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Page 91
Suggested Citation:"Recommend Practice." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22618.
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Page 91
Page 92
Suggested Citation:"Recommend Practice." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2013. Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22618.
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Page 92

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Recommended Practice 87 Recommend Practice The methods developed and reported herein present a systematic and consistent way to assess the need for passenger transportation services in rural areas and to develop initial estimates of the demand that may be generated when service is provided. The methods make use of data that are available to planners in rural communities and to the operators of transportation services. These data include operating statistics describing the existing or planned transportation services and information available from the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Census data can be accessed at www.census.gov. The methods suggested are: Need For the estimation of need: • Number of persons in need = population residing in households with income below the poverty line + population residing in households having no personal vehicle • Trip Need = Households having no personal vehicle x Mobility Gap The Mobility Gap is defined as the difference between the daily trip rate for rural households having one personal vehicle and rural households having no personal vehicle. These rates by Census division based on the 2009 National Household Travel Survey are: Table 18: Mobility Gap by Census Division (based on 2009 NHTS) Census Division States Vehicles Available Mobility Gap (Trips per Day) 0 1 National 3.2 4.7 1.5 Division 1: ME, VT, NH, MA, CT, RI 3.3 5.0 1.7 Division 2: Middle NJ, NY, PA 3.5 4.8 1.3 Division 3: East North Central WI, MI, OH, IN, IL 2.7 4.1 1.4 Division 4: West North Central ND, SD, NE, KS, MO, IA, MN 2.4 4.5 1.7 Division 5: South Atlantic MD, DE, WV, VA, NC, SC, GA, FL 3.2 4.5 1.2 Division 6: East South Central KY, TN, AL, MS 2.7 4.1 1.4 Division 7: West South Central OK, AR, TX, LA 2.9 4.9 2.0 Division 8: Mountain ID, MT, WY, CO, UT, NE, AZ, NM 5.2 6.0 0.8 Division 9: Pacific WA, OR, CA, AK, HI 3.8 4.9 1.1

Recommended Practice 88 Demand For the estimation of demand methods are suggested for four markets - general purpose rural (non- program trips), program trips, small city (micropolitan) fixed-route, and commuters from rural counties to urban centers. An additional method is suggested for demand (all market types) for rural public transportation systems defined as those systems eligible for reporting to the National Transit Database. General Purpose Rural Passenger Transportation Non-program Demand (trips per year) = (2.20 * Population age 60+) + (5.21* Mobility Limited Population age 16 to 64) + (1.52 * Residents of Households having No Vehicle) Program Trips To estimate Program Transit Demand: Number of Program Participants multiplied by Program Events per Week multiplied by The Proportion of Program Participants who attend the Program on an Average Day multiplied by The Proportion of Program Participants that are Transit Dependent (those participants who rely on the agency for transportation services) multiplied by The Number of Weeks per Year the Program is Offered multiplied by 2 (trips per participant per event) Small-City Fixed Route Annual Unlinked passenger trips = 5.77 x Revenue-Hours of Service + 1.07 x Population + 7.12 x College Enrollment This function will work best for systems that provide 70 or fewer vehicle-hours per day.

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TRB’s Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) Web-Only Document 58: Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation supplements TCRP Report 161 by describing how the research team developed the report’s need and demand estimation methods, the findings of the analyses, and recommendations for functions to be used in estimation of need and demand.

TCRP Report 161: Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook presents step-by-step procedures for quantifying the need for passenger transportation services and the demand that is likely to be generated if passenger transportation services are provided.

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