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Guidebook for Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data (2013)

Chapter: Chapter 6.0 - Playbook

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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6.0 - Playbook ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Guidebook for Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22523.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6.0 - Playbook ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Guidebook for Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22523.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6.0 - Playbook ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Guidebook for Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22523.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6.0 - Playbook ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Guidebook for Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22523.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6.0 - Playbook ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Guidebook for Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22523.
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 6.0 - Playbook ." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Guidebook for Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22523.
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136 Playbook 6.1 Introduction to the Playbook This section of the Guidebook is designed to help users develop a structured approach to diagnosing their commodity flow data needs and figuring out what methods are best applied to their freight transportation planning problem. This section is called the “Playbook.” Football terminology is used here because this section allows the users to construct a “game plan” from among the many “plays” (or methods) that they have available to them. The game plan will be tailored to users’ specific circumstances and the problems they are trying to solve. In many cases, users will want to combine multiple methods to take advantage of the strengths and compensate for the weaknesses of individual methods. The Playbook helps guide users through diagnosing their problem and data needs, identifying their resources and skills, and exploring their relation- ship with the private-sector freight community (the source of much potentially useful data) in order to help craft the right game plan for their situation. The Playbook provides some real-life examples of problems that planners are dealing with that require commodity flow data and uses these examples to illustrate the thought process involved in developing an approach and selecting the appropriate commodity flow data development methods. 6.2 Getting Started—What Should Be Known About Problems and Resources It cannot be stressed strongly enough that in order to apply the major techniques for develop- ing commodity flow data properly, the user needs a specific question to be answered. The more specific the question, the more likely the right sequence and techniques will be applied. It is recommended that prior to moving forward the user and any stakeholders deemed important to the outcome of the process spend time explicitly developing the key questions to be answered. Another important dimension is the designation of the perspective for the user. For example, if the user is involved in issues at the national level, the primary source of commodity flow information, the CFS, provides answers for those questions on the commodities covered in the survey. The sampling strategy used was designed to make estimates at the national level sufficient for planning applications. FAF also is designed for federal questions, with accompanying visu- alizations. Additional strategies are needed when the questions needing to be answered involve a commodity not included in the survey. Reaching out to trade associations and other major information providers, as described in Chapter 4, could provide sufficient answers. If the user is asking questions regarding a multistate regional problem, CFS data from the states in the region could be aggregated, or FAF regional geographies could be sufficient to answer the questions. Careful observation of the geographies used for special aggregations of data sets needs C H A P T E R 6 . 0

Playbook 137 to be reconciled to the boundaries of the region of concern. State-level users can directly apply the state totals from CFS and FAF and other state-level data sets. However, as previously noted, if the desired commodity is outside of the scope of these data sets, another approach is needed, which may include locating trade association and other industry-specific sources. Only a small subset of MPO areas is included in CFS data. All others are part of a “rest of state” total, which then requires use of one of the disaggregating techniques described in Chapter 5.0 to attempt to localize commodity information. This also is the case for any attempts to use CFS data for local uses. Many users of the Guidebook may be able to use relatively low-cost techniques to disaggregate CFS or FAF data for an MPO region that is part of the “rest of state” total to get an initial sense of key commodities and trading partners so that data collection can focus on industries and commodities that are of most interest. Since new primary data collection can be very expensive, particularly if the application of the data requires very geographically dis- aggregate information, using disaggregated CFS or FAF data to target the primary data collection on specific industries and commodities is a good way of combining inexpensive disaggregation techniques with primary data collection. Many users of freight data also report the need to validate or improve upon national data sets, such as TRANSEARCH. Since TRANSEARCH can be purchased with county-level or even zip-code-level geographic detail, it is an attractive option for many states and MPOs who need this level of detail. But users often ask how accurate the data are at this level of geographic dis- aggregation. Using information from Chapters 4.0 and 5.0 of the Guidebook, users should be able to identify local economic data sets and economic input-output model data that will give them an idea of the relative value of shipments of different types of commodities for their region as a whole. These data can be compared to TRANSEARCH data to identify apparent anomalies. Then, more focused surveys of the industries that produce and consume these commodities can be conducted using the establishment survey techniques described in Chapter 2.0 as a way of improving upon the TRANSEARCH data. These are just a few ways that the different methods described in the Guidebook can be combined once users clearly define the question they are trying to answer and the specific data that will be important. The time available to answer a question affects the amount of attention it will be given and the depth of the investigation. In emergency situations, often the easiest way to obtain data is used, while special studies can be conducted if sufficient time is available to plan and execute such a study. After determining the perspective to be used, the next understanding necessary is the skill set of the work force tasked with answering the question. This includes previous experience with CFS, FAF, and other freight data sources. It includes relationships with freight community members. Some users have met formally with freight community members for years (e.g., Seattle Freight Roundtable), while other users have never previously included freight community members in their transportation planning tasks. In cases where there is extensive trust, it is more likely that data sources can be shared and analysis can be reviewed for reasonableness both by public-sector and private-sector individuals. More than any other area of transportation planning and analysis, freight issues are best addressed with a dual approach—public- and private-sector data partnerships. At the same time, there are many analyses that can be conducted by the public sector whether the private sector is involved or not. Including the freight community could help with efficiency of effort. To summarize the key points of this section, to effectively use the Guidebook, it is important to know the following: • What needs to be learned? (explicit description with specific questions). • Who is asking for this knowledge? (description of the agency/firm, including perspective and geographic constraints). • What resources are available? (e.g., available data and staff skill set with these resources)

138 Guidebook for Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data 6.3 Considerations in Answering Sample Freight Questions This section of the Playbook provides several examples of problems that require different types of subnational commodity flow data. Each example provides a description of the problem, why commodity flow data are needed, and what types of commodity flow data are needed. This section also presents an approach to using different methods, often in combination, to address these needs. References to relevant Guidebook chapters appear in bold. After the problems are introduced in this section, the next sections of the Playbook are set up in more of a workbook format, first describing a self-assessment process that can be used to determine the types of methods that will generally work for a particular problem, followed by some sample problems presented in a format that models how users can describe their own problem and prepare a game plan. After the examples are presented in workbook format, a blank Playbook worksheet and instructions are provided so that users can construct a game plan to attack their subnational commodity flow data problem. 6.3.1 Example #1. Analyzing the Market for a Short Sea Shipping Service The situation in Example #1 is a group of states and MPOs on the West Coast of the United States who are interested in whether it would be possible to develop a short sea shipping service on the West Coast. The group wants to examine whether there is a sufficient market to support a service, which port pairs should be considered in the service, and what the potential impacts will be on truck and rail flows in some critical corridors. • Need for and types of subnational commodity data – Identify the specific commodities that would be most likely to be carried by different types of short sea services (containerized, bulk, etc.). – Once the commodities to be carried are determined, identify the volume (tonnage and value) of commodities that will be carried between the port pairs that are under consider- ation as locations for the short sea services. The origins or final destinations of the commodi- ties should be within drayage distance from their ports of departure and arrival (probably 100 to 150 miles), respectively, which could include multiple counties surrounding the ports (county-to-county flows). – Examine the modes that would be affected by the new short sea shipping service (i.e., deter- mine the modal shifts). This will require modal details on the existing commodity flows. • Possible methods – Use disaggregated FAF or TRANSEARCH data to get an initial idea of what commodities move between the states, or, in this case, a user can probably get metro area flows in total. Identify commodities of interest/or that are most plentiful (see Chapter 5.0 for methods). – Look to see whether there are local sources of data on particular commodities (like agri- cultural or mineral products) such as state government sources or trade associations that address the commodities of interest (see Chapter 4.0 for methods). – Once particular commodities of interest have been determined, do an establishment survey of shippers of these commodities within the counties of interest to get more accurate data on the flow volumes. Since this will be an expensive step, it may be prudent to wait until it has been determined from previous steps that there is a potentially viable market with sufficient volume. – To adequately understand the potential for shifting the commodity flows to the short sea mode, determine competitiveness by investigating the rates currently charged by mode. Such rates could be obtained through an establishment survey. – Conduct a special study to understand the operating costs of the short sea shipping service.

Playbook 139 Some of these actions are sequential and others can be conducted simultaneously. The lead agency will need to structure a comprehensive approach that takes advantage of available strengths and mitigates weaknesses. This customization can rely on the methods in the Guidebook, but also will require a smart application of techniques that will work for a particular situation, with all of its ramifications. 6.3.2 Example #2. Developing an Advanced Freight Model Another example of a real-world need is the development of inputs for, and calibration of, a supply chain freight transportation model in the Chicago metro area (or any other major inter- modal hub and trans-shipment location). It is well-known that Chicago is home to a large num- ber of logistics parks, intermodal terminals, and railyards. The region is building a mesoscale model (zones in the region are the scale of townships—smaller than counties but larger than TAZs) of supply chains that move products through the metro region. One of the applications for the model is to look at how various proposals for new logistics hubs and intermodal terminals will affect freight flows through the region, including potential changes in the patterns of rail and truck flows through specific corridors. One approach to developing a supply chain model starts with commodity flows from a source like FAF that shows all the commodity flows that have an origin-destination in the region (including wholesale trade and third-party logistics transfers) and allocates these to specific industry supply chains (shipper-receiver industry pairs). Individual business decisions are mod- eled such that receivers can choose suppliers from a pool of available suppliers (controlled to the commodity flow totals between the industries and at the township level) and then logistics paths are chosen to maximize supply chain objectives (typically a combination of logistics cost minimization and some other service variable). • Need for and types of subnational commodity flow data – The construction of the supply chains with shipper-receiver pairs requires information about commodity flows with origin-destination detail within the Chicago metro area that gets down to the township level with a high level of commodity detail. It also requires an understanding of the quantity of these commodity flows that move through wholesalers and other intermediate handling locations. • Possible methods – FAF flows can be allocated to the county level using County Business Pattern employ- ment data and to townships using Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data (see Chapter 5.0 for methods). While this approach may not be as accurate as conducting a new establishment survey (see Chapter 2.0 for methods), it may be sufficient for high-level regional modeling. – Some industry sectors, particularly warehousing, are not well correlated with employment and will need additional investigation to allocate flows. This might require a special set of interviews or an establishment survey of particular types of firms (see Chapter 2.0 for methods and Chapter 5.0 for discussion of the limitations of disaggregation techniques using employment data). – In addition, since flows through intermediate handling facilities are not likely to be accu- rately represented in this allocation process, conduct specific establishment surveys of logistics parks and intermodal terminals (see Chapter 2.0 for methods). – After a model is developed and an initial estimate of township-level flows has been devel- oped, identify the township zones with the highest flow values or commodities that rep- resent the most significant share and conduct establishment surveys focused on these geographic areas or industries. Also, drill down on rail flows using the STB Waybill data (see Chapter 2.0 for methods).

140 Guidebook for Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data This example suggests the use of a prioritization process that focuses the most attention on the places experiencing the highest flows or on commodities representing the most significant levels of activity. If there are other local considerations (e.g., development questions for a particular property), additional investigations could be required, including detailed site-selection elements considered by the real estate industry (e.g., direct access to highways for a particular site). 6.3.3 Example #3. Understanding Development Potential for New Distribution Centers and Supporting Infrastructure Needs While similar in outcome to Example #2, the development of new distribution centers and supporting infrastructure as economic development projects for the Phoenix and Reno areas is actually more complex as it involves two states. Arizona and Nevada know that there are major national and regional distribution centers in California (Northern and Southern), but that space for expansion is getting difficult to find. The state DOTs in partnership with economic develop- ment agencies are interested in looking at the potential for developing logistics parks outside of Phoenix and Reno and want to know how much supporting infrastructure investment might be needed. • Need for and types of subnational commodity flow data – It will be important to know current and projected flow volumes of through traffic related to product distribution on I-80 through Reno and I-10 through Phoenix. – In addition, it will be important to establish the nature of competitive costs between these places and in relation to other places. – Depending on the timeframe, a full supply chain analysis of assembly, processing, and distribution of the candidate industries needs to be compiled. • Possible methods – CFS is unlikely to provide any information on the quantity of the commodity flows related to distribution, and, while FAF may include these flows, specifically identifying the distri- bution center flows in FAF is not possible. Conducting a roadside intercept survey along I-80 or I-10 would allow for collection of this type of information (see Chapter 3.0 for methods). – Once the major commodities and volumes and origin and destination are identified from the roadside survey, FAF commodity flow data assigned to the road network could be calibrated to these flows, and then the FAF forecasts could be used to project the potential market (see Chapter 5.0 for methods). – To forecast distribution center demand, the growth rate of several surrogate variables can be considered including employment within the warehouse or wholesale industries, pro- jected growth of industries most likely to use distribution centers, or overall growth of end markets targeted by distribution centers. Again, if specific local questions need to be addressed, communications with the real estate industry should be pursued to clarify issues with site selection. 6.3.4 Examples #4 and #5. Evaluating Modal Diversion Potential A real-world example of an attempt to understand the potential for a modal diversion from truck to rail concerns I-81 in Virginia. This example is similar to one involving the assessment of the modal diversion potential for a new Cross Harbor Rail Tunnel between New Jersey and Long Island. In the case of I-81, there already is a recognition that congestion and truck volumes are growing rapidly. The Virginia DOT (VDOT) is interested in working with the railroads to determine the effect of a potential diversion from truck to rail if the state works in a public- private partnership to improve north-south rail service in the corridor.

Playbook 141 • Need for and types of subnational commodity flow data – Would like to know current and projected volumes of commodities that are potentially shippable by rail that are now shipped by truck due to lack of good rail service. – Need to identify the commodities that are shipped long distances on I-81 by truck now and develop a method for forecasting. Need to know rates and costs and capacity of alternative modes. • Possible methods – Use previous research to identify the appropriate commodities and characteristics of these commodities relative to the performance of each mode and to appropriate distances. Con- duct a roadside survey to determine current volumes on I-81 (see Chapter 3.0 for methods). – Identify FAF flows assigned to the road network and then calibrate these to the roadside data. Use FAF growth forecasts to project the flows (see Chapter 5.0 for methods). All of these examples have certain similarities in terms of how the user should address the problem: • Combinations of methods are very helpful when solving subnational commodity flow prob- lems because they allow the user to work with methods on a continuum from very detailed primary data collection to less intensive techniques that use what is readily at hand. • The process involves defining the problem by thinking about which industries and commodities are going to be most important, whether the problem covers a large area or is focused along spe- cific corridors, and understanding which modes are important. Armed with this information, any primary data collection can be focused on specific industries, geographic areas, and modal flows to reduce the size of the sample needed and the overall cost of primary data collection. • The process often involves manipulation/disaggregation of existing data sets as a starting place to help focus primary data collection. Always try to determine whether it is possible to answer part of a question with data at hand. 6.4 Self-Diagnosis of Available Freight Resources Below is a set of questions that need to be answered to help sort out the various dimensions that would call for different approaches. These questions help define the problem, the users’ level of experience, and their resources with respect to the dimensions that will be important as meth- ods are selected. Your responses to these questions can be compared to the questions that you are trying to answer to identify which portions of the recommended analysis can be conducted immediately, which portions require new data or training, and which portions might be suitable candidates to request outside support. USER IDENTIFICATION STRATEGY 1. Problem identification: Describe the problem as specifically as possible, with a summary of the desired outcome(s) and three specific questions that need to be answered: ? ? ?

142 Guidebook for Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data 2. User classification: a. Your agency is: i. ¨ Federal ¨ State ¨ Regional (multi-MPO) ¨ Multicounty MPO ¨ Single County MPO ¨ Local b. You need the answer(s) for your problem(s): i. ¨ Immediately (emergency) ¨ 3 weeks ¨ 6 months ¨ 1 year ¨ 1 to 3 years ¨ 3 to 5 years c. Staff resources available: i. ¨ None ¨ Part-time 1 person ¨ Full-time 1 person ¨ More than 1 full-time person d. Previous staff experience with similar problem(s): i. ¨ None ¨ Some experience ¨ Sufficient experience ¨ Extensive experience ¨ All such work would be conducted on contract e. Previous experience with freight community: i. ¨ None ¨ Web site ¨ Listserv ¨ Informal outreach ¨ Formal outreach ¨ Freight task force ¨ Permanent freight “roundtable” ¨ Private-sector initiative f. Previous staff experience with freight resources (None, Limited, Sufficient, Extensive): i. National data: a. CFS ¨ N ¨ L ¨ S ¨ E b. FAF ¨ N ¨ L ¨ S ¨ E c. CBP ¨ N ¨ L ¨ S ¨ E ii. Commercial data: a. TRANSEARCH ¨ N ¨ L ¨ S ¨ E b. InfoUSA ¨ N ¨ L ¨ S ¨ E c. Dun & Bradstreet ¨ N ¨ L ¨ S ¨ E iii. State data: a. State model ¨ N ¨ L ¨ S ¨ E iv. Relevant MPO data: a. MPO model ¨ N ¨ L ¨ S ¨ E v. Local data: a. Geocoded tax parcels ¨ N ¨ L ¨ S ¨ E vi. Freight studies: ¨ N ¨ L ¨ S ¨ E vii. Freight plans: ¨ N ¨ L ¨ S ¨ E Note that if your agency has little experience or staff availability to address key elements of this self-assessment, and these elements are directly related to the questions that you are trying to answer, then consideration should be given to hiring outside assistance. 3. Specific circumstances for this problem(s): a. This problem is located in a i. ¨ Broad multiregional area ¨ Single region ¨ Corridor within a multiregion ¨ Corridor entirely within the region b. Previous staff experience with this specific problem: ¨ N ¨ L ¨ S ¨ E c. Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) location designation: i. ¨ CFS metro area ¨ Rest of state ¨ Don’t yet know d. Does this problem involve interregional or interzonal trade flows without regard to spe- cific infrastructure being used? ¨ Y ¨ N

Playbook 143 e. Mode(s) involvement: i. ¨ Rail ¨ Truck ¨ Rail/Truck ¨ Water ¨ Water/Rail ¨ Water/Rail/Truck ¨ Air ¨ Air/Truck f. Is there a possibility for “competition/diversion” between two or more of these modes? ¨ Y ¨ N g. If “Yes,” are the reasons for the competition/diversion documented? ¨ Y ¨ N h. If “Yes,” are there specific parameters to measure this competition/diversion? ¨ Y ¨ N i. If “Yes,” what is the source of the parameters? ______________________________ j. Number of industries involved: i. ¨ Single industry ¨ 2–5 industries ¨ 5–10 industries ¨ More than 10 industries ¨ Don’t yet know_______ k. Number of commodities involved: i. ¨ Single commodity ¨ 2–5 commodities ¨ 5–10 commodities ¨ More than 10 commodities ¨ Don’t yet know Note that if the nature of your problem is beyond your jurisdiction, then interagency partnerships should be considered. Additionally, if staff is unfamiliar with the data, indus- try, or modal requirements of the problem, then consideration should be given to hiring outside assistance. 6.5 Examples of Preparing a Game Plan to Answer Freight Questions This section of the Playbook provides some generic examples of ways to address specific freight issues. These examples are for illustrative purposes and should not be taken as direct instruction for any one freight problem. Customizing an appropriate approach to any freight issue is recommended in all cases. Freight issues create a need for some specialized infor- mation to address particular circumstances in an appropriate manner. As a result, there are no “one-size-fits-all” solutions. Using the User Identification form helps identify elements for consideration, but not all the various classifications come into play, depending on the situation. The sample problems presented in this section are offered in a worksheet format so that users can see illustrations of how to set up a problem and determine the type of data approach that may work for them. While the Guidebook is designed as a comprehensive collection of methods and procedures for collecting and using commodity flow data, the Playbook provides structured steps to help users choose the right approach and evaluate whether any particular strategy is appropriate for the purposes desired. At the end of the section, a worksheet is provided with instructions that will help users in setting up a game plan for the commodity flow data problems that they face. The steps for developing a game plan are as follows: • Determine the circumstances generating the concerns. Describe the background and con- text for the concerns. The Playbook samples begin with a short description of the players or partners and the circumstance that is generating the need for subnational commodity flow information.

144 Guidebook for Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data • Formulate question(s). Questions need to be formally written so that everyone knows the level of specificity required and the limitations of this particular process for dealing with a freight issue. • Identify stakeholders. Which agencies or organizations should be involved in the process? Look specifically at public-sector players and private-sector players particularly helpful for freight issues. The “business” of freight is primarily a private-sector function, while the provi- sion of infrastructure and operations decisions often fall to the public sector. • Lay out an action plan, including identifying potential sources of data, reviewing the relevant portions of the methods chapters in the Guidebook, and following the appropri- ate steps. • Reflect on outcomes and additional strategies to confirm that the data collection/analysis strategy will be sufficient to answer the questions asked, identify additional uses of the work effort, and bolster the overall likelihood of success. 6.5.1 Playbook Sample Problem #1—Short Sea Shipping Determine the circumstances generating the concerns. A group of states and MPOs on the West Coast of the United States are interested in determining whether it would be possible to develop a short sea shipping service on the West Coast. Formulate question(s). • Is there a sufficient market to support a service? • Which port pairs should be considered in the service? • What would be the potential impacts on truck and rail flows in some critical corridors? Identify stakeholders. • Public Sector: State Departments of Transportation, MPOs, port authorities, port employee unions. • Private Sector: Shipping lines; terminal operators; regional, local, national, and international shippers. Lay out an action plan. One task of the action plan is to identify specific commodities that would most likely be carried by types of short sea services (containerized, bulk, etc.). To identify sources of relevant national data: • Review Chapter 5.0 to determine whether FAF or TRANSEARCH can be used to identify a set of commodities moving between the states/MPO regions considered as origin and desti- nation pairs. • Review User Identification Strategy form for level of expertise with FAF or TRANSEARCH data. • Learn more about FAF and TRANSEARCH at the following links: http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/faf/ http://www.TRANSEARCH.com/ To identify sources of relevant local data: • Review Chapter 4.0 to determine whether there are local sources of data on these com- modities such as state government agencies (e.g., agricultural or mineral products) or trade associations. • Review User Identification Strategy form for level of expertise with local data sources.

Playbook 145 The next task is to estimate the volume (both in tons and value) of these commodities that currently move between possible port pairs (with a drayage limitation of 100 to 150 miles) using county-to-county flows. The action items for this task are the following: • Review Guidebook Chapter 5.0 to determine whether FAF or TRANSEARCH can be used to quantify the tons and values moving between the states/MPO regions considered as origin and destination pairs. • Extract disaggregated data for the chosen set of commodities moving between origin and destination pairs at the county level, if possible. • Identify a set of port origin-destination pairs (using the 100 to 150 mile drayage limitation) for multiple counties. Calculate the tons and values moving between this set of port pairs. The final task is to identify which modes local firms currently are using to move these com- modities (e.g., truck or rail). The section in the Guidebook that can be used to fill this need is Chapter 2.0. Within this chapter the key elements are the following: • Follow instructions in Steps 1 through 6 to set the stage, making sure to be able to identify firms that move the commodities of interest. • Conduct the survey using instructions in Step 7. • Follow instructions for Steps 8, 9, and 10 to assemble the database. • Query the database for modes used to move the commodities of interest. Reflect on outcomes and additional strategies. This analysis can assist in identifying the level of public support that is appropriate to encour- age and develop short sea shipping facilities. The analysis should be able to generate estimates of tonnage potentials and industries impacted by the development of a short sea shipping service. Since this analysis may be of value to a number of jurisdictions, consider partnering with other agencies for this effort, if possible. This is particularly important when calculating the cost of conducting local surveys to understand the identified commodities. 6.5.2 Playbook Sample Problem #2—Enhancing MPO Modeling Capacity Determine the circumstances generating the concerns. A medium-sized MPO wants to enhance their freight modeling capacity using local freight data. Formulate question(s). • Can commodity flow data be gathered at the local level? • Can the data be used to model commodities moving: – Within the MPO region? – To and from ports within the MPO region? – To and from outside of the MPO region? Identify stakeholders. • Public Sector: MPOs and ports. • Private Sector: Local firms. Lay out an action plan. One element of the action plan is to identify a method for gathering local commodity flow data. To identify sources of relevant local data: • Review and use Chapter 2.0. • Follow instructions in Steps 1 through 6 to set the stage for the survey. • Conduct the survey using the instructions in Step 7.

146 Guidebook for Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data The next element is to estimate the volume (both in tons and value) of these commodities that move within the MPO region. The action items for this element are • Using Chapter 2.0. • Following instructions for Steps 8, 9, and 10. • Querying the database for commodities whose origins and destinations are within the MPO region. The next element is to estimate the volume (both in tons and value) of these commodities that move to or from ports in the MPO region. The action item for this element is to query the database for commodities whose origins and destinations are the port locations within the MPO region. The final element is to estimate the volume (both in tons and value) of these commodi- ties that move to or from the area outside the MPO region. The action item for this element is to query the database for commodities with origins and destinations that are outside the MPO region. Reflect on outcomes and additional strategies. This process should provide greater confidence in the trucking component of a regional travel demand model. It will enable a more accurate depiction of truck generation and movement throughout the region and the impacts of pursuing various project and policy initiatives on a corridor-specific and regional basis. Private-sector cooperation is critical for the success of this effort. Encourage dialogue and enthusiasm where possible as this could increase response rates, making your database more valuable for understanding commodity movement. 6.5.3 Playbook Sample Problem #3—State DOT Examining Trade Flows in Portion of the State That Is Dependent on Goods Movement Determine the circumstances generating the concerns. A state DOT wants to better understand freight flows in a portion of the state and on specific corridors. Formulate question(s). • What commodities are moving on the major east-west highway in the southern end of the state? • What commodities are moving on the major north-south highway in the southern end of the state? Identify stakeholders. • Public Sector: State DOT, local MPO(s), highway operators, and enforcement agencies such as state highway patrol. • Private Sector: Truck drivers using major highway networks and shippers and receivers rely- ing on local corridors to transport goods. Lay out the action plan. One element of the action plan is to identify a method for gathering state-level flow data on specific highway segments. To identify sources of relevant local data: • Review Chapter 3.0. • Determine the feasibility of conducting a roadside survey based on the issues identified in the chapter.

Playbook 147 The next element is to determine which commodities are moving on the major east-west highway in the southern end of the state. The action items for this element are the following: • Site selection – Using a GIS map, locate all truck weigh stations, rest areas, truck pull-out areas, and points of entry along the east-west highway network in the southern area of the state. – Determine the best sites on the map for stopping trucks for an intercept surveying effort. • Questionnaire design – Identify the most important information to collect in the survey. – Make any necessary modifications to the sample survey instrument (see Figure 3.3 of the Guidebook for an example questionnaire). – Determine whether you want to use electronic or paper survey instruments. • Selection of survey dates and times – Consider any seasonal behaviors in the state that might be important to consider in the surveying effort. • Data collection – Follow Steps 4 through 9 in Chapter 3.0 of the Guidebook to complete data collection. The final element is to determine which commodities are moving on the major north- south highway in the southern end of the state. The action items for this element are the following: • Site selection – Using a GIS map, locate all truck weigh stations, rest areas, truck pull-out areas, and points of entry along the north-south highway network in the southern area of the state. – Determine the best sites on the map for stopping trucks for the intercept surveying effort. • Selection of survey dates and times – Consider any seasonal behaviors in the state that might be important to consider in the surveying effort. • Data collection – Follow Steps 4 through 9 in the Guidebook to complete data collection. • Consider alternative modes in the region and/or corridor(s) – Identify parallel, non-highway transportation infrastructure that also moves goods in the corridor. Rail, marine, and air cargo flows—should they exist—are likely operated by, at most, a handful of operators. Therefore, it is likely that interviews with these non- highway modal operators will generate sufficient information to understand relevant flow activity. Reflect on outcomes and additional strategies. The outcome of this effort should include an understanding of how to budget and prioritize the limited resources allocated for truck survey data collection. Additionally, the information can be used to improve several planning activities including scenario development, project development, and diversion studies. The information might also identify key industries or origin-destination patterns for further study. Conducting a roadside surveying effort is labor- and resource-intensive. Consider partnering with other agencies if possible. To encourage cooperation, consider contact- ing local trucking associations and providing information about the surveying effort to local com- mercial establishments where trucking industry members might learn about the importance of participating in the program. It might also be important to include a set of pilot deployments prior to rolling out the entire surveying effort. Pilots will help identify any previously unidentified issues and provide an opportunity to “cure” these problems.

148 Guidebook for Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data 6.5.4 Playbook Sample Problem #4—Determination of Impacts of Intermodal Railyard Expansion Determine the circumstances generating the concerns. A large MPO is concerned about the impacts of an intermodal railyard expansion plan. Amongst several concerns, the MPO would like to confirm that its locally designated National Highway System (NHS) connectors to the yard have been appropriately identified. Formulate the question(s). • What will be the hourly truck volumes related to this planned expansion? • What will be the peak daily truck volumes related to this planned expansion? Identify stakeholders. • Public Sector: MPO, county, city, local neighborhood, State DOT for road maintenance, FHWA for NHS designation. • Private Sector: Railyard operator and shippers relying on rail service. Lay out the action plan. One element of the action plan is to identify a method for calculating truck volumes related to the railyard planning expansion. The action items for this element are the following: • Review Chapter 5.0. • Prepare an outreach plan to establish a working relation with the railyard operators and set up an appointment or telephone interview to gather the following information: – Expected number of containers to be moved when the facility is fully operational. – Percentage of these containers moved during the week. – Expected monthly fluctuations prior to expansion plans. – Stability of daily and hourly fluctuations throughout the year. • Collect truck count data and calculate parameters: – Based on the information obtained from the railyard operator, collect information on truck movements outside the intermodal railyard gates (as closely as can be done safely) in a month with sufficient stability. – Assemble the collected data into hourly volumes. – Calculate peak monthly volumes using the total number of containers to be moved under full operations and multiplying it by the percent of the highest month to determine an estimate of the number of containers to be moved in peak month. – Calculate the average number of containers by week by dividing the number of containers in the peak month by 4.3 (52 weeks/12 months = 4.3). This will provide the impact of the railyard expansion on weekly truck traffic. – Review truck counts to identify differences by day of week and establish the peak day of the week. – Calculate the peak daily volumes by multiplying the average number of containers per week by the percentage of the highest typical day of the week. The next element of the action plan is to identify a method for calculating peak daily truck volumes related to the railyard planning expansion. The action items for this element are the following: • Calculate parameters: – Determine peak hourly flow from hourly data (see above). – Calculate the peak hourly flows by multiplying the daily peak by the percentage of the peak hour. This will provide the impact of the railyard expansion on peak hourly truck traffic.

Playbook 149 The final element of the action plan is to share impacts as understood by the modeling staff with intermodal railyard operators to increase the opportunity for mitigating any adverse outcomes. Reflect on outcomes and additional strategies. The implementation of this example would be beneficial across several efforts, including MPO Transportation Investment Plan development, NHS connector updates, and community relations building between the railroad and the local community. Specifically, this effort would determine the need to expand a roadway based on near-term or long-term growth at the facil- ity. It would also identify which industries and companies would most benefit from a railyard expansion. Finally, this effort could identify locations of potential truck-automobile conflict on the local roadway and point the way to needed operational or design improvements on local roads. This effort would require cooperation with railyard operating staff. Establishing a work- ing relation with private-sector freight community members and having an opportunity for regular communications increases the likelihood that critical data elements could be obtained for calculating subnational commodity flows. 6.5.5 Playbook Sample Problem #5—State DOT Working with State Economic Development Agency to Enhance and Promote the Production of a Critical Commodity Determine the circumstances generating the concerns. A medium-sized state wants to know the transportation patterns of a particular commodity within the state. Formulate question(s). • How many truck trips on a typical day are generated between specific locations (origins and destinations) within the state for this commodity? Identify stakeholders. • Public Sector: State DOT. • Private Sector: Representatives from the facilities involved in marketing, production, storage, distribution, and consumption of the commodity of interest. Lay out the action plan One element of the action plan is to identify data sources: • Review Chapter 4.0: – Determine the classification code(s) associated with the commodity of interest and employment code(s) for industries involved in the production, storage, distribution, and consumption of the commodity. • Gather available reports on the industries involved in the production, storage, distribution, and consumption of the commodity of interest. • Contact and arrange a set of interviews with representatives from facilities involved in the marketing, production, storage, distribution, and consumption of the commodity of interest. • Develop a schematic of how the various facilities relate to each other (e.g., raw materials, processors, storage, etc.). • Develop a GIS map that includes the locations of the major facilities and depicts their relative capacities (e.g., small, medium, and large facilities).

150 Guidebook for Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data The next element of the action plan is to simulate commodity flows: • Identify the facilities in the facility network that are closest to each other (shortest travel time on the network). • Match origins and destinations and define “preferred service” areas for identified facilities for production, storage, distribution, and consumption of the commodity of interest. The final element of the action plan is to estimate the daily truck trips. Reflect on outcomes and additional strategies. This analysis will identify local industries that are most reliant on the transportation system. Additionally, it should identify the routes used by the target industries for state economic devel- opment agencies. The analysis can also be used as the starting point for identifying key future bottlenecks for targeted industries. Private-sector firms often have high-quality fleet information with large quantities of operations data. If possible, consider opening a dialogue with these firms to determine their willingness to share their operations data, provided these data can be suffi- ciently aggregated to limit exposure of firm-specific details. 6.5.6 Playbook Sample Problem #6—Development of a Truck Component to a COG Travel Demand Model Determine the circumstances generating the concerns. A COG wants to develop a truck component for its travel demand model. Formulate question(s). • What data resources and procedures are needed to develop an intercounty truck trip table? Identify stakeholders. • Public Sector: COG or large MPO. • Private Sector: Consulting firm with county-to-county freight flow database. Lay out the action plan. One element of the action plan is to identify available data sources: • Review Chapter 5.0. • Prepare and execute the data assembly plan. – Determine the counties to participate in model development. – Obtain a commercially generated, disaggregated, county-level freight flow database. – Obtain a commercial (e.g., Dun & Bradstreet) or state database with zip-code-level employ- ment locations, including three-digit NAICS codes with number of employees. – Download 2002 VIUS microdata (http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/vius/products.html). – Obtain estimates of farm acreage by zip code for participating counties. The next element of the action plan is to calculate the average payload: • Determine commodities in the county-to-county database. • Use the VIUS data to determine average payload for each of these commodities. • Create an average payload matrix. The next element of the action plan is to allocate county-to-county commodity flows to zip codes: • Using the number of employees by zip code for each county, allocate tonnage by county. • Using farm acreage, allocate county-to-county tonnage for agricultural industries.

Playbook 151 • Combine these two zip code allocations into two zip-code-to-county tables: – Tonnage originating in each zip code destined for each county. – Tonnage destined for each zip code originating in each county. The next element of the action plan is to allocate the zip code tonnage to TAZs: • Using employment data for TAZs (available from passenger travel models or statewide model staff). • Combining areas with geographic overlap between zip codes and TAZs. The final element is to apply the average payload matrix to the tonnage at the TAZ level; this creates a truck trip table for the intercounty model. Reflect on additional strategies. Developing the truck component to a regional travel demand model will assist in identify- ing truck-intensive locations and corridors. This, in turn, will improve the estimate of capacity constraints across the region and also identify locations of truck-auto conflict. It may also indi- cate locations and corridors that should be targeted for truck-friendly operational and design characteristics. Introducing truck trips into the travel demand modeling environment requires additional training for staff. Consider contacting agencies that have developed truck trip tables and incorporated them into a travel demand model. 6.6 Sample Game Plan Worksheet Determine the circumstances generating the concerns. (Try to be as brief as possible, capturing the critical components from the user classification information from Section 6.4.) Formulate question(s). • (Be sure to articulate exactly the problem to be solved and the necessary geographical scope of the data collection effort) • (Break questions down to more easily identify what information is being sought.) Identify stakeholders. • Public Sector: (Think strategically about the appropriate stakeholders for the geography iden- tified in the circumstances description and all the appropriate public partners that may need to be included) • Private Sector: (Try to identify exactly which members of the freight community may be stakeholders for the geography identified in the circumstances description and where exactly in the problem solving strategies their assistance may be needed.) Lay out the action plan. Break down the approach to answering each question into as many specific elements as needed. Remember, what is not included most likely will not get completed. Review the Guidebook chapters that seem to be most relevant to the circumstances and ques- tion type. For example, if it is necessary to understand the flow of commodities at the local level, research might begin with a review of the steps for conducting a local establishment survey in Chapter 3. Again, users should refer to their user classification components to determine the resources available to tackle such an undertaking. Check out Chapter 5 to see if using a dis aggregated approach might be more within the realm of the agency or available consultancies. Consider using a “hybrid” approach in which some guidance from one chapter and some from another are used.

152 Guidebook for Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data Reflect on additional strategies. Always consider any additional suggestions or “lessons learned” from other sources. 6.7 Playbook Recap and Conclusions on Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data The Playbook section of the Guidebook was designed to help users structure a “game plan” for tackling commodity flow data problems by • Understanding the nature of a problem and the types of data needed. • Understanding available capabilities and resources. • Following a systematic approach for using available data and less expensive techniques to help target new primary data collection methods. The illustrative examples should help users understand how to structure their approach and how to usefully reference the more detailed and technical descriptions provided in Chapters 2.0 through 5.0 of the Guidebook. Some users start with the introduction to the Guidebook and then skip to the Playbook section. These users may benefit from going back and reading the methods sections, paying more attention to these more technical sections. These users may also want to click on the hyperlinks to specific national databases provided in these sections to learn more about what is available in these databases and how they can be used. Users may also want to review information describing the importance of freight data, freight performance measures, and freight planning in meeting MAP-21 rules and guidance. There is no simple answer and/or approach that will satisfy all subnational commodity flow data needs. However, armed with the information provided in the Guidebook, users should be able to get the most out of the best practices available today in addressing their freight planning needs.

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TRB’s National Cooperative Freight Research Program (NCFRP) Report 26: Guidebook for Developing Subnational Commodity Flow Data explores how state departments of transportation and other subnational agencies can obtain and compile commodity flow data.

The Guidebook contains descriptions of existing public and private commodity flow data; standard procedures for compiling local, regional, state, and corridor databases from these commodity flow data sources; procedures and methodologies for conducting subnational commodity flow surveys and studies; and methods for using commodity flow data in local, regional, state, and corridor practice.

In addition to the Guidebook, two subtask reports from NCFRP Project 20--Review of Subnational Commodity Flow Data Development Efforts and National Freight-Related Data Sets and Demonstration of Application of Establishment Survey--are available only in electronic format.

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