Input Guidelines for Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator Model, Volume 3: Final Report (2015)

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Table 7.8 Selected VTRIS Classification Locations by State .............................. 7-11 Table 7.9 Sample State-Level Data Produced from 2012 VTRIS ...................... 7-12 Table 7.10 HPMS Vehicle Type VMT Share for Base Year .................................. 7-13 Table 7.11 Sample State-Level Data Produced from 2011 Highway Statistics ................................................................................. 7-15 Table 7.12 Comparison of Aggregated and Disaggregated ITS Speeds............ 7-18 Table 7.13 BPR Coefficients Used in Jacksonville Model .................................... 7-27 Table 7.14 NHTS Vehicle Types .............................................................................. 7-29 Table 7.15 Sample Mileage Accumulation Estimates .......................................... 7-30 Table 7.16 Profile of Carriers by Type from MCMIS Database .......................... 7-33 Table 7.17 Registered Trucks by State .................................................................... 7-34 Table 7.18 Low-Speed Travel Fractions ................................................................. 7-46 Table 7.19 Composite Emissions (g/mi), VOC and NOx .................................... 7-48 Table 7.20 Composite Emissions (g/mi), CO2e, and PM2.5 ................................. 7-48 Table A.1 Example Source Type (Vehicle) Type Population Input ................... A-2 Table A.2 Example Region VMT by Vehicle Class Input .................................... A-4 Table A.3 Example Road Type Distribution Input............................................... A-7 Table A.4 Example Average Speed Distribution Input ....................................... A-8 Table A.5 IM Program Inputs ............................................................................... A-18 Table A.6 Fuel Supply ............................................................................................ A-19 iv

List of Figures Figure 6.1 MOVES Embedded Road Type Distributions versus Scenario 5 ...... 6-7 Figure 6.2 Percent Change in Emissions by Road Grade ...................................... 6-9 Figure 6.3 Percent Change in Emissions by Road Grade ...................................... 6-9 Figure 6.4 VMT Fractions by Scenario for Source Type Shifts ........................... 6-21 Figure 6.5 Example of Hour Distribution Shift .................................................... 6-22 Figure 7.1 Sample On-Line VTRIS Report .............................................................. 7-6 Figure 7.2 ITS Coverage in Atlanta ........................................................................ 7-16 Figure 7.3 Apparent Single Link Represented by Two Records for Each Direction......................................................................................... 7-21 Figure 7.4 Dual Line Coded Links Represented by a Record for Each Direction......................................................................................... 7-22 Figure 7.5 Overlay Result Example ........................................................................ 7-23 Figure 7.6 Example of Spurious Overlay .............................................................. 7-24 Figure 7.7 ARC Model Volume-Delay Factors ..................................................... 7-28 Figure 7.8 Relative Emissions by Speed ................................................................ 7-38 Figure 7.9 Relative Emissions by Speed ................................................................ 7-39 Figure 7.10 Speed Distribution – Atlanta Freeways .............................................. 7-40 Figure 7.11 Speed Distribution – Atlanta Freeways .............................................. 7-40 Figure 7.12 Speed Distribution – Atlanta Freeways .............................................. 7-41 Figure 7.13 Speed Distribution – Jacksonville Freeways ...................................... 7-41 Figure 7.14 Speed Distribution – Jacksonville Freeways ...................................... 7-42 Figure 7.15 Speed Distribution – Jacksonville Freeways ...................................... 7-42 Figure 7.16 Average Speed – Jacksonville Freeways ............................................. 7-43 Figure 7.17 Average Speed – Atlanta Freeways ..................................................... 7-44 Figure 7.18 Average Speed – Jacksonville Arterials .............................................. 7-44 Figure 7.19 Average Speed – Atlanta Arterials ...................................................... 7-45 Figure A.1 Status of Agencies Using MOVES and Developing MOVES Inputs ....................................................................................... A-22 v

1.0 Introduction This document is the Final Report for NCHRP Project 25-38, Input Guidelines for Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator Model (MOVES). The other major product of this research is a resource document, titled Developing Inputs for the Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator Model: Practitioners’ Handbook, that provides information for practitioners on how to develop local inputs for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s MOVES model. Four tools, along with supporting documentation (MOVES Tool Documentation), were also developed to assist MOVES users in developing specific inputs. The Practitioners’ Handbook is produced in two volumes: • Volume 1 – Regional-Level Inputs (for county-scale applications of MOVES); and • Volume 2 – Project-Level Inputs (for project-scale applications of MOVES). This Final Report documents the research process for developing the Practitioners’ Handbook and tools, and provides additional documentation not included in the handbook. The objective of NCHRP Project 25-38 is to produce guidelines for transportation practitioners on methods, procedures, and datasets needed to develop and obtain transportation-related regional- and project-level inputs for using MOVES to estimate emissions of criteria pollutants, air toxics, and greenhouse gases. The guidelines are intended for all practitioners at state departments of transportation (DOT), metropolitan planning organizations (MPO), and other air quality agencies that are addressing transportation air quality analyses at the regional or project level. MOVES is the required on-road transportation emissions model for regulatory analysis purposes in the United States outside of California, and is the recommended model for nonregulatory purposes. The project was undertaken over a two and one-half-year timeframe, from February 2012 through July 2014. The project consisted of a literature review; a survey of MOVES users at state and regional agencies; a sensitivity analysis of MOVES outputs to various inputs; investigation of datasets that could be used for MOVES input development; and the development of the Practitioners’ Handbook. The document includes detailed examples for each input and is accompanied by tools to assist users in developing some inputs. The research focused on the development of inputs for MOVES2010a (and version 2010b, which contained minor updates). The project was completed just as MOVES2014 was being released by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Information is included in the document about important ways in which MOVES2014 input requirements may differ from MOVES2010 requirements, and about updates to the “default” data embedded in MOVES. However, MOVES2014 does not contain major changes in input requirements compared to 1-1

MOVES2010, and the information in the Practitioners’ Handbook should continue to be relevant to MOVES2014. EPA has published guidance on the use of MOVES for regulatory purposes, including State Implementation Plan (SIP) inventory development, regional conformity analysis, and hotspot analysis, as well as nonregulatory purposes, including greenhouse gas (GHG) analysis. The Practitioners’ Handbook cites any recommended input data sources or methods contained in those guidance documents. However, the Practitioners’ Handbook also identifies other potential data sources and processing options, and includes some examples illustrating these options. While these other data sources may be appropriate for regulatory use, inclusion in the Practitioners’ Handbook does not imply endorsement for such purposes. EPA, through the MPO or statewide interagency process, will need to approve any data or methods when MOVES is used for regulatory purposes, and MOVES practitioners should ensure they follow standard requirements for consulting with EPA and other agencies in such situations. The remaining sections of this report include: • A task-by-task overview of the project work approach (Section 2.0); • An overview of the literature review (Section 3.0); • An overview of the method and findings for a survey of practitioners (Section 4.0); • A description of the Practitioners’ Handbook and its development process (Section 5.0); • Findings of a sensitivity analysis conducted on various MOVES inputs (Section 6.0); • Documentation of data analysis conducted to support the Practitioners’ Handbook, including sources evaluated, analysis methods, and key findings (Section 7.0); • Documentation of the data processing tools developed (Section 8.0); and • Additional research and data collection needs to support MOVES input development (Section 9.0). Appendices to the report include: • Detailed findings of the literature review by input (Appendix A); • An annotated bibliography (Appendix B); • Detailed survey responses (Appendix C); and • The survey instrument (Appendix D). In the course of this research the project team identified a number of places were gaps in existing data limit the extent to which the full capabilities of the MOVES model can be utilized. In some cases, these gaps could be addressed through 1-2

expansion of existing data collection programs, using widely available technologies. In other cases, additional research may be needed to demonstrate new/emerging data collection methods and how they could be adopted to support the use of MOVES. Opportunities for improved data collection and research are shown in Table 1.1. Table 1.1 Data Collection and Research Opportunities to Support MOVES Input Development Data or Research Item Opportunity Value Data Collection Classified traffic data collection for VMT- based inputs Develop more robust systems of permanent classification counters, and improve associated reporting of these data. Support the development of more refined MOVES VMT, source type population, and temporal adjustment inputs. Speed data and traffic networks Make traffic management center networks consistent with (or crosswalked to) travel demand model networks. Acquire speed distributions built from disaggregate data, rather than just average speeds by link and time period. Allow speeds from private sources to be matched with volume information. Support more robust speed distributions representing all vehicles at all times of day. Heavy-duty vehicle fleets and activity Acquire data on the fraction of truck traffic that is from locally registered versus out-of-area vehicles, the expected “home” locations of these vehicles (where registered), and the characteristics of these vehicles. License plate surveys or administrative sources may be considered. Improve characterization of heavy-duty fleet and emissions. Off-network data Collect data on vehicle fleets and activity at different facilities, including ports, intermodal terminals, transit centers, truck stops, and park- and-ride lots. Identify representative character- istics for off-network facilities such as speed profiles and extended idle time, or illustrate ranges in these parameters for different types of facilities. Research and Methodology Development Speed data by source type Conduct research into whether emerging speed collection methods (such as video or Bluetooth) could link speeds with vehicle type information. Facilitate development of source type-specific speed distributions. Speed prediction methods Test calibration of model speed distributions against an overall distribution of observed speeds on a network. Improve model speed estimation to support forecast year speed distributions. Traffic classification methods Test use of methods such as video, radar, and lidar to combine length-based and axle-based data collection to refine vehicle classifications. Improve data on observed VMT by vehicle type and source type distributions. Truck short- versus long-haul populations Examine broader use of truck registration data to infer use patterns. Develop better, state-specific estimates of truck short- versus long-haul populations. 1-3