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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2014 www.TRB.org The Second S T R A T E G I C H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M REPORT S2-C10A-RW-2 Transferability of Activity-Based Model Parameters John Gliebe, Mark bradley, nazneen Ferdous, Maren outwater, haiyun lin, and Jason Chen RSG White River Junction, Vermont

Subject Areas Environment Highways Planning and Forecasting

The Second Strategic Highway Research Program America’s highway system is critical to meeting the mobility and economic needs of local communities, regions, and the nation. Developments in research and technology—such as advanced materials, communications technology, new data collection tech- nologies, and human factors science—offer a new opportunity to improve the safety and reliability of this important national resource. Breakthrough resolution of significant transportation problems, however, requires concentrated resources over a short time frame. Reflecting this need, the second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) has an intense, large-scale focus, integrates multiple fields of research and technology, and is fundamentally different from the broad, mission-oriented, discipline-based research programs that have been the mainstay of the highway research industry for half a century. The need for SHRP 2 was identified in TRB Special Report 260: Strategic Highway Research: Saving Lives, Reducing Congestion, Improving Quality of Life, published in 2001 and based on a study sponsored by Congress through the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21). SHRP 2, modeled after the first Strategic Highway Research Program, is a focused, time- constrained, management-driven program designed to com- plement existing highway research programs. SHRP 2 focuses on applied research in four areas: Safety, to prevent or reduce the severity of highway crashes by understanding driver behavior; Renewal, to address the aging infrastructure through rapid design and construction methods that cause minimal disruptions and produce lasting facilities; Reliability, to reduce congestion through incident reduction, management, response, and mitigation; and Capacity, to integrate mobility, economic, environmental, and community needs in the planning and designing of new trans- portation capacity. SHRP 2 was authorized in August 2005 as part of the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). The program is managed by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) on behalf of the National Research Council (NRC). SHRP 2 is conducted under a memo- randum of understanding among the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), and the National Academy of Sciences, parent organization of TRB and NRC. The program provides for competitive, merit-based selection of research contractors; independent research project oversight; and dissemination of research results. SHRP 2 Reports Available by subscription and through the TRB online bookstore: www.TRB.org/bookstore Contact the TRB Business Office: 202-334-3213 More information about SHRP 2: www.TRB.org/SHRP2 SHRP 2 Report S2-C10A-RW-2 ISBN: 978-0-309-27381-7 © 2014 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Copyright Information Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copy- right to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. The second Strategic Highway Research Program grants permission to repro- duce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, or FHWA endorsement of a particular prod- uct, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing material in this document for educational and not-for-profit purposes will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from SHRP 2. Note: SHRP 2 report numbers convey the program, focus area, project number, and publication format. Report numbers ending in “w” are published as web documents only. Notice The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the second Strategic Highway Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical committee selected to monitor this project and review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical committee and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the second Strategic Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achieve- ments of engineers. Dr. C. D. (Dan) Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. (Dan) Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisci- plinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transporta- tion, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration in cooperation with the American Asso- ciation of State Highway and Transportation Officials. It was conducted in the second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2), which is administered by the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. The project was managed by Stephen J. Andrle, Deputy Director for SHRP 2. Jason Chen and Haiyun Lin were the RSG staff members who performed most of the technical work described in this document. They received scripting and GIS support from Bhargava Sana and Erich Rentz, respectively. Joe Wildey provided copy editing and formatting support for this report. The work done to create synthetic populations was led by the Fulton School of Engineering at Arizona State University. John Bowman was responsible for much of the work referenced in Appendix C on the transferability of estimated parameters. This work would not have been possible without the cooperation and hard work of the staff members of the North Florida Transportation Planning Organization in Jacksonville and the District 7 Systems Planning group of the Florida Department of Transportation, Tampa. These agencies were supported by teams of local consultants: Atkins; Gannett Fleming, Inc.; Grimail Crawford Inc.; and Reynolds, Smith & Hill. SHRP 2 STAFF Ann M. Brach, Director Stephen J. Andrle, Deputy Director Neil J. Pedersen, Deputy Director, Implementation and Communications Cynthia Allen, Editor Kenneth Campbell, Chief Program Officer, Safety JoAnn Coleman, Senior Program Assistant, Capacity and Reliability Eduardo Cusicanqui, Financial Officer Richard Deering, Special Consultant, Safety Data Phase 1 Planning Walter Diewald, Senior Program Officer, Safety Shantia Douglas, Senior Financial Assistant Charles Fay, Senior Program Officer, Safety Carol Ford, Senior Program Assistant, Renewal and Safety Jo Allen Gause, Senior Program Officer, Capacity Rosalind Gomes, Accounting/Financial Assistant James Hedlund, Special Consultant, Safety Coordination Alyssa Hernandez, Reports Coordinator Ralph Hessian, Special Consultant, Capacity and Reliability Andy Horosko, Special Consultant, Safety Field Data Collection William Hyman, Senior Program Officer, Reliability Linda Mason, Communications Officer Reena Mathews, Senior Program Officer, Capacity and Reliability Matthew Miller, Program Officer, Capacity and Reliability Michael Miller, Senior Program Assistant, Capacity and Reliability David Plazak, Senior Program Officer, Capacity Rachel Taylor, Senior Editorial Assistant Dean Trackman, Managing Editor Connie Woldu, Administrative Coordinator

F O R E W O R D Stephen J. Andrle, SHRP 2 Deputy Director This report will be of particular interest to planning organizations considering development of an activity-based travel demand model and, in general, to professionals who use travel demand models as part of the transportation planning process. The SHRP 2 program devel- oped proof-of-concept Dynamic Integrated Models in partnership with planning organi- zations in Sacramento, California, and Jacksonville, Florida. “Dynamic Integrated Model” refers to an activity-based travel demand model linked with a feedback loop to a Dynamic Traffic Assignment (simulation) model. The goal of that research was to improve urban- scale modeling and network procedures to address operations or spot improvements that affect travel-time choice, route choice, mode choice, reliability, or emissions. Building a new activity-based model set for transportation planning is an expensive and time-consuming commitment. The objective of this research was to determine if activity- based model parameters can be successfully transferred from one community to another. If transfer of parameters could be shown to produce reasonable results, it could save develop- ment time and money. DaySim, an activity-based travel demand model originally developed in Sacramento, California, was applied to Jacksonville, Florida, with Sacramento parameters and then cali- brated to the Jacksonville environment. DaySim was also applied to Tampa, Florida, with Sacramento parameters and then calibrated with local data. A statistical analysis was per- formed to identify significant differences between transferred parameters and parameters developed from local data. Variations in model performance on validation tests were also evaluated. The analyses identified specific model components that would be better trans- ferred than reestimated and others for which it would be better to reestimate. A model with borrowed parameters must still be calibrated against local conditions. A significant finding of the research was that there must be a good match between the complexity of the source model to be transferred and the depth and coverage of data available for calibrating at the destination site. A second finding was that urban areas must be similar in key demographics such as household size, age, income, auto ownership, and trip purposes. Tampa has a much higher proportion of retirees and non-work-trip purposes than either Sacramento or Jacksonville, a situation that affected the transferability of parameters. Travel demand models have been used for more than half a century to determine the need and estimate the usage of proposed new highway and transit systems. The majority of such models use Traffic Analysis Zones to aggregate demographic data and estimate interzonal travel demand for large time blocks (such as morning peak period). The interzonal demand is assigned to a link and node network to estimate likely roadway volumes. Activity-based travel demand models are based on the disaggregate travel activity of indi- vidual travelers, not the aggregate behavior of all the travelers in a zone. They have the poten- tial to better simulate behaviors such as time-of-day choice, route choice, mode choice, and trip chaining. Because they are disaggregate and based on individual behavior, there may be potential to borrow model structures and parameters to reduce model development costs in new locations.

In this project the DaySim activity-based demand model developed in Sacramento, California, was transferred to both the Jacksonville and Tampa, Florida, regions. The struc- ture and parameters (coefficients) of the original Sacramento DaySim model were applied in Jacksonville and Tampa using local demographic and land-use data. Then, local data were used to reestimate parameters and coefficients, effectively creating new activity-based model sets for the Jacksonville and Tampa regions. Statistical and model performance tests were conducted between the model pairs, revealing significant differences that varied by model component and the regions being compared. The analysis was hampered by small sample sizes or absence of data for certain variables required in the Sacramento DaySim specifications, leading to the observation that the com- plexity of a borrowed model specification should be supported by the data available at the destination site. In addition, spatial distribution of activity centers is region specific, which can lead to differences in mean trip lengths.

C O N T E N T S 1 Executive Summary 3 CHAPTER 1 Background 3 Motivation for the Study 3 Overview of the Study 4 Assessing Transferability 4 Confounding Factors 6 CHAPTER 2 Research Approach 6 Data Development and Integration 6 Parcel-Based Land-Use Data 7 Regional Households and Employment 8 Network Models 9 Auxiliary Demand Models 10 Urban Form and Accessibility Variables 10 Model Estimation 10 Model Calibration 12 CHAPTER 3 Findings and Applications 12 Estimation of Model Components to Test Transferability 12 Transferability Tests for Tampa and Jacksonville 24 Calibration of Regional Models to Test Transferability 29 CHAPTER 4 Conclusions 29 Reestimation Tests 30 Calibration Tests 31 Final Recommendations 32 References 33 Appendix A. Detailed Model Estimation Results 110 Appendix B. Summary of Model Calibration Differences 133 Appendix C. Transferability Tests for Six Regions

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TRB’s second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Report S2-C10A-RW-2: Transferability of Activity-Based Model Parameters explores the development of regional activity-based modeling systems for these cities.

The report also examines the concept of transferability of parameters as a means to save metropolitan planning organizations from the need to invest in data collection and model estimation, with the goal of making activity-based models practical for a wider market.

The same project that developed this report also produced a report titled Dynamic, Integrated Model System: Jacksonville-Area Application that explores development of a dynamic integrated travel demand model with advanced policy analysis capabilities.

Capacity Project C10A developed a start-up guide for the application of the DaySim activity-based demand model and a TRANSIMS network for Burlington, Vermont, to test linking the demand and network models before transferring the model structure to the larger Jacksonville, Florida, area. The two model applications used in these locations are currently available.

Software Disclaimer: This software is offered as is, without warranty or promise of support of any kind either expressed or implied. Under no circumstance will the National Academy of Sciences or the Transportation Research Board (collectively "TRB") be liable for any loss or damage caused by the installation or operation of this product. TRB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, in fact or in law, including without limitation, the warranty of merchantability or the warranty of fitness for a particular purpose, and shall not in any case be liable for any consequential or special damages.

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