Analytic Research
Foundations for the
Next-Generation
Electric Grid
Committee on Analytical Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid
Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS500 Fifth Street, NWWashington, DC 20001
This study was supported by Contract No. DE-PI0000010/DE-DT0005900 with the Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, or conclusions expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-39231-0
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-39231-4
Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/21919
This report is available in limited quantities from the Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications, 500 Fifth Street NW, Washington, DC 20001; bmsa@nas.edu, http://www.nas.edu/bmsa.
Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu/.
Copyright 2016 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi:10.17226/21919.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president.
The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.
The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.
Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.national-academies.org.
This page intentionally left blank.
COMMITTEE ON ANALYTICAL RESEARCH FOUNDATIONS
FOR THE NEXT-GENERATION ELECTRIC GRID
JOHN GUCKENHEIMER, Cornell University, Co-Chair
THOMAS J. OVERBYE, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Co-Chair
DANIEL BIENSTOCK, Columbia University
ANJAN BOSE, Washington State University
TERRY BOSTON, PJM Interconnection, LLC
JEFFERY DAGLE, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
MARIJA D. ILIC, Carnegie Mellon University
CHRISTOPHER K. JONES, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
FRANK P. KELLY, University of Cambridge
YANNIS G. KEVREKIDIS, Princeton University
RALPH D. MASIELLO, Quanta Technologies
JUAN C. MEZA, University of California, Merced
CYNTHIA RUDIN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
ROBERT J. THOMAS, Cornell University
MARGARET H. WRIGHT, New York University
Staff
SCOTT T. WEIDMAN, Board Director
NEAL GLASSMAN, Study Director
ALAN CRANE, Senior Staff Scientist, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
RODNEY N. HOWARD, Administrative Assistant
BOARD ON MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS
DONALD G. SAARI, University of California, Irvine, Chair
DOUGLAS N. ARNOLD, University of Minnesota
JOHN B. BELL, E. O. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
VICKI M. BIER, University of Wisconsin, Madison
JOHN R. BIRGE, University of Chicago
RONALD R. COIFMAN, Yale University
L. ANTHONY COX, JR., Cox Associates, Inc.
MARK L. GREEN, University of California, Los Angeles
PATRICIA A. JACOBS, Naval Postgraduate School
BRYNA KRA, Northwestern University
JOSEPH A. LANGSAM, Morgan Stanley (retired)
SIMON A. LEVIN, Princeton University
ANDREW W. LO, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
DAVID MAIER, Portland State University
WILLIAM A. MASSEY, Princeton University
JUAN C. MEZA, University of California, Merced
FRED S. ROBERTS, Rutgers University
GUILLERMO R. SAPIRO, Duke University
CARL P. SIMON, University of Michigan
KATEPALLI SREENIVASAN, New York University
ELIZABETH A. THOMPSON, University of Washington
Staff
SCOTT T. WEIDMAN, Director
NEAL GLASSMAN, Senior Program Officer
MICHELLE K. SCHWALBE, Senior Program Officer
RODNEY N. HOWARD, Administrative Assistant
BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Mihai Anitescu, Argonne National Laboratory,
Seth Blumsack, Pennsylvania State University,
Karen Butler-Purry, Texas A&M University,
Michael Chertkov, Los Alamos National Laboratory,
Michael Ferris, University of Wisconsin,
Narain Hingorani, Independent Consultant,
Peter Sauer, University of Illinois,
Carson Taylor, Bonneville Power Administration (retired), and
Alan Washburn, Naval Postgraduate School.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report, nor did they see the final draft of this report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by M. Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University, who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
The committee also acknowledges the valuable contributions of the following individuals, who either provided input at its meetings, on which this report is based, or contributed in other ways:
Eyad Abed, National Science Foundation,
Mihai Anitescu, Argonne National Laboratory,
Emanuel Bernabeu, Dominion Technical Solutions, Inc.,
Gil Bindewald, Department of Energy (DOE),
Jan Caspary, Southwest Power Pool,
Hong Chen, Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection LLC (PJM),
Nicolai Dumitriu, PJM,
Timothy Heidel, Advanced Research Products Agency-Energy,
Adam Keech, PJM,
Sandy Landsberg, DOE,
Mark McGranaghan, Electric Power Research Institute,
David Meyer, DOE,
David Ortiz, DOE,
Russell Robertson, Grid Protection Alliance, and
Stan Williams, PJM.
The committee also organized the Workshop on Analytical Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid, which took place on February 11-12, 2015, at the Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center of the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering in Irvine, California, and received valuable information from the speakers at that workshop. The agenda for that workshop is reprinted in Appendix A of this report, and a summary of the workshop, Mathematical Sciences Research Challenges for the Next-Generation Electric Grid: Summary of a Workshop, is available from http://www.nap.edu.
Contents
1 PHYSICAL STRUCTURE OF THE EXISTING GRID AND CURRENT TRENDS
Interconnected Alternating Current Power Grids
Basic Circuits—Quasi-Steady-State Time Frame
Three-Phase Power Systems and Per-Phase Analysis
Illustrative Types of Analysis Needed for the Grid
Power Flow—Steady-State Analysis
Interconnected Power System Steady-State Operations
Longer-Term Power System Planning
2 ORGANIZATIONS AND MARKETS IN THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY
History of Federal and State Regulation with Regional Standards Development
Reliability Organization Development
North American Regional Entities
Examples of International Markets
Australian National Electricity Market
3 EXISTING ANALYTIC METHODS AND TOOLS
Steady-State Contingency Analysis
Optimal Power Flow and Security-Constrained Optimal Power Flow
Transient Stability and Longer-Term Dynamics
Modeling High-Impact, Low-Frequency Events
4 BACKGROUND: MATHEMATICAL RESEARCH AREAS IMPORTANT FOR THE GRID
General-Purpose Optimization Methods and Software
Grid-Related Continuous Optimization
Risk Analysis, Reliability, Machine Learning, and Statistics
Classification and Hazard Modeling
Uncertainty in What Lies Ahead
Technologies That Will Enhance the Observability of the Grid
Technologies That Will Enhance the Controllability of the Grid
Mathematical and Computational Challenges in Grid Architectures
Mathematical and Computational Challenges in Local Distribution Grid Architectures
6 MATHEMATICAL RESEARCH PRIORITIES ARISING FROM THE ELECTRIC GRID
Data-Driven Models of the Electric Grid
The Role of Control Theory in the Changing Electric Energy Systems
Physics-Based Simulations for the Grid
Creating Hybrid Data/Human Expert Systems for Operations
Machine-Learning Models for Hazard Modeling and Reliability
Visualization Tools for Understanding Data
Machine Learning for Long-Term Planning
Convex Relaxation in Grid-Related Optimization
Robust and Chance-Constrained Optimization
Challenges in Modeling the Electric Grid’s Coupling with Other Infrastructures
Case Study in Optimization: PJM’s Daily Operations
Capacity Market—Reliability Pricing Model Optimization
Challenges for the Day-Ahead Unit Commitment Formulation
Visualization and Interpretation of Results
Machine-Learning Methods Comprehensible to Human Experts
Mathematical Challenges to Improve Synchrophasor Measurements
Case Study in Inverter-Based Control for Stabilizing the Power System
8 BUILDING A MULTIDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH COMMUNITY
Example of a Multidisciplinary Team: PSERC
Example of a Multidisciplinary Effort: Markets
Examples from Other Disciplines
Recommendation for Synthetic Data Libraries
Recommendation for Software Libraries
Recommendation for Increased R&D Coordination