Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement (2013)

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The Second S T R A T E G I C H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD WASHINGTON, D.C. 2013 www.TRB.org REPORT S2-C20-RR-1 Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Keith M. Chase and PatriCK anater Gannett Fleming, Inc. thoMas Phelan Eng-Wong, Taub and Associates

Subscriber Categories Data and Information Technology Freight Transportation Highways Planning and Forecasting

SHRP 2 Reports Available by subscription and through the TRB online bookstore: www.TRB.org/bookstore Contact the TRB Business Office: 202-334-3213 More information about SHRP 2: www.TRB.org/SHRP2 SHRP 2 Report S2-C20-RR-1 ISBN: 978-0-309-12942-8 Library of Congress Control Number: 2013932721 © 2013 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Copyright Information Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for ob- taining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. The second Strategic Highway Research Program grants permission to repro- duce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, or FHWA endorsement of a particular prod- uct, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing material in this document for educational and not-for-profit purposes will give appropriate ac- knowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from SHRP 2. Note: SHRP 2 report numbers convey the program, focus area, project number, and publication format. Report numbers ending in “w” are published as web documents only. Notice The project that is the subject of this report was a part of the second Strategic Highway Research Program, conducted by the Transportation Research Board with the approval of the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The members of the technical committee selected to monitor this project and review this report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. The report was reviewed by the technical committee and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board, the National Research Council, or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, the National Research Council, and the sponsors of the second Strategic Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. The Second Strategic Highway Research Program America’s highway system is critical to meeting the mobility and economic needs of local communities, regions, and the nation. Developments in research and technology—such as advanced materials, communications technology, new data collection tech- nologies, and human factors science—offer a new opportunity to improve the safety and reliability of this important national resource. Breakthrough resolution of significant transportation problems, however, requires concentrated resources over a short time frame. Reflecting this need, the second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) has an intense, large-scale focus, integrates multiple fields of research and technology, and is fundamentally different from the broad, mission-oriented, discipline-based research programs that have been the mainstay of the highway research industry for half a century. The need for SHRP 2 was identified in TRB Special Report 260: Strategic Highway Research: Saving Lives, Reducing Congestion, Improving Quality of Life, published in 2001 and based on a study sponsored by Congress through the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21). SHRP 2, modeled after the first Strategic Highway Research Program, is a focused, time- constrained, management-driven program designed to com- plement existing highway research programs. SHRP 2 focuses on applied research in four areas: Safety, to prevent or reduce the severity of highway crashes by understanding driver behavior; Renewal, to address the aging infrastructure through rapid design and construction methods that cause minimal disruptions and produce lasting facilities; Reliability, to reduce congestion through incident reduction, management, response, and mitigation; and Capacity, to integrate mobility, economic, environmental, and community needs in the planning and designing of new trans- portation capacity. SHRP 2 was authorized in August 2005 as part of the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). The program is managed by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) on behalf of the National Research Council (NRC). SHRP 2 is conducted under a memo- randum of understanding among the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), and the National Academy of Sciences, parent organization of TRB and NRC. The program provides for competitive, merit-based selection of research contractors; independent research project oversight; and dissemination of research results.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. On the authority of the charter granted to it by Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achieve- ments of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, on its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Transportation Research Board is one of six major divisions of the National Research Council. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation innovation and progress through research and information exchange, conducted within a setting that is objective, interdisci- plinary, and multimodal. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 7,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transporta- tion, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. www.TRB.org www.national-academies.org

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration in cooperation with the American Asso- ciation of State Highway and Transportation Officials. It was conducted in the second Strategic Highway Research Program, which is administered by the Transportation Research Board of the National Acad- emies. The project was managed by David Plazak, Senior Program Officer for SHRP 2 Capacity. The research reported was performed by Gannett Fleming, Inc., supported by Arizona State University; Avant IMC; E-Squared Engineering; Eng-Wong, Taub and Associates; Global Quality and Engineering; Strategy Solutions; the University of Texas at Austin; Whitehouse Group; and Wordsworth Communica- tions. Keith Chase of Gannett Fleming was the principal investigator. The other authors are Patrick Anater of Gannett Fleming and Thomas Phelan of Eng-Wong, Taub and Associates. The authors acknowledge the contributions to the research from Chandra Bhat of the University of Texas at Austin, Todd Brauer and Wade White of Whitehouse Group, James Brock of Avant IMC, Richard Easley of E-Squared Engineering, Julia Johnson of Wordsworth Communications, and Ram Pendyala of Arizona State University. The research team acknowledges with appreciation the time and efforts of the TRB Visualization Com- mittee, as well as the many stakeholders who were involved in outreach meetings and participated in sur- veys. Special appreciation is extended to those who submitted papers for consideration and presentation at the 2010 Innovations in Freight Demand Modeling and Data Symposium. SHRP 2 STAff Ann M. Brach, Director Stephen J. Andrle, Deputy Director Neil J. Pedersen, Deputy Director, Implementation and Communications James Bryant, Senior Program Officer, Renewal Kenneth Campbell, Chief Program Officer, Safety JoAnn Coleman, Senior Program Assistant, Capacity and Reliability Eduardo Cusicanqui, Financial Officer Walter Diewald, Senior Program Officer, Safety Jerry DiMaggio, Implementation Coordinator Shantia Douglas, Senior Financial Assistant Charles Fay, Senior Program Officer, Safety Carol Ford, Senior Program Assistant, Renewal and Safety Elizabeth Forney, Assistant Editor Jo Allen Gause, Senior Program Officer, Capacity Rosalind Gomes, Accounting/Financial Assistant Abdelmename Hedhli, Visiting Professional James Hedlund, Special Consultant, Safety Coordination Alyssa Hernandez, Reports Coordinator Ralph Hessian, Special Consultant, Capacity and Reliability Andy Horosko, Special Consultant, Safety Field Data Collection William Hyman, Senior Program Officer, Reliability Michael Marazzi, Senior Editorial Assistant Linda Mason, Communications Officer Reena Mathews, Senior Program Officer, Capacity and Reliability Matthew Miller, Program Officer, Capacity and Reliability Michael Miller, Senior Program Assistant, Capacity and Reliability David Plazak, Senior Program Officer, Capacity Onno Tool, Visiting Professional Dean Trackman, Managing Editor Connie Woldu, Administrative Coordinator Patrick Zelinski, Communications/Media Associate

Freight traffic has been growing faster than passenger traffic on the nation’s highway net- work. As a result, freight bottlenecks have begun to develop at various points throughout the network. These bottlenecks have historically been near ports and other intermodal facili- ties. However, travel forecasts are beginning to show the effects of growing freight traffic on congestion on urban freeways, urban arterials, and some cross-country routes in rural areas. Being able to understand freight flows and forecast freight demand is taking on greater and greater importance. The second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) initiated two projects (Capacity Projects C15 and C20) designed to improve the nation’s ability to plan for increased freight- related traffic and to begin to address the growing issue of freight bottlenecks. Capacity Project C20, which was the first one, assessed the state of the practice of freight demand modeling and freight data as they relate to highway capacity planning and programming. This assessment concludes that the state of freight demand modeling has been relatively stable during the past several decades, unlike demand modeling for passenger travel, which is advancing toward activity-based modeling. The state of the practice in freight data has also been relatively stable; however, promising developments based on new information technologies may greatly improve transportation planners’ access to freight data. Examples include global positioning system data from trucks and (potentially) private supply chain data that could be aggregated for public sector planning purposes. Accelerated innovation is needed so that freight demand modeling and freight data can bet- ter serve the needs of public sector decision making regarding highway capacity investments. The C20 research report documents the process used to develop a strategic plan aimed at improving the state of the practice in freight demand modeling and freight data. The strategic plan, published as a separate web document, suggests sample research initiatives that could begin to improve the practice of freight demand modeling and freight data. These initiatives are grouped into themes such as knowledge gaps, modeling, data, and data visualization. Knowl- edge gaps are a key issue because the perspectives and business planning time frames of the private and public sectors are divergent with respect to freight. The private sector focuses on optimizing short-term supply chains and operations, but the public sector focuses on invest- ments that may take a decade or more to put in place. Bridging this knowledge gap is essential to making progress in freight capacity planning. Visualization technologies are promising for helping freight decision makers and stakeholders understand each other’s perspectives. Since the responsibility for gathering freight data and conducting freight demand modeling is spread among a large number of agencies and organizations, the C20 Strategic Plan suggests a potential model for organizing cooperation to encourage innovation and advancement. One model for advancing the state of the practice in freight demand modeling and freight data is to hold innovation symposia. A pilot effort initiated in September 2010 as part of the SHRP 2 C20 research project, the Innovations in Freight Demand Modeling and Data Symposium, is docu- mented in this report. An online compendium of the papers that were presented is included. F O R EWO R D David J. Plazak, SHRP 2 Senior Program Officer, Capacity

C O N T E N T S 1 Executive Summary 1 Introduction 2 Findings 4 Conclusions 4 Recommendations 13 CHAPTER 1 Introduction 13 Background 14 Research Purpose 14 Strategic Plan Development 15 Modeling and Data Issues in Brief 15 Need for Freight Modeling and Data Innovation 18 CHAPTER 2 Research Approach 18 Defining the Strategic Needs 18 Identifying Innovative Research Efforts 20 Developing a Feasible Approach to Freight Transportation Modeling and Data 20 Establishing a Venue for Supporting Innovation 22 CHAPTER 3 Findings and Applications 22 Freight Industry Trends Overview 23 Current Practices 32 Best Practices 39 Decision-Making Needs and Gaps 40 Research Program 43 Identification of Freight Modeling and Data Innovations 51 SHRP 2 C20 Sample Research Initiatives 52 CHAPTER 4 Conclusions and Suggested Research 52 Strategic Plan Introduction 52 Sample Research Initiatives 72 Future Directions 76 Conclusion 77 References Online version of this report: www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/167628.aspx.