National Academies Press: OpenBook

Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles (2015)

Chapter: Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger

« Previous: Appendix U: SI Engine Pathway NHTSA Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs and Total Costs
Suggested Citation:"Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×

Appendix V

SI Engine Pathway – NRC Estimates – Direct Manufacturing Costs – Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger

TABLE V.1 Alternative Midsize Car with SI Engine Pathway with High Compression Ratio with Exhaust Scavenging Technology Showing NRC Low Estimates for 2017, 2020, and 2025 (2010 dollars)

Midsize Car with SI Engine Pathway - NRC Low Most Likely Estimates - Direct Manufacturing Costs
Alternative Pathway - High CR with Exhaust Scavenging
Low Most Likely Cost Estimates Paired with High Most Likely Effectiveness Estimates
Possible Technologies % FC Reduction (%) FC Reduction Multiplier Cumulative FC Reduction Multiplier FC (gal/100 mi) Cumulative Percent FC Reduction Unadjusted Combined (mpg) 2017 Cost Estimates 2020 Cost Estimates 2025 Cost Estimates 2017 Cost/Percent FC ($/%)
Null Vehiclea   1.000 1.000 3.240 0.0% 30.9        
Intake Cam Phasing
ICP
2.6% 0.974 0.974 3.156 2.6% 31.7 $37 $35 $31 $14.23
Dual Cam Phasing
DCP (vs. ICP)
2.5% 0.975 0.950 3.077 5.0% 32.5b $31 $29 $27 $12.40
2008 Example Vehicle
Low Rolling Resistance Tires - 1
ROLL1
1.9% 0.981 0.932 3.018 6.8% 33.1 $5 $5 $5 $2.63
Low Friction Lubricants - 1
LUB1
0.7% 0.993 0.925 2.997 7.5% 33.4 $3 $3 $3 $4.29
6 Speed Automatic Transmissionc
6 SP AT with Improved Internals IATC
1.6% 0.984 0.910 2.949 9.0% 33.9 $37 $34 $31 $23.13
Aero Drag Reduction - 1
AERO1
2.3% 0.977 0.889 2.882 11.1% 34.7 $39 $37 $33 $16.96
Engine Friction Reduction - 1
EFR1
2.6% 0.974 0.866 2.807 13.4% 35.6 $48 $48 $48 $18.46
Improved Accessories - 1
IACC1
1.2% 0.988 0.856 2.773 14.4% 36.1 $71 $69 $60 $59.17
Electric Power Steering
EPS
1.3% 0.987 0.845 2.737 15.5% 36.5 $87 $82 $74 $66.92
Mass Reduction - 2.5%
MR2.5 (-87.5 lbs)
0.8% 0.992 0.838 2.715 16.2% 36.8 $0 $0 $0 $0.00
2016 Target 36.6 mpg
Discrete Variable Valve Lift
DVVL
3.6% 0.964 0.808 2.617 19.2% 38.2 $116 $109 $99 $32.22
Mass Reduction - 2.5%-5.0%
MR5-MR2.5 (-87.5 lbs)
0.8% 0.992 0.801 2.596 19.9% 38.5 $0 $0 $0 $0.00
Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection
SGDI (Required for TRBDS)
1.5% 0.985 0.789 2.557 21.1% 39.1 $192 $181 $164 $128.00
Suggested Citation:"Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×
Possible Technologies % FC Reduction (%) FC Reduction Multiplier Cumulative FC Reduction Multiplier FC (gal/100 mi) Cumulative Percent FC Reduction Unadjusted Combined (mpg) 2017 Cost Estimates 2020 Cost Estimates 2025 Cost Estimates 2017 Cost/Percent FC ($/%)
High Compression Ratio- Exh Scavenging
EXS
6.0% 0.940 0.742 2.404 25.8% 41.6 $250 $250 $250 $41.67
Turbocharging & Downsizing - 1 (I-4 to I-4)
TRBDS1 33% DS 18 bar
BMEP
8.3% 0.917 0.680 2.204 32.0% 45.4 $288 $271 $245 $34.70
Turbocharging & Downsizing - 2 (I-4 to I-3)
TRBDS2 50% DS 24 bar
BMEP
3.5% 0.965 0.657 2.127 34.3% 47.0 -$92 -$89 -$82 -$26.29
8 Speed Automatic Transmissionc
8 SP AT
1.7% 0.983 0.645 2.091 35.5% 47.8 $56 $52 $47 $32.94
Shift Optimizerc
SHFTOPT
0.7% 0.993 0.641 2.076 35.9% 48.2 $26 $24 $22 $37.14
Improved Accessories - 2
IAAC2
2.4% 0.976 0.625 2.027 37.5% 49.3 $43 $40 $37 $17.92
Low Rolling Resistance Tires
ROLL2
2.0% 0.980 0.613 1.986 38.7% 50.4 $58 $46 $31 $29.00
Aero Drag Reduction - 2
AERO2
2.5% 0.975 0.598 1.936 40.2% 51.6 $117 $110 $100 $46.80
Mass Reduction - 5.0%-10.0%
MR10-MR5 (-175 lbs)
4.6% 0.954 0.570 1.847 43.0% 54.1 $154 $151 $151 $33.48
Low Friction Lub - 2 & Engine Friction Red - 2
LUB2_EFR2
1.3% 0.987 0.563 1.823 43.7% 54.8 $51 $51 $51 $39.23
2025 Target 54.2 mpg
Continuously Variable Valve Lift
CVVL (vs. DVVL)
1.0% 0.990 0.557 1.805 44.3% 55.4 $58 $55 $49 $58.00
High Efficiency Transmission
HEG1 & 2
5.4% 0.946 0.527 1.708 47.3% 58.6 $314 $296 $267 $58.15
Cooled EGR - 1
CEGR1 50% DS 24 bar
BMEP
3.5% 0.965 0.509 1.648 49.1% 60.7 $212 $199 $180 $60.57
Cylinder Deactivation
DEACD
0.0% 1.000 0.509 1.648 49.1% 60.7        
Cooled EGR - 2 (I-3 to I-3)
CEGR2 56% DS 27 bar
BMEP
1.4% 0.986 0.501 1.625 49.9% 61.5 $364 $343 $310 $260.00
Totals
Relative to Null Vehicle 49.9% 0.501         $2,565 $2,431 $2,233 $51.45
Null Vehicle - 2008 MY Vehicle 5.0% 0.950         $68 $64 $58 $13.51
2008 MY Vehicle - 2016 MY 11.8% 0.882         $290 $278 $254  
2017 MY- 2025 MY 32.8% 0.672         $1,259 $1,196 $1,115 $38.34
Beyond 2025 MY 10.9% 0.891         $948 $893 $806 $87.06

a Null vehicle: I4, DOHC, naturally aspirated, 4 valves/cylinder PFI fixed valve timing and 4 speed AT.

b An example midsize car in 2008 was 46.64 sq ft and had a fuel economy of 32.5 mpg. Its standard for MY2016 would be 36.6 mpg and for MY2025 would be 54.2 mpg.

c These technologies have transmission synergies included. Green highlighting indicates a technology order different than the NHTSA pathway, shown in Appendix S.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×

TABLE V.2 Alternative Midsize Car with SI Engine Pathway with High Compression Ratio with Exhaust Scavenging Technology Showing NRC High Estimates for 2017, 2020, and 2025 (2010 dollars)

Midsize Car with SI Engine Pathway - NRC High Most Likely Estimates - Direct Manufacturing Costs
Alternative Pathway - High CR with Exhaust Scavenging
High Most Likely Cost Estimates Paired with Low Most Likely Effectiveness Estimates
Possible Technologies % FC Reduction (%) FC Reduction Multiplier Cumulative FC Reduction Multiplier FC (gal/100 mi) Cumulative Percent FC Reduction Unadjusted Combined (mpg) 2017 Cost Estimates 2020 Cost Estimates 2025 Cost Estimates 2017 Cost/Percent FC ($/%)
Null Vehiclea   1.000 1.000 3.240 0.0% 30.9        
Intake Cam Phasing
ICP
2.6% 0.974 0.974 3.156 2.6% 31.7 $43 $41 $36 $16.54
Dual Cam Phasing
DCP (vs. ICP)
2.5% 0.975 0.950 3.077 5.0% 32.5b $35 $33 $31 $14.00
2008 Example Vehicle
Low Rolling Resistance Tires - 1
ROLL1
1.9% 0.981 0.932 3.018 6.8% 33.1 $5 $5 $5 $2.63
Low Friction Lubricants - 1
LUB1
0.7% 0.993 0.925 2.997 7.5% 33.4 $3 $3 $3 $4.29
6 Speed Automatic Transmissionc
6 SP AT with Improved Internals IATC
1.3% 0.987 0.913 2.958 8.7% 33.8 $37 $34 $31 $28.46
Aero Drag Reduction - 1
AERO1
2.3% 0.977 0.892 2.890 10.8% 34.6 $39 $37 $33 $16.96
Engine Friction Reduction - 1
EFR1
2.6% 0.974 0.869 2.815 13.1% 35.5 $48 $48 $48 $18.46
Improved Accessories - 1
IACC1
1.2% 0.988 0.858 2.781 14.2% 36.0 $71 $67 $60 $59.17
Electric Power Steering
EPS
1.3% 0.987 0.847 2.745 15.3% 36.4 $87 $82 $74 $66.92
Mass Reduction - 2.5%
MR2.5 (-87.5 lbs)
0.8% 0.992 0.841 2.723 15.9% 36.7 $22 $22 $22 $27.50
2016 Target 36.6 mpg
Discrete Variable Valve Lift
DVVL
3.6% 0.964 0.810 2.625 19.0% 38.1 $133 $125 $114 $36.94
Mass Reduction - 2.5%-5.0%
MR5-MR2.5 (-87.5 lbs)
0.8% 0.992 0.804 2.604 19.6% 38.4 $66 $66 $66 $82.50
Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection
SGDI (Required for TRBDS)
1.5% 0.985 0.792 2.565 20.8% 39.0 $192 $181 $164 $128.00
High Compression Ratio- Exh Scavenging
EXS
6.0% 0.940 0.744 2.411 25.6% 41.5 $250 $250 $250 $41.67
Turbocharging & Downsizing - 1
TRBDS1 33% DS 18 bar
BMEP
7.7% 0.923 0.687 2.226 31.3% 44.9 $331 $312 $282 $42.99
Turbocharging & Downsizing - 2
TRBDS2 50% DS 24 bar
BMEP
3.2% 0.968 0.665 2.154 33.5% 46.4 -$96 -$92 -$86 -$30.00
8 Speed Automatic Transmissionc
8 SP AT
1.3% 0.987 0.656 2.126 34.4% 47.0 $151 $126 $115 $116.15
Shift Optimizerc
SHFTOPT
0.3% 0.997 0.654 2.120 34.6% 47.2 $26 $24 $22 $86.67
Improved Accessories - 2
IAAC2
2.4% 0.976 0.639 2.069 36.1% 48.3 $43 $40 $37 $17.92
Low Rolling Resistance Tires
ROLL2
2.0% 0.980 0.626 2.028 37.4% 49.3 $58 $46 $31 $29.00
Suggested Citation:"Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×
Possible Technologies % FC Reduction (%) FC Reduction Multiplier Cumulative FC Reduction Multiplier FC (gal/100 mi) Cumulative Percent FC Reduction Unadjusted Combined (mpg) 2017 Cost Estimates 2020 Cost Estimates 2025 Cost Estimates 2017 Cost/Percent FC ($/%)
Aero Drag Reduction - 2
AERO2
2.5% 0.975 0.610 1.977 39.0% 50.6 $117 $110 $100 $46.80
Mass Reduction - 5%-10%
MR10-MR5 (-175 lbs)
4.6% 0.954 0.582 1.886 41.8% 53.0 $325 $322 $315 $70.65
Low Friction Lub - 2 & Engine Friction Red - 2
LUB2_EFR2
1.3% 0.987 0.575 1.862 42.5% 53.7 $51 $51 $51 $39.23
Cooled EGR - 1
CEGR1 50% DS 24 bar
BMEP
3.0% 0.970 0.557 1.806 44.3% 55.4 $212 $199 $180 $70.67
2025 Target 54.2 mpg
High Efficiency Transmission
HEG1 & 2
4.9% 0.951 0.530 1.717 47.0% 58.2 $314 $296 $267 $64.08
Continuously Variable Valve Lift
CVVL (vs. DVVL)
1.0% 0.990 0.525 1.700 47.5% 58.8 $67 $63 $56 $67.00
Cylinder Deactivation
DEACD
0.0% 1.000 0.525 1.700 47.5% 58.8        
Cooled EGR - 2
CEGR2 56% DS 27 bar
BMEP
1.4% 0.986 0.517 1.676 48.3% 59.7 $364 $343 $310 $260.00
Totals
Relative to Null Vehicle 48.3% 0.517         $2,994 $2,834 $2,617 $62.03
Null Vehicle - 2008 MY Vehicle 5.0% 0.950         $78 $74 $67 $15.49
2008 MY Vehicle - 2016 MY 11.5% 0.885         $312 $298 $276  
2017 MY- 2025 MY 33.7% 0.663         $1,859 $1,760 $1,641 $55.17
Beyond 2025 MY 7.2% 0.928         $745 $702 $633 $103.92

a Null vehicle: I4, DOHC, naturally aspirated, 4 valves/cylinder PFI fixed valve timing and 4 speed AT.

b An example midsize car in 2008 was 46.64 sq ft and had a fuel economy of 32.5 mpg. Its standard for MY2016 would be 36.6 mpg and for MY2025 would be 54.2 mpg.

c These technologies have transmission synergies included. Green highlighting indicates a technology order different than the NHTSA pathway, shown in Appendix S.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×

TABLE V.3 Alternative Midsize Car with SI Engine Pathway with EAVS Supercharger Technology Showing NRC Low Estimates for 2017, 2020, and 2025 (2010 dollars)

Midsize Car with SI Engine Pathway - NRC Low Most Likely Estimates - Direct Manufacturing Costs
Alternative Pathway - EAVS Supercharger

Low Most Likely Cost Estimates Paired with High Most Likely Effectiveness Estimates
Possible Technologies % FC Reduction FC Reduction Multiplier Cumulative FC Reduction Multiplier FC (gal/100 mi) Cumulative Percent FC Reduction Unadjusted Combined FE (mpg) 2017 Cost Estimates 2020 Cost Estimates 2025 Cost Estimates 2017 Cost/Percent FC ($/%)
Null Vehiclea   1.000 1.000 3.240 0.0% 30.9        
Intake Cam Phasing
ICP
2.6% 0.974 0.974 3.156 2.6% 31.7 $37 $35 $31 $14.23
Dual Cam Phasing
DCP (vs. ICP)
2.5% 0.975 0.950 3.077 5.0% 32.5b $31 $29 $27 $12.40
2008 Example Vehicle
Low Rolling Resistance Tires - 1
ROLL1
1.9% 0.981 0.932 3.018 6.8% 33.1 $5 $5 $5 $2.63
Low Friction Lubricants - 1
LUB1
0.7% 0.993 0.925 2.997 7.5% 33.4 $3 $3 $3 $4.29
6 Speed Automatic Transmissionc
6 SP AT with Improved Internals IATC
1.6% 0.984 0.910 2.949 9.0% 33.9 $37 $34 $31 $23.13
Aero Drag Reduction - 1
AERO1
2.3% 0.977 0.889 2.882 11.1% 34.7 $39 $37 $33 $16.96
Engine Friction Reduction - 1
EFR1
2.6% 0.974 0.866 2.807 13.4% 35.6 $48 $48 $48 $18.46
Electric Power Steering
EPS
1.3% 0.987 0.855 2.770 14.5% 36.1 $87 $82 $74 $66.92
Mass Reduction - 2.5%
MR2.5 (-87.5 lbs)
0.8% 0.992 0.848 2.748 15.2% 36.4 $0 $0 $0 $0.00
Discrete Variable Valve Lift
DVVL
3.6% 0.964 0.818 2.649 18.2% 37.7 $116 $109 $99 $32.22
2016 Target 36.6 mpg
Mass Reduction - 2.5%-5.0%
MR5-MR2.5 (-87.5 lbs)
0.8% 0.992 0.811 2.628 18.9% 38.1 $0 $0 $0 $0.00
Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection
SGDI (Required for TRBDS)
1.5% 0.985 0.799 2.588 20.1% 38.6 $192 $181 $164 $128.00
EAVS-Supercharger
EAVS-SC
26.0% 0.740 0.591 1.915 40.9% 52.2 $1,302 $1,302 $1,302 $50.08
8 Speed Automatic Transmissionc
8 SP AT
1.7% 0.983 0.581 1.883 41.9% 53.1 $56 $52 $47 $32.94
Shift Optimizerc
SHFTOPT
0.7% 0.993 0.577 1.870 42.3% 53.5 $26 $24 $22 $37.14
Low Rolling Resistance Tires
ROLL2
2.0% 0.980 0.566 1.832 43.4% 54.6 $58 $46 $31 $29.00
2025 Target 54.2 mpg
Aero Drag Reduction - 2
AERO2
2.5% 0.975 0.551 1.786 44.9% 56.0 $117 $110 $100 $46.80
Mass Reduction - 5.0%-10.0%
MR10-MR5 (-175 lbs)
4.6% 0.954 0.526 1.704 47.4% 58.7 $154 $151 $151 $33.48
Low Friction Lub - 2 & Engine Friction Red - 2
LUB2_EFR2
1.3% 0.987 0.519 1.682 48.1% 59.4 $51 $51 $51 $39.23
Continuously Variable Valve Lift
CVVL (vs. DVVL)
1.0% 0.990 0.514 1.665 48.6% 60.0 $58 $55 $49 $58.00
Suggested Citation:"Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×
Possible Technologies % FC Reduction FC Reduction Multiplier Cumulative FC Reduction Multiplier FC (gal/100 mi) Cumulative Percent FC Reduction Unadjusted Combined FE (mpg) 2017 Cost Estimates 2020 Cost Estimates 2025 Cost Estimates 2017 Cost/Percent FC ($/%)
High Efficiency Transmission
HEG1 & 2
5.4% 0.946 0.486 1.575 51.4% 63.5 $314 $296 $267 $58.15
Cooled EGR - 1
CEGR1 50% DS 24 bar BMEP
3.5% 0.965 0.469 1.520 53.1% 65.8 $212 $199 $180 $60.57
Cylinder Deactivation
DEACD
0.0% 1.000 0.469 1.520 53.1% 65.8        
Cooled EGR - 2 (I-3 to I-3)
CEGR2 56% DS 27 bar
BMEP
1.4% 0.986 0.463 1.499 53.7% 66.7 $364 $343 $310 $260.00
Totals
Relative to Null Vehicle 53.7% 0.463         $3,307 $3,192 $3,025 $61.54
Null Vehicle - 2008 MY Vehicle 5.0% 0.950         $68 $64 $58 $13.51
2008 MY Vehicle - 2016 MY 13.9% 0.861         $335 $318 $293  
2017 MY- 2025 MY 30.8% 0.692         $1,634 $1,605 $1,566 $53.00
Beyond 2025 MY 18.2% 0.818         $1,270 $1,205 $1,108 $69.81

a Null vehicle: I4, DOHC, naturally aspirated, 4 valves/cylinder PFI fixed valve timing and 4 speed AT.

b An example midsize car in 2008 was 46.64 sq ft and had a fuel economy of 32.5 mpg. Its standard for MY2016 would be 36.6 mpg and for MY2025 would be 54.2 mpg.

c These technologies have transmission synergies included. Green highlighting indicates a technology order different than the NHTSA pathway, shown in Appendix S.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×

TABLE V.4 Alternative Midsize Car with SI Engine Pathway with EAVS Supercharger Technology Showing NRC High Estimates for 2017, 2020, and 2025 (2010 dollars)

Midsize Car with SI Engine Pathway - NRC High Most Likely Estimates - Direct Manufacturing Costs
Alternative Pathway - EAVS Supercharger

High Most Likely Cost Estimates Paired with Low Most Likely Effectiveness Estimates
Possible Technologies % FC Reduction FC Reduction Multiplier Cumulative FC Reduction Multiplier Fuel Consumption (gal/100 mi) Cumulative Percent FC Reduction Unadjusted Combined FE (mpg) 2017 Cost Estimates 2020 Cost Estimates 2025 Cost Estimates 2017 Cost/Percent FC ($/%)
Null Vehiclea   1.000 1.000 3.240 0.0% 30.9        
Intake Cam Phasing
ICP
2.6% 0.974 0.974 3.156 2.6% 31.7 $43 $41 $36 $16.54
Dual Cam Phasing
DCP (vs. ICP)
2.5% 0.975 0.950 3.077 5.0% 32.5b $35 $33 $31 $14.00
2008 Example Vehicle
Low Rolling Resistance Tires - 1
ROLL1
1.9% 0.981 0.932 3.018 6.8% 33.1 $5 $5 $5 $2.63
Low Friction Lubricants - 1
LUB1
0.7% 0.993 0.925 2.997 7.5% 33.4 $3 $3 $3 $4.29
6 Speed Automatic Transmissionc
6 SP AT with Improved Internals IATC
1.3% 0.987 0.913 2.958 8.7% 33.8 $37 $34 $31 $28.46
Aero Drag Reduction - 1
AERO1
2.3% 0.977 0.892 2.890 10.8% 34.6 $39 $37 $33 $16.96
Engine Friction Reduction - 1
EFR1
2.6% 0.974 0.869 2.815 13.1% 35.5 $48 $48 $48 $18.46
Electric Power Steering
EPS
1.3% 0.987 0.858 2.779 14.2% 36.0 $87 $82 $74 $66.92
Mass Reduction - 2.5%
MR2.5 (-87.5 lbs)
0.8% 0.992 0.851 2.756 14.9% 36.3 $22 $22 $22 $27.50
Discrete Variable Valve Lift
DVVL
3.6% 0.964 0.820 2.657 18.0% 37.6 $133 $125 $114 $36.94
2016 Target 36.6 mpg
Mass Reduction - 2.5%-5.0%
MR5-MR2.5 (-87.5 lbs)
0.8% 0.992 0.814 2.636 18.6% 37.9 $66 $66 $66 $82.50
Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection
SGDI (Required for TRBDS)
1.5% 0.985 0.801 2.596 19.9% 38.5 $192 $181 $164 $128.00
EAVS-Supercharger
EAVS-SC
26.0% 0.740 0.593 1.921 40.7% 52.0 $1,302 $1,302 $1,302 $50.08
8 Speed Automatic Transmissionc
8 SP AT
1.3% 0.987 0.585 1.896 41.5% 52.7 $151 $126 $115 $116.15
Shift Optimizerc
SHFTOPT
0.3% 0.997 0.584 1.891 41.6% 52.9 $26 $24 $22 $86.67
Low Rolling Resistance Tires
ROLL2
2.0% 0.980 0.572 1.853 42.8% 54.0 $58 $46 $31 $29.00
Aero Drag Reduction - 2
AERO2
2.5% 0.975 0.558 1.806 44.2% 55.4 $117 $110 $100 $46.80
2025 Target 54.2 mpg
Mass Reduction - 5%-10%
MR10-MR5 (-175 lbs)
4.6% 0.954 0.532 1.723 46.8% 58.0 $325 $322 $315 $70.65
Low Friction Lub - 2 & Engine Friction Red - 2
LUB2_EFR2
1.3% 0.987 0.525 1.701 47.5% 58.8 $51 $51 $51 $39.23
Cooled EGR - 1
CEGR1 50% DS 24 bar
BMEP
3.0% 0.970 0.509 1.650 49.1% 60.6 $212 $199 $180 $70.67
High Efficiency Transmission
HEG1 & 2
4.9% 0.951 0.484 1.569 51.6% 63.7 $314 $296 $267 $64.08
Suggested Citation:"Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×
Possible Technologies % FC Reduction FC Reduction Multiplier Cumulative FC Reduction Multiplier Fuel Consumption (gal/100 mi) Cumulative Percent FC Reduction Unadjusted 2017 Combined FE Cost (mpg) Estimates 2020 Cost Estimates 2025 Cost Estimates 2017 Cost/Percent FC ($/%)
Continuously Variable Valve Lift
CVVL (vs. DVVL)
1.0% 0.990 0.479 1.553 52.1% 64.4 $67 $63 $56 $67.00
Cylinder Deactivation
DEACD
0.0% 1.000 0.479 1.553 52.1% 64.4      
Cooled EGR - 2
CEGR2 56% DS 27 bar
BMEP
1.4% 0.986 0.473 1.532 52.7% 65.3 $364 $343 $310 $260.00
Totals
Relative to Null Vehicle 52.7% 0.473       $3,697 $3,559 $3,376 $70.12
Null Vehicle - 2008 MY Vehicle 5.0% 0.950       $78 $74 $67 $15.49
2008 MY Vehicle - 2016 MY 13.6% 0.864       $374 $356 $330  
2017 MY- 2025 MY 32.0% 0.680       $1,912 $1,855 $1,800 $59.72
Beyond 2025 MY 15.2% 0.848       $1,333 $1,274 $1,179 $87.62

a Null vehicle: I4, DOHC, naturally aspirated, 4 valves/cylinder PFI fixed valve timing and 4 speed AT.

b An example midsize car in 2008 was 46.64 sq ft and had a fuel economy of 32.5 mpg. Its standard for MY2016 would be 36.6 mpg and for MY2025 would be 54.2 mpg.

c These technologies have transmission synergies included. Green highlighting indicates a technology order different than the NHTSA pathway, shown in Appendix S.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
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Page 426
Suggested Citation:"Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×
Page 427
Suggested Citation:"Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×
Page 428
Suggested Citation:"Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×
Page 429
Suggested Citation:"Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×
Page 430
Suggested Citation:"Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×
Page 431
Suggested Citation:"Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
×
Page 432
Suggested Citation:"Appendix V: SI Engine Pathway NRC Estimates Direct Manufacturing Costs Alternative Pathway, Alternative High CR with Exhaust Scavenging, and Alternative EVAS Supercharger." National Research Council. 2015. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21744.
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Page 433
Next: Appendix W: Technologies, Footprints, and Fuel Economy for Example Passenger Cars, Trucks, and Hybrid Passenger Cars »
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The light-duty vehicle fleet is expected to undergo substantial technological changes over the next several decades. New powertrain designs, alternative fuels, advanced materials and significant changes to the vehicle body are being driven by increasingly stringent fuel economy and greenhouse gas emission standards. By the end of the next decade, cars and light-duty trucks will be more fuel efficient, weigh less, emit less air pollutants, have more safety features, and will be more expensive to purchase relative to current vehicles. Though the gasoline-powered spark ignition engine will continue to be the dominant powertrain configuration even through 2030, such vehicles will be equipped with advanced technologies, materials, electronics and controls, and aerodynamics. And by 2030, the deployment of alternative methods to propel and fuel vehicles and alternative modes of transportation, including autonomous vehicles, will be well underway. What are these new technologies - how will they work, and will some technologies be more effective than others?

Written to inform The United States Department of Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards, this new report from the National Research Council is a technical evaluation of costs, benefits, and implementation issues of fuel reduction technologies for next-generation light-duty vehicles. Cost, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles estimates the cost, potential efficiency improvements, and barriers to commercial deployment of technologies that might be employed from 2020 to 2030. This report describes these promising technologies and makes recommendations for their inclusion on the list of technologies applicable for the 2017-2025 CAFE standards.

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