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Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 1 Review of literature and practice ................................................................................................ 1 Empirical study ........................................................................................................................... 2 Nationwide analysis ................................................................................................................ 2 Firm-level analysis .................................................................................................................. 3 Case studies ............................................................................................................................. 4 Spreadsheet tool .......................................................................................................................... 5 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................. 5 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 6 2. Synthesis: The state of the art and the state of the practice .................................................... 8 Existing Federal planning and evaluation processes .................................................................. 8 Academic literature review ......................................................................................................... 9 What is agglomeration? .......................................................................................................... 9 Interviews .................................................................................................................................. 13 Practice reports and guidance ................................................................................................... 14 3. Framework for analysis, and scope of work ......................................................................... 17 Assessment: Improvements to research and practice................................................................ 17 Understanding agglomeration mechanisms .......................................................................... 17 Treating transit separately ..................................................................................................... 18 Improving data and measures of dependent and independent variables ............................... 18 Accounting for endogeneity (the chicken-or-egg problem) .................................................. 19 Distinguishing effects at different scales and for different groups ....................................... 19 Considering development context......................................................................................... 19 Empirical study approach ......................................................................................................... 19 4. MSA-level transit-agglomeration-productivity analysis....................................................... 21 Theory ....................................................................................................................................... 21 Data ........................................................................................................................................... 23 Methods..................................................................................................................................... 27 Analysis overview ..................................................................................................................... 29 Transit-agglomeration model results ........................................................................................ 29 Total rail track mileage ......................................................................................................... 30 Rail track mileage by type .................................................................................................... 34 Seat capacity ......................................................................................................................... 35
Revenue miles ....................................................................................................................... 35 Agglomeration-productivity model results ............................................................................... 36 Per capita wage and productivity models ............................................................................. 36 Industrial sub-sectors ............................................................................................................ 37 Total wage and productivity models ..................................................................................... 38 Nonlinearity .............................................................................................................................. 38 Demographic control variables ................................................................................................. 38 Linking transit capacity with productivity ................................................................................ 39 Different effects for different metropolitan areas ..................................................................... 39 Summary of results ................................................................................................................... 40 5. Firm-level Spatial Analysis................................................................................................... 45 Results ....................................................................................................................................... 46 6. Case Studies .......................................................................................................................... 48 Summary of findings................................................................................................................. 51 Los Angeles .......................................................................................................................... 51 Salt Lake City ....................................................................................................................... 52 Dallas .................................................................................................................................... 52 Methods and data sources ......................................................................................................... 53 Los Angeles â Metro Orange Line............................................................................................ 56 Current state of the transit system ......................................................................................... 56 Economic development and related policies ......................................................................... 57 Current context â employment, transportation, and land use ............................................... 59 Salt Lake City â TRAX light rail .............................................................................................. 67 Current state of the transit system ......................................................................................... 68 Economic development and related policies ......................................................................... 68 Current context â employment, transportation, and land use ............................................... 69 Dallas â DART light rail ........................................................................................................... 82 Current state of the transit system ......................................................................................... 83 Economic development and related policies ......................................................................... 83 Current context â employment, transportation, and land use ............................................... 84 7. Conclusions ......................................................................................................................... 100 Application in practice: Spreadsheet tool ............................................................................... 100 Spreadsheet tool limitations ................................................................................................ 101 Use of spreadsheet tool outputs .......................................................................................... 102
Future research ........................................................................................................................ 102 Appendix A: References ............................................................................................................. 104 Sections 1-4 ............................................................................................................................. 104 Section 6 (Case Studies) ......................................................................................................... 111 Appendix B: MSA Model Results .............................................................................................. 113 Appendix C. Review of Academic Literature............................................................................. 147 Theoretical Issues.................................................................................................................... 147 Empirical Studies ................................................................................................................... 156 Discussion and Conclusions ................................................................................................... 163 Appendix D: Summary of Interviews ......................................................................................... 167 Interviews - Sections 1, 2, and 3 ............................................................................................. 167 Accounts of Current Practice .................................................................................................. 168 Interviews- Section 5 (Case Studies) ...................................................................................... 178 Appendix E: Review of Practice Reports and Guidance ............................................................ 179 United States: Federal Level ................................................................................................... 179 United States: State, Regional and Local Level...................................................................... 180 Economic Modeling Systems ................................................................................................. 181 Sample US Studies .................................................................................................................. 183 Overview of UK Appraisal Procedures .................................................................................. 186 Deficiencies in Existing Practice ............................................................................................ 193 Appendix F: Elasticity Estimates ................................................................................................ 194 Appendix G: Marginal Productivity Changes (for a 1% increase in transit investment) ........... 255 Appendix H: Marginal Changes in Total Wages and GDP ........................................................ 281 Appendix I: Glossary of Terms ................................................................................................... 337 APPENDIX J: Documentation and Results for Task 6B ............................................................ 340 Description .............................................................................................................................. 340 Results ..................................................................................................................................... 341 Non-Sector Specific Panel Models ......................................................................................... 343 Employees per Acre by Two-Digit NAICS Sector Results .................................................... 344 Cross-Sectional Results .......................................................................................................... 348 Appendix K: MSA Data Reallocation Assumptions .................................................................. 349 APTA Transit Mileage Error Checking and Adjustments ...................................................... 349 Bus data reallocation ............................................................................................................... 354 Appendix L: Authorship ............................................................................................................. 355
TABLES TABLE 1 Transit projects and hypothesized agglomeration mechanisms ................................. 11 TABLE 2 Possible variation in additional economic benefits .................................................... 12 TABLE 3 Summary of methods used by sample studies ............................................................ 15 TABLE 4 Summary of track mile regression results ................................................................... 33 TABLE 5 Track mile, population models .................................................................................... 33 TABLE 6 Summary of rail track associations by rail type .......................................................... 34 TABLE 7 Density elasticities w.r.t. transit capacity measures, calculated at the sample mean .. 42 TABLE 8 Productivity elasticities w.r.t. agglomeration, calculated at the sample mean ............ 42 TABLE 9 Productivity elasticities w.r.t. transit capacity measures, calculated at the sample mean ....................................................................................................................................................... 42 TABLE 10 Estimated changes per unit based on mean elasticity estimates w.r.t transit capacity measures ........................................................................................................................................ 43 TABLE 11 Impacts of rail stations on employees per acre by two-digit NAICS sector, 1990- 2009............................................................................................................................................... 47 TABLE 12 Initial list of metropolitan-level case study candidates ............................................ 48 TABLE 13 Mode shares by region (1) (Please see Appendix A for numbered references in all case studies). ................................................................................................................................. 51 TABLE D 1 Interview subjects .................................................................................................. 167 TABLE E 1 Objectives and sub-objectives in UK transport appraisal ...................................... 187 TABLE F 1 Elasticities of employment density and population w.r.t. transit, specific to each MSA ............................................................................................................................................ 194 TABLE F 2 Productivity elasticities (average payroll and GDP per capita) w.r.t principal city employment density, for two track mile measures ..................................................................... 196 TABLE F 3 Productivity elasticities (average payroll and GDP per capita) w.r.t population, for two track mile measures.............................................................................................................. 198 TABLE F 4 Elasticities of employment density and population w.r.t. transit, specific to each MSA ............................................................................................................................................ 200 TABLE F 5 Agglomeration elasticities (employment density and population) w.r.t. rail revenue miles ............................................................................................................................................ 202 TABLE F 6 Total revenue miles, MSA specific elasticities (employment density and population) ..................................................................................................................................................... 204 TABLE F 7 Agglomeration elasticies w.r.t. total revenue miles ............................................... 213 TABLE F 8 Seat capacity (rail and motor bus) elasticities, employment density and population ..................................................................................................................................................... 222 TABLE F 9 Productivity elasticities (based on employment density) rail and motor bus seat capacity per capita....................................................................................................................... 233 TABLE F 10 Productivity elasticities (based on population) rail and motor bus seat capacity per capita ........................................................................................................................................... 244 TABLE G 2 Average change per 1 mile change in track miles/track miles per capita ............. 257 TABLE G 3 Average change per 1% change in rail revenue miles ........................................... 258 TABLE G 4 Average change per 1% change in total revenue miles ......................................... 260 TABLE G 5 Average change per 1% change in rail seat capacity per capita ............................ 269
TABLE G 6 Average change per 1% change in motor bus seat capacity per capita ................. 271 TABLE H 1 Marginal change in total payroll for a 1% increase in track mileage .................... 281 TABLE H 2 Marginal change in total GDP for a 1% increase in track mileage ....................... 283 TABLE H 3 Marginal change in total payroll for a 1 mile increase in track mileage ............... 285 TABLE H 4 Marginal change in total GDP for a 1 mile increase in track mileage .................. 287 TABLE H 5 Marginal change in total payroll for a 1% increase in rail revenue miles ............. 289 TABLE H 6 Marginal change in total GDP for a 1% increase in rail revenue miles ................ 291 TABLE H 7 Marginal change in total GDP for a 1% increase in total revenue miles .............. 293 TABLE H 8 Marginal change in total GDP for a 1% increase in total revenue miles .............. 302 TABLE H 9 Marginal change in total payroll for a 1% increase in rail seat capacity per capita ..................................................................................................................................................... 311 TABLE H 10 Marginal change in total GDP for a 1% increase in rail seat capacity per capita 313 TABLE H 11 Marginal change in total payroll for a 1% increase in bus seat capacity per capita ..................................................................................................................................................... 315 TABLE H 12 Marginal change in total GDP for a 1% increase in bus seat capacity per capita 326
FIGURES FIGURE 1 Distribution of central city employment density (workers per square mile) ............. 25 FIGURE 2 Distribution of urbanized area employment density (workers per square mile) ....... 25 FIGURE 3 Number of metropolitan areas by share of area occupied by central cities ............... 26 FIGURE 4 Urbanized share of MSAs ......................................................................................... 26 FIGURE 5 2002 to 2008 LA Metro Orange Line corridor change in workers at place of work by Census block group. (Source: US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employment Data) ................... 60 FIGURE 6 2002 to 2008 LA Metro Orange Line corridor change in workers at place of home by Census block group. (Source: US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employment Data) .............. 61 FIGURE 7 Los Angeles County and corridor employment by sector. (Source: US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employment Data) ...................................................................................... 62 FIGURE 8 Change in Los Angeles County and corridor employment by sector, 2002 to 2008. (Source: US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employment Data)..................................................... 63 FIGURE 9 Los Angeles County and near corridor job growth by sector, 2002 to 2008 (Source: US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employment Data) ................................................................... 64 FIGURE 10 2005 LA Metro corridor land use, San Fernando Valley Area. (Source: SCAG Land Use GIS Data) ...................................................................................................................... 66 FIGURE 11 2002 to 2008 UTA TRAX corridor change in workers at place of work by Census block group. (Source: US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employment Data) ............................... 72 FIGURE 12 2002 to 2008 UTA TRAX corridor change in workers at place of home by Census block group. (Source: US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employment Data) ............................... 73 FIGURE 13 Salt Lake County and corridor employment by sector. (Source: US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employment Data) .................................................................................................. 74 FIGURE 14 Change in Salt Lake County and corridor employment by sector, 2002 to 2008. (Source: US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employment Data)..................................................... 75 FIGURE 15 Salt Lake County and near corridor job growth by sector, 2002 to 2008. (Source: US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employment Data) ................................................................... 76 FIGURE 16 2009 Salt Lake City TRAX corridor zoning. (Source: Salt Lake City Zoning GIS Data) .............................................................................................................................................. 77 FIGURE 17 2009 Salt Lake City maximum building height, non-residential zones. (Source: Salt Lake City Zoning GIS Data).................................................................................................. 78 FIGURE 18 2009 Salt Lake City maximum building height, residential zones. (Source: Salt Lake City Zoning GIS Data) ......................................................................................................... 79 FIGURE 19 2002 to 2008 DART light rail corridor change in workers at place of work by Census block group. (Source: US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employment Data). .................. 85 FIGURE 20 2002 to 2008 DART light rail corridor change in workers at place of home by Census block group. (Source: US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employment Data). .................. 86 FIGURE 21 Dallas area and corridor employment by sector. (Source: US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employment Data) .................................................................................................. 88 FIGURE 22 Change in Dallas area and corridor employment by sector, 2002 to 2008. (Source: US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employment Data) ................................................................... 89 FIGURE 23 Dallas area and near corridor job growth by sector, 2002 to 2008. (Source: US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employment Data) ......................................................................... 90 FIGURE 24 2011 DART corridor zoning, south of Mockingbird Station. (Source: City of Dallas Zoning GIS data) ............................................................................................................... 92
FIGURE 25 2010/2011 DART corridor zoning, north of Mockingbird Station. (Source: City of Dallas and City of Plano Zoning GIS data) .................................................................................. 93 FIGURE 26 2005 DART corridor land use, south of Mockingbird Station. (Source: NCTCOG GIS Land Use Data) ...................................................................................................................... 95 FIGURE 27 2005 DART corridor land use, north of Mockingbird Station. (Source: NCTCOG GIS Land Use Data) ...................................................................................................................... 96 FIGURE 28 2005 DART corridor land use, downtown Dallas. (Source: NCTCOG GIS Land Use Data) ...................................................................................................................................... 97 FIGURE 29 2005 Downtown Dallas parking land use zones. (Source: NCTCOG GIS Land Use Data) .............................................................................................................................................. 99
