References

Adcroft, A., R. Hallberg, J. P. Dunne, B. L. Samuels, J. A. Galt, C. H. Barker and D. Payton. 2010. Simulations of underwater plumes of dissolved oil in the Gulf of Mexico. Geophysical Research Letters 37. DOI: 10.1029/2010gl044689.

Ades, M. and P. J. van Leeuwen. 2015. The equivalent-weights particle filter in a high-dimensional system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 141(687):484-503. DOI: 10.1002/Qj.2370.

Ajayamohan, R. S., S. A. Rao, J. J. Luo and T. Yamagata. 2009. Influence of Indian Ocean Dipole on boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations in a coupled general circulation model. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 114. DOI: 10.1029/2008jd011096.

Alexander, M. A. 1992. Midlatitude Atmosphere Ocean Interaction during El Nino. Part 1: The North Pacific-Ocean. Journal of Climate 5(9):944-958. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0944:Maiden>2.0.Co;2.

Alexander, M. A., C. Deser and M. S. Timlin. 1999. The reemergence of SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean. Journal of Climate 12(8):2419-2433. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2419:Trosai>2.0.Co;2.

Allen, R. J. and C. S. Zender. 2010. Effects of continental-scale snow albedo anomalies on the wintertime Arctic oscillation. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 115. DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014490.

Alspach, D. L. and H. W. Sorenson. 1972. Nonlinear Bayesian estimation using gaussian sum approximations. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 17(4):439-448. DOI: 10.1109/Tac.1972.1100034.

Anderson, J. L. and S. L. Anderson. 1999. A Monte Carlo implementation of the nonlinear filtering problem to produce ensemble assimilations and forecasts. Monthly Weather Review 127(12):2741-2758.DOI:10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<2741:Am-ciot>2.0.Co;2.

Annan, J. D., J. C. Hargreaves, N. R. Edwards and R. Marsh. 2005. Parameter estimation in an intermediate complexity earth system model using an ensemble Kalman filter. Ocean Modelling 8(1-2):135-154. DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2003.12.004.

Arakawa, A. and C. M. Wu. 2013. A unified representation of deep moist convection in numerical modeling of the atmosphere. Part I. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 70(7):1977-1992. DOI: 10.1175/Jas-D-12-0330.1.

Arnold, C. P. and C. H. Dey. 1986. Observing-systems simulation experiments—past, present, and future. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 67(6):687-695. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(1986)067<0687:Ossepp>2.0.Co;2.

Arteaga, A., O. Fuhrer and T. Hoefler. 2014. Designing Bit-Reproducible Portable High-Performance Applications. Presented at IEEE 28th International Parallel and Distributed Processing Symposium, Washington, DC.

ASCAC (Advanced Scientific Computing Advisory Committee). 2015. Exascale Computing Initiative. Washington, DC: US DOE.

Athanasiadis, P. J., A. Bellucci, L. Hermanson, A. A. Scaife, C. MacLachlan, A. Arribas, S. Materia, A. Borrelli and S. Gualdi. 2014. The representation of atmospheric blocking and the associated low-frequency variability in two seasonal prediction systems. Journal of Climate 27(24):9082-9100. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-14-00291.1.

Back, L. E. and C. S. Bretherton. 2009. On the relationship between SST gradients, boundary layer winds, and convergence over the tropical oceans. Journal of Climate 22(15):4182-4196. DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2392.1.

Bahr, A., J. J. Leonard and M. F. Fallon. 2009. Cooperative localization for autonomous underwater vehicles. International Journal of Robotics Research 28(6):714-728. DOI: 10.1177/0278364908100561.

Baker, A. H., D. M. Hammerling, M. N. L. H. Xu, J. M. Dennis, B. E. Eaton, J. Edwards, C. Hannay, S. A. Mickelson, R. B. Neale, D. Nychka, J. Shollenberger, J. Tribbia, M. Vertenstein and D. Williamson. 2015. A new ensemble-based consistency test for the Community Earth System Model (pyCECT v1.0). Geoscientific Model Development 8:2829-2840. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-8-2829-2015.

Baker, W. E., R. Atlas, C. Cardinali, A. Clement, G. D. Emmitt, B. M. Gentry, R. M. Hardesty, E. Kallen, M. J. Kavaya, R. Langland, Z. Z. Ma, M. Masutani, W. McCarty, R. B. Pierce, Z. X. Pu, L. P. Riishojgaard, J. Ryan, S. Tucker, M. Weissmann and J. G. Yoe. 2014. Lidar-measured wind profiles: The missing link in the Global Observing System. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95(4):543-564. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-12-00164.1.

Baldwin, M. P. and T. J. Dunkerton. 2001. Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes. Science 294(5542):581-584. DOI: 10.1126/science.1063315.

Baldwin, M. P., D. B. Stephenson, D. W. J. Thompson, T. J. Dunkerton, A. J. Charlton and A. ONeill. 2003. Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts. Science 301(5633):636-640. DOI: 10.1126/science.1087143.

Balmaseda, M. A., L. Ferranti, F. Molteni and T. N. Palmer. 2010. Impact of 2007 and 2008 Arctic ice anomalies on the atmospheric circulation: Implications for long-range predictions. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 136(652):1655-1664. DOI: 10.1002/Qj.661.

Balsamo, G., A. Agustì-Panareda, C. Albergel, A. Beljaars, S. Boussetta, E. Dutra, T. Komori, S. Lang, J. Muñoz-Sabater, F. Pappenberger, P. d. Rosnay, I. Sandu, N. Wedi, A. Weisheimer, F. Wetterhall and E. Zsoter. 2014. Representing the Earth surfaces in the Integrated Forecasting System: Recent advances and future challenges. Special topic paper on surface processes presented at the 43rd ECMWF Scientific Advisory Committee. Reading, UK: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts.

Barnhart, K. R., I. Overeem and R. S. Anderson. 2014. The effect of changing sea ice on the physical vulnerability of Arctic coasts. Cryosphere 8(5):1777-1799. DOI: 10.5194/tc-8-1777-2014.

Barnston, A. G., S. H. Li, S. J. Mason, D. G. DeWitt, L. Goddard and X. F. Gong. 2010. Verification of the first 11 years of IRI’s seasonal climate forecasts. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 49(3):493-520. DOI: 10.1175/2009JAMC2325.1.

Bauer, P., G. Ohring, C. Kummerow and T. Auligne. 2011. Assimilating satellite observations of clouds and precipitation into NWP models. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 92(6):Es25-Es28. DOI: 10.1175/2011bams3182.1.

Beck, M. 2009. Grand Challenges for the Future for Environmental Modeling. White Paper NFS Award# 0630367, NSF’s Environmental Observatories Initiatives, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602-2152, Aug. 2009.

Bell, M. J., M. J. Martin and N. K. Nichols. 2004. Assimilation of data into an ocean model with systematic errors near the equator. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 130(598):873-893. DOI: 10.1256/Qj.02.109.

Bellingham, J. G., and K. Rajan. 2007. Robotics in remote and hostile environments. Science 318(5853):1098-1102. DOI: 10.1126/science.1146230.

Benedetti, A., P. Lopez, P. Bauer and E. Moreau. 2005. Experimental use of TRMM precipitation radar observations in 1D+4D-Var assimilation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 131(610):2473-2495. DOI: 10.1256/qj.04.89.

Benedict, J. J. and D. A. Randall. 2009. Structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the superparameterized CAM. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 66(11):3277-3296. DOI: 10.1175/2009jas3030.1.

Bengtsson, T., C. Snyder and D. Nychka. 2003. Toward a nonlinear ensemble filter for high-dimensional systems. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 108(D24). DOI: 10.1029/2002jd002900.

Bennett, A. F. 1992. Inverse Methods in Physical Oceanography. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Berner, J., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, T. N. Palmer, G. Shutts and A. Weisheimer. 2008. Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 366(1875):2561-2579. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0033.

Berner, J., S. Y. Ha, J. P. Hacker, A. Fournier and C. Snyder. 2011. Model uncertainty in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system: Stochastic versus multiphysics representations. Monthly Weather Review 139(6):1972-1995. DOI: 10.1175/2010MWR3595.1.

Best, M. J., G. Abramowitz, H. R. Johnson, A. J. Pitman, G. Balsamo, A. Boone, M. Cuntz, B. Decharme, P. A. Dirmeyer, J. Dong, M. Ek, Z. Guo, V. Haverd, B. J. J. Van den Hurk, G. S. Nearing, B. Pak, C. Peters-Lidard, J. A. Santanello, L. Stevens and N. Vuichard. 2015.The plumbing of land surface models: Benchmarking model performance. Journal of Hydrometeorology 16(3):1425-1442. DOI: 10.1175/Jhm-D-14-0158.1.

Bishop, C. and M. Martin. 2012. Joint GODAE OceanView—WGNE workshop on Short- to Medium-range coupled prediction for the atmosphere-wave-sea-ice-ocean: Status, needs and challenges. Data Assimilation—Whitepaper. Retrieved August 21, 2015, from https://www.godae-oceanview.org/files/download.php?m=documents&f=130130121715CoupledDAWhitePaperv01November232012.doc.

Bitz, C. M., D. S. Battisti, R. E. Moritz and J. A. Beesley. 1996. Low-frequency variability in the arctic atmosphere, sea ice, and upper-ocean climate system. Journal of Climate 9(2):394-408. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<0394:Lfvita>2.0.Co;2.

Bitz, C. M., P. R. Gent, R. A. Woodgate, M. M. Holland and R. Lindsay. 2006. The influence of sea ice on ocean heat uptake in response to increasing CO2. Journal of Climate 19(11):2437-2450. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli3756.1.

Bitz, C. M., J. K. Ridley, M. M. Holland and H. Cattle. 2012. 20th and 21st century Arctic Climate in Global Climate Models. In Arctic Climate Change: The ACSYS Decade and Beyond. P. Lemke and H.-W. Jacobi, eds. Dordrecht: Springer.

Blaise, S., R. Comblen, V. Legat, J. F. Remacle, E. Deleersnijder and J. Lambrechts. 2010. A discontinuous finite element baroclinic marine model on unstructured prismatic meshes. Part I: space discretization. Ocean Dynamics 60(6):1371-1393. DOI: 10.1007/s10236-010-0358-3.

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., K. C. Armour, C. M. Bitz and E. DeWeaver. 2011a. Persistence and inherent predictability of Arctic sea ice in a GCM ensemble and observations. Journal of Climate 24(1):231-250. DOI: 10.1175/2010jcli3775.1.

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., C. M. Bitz and M. M. Holland. 2011b. Influence of initial conditions and boundary forcing on predictability in the Arctic. Geophysical Research Letters 38:L18503. DOI: 10.1029/2011GL048807.

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E. and C. M. Bitz. 2014. Characteristics of arctic sea-ice thickness variability in GCMs. Journal of Climate 27(21):8244-8258. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-14-00345.1.

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., R. Cullather, W. Wanqiu, J. Zhang and C. M. Bitz. 2015. Model skill and sensitivity to initial conditions in a sea-ice prediction system. Geophysical Research Letters (in review).

Boas, A. B. V., O. T. Sato, A. Chaigneau and G. P. Castelao. 2015. The signature of mesoscale eddies on the air-sea turbulent heat fluxes in the South Atlantic Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters 42(6):1856-1862. DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063105.

Bocquet, M. 2012. An introduction to inverse modelling and parameter estimation for atmosphere and ocean sciences. Oxford Scholarship Online. DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198723844.003.0020.

Bocquet, M. and P. Sakov. 2013. Joint state and parameter estimation with an iterative ensemble Kalman smoother. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 20(5):803-818. DOI: 10.5194/npg-20-803-2013.

Bocquet, M., C. A. Pires and L. Wu. 2010. Beyond Gaussian statistical modeling in geophysical data assimilation. Monthly Weather Review 138(8):2997-3023. DOI: 10.1175/2010MWR3164.1.

Bonan, G. B. 2008. Forests and climate change: Forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests. Science 320(5882):1444-1449. DOI: 10.1126/science.1155121.

Bonavita, M., M. Hamrud and L. Isaksen. 2015. EnKF and hybrid gain ensemble data assimilation. Part II: EnKF and hybrid gain results. Monthly Weather Review 143(12):4865-4882. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-15-0071.1.

Braman, L. M., M. K. van Aalst, S. J. Mason, P. Suarez,Y. Ait-Chellouche and A.Tall. 2013. Climate forecasts in disaster management: Red Cross flood operations in West Africa, 2008. Disasters 37(1):144-164. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-7717.2012.01297.x.

Brands, S., R. Manzanas, J. M. Gutierrez and J. Cohen. 2012. Seasonal predictability of wintertime precipitation in Europe using the snow advance index. Journal of Climate 25(12):4023-4028. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00083.1.

Brassington, G. B., M. J. Martin, H. L. Tolman, S. Akella, M. Balmeseda, C. R. S. Chambers, E. P. Chassignet, J. A. Cummings, Y. Drillet, P. A. E. M. Janssen, P. Laloyaux, D. Lea, A. Mehra, I. Mirouze, H. Ritchie, G. Samson, P. A. Sandery, G. C. Smith, M. Suarez and R. Todling. 2015. Progress and challenges in short- to medium-range coupled prediction. Journal of Operational Oceanography (in press).

Breuer, N. E., C. W. Fraisse and V. E. Cabrera. 2010. The Cooperative Extension Service as a boundary organization for diffusion of climate forecasts: A 5-year study. Journal of Extension 48(4).

Broman, D., B. Rajagopalan and T. Hopson. 2014. Spatiotemporal variability and predictability of relative humidity over West African monsoon region. Journal of Climate 27(14):5346-5363. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-13-00414.1.

Brown, A., S. Milton, M. Cullen, B. Golding, J. Mitchell and A. Shelly. 2012. Unified modeling and prediction of weather and climate: A 25-year journey. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93(12):1865-1877. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-12-00018.1.

Brown, B. G., J. L. Mahoney, C. A. Davis, R. Bullock and C. K. Mueller. 2002. Improved Approaches for Measuring the Quality of Convective Weather Forecasts. Presented at 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Orlando, FL.

Brown, B. G., R. Bullock, C. A. Davis, J. H. Gotway, M. Chapman, A. Takacs, E. Gilleland, J. L. Mahoney and K. Manning. 2004. New Verification Approaches for Convective Weather Forecasts. Presented at 11th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace, Hyannis, MA.

Brunet, G., M. Shapiro, B. Hoskins, M. Moncrieff, R. Dole, G. N. Kiladis, B. Kirtman, A. Lorenc, B. Mills, R. Morss, S. Polavarapu, D. Rogers, J. Schaake and J. Shukla. 2010. Collaboration of the weather and climate communities to advance subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91(10):1397-1406. DOI: 10.1175/2010bams3013.1.

Bryan, F. O., R. Tomas, J. M. Dennis, D. B. Chelton, N. G. Loeb and J. L. McClean. 2010. Frontal scale air-sea interaction in high-resolution coupled climate models. Journal of Climate 23(23):6277-6291. DOI: 10.1175/2010jcli3665.1.

Bryan, K. 1969. A numerical method for the study of the circulation of the world ocean. Journal of Computational Physics 4(3):347-376. DOI: 10.1006/jcph.1997.5699.

Bryan, K. and M. D. Cox. 1968. A nonlinear model of an ocean driven by wind and differential heating. I. Description of 3-dimensional velocity and density fields. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 25(6):945-978. DOI: Doi 10.1175/1520-0469(1968)025<0945:Anmoao>2.0.Co;2.

Buehner, M., J. Morneau, and C. Charette. 2013. Four-dimensional ensemble-variational data assimilation for global deterministic weather prediction. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 20(5):669-682. DOI: 10.5194/npg-20-669-2013.

Buontempo, C., C. D. Hewitt, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and S. Dessai. 2014. Climate service development, delivery and use in Europe at monthly to inter-annual timescales. Climate Risk Management 6:1-5. DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2014.10.002.

Bushuk, M. and D. Giannakis. 2015. Sea-ice reemergence in a model hierarchy. Geophysical Research Letters 42(13):5337-5345. DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063972.

Byun, K. and M. Choi. 2014. Uncertainty of snow water equivalent retrieved from AMSR-E brightness temperature in northeast Asia. Hydrological Processes 28(7):3173-3184. DOI: 10.1002/Hyp.9846.

Cai, W. J., A. Santoso, G. J. Wang, S. W. Yeh, S. I. An, K. M. Cobb, M. Collins, E. Guilyardi, F. F. Jin, J. S. Kug, M. Lengaigne, M. J. McPhaden, K. Takahashi, A. Timmermann, G. Vecchi, M. Watanabe and L. X. Wu. 2015. ENSO and greenhouse warming. Nature Climate Change 5(9):849-859. DOI: 10.1038/Nclimate2743.

Cane, M. A., S. E. Zebiak and S. C. Dolan. 1986. Experimental forecasts of El-Niño. Nature 321(6073):827-832. DOI: 10.1038/321827a0.

Capotondi, A., A. T. Wittenberg, M. Newman, E. D. Lorenzo, J.-Y. Yu, P. Braconnot, J. Cole, B. Dewitte, B. Giese, E. Guilyardi, F.-F. Jin, K. Karnauskas, B. Kirtman, T. Lee, N. Schneider, Y. Xue and S.-W. Yeh. 2014. Understanding ENSO diversity. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (e-view). DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00117.1.

Cardinali, C. 2009. Monitoring the observation impact on the short-range forecast. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 135(638):239-250. DOI: 10.1002/qj.366.

Cassou, C. 2008. Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Nature 455(7212):523-527. DOI: 10.1038/Nature07286.

Challinor, A. J., J. M. Slingo, T. R. Wheeler and F. J. Doblas-Reyes. 2005. Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles. Tellus Series a-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 57(3):498-512. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00126.x.

Chandra, R., L. Dagum, D. Kohr, D. Maydan, J. McDonald and R. Menon. 2001. Parallel Programming in OpenMP. San Diego: Academic Press.

Charrassin, J. B., M. Hindell, S. R. Rintoul, F. Roquet, S. Sokolov, M. Biuw, D. Costa, L. Boehme, P. Lovell, R. Coleman, R. Timmermann, A. Meijers, M. Meredith, Y. H. Park, F. Bailleul, M. Goebel, Y. Tremblay, C. A. Bost, C. R. McMahon, I. C. Field, M. A. Fedak, and C. Guinet. 2008. Southern Ocean frontal structure and sea-ice formation rates revealed by elephant seals.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105(33):11634-11639.DOI:10.1073/pnas.0800790105.

Chassignet, E. P. and J. Verron. 2006. Ocean Weather Forecasting: An Integrated View of Oceanography. Dordrecht: Springer.

Chassignet, E. P., J. G. Richman, E. J. Metzger, X. Xu, P. G. Hogan, B. K. Arbic and A. J. Wallcraft. 2014. HYCOM high resolution eddying simulations. CLIVAR Exchanges 19(2):22-25.

Chelton, D. B. and S. P. Xie. 2010. Coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction at oceanic mesoscales. Oceanography 23(4):52-69. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2010.05.

Chelton, D. B., M. G. Schlax, M. H. Freilich and R. F. Milliff. 2004. Satellite measurements reveal persistent small-scale features in ocean winds. Science 303(5660):978-983. DOI: 10.1126/science.1091901.

Chen, C. S., H. S. Huang, R. C. Beardsley, Q. C. Xu, R. Limeburner, G. W. Cowles, Y. F. Sun, J. H. Qi and H. C. Lin. 2011. Tidal dynamics in the Gulf of Maine and New England Shelf: An application of FVCOM. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 116. DOI: 10.1029/2011jc007054.

Chen, S.Y. S., J. F. Price, W. Zhao, M. A. Donelan and E. J.Walsh. 2007.The CBLAST-hurricane program and the next-generation fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean. Models for hurricane research and prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88(3):311-317. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-88-3-311.

Chen, S. Y. S., W. Zhao, M. A. Donelan and H. L. Tolman. 2013. Directional wind-wave coupling in fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean models: Results from CBLAST-Hurricane. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 70(10):3198-3215. DOI: 10.1175/Jas-D-12-0157.1.

Chevallier, M. and D. Salas-Melia. 2012. The role of sea ice thickness distribution in the arctic sea ice potential predictability: A diagnostic approach with a coupled GCM. Journal of Climate 25(8):3025-3038. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00209.1.

Chevallier, M., D. S. Y. Melia, A. Voldoire, M. Deque and G. Garric. 2013. Seasonal forecasts of the pan-arctic sea ice extent using a GCM-based seasonal prediction system. Journal of Climate 26(16):6092-6104. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00612.1.

Chowdary, J. S., S. P. Xie, J. J. Luo, J. Hafner, S. Behera, Y. Masumoto and T. Yamagata. 2011. Predictability of Northwest Pacific climate during summer and the role of the tropical Indian Ocean. Climate Dynamics 36(3-4):607-621. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0686-5.

Church, J. and N. Gandal. 1992. Network effects, software provision, and standardization. Journal of Industrial Economics 40(1):85-103. DOI: 10.2307/2950628.

Clayton, A. M., A. C. Lorenc and D. M. Barker. 2013. Operational implementation of a hybrid ensemble/4D-Var global data assimilation system at the Met Office. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 139(675):1445-1461. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2054.

CLIVAR Exchanges. 2014. Special Issue on High Resolution Ocean Climate Modeling. 19(2).

Cohen, J., J. A. Screen, J. C. Furtado, M. Barlow, D. Whittleston, D. Coumou, J. Francis, K. Dethloff, D. Entekhabi, J. Overland and J. Jones. 2014. Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather. Nature Geoscience 7(9):627-637. DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2234.

Compo, G. P., J. S. Whitaker, P. D. Sardeshmukh, N. Matsui, R. J. Allan, X. Yin, B. E. Gleason, R. S. Vose, G. Rutledge, P. Bessemoulin, S. Bronnimann, M. Brunet, R. I. Crouthamel, A. N. Grant, P. Y. Groisman, P. D. Jones, M. C. Kruk, A. C. Kruger, G. J. Marshall, M. Maugeri, H. Y. Mok, O. Nordli, T. F. Ross, R. M. Trigo, X. L. Wang, S. D. Woodruff and S. J. Worley. 2011. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 137(654):1-28. DOI: 10.1002/qj.776.

Cornuelle, B., J. Hansen, B. Kirtman, S. Sandgathe and S. Warren. 2014. Issues and challenges with using ensemble-based prediction to probe the weather-climate interface. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95(11):213-215. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-13-00235.1.

Cotter, C. J. and J. Shipton. 2012. Mixed finite elements for numerical weather prediction. Journal of Computational Physics 231(21):7076-7091. DOI: 10.1016/j.jcp.2012.05.020.

Coughlan de Perez, E. and S. J. Mason. 2014. Climate information for humanitarian agencies: Some basic principles. Earth Perspectives 1(11). DOI: 10.1186/2194-6434-1-11.

Courtier, P. and O. Talagrand. 1987. Variational assimilation of meteorological observations with the adjoint vorticity equation. 2. Numerical results. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 113(478):1329-1347. DOI: 10.1256/Smsqj.47812.

Courtier, P., J. N. Thepaut and A. Hollingsworth. 1994. A strategy for operational implementation of 4D-Var, using an incremental approach. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 120(519):1367-1387. DOI: 10.1002/qj.49712051912.

Cover, T. M. and J. A. Thomas. 2012. Elements of Information Theory. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.

Crueger, T., B. Stevens and R. Brokopf. 2013.The Madden-Julian Oscillation in ECHAM6 and the introduction of an objective MJO metric. Journal of Climate 26(10):3241-3257. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00413.1.

Cummings, J., L. Bertino, P. Brasseur, I. Fukumori, M. Kamachi, M. J. Martin, K. Mogensen, P. Oke, C. E. Testut, J. Verron and A. Weaver. 2009. Ocean data assimilation systems for GODAE. Oceanography 22(3):96-109.

Cummings, J. A. 2011. Ocean data quality control. In Operational Oceanography in the 21st Century. A. Schiller and G. B. Brassington, eds. Dordrecht: Springer.

Curtin, T. B. and J. G. Bellingham. 2009. Progress toward autonomous ocean sampling networks. Deep-Sea Research Part II-Topical Studies in Oceanography 56(3-5):62-67. DOI: 10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.09.005.

Curtin, T. B., J. G. Bellingham, J. Catipovic and D. Webb. 1993. Autonomous oceanographic sampling networks. Oceanography 6(3):86-94. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.1993.03.

Daley, R. 1991. Atmospheric Data Analysis. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Davis, R. E., N. E. Leonard and D. M. Fratantoni. 2009. Routing strategies for underwater gliders. Deep-Sea Research Part II-Topical Studies in Oceanography 56(3-5):173-187. DOI: 10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.08.005.

Day, J. J., S. Tietsche and E. Hawkins. 2014. Pan-Arctic and regional sea ice predictability: Initialization month dependence. Journal of Climate 27(12):4371-4390. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-13-00614.1.

de Rosnay, P., M. Drusch, D. Vasiljevic, G. Balsamo, C. Albergel and L. Isaksen. 2013. A simplified Extended Kalman Filter for the global operational soil moisture analysis at ECMWF. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 139(674):1199-1213. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2023.

Dee, D. P. and A. M. Da Silva. 2003. The choice of variable for atmospheric moisture analysis. Monthly Weather Review 131(1):155-171. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0155:Tcovfa>2.0.Co;2.

Dee, D. P., S. M. Uppala, A. J. Simmons, P. Berrisford, P. Poli, S. Kobayashi, U. Andrae, M. A. Balmaseda, G. Balsamo, P. Bauer, P. Bechtold, A. C. M. Beljaars, L. van de Berg, J. Bidlot, N. Bormann, C. Delsol, R. Dragani, M. Fuentes, A. J. Geer, L. Haimberger, S. B. Healy, H. Hersbach, E. V. Holm, L. Isaksen, P. Kallberg, M. Kohler, M. Matricardi, A. P. McNally, B. M. Monge-Sanz, J. J. Morcrette, B. K. Park, C. Peubey, P. de Rosnay, C. Tavolato, J. N. Thepaut and F. Vitart. 2011. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 137(656):553-597. DOI: 10.1002/qj.828.

Dee, D. P., M. Balmaseda, G. Balsam, R. Engelen, A. J. Simmons and J. N. Thepaut. 2014. Toward a consistent reanalysis of the climate system. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95(8):1235-1248. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-13-00043.1.

Deleersnijder, E., V. Legat and P. F. J. Lermusiaux. 2010. Multi-scale modelling of coastal, shelf and global ocean dynamics. Ocean Dynamics 60(6):1357-1359. DOI: 10.1007/s10236-010-0363-6.

Delworth, T. L., A. J. Broccoli, A. Rosati, R. J. Stouffer, V. Balaji, J. A. Beesley, W. F. Cooke, K. W. Dixon, J. Dunne, K. A. Dunne, J. W. Durachta, K. L. Findell, P. Ginoux, A. Gnanadesikan, C. T. Gordon, S. M. Griffies, R. Gudgel, M. J. Harrison, I. M. Held, R. S. Hemler, L. W. Horowitz, S. A. Klein, T. R. Knutson, P. J. Kushner, A. R. Langenhorst, H. C. Lee, S. J. Lin, J. Lu, S. L. Malyshev, P. C. D. Milly, V. Ramaswamy, J. Russell, M. D. Schwarzkopf, E. Shevliakova, J. J. Sirutis, M. J. Spelman, W. F. Stern, M. Winton, A.T. Wittenberg, B. Wyman, F. Zeng and R. Zhang. 2006. GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics. Journal of Climate 19(5):643-674. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli3629.1.

DeMey, P. 1997. Data assimilation at the oceanic mesoscale: A review. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 75(1B):415-427.

DeMott, C. A., C. Stan, D. A. Randall, J. L. Kinter and M. Khairoutdinov. 2011. The Asian monsoon in the superparameterized CCSM and its relationship to tropical wave activity. Journal of Climate 24(19):5134-5156. DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4202.1.

Dettinger, M. D. 2013. Atmospheric rivers as drought busters on the US West Coast. Journal of Hydrometeorology 14(6):1721-1732. DOI: 10.1175/Jhm-D-13-02.1.

Dettinger, M. D., F. M. Ralph, T. Das, P. J. Neiman and D. R. Cayan. 2011. Atmospheric rivers, floods and the water resources of California. Water 3(2):445-478. DOI: 10.3390/W3020445.

Dewitt, D. G. 2005. Retrospective forecasts of interannual sea surface temperature anomalies from 1982 to present using a directly coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Monthly Weather Review 133(10):2972-2995. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr3016.1.

Dickey, T. D. 2003. Emerging ocean observations for interdisciplinary data assimilation systems. Journal of Marine Systems 40:5-48. DOI: 10.1016/S0924-7963(03)00011-3.

Dirmeyer, P. A., Y. Jin, B. Singh and X. Q. Yan. 2013. Trends in land-atmosphere interactions from CMIP5 simulations. Journal of Hydrometeorology 14(3):829-849. DOI: 10.1175/Jhm-D-12-0107.1.

Dirmeyer, P. A., Z. Y. Wang, M. J. Mbuh and H. E. Norton. 2014. Intensified land surface control on boundary layer growth in a changing climate. Geophysical Research Letters 41(4):1290-1294. DOI: 10.1002/2013gl058826.

Doblas-Reyes, F. J., M. Deque and J. P. Piedelievre. 2000. Multi-model spread and probabilistic seasonal forecasts in PROVOST. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 126(567):2069-2087. DOI: 10.1256/Smsqj.56704.

Doblas-Reyes, F. J., R. Hagedorn and T. N. Palmer. 2005. The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting—II. Calibration and combination. Tellus Series A—Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 57(3):234-252. DOI: DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00104.x.

Doblas-Reyes, F. J., R. Hagedorn, T. N. Palmer and J. J. Morcrette. 2006. Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters 33(7). DOI: 10.1029/2005gl025061.

Doblas-Reyes, F. J., A. Weisheimer, M. Deque, N. Keenlyside, M. McVean, J. M. Murphy, P. Rogel, D. Smith and T. N. Palmer. 2009. Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 135(643):1538-1559. DOI: 10.1002/qj.464.

Doblas-Reyes, F. J., J. Garcia-Serrano, F. Lienert, A. P. Biescas and L. R. L. Rodrigues. 2013. Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: Status and prospects. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews—Climate Change 4(4):245-268. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.217.

DOE (U.S. Department of Energy). 2008. Report on the DOE/BERAC Workshop. Identifying Outstanding Grand Challenges in Climate Change Research: Guiding DOE’s Strategic Planning. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy.

Doucet, A., N. De Freitas and N. Gordon. 2001. Sequential Monte-Carlo Methods in Practice. Berlin: Springer.

Dutton, J. A. 2002. Opportunities and priorities in a new era for weather and climate services. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83(9):1303-1311.

Dutton, J. A. 2010. Weather, Climate, and the Energy Industry: A Story of Sunlight—Some Old, Some New. In Management of Weather and Climate Risk in the Energy Industry. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series. A. Troccoli, ed. Dordrecht: Springer.

Dutton, J. A., R. P. James and J. D. Ross. 2013. Calibration and combination of dynamical seasonal forecasts to enhance the value of predicted probabilities for managing risk. Climate Dynamics 40(11-12):3089-3105. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1764-2.

Dutton, J. A., R. P. James and J. D. Ross. 2015. Bridging the Gap Between Seasonal Forecasts and Decisions to Act. Presented at American Meteorological Society, Phoenix, AZ.

Ebita, A., S. Kobayashi, Y. Ota, M. Moriya, R. Kumabe, K. Onogi, Y. Harada, S. Yasui, K. Miyaoka, K. Takahashi, H. Kamahori, C. Kobayashi, H. Endo, M. Soma, Y. Oikawa and T. Ishimizu. 2011. The Japanese 55-year reanalysis “JRA-55”: An interim report. Sola 7:149-152. DOI: 10.2151/sola.2011-038.

Ek, M. B. and A. A. M. Holtslag. 2004. Influence of soil moisture on boundary layer cloud development. Journal of Hydrometeorology 5(1):86-99. DOI: 10.1175/1525-7541(2004)005<0086:Iosmob>2.0.Co;2.

Entekhabi, D., E. G. Njoku, P. E. O’Neill, K. H. Kellogg, W. T. Crow, W. N. Edelstein, J. K. Entin, S. D. Goodman, T. J. Jackson, J. Johnson, J. Kimball, J. R. Piepmeier, R. D. Koster, N. Martin, K. C. McDonald, M. Moghaddam, S. Moran, R. Reichle, J. C. Shi, M. W. Spencer, S. W. Thurman, L. Tsang and J. Van Zyl. 2010. The soil moisture active passive (SMAP) mission. Proceedings of the IEEE 98(5):704-716. DOI: Doi 10.1109/Jproc.2010.2043918.

Errico, R. M., P. Bauer and J. F. Mahfouf. 2007. Issues regarding the assimilation of cloud and precipitation data. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 64(11):3785-3798. DOI: 10.1175/2006jas2044.1.

Evensen, G. 1994. Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model using Monte-Carlo methods to forecast error statistics. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 99(C5):10143-10162. DOI: 10.1029/94jc00572.

Evensen, G. 2004. Sampling strategies and square root analysis schemes for the EnKF. Ocean Dynamics 54(6):539-560. DOI: 10.1007/s10236-004-0099-2.

Evensen, G. 2009. Data assimilation: The ensemble Kalman filter. Dordrecht: Springer Science & Business Media.

Fairall, C., J. Cummings, T. Jung, N. Gordon, P. Bauer, D. Bromwich, G. Smith, F. Doblas-Reyes, K. Hines, M. Holland, T. Iversen, S. Klebe, P. Lemke, B. Mills, P. Nurmi, I. Renfrew, G. Svensson and M. Tolstykh. 2013. Observational Aspects of the WWRP Polar Prediction Project. Presented at Arctic Observing Summit, April 30-May 2, Vancouver, BC, Canada.

Fairall, C. W., E. F. Bradley, J. E. Hare, A. A. Grachev and J. B. Edson. 2003. Bulk parameterization of air-sea fluxes: Updates and verification for the COARE algorithm. Journal of Climate 16(4):571-591. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0571:Bpoasf>2.0.Co;2.

Farneti, R., T. L. Delworth, A. J. Rosati, S. M. Griffies and F. R. Zeng. 2010. The role of mesoscale eddies in the rectification of the Southern Ocean response to climate change. Journal of Physical Oceanography 40(7):1539-1557. DOI: 10.1175/2010jpo4353.1.

Fennessy, M. J. and J. Shukla. 1999. Impact of initial soil wetness on seasonal atmospheric prediction. Journal of Climate 12(11):3167-3180. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<3167:Ioiswo>2.0.Co;2.

Ferranti, L., T. N. Palmer, F. Molteni and E. Klinker. 1990. Tropical extratropical interaction associated with the 30-60 day oscillation and its impact on medium and extended range prediction. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 47(18):2177-2199. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<2177:Teiawt>2.0.Co;2.

Fiorelli, E., N. E. Leonard, P. Bhatta, D. A. Paley, R. Bachmayer and D. M. Fratantoni. 2006. Multi-AUV control and adaptive sampling in Monterey Bay. IEEE Journal of Oceanic Engineering 31(4):935-948. DOI: 10.1109/Joe.2006.880429.

Fletcher, C. G., P. J. Kushner and J. Cohen. 2007. Stratospheric control of the extratropical circulation response to surface forcing. Geophysical Research Letters 34(21). DOI: 10.1029/2007gl031626.

Fox-Kemper, B., R. Ferrari and R. Hallberg. 2008. Parameterization of mixed layer eddies. Part I: Theory and diagnosis. Journal of Physical Oceanography 38(6):1145-1165. DOI: 10.1175/2007jpo3792.1.

Fox-Kemper, B., G. Danabasoglu, R. Ferrari, S. M. Griffies, R. W. Hallberg, M. M. Holland, M. E. Maltrud, S. Peacock and B. L. Samuels. 2011. Parameterization of mixed layer eddies. Part III: Implementation and impact in global ocean climate simulations. Ocean Modelling 39(1-2):61-78. DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.09.002.

Fox, D. N., W. J.Teague, C. N. Barron, M. R. Carnes and C. M. Lee. 2002.The Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS). Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 19(2):240-252. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0426(2002)019<0240:Tmodas>2.0.Co;2.

Francis, J. A. and S. J. Vavrus. 2012. Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather events in the mid-latitudes. Geophysical Research Letters 39(6). DOI: 10.1029/2012GL051000.

Fudeyasu, H., Y. Q. Wang, M. Satoh, T. Nasuno, H. Miura and W. Yanase. 2008. Global cloud-system-resolving model NICAM successfully simulated the lifecycles of two real tropical cyclones. Geophysical Research Letters 35(22). DOI: 10.1029/2008gl036003.

Gabersek, S., F. X. Giraldo and J. D. Doyle. 2012. Dry and moist idealized experiments with a two-dimensional spectral element model. Monthly Weather Review 140(10):3163-3182. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-11-00144.1.

Gallus, W. A. 2010. Application of object-based verification techniques to ensemble precipitation forecasts. Weather and Forecasting 25(1):144-158. DOI: 10.1175/2009WAF2222274.1.

GAO (Government Accountability Office). 2014. Climate Change Adaptation: DOD Can Improve Infrastructure Planning and Processes to Better Account for Potential Impacts. Washington, DC: GAO.

García-Pando, C. P., M. C. Thomson, M. C. Stanton, P. J. Diggle, T. Hopson, R. Pandya, R. L. Miller, and S. Hugonnet. 2014. Meningitis and climate: from science to practice. Earth Perspectives 1(14). DOI: 10.1186/2194-6434-1-14.

Gaube, P., D. J. McGillicuddy, D. B. Chelton, M. J. Behrenfeld and P. G. Strutton. 2014. Regional variations in the influence of mesoscale ocean eddies on near-surface chlorophyll. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 119(12):8195-8220. DOI: 10.1002/2014JC010111.

Geer, A. J., F. Baordo, N. Bormann and S. English. 2014. All-sky assimilation of microwave humidity sounders. Technical Report 741. Shinfield Park, UK: ECMWF.

Gelb, A. 1974. Applied Optimal Estimation. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Gent, P. R. 2011. The Gent-McWilliams parameterization: 20/20 hindsight. Ocean Modelling 39(1-2):2-9. DOI: 10.1016/j. ocemod.2010.08.002.

Gent, P. R., J. Willebrand, T. J. Mcdougall and J. C. Mcwilliams. 1995. Parameterizing eddy-induced tracer transports in ocean circulation models. Journal of Physical Oceanography 25(4):463-474. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0485(1995)025<0463:Peitti>2.0.Co;2.

Gent, P. R., G. Danabasoglu, L. J. Donner, M. M. Holland, E. C. Hunke, S. R. Jayne, D. M. Lawrence, R. B. Neale, P. J. Rasch, M. Vertenstein, P. H. Worley, Z. L. Yang and M. H. Zhang. 2011. The Community Climate System Model Version 4. Journal of Climate 24(19):4973-4991. DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1.

Gerber, E. P., C. Orbe and L. M. Polvani. 2009. Stratospheric influence on the tropospheric circulation revealed by idealized ensemble forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters 36. DOI: 10.1029/2009gl040913.

Gerber, E. P., A. Butler, N. Calvo, A. Charlton-Perez, M. Giorgetta, E. Manzini, J. Perlwitz, L. M. Polvani, F. Sassi, A. A. Scaife, T. A. Shaw, S. W. Son and S. Watanabe. 2012. Assessing and understanding the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on the earth system. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93(6):845-859. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-11-00145.1.

Ghanem, R. G. and P. D. Spanos. 1991. Stochastic Finite Elements: A Spectral Approach. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.

Gilleland, E., D. D. A. Ahijevych, B. G. Brown and E. E. Ebert. 2010. Verifying forecasts spatially. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91(10):1365-1373. DOI: 10.1175/2010BAMS2819.1.

Giraldo, F. X. and M. Restelli. 2008. A study of spectral element and discontinuous Galerkin methods for the Navier-Stokes equations in nonhydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric modeling: Equation sets and test cases. Journal of Computational Physics 227(8):3849-3877. DOI: 10.1016/j.jcp.2007.12.009.

Gneiting, T. and R. Ranjan. 2011. Comparing density forecasts using threshold- and quantile-weighted scoring rules. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 29(3):411-422. DOI: 10.1198/jbes.2010.08110.

GODAE (Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment). 2009. Special issue on the revolution in global ocean forecasting—the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment: 10 years of achievement. Oceanography 22(3).

GODAE. 2015. Special Issue: GODAE OceanView Part 1. Journal of Operational Oceanography 8(Supplement 1).

Goddard, L., S. J. Mason, S. E. Zebiak, C. F. Ropelewski, R. Basher and M. A. Cane. 2001. Current approaches to seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions. International Journal of Climatology 21(9):1111-1152. DOI: 10.1002/Joc.636.

Goddard, L., W. E. Baethgen, H. Bhojwani and A. W. Robertson. 2014. The International Research Institute for Climate & Society: Why, what and how. Earth Perspectives 1(10). DOI: 10.1186/2194-6434-1-10.

Gottschalck, J., M. Wheeler, K. Weickmann, F. Vitart, N. Savage, H. Lin, H. Hendon, D. Waliser, K. Sperber, M. Nakagawa, C. Prestrelo, M. Flatau and W. Higgins. 2010. a framework for assessing operational Madden-Julian Oscillation forecasts: A CLIVAR MJO Working Group project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91(9):1247-1258. DOI: 10.1175/2010bams2816.1.

Graham, B., W. K. Reilly, F. Beinecke, D. F. Boesch, T. D. Garcia, C. A. Murray and F. Ulmer. 2011. Deep Water: The Gulf Oil Disaster and the Future of Offshore Drilling. Report to the President. National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

Graham, N. E., J. Michaelsen and T. P. Barnett. 1987. An investigation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle with statistical models. 2: Model results. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 92(C13):14271-14289. DOI: 10.1029/Jc092ic13p14271.

Greenwood, B. M., K. Bojang, C. J. M. Whitty, and G. A. T. Targett. 2005. Malaria. Lancet 365(9469):1487-1498. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(05)66420-3.

Greenwood, B. M., I. S. Blakebrough, A. K. Bradley, S. Wali, and H. C. Whittle. 1984. Meningococcal Disease and Season in Sub-Saharan Africa. Lancet 1(8390):1339-1342. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(84)91830-0.

Grell, G. A. and S. R. Freitas. 2014. A scale and aerosol aware stochastic convective parameterization for weather and air quality modeling. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 14(10):5233-5250. DOI: 10.5194/acp-14-5233-2014.

Griffies, S. M., C. Boning, F. O. Bryan, E. P. Chassignet, R. Gerdes, H. Hasumi, A. Hirst, A. M. Treguier and D. Webb. 2000. Developments in ocean climate modelling. Ocean Modelling 2(3-4):123-192. DOI: 10.1016/S1463-5003(00)00014-7.

Griffies, S. M., A. J. Adcroft, H. Banks, C. W. Böning, E. P. Chassignet, G. Danabasoglu, S. Danilov, E. Deleersnijder, H. Drange, M. England, B. Fox-Kemper, R. Gerdes, A. Gnanadesikan, R. J. Greatbatch, R. W. Hallberg, E. Hanert, M. J. Harrison, S. Legg, C. M. Little, G. Madec, S. J. Marsland, M. Nikurashin, A. Pirani, H. L. Simmons, J. Schröter, B. L. Samuels, A.-M. Treguier, J. R. Toggweiler, H. Tsujino, G. K. Vallis and L. White. 2010. Problems and prospects in large-scale ocean circulation models. In OceanObs’ 09 Conference: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society, Vol. 2. Hall, J., D. E. Harrison and D. Stammer, eds.

Griffies, S. M., M. Winton, W. G. Anderson, R. Benson, T. L. Delworth, C. O. Dufour, J. P. Dunne, P. Goddard, A. K. Morrison, A. Rosati, A. T. Wittenberg, J. Yin and R. Zhang. 2015. Impacts on ocean heat from transient mesoscale eddies in a hierarchy of climate models. Journal of Climate 28:952-977. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00353.1.

Griffin, D. and K. J. Anchukaitis. 2014. How unusual is the 2012-2014 California drought? Geophysical Research Letters 41(24):9017-9023. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062433.

Guan, B., N. P. Molotch, D. E. Waliser, E. J. Fetzer and P. J. Neiman. 2010. Extreme snowfall events linked to atmospheric rivers and surface air temperature via satellite measurements. Geophysical Research Letters 37. DOI: 10.1029/2010gl044696.

Guan, B., D. E. Waliser, N. P. Molotch, E. J. Fetzer and P. J. Neiman. 2012. Does the Madden-Julian Oscillation influence wintertime atmospheric rivers and snowpack in the Sierra Nevada? Monthly Weather Review 140(2):325-342. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-11-00087.1.

Guan, B., N. P. Molotch, D. E. Waliser, E. J. Fetzer and P. J. Neiman. 2013. The 2010/2011 snow season in California’s Sierra Nevada: Role of atmospheric rivers and modes of large-scale variability. Water Resources Research 49(10):6731-6743. DOI: 10.1002/wrcr.20537.

Guan, B., T. Lee, D. J. Halkides and D. E. Waliser. 2014. Aquarius surface salinity and the Madden-Julian Oscillation: The role of salinity in surface layer density and potential energy. Geophysical Research Letters 41(8):2858-2869. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059704.

Guemas, V., E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, M. Chevallier, J. J. Day, M. Déqué, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. S. Fučkar, A. Germe, E. Hawkins, S. Keeley, T. Koenigk, D. S. y. Mélia and S. Tietsche. 2014. A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 141(691). DOI: 10.1002/qj.2401.

Guo, Y., D. E. Waliser and X. Jiang. 2015. A systematic relationship between the representations of convectively coupled equatorial wave activity and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in climate model simulations. Journal of Climate 28(1881-1904). DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00485.1.

Guo, Z. C., P. A. Dirmeyer and T. DelSole. 2011. Land surface impacts on subseasonal and seasonal predictability. Geophysical Research Letters 38. DOI: 10.1029/2011gl049945.

Guo, Z. C., P. A. Dirmeyer, T. DelSole and R. D. Koster. 2012. Rebound in atmospheric predictability and the role of the land surface. Journal of Climate 25(13):4744-4749. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00651.1.

Hackert, E., J. Ballabrera-Poy, A. J. Busalacchi, R. H. Zhang and R. Murtugudde. 2011. Impact of sea surface salinity assimilation on coupled forecasts in the tropical Pacific.Journal of Geophysical Research—Oceans 116.DOI:10.1029/2010jc006708.

Hackert, E., A. J. Busalacchi and J. Ballabrera-Poy. 2014. Impact of Aquarius sea surface salinity observations on coupled forecasts for the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 119(7):4045-4067. DOI: 10.1002/2013JC009697.

Hagedorn, R., F. J. Doblas-Reyes and T. N. Palmer. 2005. The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting—I. Basic concept. Tellus Series A—Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 57(3):219-233. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00103.x.

Haley, P. J., P. F. J. Lermusiaux, A. R. Robinson, W. G. Leslie, O. Logoutov, G. Cossarini, X. S. Liang, P. Moreno, S. R. Ramp, J. D. Doyle, J. Bellingham, F. Chavez and S. Johnston. 2009. Forecasting and reanalysis in the Monterey Bay/California current region for the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network-II experiment. Deep-Sea Research Part II—Topical Studies in Oceanography 56(3-5):127-148. DOI: 10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.08.010.

Hallberg, R. 2013. Using a resolution function to regulate parameterizations of oceanic mesoscale eddy effects. Ocean Modelling 72:92-103. DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.08.007.

Hallberg, R. and A. Gnanadesikan. 2006. The role of eddies in determining the structure and response of the wind-driven Southern Hemisphere overturning: Results from the Modeling Eddies in the Southern Ocean (MESO) project. Journal of Physical Oceanography 36(12):2232-2252. DOI: 10.1175/Jpo2980.1.

Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, and S. L. Mullen. 2006. Reforecasts - An important dataset for improving weather predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87(1):33-46. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-87-1-33.

Hamilton, K. and R. A. Vincent. 1995. High-resolution radiosonde data offer new prospects for research. Eos Transactions AGU 76(49). DOI: 10.1029/95EO00308.

Hansen, J. W., A. Challinor, A. Ines, T. Wheeler and V. Moron. 2006. Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges. Climate Research 33(1):27-41. DOI: 10.3354/Cr033027.

Hansen, J. W., S. J. Mason, L. Q. Sun and A. Tall. 2011. Review of seasonal climate forecasting for agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa. Experimental Agriculture 47(2):205-240. DOI: 10.1017/S0014479710000876.

Harcourt, R. R. 2015. An Improved Second-Moment Closure Model of Langmuir Turbulence. Journal of Physical Oceanography 45(1):84-103. DOI: 10.1175/Jpo-D-14-0046.1.

Hartmann, H. C. 2005. Use of climate information in water resources management. In Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences. M. G. Anderson, ed. West Sussex, UK: John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Hartmann, D. L. 2015. Pacific sea surface temperature and the winter of 2014. GeophysicalResearchLetters 42(6): 1894-1902. DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063083.

Hartmann, H. C., T. C. Pagano, S. Sorooshian and R. Bales. 2002. Confidence builders—Evaluating seasonal climate forecasts from user perspectives. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83(5):683-+. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<0683:Cbescf>2.3.Co;2.

Hazeleger, W., C. Severijns, T. Semmler, S. Stefanescu, S. T. Yang, X. L. Wang, K. Wyser, E. Dutra, J. M. Baldasano, R. Bintanja, P. Bougeault, R. Caballero, A. M. L. Ekman, J. H. Christensen, B. van den Hurk, P. Jimenez, C. Jones, P. Kallberg, T. Koenigk, R. McGrath, P. Miranda, T. Van Noije, T. Palmer, J. A. Parodi, T. Schmith, F. Selten, T. Storelvmo, A. Sterl, H. Tapamo, M. Vancoppenolle, P. Viterbo and U. Willen. 2010. EC-Earth: A seamless Earth-system prediction approach in action. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91(10):1357-1363. DOI: 10.1175/2010BAMS2877.1.

Hecht, M. W. and H. Hasumi, ed. 2013. Ocean Modeling in an Eddying Regime. Geophysical Monograph Series, Vol. 177. Washington, DC: American Geophysical Union.

Hendon, H. H., B. Liebmann, M. Newman, J. D. Glick and J. E. Schemm. 2000. Medium-range forecast errors associated with active episodes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review 128(1):69-86. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0069:Mrfeaw>2.0.Co;2.

Hirons, L. C., P. Inness, F. Vitart and P. Bechtold. 2013. Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part I: The representation of the MJO. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 139(675):1417-1426. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2060.

Hirota, N., Y. N. Takayabu, M. Watanabe and M. Kimoto. 2011. Precipitation reproducibility over tropical oceans and its relationship to the double ITCZ problem in CMIP3 and MIROC5 Climate Models. Journal of Climate 24(18):4859-4873. DOI: 10.1175/2011jcli4156.1.

Hitchens, N. M., H. E. Brooks and M. P. Kay. 2013. Objective limits on forecasting skill of rare events. Weather and Forecasting 28(2):525-534. DOI: 10.1175/Waf-D-12-00113.1.

Hoerling, M. P. and A. Kumar. 2000. Understanding and predicting extratropical teleconnections related to ENSO. In El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Multi-scale Variations and Global and Regional Impacts. H. F. Diaz and V. Markgraf, eds. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Holland, M. M., D. A. Bailey, B. P. Briegleb, B. Light and E. Hunke. 2012. improved sea ice shortwave radiation physics in CCSM4: The impact of melt ponds and aerosols on Arctic sea ice. Journal of Climate 25(5):1413-1430. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00078.1.

Holland, M. M., E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, J. Kay and S. Vavrus. 2013. Initial-value predictability of Antarctic sea ice in the Community Climate System Model 3. Geophysical Research Letters 40(10):2121-2124. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50410.

Holloway, C. E., S. J. Woolnough and G. M. S. Lister. 2013. The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part I: Characterization of large-scale organization and propagation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 70(5):1342-1369. DOI: 10.1175/Jas-D-12-0227.1.

Holloway, C. E., J. C. Petch, R. J. Beare, P. Bechtold, G. C. Craig, S. H. Derbyshire, L. J. Donner, P. R. Field, S. L. Gray, J. H. Marsham, D. J. Parker, R. S. Plant, N. M. Roberts, D. M. Schultz, A. J. Stirling and S. J. Woolnough. 2014. Understanding and representing atmospheric convection across scales: Recommendations from the meeting held at Dartington Hall, Devon, UK, 28-30 January 2013. Atmospheric Science Letters 15(4):348-353. DOI: 10.1002/Asl2.508.

Horel, J. D. and J. M. Wallace. 1981. Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review 109(4):813-829. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0813:Psapaw>2.0.Co;2.

Hoskins, B. 2013. The potential for skill across the range of the seamless weather-climate prediction problem: A stimulus for our science. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 139(672):573-584. DOI: 10.1002/qj.1991.

Hoskins, B. and T. Woollings. 2015. Persistent extratropical regimes and climate extremes. Current Climate Change Reports 1(3):115-124. DOI: 10.1007/s40641-015-0020-8.

Hoskins, B. J. and D. J. Karoly. 1981. The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 38(6):1179-1196. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1981)038<1179:Tslroa>2.0.Co;2.

Hou, A. Y., R. K. Kakar, S. Neeck, A. A. Azarbarzin, C. D. Kummerow, M. Kojima, R. Oki, K. Nakamura and T. Iguchi. 2014. The Global Precipitation Measurement Mission. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95(5):701-+. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-13-00164.1.

Houtekamer, P. L. and H. L. Mitchell. 1998. Data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter technique. Monthly Weather Review 126(3):796-811. DOI: Doi 10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<0796:Dauaek>2.0.Co;2.

Houze, R. A. and A. K. Betts. 1981. Convection in GATE. Reviews of Geophysics 19(4):541-576.DOI:10.1029/Rg019i004p00541.

Hung, M. P., J. L. Lin, W. Q. Wang, D. Kim, T. Shinoda and S. J. Weaver. 2013. MJO and convectively coupled equatorial waves simulated by CMIP5 climate models. Journal of Climate 26(17):6185-6214. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00541.1.

Hunke, E. C., D. Notz, A. K. Turner and M. Vancoppenolle. 2011. The multiphase physics of sea ice: A review for model developers. Cryosphere 5(4):989-1009. DOI: 10.5194/tc-5-989-2011.

Hurrell, J., G. A. Meehl, D. Bader, T. L. Delworth, B. Kirtman and B. Wielicki. 2009. A unified modeling approach to climate system prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90(12):1819-1832. DOI: 10.1175/2009BAMS2752.1.

Hurrell, J. W., M. M. Holland, P. R. Gent, S. Ghan, J. E. Kay, P. J. Kushner, J. F. Lamarque, W. G. Large, D. Lawrence, K. Lindsay, W. H. Lipscomb, M. C. Long, N. Mahowald, D. R. Marsh, R. B. Neale, P. Rasch, S. Vavrus, M. Vertenstein, D. Bader, W. D. Collins, J. J. Hack, J. Kiehl and S. Marshall. 2013. The Community Earth System Model: A framework for collaborative research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94(9):1339-1360. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-12-00121.1.

Inness, P. M. and J. M. Slingo. 2006. The interaction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with the Maritime Continent in a GCM. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 132(618):1645-1667. DOI: 10.1256/qj.05.102.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press.

Jacobs, G. A., R. Woodham, D. Jourdan and J. Braithwaite. 2009. GODAE applications useful to navies throughout the world. Oceanography 22(3):182-189. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2009.77.

Jacobs, G. A., J. G. Richman, J. D. Doyle, P. L. Spence, B. P. Bartels, C. N. Barron, R. W. Helber and F. L. Bub. 2014. Simulating conditional deterministic predictability within ocean frontogenesis. Ocean Modelling 78:1-16. DOI: 10.1016/j. ocemod.2014.02.004.

Jakob, C. 2010. Accelerating progress in global atmospheric model development through improved parameterizations challenges, opportunities, and strategies. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91(7):869-+. DOI: 10.1175/2009bams2898.1.

Jancloes, M., M. Thomson, M. M. Costa, C. Hewitt, C. Corvalan, T. Dinku, R. Lowe and M. Hayden. 2014. Climate services to improve public health. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 11(5):4555-4559. DOI: 10.3390/ijerph110504555.

Jazwinski, A. H. 1970. Stochastic processes and filtering theory. New York: Academic Press.

Jeong, J. H., H. W. Linderholm, S. H. Woo, C. Folland, B. M. Kim, S. J. Kim and D. L. Chen. 2013. Impacts of snow initialization on subseasonal forecasts of surface air temperature for the cold season. Journal of Climate 26(6):1956-1972. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00159.1.

Jiang, X. A., M. Zhao and D. E. Waliser. 2012a. Modulation of tropical cyclones over the Eastern Pacific by the intraseasonal variability simulated in an AGCM. Journal of Climate 25(19):6524-6538. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00531.1.

Jiang, X. N., D. E. Waliser, D. Kim, M. Zhao, K. R. Sperber, W. F. Stern, S. D. Schubert, G. J. Zhang, W. Q. Wang, M. Khairoutdinov, R. B. Neale and M. I. Lee. 2012b. Simulation of the intraseasonal variability over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ in climate models. Climate Dynamics 39(3-4):617-636. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1098-x.

Jin, E. K., J. L. Kinter, B. Wang, C. K. Park, I. S. Kang, B. P. Kirtman, J. S. Kug, A. Kumar, J. J. Luo, J. Schemm, J. Shukla and T. Yamagata. 2008. Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Climate Dynamics 31(6):647-664. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-008-0397-3.

Johnson, A., X. G. Wang, F. Y. Kong and M. Xue. 2013. Object-based evaluation of the impact of horizontal grid spacing on convection-allowing forecasts. Monthly Weather Review 141(10):3413-3425. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-13-00027.1.

Johnson, C. and N. Bowler. 2009. On the reliability and calibration of ensemble forecasts. Monthly Weather Review 137(5):1717-1720. DOI: 10.1175/2009mwr2715.1.

Johnson, N. C., D. C. Collins, S. B. Feldstein, M. L. L’Heureux and E. E. Riddle. 2014. Skillful wintertime North American temperature forecasts out to 4 weeks based on the state of ENSO and the MJO. Weather and Forecasting 29(1):23-38. DOI: 10.1175/Waf-D-13-00102.1.

Jones, A. E. and A. P. Morse. 2010. Application and validation of a seasonal ensemble prediction system using a dynamic malaria model. Journal of Climate 23(15):4202-4215. DOI: 10.1175/2010jcli3208.1.

Jones, A. E. and A. P. Morse. 2012. Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa.Geophysical Research Letters 39. DOI: 10.1029/2012gl054040.

Jones, C., D. E. Waliser, J. K. E. Schemm and W. K. M. Lau. 2000. Prediction skill of the Madden and Julian Oscillation in dynamical extended range forecasts. Climate Dynamics 16(4):273-289. DOI: 10.1007/s003820050327.

Joslyn, S. and S. Savelli. 2010. Communicating forecast uncertainty: Public perception of weather forecast uncertainty. Meteorological Applications 17(2):180-195. DOI: 10.1002/met.190.

Jung, T., M. J. Miller, T. N. Palmer, P. Towers, N. Wedi, D. Achuthavarier, J. M. Adams, E. L. Altshuler, B. A. Cash, J. L. Kinter, L. Marx, C. Stan and K. I. Hodges. 2012. High-resolution global climate simulations with the ECMWF model in Project Athena: Experimental design, model climate, and seasonal forecast skill. Journal of Climate 25(9):3155-3172. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00265.1.

Jung, T., M. A. Kasper, T. Semmler and S. Serrar. 2014. Arctic influence on subseasonal midlatitude prediction. Geophysical Research Letters 41(10):3676-3680. DOI: 10.1002/2014gl059961.

Jutla, A. S., A. S. Akanda, J. K. Griffiths, R. Colwell and S. Islam. 2011. Warming oceans, phytoplankton, and river discharge: Implications for cholera outbreaks. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 85(2):303-308. DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2011.11-0181.

Kalman, R. E. 1960. A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems. Transactions of the ASME—Journal of Basic Engineering 82(Series D):35-45.

Kalnay, E. 2003. Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation, and predictability. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Kang, I. S., and H. M. Kim. 2010. Assessment of MJO Predictability for Boreal Winter with Various Statistical and Dynamical Models. Journal of Climate 23(9):2368-2378. DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3288.1.

Kang, J. S., E. Kalnay,T. Miyoshi, J. J. Liu and I. Fung. 2012. Estimation of surface carbon fluxes with an advanced data assimilation methodology. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres 117. DOI: 10.1029/2012jd018259.

Karna, T., V. Legat, E. Deleersnijder and H. Burchard. 2012. Coupling of a discontinuous Galerkin finite element marine model with a finite difference turbulence closure model. Ocean Modelling 47:55-64. DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.01.001.

Karna, T., V. Legat and E. Deleersnijder. 2013. A baroclinic discontinuous Galerkin finite element model for coastal flows. Ocean Modelling 61:1-20. DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2012.09.009.

Katz, M. L. and C. Shapiro. 1985. Network externalities, competition, and compatibility. American Economic Review 75(3):424-440.

Kauker, F., C. Koberle, R. Gerdes and M. Karcher. 2008. Modeling the 20th century Arctic Ocean/Sea ice system: Reconstruction of surface forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 113(C9). DOI: 10.1029/2006jc004023.

Kelly-Hope, L. and M. C. Thomson. 2008. Climate and infectious diseases. In Seasonal Forecasts, Climatic Change and Human Health. M. C. Thomson, R. Garcia-Herrera, and M. Beniston, eds. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands.

Kerr, Y. H., P. Waldteufel, J. P. Wigneron, S. Delwart, F. Cabot, J. Boutin, M. J. Escorihuela, J. Font, N. Reul, C. Gruhier, S. E. Juglea, M. R. Drinkwater, A. Hahne, M. Martin-Neira and S. Mecklenburg. 2010. The SMOS mission: New tool for monitoring key elements of the global water cycle. Proceedings of the IEEE 98(5):666-687. DOI: 10.1109/Jproc.2010.2043032.

Khairoutdinov, M. F. and D. A. Randall. 2001. A cloud resolving model as a cloud parameterization in the NCAR Community Climate System Model: Preliminary results.Geophysical Research Letters 28(18):3617-3620.DOI: 10.1029/2001gl013552.

Kharin, V. V. and F. W. Zwiers. 2002. Climate predictions with multimodel ensembles. Journal of Climate 15(7):793-799. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0793:Cpwme>2.0.Co;2.

Kharin, V. V. and F. W. Zwiers. 2003. On the ROC score of probability forecasts. Journal of Climate 16(24):4145-4150. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<4145:Otrsop>2.0.Co;2.

Khon, V. C., I. I. Mokhov, M. Latif, V. A. Semenov and W. Park. 2010. Perspectives of Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage in the twenty-first century. Climatic Change 100(3-4):757-768. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9683-2.

Kiehl, J. T., J. J. Hack, G. B. Bonan, B. A. Boville, D. L. Williamson and P. J. Rasch. 1998. The National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model: CCM3. Journal of Climate 11(6):1131-1149. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<1131:Tncfar>2.0.Co;2.

Kim, H. M., P. J. Webster and J. A. Curry. 2012. Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter. Climate Dynamics 39(12):2957-2973. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1364-6.

Kinter, J. L., B. Cash, D. Achuthavarier, J. Adams, E. Altshuler, P. Dirmeyer, B. Doty, B. Huang, E. K. Jin, L. Marx, J. Manganello, C. Stan, T. Wakefield, T. Palmer, M. Hamrud, T. Jung, M. Miller, P. Towers, N. Wedi, M. Satoh, H. Tomita, C. Kodama, T. Nasuno, K. Oouchi, Y. Yamada, H. Taniguchi, P. Andrews, T. Baer, M. Ezell, C. Halloy, D. John, B. Loftis, R. Mohr and K. Wong. 2013. Revolutionizing climate modeling with Project Athena: A multi-institutional, international collaboration. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94(2):231-245. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-11-00043.1.

Kirtman, B. 2014. Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability. Presented to the Committee on Developing a U.S. Research Agenda to Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting, National Research Council, October 7, 2014, Washington, DC.

Kirtman, B. P. 2003. The COLA anomaly coupled model: Ensemble ENSO prediction. Monthly Weather Review 131(10):2324-2341. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<2324:Tcacme>2.0.Co;2.

Kirtman, B. P., C. Bitz, F. Bryan, W. Collins, J. Dennis, N. Hearn, J. L. Kinter, R. Loft, C. Rousset, L. Siqueira, C. Stan, R. Tomas and M. Vertenstein. 2012. Impact of ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations. Climate Dynamics 39(6):1303-1328. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1500-3.

Kirtman, B. P., D. Min, J. M. Infanti, J. L. Kinter, D. A. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S. Saha, M. P. Mendez, E. Becker, P. T. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. G. DeWitt, M. K. Tippett, A. G. Barnston, S. H. Li, A. Rosati, S. D. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. E. Li, J. Marshak, Y .K. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. J. Merryfield, B. Denis and E. F. Wood. 2014. The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95(4):585-601. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-12-00050.1.

Kleist, D. T., D. F. Parrish, J. C. Derber, R. Treadon, W. S. Wu and S. Lord. 2009. Introduction of the GSI into the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System. Weather and Forecasting 24(6):1691-1705. DOI: 10.1175/2009WAF2222201.1.

Kleist, D. T. and K. Ide. 2015. An OSSE-based evaluation of hybrid variational-ensemble data assimilation for the NCEP GFS. Part II: 4DEnVar and hybrid variants. Monthly Weather Review 143(2):452-470. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-13-00350.1.

Klingaman, N. P., B. Hanson and D. J. Leathers. 2008. A teleconnection between forced Great Plains snow cover and European winter climate. Journal of Climate 21(11):2466-2483. DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI1672.1.

Kloeden, P. E. and E. Platen. 1999. Numerical solution of stochastic differential equations. Berlin; New York: Springer.

Klopper, E., C. H. Vogel and W. A. Landman. 2006. Seasonal climate forecasts—Potential agricultural-risk management tools? Climatic Change 76(1-2):73-90. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-005-9019-9.

Kogge, P., K. Bergman, S. Borkar, D. Campbell, W. Carlson, W. Dally, M. Denneau, P. Franzon, W. Harrod, K. Hill, J. Hiller, S. Karp, S. Keckler, D. Klein, R. Lucas, M. Richards, A. Scarpelli, S. Scott, A. Snavely, T. Sterling, R. S. Williams and K. Yelick. 2008. ExaScale Computing Study: Technology Challenges in Achieving Exascale Systems. Exascale Study Group, University of Notre Dame.

Kondrashov, D., C. J. Sun and M. Ghil. 2008. Data assimilation for a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Part II: Parameter estimation. Monthly Weather Review 136(12):5062-5076. DOI: 10.1175/2008mwr2544.1.

Konings, A. G., D. Entekhabi, M. Moghaddam and S. S. Saatchi. 2014. The effect of variable soil moisture profiles on P-Band backscatter. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 52(10):6315-6325. DOI: 10.1109/Tgrs.2013.2296035.

Kosaka, Y., S. P. Xie, N. C. Lau and G. A. Vecchi. 2013. Origin of seasonal predictability for summer climate over the Northwestern Pacific. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 110(19):7574-7579. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1215582110.

Koster, R. D., P. A. Dirmeyer, Z. C. Guo, G. Bonan, E. Chan, P. Cox, C. T. Gordon, S. Kanae, E. Kowalczyk, D. Lawrence, P. Liu, C. H. Lu, S. Malyshev, B. McAvaney, K. Mitchell, D. Mocko, T. Oki, K. Oleson, A. Pitman, Y. C. Sud, C. M. Taylor, D. Verseghy, R. Vasic, Y. K. Xue, T. Yamada and G. Team. 2004. Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science 305(5687):1138-1140. DOI: 10.1126/science.1100217.

Koster, R. D. and G. K. Walker. 2015. Interactive vegetation phenology, soil moisture, and monthly temperature forecasts. Journal of Hydrometeorology 16(4):1456-1465. DOI: 10.1175/Jhm-D-14-0205.1.

Koster, R. D., S. P. P. Mahanama, T. J. Yamada, G. Balsamo, A. A. Berg, M. Boisserie, P. A. Dirmeyer, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, G. Drewitt, C. T. Gordon, Z. Guo, J. H. Jeong, D. M. Lawrence, W. S. Lee, Z. Li, L. Luo, S. Malyshev, W. J. Merryfield, S. I. Seneviratne, T. Stanelle, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, F. Vitart and E. F. Wood. 2010. Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment. Geophysical Research Letters 37. DOI: 10.1029/2009gl041677.

Koster, R. D., S. P. P. Mahanama, T. J. Yamada, G. Balsamo, A. A. Berg, M. Boisserie, P. A. Dirmeyer, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, G. Drewitt, C. T. Gordon, Z. Guo, J. H. Jeong, W. S. Lee, Z. Li, L. Luo, S. Malyshev, W. J. Merryfield, S. I. Seneviratne, T. Stanelle, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, F. Vitart and E. F. Wood. 2011. The second phase of the global land-atmosphere coupling experiment: Soil moisture contributions to subseasonal forecast skill. Journal of Hydrometeorology 12(5):805-822. DOI: 10.1175/2011JHM1365.1.

Koster, R. D., Y. H. Chang and S. D. Schubert. 2014. A mechanism for land-atmosphere feedback involving planetary wave structures. Journal of Climate 27(24):9290-9301. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-14-00315.1.

Krishnamurti, T. N., C. M. Kishtawal, Z. Zhang, T. LaRow, D. Bachiochi, E. Williford, S. Gadgil and S. Surendran. 2000. Multimodel ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate. Journal of Climate 13(23):4196-4216. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4196:Meffwa>2.0.Co;2.

Kug, J. S., J.Y. Lee, I. S. Kang, B. Wang and C. K. Park. 2008. Optimal multi-model ensemble method in seasonal climate prediction. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 44(3):259-267.

Kuhl, D. D., T. E. Rosmond, C. H. Bishop, J. McLay and N. L. Baker. 2013. Comparison of Hybrid Ensemble/4DVar and 4DVar within the NAVDAS-AR Data Assimilation Framework. Monthly Weather Review 141(8):2740-2758. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-12-00182.1.

Kuhn, K., D. Campbell-Lendrum, A. Haines and J. Cox. 2005. Using climate to predict infectious disease epidemics. Geneva: World Health Organization.

Kumar, S., P. A. Dirmeyer, D. M. Lawrence, T. DelSole, E. L. Altshuler, B. A. Cash, M. J. Fennessy, Z. C. Guo, J. L. Kinter and D. M. Straus. 2014. Effects of realistic land surface initializations on subseasonal to seasonal soil moisture and temperature predictability in North America and in changing climate simulated by CCSM4. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres 119(23):13250-13270. DOI: 10.1002/2014JD022110.

Kumar, S. V., C. D. Peters-Lidard, Y. Tian, P. R. Houser, J. Geiger, S. Olden, L. Lighty, J. L. Eastman, B. Doty, P. Dirmeyer, J. Adams, K. Mitchell, E. F. Wood and J. Sheffield. 2006. Land information system: An interoperable framework for high resolution land surface modeling. Environmental Modelling & Software 21(10):1402-1415. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.07.004.

Kurtz, N., J. Richter-Menge, S. Farrell, M. Studinger, J. Paden, J. Sonntag and J. Yungel. 2013. IceBridge airborne survey data support arctic sea ice predictions. Eos,Transactions American Geophysical Union 94(4):41. DOI: 10.1002/2013eo040001.

Kushnir, Y., W. A. Robinson, I. Blade, N. M. J. Hall, S. Peng and R. Sutton. 2002. Atmospheric GCM response to extratropical SST anomalies: Synthesis and evaluation. Journal of Climate 15(16):2233-2256. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2233:Agrtes>2.0.Co;2.

Kwok, R. and G. F. Cunningham. 2008. ICESat over Arctic sea ice: Estimation of snow depth and ice thickness. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 113(C8). DOI: 10.1029/2008jc004753.

Kwok, R., H. J. Zwally and D. H. Yi. 2004. ICESat observations of Arctic sea ice: A first look. Geophysical Research Letters 31(16). DOI: 10.1029/2004gl020309.

Lagerloef, G. S. E., G. T. Mitchum, R. B. Lukas and P. P. Niiler. 1999. Tropical Pacific near-surface currents estimated from altimeter, wind,and drifter data. Journal of Geophysical Research—Oceans 104(C10):23313-23326.DOI:10.1029/1999jc900197.

Lahoz, W. A. and P. Schneider. 2014. Data assimilation: Making sense of Earth Observation. Frontiers in Environmental Science 2(16). DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00016.

Laloyaux, P., M. Balmaseda, D. Dee, K. Mogensen and P. Janssen. 2016. A coupled data assimilation system for climate reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142(694):65-78. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2629.

Lambrechts, L., K. P. Paaijmans, T. Fansiri, L. B. Carrington, L. D. Kramer, M. B. Thomas and T. W. Scott. 2011. Impact of daily temperature fluctuations on dengue virus transmission by Aedes aegypti. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 108(18):7460-7465. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1101377108.

Langmann, B., K. Zaksek, M. Hort and S. Duggen. 2010. Volcanic ash as fertiliser for the surface ocean. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10(8):3891-3899.

Lasswell, H. D. 1971. A Pre-View of Policy Sciences. New York: American Elsevier.

Latif, M., D. Anderson, T. Barnett, M. Cane, R. Kleeman, A. Leetmaa, J. O’Brien, A. Rosati and E. Schneider. 1998. A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 103(C7):14375-14393. DOI: 10.1029/97jc03413.

Lau, W. K.-M. and D. E. Waliser. 2011. Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere-ocean climate system. Berlin: Springer Verlag.

Lauderdale, J. M., C. Caminade, A. E. Heath, A. E. Jones, D. A. MacLeod, K. C. Gouda, U. S. Murty, P. Goswami, S. R. Mutheneni and A. P. Morse. 2014. Towards seasonal forecasting of malaria in India. Malaria Journal 13.DOI:10.1186/1475-2875-13-310.

Laxon, S. W., K. A. Giles, A. L. Ridout, D. J. Wingham, R. Willatt, R. Cullen, R. Kwok, A. Schweiger, J. L. Zhang, C. Haas, S. Hendricks, R. Krishfield, N. Kurtz, S. Farrell and M. Davidson. 2013. CryoSat-2 estimates of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume. Geophysical Research Letters 40(4):732-737. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50193.

Lazo, J. K., M. Lawson, P. H. Larsen and D. M. Waldman. 2011. US economic sensitivity to weather variability. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 92(6):709-720. DOI: 10.1175/2011BAMS2928.1.

Le Maître, O. P. and O. M. Knio. 2010. Spectral methods for uncertainty quantification with applications to computational fluid dynamics. Dordrecht, Netherlands; New York: Springer.

Le Traon, P. Y., Y. Faugere, F. Hernandez, J. Dorandeu, F. Mertz and M. Ablain. 2003. Can we merge GEOSAT Follow-On with TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-2 for an improved description of the ocean circulation? Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 20(6):889-895. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0426(2003)020<0889:Cwmgfw>2.0.Co;2.

Lebel, T., D. J. Parker, C. Flamant, B. Bourles, B. Marticorena, E. Mougin, C. Peugeot, A. Diedhiou, J. M. Haywood, J. B. Ngamini, J. Polcher, J. L. Redelsperger and C. D. Thorncroft. 2010. The AMMA field campaigns: Multiscale and multidisciplinary observations in the West African region. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 136:8-33. DOI: 10.1002/qj.486.

LeDimet, F. X. and O. Talagrand. 1986. Variational algorithms for analysis and assimilation of meteorological observations: Theoretical aspects. Tellus Series A—Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 38(2):97-110. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.1986.tb00459.x.

Lee, C. M., S. Cole, M. Doble, L. Freitag, P. Hwang, S. Jayne, M. Jeffries, R. Krishfield, T. Maksym, W. Maslowski, B. Owens, P. Posey, L. Rainville, A. Roberts, B. Shaw, T. Stanton, J. Thomson, M.-L. Timmermans, J. Toole, P. Wadhams, J. Wilkinson and Z. Zhang. 2012. Marginal ice zone (MIZ) program: Science and experiment plan. Technical Report APL-UW 1201. Seattle, WA: Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington.

Lee, S. K., P. N. DiNezio, E. S. Chung, S. W. Yeh, A. T. Wittenberg and C. Z. Wang. 2014. Spring persistence, transition, and resurgence of El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters 41(23):8578-8585. DOI: 10.1002/2014gl062484.

Lemke, P., E. W. Trinkl and K. Hasselmann. 1980. Stochastic dynamic analysis of polar sea ice variability. Journal of Physical Oceanography 10(12):2100-2120. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0485(1980)010<2100:Sdaops>2.0.Co;2.

Lemos, M. C. 2008.What influences innovation adoption by water managers? Climate information use in Brazil and the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 44(6):1388-1396. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00231.x.

Lemos, M. C. and B. J. Morehouse. 2005. The co-production of science and policy in integrated climate assessments. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 15(1):57-68. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.09.004.

Lemos, M. C. and R. B. Rood. 2010. Climate projections and their impact on policy and practice. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews—Climate Change 1(5):670-682. DOI: 10.1002/Wcc.71.

Lemos, M. C., C. J. Kirchhoff and V. Ramprasad. 2012. Narrowing the climate information usability gap. Nature Climate Change 2(11):789-794. DOI: 10.1038/Nclimate1614.

Leonard, N. E., D. A. Paley, F. Lekien, R. Sepulchre, D. M. Fratantoni and R. E. Davis. 2007. Collective motion, sensor networks, and ocean sampling. Proceedings of the IEEE 95(1):48-74. DOI: 10.1109/Jproc.2006.887295.

Leonard, N. E., D. A. Paley, R. E. Davis, D. M. Fratantoni, F. Lekien and F. M. Zhang. 2010. Coordinated control of an underwater glider fleet in an adaptive ocean sampling field experiment in Monterey Bay. Journal of Field Robotics 27(6):718-740. DOI: 10.1002/Rob.20366.

Lermusiaux, P. F. J. 1999. Data assimilation via error subspace statistical estimation. Part II: Middle Atlantic Bight shelfbreak front simulations and ESSE validation. Monthly Weather Review 127(7):1408-1432. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<1408:Davess>2.0.Co;2.

Lermusiaux, P. F. J. 2001. Evolving the subspace of the three-dimensional multiscale ocean variability: Massachusetts Bay. Journal of Marine Systems 29(1-4):385-422. DOI: 10.1016/S0924-7963(01)00025-2.

Lermusiaux, P. F. J. 2006. Uncertainty estimation and prediction for interdisciplinary ocean dynamics. Journal of Computational Physics 217(1):176-199. DOI: 10.1016/j.jcp.2006.02.010.

Lermusiaux, P. F. J. 2007. Adaptive modeling, adaptive data assimilation and adaptive sampling. Physica D—Nonlinear Phenomena 230(1-2):172-196. DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2007.02.014.

Lermusiaux, P. F. J. and A. R. Robinson. 1999. Data assimilation via error subspace statistical estimation. Part I: Theory and schemes. Monthly Weather Review 127(7):1385-1407. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<1385:Davess>2.0.Co;2.

Lermusiaux, P. F. J., C.-S. Chiu, G. G. Gawarkiewicz, P. Abbot, A. R. Robinson, R. N. Miller, P. J. Haley, W. G. Leslie, S. J. Majumdar, A. Pang and F. Lekien. 2006. Quantifying uncertainties in ocean predictions. Oceanography 19(1):92-105. DOI: 10.5670/oceanog.2006.93.

Lermusiaux, P. F. J., P. J. Haley, W. G. Leslie, A. Agarwal, O. G. Logutov and L. J. Burton. 2011. Multiscale Physical and Biological Dynamics in the Philippine Archipelago: Predictions and Processes. Oceanography 24(1):70-89. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2011.05.

Lermusiaux, P. F. J., T. Lolla, P. J. Haley Jr., K.Yigit, M. P. Ueckermann, T. Sondergaard and W. G. Leslie. 2015. Science of Autonomy: Time-Optimal Path Planning and Adaptive Sampling for Swarms of Ocean Vehicles. In Springer Handbook of Ocean Engineering: Autonomous Ocean Vehicles, Subsystems and Control. T. Curtin, ed. New York: Springer (in press).

Letson, D., D. Sutter and J. Lazo. 2007. Economic value of hurricane forecasts: An overview and research needs. Natural Hazards Review 8(3):78-86. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2007)8:3(78).

Li, G. and S. P. Xie. 2014. Tropical biases in CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: The excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue and double ITCZ problems. Journal of Climate 27(4):1765-1780. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-13-00337.1.

Li, M., K. Zahariev and C. Garrett. 1995. Role of Langmuir circulation in the deepening of the ocean surface mixed-layer. Science 270(5244):1955-1957. DOI: 10.1126/science.270.5244.1955.

Li, Q., A. Webb, B. Fox-Kemper, A. Craig, G. Danabasoglu, W. G. Large and M. Vertenstein. 2015. Langmuir mixing effects on global climate: WAVEWATCH III in CESM. Ocean Modelling. DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.07.020.

Li, R. and R. Ghanem. 1998. Adaptive polynomial chaos expansions applied to statistics of extremes in nonlinear random vibration. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics 13(2):125-136. DOI: 10.1016/S0266-8920(97)00020-9.

Li, Y. P. and R. E. Carbone. 2012. Excitation of rainfall over the tropical Western Pacific. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 69(10):2983-2994. DOI: 10.1175/Jas-D-11-0245.1.

Lien, G.-Y., T. Miyoshi and E. Kalnay. 2015. Assimilation of TRMM multi satellite precipitation analysis with a low-resolution NCPE global forecast system. Monthly Weather Review. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0149.1.

Lin, H. and G. Brunet. 2009.The influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Canadian wintertime surface air temperature. Monthly Weather Review 137(7):2250-2262. DOI: 10.1175/2009mwr2831.1.

Lin, H., G. Brunet and J. Derome. 2008. Forecast skill of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in two Canadian atmospheric models. Monthly Weather Review 136(11):4130-4149. DOI: 10.1175/2008mwr2459.1.

Lin, H., G. Brunet and J. Derome. 2009. An observed connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Journal of Climate 22(2):364-380. DOI: 10.1175/2008jcli2515.1.

Lin, H., G. Brunet and J. S. Fontecilla. 2010. Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the intraseasonal forecast skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters 37. DOI: 10.1029/2010gl044315.

Lindsay, R. and A. Schweiger. 2015. Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations. Cryosphere 9(1):269-283. DOI: 10.5194/tc-9-269-2015.

Lindsay, R. W. and J. Zhang. 2006. Assimilation of ice concentration in an ice-ocean model. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 23(5):742-749. DOI: 10.1175/Jtech1871.1.

Lindsay, R. W., J. Zhang, A. J. Schweiger and M. A. Steele. 2008. Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 113(C2). DOI: 10.1029/2007jc004259.

Lions, J. L. 1971. Optimal control of systems governed by partial differential equations. Dordrecht: Springer Verlag.

Lisæter, K. A., J. Rosanova and G. Evensen. 2003. Assimilation of ice concentration in a coupled ice–ocean model, using the Ensemble Kalman filter. Ocean Dynamics 53(4):368-388.

Liu, C. X., B. J. Tian, K. F. Li, G. L. Manney, N. J. Livesey, Y. L. Yung and D. E. Waliser. 2014. Northern Hemisphere mid-winter vortex-displacement and vortex-split stratospheric sudden warmings: Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 119(22):12599-12620. DOI: 10.1002/2014jd021876.

Lolla, T., P. J. Haley and P. F. J. Lermusiaux. 2014a. Time-optimal path planning in dynamic flows using level set equations: Realistic applications. Ocean Dynamics 64(10):1399-1417. DOI: 10.1007/s10236-014-0760-3.

Lolla, T., P. F. J. Lermusiaux, M. P. Ueckermann and P. J. Haley. 2014b. Time-optimal path planning in dynamic flows using level set equations: Theory and schemes. Ocean Dynamics 64(10):1373-1397. DOI: 10.1007/s10236-014-0757-y.

Lorenc, A. C., S. P. Ballard, R. S. Bell, N. B. Ingleby, P. L. F. Andrews, D. M. Barker, J. R. Bray, A. M. Clayton, T. Dalby, D. Li, T. J. Payne and F. W. Saunders. 2000. The Met. Office global three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 126(570):2991-3012. DOI: 10.1256/Smsqj.57001.

Lorenc, A. C., N. E. Bowler, A. M. Clayton, S. R. Pring and D. Fairbairn. 2015. Comparison of hybrid-4DEnVar and hybrid-4DVar data assimilation methods for global NWP. Monthly Weather Review 143(1):212-229. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-14-00195.1.

Lorenz, E. N. 1963. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 20(2):130-141. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1963)020<0130:Dnf>2.0.Co;2.

Lu, F., Z. Liu, S. Zhang and Y. Liu. 2015. Strongly coupled data assimilation using leading averaged coupled covariance (LACC). Part I: Simple Model Study. Monthly Weather Review (in press). DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-14-0322.1.

Lubchenco, J. 2009. Testimony of Dr. Jane Lubchenco before the Senate Commerce Committee, February 12, 2009.

Lubchenco, J., M. K. McNutt, G. Dreyfus, S. A. Murawski, D. M. Kennedy, P. T. Anastas, S. Chu and T. Hunter. 2012. Science in support of the Deepwater Horizon response. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 109(50):20212-20221. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1204729109.

Lusk, E. and K. Yelick. 2007. Languages for high-productivity computing: The DARPA HPCS language project. Parallel Processing Letters 17:89-102.

Maaß, N., L. Kaleschke, X. Tian-Kunze and M. Drusch. 2013. Snow thickness retrieval over thick Arctic sea ice using SMOS satellite data. Cryosphere 7(6):1971-1989. DOI: 10.5194/tc-7-1971-2013.

MacLachlan, C., A. Arribas, K. A. Peterson, A. Maidens, D. Fereday, A. A. Scaife, M. Gordon, M. Vellinga, A. Williams, R. E. Comer, J. Camp, P. Xavier and G. Madec. 2015. Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): A high-resolution seasonal forecast system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 141(689):1072-1084. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2396.

MacLeod, D. A., A. Jones, F. Di Giuseppe, C. Caminade and A. P. Morse. 2015. Demonstration of successful malaria forecasts for Botswana using an operational seasonal climate model. Environmental Research Letters 10(4). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044005.

Madden, R. A. 1976. Estimates of the natural variability of time-averaged sea-level pressure. Monthly Weather Review 104(7):942–952. Doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1976)104.

Maddison, J. R., C. J. Cotter and P. E. Farrell. 2011a. Geostrophic balance preserving interpolation in mesh adaptive linearised shallow-water ocean modelling. Ocean Modelling 37(1-2):35-48. DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2010.12.007.

Maddison, J. R., D. P. Marshall, C. C. Pain and M. D. Piggott. 2011b. Accurate representation of geostrophic and hydrostatic balance in unstructured mesh finite element ocean modelling. Ocean Modelling 39(3-4):248-261. DOI: 10.1016/j. ocemod.2011.04.009.

Malanotte-Rizzoli, P., ed. 1996. Modern Approaches to Data Assimilation in Ocean Modeling. Amsterdam: Elsevier.

Maltrud, M., S. Peacock and M. Visbeck. 2010. On the possible long-term fate of oil released in the Deepwater Horizon incident, estimated using ensembles of dye release simulations. Environmental Research Letters 5(3). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/035301.

Marras, S., J. F. Kelly, M. Moragues, A. Müller, M. A. Kopera, M. Vázquez, F. X. Giraldo, G. Houzeaux and O. Jorba. 2015. A review of element-based Galerkin methods for numerical weather prediction: Finite elements, spectral elements, and discontinuous Galerkin. Archives of Computational Methods in Engineering:1-50. DOI: 10.1007/s11831-015-9152-1.

Marshall, A. G. and A. A. Scaife. 2010. Improved predictability of stratospheric sudden warming events in an atmospheric general circulation model with enhanced stratospheric resolution. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 115. DOI: 10.1029/2009jd012643.

Marsham, J. H., N. S. Dixon, L. Garcia-Carreras, G. M. S. Lister, D. J. Parker, P. Knippertz and C. E. Birch. 2013. The role of moist convection in the West African monsoon system: Insights from continental-scale convection-permitting simulations. Geophysical Research Letters 40(9):1843-1849. DOI: 10.1002/Grl.50347.

Mase, A. S. and L. S. Prokopy. 2014. Unrealized Potential: A review of perceptions and use of weather and climate information in agricultural decision making. Weather Climate and Society 6(1):47-61. DOI: 10.1175/Wcas-D-12-00062.1.

Masutani, M., E. Andersson, J. Terry, O. Reale, J. C. Jusem, L. P. Riishojgaard, T. Schlatter, A. Stoffelen, J. Woollen, S. Lord, Z. Toth, Y. Song, D. Kleist, Y. Xie, N. Prive, E. Liu, H. Sun, D. Emmitt, S. Greco, S. A. Wood, G.-J. Marseille, R. Errico, R. Yang&, G. McConaughy, D. Devenyi, S. Weygandt, A. Tompkins, T. Jung, V. Anantharaj, C. Hill, P. Fitzpatrick, F. Weng, T. Zhu and S. Boukabara. 2007. Progress in joint OSSEs: A new nature run and international collaboration. AMS preprint for 18th conference on NWP, Park City, UT, June 25-29, 2007. Available at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/124080.pdf, accessed July 2, 2015.

Masutani, M., J. S. Woollen, S. J. Lord, G. D. Emmitt, T. J. Kleespies, S. A. Wood, S. Greco, H. B. Sun, J. Terry, V. Kapoor, R. Treadon and K. A. Campana. 2010. Observing system simulation experiments at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres 115. DOI: 10.1029/2009jd012528.

Mathiot, P., C. K. Beatty, T. Fichefet, H. Goosse, F. Massonnet and M. Vancoppenolle. 2012. Better constraints on the seaice state using global sea-ice data assimilation. Geoscientific Model Development 5(6):1501-1515. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-5-1501-2012.

Mattern, J. P., K. Fennel and M. Dowd. 2012. Estimating time-dependent parameters for a biological ocean model using an emulator approach. Journal of Marine Systems 96-97:32-47. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2012.01.015.

Mavriplis, C. 2011. The challenges of high order methods in numerical weather prediction. In Spectral and High Order Methods for Partial Differential Equations. Selected papers from the ICOSAHOM ‘09 conference, June 22-26, Trondheim, Norway. J. S. Hesthaven and E. M. Ronquist, eds. Berlin: Springer.

McNutt, M. 2015. A community for disaster science. Science 348(6230):11-11. DOI: 10.1126/science.aab2091.

McNutt, M., R. Cammilli, G. Guthrie, P. Hsieh, V. Labson, B. Lehr, D. Maclay, A. Latzel and M. Sogge. 2011. Assessment of Flow Rate Estimates for the Deepwater Horizon/Macondo Well Oil Spill. Flow Rate Technical Group report to the National Incident Command, Interagency Solutions Group. Washington, DC: US Department of the Interior.

McPhaden, M. J. 2015. Commentary: Playing hide and seek with El Niño. Nature Climate Change 5(9):791-795.DOI:10.1038/nclimate2775.

Meadow, A. M., D. B. Ferguson, Z. Guido, A. Horangic, G. Owen and T. Wall. 2015. Moving toward the Deliberate Coproduction of Climate Science Knowledge. Weather Climate and Society 7(2):179-191. DOI: 10.1175/Wcas-D-14-00050.1.

Mecklenburg, S., M. Drusch, Y. H. Kerr, J. Font, M. Martin-Neira, S. Delwart, G. Buenadicha, N. Reul, E. Daganzo-Eusebio, R. Oliva and R. Crapolicchio. 2012. ESA’s soil moisture and ocean salinity mission: Mission performance and operations. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 50(5):1354-1366. DOI: 10.1109/Tgrs.2012.2187666.

Meinke, H., R. Nelson, P. Kokic, R. Stone, R. Selvaraju and W. Baethgen. 2006. Actionable climate knowledge: From analysis to synthesis. Climate Research 33(1):101-110. DOI: 10.3354/Cr033101.

Mera, R., A. G. Laing and F. Semazzi. 2014. Moisture variability and multiscale interactions during spring in West Africa. Monthly Weather Review 142(9):3178-3198. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-13-00175.1.

Merryfield, W. J., W. S. Lee, G. J. Boer, V. V. Kharin, J. F. Scinocca, G. M. Flato, R. S. Ajayamohan, J. C. Fyfe, Y. M. Tang and S. Polavarapu. 2013a.The Canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system. Part I: Models and initialization. Monthly Weather Review 141(8):2910-2945. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-12-00216.1.

Merryfield, W. J., W. S. Lee, W. Wang, M. Chen and A. Kumar. 2013b. Multi-system seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice. Geophysical Research Letters 40(8):1551-1556. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50317.

Metzger, E. J., O. M. Smedstad, P. G. Thoppil, H. E. Hurlburt, J. A. Cummings, A. J. Wallcraft, L. Zamudio, D. S. Franklin, P. G. Posey, M. W. Phelps, P. J. Hogan, F. L. Bub and C. J. DeHaan. 2014. US Navy operational global ocean and Arctic ice prediction systems. Oceanography 27(3):32-43. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2014.66.

Miller, R. N., M. Ghil and F. Gauthiez. 1994. Advanced data assimilation in strongly nonlinear dynamical systems. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 51(8):1037-1056. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<1037:Adaisn>2.0.Co;2.

Milliman, J. D. and K. L. Farnsworth. 2013. River Discharge to the Coastal Ocean: A Global Synthesis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Mills, M. J., O. B. Toon, J. Lee-Taylor and A. Robock. 2014. Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict. Earth’s Future 2(161-176). DOI: 10.1002/2013EF000205.

Min,Y. M., V. N. Kryjov and S. M. Oh. 2014. Assessment of APCC multimodel ensemble prediction in seasonal climate forecasting: Retrospective (1983-2003) and real-time forecasts (2008-2013). Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres 119(21):12132-12150. DOI: 10.1002/2014jd022230.

Miura, H., M. Satoh, T. Nasuno, A. T. Noda and K. Oouchi. 2007. A Madden-Julian Oscillation event realistically simulated by a global cloud-resolving model. Science 318(5857):1763-1765. DOI: 10.1126/science.1148443.

Molesworth, A. M., L. E. Cuevas, S. J. Connor, A. P. Morse and M. C. Thomson. 2003. Environmental risk and meningitis epidemics in Africa. Emerging Infectious Diseases 9(10):1287-1293. DOI: 10.3201/eid0910.030182.

Moncrieff, M. W., D. E. Waliser, M. J. Miller, M. A. Shapiro, G. R. Asrar and J. Caughey. 2012. Multiscale convective organization and the YOTC virtual global field campaign. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93(8):1171-1187. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-11-00233.1.

Moore, G. W. K. 2013. The Novaya Zemlya Bora and its impact on Barents Sea air-sea interaction. Geophysical Research Letters 40(13):3462-3467. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50641.

Mori, M. and M. Watanabe. 2008. Growth and triggering mechanisms of the PNA: A MJO-PNA coherence. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 86(1):213-236. DOI: 10.2151/Jmsj.86.213.

Morse, A. P., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. B. Hoshen, R. Hagedorn and T. N. Palmer. 2005. A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model. Tellus Series A—Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 57(3):464-475. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00124.x.

Morss, R. E., J. K. Lazo, B. G. Brown, H. E. Brooks, P. T. Ganderton and B. N. Mills. 2008. Societal and economic research and applications for weather forecasts—Priorities for the North American THORPEX program. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89(3):335-346. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-89-3-335.

Msadek, R., G. A. Vecchi, M. Winton and R. G. Gudgel. 2014. Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent. Geophysical Research Letters 41(14):5208-5215. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060799.

Mueller, B. and S. I. Seneviratne. 2012. Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 109(31):12398-12403. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109.

Murphy, A. H. 1977. The value of climatological, categorical and probabilistic forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation. Monthly Weather Review 105:803-816. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1977)105<0803:TVOCCA>2.0.CO;2.

Murtugudde, R., J. Beauchamp, C. R. McClain, M. Lewis and A. J. Busalacchi. 2002. Effects of penetrative radiation on the upper tropical ocean circulation. Journal of Climate 15(5):470-486. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0470:Eoprot>2.0.Co;2.

Myers, M. F., D. J. Rogers, J. Cox, A. Flahault and S. I. Hay. 2000. Forecasting disease risk for increased epidemic preparedness in public health. Advances in Parasitology 47:309-330. DOI: 10.1016/S0065-308X(00)47013-2.

Nair, R. D., H. W. Choi and H. M. Tufo. 2009. Computational aspects of a scalable high-order discontinuous Galerkin atmospheric dynamical core. Computers & Fluids 38(2):309-319. DOI: 10.1016/j.compfluid.2008.04.006.

Najm, H. N. 2009. Uncertainty quantification and polynomial chaos techniques in computational fluid dynamics. Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics 41:35-52. DOI: 10.1146/annurev.fluid.010908.165248.

Namias, J. 1953. Thirty-day forecasting: A review of a ten-year experiment. Meteorological Monograph No. 2. American Meteorological Society, Washington, DC.

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015a. Sea Change: 2015-2025 Decadal Survey of Ocean Sciences Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015b. Continuity of NASA Earth Observations from Space: A Value Framework. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

Navon, I. M. 1998. Practical and theoretical aspects of adjoint parameter estimation and identifiability in meteorology and oceanography. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 27(1-4):55-79. DOI: 10.1016/S0377-0265(97)00032-8.

Neena, J. M., J. Y. Lee, D. Waliser, B. Wang and X. N. Jiang. 2014. Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE). Journal of Climate 27(12):4531-4543. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-13-00624.1.

Newsom, E., C. M. Bitz, F. Bryan, R. Abernathey and P. Gent. 2015. Sea ice processes control abyssal Southern Ocean heat uptake in a fine resolution ocean climate model. Journal of Climate (in press).

NIDIS Program Implementation Team. 2007. The National Integrated Drought Information System Implementation Plan: A Pathway for National Resilience. Silver Spring, MD: NOAA.

Niiler, P. P. 2001. The world ocean surface circulation. In Ocean Circulation and Climate. G. Siedler, J. Church and J. Gould, eds. Kidlington, UK: Academic Press.

NOAA (National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration). 2010. Office of Hydrologic Development Hydrology Laboratory Strategic Science Plan. Silver Spring, MD: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA. 2015. Workshop on High-Resolution Coupling and Initialization to Improve Predictability and Predictions in Climate Models. Retrieved December 8, 2015, from http://cpo.noaa.gov/ClimatePrograms/ModelingAnalysisPredictionsandProjections/OutreachPublications/MeetingsWorkshops/HighResolutionWorkshop.

Notz, D. 2012. Challenges in simulating sea ice in Earth System Models. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews—Climate Change 3(6):509-526. DOI: 10.1002/Wcc.189.

Nouy, A. 2007. A generalized spectral decomposition technique to solve a class of linear stochastic partial differential equations. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering 196(45-48):4521-4537. DOI: 10.1016/j. cma.2007.05.016.

NRC (National Research Council). 1985. The Effects on the Atmosphere of a Major Nuclear Exchange. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

NRC. 1986. U.S. Participation in the TOGA Program: A Research Strategy. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

NRC. 1991a. TOGA: A Review of Progress and Future Opportunities. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

NRC. 1991b. Toward a New National Weather Service: A First Report. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

NRC. 1993. Statistics and Physical Oceanography. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

NRC. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System)—for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate.Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

NRC. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

NRC. 2000. Improving Atmospheric Temperature Monitoring Capabilities: Letter Report.Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

NRC. 2003. Fair Weather: Effective Partnership in Weather and Climate Services. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

NRC. 2008. The Potential Impact of High-End Capability Computing on Four Illustrative Fields of Science and Engineering. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

NRC. 2009. Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

NRC. 2010a. Facilitating Climate Change Responses: A Report of Two Workshops on Insights from the Social and Behavioral Sciences. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

NRC. 2010b. Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

NRC. 2010c. When Weather Matters: Science and Service to Meet Critical Societal Needs. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

NRC. 2012a. Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

NRC. 2012b. A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

NRC. 2013. An Ecosystem Services Approach to Assessing the Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

NRC. 2014. Lessons Learned from the Fukushima Nuclear Accident for Improving Safety of U.S. Nuclear Plants. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

O’Donnell, M. and B. Colby. 2009. Dry-Year Water Supply Reliability Contracts: A Tool for Water Managers. Tucson, AZ: University of Arizona, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Oke, P. R., G. B. Brassington, D. A. Griffin and A. Schiller. 2008. The Bluelink ocean data assimilation system (BODAS). Ocean Modelling 21(1-2):46-70. DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2007.11.002.

Oouchi, K., A. T. Noda, M. Satoh, B. Wang, S. P. Xie, H. G. Takahashi and T. Yasunari. 2009. Asian summer monsoon simulated by a global cloud-system-resolving model: Diurnal to intra-seasonal variability. Geophysical Research Letters 36. DOI: 10.1029/2009gl038271.

Orsolini, Y. J., R. Senan, G. Balsamo, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F. Vitart, A. Weisheimer, A. Carrasco and R. E. Benestad. 2013. Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts. Climate Dynamics 41(7-8):1969-1982. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1782-0.

Orsolini, Y. J., L. Zhang, D. H. W. Peters, K. Fraedrich, X. H. Zhu, A. Schneidereit and B. van den Hurk. 2015. Extreme precipitation events over north China in August 2010 and their link to eastward-propagating wave-trains across Eurasia: observations and monthly forecasting. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 141(693):3097-3105. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2594.

Ota, Y., J. C. Derber, E. Kalnay and T. Miyoshi. 2013. Ensemble-based observation impact estimates using the NCEP GFS.Tellus Series a-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 65. DOI: 10.3402/Tellusa.V65i0.20038.

Overpeck, J. T., G. A. Meehl, S. Bony and D. R. Easterling. 2011. Climate data challenges in the 21st century. Science 331(6018):700-702. DOI: 10.1126/science.1197869.

Paaijmans, K. P., S. Blanford, A. S. Bell, J. I. Blanford, A. F. Read and M. B. Thomas. 2010. Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107(34):15135-15139. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1006422107.

Pagano, T. C., H. C. Hartmann and S. Sorooshian. 2002. Factors affecting seasonal forecast use in Arizona water management: A case study of the 1997-98 El Nino. Climate Research 21(3):259-269. DOI: 10.3354/Cr021259.

Paley, D. A., F. M. Zhang and N. E. Leonard. 2008. Cooperative control for ocean sampling: The Glider Coordinated Control System. IEEE Transactions on Control Systems Technology 16(4):735-744. DOI: 10.1109/Tcst.2007.912238.

Palipane, E., J. Lu, G. Chen and J. L. Kinter. 2013. Improved annular mode variability in a global atmospheric general circulation model with 16 km horizontal resolution. Geophysical Research Letters 40(18):4893-4899. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50649.

Palmer, T. 2015. Modelling: Build imprecise supercomputers. Nature 526(7571). DOI: 10.1038/526029a.

Palmer, T. N., C. Brankovic and D. S. Richardson. 2000. A probability and decision-model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 126(567):2013-2033. DOI: 10.1256/Smsqj.56702.

Palmer, T. N., A. Alessandri, U. Andersen, P. Cantelaube, M. Davey, P. Delecluse, M. Deque, E. Diez, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, H. Feddersen, R. Graham, S. Gualdi, J. F. Gueremy, R. Hagedorn, M. Hoshen, N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, A. Lazar, E. Maisonnave, V. Marletto, A. P. Morse, B. Orfila, P. Rogel, J. M. Terres and M. C. Thomson. 2004. Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 85(6):853-872. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-85-6-853.

Palmer, T. N. 2012. Towards the probabilistic Earth-system simulator: A vision for the future of climate and weather prediction. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 138(665):841-861. DOI: 10.1002/qj.1923.

Palmer, T. N. 2014. More reliable forecasts with less precise computations: A fast-track route to cloud-resolved weather and climate simulators? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 372(2018). DOI: 10.1098/Rsta.2013.0391.

Palmer, T. N., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Weisheimer and M. J. Rodwell. 2008. Toward seamless prediction: Calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89(4):459-470. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-89-4-459.

Pandya, R., A. Hodgson, M. H. Hayden, P. Akweongo, T. Hopson, A. A. Forgor, T. Yoksas, M. A. Dalaba, V. Dukic, R. Mera, A. Dumont, K. McCormack, D. Anaseba, T. Awine, J. Boehnert, G. Nyaaba, A. Laing and F. Semazzi. 2015. Using weather forecasts to help manage meningitis in the West African Sahel. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96(1):103-+. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-13-00121.1.

Park, S. and C. S. Bretherton. 2009. The University of Washington shallow convection and moist turbulence schemes and their impact on climate simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model. Journal of Climate 22(12):3449-3469. DOI: 10.1175/2008jcli2557.1.

Patt, A. G., L. Ogallo and M. Hellmuth. 2007. Sustainability—Learning from 10 years of climate outlook forums in Africa. Science 318(5847):49-50. DOI: 10.1126/science.1147909.

PCAST (President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology). 2010. Report to the President and Congress. Designing a Digital Future: Federally funded research and development in networking and information technology.Washington, DC: Executive Office of the President, President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.

Peings, Y., H. Douville, R. Alkama and B. Decharme. 2011. Snow contribution to springtime atmospheric predictability over the second half of the twentieth century. Climate Dynamics 37(5-6):985-1004. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0884-1.

Pepler, A. S., L. B. Díaz, C. Prodhomme, F. J. Doblas-Reyes and A. Kumar. 2015. The ability of a multi-model seasonal forecasting ensemble to forecast the frequency of warm, cold and wet extremes. Weather and Climate Extremes 9:68-77. DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.005.

Pham, D. T. 2001. Stochastic methods for sequential data assimilation in strongly nonlinear systems. Monthly Weather Review 129(5):1194-1207. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1194:Smfsda>2.0.Co;2.

Pielke, R. and R. E. Carbone. 2002. Weather impacts, forecasts, and policy—An integrated perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83(3):393-+. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<0393:Wifap>2.3.Co;2.

Pielke, R. A. 2013. Mesoscale meteorological modeling. 3rd edition. San Diego: Academic Press.

Pinardi, N. and J. Woods, eds. 2002. Ocean Forecasting: Conceptual Basis and Applications. Dordrecht: Springer.

Post, E., U. Bhatt, C. M. Bitz, J. Brodie, T. L. Fulton, M. Hebblewhite, J. Kerby, S. Kutz, I. Stirling and D. A. Walker. 2013. Sea ice as driver of ecological responses to climate change in the Polar Regions. Science 341. DOI: 10.1126/science.1235225.

Pritchard, M. S. and R. C. J. Somerville. 2009. Assessing the diurnal cycle of precipitation in a multi-scale climate model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 1(4). DOI: 10.3894/JAMES.2009.1.12.

Prodhomme, C., F. Doblas-Reyes, O. Bellprat and E. Dutra. 2015. Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2879-4.

Pullen, J., J. Chang and S. Hanna. 2013. Air-sea transport, dispersion, and fate modeling in the vicinity of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant: A special conference session summary. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94:31-39. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00158.1.

Pulwarty, R. S. and K. T. Redmond. 1997. Climate and salmon restoration in the Columbia River basin: The role and usability of seasonal forecasts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(3):381-397. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0381:Casrit>2.0.Co;2.

Pulwarty, R. S., C. Simpson and C. R. Nierenberg. 2009. The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program: Crafting effective assessments for the long haul. In Integrated Regional Assessments of Global Climate Changes. C.G. Wright and J. Jaeger, eds. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Qian, Y., W. I. Gustafson, L. R. Leung and S. J. Ghan. 2009. Effects of soot-induced snow albedo change on snowpack and hydrological cycle in western United States based on Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry and regional climate simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 114. DOI: 10.1029/2008jd011039.

Quan, X. W., P. J. Webster, A. M. Moore and H. R. Chang. 2004. Seasonality in SST-forced atmospheric short-term climate predictability. Journal of Climate 17(16):3090-3108. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3090:Sisasc>2.0.Co;2.

Rabier, F., H. Jarvinen, E. Klinker, J. F. Mahfouf and A. Simmons. 2000. The ECMWF operational implementation of four-dimensional variational assimilation. I: Experimental results with simplified physics. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 126(564):1143-1170. DOI: 10.1256/Smsqj.56414.

Raftery, A. E., T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui and M. Polakowski. 2005. Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Monthly Weather Review 133(5):1155-1174. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr2906.1.

Ramp, S. R., R. E. Davis, N. E. Leonard, I. Shulman, Y. Chao, A. R. Robinson, J. Marsden, P. F. J. Lermusiaux, D. M. Fratantoni, J. D. Paduan, F. P. Chavez, F. L. Bahr, S. Liang, W. Leslie and Z. Li. 2009. Preparing to predict: The Second Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network (AOSN-II) experiment in the Monterey Bay. Deep-Sea Research Part II—Topical Studies in Oceanography 56(3-5):68-86. DOI: 10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.08.013.

Randall, D., M. Branson, M. Wang, S. Ghan, C. Craig, A. Gettelman and J. Edwards. 2013. A Community Atmosphere Model with superparameterized clouds. Eos Transactions AGU 94(25):221.

Rashid, H. A., H. H. Hendon, M. C. Wheeler, and O. Alves. 2011. Prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation with the POAMA dynamical prediction system. Climate Dynamics 36(3-4):649-661. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0754-x.

Rasmusson, E. M. and K. T. Mo. 1993. Linkages between 200-Mb tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies during the 1986-1989 ENSO cycle. Journal of Climate 6(4):595-616. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<0595:Lbmtae>2.0.Co;2.

Reeves, R. W. and D. D. Gemmill. 2004. Climate Prediction Center: Reflections on 25 Years of Analysis, Diagnosis, and Prediction. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

Reul, N., S. Fournier, J. Boutin, O. Hernandez, C. Maes, B. Chapron, G. Alory, Y. Quilfen, J. Tenerelli, S. Morisset, Y. Kerr, S. Mecklenburg and S. Delwart. 2014. Sea surface salinity observations from space with the SMOS satellite: A new means to monitor the marine branch of the water cycle. Surveys in Geophysics 35(3):681-722. DOI: 10.1007/s10712-013-9244-0.

Richter, I., S.-P. Xie, S. K. Behera, T. Doi and Y. Masumoto. 2012. Equatorial Atlantic variability and its relation to mean state biases in CMIP5. Climate Dynamics 42(1-2):171-188. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1624-5.

Riddle, E. E., A. H. Butler, J. C. Furtado, J. L. Cohen and A. Kumar. 2013. CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation. Climate Dynamics 41(3-4):1099-1116. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1850-5.

Rienecker, M. M. 2003. Report of the Coupled Data Assimilation Workshop (NOAA/OGP), Portland, OR, April 21-23.

Rienecker, M. M., M. J. Suarez, R. Gelaro, R. Todling, J. Bacmeister, E. Liu, M. G. Bosilovich, S. D. Schubert, L. Takacs, G. K. Kim, S. Bloom, J. Y. Chen, D. Collins, A. Conaty, A. Da Silva, W. Gu, J. Joiner, R. D. Koster, R. Lucchesi, A. Molod, T. Owens, S. Pawson, P. Pegion, C. R. Redder, R. Reichle, F. R. Robertson, A. G. Ruddick, M. Sienkiewicz and J. Woollen. 2011. MERRA: NASA’s modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. Journal of Climate 24(14):3624-3648. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00015.1.

Rigor, I. G., J. M. Wallace and R. L. Colony. 2002. Response of sea ice to the Arctic oscillation. Journal of Climate 15(18):2648-2663. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2648:Rositt>2.0.Co;2.

Riser, S. C., H. J. Freeland, D. Roemmich, S. Wijffels, Ariel Troisi, M. Belbéoch, D. Gilbert, J. Xu, S. Pouliquen, A. Thresher, P.-Y. L. Traon, G. Maze, B. Klein, M. Ravichandran, F. Grant, P.-M. Poulain, T. Suga, B. Lim, A. Sterl, P. Sutton, Kjell-Arne Mork, P. J. Vélez-Belchí, I. Ansorge, B. King, J. Turton, M. Baringer and S. R. Jayne. 2016. Fifteen years of ocean observations with the global Argo array. Nature Climate Change 6:145-153. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2872.

Roads, J. O. 1999. Jerome Namias, 1910-1996: A Biographical Memoir. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

Robertson, A. W., W. Baethgen, P. Block, U. Lall, A. Sankarasubramanian, F. d. A. d. S. Filho and K. M. J. Verbist. 2014. Climate risk management for water in semi-arid regions. Earth Perspectives 1(12). DOI: 10.1186/2194-6434-1-12.

Robertson, A. W., A. Kumar, M. Pena and F. Vitart. 2015. Improving and promoting subseasonal to seasonal prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96(3):Es49-Es53. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-14-00139.1.

Robinson, A. R., ed. 1983 Eddies in Marine Science. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.

Robinson, A. R., P. F. J. Lermusiaux and N. Q. Sloan. 1998. Data Assimilation. In The Sea: The Global Coastal Ocean, Vol. 10: Processes and Methods. K. H. Brink and A. R. Robinson, eds. New York: John Wiley and Sons.

Robinson, A. R., P. J. Haley, P. F. J. Lermusiaux and W. G. Leslie. 2002. Predictive Skill, Predictive Capability and Predictability in Ocean Forecasting. In Proceedings of the OCEANS 2002 MTS/IEEE conference, ed. Biloxi, MS: Holland Publications.

Robinson, I. 2006. Satellite Measurements for Operational Ocean Models. In Ocean Weather Forecasting: An Integrated View of Oceanography. E. P. Chassignet and J. Verron, eds. Dordrecht: Springer.

Rodell, M., P.R.Houser, U.Jambor, J.Gottschalck, K.Mitchell, C.J.Meng, K.Arsenault, B.Cosgrove, J.Radakovich, M.Bosilovich, J.K.Entin, J.P.Walker, D.Lohmann and D.Toll.2004.The global land data assimilation system.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 85(3):381-394. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-85-3-381.

Rodney, M., H. Lin and J. Derome. 2013. subseasonal prediction of wintertime North American surface air temperature during strong MJO events. Monthly Weather Review 141(8):2897-2909. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-12-00221.1.

Roe, R. and T. Wilkie. 2015. The new realism: Software runs slowly on supercomputers. Scientific Computing World(143).

Roehrig, R., D. Bouniol, F. Guichard, F. Hourdin and J.-L. Redelsperger. 2013. The present and future of the West African monsoon: A process-oriented assessment of CMIP5 simulations along the AMMA transect. Journal of Climate 26:6471-6505. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00505.1.

Roff, G., D. W. J. Thompson and H. Hendon. 2011. Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended-range forecast skill? Geophysical Research Letters 38. DOI: 10.1029/2010gl046515.

Roquet, F., C. Wunsch, G. Forget, P. Heimbach, C. Guinet, G. Reverdin, J. B. Charrassin, F. Bailleul, D. P. Costa, L. A. Huckstadt, K. T. Goetz, K. M. Kovacs, C. Lydersen, M. Biuw, O. A. Nost, H. Bornemann, J. Ploetz, M. N. Bester, T. McIntyre, M. C. Muelbert, M. A. Hindell, C. R. McMahon, G. Williams, R. Harcourt, I. C. Field, L. Chafik, K. W. Nicholls, L. Boehme, and M. A. Fedak. 2013. Estimates of the Southern Ocean general circulation improved by animal-borne instruments. Geophysical Research Letters 40(23):6176-6180. DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058304.

Roulston, M. S. and L. A. Smith. 2004. The Boy who Cried Wolf revisited: The impact of false alarm intolerance on cost-loss scenarios. Weather and Forecasting 19(2):391-397. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0391:Tbwcwr>2.0.Co;2.

Roundy, J. K. and E. F.Wood. 2015.The attribution of land-atmosphere interactions on the seasonal predictability of drought. Journal of Hydrometeorology 16(2):793-810. DOI: 10.1175/Jhm-D-14-0121.1.

Roundy, J. K., C. R. Ferguson and E. F. Wood. 2014. Impact of land-atmospheric coupling in CFSv2 on drought prediction. Climate Dynamics 43(1-2):421-434. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1982-7.

Ruf, C., A. Lyons, M. Unwin, J. Dickinson, R. Rose, D. Rose and M. Vincent. 2013. CYGNSS: Enabling the future of hurricane prediction. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Magazine 1(2):52-67. DOI: 10.1109/MGRS.2013.2260911.

Ruiz, J. and M. Pulido. 2015. Parameter estimation using ensemble-based data assimilation in the presence of model error. Monthly Weather Review 143(5):1568-1582. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-14-00017.1.

Saha, S., S. Nadiga, C. Thiaw, J. Wang, W. Wang, Q. Zhang, H. M. Van den Dool, H. L. Pan, S. Moorthi, D. Behringer, D. Stokes, M. Pena, S. Lord, G. White, W. Ebisuzaki, P. Peng and P. Xie. 2006. The NCEP Climate Forecast System. Journal of Climate 19(15):3483-3517. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli3812.1.

Saha, S., S. Moorthi, H. L. Pan, X. R. Wu, J. D. Wang, S. Nadiga, P. Tripp, R. Kistler, J. Woollen, D. Behringer, H. X. Liu, D. Stokes, R. Grumbine, G. Gayno, J. Wang, Y. T. Hou, H. Y. Chuang, H. M. H. Juang, J. Sela, M. Iredell, R. Treadon, D. Kleist, P. Van Delst, D. Keyser, J. Derber, M. Ek, J. Meng, H. L. Wei, R. Q. Yang, S. Lord, H. Van den Dool, A. Kumar, W. Q. Wang, C. Long, M. Chelliah, Y. Xue, B. Y. Huang, J. K. Schemm, W. Ebisuzaki, R. Lin, P. P. Xie, M. Y. Chen, S. T. Zhou, W. Higgins, C. Z. Zou, Q. H. Liu, Y. Chen, Y. Han, L. Cucurull, R. W. Reynolds, G. Rutledge and M. Goldberg. 2010. The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91(8):1015-1057. DOI: 10.1175/2010bams3001.1.

Saha, S., S. Moorthi, X. R. Wu, J. Wang, S. Nadiga, P. Tripp, D. Behringer, Y. T. Hou, H. Y. Chuang, M. Iredell, M. Ek, J. Meng, R. Q. Yang, M. P. Mendez, H. Van Den Dool, Q. Zhang, W. Q. Wang, M. Y. Chen and E. Becker. 2014. The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. Journal of Climate 27(6):2185-2208. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00823.1.

Sakov, P., F. Counillon, L. Bertino, K. A. Lisaeter, P. R. Oke and A. Korablev. 2012. TOPAZ4: An ocean-sea ice data assimilation system for the North Atlantic and Arctic. Ocean Science 8(4):633-656. DOI: 10.5194/os-8-633-2012.

Sandgathe, S., B. Brown, B. Etherton and E. Tollerud. 2013. Designing multimodel ensembles requires meaningful methodologies. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94(12):Es183-Es185. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-12-00234.1.

Sapsis, T. P. and P. F. J. Lermusiaux. 2009. Dynamically orthogonal field equations for continuous stochastic dynamical systems. Physica D—Nonlinear Phenomena 238(23-24):2347-2360. DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2009.09.017.

Sapsis, T. P. and P. F. J. Lermusiaux. 2012. Dynamical criteria for the evolution of the stochastic dimensionality in flows with uncertainty. Physica D—Nonlinear Phenomena 241(1):60-76. DOI: 10.1016/j.physd.2011.10.001.

Sato, T., H. Miura, M. Satoh, Y. N. Takayabu and Y. Q. Wang. 2009. Diurnal cycle of precipitation in the tropics simulated in a global cloud-resolving model. Journal of Climate 22(18):4809-4826. DOI: 10.1175/2009jcli2890.1.

Satoh, M., S. Iga, H. Tomita, Y. Tsushima and A. T. Noda. 2012. Response of upper clouds in global warming experiments obtained using a global nonhydrostatic model with explicit cloud processes. Journal of Climate 25(6):2178-2191. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-11-00152.1.

Savelli, S. and S. Joslyn. 2012. Boater safety: Communicating weather forecast information to high-stakes end users.Weather Climate and Society 4(1):7-19. DOI: 10.1175/Wcas-D-11-00025.1.

Scaife, A. A., D. Copsey, C. Gordon, C. Harris, T. Hinton, S. Keeley, A. O’Neill, M. Roberts and K. Williams. 2011. Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model. Geophysical Research Letters 38. DOI: 10.1029/2011gl049573.

Scaife, A. A., A. Arribas, E. Blockley, A. Brookshaw, R. T. Clark, N. Dunstone, R. Eade, D. Fereday, C. K. Folland, M. Gordon, L. Hermanson, J. R. Knight, D. J. Lea, C. MacLachlan, A. Maidens, M. Martin, A. K. Peterson, D. Smith, M. Vellinga, E. Wallace, J. Waters and A. Williams. 2014a. Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters. Geophysical Research Letters 41(7):2514-2519. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059637.

Scaife, A. A., M. Athanassiadou, M. Andrews, A. Arribas, M. Baldwin, N. Dunstone, J. Knight, C. MacLachlan, E. Manzini, W. A. Muller, H. Pohlmann, D. Smith, T. Stockdale and A. Williams. 2014b. Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales. Geophysical Research Letters 41(5):1752-1758. DOI: 10.1002/2013gl059160.

Schiller, A. and G. B. Brassington, Eds. 2011. Operational Oceanography in the 21st Century. Dordrecht: Springer.

Schofield, O., S. Glenn, J. Orcutt, M. Arrott, M. Meisinger, A. Gangopadhyay, W. Brown, R. Signell, M. Moline, Y. Chao, S. Chien, D. Thompson, A. Balasuriya, P. F. J. Lermusiaux and M. Oliver. 2010. Automated sensor network to advance ocean science. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 91(39):345-346.

Screen, J. A., I. Simmonds and K. Keay. 2011. Dramatic interannual changes of perennial Arctic sea ice linked to abnormal summer storm activity. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres 116. DOI: 10.1029/2011jd015847.

Semtner, A. J. 1995. Modeling Ocean Circulation. Science 269(5229):1379-1385. DOI: 10.1126/science.269.5229.1379.

Shapiro, M., J. Shukla, G. Brunet, C. Nobre, M. Beland, R. Dole, K. Trenberth, R. Anthes, G. Asrar, L. Barrie, P. Bougeault, G. Brasseur, D. Burridge, A. Busalacchi, J. Caughey, D. L. Chen, J. Church, T. Enomoto, B. Hoskins, O. Hov, A. Laing, H. Le Treut, J. Marotzke, G. McBean, G. Meehl, M. Miller, B. Mills, J. Mitchell, M. Moncrieff, T. Nakazawa, H. Olafsson, T. Palmer, D. Parsons, D. Rogers, A. Simmons, A. Troccoli, Z. Toth, L. Uccellini, C. Velden and J. M. Wallace. 2010. An Earth-system prediction initiative for the Twenty-First Century. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91(10):1377-1388. DOI: 10.1175/2010BAMS2944.1.

Sherwood, S. C., S. Bony and J. L. Dufresne. 2014. Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing. Nature 505(7481):37-42. DOI: 10.1038/nature12829.

Shukla, J. 1998. Predictability in the midst of chaos: A scientific basis for climate forecasting. Science 282(5389):728-731. DOI: 10.1126/science.282.5389.728.

Shukla, J., J. Anderson, D. Baumhefner, C. Brankovic, Y. Chang, E. Kalnay, L. Marx, T. Palmer, D. Paolino, J. Ploshay, S. Schubert, D. Straus, M. Suarez and J. Tribbia. 2000. Dynamical seasonal prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81(11):2593-2606. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<2593:Dsp>2.3.Co;2.

Siegel, D. A., J. C. Ohlmann, L. Washburn, R. R. Bidigare, C. T. Nosse, E. Fields and Y. M. Zhou. 1995. Solar Radiation, Phytoplankton Pigments, and the Radiant Heating of the Equatorial Pacific Warm Pool. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 100(C3):4885-4891. DOI: 10.1029/94jc03128.

Sigmond, M., J. F. Scinocca, V. V. Kharin and T. G. Shepherd. 2013. Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings. Nature Geoscience 6(2):98-102. DOI: 10.1038/Ngeo1698.

Slingo, J., K. Bates, N. Nikiforakis, M. Piggott, M. Roberts, L. Shaffrey, I. Stevens, P. L. Vidale and H. Weller. 2009. Developing the next-generation climate system models: challenges and achievements. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A—Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 367(1890):815-831. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0207.

Sluka, T., S. Penny, E. Kalnay and T. Miyoshi. 2015. Using strongly coupled ensemble data assimilation to assimilate atmospheric observations into the ocean. Geophysical Research Letters (submitted).

Smedstad, O. M. and J. J. Obrien. 1991. Variational data assimilation and parameter-estimation in an equatorial Pacific Ocean model. Progress in Oceanography 26(2):179-241. DOI: 10.1016/0079-6611(91)90002-4.

Smith, M. J., P. I. Palmer, D. W. Purves, M. C. Vanderwel, V. Lyutsarev, B. Calderhead, L. N. Joppa, C. M. Bishop and S. Emmott. 2014. Changing how Earth system modeling is done to provide more useful information for decision making, science, and society. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95(9):1453-1464. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-13-00080.1.

Smith, P. J., G. D. Thornhill, S. L. Dance, A. S. Lawless, D. C. Mason and N. K. Nichols. 2013. Data assimilation for state and parameter estimation: application to morphodynamic modelling. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 139(671):314-327. DOI: 10.1002/Qj.1944.

Smith, P. J., A. M. Fowler and A. S. Lawless. 2015a. Exploring strategies for coupled 4D-Var data assimilation using an idealised atmosphere-ocean model. Tellus Series A—Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 67. DOI: 10.3402/Tellusa.V67.27025.

Smith, P. J., A. M. Fowler and A. S. Lawless. 2015b. Exploring strategies for coupled 4DVAR data assimilation using an idealised atmosphere-ocean model. Tellus A 67. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.27025.

Smith, R. B. 2013. The Lower Atmospheric Observing Facilities Workshop: Meeting the Challenges of Climate System Science. June 18-19, 2012, Boulder, Colorado. Boulder, CO: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.

Sobczyk, K. 2001. Information dynamics: Premises, challenges and results. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing 15(3):475-498. DOI: 10.1006/mssp.2000.1378.

Sobolowski, S., G. Gong and M. F.Ting. 2010. Modeled Climate State and Dynamic Responses to Anomalous North American Snow Cover. Journal of Climate 23(3):785-799. DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI3219.1.

Sondergaard, T. and P. F. J. Lermusiaux. 2013a. Data assimilation with gaussian mixture models using the dynamically orthogonal field equations. Part II: Applications. Monthly Weather Review 141(6):1761-1785. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-11-00296.1.

Sondergaard, T. and P. F. J. Lermusiaux. 2013b. Data assimilation with Gaussian mixture models using the dynamically orthogonal field equations. Part I: Theory and scheme. Monthly Weather Review 141(6):1737-1760. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-11-00295.1.

Srinivasan, G., K. M. Rafisura and A. R. Subbiah. 2011. Climate information requirements for community-level risk management and adaptation. Climate Research 47(1-2):5-12. DOI: 10.3354/Cr00962.

Stan, C., M. Khairoutdinov, C. A. DeMott, V. Krishnamurthy, D. M. Straus, D. A. Randall, J. L. Kinter and J. Shukla. 2010. An ocean-atmosphere climate simulation with an embedded cloud resolving model. Geophysical Research Letters 37. DOI: 10.1029/2009gl040822.

Stark, J. D., J. Ridley, M. Martin and A. Hines. 2008. Sea ice concentration and motion assimilation in a sea ice-ocean model. Journal of Geophysical Research—Oceans 113(C5). DOI: 10.1029/2007jc004224.

Stickler, A., S. Bronnimann, M. A. Valente, J. Bethke, A. Sterin, S. Jourdain, E. Roucaute, M. V. Vasquez, D. A. Reyes, R. Allan and D. Dee. 2014. ERA-CLIM Historical surface and upper-air data for future reanalyses. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95(9):1419-1430. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-13-00147.1.

Stockdale, T. N., D. L. T. Anderson, M. A. Balmaseda, F. Doblas-Reyes, L. Ferranti, K. Mogensen, T. N. Palmer, F. Molteni and F. Vitart. 2011. ECMWF seasonal forecast system 3 and its prediction of sea surface temperature. Climate Dynamics 37(3-4):455-471. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0947-3.

Stoffelen, A., G. J. Marseille, F. Bouttier, D. Vasiljevic, S. de Haan and C. Cardinali. 2006. ADM-Aeolus Doppler wind lidar observation system simulation experiment. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 132:1927-1947.

Stommel, H. M. 1989. The Slocum Mission. Oceanography 2(1):22-25. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.1989.26.

Straus, D., J. Shukla, D. Paolino, S. Schubert, M. Suarez, P. Pegion and A. Kumar. 2003. Predictability of the seasonal mean atmospheric circulation during autumn, winter, and spring. Journal of Climate 16(22):3629-3649. DOI: Doi 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3629:Potsma>2.0.Co;2.

Strong, C. and I. G. Rigor. 2013. Arctic marginal ice zone trending wider in summer and narrower in winter. Geophysical Research Letters 40(18):4864-4868. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50928.

Su, H., Z. L. Yang, R. E. Dickinson, C. R. Wilson and G. Y. Niu. 2010. Multisensor snow data assimilation at the continental scale: The value of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment terrestrial water storage information. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres 115. DOI: 10.1029/2009jd013035.

Suarez, P. and A. Tall. 2010. Towards forecast-based humanitarian decisions: Climate science to get from early warning to early action. London: Humanitarian Futures Programme, Kings College.

Subramani, D. N., T. Lolla, P. J. Haley Jr. and P. F. J. Lermusiaux. 2015. A stochastic optimization method for energy-based path planning. In Dynamic Data-driven Environmental Systems Science Conference: Lecture Notes in Computer Science. S. Ravela and A. Sandu, eds. Berlin: Springer International Publishing, in Press.

Sultan, B., K. Labadi, J. F. Guegan and S. Janicot. 2005. Climate drives the meningitis epidemics onset in West Africa. PLOS Medicine 2(1):43-49. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0020006.

Tabatabaeenejad, A., M. Burgin, X. Y. Duan and M. Moghaddam. 2015. P-band radar retrieval of subsurface soil moisture profile as a second-order polynomial: First AirMOSS results. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 53(2):645-658. DOI: 10.1109/Tgrs.2014.2326839.

Takahara, H. and D. Parks. 2008. NEC High Performance Computing. Presented at World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction, May 6-9, 2008, Reading, UK.

Tang, W. Q., S. H. Yueh, A. G. Fore and A. Hayashi. 2014. Validation of Aquarius sea surface salinity with in situ measurements from Argo floats and moored buoys. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 119(9):6171-6189. DOI: 10.1002/2014JC010101.

Tarantola, A. 2005. Inverse problem theory and methods for model parameter estimation. Philadelphia, PA: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathmatics.

Tardif, R., G. J. Hakim and C. Snyder. 2014. Coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation experiments with a low-order climate model. Climate Dynamics 43(5-6):1631-1643. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1989-0.

Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer and G. A. Meehl. 2012. An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93(4):485-498. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-11-00094.1.

Thacker, W. C., A. Srinivasan, M. Iskandarani, O. M. Knio and M. Le Henaff. 2012. Propagating boundary uncertainties using polynomial expansions. Ocean Modelling 43-44:52-63. DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2011.11.011.

Thacker, W. C., M. Iskandarani, R. C. Goncalves, A. Srinivasan and O. M. Knio. 2015. Pragmatic aspects of uncertainty propagation: A conceptual review. Ocean Modelling 95:25-36. DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.09.001.

Theurich, G., C. DeLuca, T. Campbell, F. Liu, K. Saint, M. Vertenstein, J. Chen, R. Oehmke, J. Doyle, T. Whitcomb, A. Wallcraft, M. Iredell, T. Black, A. M. da Silva, T. Clune, R. Ferraro, P. Li, M. Kelley, I. Aleinov, V. Balaji, N. Zadeh, R. Jacob, B. Kirtman, F. Giraldo, D. McCarren, S. Sandgathe, S. Peckham and R. Dunlap IV. 2015 The Earth system prediction suite: Toward a coordinated U.S. modeling capability. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00164.1.

Thiaw, W. M. and V. B. Kumar. 2015. NOAA’S African desk: Twenty years of developing capacity in weather and climate forecasting in Africa. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96(5). DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-13-00274.1.

Thomas, J. A., A. A. Berg and W. J. Merryfield. 2015. Influence of snow and soil moisture initialization on sub-seasonal predictability and forecast skill in boreal spring. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2821-9.

Thompson, D. W. J. and J. M. Wallace. 2000. Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to-month variability. Journal of Climate 13(5):1000-1016. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1000:Amitec>2.0.Co;2.

Thompson, D. W. J., M. P. Baldwin and J. M. Wallace. 2002. Stratospheric connection to Northern Hemisphere wintertime weather: Implications for prediction. Journal of Climate 15(12):1421-1428. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1421:Sctnhw>2.0.Co;2.

Thomson, M. C., S. J. Mason, T. Phindela, and S. J. Connor. 2005. Use of rainfall and sea surface temperature monitoring for malaria early warning in Botswana. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 73(1):214-221.

Thomson, M. C., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, S. J. Mason, R. Hagedorn, S. J. Connor, T. Phindela, A. P. Morse and T. N. Palmer. 2006a. Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles. Nature 439(7076):576-579. DOI: 10.1038/Nature04503.

Thomson, M. C., A. M. Molesworth, M. H. Djingarey, K. R. Yameogo, F. Belanger and L. E. Cuevas. 2006b. Potential of environmental models to predict meningitis epidemics in Africa. Tropical Medicine & International Health 11(6):781-788. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2006.01630.x.

Thomson, M. C., E. Firth, M. Jancloes, A. Mihretie, M. Onoda, S. Nickovic, H. Broutin, S. Sow, W. Perea, E. Bertherat, and S. Hugonnet. 2013. A Climate and Health Partnership to Inform the Prevention and Control of Meningoccocal Meningitis in Sub-Saharan Africa: The MERIT Initiative In Climate Science for Serving Society: Research, Modeling and Prediction Priorities. G. R. Asrar and J. W. Hurrell, eds. Dorcrecht: Springer Netherlands.

Thomson, M. C., S. Mason, B. Platzer, A. Mihretie, J. Omumbo, G. Mantilla, P. Ceccato, M. Jancloes and S. Connor. 2014. Climate and health in Africa. Earth Perspectives 1(17). DOI: 10.1186/2194-6434-1-17.

Timmermans,R.M.A.,W.A.Lahoz,J.-L.Attié,V.-H.Peuch,R.L.Curier,D.P.Edwards,H.J.Eskes and P.J.H.Builtjes.2015.Observing system simulation experiments for air quality. Atmospheric Environment 115:199-213.

Tippett, M.K., J.L.Anderson, C.H.Bishop,T.M.Hamill and J.S.Whitaker.2003.Ensemble square root filters.Monthly Weather Review 131(7):1485-1490. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<1485:Esrf>2.0.Co;2.

Tollefson, J. 2014. El Niño monitoring system in failure mode. Nature. DOI: 10.1038/nature.2014.14582.

Tompkins, A. M. and F. Di Giuseppe. 2015. Potential predictability of malaria in Africa using ECMWF monthly and seasonal climate forecasts. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 54(3):521-540. DOI: 10.1175/Jamc-D-14-0156.1.

Toniazzo, T. and S. Woolnough. 2014. Development of warm SST errors in the southern tropical Atlantic in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts. Climate Dynamics 43(11):2889-2913. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1691-2.

Treadon, R. E. 1996. Physical initialization in the NMC global data assimilation system. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 60(1-3):57-86. DOI: 10.1007/Bf01029786.

Trenberth, K. E., G. W. Branstator, D. Karoly, A. Kumar, N. C. Lau and C. Ropelewski. 1998. Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 103(C7):14291-14324. DOI: 10.1029/97jc01444.

Trudinger, C., M. Raupach, P. Rayner and I. Enting. 2008. Using the Kalman filter for parameter estimation in biogeochemic models. Environmetrics 19(849-870). DOI: 10.1002/env.910.

Tsamados, M., D. L. Feltham and A. V. Wilchinsky. 2013. Impact of a new anisotropic rheology on simulations of Arctic sea ice. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 118(1):91-107. DOI: 10.1029/2012jc007990.

Tseng, W. L., B. J. Tsuang, N. S. Keenlyside, H. H. Hsu and C. Y. Tu. 2015. Resolving the upper-ocean warm layer improves the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Climate Dynamics 44(5-6):1487-1503. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2315-1.

Tsuyuki, T. 1997. Variational data assimilation in the tropics using precipitation data .3. Assimilation of SSM/I precipitation rates. Monthly Weather Review 125(7):1447-1464. DOI: Doi 10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<1447:Vdaitt>2.0.Co;2.

Ueckermann, M. P., P. F. J. Lermusiaux and T. P. Sapsis. 2013. Numerical schemes for dynamically orthogonal equations of stochastic fluid and ocean flows. Journal of Computational Physics 233:272-294. DOI: 10.1016/j.jcp.2012.08.041.

Ueckermann, M. P. and P. F. J. Lermusiaux. 2016. Hybridizable discontinuous Galerkin projection methods for Navier-Stokes and Boussinesq equations. Journal of Computational Physics 306:390-421. DOI: 10.1016/j.jcp.2015.11.028.

Uppala, S. M., P. W. Kallberg, A. J. Simmons, U. Andrae, V. D. Bechtold, M. Fiorino, J. K. Gibson, J. Haseler, A. Hernandez, G. A. Kelly, X. Li, K. Onogi, S. Saarinen, N. Sokka, R. P. Allan, E. Andersson, K. Arpe, M. A. Balmaseda, A. C. M. Beljaars, L. Van De Berg, J. Bidlot, N. Bormann, S. Caires, F. Chevallier, A. Dethof, M. Dragosavac, M. Fisher, M. Fuentes, S. Hagemann, E. Holm, B. J. Hoskins, L. Isaksen, P. A. E. M. Janssen, R. Jenne, A. P. McNally, J. F. Mahfouf, J. J. Morcrette, N. A. Rayner, R. W. Saunders, P. Simon, A. Sterl, K. E. Trenberth, A. Untch, D. Vasiljevic, P. Viterbo and J. Woollen. 2005. The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 131(612):2961-3012. DOI: 10.1256/qj.04.176.

U.S. Department of Commerce. 2014. Fostering Innovation, Creating Jobs, Driving Better Decisions: The Value of Government Data. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration.

U.S. Navy Task Force Climate Change. 2014. The United States Navy Arctic Roadmap for 2014 to 2030. Washington, DC: US Navy.

USCG (U.S. Coast Guard). 2013. U.S. Coast Guard Arctic Strategy. Washington, DC: USCG Headquarters.

USGCRP IGIM (U.S. Global Change Research Program Interagency Group on Integrative Modeling). 2015. Report of the First U.S. Climate Modeling Summit (USCMS), NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, MD, April 26, 2015. Washington, DC: USGCRP.

Uttal, T., J. A. Curry, M. G. McPhee, D. K. Perovich, R. E. Moritz, J. A. Maslanik, P. S. Guest, H. L. Stern, J. A. Moore, R. Turenne, A. Heiberg, M. C. Serreze, D. P. Wylie, O. G. Persson, C. A. Paulson, C. Halle, J. H. Morison, P. A. Wheeler, A. Makshtas, H. Welch, M. D. Shupe, J. M. Intrieri, K. Stamnes, R. W. Lindsey, R. Pinkel, W. S. Pegau, T. P. Stanton and T. C. Grenfeld. 2002. Surface heat budget of the Arctic Ocean. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83(2):255-275. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<0255:Shbota>2.3.Co;2.

van Leeuwen, P. J. 2009. Particle filtering in geophysical systems. Monthly Weather Review 137(12):4089-4114. DOI: 10.1175/2009mwr2835.1.

Vancoppenolle, M., K. M. Meiners, C. Michel, L. Bopp, F. Brabant, G. Carnat, B. Delille, D. Lannuzel, G. Madec, S. Moreau, J. L. Tison and P. van der Merwe. 2013. Role of sea ice in global biogeochemical cycles: Emerging views and challenges. Quaternary Science Reviews 79:207-230. DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.04.011.

Vecchi, G.A.,M.Zhao,H.Wang,G.Villarini,A.Rosati,A.Kumar,I.M.Held and R.Gudgel.2011.Statistical-dynamical predictions of seasonal North Atlantic hurricane activity.Monthly Weather Review 139(4):1070-1082.DOI:10.1175/2010MWR3499.1.

Vedda, J. A. 2011. Climate change and national security: Implications for space systems. Crosslink 12(2).

Vintzileos, A. and D. Behringer. 2008. On the importance of atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions for forecasting the MJO. Abstract #A52B-05. Presented at American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Fransisco, CA.

Visbeck, M., E. P. Chassignet, R. G. Curry, T. L. Delworth, R. R. Dickson and G. Krahmann. 2003. The Ocean’s Response to North Atlantic Oscillation Variability. In The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact. J. W. Hurrell, Y. Kushnir, G. Ottersen, and M. Visbeck, eds. Washington, D C: American Geophysical Union.

Vitart, F. 2013. Evolution of ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast skill scores over the past 10 years. ECMWF Research Dept. Tech. Memo. 220. Available at http://old.ecmwf.int/publications/library/ecpublications/_pdf/tm/601-700/tm694.pdf, accessed September 2, 2015.

Vitart, F. 2014. Evolution of ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast skill scores. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 140(683):1889-1899. DOI: 10.1002/Qj.2256.

Vitart, F. and T. Jung. 2010. Impact of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics on the skill in predicting the Madden Julian Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters 37. DOI: 10.1029/2010gl045465.

Vitart, F. and F. Molteni. 2010. Simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its teleconnections in the ECMWF forecast system. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 136(649):842-855. DOI: 10.1002/qj.623.

Vitart, F., M. R. Huddleston, M. Deque, D. Peake, T. N. Palmer, T. N. Stockdale, M. K. Davey, S. Ineson and A. Weisheimer. 2007a. Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP. Geophysical Research Letters 34(16). DOI: 10.1029/2007gl030740.

Vitart, F., S. Woolnough, M. A. Balmaseda and A. M. Tompkins. 2007b. Monthly forecast of the Madden-Julian Oscillation using a coupled GCM. Monthly Weather Review 135(7):2700-2715. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr3415.1.

Vitart, F., R. Buizza, M. A. Balmaseda, G. Balsamo, J. R. Bidlot, A. Bonet, M. Fuentes, A. Hofstadler, F. Molteni and T. N. Palmer. 2008. The new VarEPS-monthly forecasting system: A first step towards seamless prediction. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 134(636):1789-1799. DOI: 10.1002/qj.322.

Vitart, F., A. W. Robertson and D. L.T. Anderson. 2012. Subseasonal to seasonal prediction project: Bridging the gap between weather and climate. WMO Bulletin 61(2):23-28.

Vitart, F., G. Balsamo, R. Buizza, L. Ferranti, S. Keeley, L. Magnusson, F. Molteni and A. Weisheimer. 2014. Sub-seasonal predictions. ECMWF technical memorandum no. 738. Reading, Berkshire, UK: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

Waliser, D. E., R. Murtugudde, P. Strutton and J. L. Li. 2005. Subseasonal organization of ocean chlorophyll: Prospects for prediction based on the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters 32(23). DOI: 10.1029/2005gl024300.

Waliser, D., K. Weickmann, R. Dole, S. Schubert, O. Alves, C. Jones, M. Newman, H. L. Pan, A. Roubicek, S. Saha, C. Smith, H. van den Dool, F. Vitart, M. Wheeler and J. Whitaker. 2006. The experimental MJO prediction project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87(4):425-431. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-87-4-425.

Waliser, D. E. 2011. Predictability and Forecasting. In Intraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System, 2nd Edition. Lau, W. K. M. and D. E. Waliser, eds. Heidelberg, Germany: Springer.

Waliser, D. E., M. W. Moncrieff, D. Burridge, A. H. Fink, D. Gochis, B. N. Goswami, B. Guan, P. Harr, J. Heming, H. H. Hsu, C. Jakob, M. Janiga, R. Johnson, S. Jones, P. Knippertz, J. Marengo, H. Nguyen, M. Pope, Y. Serra, C. Thorncroft, M. Wheeler, R. Wood and S.Yuter. 2012. The “Year” of Tropical Convection (May 2008-April 2010) Climate variability and weather highlights. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93(8):1189-1218. DOI: 10.1175/2011bams3095.1.

Walker, G. T. 1924. Correlation in seasonal variations of weather, IX. A further study of world weather. Memoirs of the India Meteorological Department 24(9):275-333.

Wallace, J. M. and D. S. Gutzler. 1981. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Monthly Weather Review 109(4):784-812. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:Titghf>2.0.Co;2.

Wang, B., J. Y. Lee, I. S. Kang, J. Shukla, J. S. Kug, A. Kumar, J. Schemm, J. J. Luo, T. Yamagata and C. K. Park. 2008. How accurately do coupled climate models predict the leading modes of Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variability? Climate Dynamics 30(6):605-619. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-007-0310-5.

Wang, B., J. Y. Lee, I. S. Kang, J. Shukla, C. K. Park, A. Kumar, J. Schemm, S. Cocke, J. S. Kug, J. J. Luo, T. Zhou, B. Wang, X. Fu, W. T. Yun, O. Alves, E. K. Jin, J. Kinter, B. Kirtman, T. Krishnamurti, N. C. Lau, W. Lau, P. Liu, P. Pegion, T. Rosati, S. Schubert, W. Stern, M. Suarez and T. Yamagata. 2009a. Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004). Climate Dynamics 33(1):93-117. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-008-0460-0.

Wang, D., P. F. J. Lermusiaux, P. J. Haley, D. Eickstedt, W. G. Leslie and H. Schmidt. 2009b. Acoustically focused adaptive sampling and on-board routing for marine rapid environmental assessment. Journal of Marine Systems 78:S393-S407. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.01.037.

Wang, Q., S. Danilov and J. Schroter. 2009c. Bottom water formation in the southern Weddell Sea and the influence of submarine ridges: Idealized numerical simulations. Ocean Modelling 28(1-3):50-59. DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.08.003.

Wang, W., M. Chen and A. Kumar. 2013a. Seasonal Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent from a Coupled Dynamical Forecast System. Monthly Weather Review 141(4):1375-1394. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00057.1.

Wang, X. G., D. Parrish, D. Kleist and J. Whitaker. 2013b. GSI 3DVar-based ensemble-variational hybrid data assimilation for NCEP Global Forecast System: Single-resolution experiments. Monthly Weather Review 141(11):4098-4117. DOI: 10.1175/Mwr-D-12-00141.1.

Weaver, S. J., W. Q. Wang, M. Y. Chen and A. Kumar. 2011. Representation of MJO variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Journal of Climate 24(17):4676-4694. DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4188.1.

Webster, P. J. and R. Lukas. 1992. TOGA COARE: The Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 73(9):1377-1416. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(1992)073<1377:Tctcor>2.0.Co;2.

Weigel, A. P., M. A. Liniger and C. Appenzeller. 2008. Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts? Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 134(630):241-260. DOI: 10.1002/qj.210.

Weisheimer, A., F. J. Doblas-Reyes, T. N. Palmer, A. Alessandri, A. Arribas, M. Deque, N. Keenlyside, M. MacVean, A. Navarra and P. Rogel. 2009. ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions—Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs. Geophysical Research Letters 36. DOI: 10.1029/2009gl040896.

Weisheimer, A., T. N. Palmer and F. J. Doblas-Reyes. 2011. Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles. Geophysical Research Letters 38. DOI: 10.1029/2011gl048123.

WGA (Water Governor’s Association). 2008. Water Needs and Strategies for a Sustainable Future: Next Steps. Denver, CO: Western Governors’ Association.

Wheeler, M. C. and H. H. Hendon. 2004. An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Monthly Weather Review 132(8):1917-1932. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1917:Aarmmi>2.0.Co;2.

Whitaker, J. S. and T. M. Hamill. 2002. Ensemble data assimilation without perturbed observations. Monthly Weather Review 130(7):1913-1924. DOI: 10.1175/MWR3156.1.

WHO (World Health Organization). 2001. Malaria Early Warning Systems. Concepts, Indicators and Partners. A framework for field research in Africa. WHO/CDS/RBM 2001.32. Geneva: World Health Organization.

WHO. 2012. Meningococcal meningitis. Fact sheet 141. Available at www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs141/en/, accessed April 8, 2015. Geneva: World Health Organization.

Wiener, N. 1958. Nonlinear problems in random theory. New York: MIT Technology Press and John Wiley and Sons.

Wilkie, T. 2015. Exascale: expect poor performance. Scientific Computing World.

WMO (World Meteorological Organization). 2013. Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Research Implementation Plan. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization.

WMO. 2015a. Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: From minutes to months. World Weather Open Science Conference, August 16-21, 2014, Montréal, Canada. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization.

WMO. 2015b. Seventeenth World Meteorological Congress: Abridged final report with resolutions. Geneva: WMO. Available at http://library.wmo.int/opac/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=18648#.VrNwC7IrKWh, accessed February 4, 2016.

Wood, R., C. R. Mechoso, C. S. Bretherton, R. A.Weller, B. Huebert, F. Straneo, B. A. Albrecht, H. Coe, G. Allen, G.Vaughan, P. Daum, C. Fairall, D. Chand, L. G. Klenner, R. Garreaud, C. Grados, D. S. Covert, T. S. Bates, R. Krejci, L. M. Russell, S. de Szoeke, A. Brewer, S. E. Yuter, S. R. Springston, A. Chaigneau, T. Toniazzo, P. Minnis, R. Palikonda, S. J. Abel, W. O. J. Brown, S. Williams, J. Fochesatto, J. Brioude and K. N. Bower. 2011. The VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx): Goals, platforms, and field operations. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 11(2):627-654. DOI: 10.5194/acp-11-627-2011.

Woollings, T., B. Hoskins, M. Blackburn and P. Berrisford. 2008. A new Rossby wave-breaking interpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 65(2):609-626. DOI: 10.1175/2007JAS2347.1.

World Bank. 2013. Building Resilience: Integrating Climate and Disaster Risk into Development. Lessons from World Bank Group experience. Washington, DC: The World Bank.

Wunsch, C. 1996. The Ocean Circulation Inverse Problem. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Wunsch, C. and P. Heimbach. 2013. Dynamically and kinematically consistent global ocean circulation and ice state estimates. In Ocean Circulation and Climate: A 21st century perspective. 2nd Edition. G. Siedler, S. Griffies, J. Gould, and J. Church, eds. Dordrecht: Springer.

Xiu, D. 2010. Numerical Methods for Stochastic Computations: A Spectral Method Approach. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Xiu, D. B. and G. E. Karniadakis. 2002. The Wiener-Askey polynomial chaos for stochastic differential equations. Siam Journal on Scientific Computing 24(2):619-644. DOI: 10.1137/S1064827501387826.

Xu, J. H., H. Shu and L. Dong. 2014. DEnKF-Variational Hybrid Snow Cover Fraction Data Assimilation for Improving Snow Simulations with the Common Land Model. Remote Sensing 6(11):10612-10635. DOI: 10.3390/rs61110612.

Yao, W. Q., H. Lin and J. Derome. 2011. Submonthly forecasting of winter surface air temperature in North America based on organized tropical convection. Atmosphere-Ocean 49(1):51-60. DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2011.556882.

Yuan, X., E. F. Wood and Z. Ma. 2015. A review on climate-model-based seasonal hydrologic forecasting: Physical understanding and system development. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water 2(5):523–536. DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1088.

Yuh, J. 2000. Design and control of autonomous underwater robots: A survey. Autonomous Robots 8(1):7-24. DOI: 10.1023/A:1008984701078.

Zhang, C. D. 2005. Madden-Julian Oscillation. Reviews of Geophysics 43(2). DOI: 10.1029/2004rg000158.

Zhang, C. D. 2013. Madden-Julian Oscillation bridging weather and climate. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 94(12):1849-1870. DOI: 10.1175/Bams-D-12-00026.1.

Zhang, F., D.M.Fratantoni,D.A.Paley,J.M.Lund and N.E.Leonard. 2007. Control of coordinated patterns for ocean sampling. International Journal of Control 80(7):1186-1199. DOI: 10.1080/00207170701222947.

Zhang, X. F., S. Q. Zhang, Z. Y. Liu, X. R. Wu and G. J. Han. 2015. Parameter optimization in an intermediate coupled climate model with biased physics. Journal of Climate 28(3):1227-1247. DOI: 10.1175/Jcli-D-14-00348.1.

Zhang, Y., J. M. Wallace and D. S. Battisti. 1997. ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. Journal of Climate 10(5):1004-1020. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1004:Eliv>2.0.Co;2.

Zhang, Y.F.,T.J.Hoar,Z.L.Yang,J.L.Anderson,A.M.Toure and M.Rodell.2014.Assimilation of MODIS snow cover through the Data Assimilation Research Testbed and the Community Land Model version 4. Journal of Geophysical Research—Atmospheres 119(12):7091-7103. DOI: 10.1002/2013JD021329.

Zwiefelhofer, W. 2008. Trends in High-Performance Computing. Presented at World Modelling Summit for Climate Prediction, May 6-9, 2008, Reading, UK.

Zwiers, F. W. 1996. Interannual variability and predictability in an ensemble of AMIP climate simulations conducted with the CCC GCM2. Climate Dynamics 12(12):825-847. DOI: 10.1007/s003820050146.