Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan (2013)

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30 6 FUTURE DIRECTIONS BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE This chapter highlights future directions for building momentum beyond the comple- tion of the SHRP 2 C20 technical research report. This road map provides a broad direction and an organizing process for sustaining innovation in freight planning and modeling. The approach is designed to address the wide range of opportunities and needs that have been identifi ed to date and expressed broadly by the seven strate- gic objectives. The future directions build on a strong foundation of the SHRP 2 C20 project accomplishments, including • Fostering interest among the freight community based on extensive outreach and engagement of public and private freight stakeholders; • Documenting freight decision-making needs, particularly those of state DOTs and MPOs; • Piloting a successful Innovations in Freight Modeling and Data Symposium with national and international participation to spur breakthrough thinking and inno- va tive ideas; and • Developing an initial set of sample research initiatives validated by freight stakeholders.

31 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN FUTURE DIRECTIONS STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES The seven strategic objectives are 1. Improve and expand the knowledge base for planners and decision makers; 2. Develop and refine forecasting and modeling practices that accurately reflect supply chain management; 3. Develop and refine forecasting and modeling practices based on sound economic and demographic principles; 4. Develop standard freight data (e.g., CFS, FAF, and possible future variations of these tools) to smaller geographic scales; 5. Establish methods for maximizing the beneficial use of new freight analytic tools by state DOTs and MPOs in their planning and programming activities; 6. Improve the availability and visibility of data among agencies and between the public and private sectors; and 7. Develop new and enhanced visualization tools and techniques for freight planning and forecasting. ORGANIZING CONCEPT: GLOBAL FREIGHT RESEARCH CONSORTIUM SHRP 2 C20’s project leadership stressed that future directions should not be bur- dened with an inflexible bureaucratic organization or cumbersome administration. Rather than establishing a program as part of a government organization, the organiz- ing concept lays out a flexible mechanism—an agile, collaborative framework—for achieving the strategic objectives. To meet this expectation, a Global Freight Research Consortium is recommended. This consortium would promote research through funding agencies and other organi- zations having a stake in improved freight system performance and decision making, supported by enhanced analytic approaches. Participation would be voluntary, attract- ing those sectors that have a stake in the achievement of the strategic objectives. This peer-based consortium would enable, fund, and promote research, supported through national and international public organizations and private organizations whose efforts serve the freight transportation sector. The member organizations will include public domestic agencies, modal and other associations, universities, and the transportation research entities of other countries. It is also envisioned that the private sector will participate in the GFRC. Firms such as Con-way, Wal-Mart, EXCEL Logistics, FedEx, and UPS also have a stake in the research innovation that the consortium will promote. Table 6.1 summarizes the orga- nizational mix that will potentially represent the core of the consortium. This partnership will support independent research and reward innovative and compelling investigations and experiments by sponsoring an annual research competi- tion spanning various research tracks and providing a seed-grant award. Establishing and maintaining the GFRC will require careful planning, including This road map provides a broad direction and an organizing process for sustaining innovation in freight planning and modeling.

32 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN • Investigate the appropriate governance model (e.g., foundation, institute, charity) for the GFRC and complete its charter; • Perform outreach to possible member organizations to promote participation; • Obtain public and private start-up funding as appropriate; • Secure the services of a qualified consultant to assist in the early organizing and start-up activities of the GFRC, which could include developing a draft GFRC work program, organizing additional research idea competitions, holding annual competitions for grants, and facilitating the first few GFRC meetings; and • Regularly restructure and renew the governance model to ensure an entrepreneurial approach and genuine innovation. TABLE 6.1. ILLUSTRATIVE ORGANIZATIONS FOR GFRC PARTICIPATION Agency Role and Focus Area TRB cooperative research programs (e.g., NCFRP, NCHRP) Funding applied research on freight modeling and data; integrating existing separate research tracks with freight TRB, Second Strategic Highway Research Program (until March 2015) Sponsoring innovation symposia; funding development of training and outreach materials suggested by the future directions U.S. DOT modal administrations (e.g., Federal Highway Administration [FHWA], Federal Railroad Administration) Supporting pilots of advanced freight demand models U.S. DOT intermodal organizations (e.g., FHWA, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics) Improving and expanding freight data resources Academic institutions and university transportation centers Funding and conducting basic research on freight models and data collection and fusion; pooled fund consortia Associations such as the American Trucking Association Networking work and priorities of GFRC to industry and modal operators and carriers State DOTs and MPOs Piloting and application of research Private sector Improving and expanding freight data resources; identifying advances in freight transportation technology and business practices for future research The SHRP 2 C20 Technical Expert Task Group participated in a facilitated discus- sion to frame the future directions. That consensus-building exercise helped establish basic definitions and parameters for the GFRC, including what the consortium should be and should not be, as seen in Table 6.2. These important attributes are documented for reference as this initiative goes forward.

33 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN TABLE 6.2. DEFINING THE GLOBAL FREIGHT RESEARCH CONSORTIUM What the GFRC is What the GFRC is not • More innovation • Nonlinear progress • Mechanism similar to National Academies • All relevant research funders at the table • Mechanism to broadly diffuse the research agenda • Way to seek resources • Vehicle to attract participants and one or more champions • Methods to stimulate innovative ideas and research and assessment of who is capable of pursuing less conventional methods • An approach for infusing freight modeling efforts with knowledge, innovation, and capacity building • Bridge to greater public and private understanding of system development needs • Framework to broadcast information and ideas • Living, dynamic, experimental, and evolutionary • Window on other fields that might be able to provide input • Explicit—not implied—international outlook and focus • Momentum builder, viral • Bridge between private sector and public sector freight planning • A research program • A single university transportation center–run research program • Centralized • A formal organization with a governing body • A governance program • Concentration on one or a few projects that narrow the scope • A predefined end product • A Procrustean bed (an arbitrary standard to which exact conformity is forced) for ideas or processes • Hosted by an academic organization (although academic institutions will participate in the GFRC) GFRC: A WIN–WIN PROPOSITION The Global Freight Research Consortium provides an effective means for public– private–academic collaboration on freight modeling and planning with abundant benefits for all participants. Further, these benefits can be accomplished without c reating another formal organization bureaucracy. The consortium’s power is one of influence: it brings together those with a shared stake in greater innovation and suc- cessful implementation of new forecasting and analytic tools. The wins may differ by organization or sector, but they include the following: • Improved infrastructure investment from a freight transportation perspective; • Achievement of a global perspective that reflects freight’s global dimensions; • Improved performance of the transportation system over time as a result of better investment decisions;

34 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN • An opportunity to validate research from the standpoint of its utility to the freight industry; • An opportunity to gain a better mutual understanding of the analytic needs of the public and private sectors and how they intersect; • An opportunity to validate any research or tools from a practitioner standpoint; • Greater understanding of freight movement requirements and performance crite- ria and how new analytic tools reflect such key factors; and • An opportunity to shape the knowledge and skill requirements for employees in pub- lic and private organizations and to influence the instructional focus for universities. INNOVATIONS IN FREIGHT MODELING AND DATA SYMPOSIUM: A FOUNDATION FOR MOVING FORWARD The successful Innovations in Freight Modeling and Data Symposium held in Sep- tember 2010 provided a solid foundation for future efforts. The symposium’s success factors include the following: • The symposium provided a low-cost approach to generating a variety of research concepts. • The competitive nature of the symposium generated numerous excellent ideas and promising research concepts. • The symposium brought together academic, private sector, and public sector perspectives. • The symposium fostered a greater shared understanding of the issues and require- ments for improved freight modeling and planning. Future symposia may have a different focus or emphasis area, but the principles of collaboration, competition, and communication represent significant building blocks for successful symposia. The Innovations in Freight Modeling and Data Symposium was held in Herndon, Virginia, with about 50 attendees. The symposium featured 18 presentations selected to address the challenge of developing the next generation of freight demand models (symposium material is available at www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/167628.aspx). The symposium model was characterized by a combination of modeling data and ideas presented by U.S. and international practitioners and academics, followed by open and direct dialogue and debate. Major needs identified during the symposium include • A priority need to include international research addressing the macro view of global freight and its impact on multimodal freight traffic; • A need to share unfettered domestic and international research; and • A need to weave data, modeling, and knowledge (and terminology) within the public infrastructure modeling and policy view, as well as private sector logistics and distribution forecasting efforts.

35 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN In short, the successful Innovations in Freight Modeling and Data Symposium provided a strong foundation for moving forward in that it • Generated ideas; • Attracted international attention and participation; • Resulted in the identification of several promising areas of research; and • Provided a forum for public and private sector stakeholders, as well as university researchers. GFRC INITIATIVES AND FOCUS AREAS FOR ACHIEVING STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES This section briefly describes six major activities or initiatives that the GFRC would address as part of its overall approach to achieving the strategic objectives. The list is by no means exhaustive, recognizing that the ultimate activities of the consortium will be determined on the basis of the combined interests and priorities of the participants. Each of the six major initiatives is briefly defined below and is followed by a list of actions to advance that initiative. Define Priority Research Issues The GFRC will periodically issue a list of research priority areas based on submis- sions to GFRC-sponsored calls for ideas, similar to the process followed for the 2010 Innovations in Freight Modeling and Data Symposium. Defining research focus areas that reflect the decision-making needs of state DOTs and MPOs in relation to freight planning, policy making, and project development will be of particular importance. Ideally, these research focus areas will reflect a dynamic communication and consensus building between the private and public sectors, both on the GFRC and between state DOTs and MPOs with the freight industry, and with international practitioners. Actions • Establish the initial set of problems or research issues demanding attention; • Publish and widely distribute a call for ideas; and • Communicate the submission format approach standards and the incentives or awards being made available. Provide Recognition and Incentives to Spur Breakthroughs The 2010 Innovations in Freight Modeling and Data Symposium confirmed that recognition and a nominal financial award are powerful inducements for generating ideas. The future directions recognize the value in continuing to offer awards and recognition, particularly for meritorious research ideas with potentially breakthrough solutions. Nonfinancial recognition is also important. Efforts will be made to promote this process to the greatest extent possible as a way of doing business for the GFRC. Defining research focus areas that reflect the decision- making needs of state DOTs and MPOs in relation to freight planning, policy making, and project development will be of particular importance.

36 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN Actions • Establish initial sources for the first call for innovative ideas; • Consider establishing the GFRC following a foundation model to provide a basis for contributions for funding awards, prizes, and related activities; and • Over time, as funding for awards increases, establish multiple categories and mul- tiple award winners. Conduct Regular Innovation Forums Ideally, an annual forum, similar to the 2010 Innovations in Freight Modeling and Data Symposium, will be conducted for presenting innovative research and selecting the most promising ideas in freight modeling and data for further development. Each forum will publish a report that will frame the freight modeling and data research agenda. Actions • Determine the content, themes, or focus areas for periodic innovation forums; • Review and incorporate the results of the forums in relation to other GFRC activi- ties; and • Provide guidance for maximizing the dissemination of forum results and promot- ing forum participation among colleagues and peers. Promote Technology Transfer from Other Disciplines The SHRP 2 C20 Technical Expert Task Group has expressed the need to consider solutions to modeling needs from other fields that can be transferable or adaptable to freight transportation. Transferable solutions will be promoted regularly and serve as a focus for a broader outreach to various utilities and other sectors, and will also be a consideration in screening ideas. Actions • Organize a forum that would bring together presenters from other sectors to con- sider how their modeling and planning techniques might be adaptable to freight forecasting; and • Organize a competition devoted to adopting and adapting analytic techniques from other sectors. Promote an International Focus Research innovation for freight demand and analysis must necessarily reflect the global nature of freight movement. Implementation must draw on global research and promote participation from all relevant freight sectors and academic institutions worldwide.

37 FREIGHT DEMAND MODELING AND DATA IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIC PLAN Actions • Secure public, private, and academic participants from other nations through the contacts and networks of those who have already been involved in SHRP 2 C20; • Conduct an early GFRC meeting in a strategically selected country; and • Regularly showcase freight planning and modeling approaches employed in other nations. Recognize the Application of Completed Research Another important component of recognition and information dissemination for the consortium will be to periodically draw attention to the impacts and benefits of ap- plied freight modeling and data research. This activity will be particularly important from the standpoint of promoting broader implementation of successful freight ana- lytic approaches. Actions • Advance a general tracking activity to capture the benefits and experiences of those using new research approaches; and • Publish this information on a periodic basis to reflect the long-term benefit of GFRC efforts. ACHIEVING TANGIBLE PROGRESS The formation of a GFRC represents a significant institutional breakthrough with a strong potential for success. It is important to move to a start-up or implementation phase sometime within the first 6 to 12 months of the publication of the Strategic Plan to build on the momentum achieved to date through the Innovations in Freight Model- ing and Data Symposium and other stakeholder forums. Early activities should include bringing together the prospective members of the GFRC for a facilitated organizational meeting or strategy workshop. The initial focus would include presenting the business case for the GFRC and seeking participant buy- in and input on how to strengthen the consortium approach and implementation. A draft work program for the first year or two of activities should also be presented for review of those initially involved. Of particular importance is that all current research funding agencies be at the table with the other prospective partners, as consideration should be given to how freight modeling and data research will be prioritized, which promising areas of research from SHRP 2 C20 should be advanced, and what other areas of research should be identified. This early work plan development and GFRC formation should be consultant-supported, as there is no one agency or organization positioned to carry out the process on its own.