Future Directions for
NSF ADVANCED
COMPUTING
INFRASTRUCTURE
to Support U.S. Science and
Engineering in 2017-2020
Committee on Future Directions for NSF Advanced Computing
Infrastructure to Support U.S. Science in 2017-2020
Computer Science and Telecommunications Board
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
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This activity was supported by Award No. OCI-1344417 from the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-38961-7
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Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/21886
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Future Directions for NSF Advanced Computing Infrastructure to Support U.S. Science and Engineering in 2017-2020. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi:10.17226/21886.
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COMMITTEE ON FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR NSF ADVANCED COMPUTING INFRASTRUCTURE TO SUPPORT U.S. SCIENCE IN 2017-2020
WILLIAM D. GROPP, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Co-Chair
ROBERT J. HARRISON, Stony Brook University, Co-Chair
MARK R. ABBOTT, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
ROBERT L. GROSSMAN, University of Chicago
PETER M. KOGGE, University of Notre Dame
PADMA RAGHAVAN, Pennsylvania State University
DANIEL A. REED, University of Iowa
VALERIE TAYLOR, Texas A&M University
KATHERINE A. YELICK, University of California, Berkeley
Staff
JON EISENBERG, Director, Computer Science and Telecommunications Board, and Study Director
SHENAE BRADLEY, Administrative Assistant
COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD
FARNAM JAHANIAN, Carnegie Mellon University, Chair
LUIZ ANDRÉ BARROSO, Google, Inc.
STEVEN M. BELLOVIN, Columbia University
ROBERT F. BRAMMER, Brammer Technology, LLC
EDWARD FRANK, Cloud Parity Inc. and Brilliant Lime Inc.
SEYMOUR E. GOODMAN, Georgia Institute of Technology
LAURA HAAS, IBM Corporation
MARK HOROWITZ, Stanford University
MICHAEL KEARNS, University of Pennsylvania
ROBERT KRAUT, Carnegie Mellon University
SUSAN LANDAU, Worcester Polytechnic Institute
PETER LEE, Microsoft Corporation
DAVID E. LIDDLE, US Venture Partners (retired)
BARBARA LISKOV, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
FRED B. SCHNEIDER, Cornell University
ROBERT F. SPROULL, University of Massachusetts, Amherst
JOHN STANKOVIC, University of Virginia
JOHN A. SWAINSON, Dell, Inc.
ERNEST J. WILSON, University of Southern California
KATHERINE A. YELICK, University of California, Berkeley
Staff
JON EISENBERG, Director
LYNETTE I. MILLETT, Associate Director
VIRGINIA BACON TALATI, Program Officer
SHENAE BRADLEY, Administrative Assistant
JANEL DEAR, Senior Program Assistant
EMILY GRUMBLING, Program Officer
RENEE HAWKINS, Financial and Administrative Manager
HERBERT S. LIN, Chief Scientist (emeritus)
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Preface
Advanced computing, a term used in this report to include both compute- and data-intensive capabilities, is used to tackle a rapidly growing range of challenging science and engineering problems. The National Science Foundation (NSF) requested that the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine carry out a study examining anticipated priorities and associated trade-offs for advanced computing in support of NSF-sponsored science and engineering research. The study encompasses advanced computing activities and programs throughout NSF, including, but not limited to, those of its Division of Advanced Cyberinfrastructure. The statement of task for the full study is given in Box P.1. In response to this request, the Academies established the Committee on Future Directions for NSF Advanced Computing Infrastructure to Support U.S. Science in 2017-2020 (see Appendix C).
The first phase of the study culminated in an interim report issued in 2014, Future Directions for NSF Advanced Computing Infrastructure to Support U.S. Science and Engineering in 2017-2020: An Interim Report, that identified key issues and discussed potential options. The interim report set forth nine major areas where the committee sought input from the scientific computing community (Box P.2). The committee received over 60 comments from individuals, research groups, and organizations (listed in Appendix A) in response to its call for comments. It gathered further input through additional data-gathering sessions convened by the committee and listed in Appendix B. This is the committee’s final report. As this study was being completed, an executive order was issued estab-
lishing a National Strategic Computer Initiative (NSCI), a measure that underscores the importance of advanced computing for the nation in general—and for science in particular. This report briefly discusses NSF’s role in the NSCI; see Section 2.7 and Box 2.5.
William D. Gropp and Robert J. Harrison, Co-Chairs
Committee on Future Directions for NSF Advanced Computing
Infrastructure to Support U.S. Science in 2017-2020
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Daniel E. Atkins III, University of Michigan,
David A. Bader, Georgia Institute of Technology,
Robert Brammer, Brammer Technology, LLC,
Andrew A. Chien, University of Chicago,
Jeff Dozier, University of California, Santa Barbara,
Dennis Gannon, Microsoft Research (retired),
Gary S. Grest, Sandia National Laboratories,
Laura M. Haas, IBM,
Anthony (“Tony”) John Grenville Hey, University of Washington eScience Institute,
David Keyes, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology,
Michael L. Klein, Temple University,
David A. Lifka, Cornell University,
Jeremiah P. Ostriker, Columbia University,
Terrence J. Sejnowski, Salk Institute for Biological Studies,
Marc Snir, Argonne National Laboratory,
Warren M. Washington, National Center for Atmospheric Research, and
John West, Texas Advanced Computing Center.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Marcia J. Rieke, University of Arizona, and Butler W. Lampson, Microsoft Research, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Contents
1 OVERVIEW AND RECOMMENDATIONS
1.1 Position the United States for Continued Leadership in Science and Engineering
1.2 Ensure Resources Meet Community Needs
1.3 Aid the Scientific Community in Keeping Up with the Revolution in Computing
1.4 Sustain the Infrastructure for Advanced Computing
2.2 Past Studies of Advanced Computing for Science
2.3 High-Performance Computing Terminology
2.5 NSF Investments in Advanced Computing
2.6 Demand for and Use of NSF Advanced Computing Resources
2.7 National Strategic Computing Initiative
4.1 The Structure of NSF Investments and the Branscomb Pyramid
4.2 Data-Intensive Science and the Needs for Advanced Computing
4.3 Forecasting Future Requirements
4.4 Thinking About a New Approach to Develop Requirements for Advanced Computing
5 INVESTMENT TRADE-OFFS IN ADVANCED COMPUTING
5.1 Trade-offs Among Compute, Data, and Communications
5.2 Trade-offs for Data-Intensive Science
5.3 Trade-offs for Simulation Science
5.4 Data-Focused, Simulation-Focused, and Converged Architectures
5.5 Trade-offs Between Support for Production Advanced Computing and Preparing for Future Needs
5.6 Configuration Choices and Trade-offs
6.2 Organizational Challenges and Community Needs
6.3 Potential Sustainability Approaches
A List of Individuals, Research Groups, and Organizations That Submitted Comments
B Information-Gathering Meetings