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A I R P O R T C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M ACRP REPORT 107 TRANSPORTAT ION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2014 www.TRB.org Research sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration Subscriber Categories Aviation ⢠Safety and Human Factors Development of a Runway Veer-Off Location Distribution Risk Assessment Model and Reporting Template Manuel Ayres Jr. Regis Carvalho Hamid Shirazi Robert E. David Airport SAfety MAnAgeMent ConSultAntS, llC Miami, FL
AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in trans portation of people and goods and in regional, national, and inter national commerce. They are where the nationâs aviation system connects with other modes of transportation and where federal respon sibility for managing and regulating air traffic operations intersects with the role of state and local governments that own and operate most airports. Research is necessary to solve common operating problems, to adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and to introduce innovations into the airport industry. The Airport Coopera tive Research Program (ACRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the airport industry can develop innovative nearÂterm solutions to meet demands placed on it. The need for ACRP was identified in TRB Special Report 272: Airport Research Needs: Cooperative Solutions in 2003, based on a study spon sored by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The ACRP carries out applied research on problems that are shared by airport operating agencies and are not being adequately addressed by existing federal research programs. It is modeled after the successful National Coopera tive Highway Research Program and Transit Cooperative Research Pro gram. The ACRP undertakes research and other technical activities in a variety of airport subject areas, including design, construction, mainte nance, operations, safety, security, policy, planning, human resources, and administration. The ACRP provides a forum where airport opera tors can cooperatively address common operational problems. The ACRP was authorized in December 2003 as part of the Vision 100ÂCentury of Aviation Reauthorization Act. The primary participants in the ACRP are (1) an independent governing board, the ACRP Oversight Committee (AOC), appointed by the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation with representation from airport operating agencies, other stakeholders, and relevant industry organizations such as the Airports Council InternationalÂNorth America (ACIÂNA), the American Associa tion of Airport Executives (AAAE), the National Association of State Aviation Officials (NASAO), Airlines for America (A4A), and the Airport Consultants Council (ACC) as vital links to the airport community; (2) the TRB as program manager and secretariat for the governing board; and (3) the FAA as program sponsor. In October 2005, the FAA executed a contract with the National Academies formally initiating the program. The ACRP benefits from the cooperation and participation of airport professionals, air carriers, shippers, state and local government officials, equipment and service suppliers, other airport users, and research orga nizations. Each of these participants has different interests and respon sibilities, and each is an integral part of this cooperative research effort. Research problem statements for the ACRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to the TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the AOC to formulate the research program by iden tifying the highest priority projects and defining funding levels and expected products. Once selected, each ACRP project is assigned to an expert panel, appointed by the TRB. Panels include experienced practitioners and research specialists; heavy emphasis is placed on including airport pro fessionals, the intended users of the research products. The panels pre pare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooper ative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, ACRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating ACRP results to the intended endÂusers of the research: airport operating agencies, service providers, and suppliers. The ACRP produces a series of research reports for use by airport operators, local agencies, the FAA, and other interested parties, and industry associations may arrange for work shops, training aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by airportÂindustry practitioners. ACRP REPORT 107 Project 04Â14 ISSN 1935Â9802 ISBN 978Â0Â309Â28385Â4 Library of Congress Control Number 2014932036 © 2014 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and notÂforÂprofit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB or FAA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and notÂforÂprofit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the Airport Cooperative Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical panel selected to monitor this project and to review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the Airport Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturersâ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. Published reports of the AIRPORT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from: Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet at http://www.nationalÂacademies.org/trb/bookstore Printed in the United States of America
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academyâs purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transporta- tion Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisciplinary, and multimodal. The Boardâs varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individu- als interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org
C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research reported herein was performed under ACRP Project 4Â14 by Airport Safety Management Consultants (ASMC), Dynatest Corp., Applied Research Associates Inc. (ARA) and Robert E. David & Associates, Inc. (RED). ASMC was the prime contractor for this study, with Dynatest, ARA and RED serving as subÂconsultants. Dr. Manuel Ayres, Founding Principal at ASMC, was the Principal Investigator and Project Manager; Dr. Regis Carvalho, Principal Engineer at Dynatest, served as CoÂPrincipal Investigator. The other authors of this report are Mr. Hamid Shirazi (ARA) and Mr. Robert David (RED). A very important contribution to this study was provided by MITRE Corporation. MITRE made avail able its comprehensive database of accidents, and it significantly improved the availability of information to develop the risk models presented in this study. Finally, we want to thank Mr. Luiz Eduardo Sousa, airport engineer and former pilot, who was a key consultant to define the criteria used to draw inferences about the veerÂoff paths from report narratives. AUTHOR DISCLAIMER The Lateral Runway Safety Area Risk Analysis (LRSARA) software tool developed as a product of ACRP Project 04Â14 is not intended for use in either determining runway safety area (RSA) dimensions or for jus tifying a modification to FAA design standards. Users are advised to consult the latest version of FAA Advi sory Circular 150/5300Â13 and to work with the FAA with respect to RSA determinations as appropriate. The tool should not be used without adequate knowledge of the contents of this report. Neither ACRP nor ASM Consultants shall be held liable for losses, injuries or damage which may arise from using the LRSARA tool, or be responsible for the accuracy or validity of data generated by the tool. CRP STAFF FOR ACRP REPORT 107 Christopher W. Jenks, Director, Cooperative Research Programs Michael R. Salamone, ACRP Manager Joseph D. Navarrete, Senior Program Officer Terri Baker, Senior Program Assistant Eileen P. Delaney, Director of Publications Scott E. Hitchcock, Editor ACRP PROJECT 04-14 PANEL Field of Safety Deborah T. Marino, Titusville-Cocoa Airport Authority, Titusville, FL (Chair) Laurie Cullen, Atkins North America, Inc., Lincoln, RI Scott McMahon, Morristown Municipal Airport, DM Airports, LTD, Morristown, NJ Jeff Mort, Los Angeles World AirportsâLAX, Los Angeles, CA Verne R. Skagerberg, Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities, Juneau, AK Xiaosong âSeanâ Xiao, DY Consultants, Garden City, NY Khalil Kodsi, FAA Liaison Richard Marchi, Airports Council InternationalâNorth America Liaison Christine Gerencher, TRB Liaison
F O R E W O R D By Joseph D. Navarrete Staff Officer Transportation Research Board ACRP Report 107: Development of a Runway Veer-Off Location Distribution Risk Assess- ment Model and Reporting Template provides airports and their stakeholders with a method to assess the risk of lateral runway excursions, also known as veerÂoffs, and suggests ways to improve veerÂoff incident/accident reporting. The culmination of the research is the development of the Lateral Runway Safety Area Risk Analysis (LRSARA) tool that practi tioners can use to determine the probability of runway veerÂoffs in specific areas at their particular airport. Design standards for runway safety areas (RSAs) are provided in FAAâs Advisory Cir cular 150/5300, Airport Design; however, many airports face financial or environmental constraints that limit their ability to meet these standards. While significant research has been done on aircraft runway overruns and undershoots, limited analysis has been done for veerÂoffs. Additionally, veerÂoff incident/accident data are limited and of varying quality. Research was therefore needed to develop riskÂbased models to assist airports and other stakeholders in assessing the relative risks associated with aircraft veerÂoffs and for develop ing guidelines for reporting and collecting runway veerÂoff incident/accident data. This research, led by Airport Safety Management Consultants under ACRP Project 04Â14, began with the development of a preliminary modeling approach in order to identify data requirements. This was followed by collecting data on runway veerÂoffs from multiple sources. The models were then developed and validated using information from more than 1,100 veerÂoff events. This led to a series of suggestions to improve veerÂoff reporting and future riskÂbased tools. This report contains eight chapters. Chapter 1 provides a background for the study. Chapter 2 describes the research approach. Chapters 3 and 4 discuss veerÂoff reporting and data collection, availability, and limitations. Chapters 5 through 7 outline the approach taken to model veerÂoff risk and to develop and validate the analysis software. Conclu sions and suggestions for improved veerÂoff reporting are provided in Chapter 8. A series of appendices complement the report and software tool, including a template for veerÂoff reporting, a summary of the data used in the study, and a user guide for the tool. The LRSARA tool can be downloaded from the CD included with this report or from the Transportation Research Board website (www.trb.org, search for ACRP Report 107). Two types of analyses are possible with the tool: simplified and full. The simplified analysis uses default or userÂdefined values. The full analysis allows users to perform risk assessments based on runway dimensions, obstacles, fleet mix, weather data, field elevation, air tempera ture, and runway surface condition.
C O N T E N T S 1 Summary 2 Chapter 1 Background 2 Introduction 3 Project Objectives 4 Chapter 2 Research Approach 5 Chapter 3 Veer-Off Reporting and Data Collection 5 Data Required for Modeling VeerÂOff Distances 6 Location References Used 6 Longitudinal Distances 6 Lateral Distances 7 Aviation Accident and Incident Databases 7 Database Statistics 9 Chapter 4 Availability of Data for Modeling Veer-Off Risk 9 U.S. Databases 9 NTSB 10 FAA AIDS 10 FAA/NASA ASRS 10 International Databases 10 Why Should Data Collection Be Improved? 10 Potential Improvements to VeerÂOff Reporting 11 NTSB 11 FAA AIDS 11 NASA/FAA ASRS 11 What Data Needs to Be Collected? 12 Essential Data 12 Supporting Data 12 Implementation of VeerÂOff Data Collection Procedures 13 Alternative Sources of Information 13 Summary of Data Available/Usable 13 Assumptions Made 16 Chapter 5 Modeling Veer-Off Risk 16 General Approach 16 Event Probability 19 Location Probability Models 19 Main Challenges to Develop Location Models 20 Characterization of the Aircraft VeerÂOff Path 21 Normalization of Longitudinal Distances 22 Location Models 27 VeerÂOff Consequences Approach 27 Probability of Accidents 28 Probability of Aircraft Striking Obstacles
31 Chapter 6 Analysis Software 31 Overview 31 Software Capabilities 31 Input Data 32 Output and Interpretation 35 Chapter 7 Model Validation 35 Validation of VeerÂOff Location Models 35 Summary of Independent Sample Data 35 Probability Distribution for Longitudinal Distances 36 Probability Distribution for Lateral Distances 36 Comparison of Estimated Risk with Historical Frequency 37 Validation of Frequency Models 37 Validation of Accident Risk Models 40 Chapter 8 Conclusions and Guidance 40 Major Achievements 40 Updated VeerÂOff Accident and Incident Database 40 Validated Location Models to Estimate Likelihood of Aircraft Challenging Runway Safety Subareas 41 Approach Incorporating VeerÂOff Location Models to Estimate Risk 41 Software Tool to Analyze Lateral RSA 41 Model Limitations 41 Guidance 41 Expand the Approach to Lighter Aircraft 41 Improve VeerÂOff Reporting 43 Bibliography 44 Acronyms & Abbreviations 46 Glossary 47 Appendix A Template for Veer-Off Reporting 49 Appendix B Summary of Accidents and Incidents for Modeling 73 Appendix C Lateral Deviation Models for Normalization Alternative 1âRunway Distance Available 78 Appendix D LRSARA User Guide 110 Attachment A â Historical Operations Data 115 Attachment B â Historical Weather Data 120 Appendix E Summary of Accidents and Incidents for Validation 122 Appendix F Accidents and Incidents at Airports Selected for Validation 123 Appendix G Location Models for Other Normalization Alternatives Note: Many of the photographs, figures, and tables in this report have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the Web at www.trb.org) retains the color versions.
