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Page 66
Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 5 - Business Plan." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2015. A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22176.
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66 Business Plan Overview In order to implement the certification on a nationwide basis, a clear structure must be developed, and an organization must be identified with a capacity to develop, implement and maintain the structure. This business plan assumes there will be two main players involved in implementing the program. First, there will be a national steering committee responsible for issuing an RFP and contracting with an administrator, ensuring overall quality of implementation, and being responsible to the industry. This organization may be a successor to the Project F-19 panel, a newly established nonprofit, a subcommittee of APTA, or an informal committee of industry leaders. This steering organization will in turn select an AO. The AO, through a creden- tialing management system, will provide a consistent and timely confirmation of a participant’s progress through the competency model, and issue the certifications. The AO will also, either directly or through subcontractors, develop an infrastructure to directly deliver the training needed for the competency model, as well as overseeing the approval and acceptance of alternative courses. Structural Elements of AO The Project Team envisions that the AO could be an existing organization with the appropriate capacity and experience, or a newly formed nonprofit created for the purpose of implementing the program. It seems likely though, that a brand new organization whose sole purpose would be running the ICP would have more significant fixed costs than an existing organization with experience running similar or complementary programs. The organization should meet the requirements and be answerable to a standing committee of industry representatives to ensure that all expectations for the program are met. As part of the program launch, a number of critical qualifications for the AO should be sought in the RFP. The selected organization should possess these characteristics, listed in rough order of priority: • Ability to manage a program of national scope: The organization will need to communicate the value of the program to the industry as a whole and be able to administer the program without bias to any geographic region. • Experience working with transit industry: The organization should have the ability to work with multiple transit stakeholders and understand the challenges and limitations transit organizations face. • Documented instructional design expertise and material development capacity: The organi- zation will need to finalize the design of the competency model and develop all material to implement the curriculum in the identified delivery methods. C H A P T E R 5 Business Plan

Business Plan 67 • Training delivery experience, especially to instructors: The organization will need to deliver directly or subcontract with experienced trainers. It will be advantageous to have experienced training professionals and transit personnel. • Certification program administration experience and program design and administration staff: The organization will need to show a plan to use a robust credentialing management system that can seamlessly track a participant’s progress and communicate progress to participants and employing agencies. • IT infrastructure (Training and certification information management system): Experience with an adequate credentialing management system and the IT capacity to implement the program will be critical. • Sound legal system to protect against liabilities. • ADA requirements. • Program maintenance: The organization will need to have a plan to regularly review the program, update core competencies, and revise the program as necessary to meet the ongoing needs of the industry. Potential Organizations for Program Development and Delivery In Task 1 of the project, SME survey respondents provided a list of organizations that may have the potential to develop and deliver all or some components of the national training and certification program. The suggested organizations included: • Colleges, universities and technical schools (13): Many respondents consider any educational institution that prepares teachers in teaching methods for adult learners as potentially capable of carrying out the program. A dozen examples were given by the respondents, mostly local colleges and universities in their areas. • For profit and not-for-profit training, research and technical assistance organizations (8): Many of these organizations have provided training and/or certification programs to transit maintenance personnel or trainers. • Industry associations (2): Industry associations have increasingly taken on workforce develop- ment as a priority of their services to members. In the Project F-19 survey, respondents mentioned one national and one state public transportation association as examples. • Large transit agencies (2): Large training departments can have well-developed programs to prepare skilled technical workers to become equally skilled instructors. These training environments stress strong preparation for classroom time, solid documentation on what is taught and hands-on and interactive learning. Survey participants included two examples of large transit agencies as potential providers. The full details of these programs are included in the Task 2, Best Practices Report found in Chapter 3. • OEMs (4): Despite their role in transit technical training, only one respondent listed transit OEMs as potential organizations for delivering instructor training. The organizations with potential in developing and delivering instructor training and/or certification as identified through the SME survey are listed in Appendix B, along with their locations and respondent comments. An original task assignment called for the Project Team to assess the capabilities of these organizations. However, the oversight panel thought it best to leave that work for the future competitive RFP process and instead steered the Project Team toward identifying the qualification requirements needed for a national AO, and identifying existing training programs and courses that could be considered as equal alternatives to core program offerings. The list of potential organizations provides a reference point to the future AO selection process.

68 A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors Core Competency Course Delivery A major factor in determining costs for development, delivery, and administration of the program depends on the method of course delivery selected. There are three possible options for managing the delivery of each course described in the core competency model. First, existing courses from outside providers could be accepted as equivalent for meeting all competency requirements of the model. For each core competency course, the AO will confirm that a course submitted meets the requirements, and review the reflection paper and/or course capstone requirements against an objective model. The process for evaluating these courses is described later. Alternatively, the AO or a single subcontractor could directly offer courses specifically designed to meet these competencies and delivered directly to transit instructors. Further, each of those courses could be delivered either through a traditional classroom setting or an e-learning/ video conferencing platform. There are a number of advantages and disadvantages to pursuing the different approaches as shown in Table 5.1. It seems that, with the exception of the course for mentor core competencies, there will not usually be enough participation in the program to make centralized in-person delivery of the courses viable. It would require travel for multiple days to a central location, or an instructor traveling to different regions, but in that case achieving a sufficient class size will be very difficult. In turn, with a very small class size, per student and per course cost will need to be higher, and that will further suppress participation. However, the AO may be able to identify some courses that could be offered on a limited basis in person, perhaps by tying it to another event that will draw instructors and transit professionals nationwide, such as the NTI Transit Trainers’ workshop or various APTA conferences. The e-learning and video conferencing option will almost certainly require a significant up-front development investment, but would offer flexible scheduling of courses at a reasonable cost to the AO and a reasonable charge to those pursuing certification. (Note: There may also be some existing e-learning courses that some potential AO, or subcontractors to the AO, may have that may meet some or all of the program requirements. Identifying if these exist and how to make them viable for use in the certification program will be an important part of determining development Advantages Disadvantages Outside Equivalent Courses The courses already exist and are dispersed geographically Interaction with instructors from other industries Courses not limited to transit instructor population means they can be offered more regularly Inconsistent experiences and emphases May require more time and commitment than necessary (i.e., enrollment in full grad program) Directly Delivered Courses – In-Person Consistent delivery of content that can be continually evaluated In-person interaction of transit instructors sharing best practices Need funding for development of single approved curriculum and courseware Travel costs for instructor and/or students Limited scheduling ability; would need to cancel course if enrollment not sufficient Directly Delivered Courses – E-Learning / Video Conferencing Consistent delivery of content that can be continually evaluated Interaction of transit instructors sharing best practices More flexible scheduling Substantial development cost for platform and e-learning material Inconsistent equipment on user end to participate in the classes Table 5.1. Advantages and disadvantages of course delivery approaches.

Business Plan 69 costs accurately.) Using a centrally developed e-learning and video conferencing curriculum also ensures that all participants receive the same information and level of quality and will provide opportunities for participants to learn from each other in a collaborative environment. However, it also seems important to offer the flexibility for students to submit equivalent outside courses to demonstrate the competencies. The conclusion is that the advantages and disadvantages for delivering the course on different platforms, or accepting existing courses as equivalent, will be slightly different for each course that is part of the program plan. There is no distinct advantage to forcing all courses into one mode of delivery, and the AO will need to explore the best available options for each course. The business plan therefore assumes a mix of delivery methods will be used. The operating cost and revenue projections included later assume an offering of e-learning classes will be available for all courses except mentoring, and that mentoring will be delivered in person. The projections also assume that at least one equivalent existing course will be identified for each part of the program plan, and that these outside courses will be chosen by 50 percent of the participants. Initial Development Costs Developing a full suite of e-learning and video conferencing materials for delivering the core competency model will require a significant investment. A common rule of thumb is that for each hour of instruction, 10–25 hours of professional instructional design time is necessary. With the necessity of extensive interactive material, it is reasonable to think these costs would be on the high end of that estimate. This would give an estimated development cost of: 92 hours instructional time 20 hours of development per hours of instruction $100 hr fully loaded cost of professional instructional design $184,000 × × = As shown later in the operating cost and revenue projections, even at a high rate of participation among transit maintenance instructors, the projected revenue surplus is not enough to attract an organization to front the money for initial development at this level. It seems very likely that some initial source of the money needs to be found through a consortium of transit agencies, newly established nonprofit, or potential grants. A similar situation was faced with the launch of the Transit Bus Mechanic testing program, where ASE received funding to develop the initial tests in exchange for an agreement to offer and administer the tests for a minimum of five years regardless of participation levels. As mentioned earlier, there may be some courses for which some of this development has already been completed, but it is likely there will still be significant investment needed. Another possibility to be explored is if the participation levels could be significantly expanded by changing the focus of the credential from maintenance instructors only to all transit instructors. This possibility was mentioned during the Project Team’s presentation and discussion at NTI’s Transit Trainers’ Workshop. The operating side of transit receives a lot of attention, and it was suggested that including operating trainers would garner more organizational support of the program. While some changes in the core competency model would be needed, it would in large part apply to all instructors as is. Unfortunately, the research done on participation levels to this point focused solely on maintenance instructors, and it is unclear how much larger the full instructor population is and if the NTI participants correctly estimated the interest level. If this is explored further it may be the case that a significantly higher participation level could provide enough surplus revenue to amortize the significant up-front development costs. How- ever, because of the uncertainty, the analysis that follows assumes a program focused only on the maintenance instructor population.

70 A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors Participation Projections and Operating Cost Analysis For the transit trainer certification program to be sustainable, several critical items must be present: • Sufficient participation levels from transit trainers and agencies initially and over time. • Revenues from participants fully cover the long term costs of the organization(s) implementing the program. • Charges for certification are set to levels that are reasonable for agencies, and provide a clear ROI. Participation Estimates To determine the projected participation over time, the Project Team looked at three different populations identified in Task 1: current transit agency instructors (~600), projected annual new instructors (~40), and current mentors (~3,700). For incumbent instructors, the Project Team assumes that participation levels will be lower than participation levels for new instructors after the certification program is launched. This is due to a number of incumbent instructors being in the middle or latter part of their careers, and the likelihood that transit agencies may “grandfather” or otherwise not incentivize participation of current employees in the program in the same way as new employees. Based on these under- standings, the Project Team projected that over the first five years of the program, 20–40 percent of the instructor population would participate, but that 40–80 percent of each year’s new crop of instructors would begin the program. Mentors may benefit from portions of the certification program. The development of strong mentoring practices may help identify talent for future full-time instructors, improve the overall culture of training, and be key to the sustainability of the certification program. The Project Team estimated a steady population of 3,700 instructors, and that 6–10 percent will participate in some portion of the program each year. These assumptions provide the following projections over 10 years as shown in Table 5.2. Assumptions Applied to Revenue/Cost Projections It should be noted that Year 1 draws only from incumbent trainers; “new trainers” begin with Year 2. Also, after Year 5 the Project Team assumes that all of the present populations of trainers Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Instructor Participants High Projection 48 80 80 80 80 32 32 32 32 32 Medium Projection 36 60 60 60 60 24 24 24 24 24 Low Projection 24 40 40 40 40 16 16 16 16 16 Mentor Participants High Projection 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 Medium Projection 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 Low Projection 222 222 222 222 222 222 222 222 222 222 Table 5.2. Ten-year participant projections.

Business Plan 71 who will participate have participated and so there is a drop off at that point. However, the fixed costs will also be front loaded in the early years, so a smaller participation level is necessary for sustainability after the initial costs are covered. Although the courses are not assigned to a strict time frame in the competency model, for the purposes of projecting revenue the Project Team has assumed that students, on average, will move through the program over the course of three years. The Project Team has also assumed some attrition through the program. It is projected that 10 percent of those who begin will not proceed to the second year of courses and an additional 20 percent will not proceed to the third year. The team projected that of the 10 courses identified, participants will submit the equivalent course documentation for four of them and take the remainder directly administered through the program. Whether these participation levels are sufficient to sustain the program will depend on the costs charged and the variable and fixed costs to the implementing organization. The plan to achieve the necessary participation will be discussed later. Annual Operating Costs (Fixed and Variable) As noted earlier, depending on the structure chosen for delivering classes, there may be substantial up-front development costs for e-learning and other courseware development, and platforms for delivering courses remotely via video conferencing. This analysis focuses on ongoing fixed and variable operating costs. It will almost certainly be necessary for separate funding from agencies, other organizations, or the steering organization to be identified to cover the pre-program launch costs. Each year, there will be relatively fixed costs for a website, marketing of the program to agen- cies, the credentialing management system license and administration, and ongoing updates of the competency model. An initial analysis estimates that these costs will be in the range of $35,000–50,000 per year. A detailed projection is provided in Table 5.3. Other costs will be variable based on the number of participants and the attrition and progress of participants through the program. The main types of costs are per course offering for courses offered directly through the AO, and the review of equivalent courses, evaluation of portfolios and other deliverables to confirm that competencies have been achieved, and the evaluation of the final capstone project. The cost projection is $1,000 per offering of an 8-hour course via video conferencing, or $1,500 for courses offered in person. The primary driver of these costs is direct instructor time; other costs such as curriculum development and updating are included elsewhere. The number of offerings of the course needed was calculated by the projected participation, assuming a goal of eight enrollees per course offering, and assuming that half of participants would take the course directly through the certification program and half would submit an equivalent outside course. Review of portfolios and reflection papers is projected at $25 per course and $100 for the capstone project. Revenues To cover the administration costs, several fees would be charged to participants during the certification program: • Initial registration fee (proposed at $100). • Review of course documentation and portfolios for four Training Delivery courses: $200. • Review of course documentation and portfolios for four Instructional Design courses: $200.

72 A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Projected Parcipaon Parcipang Trainers (from Year 1 populaon) 48 48 48 48 48 0 0 0 0 0 Parcipang Trainers (from New Hires each year) 0 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 Parcipang Mentors 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 370 Fees/Income (Constant $ in Thousands) Cerficaon System Registraon (Charged at beginning to parcipang instructors) $100 4.8 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Training Delivery Courses Mentoring Course (In Person) $250 92.5 92.5 92.5 92.5 92.5 92.5 92.5 92.5 92.5 92.5 Oral and Wrien Communicaon $250 7.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Adult Learning $250 7.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Delivering Instrucon $250 7.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Instruconal Design Courses Assessment and Process Analysis $250 0.0 6.5 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Instruconal Technology $250 0.0 6.5 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Lesson Plan Design $250 0.0 6.5 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Instruconal Material Development $250 0.0 6.5 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Program Design Courses Standards Based Training $250 0.0 0.0 5.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Program Evalua on and Management $250 0.0 0.0 5.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Curriculum Development $250 0.0 0.0 5.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Review of Course Documenta on and Porolios (Training Delivery Level) $200 9.6 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 Review of Course Documenta on and Porolios (Instruc onal Design Level) $200 0.0 8.6 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 Review of Course Documenta on and Porolios (Program Design Level) $150 0.0 0.0 5.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Review of Final Capstone Project $150 0.0 0.0 5.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Total Fees/Income 123.7 179.1 227.3 244.1 244.1 212.9 178.3 153.1 153.1 153.1 Table 5.3. Operating revenue vs. cost analysis of transit trainer and mentor certification program— high participation estimate.

Business Plan 73 Costs (Constant $ in Thousands) Note: These are recurring operang costs, both fixed and variable. There are other one me startup costs that will have to be invested and recovered over me or covered through other possible sources. Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Fixed Costs (Overall) Updates for Task Analysis, Competency Model and Program Review (ongoing and major update every 5 yrs, incl. SME travel) 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Marke ng to Agencies / ROI Analysis 10.0 10.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Public Website Maintenance 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Legal Costs (incl. insurance) 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 Creden al Management System License and Admin 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 Total Fixed Costs 47.5 47.5 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 Variable Costs Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Training Delivery Courses Mentoring Course (In-Person) $1,500 46.5 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 Oral and Wrien Communicaon $1,000 6.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Adult Learning $1,000 6.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Delivering Instrucon $1,000 6.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Instruconal Design Courses Assessment and Process Analysis $1,000 0.0 6.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Instruconal Technology $1,000 0.0 6.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Lesson Plan Design $1,000 0.0 6.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Instruconal Material Development $1,000 0.0 6.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Program Design Courses Standards-Based Training $1,000 0.0 0.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Program Evaluaon and Management $1,000 0.0 0.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Curriculum Development $1,000 0.0 0.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Review of Course Documentaon and Por­olios (Training Delivery Level) ($25/person/course) $25 4.8 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Review of Course Documentaon and Por­olios (Instruconal Design Level) ($25/person/course) $25 0.0 4.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 Review of Course Documentaon and Por­olios (Program Design Level) ($25/person/course) $25 0.0 0.0 2.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 Review of Capstone Projects $100 0.0 0.0 3.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 2.2 2.2 2.2 Total Variable Costs 69.3 117.3 153.1 163.0 163.0 140.2 115.9 98.0 98.0 98.0 Total Costs 116.8 164.8 193.1 203.0 203.0 180.2 155.9 138.0 138.0 138.0 Annual Cost Excess/Shortage 6.9 14.2 34.2 41.1 41.1 32.7 22.5 15.1 15.1 15.1 Cumulave Reserve/Loss 6.9 21.1 55.4 96.5 137.6 170.3 192.7 207.9 223.0 238.1 Table 5.3. (Continued).

74 A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors • Review of course documentation and portfolios for three Program Design courses: $200. • Review of final capstone project and issuing certification: $150. Total cost to agency or trainer for certification: $850. There will also be costs for taking the courses themselves. If a participant is taking an approved equivalent course from an outside provider, the charges will be paid directly to that provider. It is projected that a fee of $250 per course for those taking courses directly through the certification managing organization. 10-Year Operating Profit/Loss Projections Tables 5.3 to 5.6 show one year cost and revenue projections based on different assumptions. Table 5.3 assumes participation for mentors and instructors will follow the “High” level projection model. Under this level of participation and using the fees indicated. Under this model, there is a projected operating profit starting with Year 1 and an ongoing projected profit of $15,000 per year from Year 8 forward. Table 5.4 assumes participation follows the “Low” model. In this case there is an operating loss almost every year, and the program would not be sustainable without significant fee increases. However, those fee increases might further decrease participation, leading to a spiral downward. Participation must certainly come in above the low projections for the program to work, and a strong marketing program and understanding of the ROI among the agencies will be critically necessary to achieve the required participation. Table 5.5 takes the “Medium” level of participation and projects the necessary fees to break even. In this case only a slight increase to the charge for the mentor course (to $260) would provide fiscal stability, as the excess from the mentor course can subsidize the overall program. Finally, Table 5.6 projects the necessary participation level given the initial projected fees. The key takeaway here is that the sustainability of the program decreases with higher instructor participation unless the mentor participation increases by a similar amount. In the long term, participation of 32 instructors per year and 270 mentors per year would provide a small annual operating surplus. All of the numbers in these projections are very preliminary and have a wide margin of error. As even the most optimistic projections do not show a substantial operating margin, the implementation of the program in an efficient manner by a well-qualified flexible organization will be critical for success. A focus of upcoming meetings with SMEs will be to determine the reasonableness of these assumptions and what steps will be necessary to ensure the required participation levels. A significant part of the evaluation of the RFP responses should be the organization’s plan to achieve the necessary participation levels for sustainability. Summary of Projections The projected operating surpluses or losses (not including up-front development costs before Year 1) are shown in Table 5.7. These figures assume that all courses except mentor training are offered in an online, video conferencing format, that one half of courses are taken directly through the program, while the others are taken through equivalent outside courses, and that there are eight participants per course offering. All participants, regardless of where courses are taken, would be required to pay the full registration fee.

Business Plan 75 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Projected Parcipaon Parcipang Trainers (from Year 1 populaon) 24 24 24 24 24 0 0 0 0 0 Parcipang Trainers (from New Hires each year) 0 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 Parcipang Mentors 222 222 222 222 222 222 222 222 222 222 Fees/Income (Constant $ in Thousands) Cerficaon System Registraon (Charged at beginning to parcipang instructors) $100 2.4 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Training Delivery Courses Mentoring Course (In Person) $250 55.5 55.5 55.5 55.5 55.5 55.5 55.5 55.5 55.5 55.5 Oral and Wrien Communicaon $250 3.6 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Adult Learning $250 3.6 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Delivering Instrucon $250 3.6 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Instruconal Design Courses Assessment and Process Analysis $250 0.0 3.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Instruconal Technology $250 0.0 3.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Lesson Plan Design $250 0.0 3.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Instruconal Material Development $250 0.0 3.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Program Design Courses Standards Based Training $250 0.0 0.0 2.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 Program Evaluaon and Management $250 0.0 0.0 2.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 Curriculum Development $250 0.0 0.0 2.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 Review of Course Documentaon and Porolios (Training Delivery Level) $200 4.8 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Review of Course Documentaon and Porolios (Instruconal Design Level) $200 0.0 4.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 Review of Course Documentaon and Porolios (Program Design Level) $150 0.0 0.0 2.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 Review of Final Capstone Project $150 0.0 0.0 2.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 Total Fees/Income 71.1 98.8 122.9 131.3 131.3 115.7 98.4 85.8 85.8 85.8 Table 5.4. Operating revenue vs. cost analysis of transit trainer and mentor certification program— low participation estimate. (continued on next page)

76 A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors Costs (Constant $ in Thousands) Note: These are recurring operang costs, both fixed and variable. There are other one me startup costs that will have to be invested and recovered over me or covered through other possible sources. Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Fixed Costs (Overall) Updates for Task Analysis, Competency Model and Program Review (ongoing and major update every 5 yrs, incl. SME travel) 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Markeng to Agencies / ROI Analysis 10.0 10.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Public Website Maintenance 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Legal Costs (incl. insurance) 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 Credenal Management System License and Admin 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 Total Fixed Costs 47.5 47.5 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 Variable Costs Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Training Delivery Courses Mentoring Course (In Person) $1,500 28.5 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 Oral and Wrien Communicaon $1,000 3.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Adult Learning $1,000 3.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Delivering Instrucon $1,000 3.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Instruconal Design Courses Assessment and Process Analysis $1,000 0.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Instruconal Technology $1,000 0.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Lesson Plan Design $1,000 0.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Instruconal Material Development $1,000 0.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Program Design Courses Standards Based Training $1,000 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Program Evaluaon and Management $1,000 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Curriculum Development $1,000 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Review of Course Documentaon and Por€olios (Training Delivery Level) ($25/person/course) $25 2.4 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Review of Course Documentaon and Por€olios (Instruconal Design Level) ($25/person/course) $25 0.0 2.2 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Review of Course Documentaon and Por€olios (Program Design Level) ($25/person/course) $25 0.0 0.0 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 Review of Capstone Projects $100 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 Total Variable Costs 39.9 63.2 84.5 89.5 89.5 78.1 63.9 55.0 55.0 55.0 Total Costs 87.4 110.7 124.5 129.5 129.5 118.1 103.9 95.0 95.0 95.0 Annual Cost Excess/Shortage 16.3 11.9 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.4 5.5 9.2 9.2 9.2 Cumulave Reserve/Loss 16.3 28.2 29.8 28.0 26.2 28.6 34.1 43.3 52.5 61.7 Table 5.4. (Continued).

Business Plan 77 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Projected Parcipaon Parcipang Trainers (from Year 1 populaon) 36 36 36 36 36 0 0 0 0 0 Parcipang Trainers (from New Hires each year) 0 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 Parcipang Mentors 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 Fees/Income (Constant $ in Thousands) Cerficaon System Registraon (Charged at beginning to parcipang instructors) $100 3.6 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Training Delivery Courses Mentoring Course (In Person) $260 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 77.0 Oral and Wrien Communicaon $250 5.4 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 Adult Learning $250 5.4 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 Delivering Instrucon $250 5.4 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 Instruconal Design Courses Assessment and Process Analysis $250 0.0 4.9 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Instruconal Technology $250 0.0 4.9 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Lesson Plan Design $250 0.0 4.9 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Instruconal Material Development $250 0.0 4.9 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Program Design Courses Standards Based Training $250 0.0 0.0 3.8 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 Program Evaluaon and Management $250 0.0 0.0 3.8 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 Curriculum Development $250 0.0 0.0 3.8 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 Review of Course Documentaon and Porolios (Training Delivery Level) $200 7.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Review of Course Documentaon and Porolios (Instruconal Design Level) $200 0.0 6.5 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Review of Course Documentaon and Porolios (Program Design Level) $150 0.0 0.0 3.8 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 Review of Final Capstone Project $150 0.0 0.0 3.8 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 Total Fees/Income 100.4 141.9 178.1 190.7 190.7 167.3 141.3 122.4 122.4 122.4 Table 5.5. Operating revenue vs. cost analysis of transit trainer and mentor certification program— medium participation estimate/adjusted pricing. (continued on next page)

78 A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors Table 5.5. (Continued). Costs (Constant $ in Thousands) Note: These are recurring operang costs, both fixed and variable. There are other one me startup costs that will have to be invested and recovered over me or covered through other possible sources. Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Fixed Costs (Overall) Updates for Task Analysis, Competency Model and Program Review (ongoing and major update every 5 yrs, incl. SME travel) 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Markeng to Agencies / ROI Analysis 10.0 10.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Public Website Maintenance 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Legal Costs (incl. insurance) 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 Credenal Management System License and Admin 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 Total Fixed Costs 47.5 47.5 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 Variable Costs Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Training Delivery Courses Mentoring Course (In Person) $1,500 37.5 40.5 40.5 40.5 40.5 40.5 40.5 40.5 40.5 40.5 Oral and Wrien Communicaon $1,000 5.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Adult Learning $1,000 5.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Delivering Instrucon $1,000 5.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Instruconal Design Courses Assessment and Process Analysis $1,000 0.0 4.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Instruconal Technology $1,000 0.0 4.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Lesson Plan Design $1,000 0.0 4.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Instruconal Material Development $1,000 0.0 4.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Program Design Courses Standards Based Training $1,000 0.0 0.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Program Evaluaon and Management $1,000 0.0 0.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Curriculum Development $1,000 0.0 0.0 4.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Review of Course Documentaon and Por€olios (Training Delivery Level) ($25/person/course) $25 3.6 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Review of Course Documentaon and Por€olios (Instruconal Design Level) ($25/person/course) $25 0.0 3.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Review of Course Documentaon and Por€olios (Program Design Level) ($25/person/course) $25 0.0 0.0 1.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 Review of Capstone Projects $100 0.0 0.0 2.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 Total Variable Costs 56.1 89.7 120.3 129.3 129.3 110.7 91.4 78.0 78.0 78.0 Total Costs 103.6 137.2 160.3 169.3 169.3 150.7 131.4 118.0 118.0 118.0 Annual Cost Excess/Shortage 3.2 4.6 17.8 21.4 21.4 16.6 9.9 4.4 4.4 4.4 Cumulave Reserve/Loss 3.2 1.4 19.2 40.6 62.0 78.6 88.5 93.0 97.4 101.8

Business Plan 79 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Projected Parcipaon Parcipang Trainers (from Year 1 populaon) 48 48 48 48 48 0 0 0 0 0 Parcipang Trainers (from New Hires each year) 0 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 Parcipang Mentors 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 270 Fees/Income (Constant $ in Thousands) Cerficaon System Registraon (Charged at beginning to parcipang instructors) $100 4.8 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Training Delivery Courses Mentoring Course (In Person) $250 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5 67.5 Oral and Wri en Communicaon $250 7.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Adult Learning $250 7.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Delivering Instrucon $250 7.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Instruconal Design Courses Assessment and Process Analysis $250 0.0 6.5 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Instruconal Technology $250 0.0 6.5 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Lesson Plan Design $250 0.0 6.5 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Instruconal Material Development $250 0.0 6.5 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Program Design Courses Standards Based Training $250 0.0 0.0 5.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Program Evaluaon and Management $250 0.0 0.0 5.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Curriculum Development $250 0.0 0.0 5.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Review of Course Documentaon and Porolios (Training Delivery Level) $200 9.6 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 Review of Course Documentaon and Porolios (Instruconal Design Level) $200 0.0 8.6 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 Review of Course Documentaon and Porolios (Program Design Level) $150 0.0 0.0 5.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Review of Final Capstone Project $150 0.0 0.0 5.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Total Fees/Income 98.7 154.1 202.3 219.1 219.1 187.9 153.3 128.1 128.1 128.1 Table 5.6. Operating revenue vs. cost analysis of transit trainer and mentor certification program— break even participation level. (continued on next page)

80 A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors Costs (Constant $ in Thousands) Note: These are recurring operang costs, both fixed and variable. There are other one me startup costs that will have to be invested and recovered over me or covered through other possible sources. Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Fixed Costs (Overall) Updates for Task Analysis, Competency Model and Program Review (ongoing and major update every 5 yrs, incl. SME travel) 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Markeng to Agencies / ROI Analysis 10.0 10.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Public Website Maintenance 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Legal Costs (incl. insurance) 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 Credenal Management System License and Admin 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 Total Fixed Costs 47.5 47.5 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 Variable Costs Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Training Delivery Courses Mentoring Course (In Person) $1,500 34.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 Oral and Wrien Communicaon $1,000 6.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Adult Learning $1,000 6.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Delivering Instrucon $1,000 6.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Instruconal Design Courses Assessment and Process Analysis $1,000 0.0 6.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Instruconal Technology $1,000 0.0 6.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Lesson Plan Design $1,000 0.0 6.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Instruconal Material Development $1,000 0.0 6.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Program Design Courses Standards Based Training $1,000 0.0 0.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Program Evaluaon and Management $1,000 0.0 0.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Curriculum Development $1,000 0.0 0.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Review of Course Documentaon and Porolios (Training Delivery Level) $25 4.8 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 Review of Course Documentaon and Porolios (Instruconal Design Level) $25 0.0 4.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 Review of Course Documentaon and Porolios (Program Design Level) $25 0.0 0.0 2.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 Review of Capstone Projects $100 0.0 0.0 3.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 2.2 2.2 2.2 Total Variable Costs 57.3 103.8 139.6 149.5 149.5 126.7 102.4 84.5 84.5 84.5 Total Costs 104.8 151.3 179.6 189.5 189.5 166.7 142.4 124.5 124.5 124.5 Annual Cost Excess/Short age 6.1 2.7 22.7 29.6 29.6 21.2 11.0 3.6 3.6 3.6 Cumulave Reserve/Loss 6.1 3.4 19.4 49.0 78.6 99.8 110.7 114.4 118.0 121.6 Table 5.6. (Continued).

Business Plan 81 The numbers show that, if the “medium level” of participation can be achieved and the other participation assumptions hold valid, the program can be sustainably offered. However, the margins are always fairly small and the potential AO will always be in a somewhat precarious position where a small change in demand or costs will result in an operating loss. Even at a high level of participation, the projected cumulative reserve over 10 years is not likely to attract an organization to invest in the up-front development costs. An ongoing commitment of the industry and the steering committee will be necessary for the program to be implemented. Making the Business Case to Transit Organizations— Impact and Potential ROI of Instructor Training and Certification Understanding that agencies will need to make significant investments to support the program in terms of paying for registration fees and allowing instructors the time needed away from work to complete the program, it is essential that agency managers value the outcome. When it comes to measuring the impact and ROI of an instructor training, development, and certification program, one question becomes essential: How much does a transit agency benefit from technical training and how is that benefit enhanced by skilled instructors? Research shows that in both cases investment in technical training pays dividends. Transit Technical Training Makes a Difference A study aimed specifically at transit calculated significant gains regarding ROI from technical workforce training (Transportation Learning Center 2010b). Research conducted at the Capital District Transportation Authority (CDTA), Albany, NY, showed that as a result of training provided under a special program: • Average test scores improved by 43 percent. • Some test scores improved by 70 percent. • Miles between breakdowns improved by 18 percent. • Bus spare ratio fell from 20 percent to 13 percent. • More maintenance repair work stayed in-house. • Work culture among technicians also improved. In total, 23 classes developed in-house by CDTA instructors were provided to 202 students over a one year period. The training addressed both basic and advanced technology subjects including engines, transmissions, hydraulics, and preventive maintenance. The results were impressive. A true measure of an agency’s maintenance program is to keep vehicle defects to a minimum. Defects left unattended lead to breakdowns, passenger interruptions, and safety concerns. Fortunately for the effort to measure ROI at CDTA, the agency has an annual fleet inspection 10 year cumulative reserve/(loss) Long-term annual reserve/(loss) (Year 8 and later) Low Participation -$61,700 -$9,200 Medium Participation $101,800 $4,400 High Participation $238,100 $15,100 Table 5.7. Operating surpluses or losses.

82 A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors conducted by an independent contractor to measure overall maintenance efficiency. One activity is to inspect a percentage of the bus fleet on an annual basis and itemize the number of defects found. After conducting the extra training, the average number of per-bus defects at CDTA fell from 8.4 to 5.9 percent, an impressive 30 percent improvement. When the defect reduction was compared to specific training classes given through the program, the results were even more impressive. Regarding engine defects for example, where five training classes were provided, the number of defects in this critical category fell 44 percent. The training at CDTA also led to the reduction of outsourcing, a practice where vendors perform certain repair and maintenance work because the agency’s own technicians lack the required technical knowl- edge and ability. The practice brings with it many disadvantages. The primary disadvantage is that extensive outsourcing makes the agency dependent on others to do much of their work. As a result, costs and scheduling cannot be controlled. Such was the case with CDTA: lack of skills was making the agency dependent on others to do much of the critical engine and transmission work. Following training in these specific areas, however, the agency was able to bring 50 percent of this work back in-house and make the repairs themselves. Based on interviews with 20 main- tenance personnel, the ability to perform work in-house combined with the enhanced skills made possible by the training has re-energized the workforce, improved working relations, and estab- lished a “can do” attitude throughout the maintenance department. Training ROI in Pennsylvania The transit ROI study also included the benefits derived from over 11,000 maintenance training opportunities provided to various transit agencies in Pennsylvania. In this example, results of the technical training show a return of five to 12 times the training investment. The SEPTA, the largest agency participating in the training program, demonstrated several quantifiable gains derived through the training. In the area of mean distance between failures (MDBF), an indication of in-service vehicle reliability, the research compared SEPTA’s bus garages that did not receive any preventive maintenance (PM) training to those garages that did receive training. Following PM training where technicians were taught to identify and repair defects before they result in a mechanical failure, MDBF showed improvements each month with up to 1,797 more miles traveled between failures, or 39 percent improvement in miles driven between failures. This translates to fewer passengers being inconvenienced by buses that fail in service, thereby improv- ing the agency’s performance and public image. At a smaller transit agency in Pennsylvania where technicians lacked essential electrical skills, specialized training led to a sharp reduction in charging system related failures. Prior to taking these classes, many technicians were replacing perfectly good batteries because of their inability to properly diagnose charging system faults. Following the training, battery costs were reduced 26 percent. Another key measurement in bus maintenance is the ratio between scheduled maintenance events where activities are accomplished as planned service events, and unscheduled maintenance where repair jobs are usually the result of breakdowns. It is more advantageous to accomplish repairs while the vehicle is receiving scheduled maintenance than having to chase unscheduled repairs where vehicle downtime is not anticipated. Following the training provided to SEPTA technicians, unscheduled maintenance activities fell from 51 percent to 42 percent of the total maintenance activities. The reduction of unscheduled maintenance is a strong indicator of improved equipment performance, which generates cost savings from not having so many dis- ruptive and costly breakdowns and unscheduled overtime. The time and effort spent on BMT at all skill levels also produced impressive improvements in parts and labor cost reduction in many of SEPTA’s major maintenance/repair categories.

Business Plan 83 Figure 5.1 showcases an example of such savings. A PM job that once cost $114 in labor and materials now cost only $82 after four years of training because of improved skill levels, a result of improved diagnostic abilities and an overall reduction in the time needed to make repairs. SEPTA has saved a total of $8,194,000 on bus PM jobs due to its training initiatives. A broader cost/benefit analysis shows that SEPTA’s training investment has produced impressive financial gains. Figure 5.2 summarizes the total savings from reduced labor time and materials needed to accomplish maintenance jobs at SEPTA throughout the training period. As illustrated in Figure 5.2, annual savings in all bus maintenance/repair categories rose rapidly from $3.6 million in 2002 (the first year of Keystone) to $11 million in 2005. Understanding that calculating the effect of training is not an exact science, the study estimated that SEPTA’s investment of $2,625,127 to train its bus maintenance workforce over a four-year period led to a combined cost savings of between $10 million and $22 million. The savings in vehicle maintenance, repair, and bus capital costs provides solid evidence that investment in training does provide financial benefits. Instructor Training and Development Makes a Difference: Research Evidence It’s commonly understood that highly proficient teachers and instructors do make a difference when it comes to student achievement. Unfortunately, there is no known ROI study that quantifies instructor effectiveness in a transit maintenance environment. However, a study conducted by the ROI Institute, Inc. regarding the impact of instructor development on student retention and corresponding ROI in an automotive training environ- ment produced impressive findings (Imagine America Foundation 2010). The research was conducted at a campus of UTI, a provider of technical training for students seeking careers as automotive, marine and heavy-duty truck technicians. UTI is featured in the Best Practices chapter of this project. Figure 5.1. Average labor & parts cost and annual savings—SEPTA bus PM jobs.

84 A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors The ROI study focused on measuring the impact of a comprehensive faculty development program provided to UTI by the Center for Excellence in Education (CEE), a career college employee development and performance improvement initiative. Conclusions from the study found that the CEE program had a positive effect on UTI instructors and the students they taught. Seventy-nine percent of the instructors reported their teaching performance had been enhanced as a result of the program, improving their ability to: • Incorporate multiple teaching styles to better suit a diverse class; • Develop more ways to make presentations; • Involve students in classroom teaching to help learners be more active; and • Increase listening skills to hear students’ concerns. After isolating the effects of the program, converting the measures to monetary value, and identifying the fully loaded costs, the result was a positive ROI of 517 percent for UTI. Enhanced instructor skills contributed to an improvement in student retention and the number of additional courses taken by the students because of the higher quality instruction they received. Additionally, there were notable intangible benefits of the program, including job satisfaction, faculty career development, and student satisfaction. In addition to the UTI study, there is anecdotal evidence from several technicians whose careers have benefitted from instructors that made a difference. Michele Winn, a woman working as an automotive technician, is one example. She credits the instructors at a technical school that she attended for helping her to achieve a perfect 4.0 grade average and land a well-paying and Total Labor and Parts Savings in Bus Maintenance/Repair Categories Rose Rapidly since the Start of Keystone Training $0 $2,000,000 $4,000,000 $6,000,000 $8,000,000 $10,000,000 $12,000,000 Fiscal Years A nn ua l S av in gs Accident $187,000 $163,000 $187,000 $329,000 Capitalization (Overhaul) $2,461,000 $4,566,000 $2,628,000 $2,320,000 Inspection Repairs $0 $0 $0 $3,140,000 Operator Report $32,000 $68,000 $142,000 $138,000 Overhaul $0 $184,000 $356,000 $341,000 Preventive Maintenance $827,000 $1,613,000 $2,615,000 $3,139,000 Running Repairs $0 $326,000 $586,000 $1,021,000 Service Failure $5,000 $0 $197,000 $540,000 Vandalism $35,000 $16,000 $34,000 $64,000 Warranty $32,000 $0 $3,000 $64,000 FY02 07/01-06/02 FY03 07/02-06/03 FY04 07/03-06/04 FY05 07/04-06/05 $3,579,000 $6,748,000$6,936,000 $11,096,000 Figure 5.2. Total labor and parts savings—SEPTA maintenance jobs.

Business Plan 85 satisfying job. The instructors at this particular technical school provided just enough classroom instruction to prepare students for intensive hands-on education, combining theory and practice in a way that engaged students and prepared them for real-world job experiences. In the article, “The Value of the Maintenance Instructor” (Chamberlin 2010), an aircraft mechanic reflects back on the instructors that made a difference in his career. Over the years Chamberlin observed many instructors in action. As he notes, most were just average, a few were really good, and some had no business being in the profession. The reason he gives for the high number of poor technical instructors is that rarely are there any requirements for them to have received formal training in teaching skills. Chamberlin goes on to contrast the many investments being made in training technologies such as e-learning with the lack of investment being made with regard to instructor training and preparation. As he notes, the training aids are only valuable tools when used correctly by a skilled instructor. Chamberlin asks: “What’s really important in your training program? Is it having the latest technological advances in training aids? Or is it selecting good instructors and providing them with the tools they need to accomplish their jobs?” Hopefully, transit agencies can have both. Direct evidence pointing to the benefits offered by quality instructors in more traditional teaching settings is plentiful. In the book, Teacher Quality: Understanding the Effectiveness of Teacher Attributes, by Jennifer King Rice, the author proves that teacher quality does in fact matter (Rice 2003).The book contends that the teacher is the most important school-related factor influencing student achievement. The publication lends credibility to best practices findings that experience has a positive effect on teacher effectiveness, especially when it comes to “learn-by- doing” instruction. The research also validates this effort in this project to certify transit main- tenance instructors because it suggests that teachers who are certified have an increased impact on student achievement. The study goes on to state that teaching is a complex activity influenced by many elements of teacher quality. The research suggests that investing in teachers can make a difference in student achievement. In a conventional school setting it is estimated that the difference between having a good teacher and a bad one can exceed one grade-level equivalent in annual achievement growth. The book points to several studies that argue that the single most important factor affecting student achievement is the teacher, and the effects of teachers on student achievement are both additive and cumulative. Further, the studies contend that lower-achieving students are the most likely to benefit from increases in teacher effectiveness. This is especially important in today’s transit environment where many transit technicians may have been subjected to poor quality training in the past. A study conducted by the Australian Council for Educational Research Annual Conference, Building Teacher Quality (Hattie 2003), also provides a direct correlation between teacher quality and student accomplishment. It shows that the students themselves account for about 50 percent of the variance of achievement. It’s what students bring to the table that predicts achieve- ment more than any other single variable. Of the remaining 50 percent, teachers account for 30 percent of the variance with schools, principals, and peer effects accounting for the remainder. The study identified five major characteristics of excellent teachers as those with the ability to: • Identify essential representations of their subject, • Guide learning through classroom interactions, • Monitor learning and provide feedback, • Attend to affective attributes, and • Influence student outcomes.

86 A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors Taken together, the sources provided here and elsewhere conclude that quality teachers are a critical determinant of student achievement. There is clear evidence to suggest that technicians are in a better position to perform their jobs when provided with effective instructors. Certification Improves Instructor Employment Opportunities While research clearly shows that providing instructors with enhanced teaching skills contributes significantly to student achievement, there is also evidence that instructors themselves benefit from attaining certifications. In the article, “Does Your Resume Need New Acronyms?”, the author strongly indicates that in today’s business climate, anything that differentiates job candidates from the crowd is critical to building a substantial career (Zupek 2009). Certifications show employers that job candidates are dedicated and committed to a particular profession and they are credible and knowledgeable about current trends and best practices in their field. The article indicates that certifications are especially beneficial when coupled with an appropriate number of years of experience in a given field of work. A scan of institutions that offer instructor and teacher certifications points to several other benefits: • Certification ensures that instructors are trained to consistent skill levels. • Certified people are more employable; hiring managers believe certified individuals are more productive than their non-certified counterparts. • Certificated people are typically more productive. • Certification reduces downtime because staff members have the skills needed to cope with issues as they arise. • Gaining certifications typically results in increased salaries. • Certification ensures that knowledge has been retained. • Certification results in lower staff turnover. The National Training and Certification Program seeks to improve and verify instructor skills with the intent of not only improving the quality of training delivery to students to make them more proficient, but to elevate the position of maintenance instructor within the transit community. Examples provided in other occupations indicate that these benefits can be achieved for transit maintenance technicians and instructors. Recommended Procurement Language At the interim meeting, the panel directed the Project Team to recommend language for transit agencies to include in future vehicle procurement contracts specifying vendor instructor qualifications. APTA’s Standard Bus Procurement Guidelines document already contains a section on training. It is proposed that the relevant section be changed to read: The Contractor shall have at least one qualified instructor certified through the National Training ICP who shall be available at the Agency’s property for [insert number] calendar days between the hours of [insert starting time] and [insert closing time] per month for [insert number] months prior to, and [insert number] months after, acceptance of the first vehicle. Instructor(s) shall conduct schools and advise the personnel of the Agency on the proper operation and maintenance of the equipment. The Contractor also shall supplement classroom instruction with hands-on training and provide visual and other teaching aids (such as manuals, slide presentations, literature and other teaching aids) designed to engage students for use by the Agency’s own training staff and which shall become the property of the Agency.

Next: Chapter 6 - Conclusion »
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TRB’s Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Report 178: A National Training and Certification Program for Transit Vehicle Maintenance Instructors provides a proposed national program structure and plan for training and certifying transit bus and rail maintenance instructors. The report also provides best practices used in the public and private sectors to prepare and certify technical instructors, as well as the attributes and instructional delivery methods found most effective for maintenance instructors.

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