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Estimating Bicycling and Walking for Planning and Project Development: A Guidebook (2014)

Chapter: Appendix A - Seattle Tour-Generation and Mode-Choice Models

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Page 119
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A - Seattle Tour-Generation and Mode-Choice Models ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2014. Estimating Bicycling and Walking for Planning and Project Development: A Guidebook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22330.
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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A - Seattle Tour-Generation and Mode-Choice Models ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2014. Estimating Bicycling and Walking for Planning and Project Development: A Guidebook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22330.
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Page 120
Page 121
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A - Seattle Tour-Generation and Mode-Choice Models ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2014. Estimating Bicycling and Walking for Planning and Project Development: A Guidebook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22330.
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Page 121
Page 122
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A - Seattle Tour-Generation and Mode-Choice Models ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2014. Estimating Bicycling and Walking for Planning and Project Development: A Guidebook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22330.
×
Page 122
Page 123
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A - Seattle Tour-Generation and Mode-Choice Models ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2014. Estimating Bicycling and Walking for Planning and Project Development: A Guidebook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22330.
×
Page 123
Page 124
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A - Seattle Tour-Generation and Mode-Choice Models ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2014. Estimating Bicycling and Walking for Planning and Project Development: A Guidebook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22330.
×
Page 124
Page 125
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A - Seattle Tour-Generation and Mode-Choice Models ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2014. Estimating Bicycling and Walking for Planning and Project Development: A Guidebook. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22330.
×
Page 125

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119 A P P E N D I X A Seattle Tour-Generation and Mode-Choice Models7 7 Bradley, Mark and John Bowman. “Tests of variables explaining propensity for walk and bike trips in the Puget Sound region.” Technical Memo for NCHRP Project 8-78 (September 2013). Home based Work based Observaons 44066 7686 Final log (L) 65530.8 3177.3 Rho squared (0) 0.451 0.847 Rho squared (const) 0.236 0.018 No (more) tours Coeff T stat Coeff T stat N LowInc low income household 0.449 7.3 0.2250 0.6 N HighInc high income household 0.0743 2.6 0.2394 3.2 N Male Male 0.0834 3.4 N AgeUn30 age under 30 0.42 7.8 0.3345 1.9 N AgeOv50 age over 50 0.0414 1.2 N NoCars no car household 0.552 6.1 0.504 1.2 N CarComp car compeon household 0.138 3.8 N MixUse4 Buffer 1 mix use entropy measure 0.0803 1.2 0.757 3.5 N IntDens buffer1 net intersecon density .00367 1.4 N AvgRise Buffer 2 fracon average rise 6.18 2.8 N BikePa1 Buffer2 Class 1 bike path fracon 0.349 1.6 1.821 2.0 N BikePa2 Buffer2 Class 2 bike lane fracon 1.387 2.5 N DisTrans origin distance to transit stop 0.0669 3.9 N2 SecondT constant second tour 2.56 96.0 0.027 0.2 N3 ThirdT constant third tour 3.39 83.5 0.027 0.1 N4 FourthT constant fourth tour 3.78 54.1 5.0 Const Complex (mul stop) tour Coeff T stat Coeff T stat C CompLogs origin composite logsum 0.0347 2.9 C MixUse4 origin mix use entropy measure 0.201 3.6 .182 0.4 C FTW full me worker 0.349 6.9 C PTW part me worker 0.251 4.4 0.965 1.9 C RETI Rered 0.229 3.9 C STUD Student 0.425 7.2 Table A-1. Tour-generation/complexity model estimation results. (continued on next page)

120 Escort tour Coeff T stat Coeff T stat E Const Constant 2.46 13.5 7.17 19.9 E Buffer2 Buffer2 households + grade school Students (if HH has school age kids) 0.0804 4.5 E AggLogs Escort tour aggregate logsum 0.103 6.1 EC Complex Complex tour interacon constant 0.066 0.5 0.595 1.0 E FTW Full me worker 1.48 22.9 E PTW Part me worker 0.16 2.1 E RET Rered 0.739 8.6 E DAS High school/Univ.student 0.47 4.1 E CHI Child age 5 15 1.28 13.5 E KidsInH Kids in the household 2.01 37.9 Personal business tour Coeff T stat Coeff T stat P Const Constant 0.715 3.1 5.57 22.1 P Buffer2 Buffer2 service + medical employ. 0.0687 4.5 P AggLogs Pers. bus. tour aggregate logsum 0.0151 0.7 PC Complex Complex tour interacon constant 0.798 6.0 1.649 3.5 P FTW Full me worker 1.08 16.0 P PTW Part me worker 0.0792 0.9 P RET Rered 0.252 3.4 P DAS High school/Univ.student 0.129 1.1 P CHI Child age 5 15 1.32 11.9 P KidsInH Kids in the household 0.36 6.0 Work tour Coeff T stat Coeff T stat W Const Constant 2.66 21.5 4.91 20.8 W Buffer2 Buffer2 total employment 0.0724 6.6 WC Complex Complex tour interacon constant 0.0687 0.5 0.994 2.5 W FTW Full me worker 3.02 30.4 W PTW Part me worker 3.03 28.1 W RET rered 0.798 5.3 W DAS High school/Univ.student 1.75 12.2 W CHI Child age 5 15 4.13 5.8 W KidsInH Kids in the household 0.231 6 School tour Coeff T stat Coeff T stat S Const Constant 3.58 17.2 20.0 Const S Buffer2 Buffer2 relevant school enrolment 0.0559 5.2 SC Complex Complex tour interacon constant 0.66 4.8 S FTW Full me worker 0.426 1.7 S PTW Part me worker 1.4 5.6 S RET Rered 1.23 3.3 S DAS High school/Univ.student 4.93 23.2 S CHI Child age 5 15 4.29 19.6 S KidsInH Kids in the household 0.347 3.9 Home based Work based Table A-1. (Continued).

121 Shopping tour Coeff T stat Coeff T stat H Const Constant 1.35 5.2 9.67 4.6 H Buffer2 Buffer2 retail employment 0.12 8.5 H AggLogs Shop tour aggregate logsum 0.0542 2.0 0.3735 1.9 HC Complex Complex tour interacon constant 0.458 3.4 1.241 2.7 H FTW Full me worker 1.11 16.0 H PTW Part me worker 0.0749 0.9 H RET Rered 0.486 6.1 H DAS High school/Univ.student 0.354 2.7 H CHI Child age 5 15 1.74 12.5 H KidsInH Kids in the household 0.336 5.5 Meal tour Coeff T stat Coeff T stat M Const Constant 2.31 14.0 5.31 12.4 M Buffer2 Buffer2 food service employment 0.0491 2.0 M AggLogs Meal tour aggregate logsum 0.144 5.3 0.141 3.0 MC Complex Complex tour interacon constant 0.809 5.7 2.58 6.1 M FTW Full me worker 0.635 6.9 M PTW Part me worker 0.0344 0.3 1.081 3.3 M RET Rered 0.24 2.3 M DAS High school/Univ.student 0.223 1.2 M CHI Child age 5 15 0.939 6.1 M KidsInH Kids in the household 0.0936 1.1 Recreaon tour Coeff T stat Coeff T stat R Const Constant 2.84 11.8 10.25 4.3 R Buffer2 Buffer2 households + service empl. 0.183 5.4 R AggLogs Recreaon tour aggregate logsum 0.0669 2.3 0.319 1.5 RC Complex Complex tour interacon constant 1.04 7.3 2.955 2.7 R FTW Full me worker 0.998 11.1 R PTW Part me worker 0.154 1.4 2.0 const R RET Rered 0.373 3.7 R DAS High school/Univ.student 0.247 1.7 R CHI Child age 5 15 0.684 4.8 R KidsInH Kids in the household 0.247 3.1 Home based Work based Table A-1. (Continued).

122 Model Home based Work Home based School Home based Recrea on Home based Other Work based Observaons 4509 1344 1531 2571 478 Final log (L) 2275.7 754.8 745.4 946.7 270.6 Rho squared (0) 0.636 0.595 0.649 0.734 0.592 Rho squared (const) 0.201 0.163 0.147 0.276 0.3 Walk mode Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat wk const 7.31 5.8 3.82 12.1 2.92 2.6 3.03 7.8 3.49 2.9 wk incu25 1.14 1.8 0.647 2 wk inc0100 0.546 2.3 0.42 2 0.256 1.4 wk male 0.337 1.8 0.32 1.6 wk ageu35 0.412 2.3 0.26 1.2 wk age050 0.486 3.1 wk buffer1 0.403 4.5 0.423 7.4 0.262 3 0.36 5.4 wk nclogsm 0.245 1.7 0.0922 0.9 0.699 6.3 wk wktowrk wk complex 1.45 6.7 2.21 6.4 1.33 5.5 1.3 7 1.61 4 wk omixu41 0.454 1 0.791 1.2 wk ohhddn1 0.0002 6 2.6 wk ointdn1 0.0043 0.7 0.0101 1.9 wk onosid1 1.04 2 0.769 2.4 1.12 2.9 1.6 2.1 wk oavris1 29.2 1.6 35.5 1.7 Bike mode Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat bi const 3.61 6.8 7.69 3.5 4.84 8.3 6 4.9 3.49 4.5 bi male 0.676 3.5 0.711 1.8 1.96 3.6 0.72 1.4 bi ageu35 1.38 2.9 bi age050 0.833 3.8 0.991 1.8 0.338 0.7 bi buffer2 0.22 1.5 bi nclogsm 0.289 1.3 bi bitowrk 2 (*) bi complex 1.08 5.5 2.18 2.9 0.628 1.1 1.59 2.1 2 (*) bi omixu42 bi ohhddn2 bi ointdn2 0.0087 9 0.0127 4.4 bi opathf2 2.4 1.4 3.15 1 bi oavris2 62.6 1.9 31.4 0.5 92.5 0.9 Table A-2. Seattle tour-based mode-choice model estimation results, using only tour origin information.

123 Transit mode Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat wt const 3.78 8.2 2.94 5.9 5.78 4.5 8.5 9 0.986 0.6 wt owdist 0.164 1 wt nclogsm 0.355 3.9 wt incu25 0.379 1.3 2.38 4.8 0.813 2.2 wt inc0100 1.81 2.5 wt male wt ageu35 1.25 1.4 wt age050 2.17 2.8 wt trtowrk 0.574 0.8 wt complex 0.781 7.4 0.314 1.3 0.693 1.5 0.361 1.3 0.677 0.8 wt omixu41 0.716 2.6 1.36 1.8 wt ohhddn1 wt ointdn1 0.00007 1.2 0.0004 8 2.2 0.0001 4 1 wt onosid1 1.38 2.8 2.96 2.4 3.89 1.9 wt ostops1 0.737 7 0.291 2 0.121 0.3 0.296 1.3 0.312 1 Used transit to get to work 0.487 0.7 Auto mode Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat ca fclogsm 0.154 1.4 0.0944 0.7 ca nocars 4.69 9 5 (*) 3.09 4.6 3.6 10.2 ca carsltd 1.21 12.4 1.16 7.1 0.799 4.7 0.417 2.6 ca catowrk 1.67 4.7 Model Home based Work Home based School Home based Recrea on Home based Other Work based Table A-2. (Continued).

Model Home based Work Home based School Home based Recreaon Home based Shop/ PB Work based Observaons 4483 1327 1516 2568 476 Final log (L) 4652.4 1411.1 1398.8 2312.9 372.6 Rho squared (0) 0.415 0.403 0.476 0.496 0.563 Rho squared (const) 0.156 0.078 0.075 0.152 0.268 Walk mode Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Constant 1.07 2.1 0.91 2.3 2.96 7 1.81 3.8 3.34 4.5 Income under $25K 0.863 1.6 0.36 0.4 0.0615 0.1 0.702 1.7 Income above $100K 0.412 1.4 0.669 2.8 0.498 2.1 0.121 0.5 Male 0.543 2.3 0.578 2.6 0.0356 0.2 0.119 0.6 Network distance 0.942 9.8 1.45 9.7 1.6 13.4 1.87 14.2 1.88 7.7 Dest. Buffer 1 total employment 3.80E 05 3.8 Orig+Dest. Buffer 1 avg. net intersecon density 0.005 2 0.0111 3.6 Orig+Dest Buffer 1 avg. fracon rise 61.3 3.6 9.85 0.7 15.6 1 Origin Buffer 1 avg. frac on rise 36.2 1.4 Origin buffer 1% no sidewalk 0.84 1.7 1.07 2.7 1.44 3 Walked to work 10 Const? Complex mul stop tour 1.24 5.9 2.55 7.8 2.14 9.7 1.51 9.9 2.71 9.1 Bike mode Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Constant 2.92 3.9 4.12 6.7 4.53 7.5 3.74 6.4 8.82 5 Male 0.859 4.4 1.71 3 2.05 3.6 0.842 1.6 Age under 35 1.45 3 0.36 0.8 0.285 0.3 Age over 50 0.863 3.9 1.26 2.1 0.518 0.9 Route choice generalized distance 0.113 9.4 0.277 3.7 0.0874 2.8 0.276 3.6 0.331 0.7 Dest. Buffer 2 employment density 3.70E 07 0.1 Orig/dest Buffer 2 avg frac€on Class 1 4.97 3.7 3.01 2.8 Table A-3. Seattle tour-based mode-choice model estimation results, using origin and destination information.

path Origin Buffer 2 intersecon density 0.0061 4.8 Origin Buffer 2 avg. fracon rise 77.8 2.2 Biked to work 10 Const Complex mul stop tour 0.782 4.2 2.25 3 1.61 2.9 1.95 2.6 2 Const Transit mode Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Constant 4.74 13.2 1.6 1.6 3.15 2.1 5.61 6.8 8.05 3.1 Income under $25K 0.961 2.6 3.02 4.6 0.468 1 Income over $100K 0.447 3.4 0.0075 0 1.15 1.5 1.57 2.1 Male 0.186 1.6 0.0012 0 0.325 0.6 0.215 0.6 1.16 1.4 Age under 35 0.398 2 0.0084 0 0.458 0.7 2.25 1.7 In vehicle me (min) 0.01 Const 0.01 Const 0.01 Const 0.01 Const 0.01 Const Wait me (min) 0.02 Const 0.02 Const 0.02 Const 0.02 Const 0.02 Const Fare ($) 0.2 Const 0.2 Const 0.2 Const 0.2 Const 0.2 Const Origin Buffer 1 transit stops 0.539 5.3 0.334 1.6 0.608 1.6 0.214 1 0 Const Desnaon Buffer 1 transit stops 0.179 1.9 0.268 1.4 0.825 2.7 0.606 2.9 1.73 3 Desnaon Buffer 1 total employment 2.70E 05 4.9 Origin Buffer 1 intersecon density 1.50E 04 2.2 Origin buffer 1 pct. no sidewalk 0.715 1.1 4.26 2.6 Dest. buffer 1 pct. no sidewalk 0.872 1.2 Used transit to work 0.224 0.3 Complex mul stop tour 0.501 5.6 0.785 3.3 5.00E 15 0 0.647 2.5 1.5 1.9 Auto mode Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat Coeff. T stat No cars in the HH 4.7 8.7 5 Const 3.32 4.2 4.32 10.5 10 Const Fewer cars than adults in the HH 1.4 12.5 1.27 6.9 0.976 4.3 0.633 3.3 In vehicle me (min) 0.02 Const 0.02 Const 0.02 Const 0.02 Const 0.02 Const Desnaon parking cost ($) 0.06 Const 0.06 Const 0.06 Const 0.06 Const 0.06 Const Used car to get to work 2.3 3.7

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TRB’s National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Report 770: Estimating Bicycling and Walking for Planning and Project Development: A Guidebook contains methods and tools for practitioners to estimate bicycling and walking demand as part of regional-, corridor-, or project-level analyses.

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