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Suggested Citation:"Executive Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2012. Incorporating Greenhouse Gas Emissions into the Collaborative Decision-Making Process. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22805.
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Suggested Citation:"Executive Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2012. Incorporating Greenhouse Gas Emissions into the Collaborative Decision-Making Process. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22805.
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Suggested Citation:"Executive Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2012. Incorporating Greenhouse Gas Emissions into the Collaborative Decision-Making Process. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22805.
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Suggested Citation:"Executive Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2012. Incorporating Greenhouse Gas Emissions into the Collaborative Decision-Making Process. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/22805.
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1This report presents the findings of research completed for the second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Capacity Project C09, Incorporating Greenhouse Gas Emissions into the Collaborative Decision-Making Process. The collaborative decision-making process (now called Transportation for Communities: Advancing Projects Through Partnerships, or TCAPP) developed by Capacity Project C01 served as the major conceptual decision-making framework for this research, including the identification of key decision points that com- prise such decision making. This report identifies where and how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption fit into this conceptual framework. This report is ac- companied by the Practitioners Guide to Incorporating Greenhouse Gas Emissions into the Collaborative Decision-Making Process (Practitioners Guide) (PB Americas et al. forthcom- ing), which provides a useful guide on how GHG emissions and energy factors can be con- sidered in different planning and decision-making contexts. In addition to describing the technical approaches and data needs that accompany GHG emissions and energy analyses, this report presents case studies that illustrate how state transportation agencies, transit agencies, and metropolitan planning organizations have been incorporating such factors into transportation planning. This report provides background research on GHG emissions and energy consumption, information that is important for understanding how the transportation sector fits into an overall policy or program for reducing GHG emissions. Up-to-date information on the types of transportation-related strategies that can be considered as part of a GHG emissions reduction program is also presented. A technical framework is described that can be used for considering GHG emissions in different transportation planning and decision-making contexts. The frame- work is organized around questions that guide analysts to the tools and data necessary to con- duct a GHG analysis. Case studies are used to illustrate GHG analyses that have been undertaken for highway and transit projects. The examined GHG-reducing strategies that are most directly under the influence of transportation agencies include • Infrastructure provision, including the design, construction, and maintenance of highway, transit, and other transportation facilities and networks; • Management and operation of the transportation system, such as transportation system pricing policies or technologies and operational practices to improve traffic flow; and • Provision of transportation services and demand management measures to encourage the use of less carbon-intensive modes, such as transit service improvements, rideshare and vanpool programs, and worksite trip reduction. Executive Summary

2Other strategies that may be influenced by transportation agencies include • Land use planning, for which transportation agencies may provide regional coordination, funding, and/or technical assistance to support state and local efforts to develop more efficient land use patterns; • Pricing strategies, such as tax and insurance policies, mileage-based pricing, or registration fees, for which transportation agencies may provide analysis support and encourage state- level policy changes; and • Provision of alternative fuels infrastructure, as well as direct purchase of alternative fuel vehicles for agency fleets. The largest absolute GHG benefits in the transportation sector are likely to come from advancements in vehicle and fuel technologies. Particularly promising technologies in the short- to midterm include advancements in conventional gasoline engines, truck engine improvements and drag reduction, and hybrid electric vehicles. In the longer term, ethanol from cellulosic sources, battery-powered electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles all show great promise for reducing GHG emissions, but only if the technologies can be advanced to the point of being marketable and cost-competitive. Most of these strategies show the potential for net cost savings to consumers. The impacts of any single transportation system strategy (system efficiency and travel activity) are generally modest, with most strategies showing impacts of less than, and usually considerably less than, 1% of total transportation GHG emissions in 2030. A few strategies show larger impacts (greater than 1%), including reduced speed limits, compact development, various pricing mea- sures, and eco-driving (driving behavior that minimizes GHG emissions); but the ability to implement these strategies at sufficiently aggressive levels is uncertain due to institutional and/ or political barriers. Despite the modest individual strategy impacts, the combined effects of all transportation system strategies may be significant: on the order of 5% to 20% of transportation GHG emissions. Transportation infrastructure investment. Both highway and transit investment are generally high cost, with cost-effectiveness estimates of $500 to $1,000 per metric ton (tonne) or more. One study has suggested that cumulative GHG benefits of highway expansion strategies may actually be negative over the 2010 to 2050 time frame when induced travel effects are considered. Based on limited evidence, bicycle and pedestrian improvements may be relatively lower cost (in the range of $200 per tonne), although the magnitude of impacts is likely to be modest. Although major infrastructure investments are not among the most cost-effective GHG reduction strate- gies, they may be worthwhile for other purposes, such as mobility, safety, or livability, or as part of a package of strategies that is collectively more cost-effective (e.g., transit with land use, bottle- neck relief with congestion pricing). Infrastructure maintenance. Virtually all studies assume that the existing system remains in a state of good repair and that lane closures, bridge postings, and major diversions and increased congestion do not occur. Unfortunately, current expenditures do not support this assumption, and it may be that the most cost-effective thing a department of transportation (DOT) can do is to keep the existing system intact. • Although rail and marine freight are considerably more energy efficient than truck travel on average, the absolute magnitude of reductions from freight mode shifting is limited because only certain types of goods (particularly long-haul, non-time-sensitive goods) can be com- petitively moved by rail. One estimate of the cost-effectiveness of rail freight infrastructure improvements falls in the range of $200 per tonne, but this is based on highly optimistic estimates of truck-to-rail mode shifts. Improved estimates are needed to assess the GHG reduction and cost-effectiveness of rail and marine freight investments to encourage freight mode shift.

3• Transportation system management strategies that reduce congestion and improve traffic flow may provide modest GHG reductions at lower cost than capacity or system expansion (typically between $50 and $500 per tonne, with lower costs if operating cost savings to drivers are included). As with highway capacity strategies, however, there is considerable uncertainty in the GHG reduction estimates for these strategies because of uncertainty regarding the magnitude and treatment of induced demand. However, the synergies needed for effective reductions should be kept in mind; any effective pricing system will need a companion intelligent transportation system component to be viable, for example, and traveler advisories can increase transit use. • Like transit infrastructure improvements, urban and intercity transit service improvements have high direct (public sector) costs, generally over $1,000 per tonne, although they provide similar nonmonetary (mobility) benefits and in some circumstances they may yield net sav- ings to travelers as a result of personal vehicle operating cost savings. The GHG benefits of any particular transit project will vary depending on ridership levels, and they could be negative if ridership is insufficient. Among other imponderables, improved transit and novel modes such as shared electric vehicles may eventually change travel behavior over the very long term. • Truck operations strategies, in particular idle reduction, can provide modest total benefits with a low public investment cost while yielding net cost savings to truckers. The most effective strategy is to require on-board idle reduction technology, which would require harmonization of state regulations. • Speed limit reductions can provide significant benefits at modest cost, although they have mobility disadvantages, are not likely to be popular, and require strong enforcement to achieve GHG benefits. • Land use strategies can potentially provide significant GHG reductions over the long term at very low public sector cost. Modest to moderate changes in land use patterns can probably be accomplished without significant loss of consumer welfare, but more far-reaching changes may not be popular and may be very difficult to achieve in the current political and economic environment. • Pricing strategies, especially those that affect all or a large portion of vehicle miles traveled (VMT), such as VMT-based fees or congestion pricing, can provide significant GHG reductions, but only by pricing at levels that may be unacceptable to the public. A 2- to 5-cent per mile fee, for example, is equivalent to a gas tax increase of $0.40 to $1.00 per gallon at today’s fuel effi- ciency levels. The technology and administrative requirements for VMT monitoring make implementation costs moderate (less than $100 per tonne to $300 per tonne or more) for most mechanisms. (Cost-effectiveness improves with higher fee levels, since the same monitoring and administration infrastructure is required regardless of the amount of the fee.) Pricing strategies will also have significant equity impacts unless revenues are redistributed or reinvested in such a way as to benefit lower-income travelers. A gas tax increase or carbon tax could be imple- mented at much lower administrative cost, but these strategies are not currently politically acceptable at a national level or in most states. • Although transportation demand management strategies have modest GHG reduction potential at moderate public cost (typically in the range of $100 to $300 per tonne), they require wide- spread outreach efforts combined with financial incentives. Furthermore, the public sector has so far demonstrated little ability to influence strategies such as telecommuting and compressed work weeks, and adoption of these strategies has primarily been driven by private initiative. • Studies have suggested that eco-driving may have significant GHG reduction potential while providing a net savings to travelers. However, these results are based on limited European experience and may not be transferable in a widespread fashion to the United States. The technical framework for conducting GHG emissions analysis presented in this report is organized around 13 key questions grouped into five basic steps of analysis, as shown in Table ES.1.

4These analysis steps and key questions are, for the most part, common across all four decision- making contexts of the TCAPP framework; that is, they can be used for long-range planning, programming, corridor planning, and environmental review and permitting. However, they might be addressed at different decision points in each context and require somewhat different analysis methods. This report describes the different methods and models that are available for these different decision points. The 13-question process is presented as an idealized process. Iterations among the various questions might be necessary, and local agencies may consider issues in a different sequence than presented here. Case studies are presented that illustrate the application of this process. Readers are referred to the Practitioners Guide for more detailed information on how these questions relate specifically to TCAPP. Some of the key knowledge gaps identified by the research team during this project include data and methodological limitations for the development of inventories and baseline forecasts, limitations on basic knowledge regarding strategy effectiveness, and limitations in tools and methods for analyzing strategy effectiveness. Table ES.1. GHG Analysis Framework Analysis Step Key Questions I. Determine information needs 1. What stakeholders should be included in GHG strategy devel- opment and evaluation? 2. What is the scope of GHG emissions analysis? II. Define goals, measures, and resources 3. What goals, objectives, and policies relate to GHG reduction? 4. What GHG-related evaluation criteria and metrics will be used? 5. What are the baseline emissions for the region or study area? 6. What is the goal or target for GHG reduction? 7. How will GHG considerations affect funding availability and needs? III. Define range of strategies for consideration 8. What GHG reduction strategies should be considered? 9. Are strategies and alternatives consistent with a long-range plan and/or other relevant plans that meets GHG reduction objectives? IV. Evaluate GHG benefits and impacts of candidate strategies 10. What calculation methods and data sources will be used to evaluate the GHG impacts of projects and strategies? 11. What are the emissions and other impacts of a particular project, strategy, or design feature? V. Select strategies and document overall GHG benefits and impacts of alternatives 12. What GHG-reducing strategies should be part of the plan, program, or project? 13. What are the net emissions impacts for the overall plan, program, corridor, or project alternatives considered and the selected alternative?

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TRB’s second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Report S2-C09-RR-1: Incorporating Greenhouse Gas Emissions into the Collaborative Decision-Making Process identifies where and how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption fit into a conceptual decision-making framework, including key decision points.

The report presents background information on the role of GHG emissions in the transportation sector, factors influencing the future of emissions, GHG emissions reduction strategies, as well as information on cost effectiveness and feasibility of these reduction strategies. It also presents case studies to illustrate different scales and institutional contexts for GHG analyses.

A web-based technical framework, Integrating Greenhouse Gas into Transportation Planning, which was developed as part of SHRP 2 Capacity Project C09, provides information on the models, data sources, and methods that can be used to conduct GHG emissions analysis. The framework is part of the Transportation for Communities: Advancing Projects through Partnerships (TCAPP) website. TCAPP is organized around decision points in the planning, programming, environmental review, and permitting processes. TCAPP is now known as PlanWorks.

SHRP 2 Capacity Project C09 also produced a Practitioners Guide that presents information on how GHG emissions can be incorporated into transportation planning when using different types of collaborative decision-making approaches and includes an appendix with detailed technical information for GHG analyses.

An e-book version of this report is available for purchase at Amazon, Google, and iTunes.

In June 2013, SHRP 2 released a project brief on SHRP 2 Project C09.

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