Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
29 APPENDIX A Survey Questionnaire NCHRP TOPIC 45-07 SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE INTRODUCTION Financial forecasts provide baseline information needed for planning and system management. State transportation financial planning requires the estimation of revenue for both short-range and longer-range planning, and federal transportation planning regulations require state officials to develop estimates of funds expected to be available over both the four-year period of the State Transportation Improvement Plan (STIP) and the 20-year period of the Long Range Transportation Plan (LRTP). Because financial resources are becoming increasingly limited, states are exploring alternative and new revenue sources to meet their funding needs. More information is critically needed on current practices because accuracy in forecasting revenue is increasingly important even as financing mechanisms are increasingly diverse and uncertain. A review of published literature has revealed little guidance on or consistency in the methods used to forecast traditional revenue sources, such as fuel taxes and vehicle registration fees, and even less published information about how to forecast revenues from alternative sources, such as mileage based user fees (MBUF). State financial managers and transportation policy makers are faced with a range of issues affecting forecasts, including changes in fuel economy, VMT growth rates, and vehicle registration growth. At the same time, the accuracy of forecasting is becoming increasingly important. The NCHRP Synthesis Program is conducting this study to create an information resource of information on transportation revenue forecasting for traditional and innovative sources of funding. The study will use this survey to inform states of current practices among their peers and to identify further research needs. I am contacting you because of your membership on the AASHTO Subcommittee on Transportation Finance Policy. This survey will provide me with basic information and will be followed by telephone interviews as appropriate to elaborate upon its initial findings. Because this topic is incompletely addressed in the literature, the usefulness to states of the NCHRP Synthesis that will result from this study will depend in large part upon your participation. I thank you in advance for your time and thoughts. Please return the completed questionnaire via e-mail by [date] to: Martin Wachs Ph.D. E-mail: mwachs@ucla.edu Phone (323) 424-4075
30 CONTACT INFORMATION Please provide your contact information. NCHRP will e-mail you a link to the online report when it is completed. Agency: Address: City: State: ZIP: Questionnaire Respondent: Position/Title: In case of questions and for NCHRP to send you a link to the final report, please provide: Tel: E-mail: QUESTIONS 1. Does your agency directly produce estimates of revenues that will be available for transportation programsâ¦check a or complete b and check c or complete d: a) This transportation agency produces short term (e.g., 3â5 year) revenue forecasts _________________________ b) This transportation agency uses short term revenue forecasts produced by others as follows: __________________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________________ c) This transportation agency produces long term revenue forecasts______________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________________ d) This agency uses long term revenue forecasts produced by others as follows: __________________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________________ 2. What sources of revenue are routinely estimated in order to arrive at forecasts of future revenue? (Check those that are estimated.) a) Federal funds allocated to the state________ b) Gasoline per gallon taxes ________ c) Diesel fuel per gallon taxes _______ d) Vehicle registration and/or license fees________ e) Tolls __________________________ f) Allocations of state general revenues_______ g) State sales taxes designated for transportation________ h) Local (county or regional) sales and property taxes________ i) Others (please enumerate): ______________________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________________
31 3. Have the methods by which your agency estimates future transportation revenues been changed or updated during the last two years? a. No_________ 4. Yes, for the following reasons and in the following ways: ___________________________________________________________________________________________ the methods by which your agency produces short term and long term estimates of transportation revenues documented on a web-site or in a manual that could be made available to the Synthesis researchers? Please respond to one of the following a) Yes: The website at which this is available in: ___________________________________________________________________________________________ b) Yes: The forecasting methods are published in: ____________________________________________________ c) No: The foresting methods are informal and not documented, but the following resource person can be contacted for further information on how the forecasts are done: (name and contact information): ___________________________________________________________________________________________ a) Has your agency or a closely related agency developed proposals within the past two years to raise additional transportation revenue by raising rates or changing the structure of traditional transportation revenue sources? Examples would include increasing motor fuel tax rates or increasing state vehicle registration rates. If so, have estimates been prepared of the revenue potential of those changes? Please list reports or people who can be contacted for further information. b) No changes have been considered__________ c) The following changes have been considered: _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ d) Further information is available from: _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ 5. Has your agency or a closely related agency developed proposals within the past two years for new ânon- traditionalâ sources of transportation program revenues? If so, have estimates been prepared of the revenue potential of those possible sources of new revenue? Please list reports or people who can be contacted for further information. _______________________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________________ a) No changes have been considered__________ b) The following changes have been considered: _______________________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________________ c) Further information is available from: _______________________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________________
32 In the space below please enumerate what you consider to be the major shortcomings of the revenue forecasting7. techniques currently used by your agency.________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________________________ THANK YOU FOR YOUR ASSISTANCE.
