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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21919.
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Analytic Research
Foundations for the
Next-Generation
Electric Grid

Committee on Analytical Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid

Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, DC

www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21919.
×

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS500 Fifth Street, NWWashington, DC 20001

This study was supported by Contract No. DE-PI0000010/DE-DT0005900 with the Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, or conclusions expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-39231-0
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-39231-4
Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/21919

This report is available in limited quantities from the Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications, 500 Fifth Street NW, Washington, DC 20001; bmsa@nas.edu, http://www.nas.edu/bmsa.

Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu/.

Copyright 2016 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi:10.17226/21919.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21919.
×

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The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21919.
×

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21919.
×

COMMITTEE ON ANALYTICAL RESEARCH FOUNDATIONS
FOR THE NEXT-GENERATION ELECTRIC GRID

JOHN GUCKENHEIMER, Cornell University, Co-Chair

THOMAS J. OVERBYE, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Co-Chair

DANIEL BIENSTOCK, Columbia University

ANJAN BOSE, Washington State University

TERRY BOSTON, PJM Interconnection, LLC

JEFFERY DAGLE, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

MARIJA D. ILIC, Carnegie Mellon University

CHRISTOPHER K. JONES, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

FRANK P. KELLY, University of Cambridge

YANNIS G. KEVREKIDIS, Princeton University

RALPH D. MASIELLO, Quanta Technologies

JUAN C. MEZA, University of California, Merced

CYNTHIA RUDIN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

ROBERT J. THOMAS, Cornell University

MARGARET H. WRIGHT, New York University

Staff

SCOTT T. WEIDMAN, Board Director

NEAL GLASSMAN, Study Director

ALAN CRANE, Senior Staff Scientist, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

RODNEY N. HOWARD, Administrative Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21919.
×

BOARD ON MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS

DONALD G. SAARI, University of California, Irvine, Chair

DOUGLAS N. ARNOLD, University of Minnesota

JOHN B. BELL, E. O. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

VICKI M. BIER, University of Wisconsin, Madison

JOHN R. BIRGE, University of Chicago

RONALD R. COIFMAN, Yale University

L. ANTHONY COX, JR., Cox Associates, Inc.

MARK L. GREEN, University of California, Los Angeles

PATRICIA A. JACOBS, Naval Postgraduate School

BRYNA KRA, Northwestern University

JOSEPH A. LANGSAM, Morgan Stanley (retired)

SIMON A. LEVIN, Princeton University

ANDREW W. LO, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

DAVID MAIER, Portland State University

WILLIAM A. MASSEY, Princeton University

JUAN C. MEZA, University of California, Merced

FRED S. ROBERTS, Rutgers University

GUILLERMO R. SAPIRO, Duke University

CARL P. SIMON, University of Michigan

KATEPALLI SREENIVASAN, New York University

ELIZABETH A. THOMPSON, University of Washington

Staff

SCOTT T. WEIDMAN, Director

NEAL GLASSMAN, Senior Program Officer

MICHELLE K. SCHWALBE, Senior Program Officer

RODNEY N. HOWARD, Administrative Assistant

BETH DOLAN, Financial Associate

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21919.
×

Acknowledgments

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Mihai Anitescu, Argonne National Laboratory,

Seth Blumsack, Pennsylvania State University,

Karen Butler-Purry, Texas A&M University,

Michael Chertkov, Los Alamos National Laboratory,

Michael Ferris, University of Wisconsin,

Narain Hingorani, Independent Consultant,

Peter Sauer, University of Illinois,

Carson Taylor, Bonneville Power Administration (retired), and

Alan Washburn, Naval Postgraduate School.

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report, nor did they see the final draft of this report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by M. Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University, who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

The committee also acknowledges the valuable contributions of the following individuals, who either provided input at its meetings, on which this report is based, or contributed in other ways:

Eyad Abed, National Science Foundation,

Mihai Anitescu, Argonne National Laboratory,

Emanuel Bernabeu, Dominion Technical Solutions, Inc.,

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21919.
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Gil Bindewald, Department of Energy (DOE),

Jan Caspary, Southwest Power Pool,

Hong Chen, Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection LLC (PJM),

Nicolai Dumitriu, PJM,

Timothy Heidel, Advanced Research Products Agency-Energy,

Adam Keech, PJM,

Sandy Landsberg, DOE,

Mark McGranaghan, Electric Power Research Institute,

David Meyer, DOE,

David Ortiz, DOE,

Russell Robertson, Grid Protection Alliance, and

Stan Williams, PJM.

The committee also organized the Workshop on Analytical Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid, which took place on February 11-12, 2015, at the Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center of the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering in Irvine, California, and received valuable information from the speakers at that workshop. The agenda for that workshop is reprinted in Appendix A of this report, and a summary of the workshop, Mathematical Sciences Research Challenges for the Next-Generation Electric Grid: Summary of a Workshop, is available from http://www.nap.edu.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21919.
×

Uncertainty Quantification

References

5 PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE

Introduction

Uncertainty in What Lies Ahead

Technologies That Will Enhance the Observability of the Grid

Technologies That Will Enhance the Controllability of the Grid

Effects of Climate Change

Mathematical and Computational Challenges in Grid Architectures

Mathematical and Computational Challenges in Local Distribution Grid Architectures

Mathematical and Computational Challenges in Managing Interdependencies Between the Transmission and Local Distribution Grids/Microgrids

References

6 MATHEMATICAL RESEARCH PRIORITIES ARISING FROM THE ELECTRIC GRID

Introduction

Synthetic Data for Facilitating the Creation, Development, and Validation of New Power System Tools for Planning and Operations

Random Topology Networks

Data-Driven Models of the Electric Grid

The Role of Control Theory in the Changing Electric Energy Systems

Physics-Based Simulations for the Grid

Data-Driven Approaches for Improving Planning, Operations, and Maintenance and for Informing Other Types of Decision Making

Creating Hybrid Data/Human Expert Systems for Operations

Machine-Learning Models for Hazard Modeling and Reliability

Visualization Tools for Understanding Data

Detecting Who Has No Power

Machine Learning for Long-Term Planning

Optimization

Convex Relaxation in Grid-Related Optimization

Robust and Chance-Constrained Optimization

Challenges in Modeling the Electric Grid’s Coupling with Other Infrastructures

References

7 CASE STUDIES

Introduction

Case Study in Optimization: PJM’s Daily Operations

Day-Ahead Market

Real-Time Markets

Capacity Market—Reliability Pricing Model Optimization

Financial Transmission Rights

Challenges for the Day-Ahead Unit Commitment Formulation

Case Study in Mathematical Needs for the Modeling and Mitigation of High-Impact, Low-Frequency Events

Interdisciplinary Modeling

Rare Event Modeling

Resilience Control Center Design

Resilience Power System Design

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21919.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21919.
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Electricity is the lifeblood of modern society, and for the vast majority of people that electricity is obtained from large, interconnected power grids. However, the grid that was developed in the 20th century, and the incremental improvements made since then, including its underlying analytic foundations, is no longer adequate to completely meet the needs of the 21st century. The next-generation electric grid must be more flexible and resilient. While fossil fuels will have their place for decades to come, the grid of the future will need to accommodate a wider mix of more intermittent generating sources such as wind and distributed solar photovoltaics.

Achieving this grid of the future will require effort on several fronts. There is a need for continued shorter-term engineering research and development, building on the existing analytic foundations for the grid. But there is also a need for more fundamental research to expand these analytic foundations. Analytic Research Foundations for the Next-Generation Electric Grid provide guidance on the longer-term critical areas for research in mathematical and computational sciences that is needed for the next-generation grid. It offers recommendations that are designed to help direct future research as the grid evolves and to give the nation’s research and development infrastructure the tools it needs to effectively develop, test, and use this research.

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