % FC Reduction FC Reduction Multiplier Cumulative FC Reduction Multiplier FC (gal/100mi) Cumulative Percent FC Reduction Multiplier Unadj. Combined MPG 2017 2020 2025 2017 Cost/Percent FC Reduction ($/%) Cumulative Cost
Low Friction Lub - 2 & Engine Friction
Red - 2
LUB2_EFR2
1.3% 0.987 0.587 1.901 41.3% 52.6 $63 $65 $60 $48.46 $1,725
Cooled EGR - 1
CEGR1 50% DS 24 bar BMEP
3.5% 0.965 0.566 1.834 43.4% 54.5 $305 $292 $249 $87.14 $1,974
2025 Target 54.2 mpg
Stop-Start
SS
2.1% 0.979 0.554 1.796 44.6% 55.7 $401 $346 $308 $190.95 $2,282
Continuously Variable Valve Lift
CVVL (vs. DVVL)
1.0% 0.990 0.549 1.778 45.1% 56.2 $81 $72 $67 $81.00 $2,349
Cylinder Deactivation
DEACD
0.0% 1.000 0.549 1.778 45.1% 56.2         $2,349
Cooled EGR - 2 (I-3 to I-3)
CEGR2 56% DS 27 bar BMEP
1.4% 0.986 0.541 1.753 45.9% 57.0 $525 $503 $429 $374.82 $2,778
Totals
Relative to Null Vehicle 45.9% 0.541         $3,445 $3,125 $2,778 $75.05  
Null Vehicle - 2008 MY Vehicle 5.0% 0.950         $95 $84 $78 $18.87  
2008 MY Vehicle - 2016 MY 11.1% 0.889         $371 $341 $319    
2017 MY- 2025 MY 33.0% 0.670         $1,971 $1,779 $1,577 $59.78  
Beyond 2025 MY 4.4% 0.956         $1,007 $921 $804 $226.96  

a Null vehicle: I4, DOHC, naturally aspirated, 4 valves/cylinder PFI fixed valve timing and 4 speed AT.

b An example midsize car in 2008 was 46.64 sq ft and had a fuel economy of 32.5 mpg. Its standard for MY2016 would be 36.6 mpg and for MY2025 would be 54.2 mpg.

c These technologies have transmission synergies included.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix U: SI Engine Pathway NHTSA Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs and Total Costs." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×
Page 422
Suggested Citation:"Appendix U: SI Engine Pathway NHTSA Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs and Total Costs." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×
Page 423
Suggested Citation:"Appendix U: SI Engine Pathway NHTSA Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs and Total Costs." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×
Page 424
Suggested Citation:"Appendix U: SI Engine Pathway NHTSA Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs and Total Costs." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×
Page 425
Next: Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger »
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The light-duty vehicle fleet is expected to undergo substantial technological changes over the next several decades. New powertrain designs, alternative fuels, advanced materials and significant changes to the vehicle body are being driven by increasingly stringent fuel economy and greenhouse gas emission standards. By the end of the next decade, cars and light-duty trucks will be more fuel efficient, weigh less, emit less air pollutants, have more safety features, and will be more expensive to purchase relative to current vehicles. Though the gasoline-powered spark ignition engine will continue to be the dominant powertrain configuration even through 2030, such vehicles will be equipped with advanced technologies, materials, electronics and controls, and aerodynamics. And by 2030, the deployment of alternative methods to propel and fuel vehicles and alternative modes of transportation, including autonomous vehicles, will be well underway. What are these new technologies - how will they work, and will some technologies be more effective than others?

Written to inform The United States Department of Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards, this new report from the National Research Council is a technical evaluation of costs, benefits, and implementation issues of fuel reduction technologies for next-generation light-duty vehicles. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles estimates the cost, potential efficiency improvements, and barriers to commercial deployment of technologies that might be employed from 2020 to 2030. This report describes these promising technologies and makes recommendations for their inclusion on the list of technologies applicable for the 2017-2025 CAFE standards.

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