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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22618.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22618.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22618.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22618.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22618.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22618.
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i Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................. ES-1 Need ..................................................................................................................................................... ES-2 Demand ................................................................................................................................................ ES-3 General Purpose Rural Passenger Transportation ........................................................................... ES-3 Demand for Rural Public Transportation (not market specific) ....................................................... ES-3 Program Trips ................................................................................................................................... ES-4 Small-City Fixed Route ..................................................................................................................... ES-4 Commuters from Rural Counties to Urban Centers ......................................................................... ES-4 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 1 Background ............................................................................................................................................... 1 Research Objectives .................................................................................................................................. 2 Approach to Research ................................................................................................................................... 4 Review of prior work ................................................................................................................................. 4 Discussions with practitioners .................................................................................................................. 5 Identification of data sources ................................................................................................................... 5 Methods Development ................................................................................................................................. 7 Phase I ....................................................................................................................................................... 7 Analysis and Findings in Phase I ............................................................................................................ 7 Need .................................................................................................................................................. 8 Average Daily Trip Rates for Rural Households .......................................................................... 10 Need Related to Population Characteristics ............................................................................... 10 Mobility Gap ................................................................................................................................ 22 Demand – Phase I Analyses ............................................................................................................ 23 Travel on Public Systems ............................................................................................................. 24 State Level Analysis ..................................................................................................................... 25 Program or Sponsored Trips ....................................................................................................... 32 Small City Fixed Route Service .................................................................................................... 38 Commuter Trips .......................................................................................................................... 44 Workshops .............................................................................................................................................. 48 Purpose ............................................................................................................................................... 48

ii Organization ........................................................................................................................................ 48 Workshop planning ............................................................................................................................. 48 Locations and attendance ................................................................................................................... 48 Venues ................................................................................................................................................ 49 Syllabus ............................................................................................................................................... 50 Course Materials ................................................................................................................................. 52 Results of Workshops ......................................................................................................................... 52 Data Obtained ................................................................................................................................. 52 General Public Rural Transit (Non-Program Trips) ...................................................................... 54 Program (sponsored) Trips ......................................................................................................... 55 Small City Fixed Route ................................................................................................................. 55 Commuters from Rural Area to Central City ............................................................................... 55 Findings ........................................................................................................................................... 56 Phase II .................................................................................................................................................... 57 Analysis and Findings .......................................................................................................................... 57 Need ................................................................................................................................................ 57 Demand ........................................................................................................................................... 59 Travel on Public Systems ............................................................................................................. 59 Program (sponsored) Trips ......................................................................................................... 73 Small-City Fixed Route ................................................................................................................ 76 Development of Final Demand Function ........................................................................................ 78 Correlation of variables ............................................................................................................... 78 Commuters from Rural Counties to Urban Centers .................................................................... 82 Recommend Practice .................................................................................................................................. 87 Need ........................................................................................................................................................ 87 Demand ................................................................................................................................................... 88 General Purpose Rural Passenger Transportation .............................................................................. 88 Program Trips ...................................................................................................................................... 88 Small-City Fixed Route ........................................................................................................................ 88 Commuters from Rural Counties to Urban Centers ............................................................................ 89 Demand for Rural Public Transportation (not market specific) .......................................................... 89 Future Research Needs ............................................................................................................................... 89 Appendix A – A Note on commuting data from ACS vs. LEHD .................................................................... 91

iii List of Figures Figure 1: Census Divisions ............................................................................................................................ 9 Figure 2: National Average Daily Trips per Rural Household by Age ......................................................... 11 Figure 3: Division 7 Average Daily Trips per Rural Household by Age ....................................................... 12 Figure 4: National Average Daily Trips for Rural Households by Poverty Level ......................................... 13 Figure 5: Division 6 Average Daily Trips for Rural Households by Poverty Level ....................................... 13 Figure 6: Division 7 Average Daily Trips for Rural Households by Poverty Level ....................................... 14 Figure 7: National Average Daily Trips for Rural Households by Age and Income .................................... 16 Figure 8: Average Daily Trips for Rural Households by Age and Vehicle Ownership ................................. 17 Figure 9: National Average Daily Trips for Rural Households by Income and Vehicle Ownership ............ 18 Figure 10: National Average Daily Trips for Rural Households by Age and Poverty for Households with 0 Vehicles ....................................................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 11: National Average Daily Trips for Rural Households by Age and Poverty for Households with 1 Vehicle ......................................................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 12: National Average Daily Trips for Rural Households by Age and Poverty for Households with 2 or more Vehicles ......................................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 13: Average Daily Rural Person Trips by Age ................................................................................... 21 Figure 14: Average Daily Rural Person Trips by Age and Vehicle Ownership ............................................. 21 Figure 15: Rural Annual Regular Unlinked Transit Trips per Capita, by State (2006 NTD) ......................... 26 Figure 16: Rural Regular plus Coordinated Transit Trips per Capita, by State (2006 NTD) ........................ 27 Figure 17: Rural Transit Trips vs. Rural Vehicle-Miles ................................................................................. 28 Figure 18: Rural Trips per Capita vs. Vehicle-Miles of Service Provided ..................................................... 28 Figure 19: Rural Transit per Capita vs. Rural Population Density ............................................................... 29 Figure 20: Rural Transit per Capita vs. Rural Transit per Rural Roadway Mile ........................................... 29 Figure 21: Rural Transit Trips vs. Rural Vehicle-Hours of Service ............................................................... 30 Figure 22: Rural Trips per Capita vs. Vehicle-Hours of Service ................................................................... 30 Figure 23: Template for Estimation of Individual Program Transit Demand .............................................. 37 Figure 24: Ridership vs. Revenue-Hours of Service .................................................................................... 41 Figure 25: Ridership vs. Revenue-Hours per Capita .................................................................................... 42 Figure 26: Ridership vs. Student Population (no student pass program) ................................................... 42 Figure 27: Ridership vs. Student Population (with student pass program) ................................................ 43 Figure 28: Relationship between Total Commuter Trips and Commute Trips Using Transit ..................... 46 Figure 29: Daily Trip Rates for Rural Households (NHTS, 2009) ................................................................. 58 Figure 30: Percentage of Mobility Gap Met vs. County Population ........................................................... 58 Figure 31: Comparison of Reported General Public Demand vs. Estimate Based on Report 3 Function ... 60 Figure 32: Comparison of Reported General Public Demand vs. Estimate Based on Trips per Vehicle-Mile .................................................................................................................................................................... 61 Figure 33: Comparison of Reported General Public Demand vs. Estimate Based on Trips per Vehicle-Hour .................................................................................................................................................................... 61 Figure 34: Comparison of Reported General Public Demand vs. Estimate Based on Trips per Vehicle-Hour per Capita .................................................................................................................................................... 62 Figure 35: Reported Ridership vs. Estimated Demand (function derived from workshop data) ............... 63 Figure 36: Residuals of Estimated Demand Plotted Against Service Density ............................................. 64 Figure 37: Annual Unlinked Trips vs. Vehicle-Miles (2009 Rural NTD 50% sample) ................................... 65 Figure 38: Annual Unlinked Trips vs. Vehicle-Miles (2009 Rural NTD 50% sample) ................................... 65 Figure 39: Annual Unlinked Trips vs. Population in Poverty (2009 Rural NTD 50% sample) ...................... 66

iv Figure 40: Annual Unlinked Trips vs. Population in Age 60+ (2009 Rural NTD 50% sample) ..................... 66 Figure 41: Trip Need vs. Regular Trips Served (2009 NTD) Need < 2,000,000 ............................................ 69 Figure 42: Trip Need vs. U + C Trips Served (2009 NTD) Need < 2,000,000 ............................................... 69 Figure 43: Regular Unlinked Trips Reported vs. Computed Trip Need (2009 NTD) Log Scale .................... 70 Figure 44: Annual Unlinked plus Coordinated Trips Reported vs. Computed Trip Need (2009 NTD) Log Scales; Need < 1,000,000 ............................................................................................................................ 70 Figure 45: Observed vs. Estimated for General Public Demand Function based on 2009 NTD ................. 71 Figure 46: Observed vs. Estimated for General Public Demand Function based on 2009 NTD; Observed < 30,000 ......................................................................................................................................................... 72 Figure 47: Small-City Fixed Route, Demand reported by Workshop participants vs. Estimate Using Phase 1 Function ................................................................................................................................................... 76 Figure 48: Observed vs. Estimated; Phase 1 Small-City Fixed-Route Demand Function vs. Data Reported in the 2009 Rural NTD ................................................................................................................................. 77 Figure 49: Observed vs. Estimated; Small-City Fixed-Route Demand Regression Using 2009 NTD Data ... 78 Figure 50: Estimated Fixed-Route Demand vs. Reported Demand ............................................................ 80 Figure 51: Fixed-Route Estimated Residuals compared with Reported Demand ....................................... 81 Figure 52: Fixed-Route Estimated Residuals compared to Reported Demand (Annual Trips < 100,000) .. 81 Figure 53: Percent of Commuters using Passenger Transportation – Rural County to Urban Center ....... 85 Figure 54: Residual Analysis – Percent of Commuters Using Passenger Transportation ........................... 86

v List of Tables Table 1: States included in Census Divisions................................................................................................. 9 Table 2: Daily Trip Rates for Rural Households by Census Division (2001 NHTS) ....................................... 10 Table 3: Average Daily Trips for Rural Households by Vehicle Ownership ................................................. 15 Table 4: Mobility Gap based on 2001 NHTS ............................................................................................... 23 Table 5: Rural Passenger Trips per Capita ................................................................................................... 27 Table 6: Records in Dataset Used for Commuter Trip Analysis .................................................................. 45 Table 7: Workshop Locations and Attendance ........................................................................................... 49 Table 8: Workshop Schedule and Syllabus ................................................................................................. 51 Table 9: Workshop Attendees Providing Data about General Public (non-program) Trips ....................... 54 Table 10: Correlation of General Public Ridership with Other Factors (data from workshop attendees) . 63 Table 11: Correlation of Unlinked Trips with Other Factors (National and by Census Division) ................ 67 Table 12: Correlation of Unlinked plus Coordinated Trips with Other Factors (National and by Census Division) ...................................................................................................................................................... 68 Table 13: Comparison between program trips reported by workshop attendees and program trip estimates using the TCRP methodologies ................................................................................................... 73 Table 14: Comparison between program trips reported through other projects and program trip estimates using the TCRP Report 3 methodology ...................................................................................... 74 Table 15: Correlation of Demand reported for Small-City Fixed-Route Services in 2009 Rural NTD Data vs. Other Factors .............................................................................................................................................. 79 Table 16: Correlation of Demand reported for Small-City Fixed-Route Services in 2009 Rural NTD Data vs. Other Factors .............................................................................................................................................. 80 Table 17: Correlation Analysis – Percent of Commuters Using Passenger Transportation vs. Other Factors .................................................................................................................................................................... 84 Table 18: Mobility Gap by Census Division (based on 2009 NHTS) ............................................................ 87

vi Author Acknowledgments This research was conducted under TCRP Project B-36 by Vanasse Hangen Brustlin (VHB). Mr. Frank Spielberg of VHB was the Principal Investigator. The other contributors to the project and authors of this report are Mr. Stephen Corey Pitts of VHB, Ms. Jenny Goldschmidt of VHB, Mr. Albert T. Stoddard of LSC Transportation Consultants (LSC), Ms. Tangerine Almeida of LSC, Mr. Robert Jones of LSC, Mr. Gordon Shaw of LSC, and Jeanne Erickson of Erickson Consulting. Abstract This report documents the development of methods for use by planners in rural areas and operators of rural passenger transportation systems to quantify the need for passenger transportation services and the demand that is likely to be generated if passenger transportation services are provided. The methods for estimating need are of two types – the number of persons likely to have a need for passenger transportation and the number of trips that would be required to provide persons lacking a personal vehicle with a level of mobility equal to those having access to a personal vehicle. The methods for estimating demand address four specific markets – general public rural passenger transportation, passenger transportation specifically related to social service or other programs, travel on fixed-route services in micropolitan areas, and travel on commuter services from rural counties to urban centers. The methods were developed using data from the Rural National Transit Database (2006, 2009, and 2010), the National Household Transportation Survey (2001 and 2009), the American Community Survey (various years) and the Longitudinal Employment-Household Dynamics dataset as well as data on services operated and ridership on those services provided by over 200 individuals who participated in workshops held in a dozen states in 2010 and 2011. The report documents the process used by the research team in developing the need and demand estimation methods, the findings of the analyses, and recommendations for functions to be used in estimation of need and demand.

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TRB’s Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Web-Only Document 58: Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation supplements TCRP Report 161 by describing how the research team developed the report’s need and demand estimation methods, the findings of the analyses, and recommendations for functions to be used in estimation of need and demand.

TCRP Report 161: Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook presents step-by-step procedures for quantifying the need for passenger transportation services and the demand that is likely to be generated if passenger transportation services are provided.

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