Fertility rates in many sub-Saharan African countries are high: the total fertility rate for the region is estimated to be 5.1 births per woman, and rates that had begun to decline in some countries in the region have stalled (Bongaarts and Casterline, 2013).1 By comparison, fertility rates in developing nations in Asia and Latin America declined more rapidly during the 1970s and are currently 2.5 and 2.2 births per woman, respectively. High rates of fertility in the sub-Saharan African countries are likely to contribute to continued rapid population growth: the United Nations projects 2 that the region’s population will increase by 1.2 billion by 2050, the highest growth among the regions for which there are projections.3
Fertility rates and population growth may influence economic development. The marked declines in fertility seen in some developing nations
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1The term “sub-Saharan Africa” is generally used to refer to the African countries that are situated south of the Sahara desert. This group of more than 40 countries generally excludes only the continent’s six northernmost countries (see http://data.worldbank.org/region/SSA [August 2015] for one list of countries usually included in the sub-Saharan group).
2Since the workshop, held June 15-16, 2015, the United Nations has issued updated population estimates and projections. The United Nations data were used in many of the papers and presentations at the workshop, and since this summary reflects the proceedings of the workshop, some of the data may not be the most up to date available. For updated data, see United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables at http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/publications/files/key_findings_wpp_2015.pdf [December 2015].
3See http://www.prb.org/Publications/Articles/2013/un-world-projections.aspx [August 2015].
have been accompanied by slowing population growth. The slower population growth may, in turn, provide a window of opportunity for rapid economic growth. However, to the extent that this relationship exists, the window has not yet opened for many sub-Saharan African nations because fertility rates have not declined as rapidly as those of other nations.
Donors, researchers, and policy makers have a strong interest in better understanding the factors that may explain the slow pace of fertility decline in this region, and in improving family planning in sub-Saharan Africa. The Committee on Population, with the support of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, formed a steering committee to plan a workshop to explore fertility trends and the factors that have influenced them, which was held in June 2015.
The workshop committee was asked to explore history and trends related to fertility, proximate determinants and other influences, the status and impact of family planning programs, and prospects for further reducing fertility rates; see Box 1-1 for the committee’s charge. The committee
BOX 1-1
Statement of Task
An ad hoc committee will plan and conduct a workshop to explore the determinants of the slow fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. The workshop participants (including African population specialists) will discuss various commissioned papers and presentations with topics that include
- levels, trends, and differentials in fertility in sub-Saharan Africa;
- proximate determinants of fertility (i.e., use of contraception, marriage and cohabitation, abstinence, abortion, and postpartum infecundability);
- reproductive preferences and their implementation (i.e., unmet need, demand for contraception, and desired family size);
- socioeconomic trends and their impact on fertility;
- status and impact of family planning programs; and
- prospects for faster declines in fertility and ways they might be achieved.
The goal of the proposed workshop is to provide explanations for past trends, including the importance of country-specific factors and the public policies and programs that influence fertility, and to assess prospects of fertility change in the region. An individually authored summary of the presentations and discussions at the workshop will be prepared by a designated rapporteur and issued in accordance with institutional policies and procedures. A scholarly journal may be approached to publish selected commissioned papers following the workshop.
commissioned experts to prepare papers and presentations and to participate in formal discussion of those papers. The presenters and discussion leaders represented experts in demographic trends, African population issues, family planning, and African health issues. The presenters also included representatives of funding organizations, who discussed current assessments of the determinants of fertility and prospects for the future and provided analysis of policy options and their implications.
This report has been prepared by the workshop rapporteur as a factual summary of what occurred at the workshop. It is designed to be of use to population specialists; policy makers; public health officials; and foundations, nongovernmental organizations, and government agencies with program, funding, and public policy responsibilities. The planning committee’s role was limited to planning and convening the workshop. The views contained in the report are those of individual workshop participants and do not necessarily represent the views of all workshop participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.