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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. Economic and Development Implications of Transportation Disinvestment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22109.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. Economic and Development Implications of Transportation Disinvestment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22109.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. Economic and Development Implications of Transportation Disinvestment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22109.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. Economic and Development Implications of Transportation Disinvestment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22109.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. Economic and Development Implications of Transportation Disinvestment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22109.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. Economic and Development Implications of Transportation Disinvestment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22109.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

NAT IONAL COOPERAT IVE H IGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM NCHRP SYNTHESIS 480 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2015 www.TRB.org Research Sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials in Cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration SubScriber categorieS Economics • Finance • Highways Economic and Development Implications of Transportation Disinvestment A Synthesis of Highway Practice conSultantS Chandler Duncan and Glen Weisbrod Economic Development Research Group, Inc. Boston, Massachusetts

NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed research provides the most effective approach to the solution of many problems facing highway administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local interest and can best be studied by highway departments individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transportation develops increasingly complex problems of wide interest to highway authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. In recognition of these needs, the highway administrators of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials initiated in 1962 an objective national highway research program employing modern scientific techniques. This program is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of the Association and it receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration, United States Department of Transportation. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies was requested by the Association to administer the research program because of the Board’s recognized objectivity and understanding of modern research practices. The Board is uniquely suited for this purpose as it maintains an extensive committee structure from which authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; it possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, state, and local governmental agencies, universities, and industry; its relationship to the National Research Council is an insurance of objectivity; it maintains a full-time research correlation staff of specialists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of research directly to those who are in a position to use them. The program is developed on the basis of research needs identified by chief administrators of the highway and transportation departments and by committees of AASHTO. Each year, specific areas of research needs to be included in the program are proposed to the National Research Council and the Board by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. Research projects to fulfill these needs are defined by the Board, and qualified research agencies are selected from those that have submitted proposals. Administration and surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Research Council and the Transportation Research Board. The needs for highway research are many, and the National Cooperative Highway Research Program can make significant contributions to the solution of highway transportation problems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is intended to complement rather than to substitute for or duplicate other highway research programs. Published reports of the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at: http://www.national-academies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America NCHRP SYNTHESIS 480 Project 20-05, Topic 45-11 ISSN 0547-5570 ISBN 978-0-309-27190-5 Library of Congress Control No. 2015933597 © 2015 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their manuscripts and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that non of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, FAA, FHWA, FMSCA, FTA, or Transit development Corporation endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any development or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the National Co- operative Highway Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. NOTE: The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, the Federal Highway Administration, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, and the individual states participating in the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of this report.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished schol- ars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and techni- cal matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Acad- emy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achieve- ments of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Acad- emy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisci- plinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transporta- tion, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

TOPIC PANEL 45-11 GREG BISCHAK, CDFI Fund, Washington, D.C. TERRY L. CLOWER, Center for Economic Development and Research, Denton, TX SILVANA V. CROOPE, Delaware Department of Transportation, Smyrna MARTINE A. MICOZZI, Transportation Research Board JOE NESTLER, Wisconsin Department of Transportation, Madison BENJAMIN T. ORSBON, South Dakota Department of Transportation, Pierre JESSICA PETERS, California Legislative Analyst’s Office, Sacramento LYNN WEISKOPF, New York State Department of Transportation, Albany RABINDER K. BAINS, Federal Highway Administration (Liaison) SPENCER STEVENS, Federal Highway Administration (Liaison) SYNTHESIS STUDIES STAFF STEPHEN R. GODWIN, Director for Studies and Special Programs JON M. WILLIAMS, Program Director, IDEA and Synthesis Studies JO ALLEN GAUSE, Senior Program Officer GAIL R. STABA, Senior Program Officer DONNA L. VLASAK, Senior Program Officer TANYA M. ZWAHLEN, Consultant DON TIPPMAN, Senior Editor CHERYL KEITH, Senior Program Assistant DEMISHA WILLIAMS, Senior Program Assistant DEBBIE IRVIN, Program Associate COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAMS STAFF CHRISTOPHER W. JENKS, Director, Cooperative Research Programs CHRISTOPHER HEDGES, Manager, National Cooperative Highway Research Program EILEEN P. DELANEY, Director of Publications NCHRP COMMITTEE FOR PROJECT 20-05 CHAIR BRIAN A. BLANCHARD, Florida DOT MEMBERS STUART D. ANDERSON, Texas A&M University SOCORRO “COCO” BRISENO, California Department of Transportation CYNTHIA L. JONES, Ohio Department of Transportation DAVID M. JARED, Georgia Department of Transportation MALCOLM T. KERLEY, Virginia Department of Transportation (retired) JOHN M. MASON, JR., Auburn University CATHERINE NELSON, Salem, Oregon ROGER C. OLSON, Minnesota Department of Transportation BENJAMIN I. ORSBON, South Dakota Department of Transportation RANDALL R. “RANDY” PARK, Utah Department of Transportation ROBERT L. SACK, New York State Department of Transportation JOYCE N. TAYLOR, Maine Department of Transportation FRANCINE SHAW WHITSON, Federal Highway Administration FHWA LIAISONS JACK JERNIGAN MARY LYNN TISCHER TRB LIAISON STEPHEN F. MAHER ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Chandler Duncan and Glen Weisbrod of Economic Development Research Group were Co-Principal Investigators. Naomi Stein and Michael Rodriguez were contributing authors. Appreciation is extended to the National Park Service, the Minnesota DOT, the Mississippi DOT, the South Carolina DOT, the South Dakota DOT, the Connecticut DOT, and the Washington State DOT for participation in the case examples.

FOREWORD PREFACE By Jon M. Williams Program Director Transportation Research Board As demand for transportation facilities outstrips our ability to provide new facilities or even maintain existing ones, decision makers are faced with hard choices. They must critically examine the most efficient use of transportation facilities and how to prepare for investment or disinvestment over time. This study focuses on macroeconomic effects, intermodal tradeoffs, and methods for broadly informing disinvestment decision making in an era of constrained resources. The study examines methods available to estimate disinvestment effects on transportation system integrity within and across modes in urban areas, regionally, and in non-metro areas, and the use of those methods by transportation agencies. This includes economic forecasting and travel demand models, risk or probability models, needs models, and benefit and impact models. Information for this report was gathered through a survey of state departments of transportation, a literature review, and interviews with transportation officials. Seven case examples illustrate different disinvestment scenarios. Chandler Duncan and Glen Weisbrod, Economic Development Research Group, Inc., Boston, Massachusetts, collected and synthesized the information and wrote the report. The members of the topic panel are acknowledged on the preceding page. This synthesis is an immediately useful document that records the practices that were acceptable within the limitations of the knowledge available at the time of its preparation. As progress in research and practice continues, new knowledge will be added to that now at hand. Highway administrators, engineers, and researchers often face problems for which information already exists, either in documented form or as undocumented experience and practice. This information may be fragmented, scattered, and unevaluated. As a conse- quence, full knowledge of what has been learned about a problem may not be brought to bear on its solution. Costly research findings may go unused, valuable experience may be overlooked, and due consideration may not be given to recommended practices for solving or alleviating the problem. There is information on nearly every subject of concern to highway administrators and engineers. Much of it derives from research or from the work of practitioners faced with problems in their day-to-day work. To provide a systematic means for assembling and evaluating such useful information and to make it available to the entire highway commu- nity, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials—through the mechanism of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program—authorized the Transportation Research Board to undertake a continuing study. This study, NCHRP Proj- ect 20-5, “Synthesis of Information Related to Highway Problems,” searches out and syn- thesizes useful knowledge from all available sources and prepares concise, documented reports on specific topics. Reports from this endeavor constitute an NCHRP report series, Synthesis of Highway Practice. This synthesis series reports on current knowledge and practice, in a compact format, without the detailed directions usually found in handbooks or design manuals. Each report in the series provides a compendium of the best knowledge available on those measures found to be the most successful in resolving specific problems.

CONTENTS 1 SUMMARY 5 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION Background, 6 Study Approach, 10 11 CHAPTER TWO REVIEW OF CURRENT RESEARCH AND PRACTICE Literature on Disinvestment, 11 Models and Data for Analyzing Disinvestment, 20 25 CHAPTER THREE SUMMARY OF CASE EXAMPLES OF DISINVESTMENT Long Timelines of Economic Impacts from Disinvestment: Minnesota Department of Transportation, 25 Deferred Maintenance, Bridge Closures, and the Mobility–Preservation Tradeoff: South Carolina Department of Transportation, 26 Invest to Disinvest and Unintended Consequences: National Park Service Northeast Region, 27 Changing Demand, Disinvestment as a Base Case, and Business Input: South Dakota Department of Transportation, 28 Evolving Performance Needs, Economic Objectives, and the Urban Interstate: Connecticut Department of Transportation, 28 Simultaneous Investment and Disinvestment: Mississippi Department of Transportation, 30 Intentional Adjustment of Pavement and Safety Approaches to Lower Cost and Meet Needs: Washington State Department of Transportation, 30 Summary and Lessons Learned, 31 35 CHAPTER FOUR STATE OF THE PRACTICE REVIEW Who Makes Decisions in Disinvestment Situations?, 35 Context Surrounding Agency Disinvestment Situations, 35 Disinvestment Transparency and Process, 35 Disinvestment Analysis Methods, 36 Reasons for Not Conducting Economic Analysis, 36 Passive Disinvestment, 36 37 CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSIONS Overall Findings, 37 State of the Practice, 37 Areas for Future Research, 39

40 GLOSSARY OF TERMS AND ACRONYMS 42 REFERENCES 47 APPENDIX A CASE EXAMPLE DESCRIPTION OF SCREENING CRITERIA AND DISCUSSION GUIDE 48 APPENDIX B DESCRIPTIVE SUMMARY OF SURVEY RESULTS 58 APPENDIX C FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDS Note: Photographs, figures, and tables in this report may have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.

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TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Synthesis 480: Economic and Development Implications of Transportation Disinvestment examines methods available to estimate disinvestment effects on transportation system integrity within and across modes in urban areas, regionally, and in non-metro areas, and the use of those methods by transportation agencies. The report focuses on macroeconomic effects, intermodal tradeoffs, and methods for broadly informing disinvestment decision making in an era of constrained resources. The report includes information on economic forecasting and travel demand models, risk or probability models, needs models, and benefit and impact models.

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